Brian Cashman Discusses Yankees’ Trade Deadline Plans
Yankees GM Brian Cashman says that the organization is not yet ready to decide whether or not it will sell off veteran assets, as Kevin Kernan of the New York Post reports in a series of tweets. Noting that there’s no rush with over a month to go before the deadline, Cashman also suggested that the Yanks could be both “buyers and sellers.”
What’s lacking at this stage, of course, is clarity about just how capable the team is of competing. That’s not only a question of looking at the roster on paper, but also of assessing the standings and the opportunities on the market. Certainly, a big-market club like this one can probably afford to be conservative in reaching a decision whether to give up on a season.
Despite the team’s win-always mantra, Cashman says that he would not hesitate to recommend a sell off of some kind if circumstances warrant it. The long-time general manager says that he’s “a brutally honest person,” but that the information is not yet there to reach such a decision.
New York has found itself the subject of much trade speculation, most of it centering around its triumvirate of bullpen aces. Aroldis Chapman, Andrew Miller, and Dellin Betances all would carry enormous appeal were they made available. There’s little doubt they’d shoot up MLBTR’s list of the top trade candidates if and when any or all are marketed. Another subject of discussion is veteran outfielder Carlos Beltran, who is 39 years old but is cruising along with a .283/.316/.567 slash line.
The idea of both buying and selling is a popular one among observers, but it’s somewhat interesting to hear the concept emanate from a front office. We’ve seen teams pursue lateral moves at times, though, and it’s not difficult to imagine the Yankees angling for a starter or perhaps a position player with control in a deal involving one of their quality veteran pieces.
Top 15 Trade Candidates
MLBTR’s top trade candidate series is now a month old. Honestly, I’ve been surprised at how much movement the list has required. At this stage, of course, there’s still an awful lot of guesswork. It should continue to evolve with the market starting to take shape.
Remember, we’re not just ranking players by skill alone; we’re looking at overall asset value and trade likelihood. To assess trade value, we’re starting with overall on-field ability — with a premium on the capacity to make an impact in the current season — and then adjusting for contract and market factors. With contenders’ needs in relatively sharp focus, limitations such as future contract status, age, and niche role (platoon bats, relief-only pitchers) tend to have less of a drag on value — though obviously they still matter quite a bit. With regard to the likelihood of a swap, the focus is on potential selling teams’ motivation to deal, with contract status, near and long-term roster fit, and overall competitiveness all weighing heavily. Some teams simply aren’t in a position at present where it makes sense to include their top potential trade chips, but that will evolve over the coming weeks.
Here’s this week’s list:
1. Jay Bruce, OF, Reds — He’s only increasing his offensive production as the season goes on, and Cincinnati looks to be well-positioned to finally strike a deal. It wouldn’t be much of a surprise if Bruce is traded relatively early in the process; even if not, it’s hard to imagine him wearing a Reds cap on August 2nd.
2. Jonathan Lucroy, C, Brewers — Milwaukee is putting out vibes that an extension can’t be ruled out, and the demand side of the market suggests that an overwhelming offer might be harder to find than we had thought. Still, it’d be hard for the rebuilding club to pass on a chance to cash in such a valuable asset.
3. Ryan Braun, OF, Brewers — Braun has taken a step back at the plate of late. While it’s nothing to be alarmed at, he may need to be at peak capacity to draw a top-notch return given his health issues and sizable contract. Plus, there continue to be some signs that the Brewers might not just take what they can get for their best assets. There certainly seems to be a better chance that he’ll stick around than there is for Lucroy.
4. Julio Teheran, SP, Braves — I’m moving Teheran up because he’s impressing and the starting pitching market is only looking tighter. Several top potential rental options are on the DL and/or are underperforming, while Sonny Gray — another quality, controllable arm that could conceivably be pried loose — still hasn’t re-established himself. It might take a perceived overpay, but Atlanta just may be positioned to get one.
5. Danny Valencia, 3B, Athletics — If teams are willing to buy in, you could argue that Valencia is the only impact infield bat available. His affordable contract and added year of control increase his appeal, but also reduce Oakland’s interest in finding a deal.
6. Fernando Rodney, RP, Padres — At some point, you can’t ignore the string of success. In the month of June, Rodney has allowed just four baserunners while fanning ten in 6 1/3 innings. That mirrors the rest of his season … and, of course, he has yet to allow an earned run. Rodney won’t be valued at the level of the very best relievers in the game, but he should draw strong interest.
7. Jon Jay, OF, Padres — Jay is a plug-and-go player who can handle a regular center field role or make for a versatile fourth outfielder. As a pure rental playing for a team that is in sell mode and has young players ready to step in for him, Jay seems like a likely piece to change hands.
8. Jake Odorizzi, SP, Rays — Odorizzi makes a big move into the top ten. It’s hardly necessary for Tampa Bay to trade him, of course, as he’ll only reach arb eligibility next year. But with the club falling back of late while dealing with numerous injuries, the appeal of cashing in a sturdy, controllable starter in a seller’s market is increasing. And if the team’s rehabbing starters remain on course, dealing from the rotation might not even be that painful. Especially if the Braves hold firm on Teheran, perhaps Tampa Bay could get a nice return for Odorizzi.
9. Sean Doolittle, RP, Athletics — Over his last nine innings, Doolittle has allowed just three hits (one of which was a solo home run) and two walks while posting 13 strikeouts. We’ve heard a lot of talk about some other top-tier power lefties, but there’s an argument that Doolittle is nearly as good while being much more available (and having an even more appealing contract). Injury questions remain a factor, but it’s easier to look past that when you need a gun now and this one is firing in the upper-nineties.
10. Arodys Vizcaino, RP, Braves — Vizcaino hasn’t always had premium strikeout numbers, but they are trending up this season. He has reeled off three straight solid outings since we last checked in, despite a few recent duds, so it’s not so much that he’s moving down the list as it is that the others are moving up.
11. Zack Cozart, SS, Reds — It’s not yet clear what kind of market Cozart will have, but he’s done nothing but increase his appeal all year. He’s still producing at the plate and would deliver a high-quality glove at short. Market demand remains a bit unclear, and Cinci may not be eager to move him, but clubs looking for a true shortstop probably won’t find a better option.
12. Carlos Gonzalez, OF, Rockies — I’m still betting that Colorado is in a selling position in the standings when the deadline comes around, though CarGo’s availability is another matter. The song remains the same: he’d draw huge interest if marketed, but Colorado’s approach remains to be seen.
13. Jeremy Hellickson, SP, Phillies — He’s a pure rental piece playing at a reasonable salary ($7MM), and is putting up the kind of solid and steady numbers that teams value at the back of the rotation. Hellickson has a 4.41 ERA and is on pace for around 185 innings, which isn’t terribly exciting. But he’s healthy, is carrying sub-4.00 xFIP and SIERA marks, and is showing indications of positive evolution as a hurler. If he can tamp down the home runs, at least, Hellickson could be an important piece for an organization that needs some stability.
14. Yunel Escobar, IF, Angels — Escobar won’t excite, but he puts the ball in play and has managed to maintain a high average (and with it, a strong on-base percentage) over the last two years. His BABIP is inflated, but that’s also possible because he rarely hits the ball in the air and doesn’t make a lot of soft contact. Defensive metrics don’t really like him any better at third than they did at short, where he has spent most of his career, but he’s at least serviceable all over the infield. That adds real positional flexibility that could come in handy. It’s not yet clear whether the Halos will want to deal him, though, even if they keep on a downward trajectory. Escobar can be kept with a $7MM option that would hold appeal for Los Angeles.
15. Jeremy Jeffress, RP, Brewers — The back of the list still seems like the right range for Jeffress, who isn’t an elite strikeout threat. (Though, to be fair, the dive in K/9 this year is offset by the fact that he has maintained an ~11% swinging strike rate and generates tons of grounders.) Given that Milwaukee isn’t under any pressure to deal him, since he won’t qualify for arbitration until next season, it’ll take a strong offer and he could well stay put.
Keep reading for more names that were considered …
Rangers Acquire Kyle Kubitza
The Rangers have acquired third baseman Kyle Kubitza from the Angels, per an announcement from club VP of communications John Blake. Cash considerations will head back to the Halos in the deal.
Kubitza had been designated for assignment by Los Angeles as the organization continues to churn through pitching at the major league level, leading to a need for 40-man roster spots. Texas has optioned Kubitza to Triple-A.
Heading into the year, prospect watchers generally viewed Kubitza as a top-ten organizational prospect in an exceedingly thin Angels farm. The 25-year-old had been acquired before the 2015 campaign from the Braves in exchange for left-handed pitching prospect Ricardo Sanchez.
Kubitza is hitting just .253/.349/.366 over 215 plate appearances on the year at Triple-A, and struggled in a brief taste of the majors last year. But he has shown more in the past at the plate. Obviously, Texas was intrigued enough to use an open 40-man spot to add him.
Mallex Smith Out 8-10 Weeks Due To Fractured Thumb
The Braves announced today that left fielder Mallex Smith has been placed on the 15-day disabled list due to a fractured left thumb that will sideline him for the next eight to 10 weeks. To fill his spot on the roster, the Braves have selected the contract of fleet-footed veteran Emilio Bonifacio from Triple-A.
[Related: Updated Atlanta Braves depth chart]
Smith, 23, came to Atlanta in the 2014-15 offseason’s Justin Upton trade and worked his way onto the big league roster earlier this season when Ender Inciarte hit the disabled list. However, even upon Inciarte’s activation, Smith stuck on the roster. The speedster is hitting .237/.312/.379 with three homers and 14 steals in the Majors this season and has drawn excellent marks from both Defensive Runs Saved and Ultimate Zone Rating while splitting his time between left field and center field.
Bonifacio will be returning to the Braves for his second stint, having previously spent the second half of the 2014 campaign with Atlanta following a trade from the Cubs. He’s hitting .271/.321/.319 with 22 stolen bases through 252 plate appearances with the Braves’ Triple-A affiliate this season. Presumably, he’ll see quite a bit of time in left field, though he’s also plenty experienced at second base and has more than 1000 big league innings at the hot corner, so Atlanta could bounce him around the diamond as needed.
MLBTR Chat Transcript
Click here to read a transcript of today’s live chat with MLBTR’s Steve Adams.
Examining The Yulieski Gurriel Market
Yulieski Gurriel officially became a free agent last week, making the Cuban star into the biggest X-factor of the summer trade market. For teams hesitant to give up young talent in a trade for a current MLB hitter, signing Gurriel would be the intriguing alternative. Why lose both premium prospects and money (in the form of a pre-existing contract) when you could just spend to sign arguably Cuba’s best player?
Of course, trading for a known MLB quantity is also the safer route, as Gurriel has a few question marks. He just turned 32 years old, so (while his recent numbers in Japan and Cuba were as impressive as ever) Gurriel is at best nearing the end of his prime years and at worst would have his decline phase hastened by higher caliber of Major League pitching. Gurriel wouldn’t be an immediate upgrade either, as he’d need at least a few weeks in the minors due to not playing in actual game conditions since defecting in February.
Rightly or wrongly, Gurriel’s stature may also be affected by the fact that several other high-profile Cuban players recently signed to big contracts (i.e. Hector Olivera, Yasmany Tomas, Rusney Castillo) have stumbled at the Major League level, while the likes of Yasiel Puig and to some extent Jose Abreu have struggled after hot starts to their MLB careers. The fact that Gurriel is significantly older and more experienced than almost all of these players could work in his favor, or it could work against him — a younger player could be seen as still able to be molded, whereas if Gurriel is too “set in his ways,” it might quickly become apparent that he isn’t cut out for a long stint in the bigs.
On the flip side, Gurriel’s track record is so impressive that he could be well worth the risk. He has a career .335/.417/.580 slash line and 250 homers over 5491 plate appearances, mostly in Serie Nacional, Cuba’s top league. Baseball America’s Ben Badler named Gurriel as Cuba’s top player in April 2015, citing his well-rounded approach to the plate, plus raw power, above-average third base defense and ability to be “playable” at second base if a Major League team wanted to use him at the keystone. Badler used Hanley Ramirez and David Wright as “similar value” comps, which certainly sets a high ceiling for Gurriel’s potential in the majors.
Olivera signed a six-year, $62.5MM deal with the Dodgers just before his 30th birthday. Though Gurriel will be over two years older when he signs his MLB contract, MLBTR’s Steve Adams recently speculated that Gurriel could land a similar deal in terms of average annual value, if not length. Something in the range of a four-year, $40-44MM contract seems like a fair estimate as a floor for Gurriel’s deal, possibly with incentive clauses or a fifth-year vesting option included.
Given that Gurriel has said that he would accept not playing with his younger brother “if the circumstances don’t permit it,” Lourdes Gurriel Jr.‘s market may not be too significant a factor in Yulieski’s free agency. The younger Gurriel hasn’t been declared a free agent yet, and since he doesn’t turn 23 until October 19, he still falls under international bonus pool guidelines. Assuming he doesn’t become a free agent until after the new international market opens on July 2, Lourdes’ market will be short a third of the league (the Angels, Blue Jays, Cubs, Diamondbacks, Dodgers, Giants, Rays, Red Sox, Royals and Yankees), as all of those teams are limited to signings of $300K or less due to past overages of the spending pool limits. While it’s certainly possible that one of the other 20 teams could look to sign both Gurriels, by this point it’s more likely that Yulieski will want to begin his MLB career soon and Lourdes will wait until October to maximize his payday…unless a team maneuvers around the international signing rules, as Fangraphs’ Dave Cameron hints.
Taking just the elder Gurriel on his own, however, let’s look at the teams who could be most likely to sign the 32-year-old to fill a need at the hot corner, second base or perhaps even left field.
NL West Notes: Duffy, Arroyo, Padres, Chatwood, Peralta, Vogelsong
The Giants announced after last night’s game that third baseman Matt Duffy is headed to the disabled list with a strained Achilles tendon in his left foot. As MLB.com’s Chris Haft writes, Duffy is headed for a second opinion on the injury right now, though the initial expectations don’t appear to forecast a lengthy absence for the 25-year-old. Duffy cautioned that he wants to avoid returning from the injury too soon and aggravating his Achilles, as it could lead to a more prolonged absence. Ramiro Pena and Conor Gillaspie figure to platoon at third base in his absence, writes Haft, with outfielder Mac Williamson a likely candidate to come up and tack Duffy’s roster spot in the interim. Asked whether top prospect Christian Arroyo, who can play either shortstop or third base, would be an option to replace Duffy, general manager Bobby Evans indicated that the organization feels that Arroyo requires more development time in the minor leagues.
More from the NL West…
- Dennis Lin of the San Diego Union Tribune spoke to scouts from both leagues to get their thoughts on a number of the Padres‘ trade candidates, including Fernando Rodney, Jon Jay, Derek Norris, Matt Kemp, Melvin Upton Jr., Drew Pomeranz, Wil Myers and Yangervis Solarte (injured right-handers Tyson Ross and Andrew Cashner are notably absent). One scout noted how difficult it will be to convince a team to take on Kemp’s contract in his “arthritic condition,” and a second scout called both Kemp and Upton “dead weight” despite the latter’s reasonably solid offensive numbers the past two seasons. Regarding Myers and Pomeranz, Lin received a pair of replies saying it’d be prudent to hang onto the pair of controllable pieces, while another pair called out each player’s limited track record in questioning their overall value. As one scout put it, a “lot of people are lukewarm about [Myers] across the game” at this time.
- Rockies right-hander Tyler Chatwood is among the most successful two-time Tommy John patients in history, writes Nick Groke of the Denver Post. Chatwood is currently the only two-time TJ patient that is currently making regular starts at the Major League level, and he’s pitched to a 3.15 ERA in 85 2/3 innings for the Rockies thus far in 2016. Chatwood credits his success to a dedication to studying other elite pitchers and adopting a mix of pitches that he feels could be less stressful on his arm upon returning from his second surgery. Groke calls Chatwood the ace of the Rox’ staff, though I’d respectfully disagree and give that label to up-and-coming Jon Gray; while Gray’s ERA pales in comparison, his strikeout, walk and swinging-strike rates all point to improvement on the horizon. Regardless of one’s preference between the two, though, Gray and Chatwood represent a nice pair of arms for the Rockies to deploy in their rotation moving forward.
- D-backs outfielder David Peralta, who landed on the disabled list with a back strain yesterday, is getting an MRI today according to Nick Piecoro of the Arizona Republic (on Twitter). Neither Peralta nor the team believes the injury to be too serious in nature, so the test would appear to be fairly precautionary in nature.
- Pirates righty Ryan Vogelsong, who spent the 2011-15 seasons with the Giants, told reporters yesterday (including Henry Schulman of the San Francisco Chronicle) that he would have loved to return to San Francisco but understood why the team elected not to pursue him this winter. “I kind of knew they were probably going after some front-line guys for the rotation to make it better and give them more innings and take a load of the bullpen,” Vogelsong explained. “It was never my intention to make it seem like I didn’t want to go back there. I would have loved to go back. It was a matter of a team progressing.” Vogelsong is currently recovering from a truly frightening eye injury suffered when he was hit in the face by a fastball. As he explained to Schulman, he feels fortunate that he’s able to see out of his left eye and is currently seeing with 20-20 vision and making throws of up to 90 feet.
Rays’ Mikie Mahtook Suffers Fractured Left Hand
The Rays were burdened by yet another long-term injury in last night’s game, as Marc Topkin of the Tampa Bay Times writes that outfielder Mikie Mahtook suffered a fractured left hand when he was hit by a pitch and could be on the shelf for up to two months as he recovers. While Mahtook isn’t exactly a household name, he’s a former first-round pick that had been seeing quite a bit of playing time for the Rays with Kevin Kiermaier, Steven Souza and Brandon Guyer all currently on the disabled list. Now, he’ll join his teammates there and likely remain on the DL longer than any of Tampa Bay’s currently injured outfielders.
[Related: Updated Tampa Bay Rays depth chart]
Mahtook, 26, was hitting just .154/.200/.185 through a fairly tiny sample of 70 plate appearances, so the Rays won’t be losing one of their more productive bats due to this injury. However, the former No. 31 overall pick flashed his upside in his MLB debut last season when he batted .295/.351/.619 in 115 trips to the plate as a late-season call-up with the Rays. While it’d be overzealous to expect production along those lines again from Mahtook, some form of middle ground between last season’s excellence and this season’s futility is probably Mahtook’s true talent level. He’s batted a combined .241/.293/.453 in that time. When paired with his ability to play all three outfield positions, that makes him a useful piece even if he’s not necessarily a starting-caliber player.
Looking at the bigger picture, Mahtook’s loss further thins the outfield depth for a Rays team that presently sits 8.5 games out of the division lead at 31-37. While it’s too early to deem the Rays to be sellers — manager Kevin Cash told Topkin after last night’s loss the organization “believes … we can kind of right this ship” — they are currently facing an uphill battle to get back into contention. The presence of an entire starting-caliber outfield on the disabled list is further compounded by a short-term injury to surging slugger Steve Pearce, who, as Topkin notes, will miss a few days with a hamstring injury sustained in last night’s contest.
As the aforementioned depth chart notes, the Rays look lined up to rely upon Corey Dickerson, Desmond Jennings and Jaff Decker in the outfield for the time being, though perhaps the versatile Brad Miller could see some time in the outfield as well, with Nick Franklin getting another look in the Majors (my own speculation).
Braves Agree To Over-Slot Deals With Picks No. 2-6
JUNE 21: The Braves have also agreed to a $1.5MM signing bonus for No. 76 pick Brett Cumberland, MLBTR has learned (Twitter link). Cumberland, a catcher and draft-eligible sophomore out of Cal, receives a bonus that lands $661K over his slot value of $839,100. He ranked in the Top 100 draft prospects from BA, ESPN and MLB.com, with each praising him as one of the more advanced college bats in the draft but questioning his ability to stick behind the plate. Additionally, Callis reported over the weekend that fourth-rounder Bryse Wilson, a high school right-hander our of North Carolina, agreed to a $1.2MM bonus that represented a deal that was $653K over slot (Twitter link).
That means that the Braves’ second, third, fourth, fifth and sixth selections in the draft have combined to receive bonuses that exceed their pool allotments by a total of about $3.9MM. Atlanta also went $300K over slot for 11th-round pick Matt Bowland, as Callis tweeted last week. That’s a total of $4.2MM in excesses, although the Braves did save approximately $2.5MM by agreeing to a reported bonus of “about” $4MM with No. 3 overall pick Ian Anderson. And, as Callis and Jonathan Mayo have been tracking at MLB.com, the Braves have saved $134,600 on fifth-rounder Jeremy Walker, $281,600 on sixth-rounder Matthew Gonzalez and $219,700 on seventh-rounder J.B. Moss. Atlanta also has a string of college seniors at picks 8-10, and college seniors will often sign for about $10K.
The Braves entered this year’s draft with a $13,319,600 pool and bolstered that figure when they acquired a Competitive Balance pick in the Brian Matusz trade, bringing their total allotment to $14,158,500. They’ll be able to exceed that sum by about $797K without going into the penalty bracket that would force them to lose a future first-round pick. With the over-slot deals to their second through sixth picks as well as their 11th-rounder, the Braves have currently agreed to $13,760,000 in total commitments, placing them about $1.1MM shy of the threshold at which they’d lose a future first-round pick.
Trade Market Notes: Mets, Red Sox, Marlins, Astros, White Sox
The Mets have dealt with injuries and on-field struggles of late, and COO Jeff Wilpon says that the organization may not wait until August 1st to make a move, as Newsday’s Laura Albanese reports. “I think we might need to do something before [the deadline],” Wilpon said. “The deadline is still four, six weeks away. We’ve got to start playing better baseball now.” We’ve heard chatter about the club possibly going after free agent-to-be Jose Reyes, but it’s fair to wonder whether a more substantial improvement is preferable. The infield seems like the obvious place to target for the Mets.
Here are some more high-level notes as the summer trade market takes shape:
- Red Sox president of baseball operations Dave Dombrowski indicated that he’s still feeling out the trade market, as Evan Drellich of the Boston Herald reports. “[A] lot of times the conversations now are just as much an informational, feeling out [type],” he said. “And I think it’s also a situation where a lot of clubs really haven’t decided what they’re going to do yet.” While there are some obvious sellers, he noted, not many teams that came into the year with hopes of contending are now prepared to change course. “It’s important for us to stay in contact with those organizations so we know when they shift their focus,” said Dombrowski.
- The Marlins don’t intend to trade from their major league roster to bolster their rotation, Ken Rosenthal of FOX Sports reports. Unsurprisingly, that means that Miami won’t part with young outfielders Marcell Ozuna and Christian Yelich, who have drawn interest. With little of clear interest in the farm system, Rosenthal suggests that the club could look to take on some cash as a way of facilitating a trade — with owner Jeffrey Loria willing to boost the payroll if there’s a playoff chase to play for.
- Astros GM Jeff Luhnow suggests he’s preparing for the trade deadline without a clear wish list, as Brian McTaggart of MLB.com tweets. “I like our team right now,” said Luhnow. “There’s no obvious hole. Clearly we’re going to talk to other clubs and be look out for upgrade.”
- All eyes have been on the White Sox, who have put out word that they are open to improve sooner than later. GM Rick Hahn addressed concerns with both the roster and the field staff, as JJ Stankevitz of CBS Chicago reports. The executive declined to comment on any specific personnel, including skipper Robin Ventura, and stressed that he won’t get caught up in short samples. “You try to look at the entirety of the work,” said Hahn. “… I think it’s natural to look at areas where you can get better, but any decisions are made based upon the entirety of anyone’s performance, based on not just the snippet of five or 10 days or the length of a season or past career.” Hahn continued to emphasize that the organization is looking to add, rather than thinking about fall-back plans. “We very much believe the talent is there to be in the thick of things come October,” he said. “We need to get it turned around fairly quickly, though, so we can continue saying that and reinforce our notion, our believes in ourselves that this team has the ability to contend.”