3:56pm: Philadelphia has officially announced the offer to Hellickson.
10:33pm: The Phillies will make a qualifying offer today to right-hander Jeremy Hellickson, according to Jon Heyman of Fan Rag (via Twitter). He’ll have a week to decide whether to take the one-year, $17.2MM offer or instead enter the free agent market with the requirement that a new team sacrifice a draft pick to sign him.
Depending upon one’s perspective, this move will come as obvious or as quite a surprise. All the chatter around the team of late has suggested that Hellickson was in line to be tagged with a QO — which became especially clear when the Phils decided not to move him at the trade deadline. But Hellickson has never been a frontline arm and perhaps doesn’t feel like the type of player who’d typically have this level of cash dangled.
Hellickson is coming off of his best season in some time, as he contributed 189 innings of 3.71 ERA ball to the Phils. His peripherals are in about the same range as usual, though, as he ended with 7.3 K/9 against 2.1 BB/9 and a 40.7% groundball rate. ERA estimators weren’t particularly excited: Hellickson did post full-season career lows in FIP (3.98) and xFIP (3.99), though those are hardly stellar marks. His SIERA has landed between 4.04 and 4.15 in each of the last four seasons, and perhaps that’s the best indication of what teams can reasonably expect moving forward.
Ultimately, it’s not hard to see Philadelphia’s reasoning, especially given the runaway spending seen last winter on starting pitching and the thin supply available this winter. If he were to take the offer, it may be something of an overpay for a single season. But it would only be a one-year commitment, and this organization can certainly afford it — and might even welcome the chance to welcome back the righty after a sturdy campaign. If he rejects it, of course, Philly would line up to add a draft pick that could be quite valuable at this stage of the team’s rebuilding effort.
There’s something of a win-win in the decision for the team. From Hellickson’s perspective, the offer is not welcome, but there are silver linings as well. For one thing, it’s nice to have this kind of cash on the table, even if it’s only on a one-year rate. And the offer suggests that the Phils were impressed with him last year, which provides some information to the rest of the market. If Hellickson prefers to stay in Philadelphia, he could still negotiate a lengthier pact. But given the state of the pitching market, there’s good reason to think he can turn down the QO and still do just fine in free agency.
Take it and repeat!
Gutsy move by the Phillies, but with the current market for pitching, it can certainly be justified.
I don’t think it’s much of a risk. They’ve got next to nothing committed to salary for 2017. If he accepts, great. Hopefully, he pitches as well as he did in 2016. If he declines, oh well. The Phillies sign or trade for another veteran to anchor their young staff AND they’ll get a draft pick. It’s really a win/win for them.
I think he’ll get a 3-year contract offer at about 14M/year from elsewhere. He’ll accept that, and the Phils will get a draft pick.
I can’t imagine the G.M. of any team giving him $42 million and surrendering a draft pick…..at least not a general manager that will be around in three years
Winner of this offseason’s Ricky Nolasco award if there ever was one.
I think he should take the QO…$17.2 mil for the year!
Pretty much the same situation as the Padres with Ian Kennedy last year. They have to QO the guy because otherwise they look stupid for not trading him at the deadline. Hellickson did have a better contract year and is entering a much weaker free agent SP class tho so if Kennedy got what he wanted I can’t imagine Hellickson not getting it as well.
That takes him out of the Braves plans.
The QO (and need to give up a draft pick) also hurts Hellicksons bargaining position if the Phillies are looking to negotiate for a longer deal. Having a relatively inexpensive arm to eat innings with all the young’uns in the rotation wouldn’t be the worst thing.
Hellickson and his agent would be silly to not accept the QO. I understand the market is barren this off-season but I couldn’t see any teams without a protected pick signing him. If he declines I predict either not a lot of money like 2/25 or not being signed until sometime next season like we saw with kendrys morales. Take the 17 million
He should strongly consider taking the offer. He’s been very erratic in his career, but never outstanding, and never exceeded 189 IP. If he’s having a decent year, he will be flipped mid-season, and not have to deal with a QO. If he’s not, $17.2M will certainly help.
This is what’s so very wrong with the QO…
How long does he have to decide?
Yup…the winner of the Nolasco award this year. Very overrated