Back on August 16, I posted a forecast of which free agents could receive qualifying offers from their teams this offseason. Michael Saunders was listed as one of my “easy calls” to receive the one-year, $16.7MM contract, with one important caveat. Saunders, at that point, had been in a month-long slump, so I noted that the Blue Jays could re-consider issuing Saunders a QO if his slump continued, given his lack of track record as an upper-tier hitter.
Well, fast-forward six weeks and Saunders’ bat has yet to wake up. In 27 games between August 16 and September 23, Saunders is hitting just .207/.286/.427 with four homers over 92 plate appearances. In the second half altogether, Saunders has contributed a .179/.284/.375 slash line over 195 PA, though eight of his 24 homers on the season have come since the All-Star break.
So while Saunders has retained some of his pop (he has a respectable .196 isolated slugging mark in the second half) since the Midsummer Classic, the rest of his batting numbers have fallen off the table. This has made Saunders a sub-replacement level player for the Jays, since if Saunders isn’t hitting, he can’t contribute much on the basepaths or as a corner outfielder. An above-average baserunner early in his career according to Fangraphs’ BsR metric, Saunders has unsurprisingly been subpar in that category since tearing his meniscus during a freak Spring Training accident in 2015 and subsequently missing much of that season due to knee problems. It’s fair to guess that the knee injury has also contributed to Saunders’ poor defense, as his minus-9 Defensive Runs Scored and -12.1 UZR/150 this season in the outfield is well below his pre-meniscus tear career standard as a decent left fielder and a very good right fielder.
As it pertains to Saunders’ free agent stock, teams will certainly think hard about offering a big multi-year deal to a player who may already be turning into a bat-only type as he enters his age-30 season, especially when his bat may not be that potent. If Saunders and his representatives at Meister Sports Management feel that these question marks and the QO-attached draft pick compensation hanging over his free agency could limit his market, he could accept the Jays’ qualifying offer and aim for 2017 as that true breakout year where he is both healthy and consistently productive.
If the Blue Jays think there’s a chance Saunders accepts a QO, would they be comfortable offering it? The Jays may be wary committing $16.7MM to a player with Saunders’ limitations. There’s also the fact that Edwin Encarnacion and Jose Bautista are also free agents this winter, and both will certainly be issued qualifying offers. Encarnacion will definitely reject his, while there’s a chance Bautista could accept given his disappointing and injury-plagued season. If both signed elsewhere, the Jays would probably welcome Saunders accepting a QO just so they could retain one important bat for the lineup. Encarnacion’s departure would also free up the designated hitter spot for Saunders and other veterans in the Blue Jays lineup. If fatigue has been a factor in Saunders’ second-half slide, regular DH at-bats would help keep him fresher and perhaps more productive over all 162 games.
This all being said, let’s not forget just how tremendous Saunders was in the first half of 2016. Only 13 players in baseball topped Saunders’ first-half wRC+ of 146, and the outfielder hit an impressive .298/.372/.551 with 16 homers over 344 PA. Saunders had long been rumored to have middle-of-the-order bat potential, and it was all clicking for him in the first 3.5 months of the season.
Given that teams are increasingly preferring to be flexible with their DH spot rather than have one designated hitter, a team with holes at both DH and corner outfield would certainly consider Saunders to rotate between both positions. As mentioned earlier, 2017 will be Saunders’ age-30 season, which gives him an age advantage over some of the other notable corner outfield/DH types on the market this offseason. Teams may be more willing to surrender a draft pick for a player who could still be coming into his prime, so it’s quite possible that Saunders will find a nice contract elsewhere and the Jays can recoup a draft pick via the qualifying offer.
Far from being an “easy call” anymore, Saunders now stands as one of the most intriguing QO cases of any free agent this winter, particularly given how his situation could influence how the Blue Jays approach re-signing Encarnacion and/or Bautista. How do MLBTR readers feel? (link for app users):
An .856 OPS beats out some of bat-first guys who declined QOs in the past. Guys like Melky and Cuddyer come to mind.
Even if he gets one, the Jays have money off the books, and are losing their best 2 hitters on top of possibly losing Saunders.
Haha, no.
This is a tough one. If you do and he accepts (which I doubt he would), they’d be paying a bit too much for him, but hed still be valuable.
I think if they offer it he thinks about it for exactly two seconds and takes it. No way is he gonna get that on the market.
It’s not about getting 16 million a year though, it’s about getting more years for less of an annual salary
why wouldn’t they? They’re losing Bautista and encarnacion potentially leaving as well and they sure as hell aren’t taking a QO. Plus the new CBA could change the system anyways so this may all be moot soon
I believe the CBA expires after the QO deadline.
It does, but there has been talk about trying to finalize the new CBA before then, in which case it could include a workaround. Not saying this will happen, just that it could.
Is this April 1.? I thought the no’s would be at 90 per cent plus. A player with a history of injuries who can not hit left handers.
He’s been bad lately, but he’s raked off lefties this year, I think at least 10 of his homers are against them
Actually, its 8 but they’ve come in just 118 PA / 104 AB vs. 16 in 424 / 372 vs. RHP
Seems questionable to say he can’t hit LHP, especially this year when his line is .250 .333 .460 vs RHP and .279 .364 .587 vs LHP. His career splits are .237 .316 .408 vs RHP and .234 .295 .393 vs. LHP, which doesn’t seem like a particularly large difference.
Last year the Jays offered Estrada a QO and then signed him to a 2 year deal. They might do the same with Saunders. The loss of a draft pick cuts out some other teams interest and allows you to work out a fair deal. If not, he accepts and is overpaid a few million for 1 year or he leaves and you get a draft pick.
I think it depends on what free agents are available for less than the QO…My thinking there is probably some and you can forfeit the draft pick in an effort to sign a strong 1st basemen to replace EE
How closely have you looked at the upcoming free agent class to see who will actually be available that fits your scenario?
I don’t understand the people who think he wouldn’t take the QO? a guy with injury history who’s struggling in the second half AND who would require forfeiting a draft pick? The Jays have leverage here if they offer him the QO but I still think the sane answer is no. he had a great first half but no way I’d offer him 16+ for one season for that. 2 years 24 tops and I bet he would jump.
There is no such thing as a bad 1 year contract though. If he accepts it, he’ll be overpaid by a couple of million, and that’s no big deal, especially if Rogers loosens the budget a little
no I understand that but there are people here who don’t think he will accept which is nuts to me.
Estrada was in a fairly similar situation – career year, only a couple of years older, first-time FA, etc. He didn’t take the QO and ended up signing pretty quickly for 2/$26mm. I’m somewhat inclined to think Saunders would take it, but I don’t think it’s a lock by any means.
That his situation was deemed worthy of a poll suggests MLBTR doesn’t think it’s a lock either.
estrada wasn’t coming with the same injury history nor the second half collapse Saunders is. plus if a pitcher got 2 for 26 why would Saunders get more? he’s a 2/22-24 tops guy if the Jays offer it.
Agreed Estrada’s not a perfect comp, but he’s not an awful one either. He didn’t have a record of injuries, but he was only one season removed from giving up the most HR and had never topped 150.2 IP or 23 GS before.
One possible reason Saunders might get more is that Estrada may well have under-sold himself. Another is that he’ll be entering his age 30 season, two younger than Estrada. Again, I’m not saying it will happen, just that I’m not fully convinced it won’t.