After the season concludes, we’ll be looking at every team in the league in depth with MLBTR’s annual Offseason Outlook series. For the time being, though, we’re taking preliminary big-picture looks at what some of the non-contending clubs will need to focus on as part of our Three Needs series.
Let’s jump to the National League Central to look at what the rebuilding Reds will be looking to accomplish this winter, though the usual “three needs” designation may not quite fit in this case. While the Reds have quite a few needs, they theoretically already have the young talent on hand to address at least some of these problems — now it’s just a matter of which youngsters emerge, fall back or are still a year or two away.
1. Find regular roles for Jose Peraza and Dilson Herrera. These two are slated to be Cincinnati’s shortstop and second baseman of the future, and the future could begin now if incumbents Zack Cozart or Brandon Phillips are dealt. Peraza has also seen time in left and center, so there’s some value in using him around the diamond as a Ben Zobrist-esque super-utility player in order to get him in the lineup virtually every day, if a singular position can’t be opened up.
Cozart received a lot of interest at the trade deadline in the wake of his above-average hitting numbers in the first half (.267/.316/.482 in 335 PA), though the Reds couldn’t find a trade partner. He then went ice-cold in August and September, so while Cozart may not quite have turned a corner at the plate, he still provides outstanding glovework at a key defensive position. Cozart will get a pretty modest bump from his $2.925MM salary in 2016 via his third and final year of arbitration eligibility, so he’ll surely get some renewed trade interest this winter from teams looking to upgrade themselves at least defensively at shortstop. Cozart certainly looks like the Reds’ likeliest veteran trade chip, given that their other high-priced vets have major injury issues (Homer Bailey, Devin Mesoraco) or full no-trade clauses (Phillips, Joey Votto).
Phillips already rejected one proposed trade to the Nationals last offseason since the Nats didn’t agree to a contract extension. It’s now even more unlikely that a trade suitor will talk extension, in the wake of Phillips’ below-average year both offensively and defensively. In a recent interview, Phillips didn’t sound much more open to waiving his trade protection, so unless (or until) he consents to a deal, the Reds could make the big move of having both Phillips and Herrera compete for the second base job in Spring Training. This could leave Phillips as a very expensive bench piece, or the Reds could explore moving him to third if Herrera indeed takes over at second.
Of course, Eugenio Suarez has established himself at the hot corner, and it would seem a curious move to displace a 25-year-old for a 35-year-old nearing the end of his tenure with the club. Keep in mind, however, that the Reds have Nick Senzel (the second overall pick of the 2016 draft) earmarked as their third baseman of the future. With injuries and NTCs preventing the Reds from shopping most of their veterans, Suarez would be an interesting alternative trade candidate. He’s coming off a 20-homer season and is still a pre-arbitration player, though with only 2.2 fWAR combined in 2015-16, Cincy probably isn’t looking at Suarez as a member of its next contending team. Speaking of which, the Reds also need to…
2. Figure out which position players are keepers. Don’t count on the Reds acquiring anything more than veteran position player depth, as the bulk of their offseason and Spring Training time should be spent deciding on who amongst their interesting crop of young players projects as a long-term piece.
Billy Hamilton took some small but credible steps forward as an offensive player this season. Hamilton’s speed and outstanding center field glove are worthy of everyday duties anyway, though becoming even an average hitter would make Hamilton into a major threat. Tucker Barnhart‘s pitch-framing and defense is a work in progress, though he can hit well enough to handle the position until the Reds know if Mesoraco is healthy enough to continue on behind the plate.
All-Star Adam Duvall emerged as a big power threat and a surprisingly strong left field defender, though he’ll need to cut down on his strikeouts and improve his on-base percentage. Scott Schebler posted some solid numbers and looks like he can, at least, serve as the left-handed hitting side of a platoon in right field. Big-hitting prospect Jesse Winker is knocking on the door for a callup and has been seen time at both corner outfield spots. Winker is also a left-handed hitter so he’s not ideal as a platoon partner with Schebler, though one would suspect Cincinnati would give Winker the first crack at everyday duties once he gets the call to the bigs.
3. Continue sorting out the pitching, with a focus on the bullpen. The Reds went into 2016 with about as unsettled a pitching situation as possible, and it resulted in a new Major League record for most homers allowed in a season. While Anthony DeSclafani, Dan Straily and Brandon Finnegan need to drastically cut down on the long balls, all three have claimed rotation jobs for next season. Bailey will join them if healthy, though that’s a big “if” given how he’s faced somewhat of a bumpy recovery from Tommy John surgery. There are plenty of candidates in the mix for the fifth starter’s job, with former top prospect Robert Stephenson tentatively in the lead, though he didn’t impress in his first taste of big league action. Cody Reed, Keyvius Sampson, John Lamb, Tim Adleman and highly-touted prospect Amir Garrett will also be competing. A minor trade wouldn’t be out of the question given the number of arms on hand, though given that the rotation is hardly set in stone, the Reds might want to keep as much depth as possible.
Losers of the rotation battle could help out the league-worst bullpen. There is some hope at the back of the pen, with the combination of Raisel Iglesias and Michael Lorenzen standing out as an intriguing closer/setup man pairing. Beyond those two, there’s really nowhere to go but up given how poorly the Cincy relief corps performed in 2016. If the Reds target anything in free agency, it could be a veteran reliever or two (on a short-term or minor league contract) just to add some stability. If these relievers pitch well, the Reds could potentially flip them at the deadline.
Suárez is most definitely worth keeping, and could well be a member of the next Reds contending team. Excluding the month of May, Suarez is hitting .264/.337/.456 which obviously provides some value, and has been a slightly above average defender at 3B. I see him as a middle infielder or super utility (Zobrist like) player long-term, but would be genuinely surprised if he wasn’t in a Reds uniform by the end of next season.
As for which bats are worth keeping in the outfield, I see Schebler and Winker being the starting corner outfielders with Duvall as a power bat off the bench/4th outfielder type.
I hope Suarez is gone in the years to come. Definitely not part of our future team. Not a good defender, and his bat hasn’t impressed me. Hopefully after senzel gets called up, Suarez is gone. As for Duvall, hopefully the reds are smart enough to trade him this off-season, because I don’t see him ever having a season like this again, which wasn’t all that great to begin with. Ya he can hit the long ball, but his average and OBP are awful.
Adam Duvall likely has limited trade value for the reasons you described. With limited trade value and two more pre-arbitration years to go there’s no need to trade him. The Reds are hoping to contend by 2018, at which point Duvall will still be extremely affordable, and at least a useful bat off the bench.
Suarez has hit for higher average and OBP than Duvall, while Duvall has added more extra base hits. One is a 25 year old who can play all over the infield, the other is a 28 year old outfielder. Suarez needs to continue to improve, but I could easily see him as a part of the next contending Reds team.
Once again, an above average defender if you look at the numbers. And in the second half, I would argue he has been a well above average defender.
And of course after one year, Duvall can not get any better?
Ouch. Take away a player’s worst month to get him up to .264/.337/.456 line as a slightly above average 3B and make space for him as the second every day utility player on the team and thinking keeping him will help make Cincinnati a contender. Tough to be a Red fan these days….
No no, not the second every day utility player. I said that assuming Peraza will be the everyday SS and Herrera the everyday 2B.
Player A: .264/.337/.456, 15 HR, 54 RBI in 462 AB
Player B: .241/.323/.422, 21 HR, 95 RBI in 519 AB
Player C: .246/.315/.404, 20 HR, 66 RBI in 560 AB
Player A is Suárez excluding the month of May.
Player B is Addison Russell.
Player C is Suárez’s full season.
Many people talk about Russell being a very good player, but, excluding RBI (which are primarily affected by the Cubs’ other hitters being on base more often in front of Russell), Suárez, even including May, has had a very similar year. Take away May, and Suárez has been better by a fairly significant margin.
“Big hitting” Jesse Winker had 3hr in 448 PA’s in 2016 in AAA.
It’s really strange how he lost all of his ability to hit for power after the 2014 season.
I believe that’s when he injured his wrist in a midseason car accident, right before his midseason promotion to AA. And he hit nearly as many homeruns in 2015 as he did in 2014. Improving his power numbers is basically the only thing left for Winker to prove in the minors, after spending 2016 as one of the toughest outs in the International League.
If he can manage to slug around .450, he will be a valuable player for the Reds. The thing is that he hasn’t got any speed (to cite Redlag nation ‘He is among the slowest players I have watched this year’ ), and considered to be a below average defender, even in the corner outfield positions. Thus, the skillset he has shown this season is very limited and not good enough for any MLB team. If you combine his on base skills to the skillset of a player like Billy Hamilton, an you’ve got one of the best players in the league.
“Not good enough for any MLB team?” What??
I’m sure there are 29 other teams who would LOVE to have a 23 year old, top 100 prospect who just hit .303 with a .397 OBP in AAA this year
Good article.
I completely agree that Jose Peraza should be the team’s starting SS on opening day. At the same time, he’s not the only versatile guy mentioned. Suarez was moved from SS to 3b this year (with improved defense recently), and has the raw talent to play most of the same positions as Peraza (Peraza has speed to play CF while Suarez has arm to play 3b). What I’m getting at is I doubt Suarez is traded… he’s just as much a utility option as Peraza ever was. Suarez has never played 2b, but probably could. He could handle SS on occasion. If Suarez is replaced at 3b he could easily find himself in a utility role. Suarez is still a young guy with room for improvement.
Suarez seems far more likely to be part of the next Reds contender, whether as a 3b or utility player, than Brandon Phillips. Suarez is still a full year from being eligible for salary arbitration.
In my opinion Brandon Phillips isn’t moving off 2b. Maybe he stays with the Reds, maybe he doesn’t, but that the several time Gold Glover will remain at 2b isn’t in question in my opinion. His glove has obviously declined, but he’s resisted moves before (up the spectrum to SS) and I expect he will again (in this case down the spectrum to 3b). He’s spent almost every inning of his long MLB career at 2b, and I seriously doubt that changes in 2017. He’s more likely to be benched than moved to another position.
Winker hit .303 with a .397 OBP in AAA, with 59 BB and 59 Ks, as a 22 year old. If ‘big-hitting’ isn’t the proper title for him, perhaps ‘extremely-difficult-out’ is. I think the power will come, but his ability to reach base is NOT in question. So far he looks like the opposite of Adam Duvall – the offensive strengths of each are the glaring weakness of the other.
They need a total rebuild and there is no future til they figure that out. When they figure that out it will take them 3-5 years so maybe we will see them content in the 2020’s with the Cubs,Cardinals, Pirates and soon to be Brewers who figured it out. Good luck
I see no reason for this much pessimism. The Reds have one of the best farm systems in baseball. Right now they have an exciting assortment of young position players and pitchers; in fact, too many to fit on a diamond at once. The cardinals are not the team they once were and neither are the pirates. If by “contend” you mean win another division title, maybe. But if you’re using contend in its literal since, I will gladly take the under on your 2020 bet
Hopefully it doesn’t take that long but there farm system is raked 11th. Wouldn’t say that is one of the best but maybe 11 is good out of 30
Another good draft pick should help. Just keep doing bad like the twins and get top draft picks. Hopefully they can develop them better then the twins