Royals starters Danny Duffy and Yordano Ventura are two of the pitchers on the Astros’ list of rotation targets, MLB.com’s Brian McTaggart reports. The two K.C. arms join several other previously-known names (i.e. Jose Quintana, Chris Archer, Jake Odorizzi and other Tampa Bay’s starters) as potential trade fits for a Houston team looking to upgrade its starting pitching.
Kansas City is known to be open to dealing notable players in order to cut short-term payroll, and the Royals have already made one big move in this regard by dealing Wade Davis to the Cubs for Jorge Soler. Even with Davis gone, however, the Royals have several more possible trade chips who are only controllable over the next one or two seasons before hitting free agency.
Duffy fits into that category, as MLBTR projects the southpaw to earn $8.2MM in his final year of arbitration eligibility before hitting free agency after the 2017 season. K.C. began preliminary extension talks with Duffy earlier this winter but were also gauging interest in his services during the Winter Meetings. Duffy, who turns 28 late this month, posted a 3.51 ERA, 9.4 K/9 and 4.48 K/BB rate over 179 2/3 innings for Kansas City last year, finally solidifying himself as a member of the rotation after being used as a part-time reliever in the previous two seasons and at the start of 2016.
While Duffy would be a one-year rental, Ventura is locked up through at least 2019 due to a contract extension that includes club options for both 2020 and 2021. Ventura is guaranteed $20.25MM through 2019 and, if both options are exercised, Ventura’s deal would cost $43.25MM over the five seasons. Even if Ventura merely continues to post numbers akin to his only-okay 2016 season (4.45 ERA, 50.2% grounder rate, 6.97 K/9, 1.85 K/BB rate over 186 innings), that deal is still very good value given the rising costs of starting pitching, and it could become a major bargain should Ventura take a step forward in performance.
Ventura has been the subject of controversy due to reported maturity issues and his two suspensions for throwing at batters, though the Royals denied reports that they were shopping the righty last summer. One would think that given Ventura’s age (25) and reasonable contract, the Royals would see him as a long-term building block rather than as a trade chip. Their willingness to least listen to other clubs’ offers could be due to doubts about his personality, or it could just be due diligence, as Ventura’s years of control could net K.C. a nice return in a trade.
The Astros have a deep minor league system that could satisfy the Royals or other teams looking for young talent, and Houston could also offer starting pitching of its own in the form of Collin McHugh or Mike Fiers. Since the Royals plan to contend next season, they could fit as a team that would take on a solid rotation piece like McHugh or Fiers rather than just prospects in exchange for a pitcher; the Davis trade, for instance, netted the Royals a player in Soler who they expect to contribute immediately.
Dallas Keuchel, Lance McCullers, McHugh, Fiers and the newly-signed Charlie Morton project as Houston’s rotation. It’s an unspectacular but solid rotation, and one that could look better on paper if Keuchel returns to his Cy Young Award form of 2015.
Venturas value cant get any cheaper than now. Unless he breaks the law
Define cheap, he’s under control for a while
Maturity issues. Control issues. Consistency issues. That about sums up the holy trifecta of lost value for a young pitcher.
By this description I swear you were talking about Trevor Bauer.
haha so true
I’ve never actually seen anyone post anything positive about Ventura.
As a Royals fan, I still love Yo. Are there times he is hot-headed, absolutely. But he has shown glimpses of ace potential in the past and half of the incidents he is involved with were encouraged by the opposing team (Lawrie).
For whatever reason Ventura reminds me of Francisco Liriano. He has tantalizing stuff….but reminds me of a guy who becomes a solid #2….you see him on the good days and he’s unhittable and you wonder what happened. Yes, he’s young…but he’s wracking up mileage. No shame in being a 2-3 starter.
No teams ever going to pay FMV for Venturara, might as well hold onto him
FMV is more than he’s under contract for sooooo………
The guys a hot mess, he’s like the Jose Bautista of pitchers
I think it would be a disaster for Ventura in Minute Maid Park.
It would be problematic for Ventura to pitch at MMP and you never know when he will snap. His highs are very high and lows are very low but he is immature. As for cheap, I think he means what HOU would have to give up to get Ventura.
LoL!What are they going to give up?The Astros have really poor farm,almost no top prospects@@ Go Royals
? IS THAT A BLOODY JOKE?
really none sense
The Astros have a top 10 Farm System easily… we’ve got prospects up and down the board, good ones too, but i am 99% positive that the Royals will be able to pry them away from the Astros.
Jerry that’s kind of a pitiful comment. Maybe research rather than troll.
what I mean is that the Astros would not give up top prospects for Ventura,because they want to buy low
That is not at all what you said first
The Astros are stacked with young talent, they remind me of the Cubs going into 2015 with one major difference, their ML rotation. Sale would have been a great get for them, but there are other nice options out there on the trade market and the Astros definitely have the prospects to get one or two. If they get their pitching squared away they will make it to the ALCS against Boston, maybe even the WS against the Cubs. Ventura seems like a cancer, I’d focus on Archer and/or Duffy.
Didn’t remind you of the Royals in 2014? lol Cubs 2015 team is basically Royals 2014 team…
Duffy better not go. Good value for him to stay and really won’t get a ton in return. Royals have stuck with him this long through his wild days, only reason I see them giving up Duffy is for some really, REALLY good talent.
I would hate to see Duffy go as well. However, I don’t see his stock getting much higher than it currently is. With that said I would pull the trigger if the return was right.
Jerry850917-
I pretty much despise the Astros but your comment is nothing less than really stupid. Anyways – lol
Unless the Astros, unbeknownst to everyone, are trying to operate an open air tomato farm in the Nevada desert using gasoline as fertilizer….Im not sure what farm you are talking about. Pretty small bridge for this troll job to live under.
I really don’t see the benefit that these two pitchers would give the Astros over what they already have. Innings and era are pretty much a wash if the Astros are dangling McCue and Fires so unless they are looking at adding another lefty I can’t see adding any major prospects into this scenario.
Ventura has much higher upside than McHugh and Fiers. he has frontline starter potential still if he could put it all together
As an Astros fan, the Royals can stick it, The Stros had better not trade for Duffy, none the less Ventura, Duffy is a great pitcher, but only one year of control isn’t worth the level of prospect the Royals will want in return. And Ventura, god forbid he comes down here, We already got rid of one punk by the name of Gomez, signed the punk McCann, i can’t stand to have such a degenerate pitcher in the mix too. KEEP HIM!
McCann is a punk? you’re really talking out of your ass at this point dude
Punk may have not been the right word, but that dude has gotten in several arguments and gets in peoples faces. IE The Jose Fernandez HR
You exactly right Whittboy. I’m not an Astros fan, but those two Royals pitchers don’t fit the Astros. They don’t need a 1 year rental in Duffy and Ventura is an idiot. The Astros don’t need that in their clubhouse. He single handedly starts feuds with multiple teams a year.
If Ventura is traded, I want to see him go the the NL so he can stand in that box after being his dumbass self.
Blah blah blah. You know there’s a fair amount of inter-league games played each year don’t you? Hard to listen to someone that’s an idiot and take them serious 😉
McCanns not a punk, he’s a giant d-bag who doesn’t like it when other people have fun though
And what are the Royals asking for their one year rental? Please share this with the rest of us. It may be less than you think because KC is paring salary. They didn’t exactly get the expected return for Wade Davis.
Wade Davis on a one year deal after having arm problems last season got a decent return. Jorge Soler is a 24 year old OF with huge upside and controlled for 4 more years. I will agree if may be a little light but not huge. I would assume they are asking more for Duffy who’s value went up last season, is young, is a starter and is trending upwards. Also with the Royals trying to cut salary why would they want Fiers or McHugh?
Duffy would be a good pickup and theoretically speaking it shouldn’t cost the Astros too much. Maybe Fiers and a low level prospect?
Depends on what “low-level” prospect means, and they wouldn’t give up their best pitcher for a nobody and Mike (god-forsaken) Fiers.
They’ll give up 1 year of Duffy for 4 years of Fiers on the cheap. Fiers isn’t a stud, but he’s gotta value. Hell Fiers alone isn’t a bad one for one. I’m not saying that’s enough! The Astros would have to give away something else, maybe Miguelangel Sierra. Or the Astros could included Moran or JD Davis who are closer to the majors and could play 3B if Moustakaus departs in free agency.
The flaw in this logic is that that 4 years of Fiers has actual value….when they could potentially replace his stats every season.
Tucker,White or Reed or Singleton and include Rays in it and Cobb or Ramirez to Royals for Dozier or O’Hean
I’d rather go after Quintana… ESPN did a piece on that today, and proposed a theoretical proposition to trade for Q. It consisted of Martes, Cameron, and A.J. Reed. I thought that would be nice, however, if we could maybe force their hand, we could substitute Martes with Paulino and another mid-level prospect…
Martes and/or tucker would have to be in any quintana deal
Quintana is really good, but Rizzo and the Nats ruined it for everybody by severely overpaying for Eaton. Now the White Sox think everyone is gonna bend over and over pay like Rizzo did. He wants too much for Q, go after Duffy…maybe Archer.
I’d be okay giving them tucker, but they sure as hell aren’t getting both him and Tucker, both are capable of being center-pieces. They aren’t going to get Musgrove either, he will have a role to play this upcoming year.
martes or Tucker on their own aren’t good enough prospects to be centerpieces to a Quintana deal. his surplus value is on the same level as sale with the four years of cheap control. sox aren’t dealing him on the cheap
Martes is definitely good enough to be a centerpiece. He’s the 29th best prospect in baseball and the 5th best right handed pitching prospect. Plus he’s not tabbed for the bullpen or to be a #3 starter or something, he’s tabbed to be a FOTR guy to build a rotation around. Tucker was the #5 player in the draft and the best HS bat. They are certainly good enough.
Clearly no one except White Sox fans think that. Many teams were making a big push to get Sale and offered top prospects. If any GM in the league agreed with Sox fans then Quintana would’ve been traded already.
Quintana is the deal of the offseason in my opinion. He’s terribly underrated. He’s been arguably as good as Sale….and doesnt seem to have the alarm bells going off that sale has
Not sure how you force their hand. Quintana has 4 years of control and they don’t need to move him this offseason to get high value for him in return.
Astros need to stop messing around and cut a deal with the White Sox for Q. Why give up highly regarded prospects for a 1 year rental (Duffy) or a nut job (Ventura)? Q’s an All-Star – want to win? Go get the best guy available. Losing Martes, Tucker and Musgrove won’t ruin the Astros’ future. Make the deal!
Substitute Martes with Paulino and AJ Reed, i’ll take it. Even then, i’m still hesitant to part with Tucker, but that wouldn’t be fair. I don’t think the Astros will be willing to part with their top 2 prospects and Musgrove who will inevitably be playing a vital role in the upcoming season. Sale was worth what the Sox got, Eaton was a complete steal by the White Sox, a massive blunder by the Nationals, Don’t expect the Astros to be so willing to trade their talent
I think the Sox would come off Musgrove. But it would need to include the top 2 with Paulino and more.
What about this?
Astros get:
Jose Quintana
Dan Jennings
White Sox get:
Francis Martes
Kyle Tucker
David Paulino
Teoscar Hernandez
Ramon Laureano
The best trades hurt for both teams, but this proposal is absurd for the Astros. I do know that we would have to give up either Martes or Tucker, but not both. Their combined upside is far greater in value than Quintana’s already proven ceiling. He’s very good and I would like to acquire him, but not at that acquisition cost.
I like the inclusion of Teoscar because he unfortunately doesn’t have a place on the 2017 team. Take Tucker out completely and swap Reed with Paulino, that’s a deal I’d do. We don’t even have to get Jennings in return.
I doubt the Astros are looking to give up highly regarded prospects in a deal for these guys. They’re pitchers that have had success in the Majors before on a team that probably isn’t going to contend, so they are probably checking on the price. I would doubt that Martes or Tucker would be in play for either pitcher. The Astros have a good bullpen and a decent starting staff with the potential to be one of the best around if a few things break their way, so they don’t need to make a move.
I’d trade Ventura for Kolten Wong, now what do the Astros need to give St Louis?
That’s a trash trade, Wong is not good, ventura still throws heat
The only heat coming from Ventura is from his mouth. He just likes to kick his leg around and make his delivery look like he throws harder than he does. He’s imminently hittable as he showed last year frequently. He’d have a lot more strikeouts if he really threw heat.
Ventura for Adams and Wong would probably get it done
Lol you say Wong won’t get it done and then you add Matt Adams and say it would. Lol
@sean, actually the heat comes from the ball he throws at people, not his mouth. I will agree that he’s hittable but EVERY pitcher that throws heat is hittable. Chapman is hittable…..derrrrrr what a fawking idiot you are lol Learn the game of baseball first and then try to sound smart. It’s learning how to PITCH that he needs to learn (just like a guy by the name of Justin Verlander had to do)…..
neither will come cheap, Ventura, Soria, and $ for Kemp, Musgrove, Fiers and Giles
If that’s what you want then it looks like the Royals are keeping Ventura and Soria. Terrible deal lol
LOL, Ok! Keep Soria and I’ll give you Fiers, Kemp and $ for Ventura!
Ventura still has potential as a former top prospect, but he has not done that well so far and his attitude… That trade wouldn’t make sense for the Royals
Duh…no disrespect, but my comment was in reply to a stupid proposal.
A logical trade proposal would start with Paulino, who has a ton of control and a really strong profile as a SP going forward. He has the potential to be a FOR SP if everything breaks right. Now, to aquire another “POTENTIAL” but still “UNPROVEN” SP in Ventura, the Astros would have to tac on talent to even out the “Known” for the “Unknown”.
So Paulino, a potential FOR SP himself, plus a young and potentially dangerous Preston Tucker, perhaps might get it done?
Fiers, Moran and Stubbs or Martin for Duffy and Ventura
i was about to smack you through the computer, i thought you referring to drew stubbs, had to check and see he wasn’t on there aaa roster lol
but no i dont think those guys would get you both , probably just one , you would have to throw in a lot more
As a royals fan this confuses me. If you trade both to any team, who do they plan on having in the starting rotation? I wanted duffy to stay and resign when he’s a free agent
Not a Royals fan and not trolling. Why are they dumping (or trying to dump) so many players when they could bounce back easily this upcoming year?
they’re not, a lot of teams just think they have a shot at acquiring them , and if a team throws a convincing offer on the table for the future like 4 years of soler for one year of wade, they’ll part with the player. But they’re not gonna do any of these silly proposals like these guys are proposing like wong for ventura or three garbage prospects for duffy. these guys are dreamin, but who can blame them
I think you are spot on. Like you, I don’t see KC dumping players for spare parts.
In spite of the recent run, I believe we have to also acknowledge David Glass’s history of being tight with the wallet. He’s shown he’ll allow a team to be built from the farm…and augmented by free agency and trade salaries….but he hasnt yet shown a desire to maintain a continued competitive threshold. Dayton Moore will always need to be crafty….I dont buy that there really are small markets anymore.
This question puts the spotlight on any general manager’s challenge: how to maximize value of a depreciating asset, and what timeline or horizon is the priority for that maximum value. Each player is a depreciating asset in terms of team control until the contract expires. Teams can realize value by on-field production until the contract expires or by trading for other asset(s), perhaps with more team control and a peak value aligned with other assets/players on the team and in the organization.
The Royals have several players all qualifying for FA at the same time. With the new CBA, they won’t be getting a 1st round pick if they lose them. The only real way to keep value in their system (because they can’t afford to sign them all) is to trade them before they leave. Worst case scenario would be someone like Duffy having a subpar or injury filled year. KC would not want to sign him to a long term deal- too risky. So he becomes a FA and signs a one year make good contract. With compensation picks being tied to the dollar value of his new contract, KC gets nothing as compensation.
Maybe 2 FA the royals lose next year may sign for enough money $50 mil to land them comp picks. I hope so at least
It makes no sense for the Royals to deal Ventura or Duffy straight up for Fiers or McHugh. I also think if they trade one of those two they should just tear it down.
Not a fan of either teams but I would not want the hot headed Ventura on my team.
Hate this potential trade.
The article says that the Royals are trying to stay competitive and cut payroll. Payroll driven trades do not always put the shopping team in the drivers seat. It is a very exciting time of year for baseball fans to see that their team is positioning itself for the upcoming season. 85% of these rumors have no real potential to become actual trades and just wind up as KICKING THE TIRES type of investigating as to what’s out there. Astros need to hold onto what minor league talent they have left and pass on selling the farm. The offensive moves alone should have them in the playoffs, maybe the trade deadline would be a better time to make a move for a pitcher.
In all reality, the Astros are talking to these teams and feeding the news to the press in order to get the White Sox to drop their price. The Astros know they’re the only real contenders for Q. The problem though is Chicago could hold out because they’ll likely contend for the division in 2 years at which time they’ll need someone like Quintana. My guess is the Astros will flinch and give up a huge package and maybe the reported package. Hopefully the White Sox will accept a bit less, but Hahn is in a great position.
I agree they are exploring all options,
Q had a 3.5 and 4.0 WAR in 2014 and 2015.
McHugh had a 4.2 WAR and 3.1 WAR in 2014 and 2015.
That’s pretty comparable, now the tale of 2016 was a whole other story, but why part with multiple highly valued prospects + a young rotation arm (Musgrove). Musgrove may not ever be more than a solid #3 (like McHugh), but still, that’s far too much to give up for a minimal improvement.
I’ve said it time and time again, Houston needs to go to Verlander. They can absorb the crappy contract, and won’t have to part with major prospects if they are paying the entire contract.
Q is very good, but no way Luhnow should give up his top 2 prospects + a rotation arm for Q.
Now, if Musgrove stays, and Fiers goes, hmm… still no to Martes. Martes is ready now. If Martes was further away, I can see it, but not at this point.
Whitley, for example, would make a lot of sense. Big right handed thrower, only 19, Could very easily be a 6’7″ guy throwing mid 90’s heat. That’s gonna be filthy.
Whitley, Tucker, Paulino, something for Q. Ok. 3 top 100 prospects, 1 in the top 50,
The part about the prospect rankings that people don’t realize : They aren’t necessarily ranked on their upside or anything alone, how far away they are plays a major part. If Tucker continues to hit in AA, he goes from #50 prospect to a top 20 guy when the rankings following the upcoming season come out.
Houston has a nice core, if they can’t get their price, see what their prospects are doing, see how McHugh is pitching, if McCullers is staying healthy, if Keuchel rebounded, etc. If so, make a move at the break. They are good enough offensively and pitching wise to be in the hunt.
If McHugh, Keuchel, or McCullers are hurt/not producing at the level we need them to, then it’s a moot point on who the next starter is, because we won’t ride Q and Charlie Morton through the playoffs.
Just my .02
Well said and I agree except for including Whitley, I think he’s going to be special. We can always dangle Reed and his 40HR potential.
I wouldn’t go quoting BR when trying to compare pitchers. Saying McHugh and Quintana are comparable is a joke. Go look at the massive differences when taking a look at fangraphs or baseball prospectus. Those two sites do a much better job taking the catcher and defense out of the equation and compare pitcher vs pitcher.
Quintana>McHugh and it’s not even close.
This is OBVIOUSLY true. There is a HUGE gap, in terms of value, between McHugh and Q. If you think I was saying contrary, then you completely misread what I was saying.
A big reason for their huge difference in value right now? 2016. McHugh dropped to replacement level, while Q was a 5+ war guy.
Q has like 4 straight years of over 200+ quality innings.
However, even by ESPN.com metrics, McHugh was 4.23 WAR in 2014. Q was 3.49. In 2015, McHugh was 3.07 WAR, Q was 3.97.
McHugh had a combined 7.30 WAR from 2014-2015, Q had a 7.46 WAR.
McHugh was also considerably better after the all star break. His #’s post all star break were considerably closer to what he had done in 2015.
My point is : It’s conceivable that McHugh is a 3.5 WAR guy. It’s also conceivable that Q is a 4 WAR guy. 4 WAR would have been Q’s career best war, had he not pitched out of his mind this year. Maybe he’s a 5+ war guy, I don’t think he has, as most guys with a WAR over the period of multiple years tend to be true front of the rotation arms, with really good K rates.
McHugh has a good, not great, K rate. Saying he’s a 5 WAR arm now is like saying Porcello is a yearly cy young candidate now after his 2016.
If anything, Houston will be buying high on Q, especially for the speculated package(s).
Q > McHugh, and yes, it’s not close, but half a season of 2017 can really close that gap.
It’s not worth Martes and Tucker to upgrade from McHugh to Q, when out of a 3 year sample, Q was only substantially better 1 year (this year).
Plus McHugh had only 25 starts in 2014, and was still an over 4.2 WAR guy. Extrapolated over 32 starts, he’d have been a 5.4 WAR guy.
They have similar skill sets. McHugh has regressed mightily, even more so this year.
Q has had several solid years of performance, but only one over a 4 WAR, which was this year at over 5.
Buying him as a 5+ WAR guy is dangerous. Treat him as a 4 WAR pitcher, which is still very good, and puts him in the 25th-30th overall range for pitchers. That’s good, but that’s not “ACE” good. Unless you are one of those weak minded fans who think the top 32 pitchers are ace’s since they’d, theoretically, be at the top of someones rotation.
Luhnow will not give up a huge package for Quintana, the juice simply isn’t worth the squeeze. Our best prospects right now happen to be in positions where we do not have excellent depth at the major league level. It would be a horrible idea to trade those top prospects and “mortgage the future” for one player who only effects 20% of the games in a season.
If you can find top prospects in our system at 2B, SS, or 3B, then go for it.
I’d be shocked if the White Sox and Dodgers don’t have a tentative deal in place on the backburner actually.
At some point, the Astros will have to go for it. What’s more important, how the major league team fares, or how their minor league system ranks?
I don’t think you get it. They are going for it… they have an amazing young nucleus and have made some critical acquisitions that addressed their most glaring need THIS OFFSEASON. Yes they don’t have as strong of a rotation with the way it looks today but it’s certainly not atrocious. They became a playoff team in large part because of their player development. If management doesnt want to expend their top prospects, whom they see as impact players in the very near future, does that make them a team not willing to do what it takes to win, or a team that knows how important it is to stick to the formula that got them there in the first place? They’re cognizant of their current needs, primarily regarding their starting rotation. Once the market settles down and if the need is still there, then and only then, will they make another substantial move. It’s called being a smart business man. I swear, the people in these comments act like management doesn’t want to trade away their top prospects because they’re all best pals or something. It’s a cost/benefit analysis approach and it’s the primary reason for management in the first place!!
Agree. I would say their rotation is about league average. However, they have one of the best offenses in the league to counter that.
Let’s see what Martes, Musgrove, McCullers, McHugh, and Keuchel do before making a major move.
Martes may very well hit his FOTR potential. He’s ready for a taste in the bigs. Not enough to depend on this year, likely, but we can see if he has it or not.
Musgrove looks the likes of a dependable innings eater, like an early career Jordan Zimmerman (early Nats days) or a Homer Bailey type guy (again, early years).
McCullers definitely has FOTR stuff, but injuries have derailed him. See if he can start 30 in 2017.
Keuchel…. who knows. If he can balance out 2015 and 2016, He was better after the break, and his FIP suggests maybe he was a bit unlucky in 2016.
McHugh had two really solid years in 2014 and 2015 (his production was pretty similar to Quintana those years, even). Let’s see if he finds himself. He also had a better second half in 2016.
They need a wait and see. Their offense is good enough to keep them in at least a wild card spot. If their pitching and hitting is so bad they are out of it by the trade deadline, then a guy like Quintana won’t do much to change that anyway. If they are, then they can see what they have in Tucker, Martes + see who is producing in the bigs to see if they even need to pay for a guy like Q.
Stay the course. Or trade for Verlander. Only two options IMO.
I agree somewhat with “at some point”, but not for a one year wonder which could be what the Astros could amount to if they deplete their minor league potential. AT SOME POINT these guys who are almost ready or one year away should get a call to contribute. When you are talking about 3/4/5 in the rotation there are already a couple of guys in paulino/muskgrove/and feliez who could fit those rolls with adequate results. Keuchel/ and especially McCullers need to be healthy and McHugh can win 17-18 easily with the offense this lineup can produce if he can induce the ground ball consistently. Not saying that he is better than Q by any stretch, but with McCullers lack of durability so far the Astros may need to call on one of these guys sooner than later. Stick with your long term investment here guys because you drafted these kids for a reason.