There have been plenty of rumors connecting the Dodgers to Twins second baseman Brian Dozier over the past several weeks, and Yahoo’s Jeff Passan reports today that the Dodgers have now shown a willingness to include top pitching prospect Jose De Leon in a theoretical Dozier swap (Twitter links). Aaron Gleeman of Baseball Prospectus tweeted yesterday that discussions between the two sides are seemingly focused on what would come to Minnesota alongside De Leon. FanRag’s Jon Heyman tweeted today that multiple teams are inquiring with the Twins on Dozier. Heyman further tweets that the Twins like first base/outfield prospect Cody Bellinger as well, though it’s tougher to see the Dodgers parting with him.
De Leon, 24, would make for a high-profile headliner in a Dozier trade. The right-hander currently ranks second among Dodgers farmhands and 33rd league-wide, per MLB.com’s rankings. Fangraphs’ Eric Longenhagen rates him fourth in the Dodgers’ system, though that’s not so much a knock on De Leon as it is a vote of confidence in other L.A. prospects. De Leon entered the 2016 season ranked as a consensus top 30 prospect in the Majors and did little to dispel the notion that he merited such praise. An ankle injury and some shoulder inflammation limited De Leon’s time on the field, but when healthy he totaled 86 1/3 innings (16 starts) in the hitter-friendly Pacific Coast League and registered a pristine 2.61 ERA with 11.6 K/9 against 2.1 BB/9. He made his big league debut with the Dodgers as well, albeit with considerably less success; De Leon’s first four MLB starts resulted in a 6.35 ERA and a 15-to-7 K/BB ratio in a total of 17 innings. MLB.com praises him as a potential No. 2 starter, while Longenhagen feels he’s more of a mid-rotation arm with the potential for plus fastball command and a plus changeup.
In Dozier, the Dodgers would be acquiring a much-needed right-handed bat that can feast on left-handed pitching. Los Angeles was baseball’s worst team against lefties in 2016, but Dozier mashed southpaws at a .282/.352/.613 clip. Dozier’s 42 home runs last year thrust him into the national spotlight, but he’s quietly been an excellent player for the Twins in each of the past four seasons. He doesn’t hit for a high average, but Dozier draws enough walks to post solid OBP marks and has batted a collective .248/.326/.456 since 2013. His power output has increased in each of his Major League seasons, and he rates as a solid defensive second baseman that also contributes value through baserunning. Dozier has averaged 28 homers and 16 steals per season over the past four years and is controlled through the 2018 campaign at an affordable total of $15MM, giving him plenty of value from a financial standpoint as well.
New Twins execs Derek Falvey and Thad Levine have seemingly been open to listening on virtually any player in trade talks, but they’ve also indicated that they’re in no rush to move Dozier and would feel plenty comfortable heading into the 2017 season with him entrenched at second base. Given Dozier’s contract status, Minnesota could certainly extract considerable value for his services this summer or even next winter as well.
Right handed bat. 2nd baseman. Get err done Twins!
Don’t get rid of de Leon even though his stats weren’t good in his first 17 innings still has a high ceiling
If a deal gets done de leon better be the only top 100 prospect. If not freidman will have traded 4 of them in 6 months and that would be affecting the grand plan too much
JDL is a huge risk with the shoulder injury. You also have Walker Buehler and Yadier Alvarez, among others coming.
Not to mention, you are trading for a power hitting 2B in his prime.
Dookie Howser, MD
The Braves traded for a power hitting second baseman in his prime once. Then he turned into Dan Uggla
Because they are all the same! Read also: Dozier has defensive and baserunning value
“JDL is a huge risk with the shoulder injury”
Shoulder injuries are real bad.
Must be in the deal.
It’s Dozior or Phillips from Nat’s or let the Cubs beat that butt rocks
You cannot expect to get a top player like Dozier for only one “top 100” PROSPECT.
De Leon is MLB ready, for one. For another, it’s a bit of an exaggeration to call Dozier a “top player” unless he can suddenly hit for both power AND average.
from 2013 – 2016 dozier is 23rd in fWAR, 12th in BSR, has a 113 wRC+ and slightly-above-or-below average defense depending on your favorite favorite metric, hasn’t played fewer than 147 games, and is cost-controlled at $15 million for the next two seasons.
aside from carpenter and zobrist, he has been the best 2B in the league; does that really not constitute a top player?
Get your WAR flavors here. We got ’em all, whichever one you like, it’s always a good choice.
Dude only people who never played baseball in their life value war and all those super analytical stats. Matt carpenter is not even close to top 3 talent at his position which is why those garbage war stats can easily be dismissed
Baseball front offices – filled with people who played baseball at its highest level – value WAR and all “those super analytical stats.” In fact, every major league team now has an analytics department. Playing the game isn’t some measure of how well one is able to look at data.
You’re joking right? I don’t think Carpenter is a top-3 3B right now (not close really), but why is it that you need to have to have played baseball at a high level to analyze player value?
War and wrc+ are not what most people value players off of. It is the kind of stuff that tells you brandon crawford is the best ss in baseball which isnt true
lmao actually WAR and wRC+ would tell you seager is the best SS in baseball
Dodgerfan711 shows us he’s done yelling at clouds
Actually, it would tell you that Corey Seager, Manny Machado(if you want to count him as a ss) and Fransico Lindor are all better than Crawford. But I’m sure that the dodgerfan711 eye ball test is far more reliable than silly advanced stats.
And ready to start telling people to get off his lawn.
i overlooked 4 2B somehow that have been better than Dozier over the same time frame: Cano, Kinsler, Pedroia, and Altuve. silly me
Your right. God forbid someone looks at batting average and on base percentege to value a player. You realize MLB players think all these super analytical stats are ridiculous.And yes my eye test is better you know why? Advanced stats told andrew freidman to sign brett anderson for 15 million dollars. Brandon mccarthey 48 million. Jason heyward 184 million. You actually need to see how the guy plays not just check him on a piece of paper
WAR was created for fantasy baseball, not the kind played on grass and dirt.
Ya, the way the guy plays is what makes those stats. There’s a reason all front offices use this and dinosaur stats like batting average and whip are getting weeded out
The fact that you think “advanced stats told” friedman to do that just goes to show that you aren’t even worth having a conversation with.
That’s just simply being ignorant to change. I don’t understand how looking at how good a player is could be strictly limited to fantasy baseball. Again, if what you’re saying is true, why do all MLB teams invest heavily in analytic departments?
Batting average is a dinasour stat?? The only dinosaur stat is wins for pitchers but thats it. Your telling me daniel murphy who batted 400 for nearley 4 months and never below 345 the entire season should be ignored. You are clueless and probably think jason heyward was a superstar prior to 2016
What makes those stats is a statistical formula composed of dozens if not hundreds of assumptions.
By all advanced analytics you could imagine -ncluding WAR and wrc+, Corey Seager is the best SS in baseball. Crawford would be behind several others – Lindor, Machado (if you want to count him as a shortstop), Correa and Bogaerts if you just focus on offense. Crawford is an elite defensive shortstop, the best non-Simmons shortstop in baseball, and defense counts too. Crawford has a higher walk rate and lower K rate than even Seager. He’s actually really good. Just not the best.
Why the heck else did brandon mccarthey get 48 million dollars. It sure wasnt his performance with arizona. Are you going to just call people out or actually back your stuff up with an argument. Stop acting like a 13 year old. There were advanced stats during mccartheys short time with the yankees that were great and the dodgers were convinved by it. How else could someone get DFAed then get a big contract 5 months later? You gonna respond or just call me names again
No I know Murphy was good because he had a 157 ops plus. I don’t care about the least important number in his slash line.
And by your standards you probably think Bautista was brutal at hitting this past year. That is far from the truth
Tell that to the Cubs, who have the most advanced analytics department in baseball and just won the most games and the World Series. Or tell that to Arizona and Philadelphia, the last teams to use advanced analytics, as they’ve suffered through the last few years of putrid baseball.
So you’re going to blame the Dodgers for McCarthy being hurt? Damn to bad the WAR formula didn’t tell them that was going to happen
Actually, if you look at a standard 5X5 Fantasy league, the stats they use aren’t very useful in advanced analytics (BA/RBI/HR/SB/WHIP/Pitcher Wins, etc.)
How did he do it? Because Andrew Friedman decided that he would be a good investment and that signing a bunch of injury prone pitchers would be a good use of resources. Advanced stats didn’t ‘tell him” to do it.
According to ops + in 2016 david ortiz was the 2nd best hitter in baseball while kris bryant was 9th. Daniel murphy was 6th. All 3 of those are false and not giving murphy and bryant respect. Jose Bautista did have a brutal season especially in that ballpark and if he didnt then why isnt he even getting offered a 1year deal by any team not named the blue jays
Go look at bautistas ops and tell me how awful he was. And obviously they’re not false since they’re park adjusted. And finally are you bautistas agent and can confirm that he has no offers besides from the blue Jays?
Daniel murphy was a top 3 hitter in baseball last year. Dj lemahieu was a top 10. Not stats but common sense tells me that and your precious ops + didnt even have someone that won the batting title as a top 10 hitter. Thats why that special advanced stat is a bunch of garbage. Mabey if Bautista wasnt so busy talking trash in the alcs and better at hitting he would be employed at the moment
Oh god I just realized you’re putting most of your value in batting average. I’ll pray for you.
Ok prey for me. You can go worship jason heyward and Bautista
And I by no means think advanced stats are perfect, they’re just the best information that’s around. They don’t punish players for getting on base a lot despite having a low average (Bautista) or view all hits as the same. Batting average views a single the exact way it views a home run, which is obviously not right.
Using Heyward is a pretty stupid example. By wRC+ he was 50 points worse in 2016 than he was in 2015. I think that actually does a pretty good job of showing just how futile his offensive game was.
I love that your counter argument is just, “I don’t agree, so they are wrong!”
Couldn’t have said it better myself
I can literally say the exact same thing in response. He dismissed batting average like it was nothing which is basically saying the same thing
McCarthy’s history should have told them he was going to get hurt. He’s always hurt.
That’s not an advanced stat debate though. And batting average Is very overrated
War is a made up opinion stat vs an invisible player… no thanks!
Yeah? Made up? What part of it makes you think that? Just curious. What metric is “made up?”
@Dodgerfan711 You’re correct. I pay little or no attention to WAR, it’s an opinion, it isn’t a statistic, and I agree with you, those quoting WAR all the time obviously have never played the game of baseball.
Now, even if you are conversant with BRR and FRAA, there remains one little problem in accepting the notion that WAR is a relevant tool with which to evaluate and separate players.
It’s ultimately based on a judgment. It’s not a statistic!
This “replacement player” who constitutes the very linchpin of the entire premise is mythical. There is nothing measurable or precise about his existence. Yet supposedly intelligent people have signed off on this utterly bogus piece of baseball idiocy.
So… you realize the stats the you use to determine how good someone is…. is used in sabermetrics for more advanced calculations. It’s like saying wins don’t mean anything to determine who goes to the playoffs.
They are literal calculations of what a player does.
But the replacement player is just a spot on the line. You could change where it’s set, and it would change what the numbers mean (is 3 WAR a lot?) but wouldn’t change the relative values (4 is still greater than 3).
WAR helps with sorting, and with comparing players who play different positions and contribute in different ways. It’s not perfect, and anyone who says it is obviously doesn’t understand it. But it’s a useful tool. And many of the underlying performance factors that feed into it are actually much purer measurements/statistics than their more commonly known brethren (e.g., RBI/pitcher wins).
If the Dodgers wanted to pursue Profar as an alternative to Dozier, what would the price look like?
The Real Sid Bream?
Either way, agreed. The most frequently cited value of WAR is one of its most significant flaws: it tries to state a relative, comparable value for dissimilar things. The only way to do that accurately is by markets. Any other method is just a guess (or as you’ve called it, an opinion). People who fancy themselves as smart stock-pickers for instance play a similar game of pretending to know values better than do the markets as a whole. Almost invariably they actually don’t.
The second most significant flaw is the second-most cited value of this stat: that it combines a laundry list of statistical measures into one, handy number. The problem is this requires a validated statistical model that is based on validated data. Small changes in assumptions (and in this case, weighting) will have large consequences for the output of the model. A lot of the data going into the WAR models is not stable (defensive metrics, especially). So as they say in programming, GIGO.
So bottom line, just spouting that number as if it is the Statistic that Rules Them All and automatically ends every debate, is pretty much nonsense from word go.
I played D 1 and a few years of Indy ball, and I love advanced stats. Go back to your shanty.
Anybody who uses WAR that heavy handed is using it irresponsibly. It is not a conclusive evaluation of a player, but it is the closest approximation of value we have publicly available to us.
WAR should be used often, it should just be used in conjunction with other numbers (wOBA/FIP/etc).
‘DJ LeMahieu was a top 10 hitter in baseball’
Do you consider park factors when you make those assessments? Or is altitude mythical as well?
Thanks BlueSkyLA & Jeff, nice input., and I agree with you both. For me, too much weight or notice is being given to WAR. It may be a useful tool, but it has gained a lot of, or too much traction amongst some commentators, commenters, and ‘experts’. A tool or a guide maybe, but it should not be used as evidence to say player A is better than player B on account of their ‘WAR’.
DJ Lemahieu also needed help from his manager to win that “batting title,” remember? Talk about an overrated statistic.
Or do you take into consideration that Lemahieu needed an, ahem, “assist” from his manager in the last week to win that “batting title”?
Talk about an overrated statistic.
Who did Friedman or zaidi play for again? Epstein?
The Dodgers fo liked McCarthy from Oakland days. Period
He said carp at 2nd, which he would be top 3 most definitely. Dozier hits closer to mendoza line than 300. A .320 obp is laughable , forget metrics, play baseball. Even carp at 3rd is better than most. Would you not take him over justin turner. Baseball people HAVE to look at metrics in front office, doesnt mean baseball people can’t just give the eye test.
I agree with you that sometimes the eye test is best. That said I’ve seen plenty of Dozier. He’s the real deal. You’ll be hard pressed to find a kid that works harder. He’s harder on himself than any stat or metric could ever be. He’s a consummate professional on and off the field. Kid plays all star defense. Plus he’s getting better all the time. A student of the game. The year he had last year was one of a kind. He flat out sucked to open the year. Terrible. But he stayed focused and worked hard and he numbers show. But there is much more to this kid than metrics alone. That is why he’ll cost more than one top 100 prospect.
Philadelphia was the last major league team to create an analytics department. They didn’t give out any bad contracts, right? Oh, I mean besides a whole bunch of them.
Arizona ignored advanced stats under Stewart and Larussa and all they did was trade three good prospects for an average pitcher, then hand a 207 million dollar contract to a pitcher over 30.
Dozier needs more of a track record before he is conisdered a top player. Batting average is too inconsistent. The trade market has been destroyed by teams overpaying for decent but not great players. Shelby miller, eaton, pomeranz, ect
Dozier has been a pretty good player for 4 years. He’s amassed about 18 WAR in those 4 years. I think that’s a pretty solid track record for a middle infielder.
WAR over the last 4 seasons …
Playing in anonymity doesn’t negate a player’s track record. He’s going to bring back a much larger prospect haul than fans expect.
Well said. Players are hard to predict. For the previous two years Dozier has been all power for the first half of the season and no batting average. Then last year he puts it together. Is last year a new trend line or a career year? My bet is a career year. Plus his “power” won’t play in the LA marine layer. Dodgers need pitching keep DeLeon
Dozier has 4 years of track record. Hes averaged 4.5 WAR over each of his last 4 seasons. That’s a top player right there. Eaton was also a top player but the difference between the two is that eaton had 3 more years of control….
That’s the little fact twins fans keep leaving out when they compare Dozier to Eaton. If they want to say Dozier and Eaton are equal value I’ll accept that, so by their logic the prospect package for Dozier should be 40% of the package for Eaton.
I don’t get people… Adam Eaton is a top 15 player in the sport based off of production…
And he plus premier defense in RF.
I could easily nalame 15 players better then eaton if you want to go there
Go for it, but I’ll set some standards before you do.
We includedefense, and only use statistics from the last 3 seasons.
I absolutely wish you luck.
Probably would prefer the last 2 seasons of Betts and Bryant over the last three of Eaton.
I’m an Eaton fan as well.
In no particular order. Arenado, bryant, rizzo, trout, betts, machado, both seagers, posey , donaldson, votto, miggy, freeman, goldschmidt, murphy, lemahieu, altuve, bogarts and thats just off the top of my head and 18
But if you are expecting what Eaton brought back, forget it. Eaton has 5 yrs of control, at a lower rate per year, than Dozier’s 2 year at $15 MM per.
Does that list include defense? Base running?
There’s just way too much emphasis on batting average here. Dozier doesn’t do one thing well – hit for a high average. Virtually everything else on a baseball field he does well. He draws walks, he hits for power, plays good defense, is a good baserunner and a good base-stealer, avoids hitting into double plays. If you’re going to evaluate a player I’d ignore the least useful statistic and focus on all the things he does well. And Minnesota was just a slightly better park for hitters than Dodger Stadium.
Agreed This ain’t fantasy BB Twins get your money
Except he spun 2 that the Dodgers essentially obtained for nothing. Peralta and Montas. So they weren’t even Dodger properly long enough to cry about it. Plus I don’t get the outcry over Holmes. He know looks to a slotted for reliever after his major control issues. They’ve also brought in 2 more this year with Buehler making a 3rd once healthy. So that sort of nets rather than loses. So lose two but welcome three 1. You can’t keep every prospect. And not every top 100 prospect pans I.E. Dodgers very own Lee and Anderson.
Maybe I’m mistaken, but I thought the grand plan was to win the World Series? Dozier puts them a lot closer to that than DeLeon.
The plan is to be in position to win the World Series every year
People value prospects way too high on here, they are just prospects….
You are trading for a top 5 second basemen you need to give up a good sum to get one… you offer 1 top 100 prospect and some other garbage prospects, i laugh in your face and hang up.
The real LA team is an organization with the desire to win. The fake LA team, that’s not even in LA County…. is a completely lost organization.
Why not get a new team then ?
since it seems to be such a pain to be a fan of the Angels
No pain. Facts are facts. Organization is lost. Dodgers go after one of the better 2B in the game. The Angels settle for a 2B that can’t hit his way out of a wet paper bag.
Just become a dodger fan bro, i personally will welcome you to our fandom. None of that “we dont want you” crap.
If you wanna cheer for a good team we have one. Well make the playoffs for the next decade because were effing smart. And eventually well win one a la 90s braves. With enough playoff appearances, inevitability becomes a foregone conclusion
One of us! One of us! One of us!
What 2B were you hoping for ? As there aren’t any good free agent 2B and they can’t trade for a top tier 2B
I don’t think the Angels have the prospects to compete with the Dodgers and some other teams for a top tier 2B like Dozier.
Root for the Padres!
They don’t so that’s what I’m asking who was he expecting the angels to get ?
You need to have some patience. Your new GM inherited an impossible situation. They need time to figure it out. Angels will be good once again.
Agree halo Shane is not a real fan
I’d disagree since he refuses to switch teams
I am a real Angels fan. I just speak factually. Now days people don’t like that…. That’s okay, I am not gonna stop.
More like you see everything as a negative and because they aren’t the top team you don’t find a single thing maybe other than trout good. So my question is who did you have in mind that the Angels get to play 2nd ?
Dodgers: Brain Dozier
Twins: Jose De Leon, Micah Johnson, and Jordan Sheffield
You’re right bluesky, that’s not nearly enough.
I’d be okay with that. I’m a Dodgers fan.
Twins: Bellinger, De Leon, Sheffield
Dodgers: Dozier, Another Kershaw Laugher in the Playoffs, First Round Exit, Become the Clippers of Baseball
1st of all theres no way the dodgers are trading bellinger in any circumstance. Kershaw carried the dodgers through the postseason, just because he lost the last game doesent mean it was on him. And the NLCS is not the 1st round. Try again goober
Kershaws had like three bad innings in his playoff career.
Dodgers: Brian Dozier
Twins: Jose DeLeon, Brock Stewart and Trayce Thompson
I’d be completely fine with that trade and feel like it’s a reasonable give and take for both sides
Seems decently fair maybe leaning a little LA’s way. That could work though.
I imagine that Minnesota would like a good prospect instead of Thompson
Understand unequivocally that if your trade proposal “leans a little LA’s way,” the trade *WILL NOT* happen. The twins have no obligation to move Dozier but are listening to offers/seeing if they can get a “wow” deal. if they don’t they will be thrilled to pay 6 million this year to keep dozier on the team. Star player, historic season, cheap contract, he has a large fan base, and quite obviously a sellers market. He’ll only get moved for the moon.
Especially considering the twins have a new GM and if his first major move is to trade away their top player (by a long shot) for anything less than impact playerS, he’ll lose the fans before he even begins.
I’m with angelsfan. Haloshane if you hate the Angels so much then quit being a fan of their team and root for the Dodgers or some other team. If everything the Angels do bothers you so much why continue to be a fan?
Prediction; DeLeon, Calhoun and a Lowe level player not on the 40-man roster for Dozier
nobody wants calhoun all bat and nothing else
Maybe, but there aren’t many teams looking for a second baseman. I don’t think that the Dodgers will bid against themselves.
To be good at hitting is the best thing you can do as a position player. Have bat, will travel.
Nobody wants mark Lowe on their team
Twins: Jose De Leon, Yadier Alverez, Ronny Brito, Chris Anderson
Dodgers: Brian Dozier
De Leon, Puig, Alvarez, Wood
I hear they’d also throw in all the men’s room fixtures at Dodger Stadium but you’d have to remove them yourself.
Exactly Blue Sky, you forgot a lifetime supply of Dodger Dogs
They can have the urinals but they ain’t getting my Dodger Dogs.
Keep the urinals……..I don’t ever want to see those troughs again!
They are out for delivery. The UPS truck is just down the street.
HAHAHA why don’t we throw in Bellinger and Verdugo also?
Nobody gets Bellinger unless we get a new 1stbasemen since Agonz time is almost up. Simple as that, we arent gunna give him up without a backup plan in place. As of now Bellinger himself is the backup plan and thats that. Inb4 a twins fan says no bellinger no dozier. Fine go get a lesser package and well go get another 2ndbasemen. All that would be doing is creating a hole at 1stbase instead of 2nd
Back to fantasy dodgertwins trades:
What about calhoun and deleon, plus 2 more prospects ranked 30-40ish in our system. Our system is extremely deep so even those are full of potential. Or would it have to be dudes ranked 20-25ish???? Mehh i think thatd be too much id pass
I like dozier. But i dont see to many other teams ponying up liek the dodgers can. Not down to bid against outselves
As a White Sox fan, we will deal you Lawrie and his $3.5 million deal. Won’t cost a lot.
I think the big question is how to the Twins view De Leon. Does his injury history concern them enough?
Twins: De Leon, Buehler, and De Jong
JDL, puig, Verdugo, Alvarez two of those and a guy like sheffield lux stewart and maybe twins can take a starting pitching contract they dont need
Yadier Alvarez and Alex Verdugo is a good return for Minnesota.
Alvarez will not be dealt. FO is very, very high on him. I would think Bellinger is more likely to be traded than this kid.
I’d make a trade including DeLeon but I would not include Bellinger. I’m good at playing GM. I always tend to favor my Dodgers in my trade scenarios lol but I think they can get a deal done without giving Bellinger in the deal.
yea id take a guy like Verdugo or Alvarez and a better 3rd prospect then a deleon and bellinger trade
I’d rather trade Deleon. Alvarez has potential to be a number one arm and by the end of this year he will be regarded as one of the best RH in the minors watch. When it comes to verdugo I do not see him being anything more than MLB average give the twins :Deleon , verdugo and Barnes and you got a deal
I could see LA try to get Kintzler in the deal too since they might be losing Blanton
Twins need arms.
They should be careful not to over-haggle their way into picking at the top of the draft for another decade.
Don’t do it, find a lesser RHB 2B and keep the farm. We have a surplus of MLB assets to be giving up high upside top prospects. Their demands are too high if it’s DeLeon and Bellinger!
Have Barnes play 2nd, he has better range than Dozer. Keep the Farm, don’t throw it away
Look I get it and I totally understand but at some point you have to layer the farm. This farm has so many like pieces at the top. You have 3 LH positional guys in a top heavy LH lineup. In which all three will most likely see time in the OF. So is the plan to have a 7-8 man LH lineup next year? In pitching terms Urias, Stewart,DeLeon, Strip, DeJong, Oaks,Sborz they will be at some point on the MLB roster or AAA roster. White, Abbdullah, Sheffield, and Buehler will also most likely see time on the AA roster. The dodgers need is a 2b that can play good defense maybe not spectacular, but makes the routine play. They also need someone who can hit towards the top of the lineup against LH. What I’m more interested is whether Dozier’s new change in approach will allow his to get on base at the .350 clip he did last year. Does he need to hit 40 hrs no. But 20 at 2b with a high obp( which I’m skeptical about) and runs well would lengthen this lineup which is all the dodgers are truly looking for.
So if they truly have pause about DeLeon’s decreasing fb velo and his inability to develop the SL/Cu then it’s time to move him. And I absolutely love watching JDL throw. All in all you can’t keep the whole farm.
DeLeon, Diaz and Oaks.
I have been big on De Leon for a couple of years now. With that said, he’s not getting any younger and they’ve taken their sweet time getting him to the majors. He will be 24 1/2 at the start of next season. If they want to trade him, now is the time.
Don’t know why Pittsburgh isn’t in on this!
what part? do they have a 2b to trade that hits the cover off leftys? or are you saying they should trade pitching plus for Dozier?
Minnesota is collecting arms and trading off young controllable arms in Glasnow and Taillon is not what the Pirates are looking to do
Is Dozier that good, Lets see what he does this yr. Dodgers giving top pitching prospect can’t believe that.
I love that the Dodgers have “shown a willingness” to include De Leon. As if they were getting Dozier without him PLUS a number of other TOP prospects. Dozier is a prime commodity, and the Dodgers are going to have to pay up the you know what for him.
So is Urias just deemed untouchable? That is the arm that The Twins should be going for.. maybe it takes more than Dozier but adding 1-2 mid level prospects should start a conversation I would think? Any insight from the LA market here?
Urias would be about as untouchable as they come. Not only is he an excellent prospect who has already shown he can handle the big show at age 20, from a marketing perspective, the Dodgers see Fernandomania Revisited.
Urias is a non conversation starter. He was a no go for Sale and that’s not including the others who brought his name up ever since A-
The only way Urias is going would be in a deep package for Mike Trout. The Dodgers would have to sell the farm and the Angels would have to find a way to placate season ticket holders of their own version of a “process.”
So yeah unless the above happens, Urias is part of the Dodgers future. Untouchable.
This guy gets it. If the Twins want Urias, be prepared to included Buxton.
Are we talking pre-2014 Buxton when his value was its highest? Because right now, I don’t think adding him gets you even close to Urias.
Buxton? Dude has minimal value right now. He looks to be a bust. Never really thought highly of him, so I can’t say that I’m surprised.
yea a bust at 22 years old he was a raw high school player. after his he was called back up in september he batted .287/357/.653/1.011 with 9 hrs in 29 games that plus he is already a top 5 defensive center fielder
Here’s a tip for you: the vast majority of “raw” high school players turn out to be colossal busts. So far, Buxton has done nothing to convince us otherwise. Wow, he had a great, fluke month… HOF-bound?
Does he have time to turn it around? Absolutely. Will he? I highly, highly doubt it.
thats 30 game period is 25% of his big league at bats.. so he had a great 25% of his career. i guess rookies who have a 2 war are complete busts now.
No, not yet. Again, he still has time to turn it around. I just seriously doubt that he will. He was lauded as the #1 prospect in all of baseball. Would have expected him to manage a better than 40% K rate, wouldn’t you?
yes but that is a mix of being young and the twins system as a whole look at all the K rates with all of there young guys once they get to the majors sano, kepler, buxton and others all of there K rates sky rocketed after they got to the majors and worked with the old hitting coach buxton and keplers rates almost doubled
If I were the Twins, I would prefer DeLeon to Urias. DeLeon has already built up innings on his arm, as compared to Urias. By the time Urias actually develops, where they wont have to watch his innings, he will be a FA. While DeLeon is not as talented, he will provide more during his early years, in my estimation. He will also allow me to ask for better additional players.
That makes no sense. De Leon is 24, while Urias is 20. De Leon is a righty, Urias is a lefty. De Leon is talented, Urias is highly talented. In the past three years, De Leon has thrown 222 innings, Urias has thrown 289. So, Urias is actually more ready to handle a bigger workload then De Leon. Of course De Leon will allow you to ask for better players because he’s a lot less valuable than Urias. Urias is a game changer, De Leon is a very good prospect. Did you put any thought at all to your post?
Shush now. Maybe the Twins are thinking the same way.
i like how over the same 3 years jose berrios has pitched 475 innings idk if they have had lots of injuries or not or it just show the difference in bring alone starting pitching prospects from the twins to the dodgers
Ehh not necessarily. Different stories. Berrios was drafted as a high school product 2 years older than when Urias signed. So they did manipulate his innings. And he probably would have thrown more last year except the team encouraged him to get elective cosmetic eye surgery which he did. It broke up his season. DeLeon was a college kid coming off a what 80 plus ip season in 13. So in total he was about 140 ip in 2013. So they backed him off in 14. He was kind of out of shape. In 15 he jumped back up in ip. Last year they started him late to have him available for playoffs then he rushed back had a nagging injury or two. So the younger ones they baby a little but the college kids they usually put more of a workload on.
Yes jdl is a college guy so why in 4 years has he only pitched like 350 innings while berrios is a high schooler that has pitched over 600 innings in 5 years so de leons durability and never pitching more then 115 innings kinda scares me
I just explained why. He threw about 140 inn in 2013, because Southern abuses their SPs. So they backed him off the next year. He was also out of shape in 2014 and it wasn’t until he got back into shape and started later that he finally became a prospect. However you want to spin it PR is all academies and no high school baseball so we’re not talking about the high school or college innings guys throw in the US. So you can kind of stretch guys out a little further if you draft them. Also understand the Dodgers are a perennial playoff contender so they back guys off and start guys late if they believe they have a chance to contribute. If they don’t believe they have opportunities that year I.e. guys like Sborz will throw pretty significant innings. It’s all really a case to case. The Dodgers also didn’t expect the rash of pitching injuries to start the year so the idea of starting DeLeon late was ill advised. It was probably a little ill advised for DeLeon to diet with gf who is Olympic tennis player lol. Although that always makes for a good story.
Out of shape and diets things you don’t want to hear with prospects lol or maybe im just spoiled because i followed berrios career and there can’t be that many players who work harder his off season training he has posted very offen the last couple years are crazy
Haha you seriously can’t compare how hard he’s worked. He came in from a college that is underfunded and a joke of a weight training program. That’s never been a knock and he’s always been praised for his work ethic. You seem to be trying to find a way to not like DeLeon.
I like him but i just know know him that well have not followed him i think if he is in the trade the twins need to pull the trigger id just rather have Alvarez cause he has the stuff of a number 1 de loen is more of a number or 2 if he can get a little more veolasity back
Forget the Twins. Get a more consistent 2nd baseman in Forsythe. Rays get Verdugo, Trayce Thompson,Calhoun and Jacob Rhame. Rays add Mahtook and Chih Wei Hu to the deal.
No go, dude. Not enough for the Rays. Stop making one sided trades!
Since you’re so willing to give the Rays more, would throwing in DeLeon make you happy? Would the Dodgers than be paying through the “you know what”, if they sent the #’s 25, 44 and 98th prospects in baseball along with a useful OF’er and hard throwing young ML bullpen arm for two years of a very good second baseman, a good young arm prospect and a replacement level OF’er.?
Hey, take out Hu and Mahtook and make it a five for one Then maybe you’ll be fine with the Rays return.
One thing I don’t think people acknowledge enough is how baseball is becoming a young man’s game. Amateur baseball is more competitive than ever. Young people are ready for the big leagues more and more every year. These prospects are indeed volatile (like every baseball player), but they’re getting more dependable by the year.
Give it up, dude. That return is lopsided in the Dodgers favor. It will not get you Forsythe. Period.
The Dodgers are going to keep Urias. Bellinger has to be untouchable since he is Gonzalez’ replacement. I hope the Dodgers keep DeLeon. I think he could be the fifth starter in 2017 after Kershaw, Hill, Maeda, and Urias. See if Kazmir can turn into another Blanton. At this point, McCarthy and Ryu cannot be counted on to be healthy. Stripling and Stewart can be the emergency starters. Trade Puig or Thompson along with Buehler and Calhoun. If the Twins want more, go after Forsythe instead. Friedman and his friend in Tampa Bay can probably work something out much easier anyway.
the twins needpitching not 2 outfielders and 22 year old DH
Buehler is a pitching prospect… He was a late first rounder out of Vanderbilt in 2015. Pretty solid prospect…
he is about the only prospect in that trade that the twins would have value in
The Twins should be looking for as much talent as possible, in whatever shape it comes in.
They are just not bowling balls
Bellinger and Urias along with Seager and Joc is going to be the core that wins us a world series in a few seasons. I cant imagine any of the 4 would be traded for anything less than Mike Trout.
I don’t see why Minnesota would hesitate at a trade of Wood, De Leon, and maybe someone like Hernandez or Thompson and a low level proaspect for Dozier.
It seems like the closest thing to a win win for both sides.
Minnesota will not be near contention by the time Dozier’s contract expires and he will be expensive by then most likely.. Might as well add some pieces that you can develop and will control for a long time and could help get your team back on track.
The Dodgers are apparentley willing to trade their top Pitching Prospect: Jose De Leon in a prospect package for Brian Dozier. This shows that
1. The Dodgers are shooting for the best option at 2nd at the cost of good prospects, which is something they have been avoiding for years
2. Connecting to no.1 the Dodgers believe they have enough rotational depth for 2017 and beyond and think their lefty trouble and 2B hole a larger priority. And they believe in Dozier enough to pay that price.
I believe the Ideal situation for the Dodgers would have been to find a satisfying in-house 2B option (Austin Barnes perhaps), then keeping Ruiz, and using the farm to buy a young controllable starter (Chris Sale, Chris Archer). However this is clearly not the case. I still think that a Logan Forsythe Chris Archer is the ideal answer but I also believe that the Dodgers have already looked into this and couldn’t match the prospect price that the Rays wanted. The Dodgers have a great farm system but the reason why they haven’t pulled off grand trades (see: Chris Sale to Boston, Adam Eaton to Nationals) is because their tradeable farm is actually a bit shallow on the top prospect side.
Cody Bellinger (Dodgers #1 Prospect, #32 MLB)
has been deemed untouchable, as with Yadier Alvarez (#91). The only reason Alvarez is that low is because he’s still so raw and in-experienced. Barring injury he can be a top 5 Pitching Prospect by this time next year, and that will be the beginning, he has astronomical upside.
Jose De Leon(#33), Alex Verdugo(#46),and Willie Calhoun(#87) should be tradeable along with lower prospects like Walker Buehler, Jordan Sheffield, Brock Stewart, Josh Sborz, and Chase de Jong.
The Twins supposedly like Stewart so he’s likely to be included. I don’t like the idea of trading him becuase he’s a hard throwing arm which the Dodgers are kinda short on. Regardless a realistic package for Dozier would probably be along the lines of
Jose De Leon, Alex Verdugo, Brock Stewart, Walker Buehler
Jose De Leon, Willie Calhoun, Brock Stewart, Jordan Sheffield.
However both of these don’t seem quite right so I think maybe a 3 team trade needs to be worked out. How about something like
Los Angeles Dodgers get Brian Dozier, sends Jose De Leon, Brock Stewart to Minnesota Twins, Alex Verdugo, Omar Estevez, Kyle Farmer, to Cincinatti Reds, Reds send Amir Garret to Minnesota Twins.
Thats the #33 and #45 Prospects going to Minnesota. Cincinatti gets a pretty much same level prospect back in Verdugo, they need some sure prospects in the OF while their future rotation looks strong. They also get some more positional depth.
How does it look? Please leave some comments and tell me your opinion!!
Chris Sale already got traded, bud.
I said that he went to Boston please I keep track of my news
Except you can’t take prospect ranking too serious because of the constant fluctuations Bellinger will be a top 10 prospect by mid season if not end of the year assuming he keeps performing.
You just turned this into a five player for 1 trade for a 2b with two years of control that hasn’t shown the consistency in the obp or ops section to warrant it. Why would the dodgers bid up their offer? Serious they are giving up a potential high end number 2. If a DeLeon, Stewart, Verdugo package is not good enough then see where things are at midseason or go after Forsythe which I like more as an overall baseball player. But regardless you don’t bid yourself up.
Unless you’re the Orioles, then you bid against yourself for Chris Davis.
IF the dodgers are really willing to make this big of a blunder move they better get something else as well in return. We do not need to out source to other teams for spots. We should give our farm system a chance because we have tons of promising prospects. Acts like this is what creates holes in certain positions when we need them and cramps up other positions when we really didn’t need the fill in.
Seager-Dorzier will give LA a nice duo up the middle. Is just like having Kershaw and Jansen witch they do of course !!!
Giants and Rox’s will have to load up heavily if they want to upset another LA DT in 2017 !!!
Problem is Giants didn’t need a DT to get a shiny ring
The Twins supposedly like Stewart so he’s likely to be included. I don’t like the idea of trading him becuase he’s a hard throwing arm which the Dodgers are kinda short on. Regardless a realistic package for Dozier would probably be along the lines of
Jose De Leon, Willie Calhoun, Walker Buehlre, Brock Stewart
JDL, Alex Verdugo, Imani Abdullah
I walk at either of this prices. Keep Dozier, I’d rather go for Lawrie, or stay in house and let Barnes/Kiké play for a couple months before I re-evaluate.
Nobody who actually understands WAR thinks it’s the be-all end-all of player evaluation.
Nobody who actually understands WAR thinks it’s a bunch of arbitrary nonsense, either.
Agreed. And well said. WAR like any other stat, is just another way to evaluate a player. However it evaluates players more overall and that’s why many people like to use it as their main stat. However WAR takes offensive and defensive numbers on a different scale that we might think, for example, Adam Eaton in supposedly a 6WAR player, which is higher than Corey Seager’s 5.5. We know that Eaton’s has superb defense and baserunning skills, that but to the average eye does it outset Seager’s large advantages in BA, HR and so? That’s way we also need to consider Offensive and Defensive stats, Baserunning stats seperatley along with WAR because you can’t stack up a HR next to a nice defensive play. In other words, try to avoid using WAR as your only proof; but if you can only use 1 stat then yes, WAR is a good overall stat.
Yeah, WAR is a tool. It’s much more useful than evaluating players by batting average only. That’s why the major analytics sites – fangraphs, BP, etc – use a lot of scouting and other kinds of analysis to evaluate players.
I think the people who don’t like WAR evaluate players on offense only. They can’t understand or choose to ignore that defense and baserunning count too. A run saved is as valuable as a run created. It’s why Heyward maintained some value after a terrible season at the plate.
As a Padre fan, I remember when Rickey Henderson joined the team. His bat speed by then had disappeared, and he batted something like 240 without much power. But he drew 125 walks, scored 100 runs, stole 40 bases. He was valuable, about as valuable as Tony Gwynn, who hit 353 that year. The team went to the postseason in ’96 for the first time in forever, and it’s not hard to say that the addition of Henderson was a major part of that. (Huge seasons from Finley, Caminiti and Hoffman helped too). But Rickey was valuable in ways that aren’t measured by batting average.
I say Dodgers go after Quintana and Lawrie and thrown in De Leon….Calhoun….Puig and 2 more prospects….the White Sox could use Puig to offset some RF production lost with the Eaton trade and they get a solid return of prospects….the Calhoun kid can play 2B if he works on his defense or he can be their DH….Puig has talent and maybe a change of scenery will revive that talent….the Dodgers get a 2B with less power but can still hit 15-20 HRs and they get a stud starter….
By 2 more prospects I mean top 25-30 not top 100….
If you think the white soxs are taking that ur crazy you saw what they asked the astros for quintana
It never hurts to try as the White Six are in full rebuild now so if I am the Dodgers I offer them a package headlined by De Leon and Puig….then go from there….throw on Alex Wood too
the asked for Bregman and didnt lower the asking price so they would be asking for urias or bellinger and deleon
They asked for Martes, Tucker, and Musgrove for Q according to the report… They asked for Bregman in a package for Sale.
The point remains the same though. They’d be looking for Bellinger + DeLeon + a young MLB pitcher with some upside. I don’t think they’d be interested in one of LA’s injury-prone pitchers, so someone like Brock Stewart probably. If not him, they’d probably take a couple lesser prospects (like they did with the Red Sox deal). I heard they loved Lux in the draft and we’re hoping he’d drop to their comp pick. I also know they’re looking for a young catcher, so maybe someone like Barnes or Will Smith instead. Add an intriguing arm in the backend of their rankings, and you could have something.
So it’d probably look something like:
LAD gets: Q (plus Lawrie, if they want)
CHW gets: DeLeon + Bellinger + Stewart or DeLeon + Bellinger + one of Lux/Barnes/Smith + an intriguing, lower ranked arm
That’s the kind of deal the White Sox are looking for.
Unless the Dodgers are unloading Kazmir or McCarthy, they are getting fleeced here. You just had them give up two high talent arms and their future first baseman..
I know exactly what I have them giving up, and that’s what I’m assuming the White Sox would want. They asked the Astros for two high talent arms and their best position prospect (one of their future outfielders). If they wanted to come down on their asking price, they probably would’ve already and worked something out. This deal would be very similar.
That’s not a terrible trade proposal if the Sox had any interest in Puig. His value is hard to determine at this point. But I don’t think Lawrie moves the needle much for the Dodgers. He’s just not very good.
Lawrie has NEVER played a full season and hasn’t come close to 20HR. He strikes out a third of the time. Witht he amount of Dodgers on the DL I doubt the LA FO want to take on a player with his injury history and much lower talent ceiling. The ChiSox would need to take Kazmir or McCarthy back along with some of LA’s lower tier prospects.
So how about this:
Twins get Bellinger, De Leon, Ethier (and all of his 17.5 million)
Dodgers get Brian Dozier, Eddie Rosario, Brandon Kintzler, Tyler Jay (Twins #1 prospect)
Alex Kirilloff (Twins #4 prospect)
No. That’s just unrealistic in all forms. Even if it was Ethier isn’t waving his 10-5 to go to MIN.
id have to think about doing that trade even if dozier was not involved
From all that I’ve seen on this ongoing negotiation, I think the Twins want De Leon, Alvarez & either Stewart or Lux. The Dodgers will include the first two, but not with either of the last two. They’ll part with the latter two, but only with one of the first two. If a deal gets done, I think three of those names will be involved.
Alvarez, De Leon and Stewart are all high-end arms with De Leon being a smidge further along in development. With De Leon a near sure thing to go in a trade, Neither Alvarez or Stewart will be included in the same deal. The Dodgers FO value those young arms too much. Other prospects not fro the above and not named Bellinger or Barnes will go. More likely one more prospect in the top 30 and another outside it.
Great arms, no doubt. But like all prospects, far from sure things. JDL is 24 years old and never thrown more than 114 professional innings in a season. Red flag. Suffered ‘shoulder inflammation’ in 2016. Red flag. Shelled in brief big league stint. Red flag. Stewart is 25 years old and has only pitched less than 140 innings above the Class A level. Red Flag. Shelled in his brief big league stint. Red Flag. Alvarez has less than 60 professional innings, all at the low Class A level or lower. Not necessarily a Red Flag, but far from a guarantee of success.
The closest thing to a certainty in this deal is that Dozier will give you 25-HR’s, 75-RBI & a .750 OPS,, along with solid defense at 2B, at a minimum. Each of those numbers are below his seasonal average over the past four years, and he has been trending upward every year.
Bottom line, this deal has been haggled on so long that i don’t think it gets done.
I’d consider the shoulder inflammation a red flag, but getting schooled in your first few professional starts? EVERYONE takes their lumps. And it was evident that Brock and De Leon have good “stuff.” Zach Lee on the other hand….. he looked over matched and never seemed to display the poise to settle down nor have that big strike out stuff to get out of a jam. That’s something De Leon and Brock did display in their first few starts which makes them so intriguing.
CK22 only had one quality start over his first eight, albeit he was much younger pitching in the bigs than any of these other pitchers we are discussing. I get that no young pitcher is Kershaw, but hopefully you understand the comparison I’m making with “Everyone takes their lumps.”
There is a funny acronym that periodically buzzes around the TrueBlueLA blog – TINSTAAPP or There is no such thing as a pitching prospect.
Arms, shoulders seem to blow out more readily in this present game that it may seem more fruitful to trade young arms for a sure thing… but then again, it’s very hard to pass on a lottery ticket.
Haha so many red flags holy cow. Dozier has major red flags also. Let’s not pretend. I’m getting sick of this really, the time line for DeLeon is quite clear. He threw 140 innings combined in 2013 (College and Pro Ball) so they started him late in 2014. The Dodgers are perennial playoff contenders so they’ll back off and or start guys late if they think there’s an inclination they could help. I.E. DeLeon’s 2016 season. But with a rash of MLB injuries they rushed him. He hurt his ankle, body is connected. So no shoulder inflammation is a red flag only if command and velo elude him which it really didn’t.
Stewart was primarily a college 3b. So if you want to red flag his transition to a SP go ahead.
Dozier had a career high in HRs this year but 12 were hit in the first half. Reg Flag. He plays in a pretty offensive environment. That good ole marine layer that roles in LA is going to hamper his overall offensive production especially considering he’s an extreme fly ball hitter. He’s going to strike out let’s say 130 times. It’s pretty evident that his OBP is a hit and miss so it’s not entirely consistent as some would lead to believe .312,.345,.307,.340. His OPS has also been screwed as his career year. So if he’s giving a .750 OPS (which is about his average the three years before) that’s ok but in no way elite. Especially considering he’s not to adept at hitting RHs with his .729 OPS. So that’s a pretty darn good implication that you’re praying he can reproduce his offensive output from the year before. So yes the Twins are selling high at his extreme highest point. Who is he is he? Is he the 2013-2015 version or is he the 2016 version? If I’m a betting man, I’m betting he’s the former. All in all that makes him a solid player, but an elite package I’m not seeing it and im betting that’s why there’s so much haggling occurring. But hey if the Twins want to keep him that’s ok. 2017 will be a pretty clear indication of who is (obviously aside from potential injuries). Personally in knowing how this team operates and guys are used Forsythe seems to be the better option and more flexible option.
That’s a great analysis.
I’d still rather have Dozier though, but not for any of the elite prospects besides De Leon. If the Twinkies want Bellinger, I’d say, “Great talking to you, but call back when you sober up.” I also want to see Toles lead off when he plays. I wish the LAD had a more typical and regular leadoff hitter. I know Forsythe could fill that role but I am not enamored with him as much as Dozier.
Don’t get me wrong I like Dozier. I like both. And in no way am I saying Forsythe is better. But in terms of being trade able, I think the twins are hesitant to trade Dozier which you can’t blame them. I think they are more likely to trade Santana. I also think that Forsythe fits the Dodgers model. He’s a guy they can bounce around the inf here and there. Who knows they might not be available until the trade deadline which is entirely possible and at that point I think we’ll have a clearer picture of who both of them are. In terms of the Dodgers, I can see both hitting in the 2 hole against LH and then bumped to the 5th or 6th spot against righties. I’d rather see the Dodgers try and find a capable (S) who can play all three OF positions while shedding the glut of OF (i.e. Ethier and Puig) and looking at the 2b market at the deadline. I’m just looking at the rotation and wondering if the fragility of the rotation will end up hurting them if they were to make this trade right now. But we all cringe at the thought of a Kikè
Hmm, I like the dialogue we have here.
I too wonder about that rotation, After CK;s turn, who can be counted on to go more than 5 or 6 innings? That bullpen is gong to be taxed and possibly look different between the first and last 50 games of the season. Can RIch Hill get to the 7th? Cna Maeda plow through a line-up more than 2 times? Yeezus man.
You mentioned the FO liking people than can play all over the diamond. You know who I wish they would take a flier on? Hak-ju Lee. He’s a former Rays high end prospect who’s development and chances got curtailed when he got a knee injury while playing. A shortstop by trade, he can hit and play defense but I don’t think has received a good look since his surgery. He has a Rays resume and familiarity seems to be a plus to this FO. WHy not just sign him to a cheap contract, play him all ove the infield while in the minors and stash if Kike can’t seem to regain prior form?
I’d just like to see him get another shot.
Culberson and Taylor have shown more than Lee. Lee could be just a guy we is brought in with sole intention of filling AAA roster but I wouldn’t expect anything to materialize beyond that. The dodgers are also looking for some semblance of power at 2b.