In his latest column, ESPN’s Buster Olney argues that the Orioles need to begin preparing for the possibility of trading superstar third baseman Manny Machado (Insider subscription required and highly recommended). Olney is careful to report that sources in the organization tell him no such talks have taken place, but he also lays out a compelling argument for dealing Machado this coming summer if the O’s aren’t in contention. Machado’s $11.2MM arbitration projection will take his career earnings north of $20MM, so he can afford to wait for free agency two years from now, financially speaking. And the Orioles have what is generally regarded as one of the game’s weaker farm systems, so moving Machado and other top-tier MLB assets (i.e. Zach Britton, Adam Jones) could net GM Dan Duquette the type of prospect bounty that would make for an accelerated rebuilding process.
O’s fans undoubtedly would prefer to see Machado extended, but I agree with Olney’s assessment that the window for that has likely closed. At this juncture, it’s hard to envision Machado signing anything less than a record-setting contract. He’s a better all-around player than Giancarlo Stanton, whose 13-year, $325MM contract is the current benchmark. Hitting the open market at age 26, Machado should shatter Stanton’s record contract barring some form of devastating injury. Of course, if Baltimore is in contention in 2017, then it’s all a moot point for a bit longer, as there’s no way the Orioles would (nor should they) consider dealing Machado and others if a potential postseason berth is in the cards.
A few more notes on the Orioles…
- Agent Scott Boras reached out to Orioles owner Peter Angelos one last time to try to get the O’s back into the Matt Wieters bidding before Baltimore signed Welington Castillo, reports MASNsports.com’s Roch Kubatko. The Orioles were simply far more comfortable committing a modest $6MM salary in 2017 (and possibly $7MM in 2018) to Castillo than they were with considering the price levels that Boras is seeking for Wieters. Kubatko notes that Wieters’ situation may not be resolved before the calendar flips to 2017.
- Within that same piece, Kubatko reports that Colby Rasmus’ agents have reached out to the Orioles, but the team considers his current asking price to be too high. If the O’s do end up with Rasmus, a deal would have to be reached closer to Spring Training once his asking price drops a bit further. Rasmus struggled to a .206/.286/.355 batting line last year but played through myriad physical issues over the course of the season. Rasmus had a cyst surgically removed from his ear this past summer — an issue that very likely could’ve impacted his balance and all-around skill set — and underwent surgeries to repair his hip and a sports hernia following the 2016 season. A healthier Rasmus could be a nice rebound candidate, though the O’s likely aren’t alone in expressing some trepidation about committing a significant guarantee to a player coming off Rasmus’ recent injuries.
- Eduardo A. Encina of the Baltimore Sun writes that the O’s are still looking for a defensive upgrade in the corner outfield and depth in the bullpen, but he casts some doubt on the team’s ability to squeeze in another acquisition prior to the holidays. The team’s talks with Mark Trumbo have been lagging a bit, and while the O’s haven’t pivoted to similar players like Jose Bautista, Edwin Encarnacion and Chris Carter yet, Encina adds that they’ll eventually go that route if talks with Trumbo’s camp don’t intensify.
It should be noted that the last 8 years of Stanton’s contract was more than likely just a publicity stunt by the Marlins. He will opt out after 2020.
He’d have to be confident that he could top seven years and $218MM on the open market heading into his age-31 season in order to opt out… I would say that’s far from a given.
Agreed. He’s not opting out. The contract was backloaded too.
I doubt he’s opting out. Loria signed him because he needed to show he was spending, He backloaded because he was looking for an exit ramp and had no problem with Stanton getting paid later on, since Loria didn’t expect to be paying it. And, if Stanton was absurdly great and did opt out, Loria would have gotten a bargain.
Well if Loria sells the Marlins, its not his problem anymore
Yes. A few days ago, MLBTR reported Loria was looking for high offers. mlbtraderumors.com/2016/12/jeffrey-loria-open-to-c…
Once Loria has squeezed all the juice out of this orange–MLB and taxpayer–he will be more than happy to get out.
please correct me if I’m wrong but in baseball contracts are guaranteed. If Stanton suffers a career ending injury next year he still gets paid.
If it’s a career ending injury then he would be forced to retire. That would technically void out the contract. Similar to Prince Fielder’s situation.
Fielder is still getting paid. He counts $18M towards the Rangers 2017 payroll. The Tigers are also on the hook for part of his salary as well. However, insurance is paying a good chunk of his salary (I think I read it was $11M, but don’t hold me to that number). So any player that gets injured, the contract is still valid.
Albert Belle didn’t technically “retire” until his contract was done. He was just put on the 60-day DL every season. Fielder likewise won’t “retire,” in the sense of filing official retirement paperwork, until his contract is over as well. There are a few cases of guys who walked away from their guaranteed contracts – Gil Meche and Adam LaRoche come to mind – but they’re few and far between.
Or insurance would cover a lot of the contract.
He still gets his money. It’s just that the team isn’t fully responsible for it. Insurance pays a hefty chunk
It might have been a publicity stunt but it might end up killing the Marlins especially if this market trend continues. His inability to play a full season is hard to stomach and one dimensional sluggers are starting to go by the waist side. It hard to see someone paying him until he is 37 or beating that contract. So market wise it will probably make sense to just opt in especially considering there’s no state tax in FL.
he isn’t a one dimensional dimensional slugger, above average defender in right, and solid average baserunner. he won’t opt out but saying he is just a slugger is crazy.
Will that stay true entering his age 31 season as digression and injuries catch up to him?
biggest tool is the arm defensively so decent chance,
The Marlins hoped he would opt-out, because if he’s not good enough to opt-out and get a massive contract that contract could anchor the franchise for years to come. Some franchises can work around a player being paid $30MM+ not being worth it, but there are very few and the Marlins definitely aren’t one.
Lori’s will be long gone when Stanton’s option year comes around. The guy was gifted the franchise by his buddy Seelig and has done much to destroy the Marlins as a legitimate franchise with his bi-polar approach to signing free agents and then trading them. Good riddance…he can’t leave too quickly…hope the door doesn’t slam too hard on his back as he runs from his ruins.
So true. What’s crazy is that he is going to be making more than the entire Padres team does as of now. The Padres roster has $26M on their payroll. That’s bonkers when you think about it.
Not if he plays horribly in the first part of this contract. So far, he’s sucked. Period
It was far from a publicity stunt. In fact it was a shrewd move by the Marlins actually. If you give an opt out you back load the deal like he Marlins did. You do not front load it like the other moron teams do like Mets did last year with Cespedes.
I doubt he opts out.
Machado to the Yanks calling it.
December 19th, 2016.
Yankees2425 called Machado to the Yankees first. Mark it down.
Except about 200 other commenters have already called it over the past two years. Part of the “High-Priced Player X to the Yankees” Default Predictions Contest.
Wow Yankees 2425 is calling that the richest team in baseball will be the one who can afford to sign Machado to a potential record breaking deal. Wow. Who would have thought! He must really have the inside scoop. No one else would thank that. Lol
Wait are you trying to say you think Baltimore is going to trade machado to the yankees?! If so you have about a 0% chance of being correct. Also if machado is traded at some point before free agency it will be to another team out of the division, and they will be doing so with the intentions of having first dibs to negotiate a massive extension I’d assume. I would venture to guess that machado is traded to a west cost team next offseason. Either dodgers, Texas, or Seattle. The team will then sign him to a contract worth between 350 and 400 million.
However if the orioles do not trade him at any point before free agency then yes they will see him go to their division rival for a massive price.
Through free agency not trade wise. Don’t believe Cash wants to give up his young talent.
No offense but I’m not sure how talented they really are to begin with. Unless they shoot up the ranks next year, Baltimore would have to at least require a top 5 mlb prospect to begin with so I don’t think it applys anyway, I’m just saying if he does get traded before free agency, the team that acquires him will sign him, kind of like the arod Yankee deal.
call me stupid but i think the yankees should sign wieters to DH and play backup when sanchez needs a dh day or Off day and Trade Gardner and prospects for Gio Gonzalez . Move Holliday to LF with hicks as the backup.
Werth-Eaton-Harper…Nats don’t need Gardner
werth is nothing but a bench player especially if the nats are in win mode now
You’re stupid!
Giancarlo was an overpay, though. Probably not fair to use that as a benchmark (though I realize it will be used as such anyway).
That’s like using the Shelby Miller trade as a benchmark for pitching trades.
Wieters isn’t a premium player anymore. If Boras is trying to shoot the lights out, it’s going to be a long slog. He was mediocre in 2013, injured in 2014 and 15, and mediocre in 2016. Where’s the platform for a huge contract?
Trade Machado this summer? Nonsense. As for Stanton’s contract, it seems extremely unlikely Stanton opts out. The guy can’t stay healthy and he won’t find $218 million at age 31 with a habit of playing 100-125 games a year.
Every single season since 2012 I have been hearing that Orioles have a weak farm system and need to bolster it by trading some of their desirable major league players. Orioles have not done that and they have contended. How? That’s a mystery to me but I am not sure that fan base will be a fan of rebuilding after suffering 14 losing seasons. Besides they just committed big dollars to Chris Davis. What’s the point of that if they decide to sell on rest of the players? I think you are also not considering how much Jones means to that city and fan base. If he was traded, I wouldn’t put it past them boycotting the team.
I am not an Orioles fan so to me, rebuilding seems like the best course of action that guarantees long term success. However they have managed to find success lately with whatever they have put on the field so they don’t necessarily have to take that route.
Showalter is a master at getting the best out of his players. His aggressive managing style wears out after a few years, but he is not given enough credit for what he does. Baltimore has also done a good job with trades and free agents over the years. I’m not an Orioles fan, but you have to give them credit for the way they compete most years.
As a Nationals fan, I wish Britton could be traded to them but I don’t think we can afford after latest trades.
Trade Manny Machado for Giancarlo Stanton
It would solve everything!
That’s a complete lose/lose trade for both sides.
No way Orioles do that deal.
That doesn’t even make any sense at all. Giancarlo is both inferior and more expensive. Unless Marlins are adding prospects in that deal
Machado gonna sign with the Phillies. No ones going to be able to out spend them in the next few years.
I would seriously be surprised if in couple years we don’t see a Yankee line up with Frazier, Judge, Bird , Sanchez, Machado, and Harper in it in a couple of years
So the Yankees are going to commit something like 700 million for 2 players with the new harsher restrictions against being over the luxury tax? So 60-70 million aav minimum for 2 players who probably want 10+ year contracts? One I’d definitely agree with can’t see both.
you will be surprised then. judge just isn’t good, frazier has a lot of bust in him as well and Bird gets overrated by yanks fans.
Dodgers will be able to.
So Adam Jones and his 1.4 fWAR is a “top tier MLB asset”? Man, Buster Olney really is an idiot.
Top tier for the O’s….
Everyone is assuming salaries are going to continue to go up and up by 10 per cent every year. This is not going to happen. Baseball is not basketball where two all stars can guarantee a play off spot and three all stars give you a great chance to win. it all. Baseball executives are slowly becoming more reasonable. I expect this trend to continue.
I think Machado is a top five bat and a possible SS as well but he is not Mike Trout.
Yankees do not look like crazy spenders any more and the Red Sox are showing signs of sanity. That leaves the Dodgers who may be in receivership by then and my Tigers who may have a new owner by then.
Receivership? Really? That’s a huge jump and not realistic. By the time Machado is a free agent they will have shed close to 110M dollars without considering Kershaw is going to opt out. So that’s a mighty assumption. But no I don’t think the Dodgers will jump into the Machado market. 2018 is going to be an interesting market that is if everything actually gets to the market. I also don’t think Machado needs to be Trout especially if he can play SS.
There’s not much ownership could do when the debt was incurred, because MLB gave the keys to a former owner with insufficient income flow. It also shows a stark example of what happens when an owner uses the team as a personal bank account. I think if we understand that the rev to debt calculator was skewed and self inflicted by one time expenditures it’s easy to see why people jumped to conclusions. Especially if they didn’t do the research. The Dodgers exploited the IFA market like many teams knowing that there were likely changes coming with the new CBA. It’s also important to note that the Dodgers pack the stadium and a percentage of their tv contract each year pays into the debt. Considering the Dodgers save a healthy amount in the future with the abolishment of performance factors in revenue sharing it’d be naive to think they are sinking in tremendous debt. Its hard to see a team with a 8 billion dollar contract averaging 4 million fans playoff revenue not being able to pay of an incurred 400M in debt. So no don’t let such false rumors spread.
MLB engineered the LA sale in the first place–there’s no way that a team with that history and those revenue streams is going into receivership.
Last year we saw the largest contracts ever given out for a starting pitcher and this year we’ve seen 3 separate relievers break the previous record for a reliever contract. Executives are becoming smarter about signing one tool and aging players, sure, but they are still giving out long term high aav to the really good players. Machado will be both really good and also young (for a fa).
If the O’s sign that snot nose punk Jose Bautista im boycotting
If the Orioles sign that snot nose punk Jose Bautista I’m boycotting
Calm down, they already said they’re not signing him because Baltimore fans dislike him.
I think it’s a pretty safe bet that Manny is just as “untouchable” as Dansby Swanson or Amed Rosario. He’s far too valuable to part with for prospects who may or may not pan out. I think the O’s will pay him one more year of arbitration before aggressively pursuing a contract extension to keep him in an O’s uni.
If the O’s went out of their way to bring a guy like Chris Davis back; I believe it’s a sure bet that they’ll do the same for Manny, if not more. If they make a move to stock their farm system; I think it’ll be with a guy like Britton or Jones. Most likely the former, as there is a bigger market for a closer than a CF.
Only difference is it costs half of what it cost to sign Davis as it would machado. I always looked @ the Davis signing more like Holliday in St Louis they signed him for fear that they wouldn’t be able to sign pujols.
I looked at it like they needed his bat in the lineup to compete, and with a shortage of power bats on the market, Chris was their best option to keep cleanup power in the middle of their lineup. I have zero doubts that they would be willing to move other guys to make cap room to re-sign him.
Can their cap afford 50-60 million on those 2 players though? Especially long term? (Not to mention if they sign a trumbo or ee) Would it be more frugal and better use of resources to sign multiple players as st Louis did? having one great player can only get you so far ask the angels
Especially because they have ~0 proven healthy sp. They will probably need to get Tilman, Bundy, and Gausman locked up cheap and producing well to really compete going forward.
this is not a good argument. no player is far too valuable to trade unless trout was on a 10 year deal at 1 mil per year. sure prospects aren’t 100% but when you hit the surplus value is abundant. picture trading machado for prospect kris bryant… that would be a win for the o’s, considering Bryant has been as good If not better his first 2 seasons for a total of 1.1 mil. now keep in mind a deal like that is never one for one so the other “prospects” could provide even more value.
Machado is arguably the best all around 3B in the league who is also flexible and plays SS like it’s his natural position. Plus his bat has REALLY come around the last two seasons hitting for good avg. AND blasting over 30 bombs with 80-90+ this. PLUS he ONLY reaching his age 25 season, so still a top tier “prospect” in his own right.
That is a perfectly valid argument. Manny Machado is a franchise player you build a ball club around. I don’t see the O’s even entertaining the idea of moving him.
machado is not arguably the best, both Donaldson and Bryant are better. anyways my point was no player is too valuable to trade, it’s only 2/30 of machado that would be traded. projecting 14 war at 8.5 mil per war leaves about 90 mil in surplus value, add an additional 10 mil for the qualifying offer he will receive and you get 100 mil in surplus value. Chris sale projected for 130 mil in surplus value to give you an idea.
Who could have known that back in 2009, Wieters (aka “Joe Mauer with power”) would be unemployed and not wanted by his drafted franchise.
I think Machado will only get slightly more than Stanton for 3 reasons, 1 their will probably be very few teams that can afford such a contract and 2 Donaldson barring extension is going to be on the market as well. and 3 Machado has the same injury red flags Stanton has maybe worse since so much of his game is based on atlhetic ability he has had major knee surgeries on both knees, all though his last 2 seasons have downplayed that, a minor sprain could be a major concern though. Machado looks nice from the typical slash line but his career OPS+ is only 117 he benefits greatly from the AL East., compared to Stanton OPS+ of 142 Machado defense is obviously a huge difference but I don’t see that being in the 50-60 Million like people expect.
Forgot to mention Bryce Harper among others high rollers are going to have to decide between one or the other I don’t see a real bidding war coming into play for any one, and if it did occur it would probably be for Harper not Machado. Based on the expected free agency class and his knee’s Machado might be best off working an extension out with the Orioles.
Adieu Adieu Machado! Big payday is a coming….. just not with the O’s.
Angelos already broke the bank with Chris Davis…. and that won’t happen again.
I gotta think that the staggering luxury taxes of the new CBA should prevent the insane mega contracts like Stanton’s or the expected deals for Machado and Harper. Does Wieters even have a market? I see him ultimately falling to a small market team on a 1 or 2 year below market salary.
Wonder if Rasmus got his dad’s permission to seek a contract…..
LMFAO you guys who think the o’s would trade machado or let him walk are absolute CLOWNS. Stop being jealous that the best infielder in baseball plays for baltimore. Your team doesn’t have a player that could hold manny’s jock strap. He will resign with orioles, MARK IT DOWN NOW. The media never gives Baltimore any love, there was no talk of trout or Stanton not resigning. When the o’s put 350 million in front of machado over 11 years he isn’t going to turn it down…