By Darragh McDonald | at
The Blue Jays are set to sign two-way superstar Shohei Ohtani, per a report from J.P. Hoornstra of Dodgers Nation. Nothing is official but Hoornstra reports a formal announcement is expected as soon as tonight. The financial details of the agreement are not known.
More to come.
By Steve Adams | at
Shohei Ohtani’s cloak-and-dagger free agent saga has held up the top end of the free-agent and trade markets alike through the offseason’s first several weeks, but a decision from the two-time AL MVP is “imminent” and could be announced at some point today, per MLB.com’s Jon Morosi. In a segment on MLB Network (video link), Morosi adds that the Blue Jays have improved their standing in the Ohtani derby this week and are a finalist alongside the Dodgers, at the very least.
At last check, the Jays, Dodgers, Giants, Angels and Cubs were all involved in the bidding. The possibility of a dark-horse suitor that’s flown under the radar to this point can’t be ruled out, given the secretive nature of Ohtani’s free agency. Anecdotally, it’s of note that Friday marks six years, to the day, since Ohtani made his last free-agent decision, when he signed with the Angels.
Ohtani and the Blue Jays are believed to have met at the team’s spring training complex in Florida this week. Dodgers skipper Dave Roberts acknowledged during the Winter Meetings that his club had met with Ohtani and considered him their “top priority,” prompting some hand-wringing among Dodger fans that even such a basic acknowledgment of the obvious might work to their detriment. The Giants are reported to have met with Ohtani last weekend at Oracle Park. The incumbent Angels, of course, are already a known and familiar commodity for Ohtani. The Cubs’ status in the bidding remains least certain, though president of baseball operations Jed Hoyer publicly denied reports this week suggesting that his team’s optimism regarding Ohtani had waned.
Bidding on Ohtani was widely expected to eclipse $500MM, even after the slugger/ace underwent elbow surgery following the 2023 season. He’s not expected to pitch in 2024 but is on track to be ready to be in his next team’s Opening Day lineup as a designated hitter. There’s been some speculation this week that the bidding could push closer to a staggering $600MM. It’s heavily speculative at this juncture, given the by-design quiet nature of Ohtani’s foray into the open market.
Ohtani, 29, will be a transformative presence in any lineup he joins. A career .274/.366/.556 hitter, he’s stepped up his offensive game in recent seasons. He’s not quite on the same level as Aaron Judge or longtime teammate Mike Trout in terms of per-game production, but Ohtani has also been in the lineup more than both players over the past three seasons, even after missing the final several weeks of the ’23 campaign due to that elbow injury and an oblique strain. Since 2021, only Judge, Kyle Schwarber and Matt Olson have hit more than Ohtani’s 124 home runs. Only Judge, Trout and Yordan Alvarez have topped Ohtani’s massive 157 wRC+ (indicating that he’s been 57% better than a league average hitter after weighting for home park and league run-scoring environment). In that time, Ohtani carries a .277/.379/.585 batting line.
That’s only half the story with Ohtani, who finished fourth in 2022 American League Cy Young voting and has emerged as a legitimate top-of-the-rotation starter — when healthy. That’s a massive caveat in light of an earlier Tommy John surgery and now a second elbow procedure (details of which remain nebulous to public onlookers). But over the past three seasons, Ohtani has pitched 428 1/3 innings 2.84 ERA ball with an elite 31.4% strikeout rate and an 8.3% walk rate.
If Ohtani is able to return to those heights following a second elbow surgery, there’s a very feasible path to him simultaneously winning a league MVP and Cy Young Award. His ability to regain that form, of course, is the single largest question mark surrounding him. There’s no doubt that Ohtani will pitch again in some capacity, but his expected level of success will remain a talking point until he actually takes the mound. At this point, he’s proven that it’s foolish to bet against him — but even if Ohtani can’t recapture that ace form, there’s plenty of value in him beyond that of a pure designated hitter. If he could pitch even as a capable mid-rotation starter or perhaps effective reliever, that’d be immensely valuable in and of itself.
And, even if Ohtani is simply never able to regain his form as a viable MLB pitcher, there’s no reason to think he’d “only” be a designated hitter. He’s played in the outfield both in Japan and (far more briefly) with the Angels. Ohtani still possesses above-average sprint speed, per Statcast, and there’s some reason to think he could improve upon last year’s 63rd-percentile ranking if he were focusing only on hitting and playing the outfield. He’s swiped 86 bases in his career, including a 20-for-26 showing this past season. The arm strength is clearly there, as is the raw athleticism needed to handle the position. At that point, Ohtani could be viewed in a somewhat comparable light to that of Judge, who signed a nine-year, $360MM contract when he was two years older than Ohtani is at present.
The off-field value associated with Ohtani can’t be discounted, either. Any team signing him will be tapping into a global fanbase that’ll boost merchandise sales, ticket sales, television ratings and more. Ohtani’s broad-reaching brand won’t pay for his salary on its own, but it’s a clear factor that any interested club will be weighing and attempting to contextualize/value when putting forth its best offer.
With a decision looming on Ohtani, let’s open it up for MLBTR readers with a poll:
By Darragh McDonald | at
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By Steve Adams | at
As the ongoing free agency of Shohei Ohtani continues to hold up the remainder of the free agent and trade markets, Jon Morosi of MLB.com reports that the two-time American League MVP is expected to make a decision on his free-agent destination before the end of the weekend.
Ohtani’s free agency has, by design, been shrouded in secrecy. He and agent Nez Balelo of CAA Sports have worked to keep rumors of his potential destination under wraps, and many clubs have reportedly been wary of leaking information or commenting on Ohtani’s free agency in any capacity, for fear that it may hurt their chances of signing him.
Dodgers skipper Dave Roberts bucked that trend yesterday by announcing that his team recently hosted Ohtani for a meeting at Dodger Stadium and stating the obvious: that Ohtani is the Dodgers’ top priority. There’s been plenty of hand-wringing among Dodger faithful that Roberts’ comments harmed the team’s chances, though Morosi said in an appearance on MLB Network this morning that he does not see “in any way” that Roberts’ acknowledgment of what everyone already knew would serve as a deterrent to getting a deal done. It’d indeed be rather surprising if Ohtani’s decision on where he’ll play the next 10 to 13 seasons at a likely price tag north of $500MM were substantially impacted by a team’s manager simply acknowledging interest that has been anticipated for more than a year.
As it stands, the Dodgers are definitively known to have met with Ohtani. Reports this week indicated that the Blue Jays and Giants were also likely to have held sitdowns with the two-way star — the Jays at their spring complex in Dunedin, Fla. and the Giants at Oracle Park in San Francisco. The incumbent Angels are also believed to be in the mix still. Last night, Cubs president of baseball operations Jed Hoyer vehemently refuted reports that his own club’s optimism of landing Ohtani had “significantly waned.” It’s not known when or whether the Cubs hosted a meeting of their own with Ohtani, but Hoyer’s comments keep the door open for them as well.
Whether there are any darkhorse clubs who’ve managed to keep their involvement entirely off the radar is unclear, though that possibility can’t be discounted, given the nature of Ohtani’s free agency and the sheer demand an unprecedented talent like this has created. The Red Sox, Mets and Rangers were all involved early on in the process, but they’ve since appeared to shift their attention elsewhere after falling behind in the bidding.
If Ohtani indeed makes his decision in the next 96 hours or so (give or take), that would in all likelihood set the stage for the proverbial offseason floodgates to open. None of the reported finalists has been willing to make a significant move until learning whether they’ll be the team to ultimately reel in Ohtani. As such, that’s directly impacted the market for names like Yoshinobu Yamamoto (presumably a target of all finalists in the Ohtani bidding), top free agent bats like Cody Bellinger (a potential Giants, Jays or Angels target if Ohtani goes elsewhere) and even trade candidates like Tyler Glasnow and Shane Bieber, whose teams surely want to gauge interest from the runners-up in the Ohtani bidding.
By Darragh McDonald | at
Earlier today, a report from Bob Nightengale of USA Today said that the Cubs were falling out of the bidding for Shohei Ohtani, saying that their “optimism of landing Ohtani has now significantly waned.” However, the club’s president of baseball operations Jed Hoyer denied that framing at the Winter Meetings. “I don’t know where that came from,” Hoyer said to Maddie Lee of the Chicago Sun-Times. “There’s no nothing to report whatsoever.”
The Ohtani sweepstakes have been notably unusual since he and his camp reportedly prefer a shroud of secrecy over the proceedings. Reporting appears to indicate that the field is down to five clubs: The Dodgers, Angels, Blue Jays, Cubs and Giants. Ohtani is “believed” to have met with the Jays recently and there were “indications” of a meeting with the Giants prior to that. Dodgers manager Dave Roberts decided not to play the cloak-and-dagger games, straight up admitting that his club recently met with Ohtani.
Overall, information has been tougher to come by than a typical free agency, but Hoyer felt compelled to address today’s reporting. He said they have not been given a “status check” from Ohtani’s reps but wouldn’t discuss the club’s interest beyond that. Earlier today, manager Craig Counsell was asked about having meetings with Ohtani and replied “I have not,” per Meghan Montemurro of the Chicago Tribune. When asked if the front office had met with Ohtani, he repeated his “I have not” response.
The Cubs currently have a payroll of $178MM, per Roster Resource. That’s $25MM shy of their franchise high payroll of $203MM, per the figures at Cot’s Baseball Contracts. Ohtani is expected to require a contract with an average annual value somewhere in the $40-50MM range, but it stands to reason the Cubs would probably have some willingness to go beyond previous spending levels for such a uniquely talented player as Ohtani. Beyond his on-field talents, he is a big international star who should be able to provide his next club with extra revenue via increased ratings, merchandise sales and ticket sales.
One club that seems to be in the opposite position is Atlanta. It was reported recently by Jon Morosi of MLB.com that the club was “actively involved” in the Ohtani bidding. But president of baseball operations Alex Anthopoulos seemed to contradict that in speaking to the media today. When asked about the club’s interest in Ohtani, he said the only position player they’ve pursued this offseason is Jarred Kelenic, per Justin Toscano of the Atlanta Journal-Constitution. They acquired Kelenic earlier this week and Anthopoulos says they are now happy with the lineup and group of position players.
Ohtani would upgrade any team in the world but it’s unclear where his priorities lie. He could go for the largest guarantee or a contract with multiple opt-outs, or perhaps something different like geography or a club’s ability to win, or perhaps a combination of those factors. Given the secrecy around the meetings, it’s also unclear how each club is pitching Ohtani or what kind of offers they are discussing.
By Steve Adams | at
After droves of secrecy and anonymous reporting about secret meetings between Shohei Ohtani and various suitors, Dodgers skipper Dave Roberts refreshingly came right out and told reporters that his club recently hosted Ohtani for a visit at Dodgers Stadium (link via Jack Harris of the L.A. Times). Roberts added that Ohtani is “clearly our top priority.” Asked why he was so direct when other clubs have gone to great measures to conceal their efforts to negotiate with Ohtani, Roberts replied (via MLB.com’s Anthony Castrovince): “I don’t feel like lying is something I do. I was asked a question. … It’s going to come out at some point.”
The Dodgers have long been viewed as the likeliest team to sign Ohtani. That’s due to myriad factors, ranging from Ohtani’s prior preference for a West Coast club (during his original foray into MLB free agency) and the Dodgers’ virtually limitless payroll capabilities, among others. The L.A. front office declined to make designated hitter J.D. Martinez a qualifying offer on the heels of a resurgent 33-homer season, reportedly in large part to keep the DH spot in the lineup clear for a potential run at Ohtani.
Ohtani has drawn interest from a wide array of teams, as one would expect from the most prominent two-way star the sport has ever seen. Over the past few days, however, several clubs have appeared to believe their chances to land Ohtani have shrunk. The Red Sox, Mets and Rangers are said to have shifted their focus to other players, while just a couple hours ago it was reported that the Cubs’ optimism in their own pursuit has “significantly waned.”
The Dodgers currently project for a $157MM payroll, per Roster Resource, with just shy of $175MM of luxury tax obligations on the books. That leaves ample room to sign Ohtani without even reaching the $237MM tax threshold, although subsequent additions following a theoretical Ohtani deal could still put the Dodgers firmly into tax territory. That hasn’t been a concern for them in the past, however; the Dodgers have incurred luxury penalties each year since 2019.
Ohtani is believed to have had meetings with the Blue Jays and the Giants in recent days as well. Los Angeles, Toronto, San Francisco and the incumbent Angels are the four prominent names reported to remain in the bidding, although given the cloak-and-dagger nature of Ohtani’s free agency, it’s certainly possible there are other clubs still lurking in the mix to sign him.
By Steve Adams | at
Shohei Ohtani’s camp at CAA has done a good job keeping his free agency a relatively silent endeavor, but there have been occasional indicators that his market is beginning to narrow. ESPN’s Jeff Passan reported last week that the Red Sox, Rangers and Mets had shifted their focus to players other than Ohtani, not believing themselves to be strong contenders to land him. Today, USA Today’s Bob Nightengale reports that the Cubs are in a similar position. Chicago’s “optimism of landing Ohtani has now significantly waned,” per Nightengale, citing a high-ranking team executive.
Known suitors for Ohtani generally include the Dodgers, Blue Jays, Angels and Giants. (Others have surely expressed interest throughout the offseason.) If the Cubs are indeed pessimistic and/or turning their attention elsewhere, that makes four teams in the past four days that are now said to be increasingly doubtful about their chances of landing the two-time AL MVP. Given the secretive nature of Ohtani’s market, it’s always possible there are additional, surprise suitors lurking, but to this point there’s little to no indication of the ever-popular “mystery team” joining the fray.
As a major market club with long-term needs in the rotation and an immediate gap at designated hitter, the Cubs made plenty of sense as an Ohtani suitor. Chicago’s projected $178MM payroll is a ways of from the franchise-record $203MM Opening Day mark, and for a player like Ohtani it stands to reason that most clubs would be comfortable stretching beyond their previously established comfort levels. Ohtani could’ve slotted into the 2025 rotation alongside Justin Steele and would’ve added a thunderous left-handed bat to a lineup that could well lose resurgent Cody Bellinger, who is also a free agent.
Over the past few days, reports have emerged of in-person meetings between Ohtani’s camp and a few clubs. Ken Rosenthal of The Athletic reported yesterday that the Blue Jays are “believed” to have met with Ohtani at their spring complex on Monday, when GM Ross Atkins was noticeably absent from the site of the Winter Meetings in Nashville and conducted his media availability via Zoom. Susan Slusser of the San Francisco Chronicle similarly reported that there were “indications” of a weekend meeting between the Giants and Ohtani at Oracle Park in San Francisco.
Suffice it to say, most teams have been quite wary of tipping their hand and perhaps harming their chances of hammering out a deal with Ohtani, who clearly wants a free-agent experience that does not play out in the public eye. While there was originally hope that Ohtani might make a decision at this week’s Winter Meetings, over the past 48 hours each of Nightengale, Jon Heyman of the New York Post and others have begun to suggest that Ohtani could continue conducting meetings with teams after this week’s event.
By Anthony Franco | at
Blue Jays officials are “believed” to have met with Shohei Ohtani at the team’s complex in Dunedin on Monday, writes Ken Rosenthal of the Athletic. It’s the latest development in a free agency process shrouded in secrecy, as Ohtani’s camp has reportedly made clear that the superstar would hold it against teams if they leak pertinent information.
Speculation about Ohtani and the Jays heightened this afternoon when Toronto general manager Ross Atkins switched his media availability to a Zoom conference. Atkins declined to specify his location, but his absence from Nashville’s Winter Meetings indicated he had other priorities. The Jays called the matter a “scheduling conflict.”
Ohtani meeting with Jays’ officials, assuming that was indeed the case, affirms that they’re in the running for the AL MVP. Yet it doesn’t necessarily mean they’re a clear favorite. Rosenthal adds that the Dodgers and Cubs are involved, with other teams possibly still under consideration.
To that end, Susan Slusser of the San Francisco Chronicle wrote this evening that there are “indications” Ohtani had met with Giants’ brass on Saturday. Team officials were spotted at Oracle Park, while Slusser wrote on Saturday of “rumblings” that Ohtani was in San Francisco.
As a result of Ohtani’s evident desire to keep the process as mysterious as possible, executives and coaches with every team involved have steadfastly remained quiet. Angels manager Ron Washington joked at his media availability today that he “didn’t have anything to say about (Ohtani’s free agency) right now, because (he didn’t) want to let anything out of the bag” (video provided by Beyond the Halo).
With Ohtani’s free agency contributing to a slow pace early in the offseason, many fans have hoped for a resolution at the Winter Meetings. That may not be coming. Jon Heyman of the New York Post wrote on Monday afternoon that Ohtani could continue meeting with interested teams beyond the conclusion of the meetings on Wednesday.
By Nick Deeds | at
A potential trade of White Sox right-hander Dylan Cease has been among the most prominent storylines of the offseason to this point, as White Sox GM Chris Getz has made clear that his club is operating with no untouchables as they look to retool after a 101-loss season. One of the teams most frequently connected to Cease is the Braves, who have a clear need in their rotation after losing Kyle Wright to shoulder surgery and subsequently dealing him to the Royals earlier this offseason.
MLB.com’s Mark Bowman pushed back against reports of Atlanta’s involvement in the Cease sweepstakes today, however, even as speculation regarding the right-hander has begun to intensify alongside the start of the Winter Meetings. Bowman acknowledges that the 27-year-old hurler was on the club’s radar earlier in the offseason but indicates that there isn’t “currently a fit” between the sides while suggesting that Atlanta’s level of interest and involvement in trade talks with Chicago has been “overblown.”
Bowman’s report also indicates that the Braves haven’t shown “serious interest” in two-way superstar Shohei Ohtani this offseason. While the Braves are not among the teams that have been most frequently connected to Ohtani’s market this offseason, Bowman’s characterization is a significant departure from a report earlier today from Jon Morosi of MLB Network, who suggested that the Braves not only have shown interest in Ohtani but are one of the teams still “actively involved” in the negotiation process.
While Bowman downplays the club’s interest in making a headline-grabbing move for Cease or Ohtani, he nonetheless suggests that the Braves are “not done” following last night’s move to acquire Jarred Kelenic, Marco Gonzales and Evan White from the Mariners, leaving the door open to the possibility the Braves make “at least one more big move.” Such a deal could even come in the form of a trade for a front-line starter, with Bowman suggesting Corbin Burnes and Tyler Glasnow as possible alternatives to Cease on the trade market.
Of course, it’s worth noting that the club is in uncharted territory in terms of payroll. After posting a franchise record payroll of $205MM in 2023 (per RosterResource), the Braves are currently projected for an Opening Day payroll of $220MM in 2024, with a luxury tax figure of just over $256MM. That puts them right up against the second tax threshold of $257MM, meaning that the club would surely need to shed payroll before making further moves if they hope to avoid that second threshold. Bowman echoes reporting from earlier today that suggested the Braves will attempt to flip Gonzales, who is owed $12.25MM in 2024, before the offseason comes to a close. In addition to the possibility of flipping Gonzales, Bowman suggests the club could look to “sell high” on either DH Marcell Ozuna or closer Raisel Iglesias in deals that would simultaneously shed salary while potentially bringing in additional talent.
Ozuna is owed $18MM in 2024, the final guaranteed year of his contract that also includes a $16MM club option with a $1MM buyout for 2025. The 33-year-old slugger is coming off a strong season at the plate during which he slashed .274/.346/.558 while crushing 40 home runs, 29 doubles, and a triple. While he’s largely limited to DH at this point in his career, he’d surely draw interest on the trade market from clubs looking to upgrade their lineup; just six hitters reached the 40-homer plateau in 2023, and just four posted a higher ISO than Ozuna’s .285 figure.
Iglesias, meanwhile, posted a 2.75 ERA and 3.26 FIP while collecting 33 saves for the Braves across 55 2/3 innings of work. It’s the fourth-consecutive season in which Iglesias has posted an ERA below 3.o0 as the 33-year-old has emerged as one of the most reliable closers in the league in recent years. Excellent as Iglesias has been, he’s guaranteed a $16MM salary in each of the next two seasons. That’s a hefty sum to pay for a reliever even with Iglesias’s pedigree. Bowman also points out the club has plenty of established back-end relief options who could anchor the bullpen if Iglesias were to be moved including left-hander A.J. Minter and offseason addition Reynaldo Lopez, though it’s worth noting the club currently plans to stretch the righty out as a potential starting option for 2024.
By Mark Polishuk | at
1:32PM: The numbers continue to escalate for Ohtani, as Jon Heyman of the New York Post writes that “Ohtani is believed to already have received multiple bids well north of $500MM, and some speculate he could even wind up as baseball’s first $600MM man.”
11:49AM: Shohei Ohtani’s free agent sweepstakes have been largely shrouded in mystery, as Ohtani and agent Nez Balelo have specifically prioritized a low profile approach to perhaps the most high-profile free agency in baseball history. As such, there has been a lot of speculation and relatively little facts about Ohtani’s market, though there are some indications that the two-time AL MVP might be coming somewhat closer to a decision.
MLB Network’s Jon Morosi (X link) hears from a source that Ohtani “is likely to” make his choice within the week, though this timeline could indicate that the news could come after the Winter Meetings have concluded. USA Today’s Bob Nightengale has a slightly different timeline, indicating that Ohtani will make his choice “certainly before the Christmas holidays” but also more than a week from now, so roughly mid-December.
It isn’t a stretch to say that whenever Ohtani does make the call, it will automatically become the most pivotal day of the offseason calendar. Ohtani is widely expected to sign the largest contract in baseball history, and thus his free agency has to some extent held up the market as a whole. Such known suitors as the Angels, Dodgers, Blue Jays, Giants, and Cubs have largely held off on any other major business until they know if they’ll be adding a $500MM+ Ohtani contract to their long-term payroll plans. As such, several top players have yet to make their own free agent decisions, waiting for these big-spending potential suitors to more fully engage in the rest of the market — and possibly be more eager to spend elsewhere after missing out on Ohtani.
Since it’s only December 3, it’s worth reminding that the offseason isn’t even at the halfway point yet, and Ohtani is hardly taking any sort of unusually long time in deciding on his next team. Given the sport-altering amounts of money involved and how any free agent decision big or small is a life-changing decision for a player, it would’ve been more surprising if Ohtani had already made his choice this relatively early into the winter.
So little is known about Ohtani’s thought process that it is hard to say whether or not the aforementioned five teams (or any possible mystery teams) could be true finalists. However, the last few days has seen the Red Sox, Rangers, and Mets reportedly all step back from the Ohtani sweepstakes in some sense, perhaps indicating that the bidding has either gotten too high, or that Ohtani’s camp has given some indication that these three clubs are no longer in consideration.
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