After months of debate surrounding emerging Blue Jays ace Aaron Sanchez, the team has made the decision to deploy a six-man rotation featuring Sanchez, Marcus Stroman, J.A. Happ, Marco Estrada, R.A. Dickey and newly acquired Francisco Liriano, per Toronto GM Ross Atkins (via Sportsnet’s Shi Davidi).
As Davidi points out, the solution isn’t perfect, as even with a six-man structure, Sanchez figures to make another eight starts or so, which would push him to 180 innings even if he tossed only five innings per outing. That wouldn’t factor in the postseason, either, and an ideal scenario for Toronto would include Sanchez starting well into a deep postseason run. It’s a similar conundrum that the Mets faced with Matt Harvey last season, though Sanchez isn’t coming back from Tommy John. Rather, he’s simply looking at a massive increase in his workload after throwing a total of 133 1/3 innings in 2014 (a career high) and an even smaller total of 102 innings in 2015. President of baseball operations Mark Shapiro recently told the media that there’s “no scenario” in which Sanchez would be allowed to pitch 220 to 230 innings, and indeed Atkins said that the team plans on avoiding such an extreme spike in his innings.
Atkins suggested to reporters that in addition to the six-man rotation, the Jays will be able to leverage expanded rosters in September in order to perhaps further limit Sanchez’s innings in advance of what the Jays hope will be a deep playoff run. He also implied that Sanchez’s ability to continue bouncing back from starts will impact the plan for the remainder of the season, stressing the importance of remaining “fluid and flexible” in this type of situation. “We have all the math, of course,” said Atkins in reference to various innings projections for Sanchez. “Like I said, we’ll get into an area, hopefully we get into that area. He feels good, he’s recovering well, we’re not seeing fatigue in any way and (if) we get into an area that’s unprecedented, we’re hopeful that happens.” Davidi goes on to report that the Blue Jays have been extensively studying dramatic innings increases from years prior, specifically examining Noah Syndergaard and Jon Lester, among others.
Of course, keeping both Sanchez and Liriano in the rotation comes with other roster construction implications. With six starters on board, the Blue Jays will have to either utilize a three-man bench or a six-man bullpen between now and Sept. 1, when rosters expand. The former of those two options is the current alignment, as can be seen on the Blue Jays’ depth chart, leaving the club with a bench consisting of light-hitting Josh Thole, defensive specialist Darwin Barney and a resurgent Melvin Upton Jr. With Troy Tulowitzki attempting to play through a chip fracture in his thumb and Jose Bautista fresh off the DL due to a foot injury, the possibility exists that the Blue Jays could be stretched thin on the position-player front, though rookie right-hander Danny Barnes could be optioned back to Buffalo should the need for an additional bench player arise.
In 139 1/3 innings this season, the 24-year-old Sanchez has pitched to an American-League-leading 2.71 ERA with 7.6 K/9, 2.6 BB/9 and a 57.5 percent ground-ball rate that trails only his own teammate, Stroman, among qualified Major League starters this season.
I know it’s a huge if, but if liriano can figure it out up here, that is one amazing rotation. Stromans been good over the past month, and even dickeys been serviceable lately.
Do not hold your breath. Was waiting for the turn around to come in Pittsburgh but it never came. His last couple of starts were beyond bad
Not as big of an “if” as you might think. Before arriving in Pittsburgh in 2013, Liriano had 4 straight years of +5 ERA, then suddenly his ERA dropped to 3.02, and 3.38 the following year. What’s interesting is Russell Martin played for Pittsburgh in 2013 & 2014.
Granted, this could be chalked up to a new team (and thus, new defense behind him) but his FIP (Fielding independent Pitching) also dropped in 2013 from a poor 4.51, to an awesome 2.92.
I’m not saying that Russell Martin is a miracle worker. But he does have a known history of improving pitching staffs.
Take it or leave it
Fairly big if. He had the same 3.38 with Franciso Cervelli, another great pitch framer as well. Stewart backed up both Martin and Cervelli for Liriano as well. Also a very good pitch framer. Had both of those guys till the Allstar gam.e. Frankie looked ugly all year and not just in games that Cervelli and Stewart caught.
But there is more to being a good catcher than pitch framing. You also have to take into consideration things like leadership as well as well as other aspects like pitch selection and the ability to spot minute issues in a pitcher’s mechanics. Of course, I’m only going on his past history and am speculating based on it. The proof remains to (hopefully) be seen.
Amazing rotation? Seriously? If the Mets rotation was healthy, they’d be considered an amazing rotation. The Nats, too. The Jays? What world are you living in?!?!?!
Probably a world where 3 of their starters are in the top 6 in ERA in the AL, and a 4th starter (Stroman) appears to have returned to the form everyone expected of him in the last month after making some mechanical adjustments. That world is the real world by the by.
A world where 2 of their pitchers have an ERA under 2.95, one has one under 3.10, and their supposed ace, is the 4th best pitcher this year. Give me the Indians and mets rotations over ours, but it easily a top 5 in the league
Coming into Friday’s game, the Jays rotation was #1 in ERA and IP in the AL. That is a thing, my friend.
Anyone else have random stuff pop up in the mlbtr search bar? This keeps happening. “life is strange ps4+filetype:log” just popped up in there. something random like that happened yesterday too
I haven’t noticed anything of the sort, but I’ll bring it to our development team’s attention.
Thanks Steve
I’ve also noticed that the MLBTR app is no longer working for me on the iPhone 5s. It just displays a blank, white page under the logo and banner at top. Something else to pass along perhaps.
@krillin You may want to run a Malwarebytes scan on your system just to be safe
lol I hope its not malware, I am on a government computer
and your time on here answers a lot of questions about the state of our government… lol
Lunch break
Thank you for saying that, this is almost more truthful than funny, but still funny.
Krillin did not say how long said lunch break was!! Truthful but… !!
Yes, on mobile, through Internet not app, terrible, keep getting redirected, and app and add pop ups
I dunno if a 6 man rotation really has worked at any time though. What could happen is you throw every pitcher out of their routine and they do worse. It is definitely a high risk high reward maneuver.
I’m surprised that in this era of 100% effort on every pitch that more teams don’t try a 6 man rotation. In the “old days” pitchers paced themselves more. But now it’s a power game on the mound and at the plate.
A lot of teams don’t have 5 capable starters much less 6, even if you bank on the back end guys improving based on being healthier and well rested you would be losing starts from the guys at the top of your rotation, I don’t think many teams would gain value from it most would probably lose value from losing those extra TOR starts.
Look at the Braves right now, they don’t even have a clue who their 5th starter will be Saturday…
And as of right now they are running out a rotation that consists of Mike Foltynewicz, Tyrell Jenkins, Rob Whalen, and Joeel De La Cruz….
Unfortunately, Roberto Hernandez, fomerly Fausta Carmona might be their only option…
They still have Wisler, Weber, John Gant, Casey Kelly, and Chris Ellis but Wisler, Kelly, and Ellis cannot make that Saturday start because of timing issues, Weber was just sent down and has to wait 12 days, and Gant is still finishing up a rehab assignment, in that order…SMH ….Tough times for the Braves, and it is a shame because their bats have actually been really improving over the past 15 games!!
It just goes to show the old saying here is definitely true!! You really can never have enough pitching!!
I just cannot wait until their youngsters make it up to the bigs…and watch out for AJ Minter as their closer of the future…dude is LIGHTS OUT!!
Luckily their draft this year, I think the Braves really hit on 4 young HS arms in Ian Anderson, Joey Wentz, Kyle Muller, and Bryce Wilson!!! But yeah it will definitely be awhile before they are ready, if they pan out…
Lucas Sims, Max Povse, and Sean Newcomb look to be the next three prospects who might get a chance, but that’ll probably be at some point next season considering all three are still in AA…
The jays are losing three or four of their main players this winter to free agency. Please PLEASE just go for it jays and forget this 6 man staff crap. Liriano has an almost 6 era in the pitching friendly national league, he certainly isn’t going to replace anyone who is healthy in the jay rotation
I’m with tuna411, just go for gold and ignore all the rest. Pitchers get injured regardless of their innings count. It means little to nothing.
If they do move to a six-man pen, they can probably use Dickey for a 2-inning relief role on his third day of rest. Might even consider using Happ for a few outs in an emergency situation too, since he’s the only one of that list of starters who has no lingering injuries and no innings limit issues at all.
But he’s pitching below his FIP so he’s going to regress and be crappy and blah, blah, blah.
Most analytics I am a fan of. I have not been impressed by FIP. may just be me.
There’s always xFIP and SIERA.
Interesting how baseball has changed in just a few decades. Blyleven pitched 164 innings at 19, then went on a six year stretch where he was never below 275 IP. Seaver pitched one year in the minors–210 IP, then over 200 for 14 consecutive years in the majors. Obviously these pitchers were handled differently and paced themselves.
Definitely, but the crazy thing is they have 12 to 16 year olds pitching year round for their schools and travel ball….
Apparently it is okay for a kid’s arm to fall off, but once someone has to pay you, then and only then do they care about the health of your arm as a pitcher!!!
It is truly a shame, and idk about everywhere else, but in Georgia it is state-wide that these kids are getting their arms pushed all year!!
@bravesfann88 I coach my 11 year old son in both rec and travel ball and although he’s a pretty good pitcher I don’t allow him to throw many games at all. Most of his throwing is on the side refining mechanics and learning location. This spring he played lacrosse instead of baseball to try something new and give his baseball muscles a rest.
On my teams I try to have as many kids pitch as possible and not rely on one or two pitchers like a lot of other teams do. The funny thing is that parents get upset that I won’t let their kid to pitch on consecutive days or throw 6 innings / 80+ pitches in a day.
What I’m getting at is that there are a lot of coaches like me that limit pitch counts between rec and travel in season as well as pitch counts throughout the year, but ego driven parents will shop for teams so their 10 year old can throw 100 innings in a year. Parents ruin young arms just as much as some abusive coaches do.
Good call on the parent thing
Like in all sports, Their 10-12 year old kid is a budding start and are already playing for the scholarship. You never know when that college coach is watching the kid play. Unbelievable how these parents think. Many parents burn their kids out before the even hit high school. Some of these kids really end up losing the love of the game that they are playing and quit pushing to play their best when it really does count because the thing inside that drives them to play tends to go away if the game becomes too much of a job.
The need for speed (or more precisely, velocity) makes me wonder how fast the best pitchers from the era you referenced would have been throwing and whether any would have been even more successful if they’d had the same sports science and throwing regimens mandated by college coaching staffs and professional teams today.
@ mike156 How hard did Blyleven throw though? I remember him with the Bucs and had that huge curve but was not busting the pitches up there in the process from what I remember. That could have a huge difference in the longevity of the arms. Plus as bravesfan88 said, all these guys have thrown a ton since the were young kids. LL, Travel leagues, High School , Legion ball, the College and summer leagues for many. Who knows how much they throw if they come from the Caribbean, Central or South America? That all catches up to these guys eventually.
That’s a good question. Looking at strike-outs (because that’s what I have). Carlton pitched 52 MLB innings at 21, then jumped to 193, then went on a 15 year tear where he never pitched less than 190 (in a strike year) and led the league in IP five separate seasons–and in K’s those five seasons. Seaver led in K’s five times in eight years. Blyleven stuck out 219 or more 6 consecutive seasons. There are an ample number of examples of pitchers who ramped up IP very quickly, and sustained it for a long time with a high degree of productivity. Maybe there weren’t as abused when younger, and maybe they approached the games differently when they were expected to go deep into games.
Not a good idea, no one is comfortable in pitching in a 6 man rotation because they haven’t done it before.
If there ever was a use for the Dodgers’ SP shuttle between AAA and the ML roster, this may be it. Sanchez could take every other turn in the rotation with options to AAA immediately after each August start and a simulated game at the appropriate moment in each mandatory 10-day stay on the AAA roster.
Could at least give the Jays another month of the flexibility that the expanded roster will afford in September. That said, I think the jury is still out on whether going to a six-man rotation is best for the Jays under the circumstances.
It wasn’t too long ago that no one was used to a 5 man rotation, right? Around 30 years ago it was common to have 4 man rotations. It is possible to change it up
30 years ago, how many pitchers thew 95+ heat and 90+ breaking stuff? “Back in the Day” many pitchers threw in the 80s and your staff was good if you had one guy that sat in the 90s and great if you had 2 guys who sat in the 90’s. Now everyone who is anyone sits in the mid 90’s and the great ones sit in the upper 90’s and hit the 100’s on occasion. Don’t think arms are meant to do that for 200 pitches and to repeat that over several years.
It’s amazing these pitchers in this day and age can actually throw 150 innings, as babied as they are.
Sanchez, Stroman, Estrada and Happ are all setting new career highs for innings pitched this season. Only Dickey has pitched 200 innings before.
Didn’t they already have that? Replace Liriano with Hutchinson.