Major League teams had until 5pm ET today to extend qualifying offers to their impending free agents — a decision that could significantly impact the market for a number of players this winter. For those unfamiliar with the process, the collective bargaining agreement stipulates that teams can make a “qualifying offer” to free agents that spent the entire season on the roster — midseason trades and signings are ineligible — if they wish to secure draft pick compensation for the loss of that player. The QO is a set one-year value determined by averaging the salaries of the top 125 players in the league. This year, the value of that sum comes to $17.2MM.
A player will have one week to survey the market and determine whether he wishes to accept the QO or reject in search of a more lucrative free-agent deal. If a player accepts the offer — something that has happened only three times since the system’s implementation in 2012 (Matt Wieters, Colby Rasmus and Brett Anderson) — that player is considered signed for the following season at $17.2MM. The contract is considered a free-agent deal, and as such, that player is not allowed to be traded without his consent until June 15.
If the player rejects a QO, he’s free to sign with any team for any amount (including the team from which he rejected the QO). However, whichever team signs a player that has rejected a QO must surrender its top unprotected pick in the upcoming draft (unless the player re-signs with the team that made the QO). The first 10 selections are protected, so those clubs would only be required to part with their second-highest pick. A team that signs multiple players that have rejected a QO continues to forfeit its top unprotected pick for each subsequent signing. The team that lost the free agent in question, meanwhile, will receive a compensatory draft pick at the end of the first round. The order of comp picks, like the draft order itself, is determined based upon the previous year’s standings.
Last year there were a record 20 players to receive QOs (valued at $15.8MM based on 2015 salaries). There should be fewer this year, given the weak free-agent market, but there should still be a double-digit total of QOs extended. Here’s a list of who will reportedly receive qualifying offers thus far, and we’ll update this throughout the day and include the full list when the 5:00pm deadline has passed:
- Mark Trumbo, Orioles (link)
- Jeremy Hellickson, Phillies (link)
- Yoenis Cespedes, Mets (link)
- Neil Walker, Mets (link)
- Edwin Encarnacion, Blue Jays (link)
- Jose Bautista, Blue Jays (link)
- Ian Desmond, Rangers (link)
- Dexter Fowler, Cubs (link)
- Kenley Jansen, Dodgers (link)
- Justin Turner, Dodgers (link)
For a more in-depth explanation of the qualifying offer system, you can reference back to our post Explaining The Qualifying Offer System from last October. In the past, MLBTR’s Tim Dierkes has also spoken to both agents and general managers about the importance of avoiding the qualifying offer and the impact it has on teams’ decisions. MLBTR’s Jeff Todd, meanwhile, penned a pair of insightful posts in an effort to contextualize and assess the QO system and its purposes on the heels of the 2013-14 offseason.
It’ll be interesting to see how the QO effects the Free agent market, again…. cmon CBA!!!!
I hope Fowler takes the QO so the Cardinals stay away from him.
He won’t. He’ll most definitely test the market.
I don’t see the Cards giving up their draft pick for Fowler.
Agree 10000%
I would love an OF with Fowler, Heyward, Almora, Schwarber, and Zobrist… Zo can play some INF. Schwarber can catch and DH. Then you have Russell, Baez, Bryant(can play OF as well), Rizzo, Contreras(C,OF) trade Miggy for another Catcher and add a middle infielder.
So you want to limit Schwarbs to 10 games or so in AL parks?
Schwarber best position is DH. Cubs should pray for NL to implement the DH. His defense at any position is HUGE liability.
Lol the NL will never get a dh. AL baseball is boring to be honest. There’s no strategy at all. Schwarbs does just fine behind the plate and in LF.
I respectfully disagree with your assessment of his defensive abilities. He was a butcher in LF in the Mets series and tore his knee this year by not yielding to CF’er. Contreras has a gun and is catcher of future. I assume Ross and Montero are gone so Schwarber will have to catch some. But he is liability there as well.
He had maybe 3 or 4 bad plays in left vs the Mets last year. You can’t based his defense off a new misplayed balls.
No Mark Trumbo? That’s a bit surprising.
They haven’t hit the deadline yet. I’m sure Trumbo will get one, though I think they pass on offering Weiters one.
Yeah – we’re only saying who has been reported to receive the offer or announced to have received an offer so far. At this point, that doesn’t include Trumbo, but he’s a no-brainer to get one by 5pm today.
Steve, this is a little like Election Day–waiting for the polls to close…
Trumbo got one. You can rest easy.
I sometimes wonder whether MLB keeps the QO’s to generate media attention. It impacts only a few players–the handful good enough to be worth somewhere near the QO amount but not good enough to be thought of as worth the loss if a draft pick. But in publicity….
I say on the list as of right now Walker and Bautista accept. I could see Turner accepting but leaning no
To me personally, I’d agree that Walker and Bautista SHOULD accept. I’m not sure however that they will accept.
Bautista probably won’t because the big bats this offseason would be him, Encarncion and Cespedes. I think Bautista will sign with some AL team just can’t put my nose on it. Encarnarcion I see signing back in Toronto
Why should Joey Bats accept? He’ll easily get more money per year than the QO over at least 4 years.
Look at all the bat first players this season who are limited defensively and then look at the teams who are likely to sign those types of players. There isn’t going to be as huge a demand for those type players this season as many would think. Then you combine the fact that Joey Bats had one of his worst offensive seasons in years and his age. No way he will end up with a 4 year deal for more than the QO price of 17.2 million as an AAV. Yeah, someone might give him a 4 year deal but it certainly won’t be for that price. You wouldn’t be buying the Bautista of 2012-15 you’d be buying the 2017-2020 version. That is going to be a much different player. If he declines he will regret it. His best option if he bets on himself and thinks that he is capable of producing like the player he boasts he should get paid as then he accepts the 1 year deal, produces big and cashes in next season.
The free agents who put up similar type numbers (OPS+ wise) who haven’t gotten QO’s yet are Trumbo, Alvarez, Napoli, Moss, Beltran, Morales, and Saunders. Admittedly none have the track record Joey Bats has but they don’t have a QO attached to them either (so they won’t cost a pick). I’m not saying that they will take all the spots that Bautista could have fit in to, but the sheer number of them, and the likelihood of them being cheaper (with possible exceptions of Trumbo and Beltran) will damper the demand for Bautista. By the way in case it isn’t obvious, I see Bautista more of a DH type instead of an everyday outfielder.
Southi, I’m not sure why topping the AAV would matter in that scenario. If a player’s market allows for them to make something around 4 years/60M as opposed to 1 year/17.M, why would they pass up an extra 43M? Much less as a 36 year old who could have a down season at any time now. AAV matters, I get that, but as long as the AAV isn’t wildly different, you won’t see many star free agents take one-year deals instead, especially since all salary is guaranteed. Aside from that, Bautista likely tops that AAV. 4 years/68.8M is not at all out of the realm of possibility, and while I don’t think he gets what some have been speculating, I certainly think he surpasses the total dollars.. You have to remember this FA class is historically weak. That will automatically allow many free agents to get deals than they deserve. If you’re a DH-needy team who could use a big bat (ahem, Boston) you might fork up big bucks for Bautista.
myaccount you are correct in the AAV, but the ONLY reason I mentioned it was specifically in reply to TheWestCoastRyan who said Joey Bats would easily get more money per year than the QO over at least 4 years (which would translate as an AAV of at least 17.2 ). If my opinion ends up being correct then if someone does pay that then it will be a big overpay and the team in question likely ended up bidding against themselves (that has happened before…see BJ Upton, Jr.).. I will agree that this free agent class is weak, but as I mentioned there are lots of DH types who will cost less than Bautista. He very well sign multi season deal, but it definitely will not be in the 20 million a year range that some have speculated. If he wants to look for that type of AAV then he will have to regain some value. He is not going to get the huge contract he was claiming to be worth when the Jays looked to extend him. Just my opinion, and I’ve been wrong before (but I was right last season that Fowler, and Desmond would find supressed markets and that there would be players accept a QO last season as well).
Can Beltran be offered a QO after being traded during the season?
No a team can’t issue a QO if they trade for the player during the season
Most people including MLBTR are projecting a 3 year deal for $16-17 per year Jose Bautista. While the AAV will probably be a little less than the QO, the guaranteed total is still a lot more than $17.2 million, so no way he accepts.
Bautista should look to get a longer deal before he’s a primary dh. If he doesn’t except that dead pull bat would be lethal in Boston
If Bautista accepts QO I’d be stunned, but I’ve been stunned before.
Considering he wants 150 mil for 5 year at age 37. If I was Toronto I wouldn’t offer him jack squat. He’s a greedy dude and I hope odor knocks him the hell out next time..
Haha
Wow! You believe that moron Richard Griffin? Both Bautista and the Blue Jays said the rumors of him wanting a 5-year EXTENSION for $150 million before the 2016 season were way off and that they had never discussed numbers anywhere near that. So what makes you think he would for $150 million now?
I highly doubt Turner accepts, though as a Dodgers fan I’d love to see it. I see him getting 3-to-4 years at $17MM+ given the weak free agent class.
No way Bautista takes it.. Not at his age. He could easily get a 3 year 60million contract.
The only team that gives him that contract is Toronto and then it’s a push. He’s a DH at this point unless you want constant nagging injuries.. 3/60 is not unreasonable but I think that is the maximum any team is willing to offer. I have been surprised before but I don’t see it this season unless it’s a last minute pillow contract in Baltimore just so he can lead the league in homeruns like the other Orioles who have the last four years… If you are going to pay 20 plus million a year why not go after Cespedes or EE instead?
I can see the Bo Sox paying 60/3 for a DH.
Bautista’s ego is too big to accept a 1 year deal. Agree with you on Walker, and now that Hellickson has been offered a QO, I think he’ll accept as well.
Desmond should accept it. Double the salary and another chance to prove himself after terrible half.
Or he could decline it and get way more than $17.2m guaranteed. Ever think about that?
Keyword is Could. Last year he declined it and got half of the QO. Ever think about that?
1
Desmond had a very good year. He could easily get a contract that is as big or bigger than Zobrist’s 4 year/$56 million deal and that a whole lot more guaranteed money than $17.2 million. He won’t take it.
Kenley Jansen receiving a QO is very surprising. I realize he is lights out, but in terms of value, $17+ mil for one season doesn’t seem to add up for any reliever.
There is a good chance Jansen will get 15 mill or so a year over 4-5 years from some desperate for a closer team. His playoff performance helped a ton.
Kenley Jansen’s biggest obstacle in receiving a free agent mega deal will be the qualifying offer and the fact that his top competitor in the market will be Aroldis Chapman who won’t have the stigma of the QO since he was traded during the past season. That being said, Jansen still figures to get paid handsomely this offseason in terms of average annual salary and in total number of years.
I can see the Nationals paying Janssen and the Mets to possibly sign Melancon because of the Familla domestic violence brigade.
If they do get Melancon, when they get Fam back that bullpen would be stellar though.
Reed(7th) Familla(8th) Melancon(9th) If they Could add fowler and maybe another RH hitting C they would be set.
It’s not the dollar figure, it’s the years, or lack thereof. Jansen wants a multiyear guarantee and he’s gonna get one.
Did you watch the world series? Obviously the shutdown relievers are going to be the class of this FA period. Jansen gets 60 million easy on the open market. Chapman probably more.
The only person I see on this list with a remote chance of taking the QO is Walker. If it was a better year for pitching Hellickson would probably take it but he will probably get 3/45 in this offseason.
Major League General Managers tend to disagree with WAR when it comes to elite relievers, and while the overall FA market is less than stellar, that’s not the case with this years relievers. Jansen and Chapman are two of the best.
At this point, Jansen is more inclined to decline the QO. A high performing player, of any sport, wants long-term contracts and security because they would rather settle for the next, lets say 4 years or so. Even if the QO is set at 17.2 mill, Jansen would probably sacrifice a few millions, just to gain more years on his next contract.
I think Hellickson is interesting because the starting pitching market is so weak but didn’t have the best of seasons. Walker will be as well.
Paying Jansen $17 mil????? Wow!!!!
My thoughts exactly.. My god the Dodgers know how to blow money.
What about Chapman? Give him a QO. then tell him if he accepts they will immediately work on an extension. So it would be 18 mil for one year plus a 4 year extension. For 20-22mm aav.
He was traded in the middle of the season, so he can’t be tagged.
I’m not sure why people are stunned about Jansen. Papelbon got one offered and declined and got more. David Robertson too. Jansen will easily get a multi year deal and probably above $50 million.
Agreed. Jansen is worth the QO even if you go by guideline that free agent prices are roughly $8 million per 1 WAR. He’s averaged about 2.3 fWAR per season over the last 3 years. And there’s good evidence that, for whatever reason, teams pay more than that per WAR for high-end relievers.
It’s also the Dodgers, so they can offer QO’s without being concerned that a player taking a QO will screw up their budget plans. Jansen won’t accept it, but the Dodgers would be perfectly happy if he does.
I think Trumbo might accept, so he can prove he is not a fluke, and rake a big contract next offseason, when there will be less slugger only types on the market.
2016 was Trumbo’s third season above 30HR. He shouldn’t have a problem getting a team to believe he’s not a fluke. Seemed happy to be back in the AL again. Guy’s gonna get a few years.
What if a team signs a player with a QO but also loses a player with a QO?
They lose their first unprotected pick and then gain a pick in the compensation round at the end of the first round. So basically they just fall a little further down the board in the first round.
Technically, the pick they lose can be their comp round pick. A team that has a protected first-rounder that both signs and loses a QO player would lose their comp pick, not their second rounder.
I think if Bautista was smart he’d take the QO. He could absolutely get more money on the open market, how much more idk. He’s getting up there in terms of age and had a sharp decline in numbers this year and injuries. If he takes the QO comes back next year and returns to the Bautista of old he could get himself double of what he would get this offseason coming off a bad year. Just my opinion.
Accept gets $17 mill, but no big contract is guaranteed in a year. Bautista of old is starting to break down.
He’ll probably be able to get 4 years out of someone right now based on the lack of other options, and the sheer amount of teams with room in the budget and a need for offense.
Whiney or not, the guy gets on base. Teams pay for that. The Jays refuse to spend the playoff profits on the roster, so they will probably be outbid by a surprise team that offers him a 4th year- $75 mill contract. Or something crazy like 2 year- $50 mill. Some of these teams have next to nothing committed. They could do it and not hurt the future.
If I didn’t have any money committed, like Philly or Brewers, I’d even consider him in the NL. Oakland has money to spend and loves on base machines. They’re my wild card. Astros could make it work. Rays, Sox, Yanks, all could and should offer. They know all too well. Mariners core is aging and aren’t going to miss out. Some of these teams won’t even lose a 1st round pick. Watch out for Philly.
I don’t see there being a lack of other options. What I see is a limited number of DH spots, and an increasing number (as players get older) of those limited to the position. C