SUNDAY: On whether he’ll immigrate to the majors in the offseason, Otani told 60 Minutes that “nothing is for certain,” but it doesn’t seem as if the international spending limits in the CBA will deter him. “Personally, I don’t care how much I get paid or how much less I get paid because of this,” Otani stated in regards to the changes in the system. The Fighters, meanwhile, do plan to post Otani, and their manager, Hideki Kuriyama, is fine with that. “For our team, we’re all for him going to the States,” said Kuriyama. “Yeah, as a manager, it’s going to hurt. It’s tough that way. But more than that, I want him to succeed.”
FRIDAY: Japanese superstar Shohei Otani is already familiar to readers of MLBTR; he is generally regarded as the best pitcher in the world who isn’t working in the majors. He’s also a highly productive slugger in Japan’s Nippon Professional Baseball league. And he’s just 22 years old. (For comparison’s sake, both Yu Darvish and Masahiro Tanaka came to the majors in advance of their age-25 seasons.)
It has long been wondered just when he’ll make it over to the majors, but rule changes have conspired to gum up that possible transition. First came the application of a $20MM cap on posting fees, which reduces the incentive for NPB clubs to make players available before their control rights are set to expire. Then, the latest iteration of the CBA put hard caps on teams’ capacity to spend on international players who are under 25 years of age, thus precluding the possibility of Otani commanding a bonus befitting his ability until the 2019 season.
Despite those barriers, there are indications now that Otani could nevertheless attempt a move to the majors as soon as next season. As Jon Wertheim of Sports Illustrated writes, executives with Otani’s current team, the Nippon Ham Fighters, are preparing to lose their all-everything performer after this season. Importantly, per the report, Otani also intends to request potential MLB suitors commit to allowing him both to pitch and to hit.
Notably, also, “multiple sources” suggest to Wertheim that Otani’s still-undetermined representatives may be able to find ways to sweeten any arrangement. Though he’d nominally be forced to slog through MLB’s typical control process, perhaps he would be able to negotiate some sort of provision that enables him to reach the open market before he reaches six years of service. Other international players have been able to negotiate such provisions; Nori Aoki and Yoenis Cespedes come to mind as examples, though neither of those players was subject to the same rules regime as Otani will be.
While the up-front guarantee would be a pittance of what he’d earn on the open market, or even as a typical posted player, that may not prove as much of a barrier as had been thought. In an interview with 60 Minutes that is set to air on Sunday, Otani reputedly states that he hopes to move to the big leagues after the current season, as Bob Nightengale of USA Today tweets.
Wertheim’s piece, which is well worth a full read, details Otani’s background. As he notes, the phenom considered bypassing the NPB altogether to join a big league team. The Fighters landed him, in part, by promising to make him a two-way player. Part of that bargain, the piece suggests, was that the club would not protest when Otani decided it was time to cross the Pacific.
To say the deal worked well for Otani’s current team would be an understatement. Last year, he slashed a ridiculous .322/.416/.588 and swatted 22 home runs in 382 plate appearances while also posting a 1.86 ERA with 11.2 K/9 and 2.9 BB/9 over 140 frames. And by the picture painted by Wertheim, Otani is a model teammate with a modest personality and full dedication to his craft(s).
Just how Otani’s otherworldly Japanese statistics will translate to the majors is open to some debate. He would surely be viewed as a notable potential big leaguer for his bat, but is most prized for his arm. As Wertheim notes, an American League organization would seem to offer the most ready route to fulfilling Otani’s intentions, since he could stride to the plate without being forced to play the field on days he’s not pitching. Whether he’s intent on spending time in the outfield, too, isn’t clear.
Plenty of time will pass before anything is formalized, and much could change in the meantime. Should Otani become available, however, it would likely make for an unprecedented effort by major league organizations to woo him. That’s due not only to his unusual dual capabilities (and wishes), but also his young age and the unique circumstances of the rules limiting what he can be paid. Literally every team in the game would have cause to pursue him vigorously, particularly if the financial commitment is as meager as it seemingly must be.
Damn, so that eliminates all the AL teams.
Or will he hit as a DH? I hope that actually happens.
“As Wertheim notes, an American League organization would seem to offer the most ready route to fulfilling Otani’s intentions, since he could stride to the plate without being forced to play the field on days he’s not pitching.”
Damn, so that eliminates all the NL teams.
How about the Ham Fighters just swap leagues with the A’s.
Why exactly do they fight ham?
Because they’re closet Muslims?
It could be a question of semantics…or semites!
Nippon Ham are the company that own/bankroll the team. Not sure why you’d want your team to be fighting you though! My mate plays for the Bolton Robots of Doom – best name ever!
Definitely doesn’t eliminate the AL teams. If anything, it’d do the opposite. No team will want* to have him pitch and play the field. I’m assuming nearly everybody would prefer to have him DH, if he really needs to hit.
*I say want because I’m sure there will be plenty of NL teams willing to let him play the field too just for the chance to sign him, even though they most likely don’t “want” him to.
I doubt any MLB team would allow him to pitch every fifth day, and also play a position, or even DH, daily. As good as he may be in Japan as a double threat, he’d almost certainly be required to concentrate on one skill to face MLB opposition and the shorter rotation. So I would not rule out the NL where he could get 100 PAs in a season between games started, PH and DH opportunities. Would any AL team expose him to much more than that? Seems unlikely.
Would it really be THAT surprising to you? Like I said, I don’t see any team “wanting” to let him do both, but if he’s dead set on it, I’d be willing to bet at least one team will give him a chance just for the opportunity to add him to their pitching staff – especially when you factor in the new international signing rules where nobody can blow everyone else out of the water with a contract offer. Teams will be looking for any way they can to get an advantage, and the opportunity to hit more than once every 5 games could definitely be one in this case.
Anything could happen, but if he limits his options to clubs that will guarantee using him for both pitching and batting daily he cuts out 15 teams right off the top and many others that would be uninterested in the arrangement. No team likes to be handcuffed by a player who demands special treatment, and that would be the most special treatment any player has seen in memory, and basically as a rookie.
I know there is zero chance he’s signing with the Pirates. As long as he doesn’t sign with the Cubs or Cards, that will be good enough.
Cmon cardinals!
Imagine if he signed with the cubs if they lose Arrieta?
Just what the Cubs need – another slugger who doesn’t have a fielding position and makes everyone nervous due to the risk of injury.
Schwarber with another bomb today. He thanks you for your support .
I suppose he may be betting on endorsements on the Japanese side being big enough to offset the low salary, larger playing for the MLB where the entire nation roots for him than in Japan where loyalty is divided. Playing in a large market for Japanese goods and services will help.
He could also consider setting up a charitable foundation and let teams know a large donation would influence his decision. Only has to pay 4% out each year for charity and investment income is tax free. Not sure how MLB could oppose that. He only cashes the check of the highest bid of course.
So you’re suggesting he do something that is illegal but also ethically/morally beyond the pale – setting up a “charity” – to benefit himself and then shaking down MLB teams for what is, basically, a bribe? Yeah, I doubt MLB would let that happen. Charities get shut down and their administrators go to jail in this country for setting up the exact scheme you describe here.
As far as Otani goes, a lot of scouts find the bat to be overrated – he’s really only had the one good year offensively – so I would assume he comes over as a pitcher first and some team grudgingly lets him DH or pinch-hit enough until he proves he’s not a great hitter.
Scouts are not the be all and end all. of talent.
He will play for either the Yanks, Red Sox or Mariners.
I can definitely see that happening and my being a Sox fan has nothing to do with it. Where he goes could have a lot to do with Tanaka and next year. I can picture him being a.countryman mentor. Assuming he remains in NY, I’d place the Yankees as his most likely landing spot.
AL.. That would be considered early favorites for payroll/familiarity of Japanese players on Mariners end. Never know however, could shock and Some weird team.. Say orioles make a push that shortly stands to lose major impact players.
Yeah so he’s going to sign with either the Mets, Nationals, Cubs, Cardinals, Dodgers or Giants. Sounds really fair. Nothing like top teams receiving top international talent year in and out. Such a fair system. Just drive the low level teams further into the ground while high level teams just pile on the talent.
Why do you say that? The regs control the financial investment considerably, so he’s within reach for tons of teams. And a weaker team might be more willing to offer him the chance to hit everyday. The Yanks have too many DHs on their roster already, for example. A smaller market team might be willing to pay him, especially if he gave them roster flexibility. They get more bang for their buck, so it’s an easy argument to make to ownership.
Please name all these Yankee DHs that will be around next year.
What are you talking about? The new CBA means that the amount of money teams can spend on Otani is capped; it’s the same for every team. If the Twins are more appealing to Otani than the Yankees are, he’ll go to the Twins because the money will be the EXACT SAME. This is no longer the old posting system.
i like the sound of that come on twins lets add Otani and hunter green to the farm system this year lol
Actually, there are three tiers of spending for international free agents. The larger market/revenue clubs (like the Yankees) get $4.75mil next year; the mid-market (Twins) get $5.25mil; and the small market get $5.75. Each team can also trade for additional space not to exceed 75% of their original allotment.
So, in reality for the 2017-2018 timeframe, the Twins could outspend the Yankees $9.1875mil to $8.3125mil on Otani.
Or Giants… or Cubs…
I wouldn’t sleep on the phillies for this, they have plenty of money to spend with a young team in need of an ace.
I’m a huge Phillies fan and would LOVE for this to happen but I don’t think they will. I don’t see them wanting him to pitch and hit which is going to hurt him
Otani might sign with an AL team and DH and pitch. The Yanks will have over 100 million to spend next year and Otani would be a perfect fit. All the other big market teams like the Dodgers and Cubs will go after him too!
If he is a position player and pitcher how will he be listed for Fantasy Baseball?
Maybe list him as two players: the pitcher and the hitter. Owners can draft both or either or either.
Any MadBum owner should be screaming from the rooftops for them to change SP rules in fantasy baseballs, allowing offensive scoring from pitchers.
Nah, because then you’d have to deal with the strikeouts, terrible OBP and low batting averages too. Obviously, in Fantasy Baseball, you don’t just get the good stuff.
Bumgarner is a good hitter – for a pitcher. His career line as a batter: in 524 plate appearances, or roughly one full season’s worth: 187/236/327, with 43 runs scored, 85 hits, 16 doubles and 16 homers, 51 RBI, 29 BB and 184 strikeouts. That’s not really a ahitter you’d want on your fantasy team.
According to this article, he will sign after this mlb season. At that point the new CBA will be in effect, putting a hard cap on international spending, effectively making it even across the board. Otani also says that money has very little to do with his decision (willing to leave millions on table by coming over to US early).
So basically every team (not already under signing penalties) should have an equal opportunity to sign him. This excludes the Giants and Cubs among others… Otani will be able to sign wherever he wants to (most likely a competitive top 10 team).
“Teams that exceeded their bonus pools to incur a penalty will still be unable to sign any player for more than $300,000 during the 2017-18 signing period. The Cubs, Dodgers, Giants and Royals will be in their second year of the penalty, while the A’s, Astros, Braves, Cardinals, Nationals, Padres and Reds wi’ll be in their first year of penalty.”
Heres a link to all international signing pools for 2018. Its between 4.75M – 5.75M for EVERY TEAM.
http://www.baseballamerica.com/international/2017-18-international-bonus-pools/#58bIsZSIGwOgKzPR.97
So market size has absolutely nothing to do with it. It will be strictly a matter of which team lets him do what he wants and where he likes it best.
Precisely. The new CBA is great for the game.
Unless players would want to chase money and just take a lot more in Japan/Korea.
No it isn’t. Lots of players won’t even bother coming here now.
Of the teams you named, only the Mets won’t be under signing penalties.
But they’ve got Tebow, so they’ve got all the slugging prospects they could ever want.
I hate you.
– Mets fan
I had to laugh when I saw MLB.com had an entire article about Tebow hitting his second career HR.
He will be a Dodger, Yankee or Red Sox. One of them will overpay for the guy who will change the game. Then he won’t change it at all.
No, none of those teams can “overpay” – all three of them are bound by the same caps on IFA signings, and Boston is limited because of penalties incurred by signing Castillo, Moncada, etc. This will not be a bidding war for money at all, but rather the team that he finds to be the best fit for him.
You forget, all contracts are “overpays” and they come in three flavors: huge, massive, and unbelievable.
Heard it right here!
Ottani to Yankees as a top rotation starter which they desperately need and a part time DH which they will have availability after this year unless they bring back Holliday to platoon at DH which I’m not sure he would want to do but at 38 it makes sense.
Ottani bats left handed which Yanks need left handed bats. Also gives them option to go to six man rotation as Ottani is an extra bat off bench which shortens bench with the need for a fourth outfielder not a necessity.
I don’t think there’s any way Otani plays in the field, no matter where he signs. His value is as a pitcher, period. If he chips in with a bat that’s the bonus, but that’s not what he’s there for.
“Period” you say….When he will sign on the proviso that he can hit and pitch. “Period” indeed.
He can replace Darvish on the Rangers as their newest ex-ham fighter
Rangers have a good reputation in Japan
Random prediction: Ohtani to the Mariners. Mariners kinda became Japan’s team for awhile with Ichiro and Nintendo owning them.
Even more random prediction: Ohtani to the Angels. Maybe he wants to play with Trout.
It is going to be an interesting offseason. So many top notch free agents. It will be interesting to watch just how much money teams have to throw around. Several FA’s could get $30M/year, a handful more $25M/year. Then you have some great players such as Lucroy who could get close to $20M. I’m curious to see how many teams have budgets to try and get multiple players at this range.
If he’s any good, count the Cardinals out!!! Their GM only goes after low hanging fruit. However, when the chips are down, he’ll sign a Brett Cecil. Plus, give him more money and more years than he could have had Andrew Miller for instead! The Cards are my lifelong favorite team!!!! But….they have been hard to watch in 2016 and worse at the beginning of 2017. I know part of the poor play centers around their managers bone headed decisions, but even the absolute best on the current team seem to not want to put the extra effort on the field that it takes to make the play-offs. Bring back Jockerty, LaRussa, Duncan and McGwire.
Cubs anyone?
They blew past their IFA bonus so they’ll be in the penalty box.
Really dont understand why people are thinking he has to be signing with an AL team to DH when NL pitchers are required to hit thus adding absolutely zero risk in having him DH but also giving him an opportunity to be a batter. Im gonna say the Pirates finally pull off a big deal given that this is theyre one chance at being on even footing with the rest of the league for a top international talent.
So he can concentrate only on pitching on days he’s pitching.
He would be pitcher not a fielder.
@Mikal Grady plus Schwarber does just fine in left. He’s not going anywhere anytime soon. If anything a huge payday is coming his way with the cubs along with Bryant. Russell Contreras and baez. All will be extended within 3-4 years. All with the cubs.
the A’s, Astros, Braves, Cardinals, Nationals, Padres and Reds wi’ll be in their first year of penalty.”
Taken from above. That eliminates them. So its a 23team race. And what is it 7? teams who will have 5.75mil to offer to him. Due to competitive balance. Ill have to look at which teams those are.
Reading the comments above, why is it so hard to believe teams wouldnt play him both in the field and pitching? They call him Babe Ruth, who did both for a period of time.
And Im sorry if you believe those 7 teams would have any shot, 300k is not going to get it done.
He could join the rangers and have darvish and ohtani in the same rotation!
Fangraphs had an interesting article last week looking at what is stopping an MLB team from signing him at or under the international spending limit, and then just signing him to a big money, long term extension after a year (or even just a few solid MLB starts).
I don’t see why he wouldn’t be a good fit for an NL team. He could be a premiere pinch hitter. Also, it would be interesting to see if he batted in the middle of the order.
On an AL team, could he pitch and bat, thus removing a weak position player from the lineup? I’m not sure if the rules mandate that a DH must replace a pitcher.
I see him signing with a big market team where he can get big endorsements. I’ll be surprised if he doesn’t land with the Yankees.
My dark horse picks: Phillies or Braves. With the way those teams are trending, he immediately makes them contenders.
DH can only replace the pitcher.
The reason why he would be not as great fit for the NL, is that he isn’t any good in the field (even hiding in a corner outfield spot) and would be a risk of hurting himself out there.
I agree that he could make quite a bit from a larger market team, but he could probably have quite a few opportunities for the traditionally smaller west coast teams, as well.
Even if Otani was an immediate ace and could bat cleanup while playing LF another 2-3 games a week, (VERY big ifs) I very much doubt he makes either the Braves or Phillies immediate contenders. They have too many missing pieces still.
Phillies and braves will be in the penalty box. So many teams blew passed their tax knowing their might be significant changes to the CBA.
Japanese version of Mad Bum? #pitcherswhorake
Actually every other year the competitive balance groups switch on who get more every year. If you have a first round competitive balance draft pick then 5.25 mil. in ur international pool and if you have a second round competitive balance pick you hsve 5.75 mil. And that switches every other year. So its not mid market and small market
So like those others Asian pitcher that have come over… saying they were some of the best. I haven’t seen anything that says they are. Some have been good, but the best? Idk about that
No way Giants go after him. That would make too much sense. Giants are too busy pouring money into the likes of old man river Denard Span.
Personally, I don’t think it’s very fair that some teams are prevented form offering him more than $300,000 for going over their international FA limit
if all the hype proves to be real, they’ll be sorry.
This is probably all moot though, because he will be given an opt out., I’m sure of it. He will be given an opt out after the first 3 years when he turns 25. This guy is going to be set up for life, regardless.
You can do that right? Or would he need to have six years of major league service time because of the arb process