The Milwaukee Brewers have had a busy offseason (especially over the course of the past week), and they appear to be nearing the end of a surprisingly short rebuild.
Just last week, it would have seemed odd to count the Brewers as serious contenders for an NL Central pennant in 2018, considering the apparent strength of the rival Cubs and Cardinals. But the Brew Crew shocked the baseball world by acquiring Christian Yelich from the Marlins and signing Lorenzo Cain to a five-year contract within a span of two hours. They’ve since signed Matt Albers to a two-year contract as well, who’ll join lefty Boone Logan as veteran upgrades to the club’s bullpen.
But even after all those upgrades, Fangraphs still projects the Brewers to finish with a record of 77-85. That’s surprising on the surface considering the club’s 86-76 record in 2017 in combination with the team’s offseason moves thus far. But when taking an in-depth look at the club’s roster, they have some key holes that may hurt their ability to compete with more complete teams.
The club’s rotation is their most obvious issue. Jimmy Nelson, who took an enormous leap forward last season, will be sidelined until June while recovering from a torn labrum. Chase Anderson and Zach Davies seem like safe bets, but beyond them is a risky and seemingly low-ceiling group that includes Brent Suter, Yovani Gallardo and Jhoulys Chacin. That’s not to say that the Cubs and Cardinals don’t have their own sets of question marks, but the Brewers’ rotation without Nelson could prove somewhat of a white-knuckle experience for fans.
It’s not as though the club can simply lean on its bullpen, either. Corey Knebel and Josh Hader will serve as an intimidating closer and fireman, respectively, but beyond them there’s plenty of uncertainty. The recently-signed Matt Albers isn’t a lock to repeat the figures of his career year in 2017, and Boone Logan is returning from a lat strain that sidelined him for the final two months of his contract with the Indians last season. The remainder of the club’s relief corps is a ragtag group that includes Junior Guerra, Jacob Barnes, Olivier Drake and the declining Jeremy Jeffress. The bridge to Hader and Knebel is a rickety one.
Milwaukee’s offense can probably be looked at as a strength, but it’s not without holes of its own. It remains to be seen whether Jonathan Villar can bounce back from an incredibly poor 2017 campaign during which he struck out more than 30% of the time and posted an on-base percentage below .300. The club will also count on 30-year-old catcher Manny Pina to sustain his sudden offensive breakout.
That being said, the Brewers lineup on the whole is intimidating, to say the least, particularly if the young Orlando Arcia takes another step forward, Travis Shaw keeps his foot on the gas and Ryan Braun remains mostly healthy. If things break right, their offense could end up being on par with those of the Cubs and Cardinals.
It’s time for the readers to weigh in. Sure, there’s some offseason left to go, and a pitching market that could certainly shift the division’s power balance once the dominoes begin to fall. But as things stand right now, do you think the Brewers are a playoff team?
(Poll link for app users)
NL Central division winners in my estimation.
Yessir
Adding 2 outfielders suddenly makes them contenders? I know it’s been a very slow off-season but all this hoopla is misplaced.
I’m thinking the same. Don’t print the tshirt just yet.
I agree with you on that
Ehh, honestly they’re still not favorites. They have enough talent to fall in that reasonable category of “you never know” but I wouldn’t wager on it. The Cubs have the best infield all around the diamond in talent and depth in the division. The Cardinals are are also better in the infield than the Brewers. As it stands now, I would expect Milwaukee’s outfield to be the most productive of the three as it’s there positional strength. A caveat to that though is the positional strength of the Cardinals also lies within the outfield. Ozuna, Pham and Fowler is pretty good. If Pham puts up a similar output as 2017, (which I’m skeptical) then they may even be better than Milwaukee. The Cubs outfield is no slouch but still more than likely won’t reach the output the Brewers or Cardinals will have out there. Not if Heyward gets 500 ab’s. The rest is relying on young guys to step forward like schwarber and almora. Can happ get the playing time due to not have an everyday position?. Fairly high ceiling but the floor could look like 2017. Regardless, I see all 3 teams scoring runs. The biggest separation as currently stands sits with the starting pitching. The Cubs have the best, the Cardinals have the deepest. The Brewers need a higher end arm to close the gap. Bullpen wise I like both Milwaukee and the Cubs for different reasons. The Cubs have a very deep bullpen with a yet to be seen 9th inning. The Brewers have a back end that scares me with a potential Hader and Knebel duo. In the end I see all three being in the mix but I don’t see 90+ wins on the Brewers roster (without outperforming many peripherals again) which is a pre requisite at this point in time to win the nl central.
best infield all around? maybe offensively but not on defense. Bryant and Contreras both led the NL in errors at their positions.
‘Errors’ is your measuring stick? We are nearly 2 decades past 1999 ..
And you forgot the other 75% of the infield
2 of 5 positions is actually far more than 25%. Just saying.
Well all stars most of the time are NOT the best fielders. All judged on total contributions. .
that’s pretty much how you judge a defensive ability at least to start. Bryant is getting close to the errors Braun had his rookie season before they moved him to the OF
haha what the hell does 1999 have to do with anything?
Bryant had 18 errors in 144 games at 3rd last year. That’s awful. Cubs can’t move Bryant to LF either because then where do you play the other defensive liability in Schwarber?
Looking at advanced metrics, Bryant rated better at defense than Travis Shaw last year (#10 in MLB):
fangraphs.com/leaders.aspx?pos=3b&stats=fld&#…
Quite a bit better, but but but Bryant had more errors!!!!!
Bryant was worth 1 DRS so he’s average at best, defensively. If you combine it with the errors it could look worse.
No one is close to Braun, he has the worst ever defensive stats at 3B and it’s not close. Braun was -32 in runs saved in 2007, including 26 errors in just 112 games.
for a player that cub fans act like he is the greatest player ever he is not good defensively. sorry but the best 3b in baseball should not have the most errors regardless of advanced metrics. he has more range but that doesn’t matter if he throws away from the target base.
shaw was very solid on defense. I think a .975 Fielding %. that’s pretty good for a guy that supposedly is worse.
He’s not even the most valuable player on the Cubs, quit lumping all cubs fans together. You stated he’s close to Braun defensively at 3B, it’s not even close, Braun was historically bad at 3B. Bryant is average defensively, no one is saying he’s a gold glover, and looking advanced metrics, you know how they actually measure defense, he’s top 10.
10th of 30 teams suggests better than average, no?
I won’t come close to saying that he’s the greatest player ever, but Bryant’s done something that no one else has ever done:
2013 – Golden Spikes Award (Top Amateur Player)
2014 – Minor League Player of the Year
2015 – Rookie of the Year
2016 – MVP
Defense at 3B is an area of weakness, but he makes up for it in more ways than one. And, as we pointed out, he was still top-10 in defense last year.
Yep cubs defense absolutely horrible
Some cub fans get very sensitive @Appbrewers, you’re right though
If there’s a 3rd baseman that can run faster than kris Bryant, hit the ball further than kris Bryant and has a higher OBP than kris bryant in the mlb please come talk to me. I’ll take the type of player he is any day over the competition. And to think that he didn’t have a down year defensively would be foolish. His body of work would say otherwise.
In 2016 he had a .953 fielding % at 3B. 2017 he had .949. 2015 he had a .951%. So his entire career has been a down year defensively huh?
Nolan Arenado is a better 3B than Bryant
The last time fielding % was regarded as a remotely relevant stat, the Brewers were still in the AL.
Arenado is much better than Bryant on both offense and defense. Not impressed with Brewers, although I do like Yelich. He should help their offense. The pitching looks very shaky. The “upgrades” in the bullpen won’t help a bit.
he was a rookie that year, which let me remind you. he won rookie of the year as well. regardless.
he was a rookie that year. let me remind you he won rookie of the year as well.
won rookie of the year at 3b.
Well thought out and presented.
cubs deep bullpen? no closer, wilson never faced a batter he didnt walk, signed a bunch of ? bounce back tjs recoveries, unhappy 5th starter/reliever and washed up former closers.
Good analysis. IMO, the bottom line for the Brewers, will come down to getting enough quality starts and not overtaxing the bullpen…
They need to add a solid SP – maybe then they’ll have a shot at wildcard.
As stands now though I see a regression from last year.
Case in point – my 2015 Padres.
Yes. One sane person. Where’s all our buddies from the last few Brewers threads. “Buh… Buh… Buh… They contended last year!”
See I would agree if they didn’t improve this offseason. All the “brewers got lucky” guys out there don’t take into account Braun will be better this year, Thames CANT be as bad as he was in the second half, Villar will be better, added Cain, added Yelich, added Chacin to the backend, subtracted Peralta and his 7.85 ERA, subtracted Garza and his 4.85 ERA and replaced Swarzak with Albers.
Oh and not to mention the expected improvement from Arica and taking out Feliz from the pen.
There are problems with that:
1) The underlying stats don’t indicate that we are likely to see improvement from Braun or Villar. Both players are experiencing a fall in speed that in correlating with lower BABIPs, which is sure to drag down average. Villar’s strikeout rate has climbed as well, so he has suffered especially. Where do you anticipate a bounce back?
2) I agree that Arcia should improve, but that along with the additions of Cain and Yelich are factored in to team projections. Furthermore, you can’t add 100% of the value contributed by Yelich and Cain because they are taking the spots of approximately replacement level players. You can only consider their surplus value. All in all these players do not offset the expected regression from the offense as a whole.
3) Same can be said of pitching, which has seen VERY marginal improvements. They didn’t even have a good year last year yet the underlying stats indicate they were very lucky. I doubt Albers brings them back 12 ranks of luck plus another 5-10 merit ranks to be relevant on pitching. They need very major upgrades in both the rotation and pen to have a legitimate expectation of contending.
Again, your constant problem analytically is that you love to add value but you never seem to be able to objectively subtract, and you always seem to add too much.
What reason do you have to not expect Villar’s numbers (mainly walk %, K%, avg, OBP% and SLG%) to trend toward his career norms? You are basing his regression of one season. To assume he will go back to 2016 isn’t realistic but an uptick in numbers from 2017 to career averages is realistic and would in turn make him more productive.
Braun was extremely unlucky last year also. His K% and BB% were actually better than his career marks and his BABIP was down at .292 from his career mark of .331. While I don’t think he gets back up to a .331 BABIP average an increase from .292 should be expected and in turn produce better results. I would agree with speed being an issue for Braun if he hadn’t swiped 12 bags in 104 games compared to 16 in 140 in 2016. With Braun it comes to health. If he is on the field for 120 games his numbers will be far better than 2016.
Albers certainly replaces Swarzak. A full year of Hader in the pen as well as Knebel closing will benefit as well. Do you need another reliever? Probably but to say we need ‘major’ pen additions isn’t correct. We do however need a major rotation add. That I will agree with.
Braun dropping off – yes. Villar? He’s only 26. He’s coming into his prime, he should rebound nicely, somewhere between his 4 WAR 2016 and his screwed up 2017.
Arcia will continue to improve slowly, his defense already makes him the top SS in the NL. Cain and Yelich are upgrades over Broxton, and defensively better than Santana and Braun. Cain gives the Brewers a true CF, and Yelich gives them another lefty bat that can slot in the leadoff spot without having obvious flaws (Santana, Thames, Broxton, Sogard, etc. had been used there) if Villar doesn’t rebound from 2017.
Pitching is the entire question at this point (isn’t it always, for everyone?). And I think this poll is a little premature because the club’s chances are going to look a lot better when Darvish is signed. The bullpen has good depth and experience.
Well here’s an addition by subtraction. Garza is gone. Peralta is gone. Feliz is gone. Torres is gone. Drake will be gone (Hopefully). Riddle me this… How much does this subtraction add?
If you’re arguing that Braun and the young brewers should improve next year, you’d have to weigh that against virtually the entire young cubs lineup improving, as their average age is still only roughly 25 years old.
Huh? Last weeks additions still does not put them anywhere near the Cubs!!! Brewers have no more money to spend (let’s see) and the Cubs will have a coveted free agent pitcher to add………Go Cubbies!!!
The Brewers owner stated yesterday they have the money available to sign one of the top 4 pitchers
anywhere close to the cubs? forget about last year? the junk pitchers from the beginning of the year are gone. if knebel closed all year Brewers could have easily had half a dozen more wins. more if Guerra wasn’t injured and got himself all out of whack.
you forget Brewers had one of the top pitching staffs in all of baseball.
It’s this way for all teams.. Culda wulda shulda..
yeah but cubs lost two very good pitchers in arrieta and Davis. they actually lost good pitching when Brewers lost the bad pitching
Will cubs be like the 85 Bears? All the talent and only one championship? Is Madden the current Ditka? Nice to see the brewers improving the weakness of the NL central
Just like a Cubs/Yankees/Dodgers fan to brag that they’ll be better because their owners have deeper pockets. Yay we’re gonna outspend you! The fact that the Brewers were even close to the Cubs last year with a 63 mil payroll is a testament to the Cubs slightly above average-ness.
True word. Well done sir.
*Words
The Brewers’ ownership came out at their fan fest and said they still have money to spend on pitching. Plus they have an outfielder to deal for pitching.
Not really,
The have not fixed pitching.
That will hold them back.
I still have the Cubs winning the division this year.
PS, not a cubs fan, but a Reds fan.
I still have us at 4th this year
I think they will make the playoffs, but I also think they need to add some pitching for them to really have an edge over The Cubs and Cardinals.
Bet the house on it, man. But don’t complain when you’re homeless in October
Trash
Yes playoff team 90-92 wins as of now
I see you added some wins for each of Cain and Yelich, but did you bother making any adjustments to last year’s win count?
Yeah he added wins for loosing Matt Garza and Wily Peralta. That’ll take away 8-10 sure losses by itself.
any chance he looked into Chase Anderson not being that good and Nelson’s injury? if Gallardo plays anywhere but pinch hitting, that also will not help. They don’t have a 4th starter, let alone a 5th.
vegas makes money for a reason, and if you look at their current season futures, Milwaukee is behind Chicago and STL. No one with half a brain thinks Milwaukee is finishing ahead of both.
Yes, only those with fully functioning brains think that. Good to see you admit you don’t have a fully functioning brain.
Yeah man you just need to get off this site. If the Brewers weren’t such a threat to you and your cubbies you wouldn’t be on here commenting on every Brewers fans comment. Grow up dude
Oh brother
My point is he failed to make objective subtractions, of which there are a ton. The kind of projecting you two are doing is what I like to call “fangirl analytics,” except your approach is kind of light on the analytics part of that
As a cubs fan what about their regression? The loss of Arietta and Davis alone takes away wins. How about Lester being 34 and his HR given up % going up each of the last 4 seasons? How about everyone buying Chatwood even though he had a .283 BABIP (20 points below his career average) and still pitched to a 4.69. Not to mention he gives up a HR per 9IP. They haven’t replaced Jay’s .374 OBP and 1.6 WAR at the top of the lineup either. Baez got extremely lucky with a .345 BABIP and will certainly decline. The guy stuck out 28% of his at bats!
I assume that the Cubs might just have a little bit more room for error, even with the things you mentioned above. Replacing 2017 Jake with Quintana does not seem like a falling off of a cliff, even if Quintana is not as good. Replacing the homerun friendliest pitcher of ’17 in Lackey for Chatwood seems like an obvious upgrade. Lester is older, but he is better than any pitcher on the Brewers as currently constucted, even if he isn’t, his track record can be trusted more than any of them that will line up to start the season. They have a nice seat on the bench for Baez if he regresses and 2 major insurance policies who can replace him whenever he slumps in Zobrist and Happ. The depth the Cubs have maintained probably allow them to survive the things you mentioned. The Cubs have to overcome adversity just like any other team, they are probably just more equipped to do so than many other teams and that is why they are the favorites to win the division.
Lackey and Chatwood had identical ERA’s last year. Not to mention Cubs had Q and Arietta last year for the second half. That’s when they made their run. You can’t simply ‘replace’ Arietta with Q given you had them both for 3+ months of the year last year.
You forgot Feliz and Torres and hopefully Drake that are gone too.
Good point! Here’s the thing, Chatwood (like everyone else who makes their home in Coors) pitched 17 games at home and hitters feasted to the tune of a .302 avg./.349 OBP on 81 hits and 47 ER in only 70 innings which equals a 6.01 ERA as compared to his 3.49ERA in 77 innings where he gave up only 55 hits and 30 earned runs, good for a .200 Batting average against and .299 OBP to opposing hitters in 16 road games. I’d say those numbers away from Coors are far and away better than any numbers you can dig up on 2017 Lackey. That was the point I was making. And to repeat, Chatwood replaces Lackey, and as previously stated, Q is not falling off of a cliff as far as comparables to Jake. I see you missed that, even though I stated it twice in my original text.
You’re comparing players by ERA alone and neglecting to even mention the reason why Chatwood put up mediocre results in the first place.
Just stop here.
Vegas sets the lines with the goal of winning money. They aren’t trying to get the order exactly right, they are trying to balance the betting so they win money. Keeping the Cubs “ahead” of another team can often be about value. They don’t need to set more favorable odds because they will get a ton of bets regardless because they are one of baseball’s most popular teams, so there is no need to provide more favorable odds. I’m not saying MIL will take the division, just that Vegas is looking to distribute the risk so they land in the black.
I don’t think they’ll make it, but they’ll be really close again.
They should make it, especially once they add another starter. They have a great lineup and bullpen. Besides the rotation which should be fixed soon (hopefully) I don’t see where people are finding huge flaws in this team. They are a great team
Well great maybe pushing it until they are.
The Rotation is the key, with no changes, they will be close, but might fall short.
Predictions are great but baseball is played on the field. Teams outperform expectations all the time, last years Yankees case in point. I say give em a chance to prove themselves they’re sure as hell trying.
“If everything breaks right their offense could be on par with the cubs and cardinals”. Brewers offense is already better than the Cardinals.
Disagree, but that’s definitely subjective and there’s a case for either side I suppose.
Cardinals have the better pitching absolutely, but Milwaukees offense is lightyears ahead of the Cardinals offense, I’m not sure what you’re looking at
No way are the cards light years behind the crew offensively. My god, all these moves and it’s made the Milwaukee fans even dumber than usual.
Lol light years ahead? The Cardinals outfield is still better than the brewers if you go by the numbers…I like Yelich but Phams numbers were better last year…Ozuna is considered the best left fielder in the game…and I’ll take Fowler over the cheat Braun any day…light years lol
Light years? No. But last year Brewers hit .249 as a team STL hit .256. Brewers add Cain, Yelich who will both hit .290 plus. Not to mention a healthier season of Braun paired with there is no way Pham hits over .300 and Gyrko hits .272 again. Runs were 30 difference in favor of STL but adding Yelich and Cain will certainly change that as well. HR/SLG already went to the Crew last year.
So Milwaukee bettered STL in HR’s and slugging…great, STL was ahead of them in everything else. Does everyone think Milwaukee will overachieve again? i don’t. Does everyone believe STL will improve with the addition of Ozuna? I do. Fowler had a rough year, I believe he bounces back and Pham is just getting started. STL is better overall, no doubt, Milwaukee makes a few good moves and their fans go crazy. they’re a 3rd place team, a much improved team, but not as good as STL or Chicago.
Yeah..sure it has. The biggest move is Ozuna and card fans think they have the best offense in the league. Get real pal. Your team sucked last year and will again this year. Everyone believes Milwaukee overachieved and that may be true but St. Louis underachieved and to say they have the hope of being better is just as Milwaukee being great next year. You’ll see when St. Louis is barely pushing .500 this year with their horrible lineup
Pham, Dejong, Molina and Ozuna definitely pushes the cardinals way ahead my mistake….jeez Cardinal fans are just as dumb as us cheeseheads I suppose
Why won’t Pham hit .300 again? ok…no way Cain comes close to his numbers because he is old….so cardinals still beat the brewers….lol
you mention Gyrko but I don’t think he will be the regular 3rd baseman…Carp will be at 3rd and Jose Martinez will be at first…he will hit over .300 and have over 25 HR. He carried the Cardinals in the second half and proved how good of a hitter he is when he got regular playing time. I like what the brewers did but their offense is not better than the cardinals
Time will tell. If you had twice your present with you would still be a half wit.
The cardinals fans are saying of Ozuna does wonders and makes them so much better. Then they say the Brewers adding Yelich AND Cain are average pickups.. you’re saying Martinez goes .300 -25HR based off 300 career plate appearances? There are such things as pitchers adjusting to hitters. The guy is 29 and there been nothing even close to suggest he has 25 HR pop or could hit .300 over a full season. Carpenter is a .250 -20-80 guy now. You know who that sounds like? Eric Thames. The only thing Carpenter beat Thames in was K% last year and RBI were 8 difference. Just saying.
That even factors in a 2nd half for Thames that was atrocious.
mlb.com/news/jose-martinez-has-earned-playing-time…
The article explains why I think that about Jose Martinez…..I think the Brewers did great in getting Yelich and Cain…but that doesn’t make the brewers better than the cardinals…Pham is better than Cain…Ozuna is better than Yelich…and Fowler is better than Braun…Martinez is better than Thames…Wong is better than who ever the Brewers 2nd baseman is…Dejong (2nd in ROY) is better than Arcia…Molina is a Hall of Famer.
Cards pitching is better imo
They lack an ace have several number 3s
Same with Chicago
I agree. I like the Cardinals starters better just because of Martinez. I’m not sold on guys like Waino and Weaver this year but then again I’m not sold on Suter, Guerra or Woodruff either.
cardinals haven’t got an ace.
martinez is a head(hair) case.
wainwright is wrong.
weaver is unproven.
wacha, wacha, wacha.
mikolas, who?
anybody else???
the only “W’s” are in their initials.
Reyes will be back this year ! Prob start out in the BP
and then transition to the rotation! Cards rotation is the best in the Central
and then the Cubs
and the Brewers!
Cubs cards brewers in that order
Cubs still have an ace on their staff
You are the worst cards fan.
no, that would be the president of baseball operations, mo
Cardinals still don’t have a closer. That will cost them several games.
Cards are above average everywhere but catcher offensively. You can’t say that about the Brewers who have holes in the middle infield and catcher.
Plus the Cards outfield offense should be stronger.
Jfactor I don’t think Molina is a bad offensive at catcher…he had a .273 batting average…18 home runs… .751 Ops … and I wish I knew what his batting average was with runners in scoring position because the man is clutch…I know those numbers don’t jump out at you but for a catcher that isn’t bad
Brewers have zero weaknesses at SS both on offense and defense. their catching duo last year was one of the best in baseball offensively. 2b was good for large chunk with sogard playing. I think Villar bounces back.
It’s great Brewer fans think that, but in reality he’s unlikely to do so. They’re already internally looking at their 2nd base options. He will be on a very short leash
I agree with the short leash. hopefully this year with him being at spring training the whole time will help. last year he was at the world baseball classic riding the bench. he has the talent
RISP: .315/.338/.476
RISP w/ 2 Outs: .231/.306/.415
Bases Loaded: .412/.389/.706
We don’t need Villar to be lights out. Last spring we needed him to lead off and .350obp. Now we can put him in the bottom of the lineup. If he hit 260 and 320 obp Villar will be just fine.
I am still confused why you continue to say Villar doesn’t bounce back with providing little evidence as to why? Are you basing it on one bad year? If that’s the case you should’ve been hyped about him after 2016. At 26 there is no reason to think he won’t trend back towards his career norms.
Last year, the Brewers had a 93 wRC+, and have added Yelich and Cain, who both had 115 wRC+ seasons last year, with no significant subtractions.
The Cardinals had a 100 wRC+, and have shed two of their weaker hitters in Piscotty and Grichuk for Ozuna and his 142 wRC+
Why should the Brewers offense be better exactly?
Our CF wRC was a hit to the lineup. It will go from the bottom of the lineup to the top of the order. Putting Yelich at Miller Park will increase his stats without a doubt as well as give us a gold glove in LF as opposed to “by committee” when Braun goes down. As much as everyone is saying we need an Ace, I’d be content in saying let’s get a guy that can hit 200 innings to give the bullpen a reprieve. I’d love to see the Brewers, Cubs and Cards all in the playoff in 18.
Anxiously awaiting your comparison on closers.
Did the bullpens change or something? Brewers have a better pen, but that’s relying on guys and their one year booms. That’s like the Cards relying on Leone. Great. I’d say the Brewers pen is better, but that’s worth a few wins, where the lineups are multiple wins a part, and the rotations even more.
I think they make it to the wild card depending on how things shake up in the west and how well the cardinals do
With the addition of a starter on caliber with Darvish or Arrieta they are most certainly a contender in the NL central. If not for a wild card berth.
Still a starter and maybe a reliever away. Maybe something like Santana, Corey Ray, Hiura, and Corbin Burnes, plus a lower minors guy for both Archer and Colome makes them a very good team.
santana, ray, hiura and burnes for archer? yikes. I don’t think Stearns gives THAT up for kershaw.
Archer and Colome
they wouldn’t make that trade. knebel is better than colome. I don’t see them getting rid of pitching prospects because that would shorten their window a few years.
.500 team at best and that’s if they trade or sign for starting pitching
So if they add a starter they are still a .500 team at best? Not sure about that one.
Well, if fangraphs has them at 77 wins now and they add a pitcher, they’ll be a .500 team. I think that’s where he gets it.
Why would people look at data? in their opinion Milwaukee is a playoff team. this is why new buildings and casinos get built in Vegas every year, taking money off of fans that think their teams are better than they actually are.
My data is showing me an 86 in the W column last year for this team. Is that good?
Where did fangraphs project the Brewers before last season? 68 wins, that’s where. Same with the Twins (projection 74) and the Diamondbacks (projection 77).
They were projected for 71 wins, and they won 85 pyth wise.
Those 14 wins came in the form of two starters greatly over performing their periphs and Travis Shaw breaking out. That’s 10 of the 14 wins.
Nelson and Anderson can’t be expected to repeat that, Shaw probably can.
Yeah I don’t understand why people think last year was a fluke. Without Cain, Yelich, and Albers the Brewers won 86 games. So it only makes logical sense to assume they will only be a “.500 team at best” next year despite their significant improvements. I don’t get it. Like with every other team, if things go right the Brewers will be highly competitive next year
Because Nelson and Anderson aren’t going to produce 7.5 WAR between them on a 85 win run differential team.
Even if Yelich and Cain help produce another 5ish wins on offense (and that’s a stretch), they still have to make up for the over performances from a staff/pen that everyone knows can’t repeat.
Absolutely JFactor, as much as they improved in certain areas, they’ll struggle in others. They overachieved last year, they are still a good team but to say Milwaukee is on the same level as STL and Chicago is asinine
their pen struggled big time early in the season and cost close to dozen wins. hader wasn’t there either so bullpen is drastically better to start the season. had knebel and hader been there to start, Brewers would have had at least half a dozen more wins.
Because they were playing an exhausted Cubs team in the first half. Not sure why people forget that the only reason there was a tiny opening for the Brewers last year was the Cubs’ WS hangover. When the Cubs woke up, they left Brewers in the dust.
The Cardinals also under-performed. Cards have an undeniable winning culture also – one of those intangibles that means you can never count them out. I think the Cardinals are going to rise back up this year. They have too much talent not to.
It is nice to see Brewers stepping up and trying to compete. I’m sick and tired of the tanking and the race to the bottom of so many MLB teams. Brewers were fun to watch last year and should be even more fun this year. Yelich is a gem.
But look, we aren’t going to know how good any of these teams are until (1) we see all their off-season moves and (2) they get out on the field and play ball. Can’t know who may get injured, who will rise to/fall below expectations, or how clubhouse culture will help/hurt individual teams.
ws hangover for half a season? what a pathetic excuse. they weren’t good defensively even though they had their entire infield being all stars the year before? obviously cubs fans only vote for legit all stars right?
maybe cubs just over achieved the year before on winning it all. and before you say but they got to three NLCS in a row…nobody cares. that doesn’t matter. the bills got to four Superbowls in a row but nobody cares about that. all the matters is who wins the world series.
With your logic, all teams that don’t win the WS are on even playing ground. So I guess Brewers are on par with Dodgers. LOL
Yeah, three NLCS in a row matters. It says perennial contender, not overachiever. Likewise, since 2000, the Cardinals have only had ONE losing season. They are always contending.
Like I said, it’s good to see Brewers making a push, but some of you more rabid fans are downright comical.. Let’s see how this post-season shakes out and how these teams play… but for now it looks like Brewers are still in “prove it” mode. And why don’t the fans out there get their butts into stadium seats and root for their team?
I voted No, as things stand right now.
If they add an upgrade to the rotation, I might change my vote. But as the rotation stands right now, I don’t see it.
I expect them to be good, but that being said, they have work to do. The rotation is middling at best, I don’t have a ton of faith in their catching situation of Manny Pina, Andrew Susac and Jett Bandy, and while the high leverage relievers are good, the middle relief leaves something to be desired.
If the season started today, I would peg them as a wild card team, say 87-88 wins, and I think that they are considerably better than any team who could potentially compete for a wild card spot Arizona/Colorado/St.Louis/Atlanta/Philly/SF
but they aren’t better than the Cubs yet.
If you look at the Cubs pitching, there really are not many weak links. I would say Eddie Butler and maybe Grimm, but either way they have Maples right there who looks like a potential closer and some solid depth relievers like Dario Alvarez. While there are certainly some weak links in the line-up (namely Russell, JayHey, and Im not huge on Schwarber) the fact that they have Bryant, Rizzo, Contreras, Baez and Zobrist who are established producers, and Happ, Caratini, Almora, Zagunis who all have ML-regular ceilings definitely leaves David Stearns and co with a tough task.
If they want to win the central, they need to upgrade behind the plate and add a top starter to go along with Nelson.
Pina/Vogt combined for 21HR and 83RBI last year. They do need another top level starter and 2B. If they truly are going ‘all in’ another backend reliever would be nice too
Atlanta
and Philly
are not contending !
Nobody thought the Brewers would contend last season, or that the Cubs would have contended in 2015.
I think some people will be surprised. With Ronald Acuna up in Atlanta, and the Carlos Santana signing in Philly, they could each be rather solid 84-87 win teams in ’18
I hope you’re joking…if we are talking bad rotations not one Braves starter has below a 4.00 ERA last year besides McCarthy (3.98). Don’t get me stared on their lineup of only Freeman, Inciarte and possibly Swanson.
If you think Carlos Santana makes up 20 wins you have to be drunk.
I’d rather get Lucroy behind the plate and roll the dice at 2B. Than a pitcher who can give us 200 innings
Zobrist? There’s a reason no one’s username is “Bryzzobrist.” It flows so nicely, but one of the players is bad.
better than the pirates!!!
Any team is better than the pirates except maybe the A’s.
….huh? Marlins? Padres? Reds? Giants? Tigers? White Sox? All do them are worst. Just do better, son.
All of them*
I also need to do better.
Giants aren’t worse than the Pirates. I also wouldn’t be surprised if the Reds finish ahead of them in 2018 either.
The A’s were better than a few teams last year
They must add a quality starting pitcher. There asking Chacin to be as good as 2017 or better. Something about there rotation must change. The only see Anderson and Davies for solid outings. Chacin needs to be consitent. As for their 4th Suter he can be a solid with more polishing. Gallardo can strenthen hes pitches/arm in the bullpen. I think Lynn of Cobb will do just fine for them. Darvish can be something of great but just not sure how the Central teams will pound on him. Hes fastball eill go far in Central parks.
I almost think it’s too early for a poll like this, Brewers still need a starter and I believe they are still working on accomplishing this goal. Until then I can’t say for sure how good I think they are going to be, their offseason isn’t over yet. Without a top starter in that rotation I can’t put them above the cubs yet even though I love my Brewers
Playoff contender. No guarantees but good shot at winning a lot over the next 5+ years
They do need another starter, but hey, who doesn’t? I think they find a way in, but their chances of actually making noise in the postseason will increase greatly with a solid starter acquisition.
If you value FanGraphs’ projection, after the recent trades they come out 18th among the 30 MLB teams, behind the Cards and Cubs, and essentially tied with the Pirates in their division. That makes for a long road to the playoffs.
FanGraph predictions are a joke
Except they are usually really good….
They have Yelich way short, but that’s about it.
yeah because the predictions were so accurate last year for the Yankees and Brewers. predictions are only as accurate as the final standings.
did those predictions say cubs would be piss poor defensively as a team?
How’d that work for the Mets and Giants last year being the wildcards?
Fangraphs projected the Brewers at 68 wins last year. They also were way off on the Twins (74) and Diamondbacks (77). Plus they had the Yankees and Pirates winning the same number of games (83).
Fangraphs is great for analyzing what already happened but I wouldn’t use them as a bible to any sort of predictive relevance.
So they didn’t accurately predict that a guy who stated the year in AAA would be runner up in the MVP and hit 52 HR’s?
It’s important to remember that predictions are done based on run differentials, and if you get it within 5 wins, that’s considered successful projecting.
It also ignores that 70% of teams are accurately projected within that range.
Sure, a handful of teams break out, or deal with incredible injuries, or start off slow and sell off/start off hot and buy. But they are incredibly accurate for what they are.
The Brewers, based on Fangraphs projections, should be assumed for the run differential of a 72-90 to a 82-80 win team right now.
Also, worth mentioning, they are likely not done considering they have payroll room with the need for pitching and an outfield surplus.
Also, I don’t know where you get the Pirates being projected for 83 wins
fangraphs.com/standings/playoff-odds-graphs?lg=NL&…
It was 80, and their run differential was hat of a 74 win team.
Arizona acquired the second half MVP who lit the world on fire.
Being off on a few teams should be expected.
FanGraphs projections have been amazingly accurate. Just because you don’t like the results doesn’t make them a joke. Remember, that they are only projections for the moment they are made. That’s why they’re updated daily. Obviously, many other factors affect the final outcome: injuries, trades, players having unexpected career years, drug use, etc.
They’ll contend for the wildcard
Theres moreore to say of the Brewers this offseason. Marlins have really made the headlines with there blowout sale. Stanton was still cheap for a Mvp
86-90 wins. Knocking on a Wild Card door.
Pirates suck. Reds suck. Cards are OK. So they should fare well in the Division.
A lot of holes and no rotation.
85-87 wins.
Cubs are in the 91-94 range, Cards in the 89-92 range.
I’d say without a few rotation stabilizers or breakouts from Arcia/Villar and shutdown bullpen, they’ll fall short.
Don’t forget how lucky they were last year.
I wonder if you are a cards fan…
arcia did have a breakout year last year in his first full year. he should get better in every facet.
A team with a lot of holes and “no rotation” can win 85 games? Great analysis.
If they have enough top end talent elsewhere, yes. It’s happened historically plenty.
They look like they can produce around 37-40 WAR. That’s a 85-88 win team on paper.
If they get 2 quality starting pitchers by ST I would fear them.
Maybe as one of the wildcards
Middle of the pack. Better than Pirates and Reds…Cubs and Cards are still better.
Brewers need better SP.
IF they add a TOR arm I’d put them in the race for the central. IF they add a TOR, a competent 2B(Neil Walker), and can find someone in middle relief then I could see them in contention for the best record in the league. imo they could be a nice landing spot for a starter on a bounce back,1-year, deal too.
The Brewers playing roster did well last year and the club decided to add some pieces. Show’s some faith by the owners in a stacked central division. Whether they make the playoffs I’m not sure but the chance has been improved and if a few players have career years anything is possible.
They need a steady starter. An Innings eater. No one better than that is Lance Lynn. Lance Lynn, over his career, as of last season had the best winning percentage of any of the Cardinal starters.
I like the way you are thinking Cardinals 17.
The Brewers are likely to add a SP via trade or free agency before the season start. And Nelson is lost for two months, not for the season, so it’s like picking up another quality starter well before the All-Star Break.
Sometimes teams take a step back before a big step forward (Houston in 2016, for example) but I don’t see the Brewers regressing from 86 to 77 wins. The team is already improved over 2017 both offensively and defensively through the additions of Cain and Yelich. The Crew may not win the NL Central but has a legitimate shot at a wild card.
You’re expecting Nelson to come back from surgery and just fall right into what he was last year?
And how is Nelson going to perform, coming back from injury?
You’re dreaming if you expect much out of Nelson. Please do your due diligence on labrum surgery. It’s a brutal injury fir throwing athletes. You do realize that by “throwing” right now it means lobbing the ball from about 20 feet? If he’s ready to compete and at anything close to his prior level by June, it would be a miracle of modern medicine not seen since Drew Brees returned from his completely torn labrum.
his torn labrum wasn’t from any kind of throwing motion. so the injury isn’t the same as other pitchers have had. easier to come back from
We had this same argument on a previous post. His labrum was partially torn in an area that doesn’t receive much stress from pitching. You can’t use other labrum surgery recovery times because this is not the same injury. Yes this is still a significant injury and there are chances he isn’t back to full strength this year, but stop using past assumptions on labrum injuries, as I have not found any other ML level pitchers with this same type of injury.
Predictions are great but baseball is played on the field. Teams outperform expectations all the time, last years Yankees case in point. I say give em a chance to prove themselves they’re sure as hell trying.
Don’t know why this posted twice.
They also under perform. See the giants.
Expectations are high in the Badger State and I am predicting 89 wins for the Brewers. I still think they have a trade in them yet.
If Brewers sign Darvish or Arrieta I think they make the playoffs. Right now I think they and the Cardinals are pretty even.
Fangraphs didn’t believe in the Brewers last year either. Sure Villar is a question, but he’s not the only option at 2B and that’s assuming they don’t still add back Walker. Eric Sogard and his .393 OBP is back as his Hernan Perez and his .789 OPS vs. LHP..
It’s better than 50-50 that they add a starter, but even if they don’t they are not without viable candidates. Brent Suter had a 3.45 ERA in 14 starts. Brandon Woodruff showed promise coming up in a playoff chase. Junior Guerra is a season removed from being their best starter and he’s been pitching well in winter ball. Nelson is ahead of schedule and could be back in June,.
Offensively, Arcia is primed to be a breakout star. He just started realizing some of his potential last year. I think he’s better overall than Russell. He was a top 10 prospect. Shaw is a stud. Their biggest issue on offense was making contact. The additions of Yelich and Cain certainly addressed that.
The veteran bullpen is the best in the division on paper with Knebel, Barnes, Jeffress, Albers, Hader and Logan.
This looks like an 88 win team. If they add a solid starter, it’s a 91-92 win team.
You seem very optimistic.
You are right, but they are still maybes and most of the Starters have no track record. They will score runs.
So fangraphs was right about them last year?
Teams either win with Pitching or lose without it. Can’t have a good team without proper pitching, they’ll have an okay season. They should consider trading Santana to Braves for some Pitching prospects (Matt Wisler, Aaron Blair possibly). It would cost a little more for Braves but this would address Brewers needs. If they want to contend they should still sign Darvish or Arrieta.
“ragtag”
I think they’re a .500 team, but I think they need more starting pitching before passing the cubs. Yelich and Cain should improve the defense, but right now the Cubs have an edge, while Arizona, St. Louis, Colorado, and maybe San Francisco should compete for the WC spots.
Offensively and defensively, yes this is a great team. I just feel like as a staff they need at least 1 pitcher.
If they sign either jake or Yu
4th place baseball is more than offense,there starting pitching is average.
Their best starter, Nelson, may not be back until mid season and from a shoulder injury. Their rotation is pedestrian at best. If they had added some decent starters and had a healthy Nelson they probably could.
they had one of the top rotations in baseball. even with nelson out and chacin in it won’t drop of a cliff. remember they had crappy pitching in April.
For your next article could you please discuss the Cardinals apparent strength? Trying not to be snarky but I keep hearing how improved and competitive they are. I must be missing something. Yes, they added Ozuna but their pen and rotation are arguably worse than a 2017 3rd place team.
I expect some regression from last year but a good chunk of that is offset by the upgrades. I say they fall just short after a good year 84-78!
I’m a big Yelich fan, but he’s a very very good player, not a great one. It’s not hard to imagine that Brinson is putting up similar numbers by the All Star game.
I like Cain, but a 5 year deal for a 32 year old is worrisome. If he starts slow and takes a while to adjust to a new league that eats into the front end of that deal and age/regression will eat into the back end. This could join the list of untradeable contracts very soon.
They need to add a pitcher. I think they will, but if they don’t…then they are the 2015 White Sox. Offseason champs.
If they do get a solid SP, I’d like their odds to compete in the NL Central. The Cubs have holes and the Cards are good, not great team.
Jake Arrieta, Brewers close to deal
Highly doubt that.
Theyre still 3 or 4 years away. They have no ace. Their rotation had a good year. They won’t repeat.
As things stand right now? No, the Brewers are not a playoff team. They don’t have the pitching.
yep. they only had one of the best pitching staffs in baseball last year but I’m sure you’d still say they were awful.
9th best last year, and lost their top starter, so they seem like middle of the pack to me.
take out the bad pitching in April with most of those guys gone or out of the rotation and they could easily be top 10.
Take out the bad pitching from any team and they would be top 10, that’s not reasonable. And I just don’t see a good rotation, it just isn’t there on paper.
no I’m saying they already took out the bad pitching from early last season. release bad relievers. knebel wasn’t officially the closer til 1.5 months into the season. Josh hader didn’t debut til midnight June. you really think that if those to guys had the same roles the entire season they wouldn’t have had more wins or better team era? if they had been they would have won the division pretty easily.
5th best ERA in the NL last yer. Ahead of the Cards.
They had a 4.00 ERA, Cards had a 4.01.
Meanwhile, the Brewers has a 4.24 FIP, to the Cards 4.09 (and Cubs 4.20)
This is a discussion about the upcoming season. Signs wouldn’t point to the Brewers having a better ERA or wRC+ than the Cards or Brewers in 2018.
Chase anderson is barely #5 guy. Davies is the Same. The other 3 pitchers are up in the air .They had maybe the 20th best rotations in baseball.
team era was 4.00 good for #9. all of the starters had under 4 that finished the season. Peralta, Garza and Guerra inflated that higher. Peralta and Garza are gone who had combined records of 11-15 and eras of 7.85 for Peralta and 4.94 for Garza. but yeah their rotation won’t be any better.
the Brewers aren’t going to have a top 10 rotation unless they sign someone, I can almost guarantee that.
again based in what? Peralta and Garza are both gone who were their worst starters last year. that already makes them a better rotation.
They lost Nelson for at least a couple months, who was their best pitcher, and the guys they got to fill in the back end, like Gallardo, can’t be counted on to perform like a top 10 rotation.
Gallardo isn’t set for the rotation. again to my previous statement, Peralta and Garza out of the equation Brewers would have had a better rotation than the Cubs statistically rather easy.
Whether Gallardo makes the rotation or not, I don’t see a top 10 rotation.
They had a 4.24 FIP (4.30 rotation), which was 8th in the NL alone, and that was anchored by Nelson and Anderson.
One of those guys is hurt, the other had the same FIP as the Cards 5th starter.
And they haven’t made any moves to improve the rotation, unless you expect the Gallardo of 5 years ago.
Considering someone has to pitch in place of them.
It’s not addition by subtraction. Someone else will get those innings. And the current replacements don’t look any better.
The offense is formidable. But the starters are not good. Jimmy Nelson will be sorely missed, and even with him last year they needed another starter. This is still a 3rd place team, unless they add two more contributing starters. They need one SP1 or SP2, and one SP3 or SP4. The latter might come from within, so if they’re truly in it to win, they nerd Darvish, Cobb or some other productive starter. Otherwise, they’ll be settling for 3rd in the division and no playoffs again.
Not until they add to the rotation and pen. They are built a lot like the 2017 Marlins, and we saw how that went. The Brewers had a lot go right last year. Also, several other contenders (Giants, Mets, Cardinals) had a lot go wrong.
Cubs were horrible for the first half and still won the division by 6.
Praise the almighty cubs, they need another 100 year drought for things to get back to normal
they wouldn’t have won by six if knebel and hader were there all season. if they were Brewers could have easily won the division by six. more so had Garza and Peralta been gone from the start
Haha silly Brewers fans… your team played out of its mind last year. Everything that could have gone right , did. Case in point is Thames. Compare his first half with his second half.
I don’t believe Thames is any good, and I am certain this team doesn’t even reach 81 wins. But hey, last year was fun for y’all
You’re certain! Hey guys Big Poison can see the future! Dude I need you on call for sporting bets I make. Where will Bitcoin be in 10 years? I have so much to ask you!!
I wonder why St. Louis is not in on Arrieta or Darvish. They have the money as they were going to pay Stanton. I wonder if they are waiting to go after Machado next offseason.
Because they have 7 starters they want to give innings to and avoid long term, heavy declining deals where possible.
The Brewers look a lot like the Mariners in that they have a solid team on the field and at the plate, but a questionable rotation. We don’t know how well Nelson will produce when he returns, or how much time it will take to get back on track. Chacin was terrible outside of Petco last season and Gallardo had a knack for walking a couple before giving up an extra base hit last season with the Mariners. He didn’t fare much better out of the bullpen, either. Both teams have durability and production concerns with their starting pitching. But Milwaukee should have a legitimate shot at the postseason.
The Cardinals have a solid outfield as well, but I don’t see their offense as threatening as Milwaukee’s and their bullpen still needs a closer. Will Reyes get that opportunity, or will he be needed to replace Mikolas? Lot of likable, young starters in St. Louis. The Cardinals and Brewers should be fun to watch square off.
I’m a Cub fan and think the Brewers have definitely improved their roster from a team that was in it almost to the very end last season. I don’t see how anyone can doubt, barring injuries, that these guys will contend this year.
The Brewers making the playoff depends on a number of factors, but here’s the bit thing to me:
If the Brewers’ youngsters continue to improve, and the Cubs have another lackluster start to the season as they did in 2017, the Brewers probably take the division this time.
That said, injuries, regression, etc. could all be major factors here, and we just don’t know for sure.
There’s too many IFs. If both Lorenzo Cain and Christian Yelich play at superstar levels. If Travis Shaw, Domingo Santana and Kory Knebel had break out seasons vs one and done seasons. If Orlando Arcia and Josh Hader don’t suffer sophomore slumps. If Ryan Braun and Jonathan Villar play closer to their peaks. If Eric Thames maintains his first third season domination. Finally, If all their pitchers have breakout seasons and improve significantly,
Yes, they are a playoff team.
Meh. Could say similar things about the Cubs:
IF they do not play a lackluster first-half again,
IF Addisson Russell, Kyle Schwarber and Jason Heyward actually hit the ball
IF they can find an adequate replacement for closer Wade Davis
IF they can adequately replace Jake Arrietta
Yea, the Cubs just have too many iffs right? I think, rather, that the Brewers contended for the division title LAST year, and have only improved their team this off-season.
No one else in the NL improved, just Milwaukee, ask the Brewer fans. They only finished one game out of the wild card and we’re going to completely ignore the projections of 77 wins.
Brewers could easily compete for a WC spot, but if they want to go for the division, they need to add some pitching.
i can’t wait until Milwaukee signs a 32 year old declining pitcher. It will be icing on the cake
Sounds like the cubs and darvish, it would be icing on the cake for Brewers fans!!
I’m gonna say no until they add a legitimate starter or two. I do think they’ll be in the mix for the second wild card though.
If the Brewers decide that pitching is what they need, the Braves could send their No.1 and No.2 starters and closer for a group of prospects. The Braves would send Julio Teheran, Mike Foltynewicz and Arodys Vizcaino for nine of the Brewers top ten prospects (Ray, Ortiz, Woodruff, Hiura, Burnes, Lutz, Dubon, Erceg, Peralta, Phillips) with the Brewers keeping whichever one they want.
Are you~ 13?
Geez that’s a lot. Considering my username, I hate this on both sides. Giving up so much potential for what’s at this point innings eaters from a team that needs them. Both sides say no in a heartbeat.
Great pickups in Yelich and Cain! No doubt. As a Cubs fan, I remember playing the Brewers several times last year and the outfield was a Huge Plus. Santana out of nowhere, Braun doing Braun things, Broxton grew up before our eyes, Aguilar played well and even Thames made contributions while playing in the grass when he wasn’t at first. Just my point of view: Your pitching needed addressing, not your outfield. Now you have more outfielders than you know what to do with. So many that a ridiculous statement came out that Braun would not only consider playing first but he would start fielding balls at 2nd base???? Has the world forgotten how horrible he was historically when he wasn’t out in the grass? My point is, the Brewers made some exciting moves, and they are to be applauded for dramatically increasing the talent level of the team, but they simply didn’t fix the glaring holes they had going into the offseason. If I want to make tacos, and I already have Carne Asada, I don’t go and buy more meat, I probably need to go get some shells and cheese. Second base is unsettled and the pitching seemed to me to be an area of improvement at the top of the rotation(Not Chacin, even though that works out fine if you get yourself some Jake, Yu, or one of Lynn or Cobb). The Brewers have all the meat, but they will be serving meat in a plate(Not Tacos) with no cheese or shells unless they acquire a pitcher and/or 2nd baseman with their outfield depth. Awesome talent upgrades so far for the Brewers though! I was excited to see them gather some undisputed talent, it just seems as though they missed their targets in repairing the holes that were obvious to even outsiders. Go Brewers! Bring more talent to the NL Central! But put it where it needs to go in order to get to the next level.
I agree with your point, but to use your metaphor, if someone said I’ll trade you 5 yrs worth of meat for stock, and the only thing edible the store was selling was meat… what would you do? You buy the meat and hope you can sell some of your excess for the other things you need. Who knows if cobb, arrieta or darvish want to go to milwaukee. Maybe by making moves they might look like a more appetizing place to be. I agree the Brewers are a #1/2 starter from being a serious threat to the cubs, but you have to play the hand you’ve been dealt.
Augold5, I totally agree. That was my point. I was not criticizing the buys of Yelich or Cain. I was actually applauding them. They vastly improved their talent base, I would not have sacrificed either one of the players they acquired even if Jake or Yu took $50MM over 5 years each. Just stressing the point that they improved, but they didn’t fix the holes. You can have all the meat in the Galaxy, but you still need shells and cheese to make tacos. I’d still buy the meat they bought, but the tacos are still not complete if you don’t get those two holes filled. They had plenty meat and got more, as your wife says, don’t forget the shells honey.
FYI: Vegas odds aren’t a true reflection of how the oddsmakers view the chances of each team because they often need to make the odds more attractive to fans of teams that don’t have lots of fan support. But following the recent trade improvements, the odds for the Brewers to win the World Series dropped from 33:1 to 28:1, but still behind the Cubs and Cards.
I’m amazed by these comments. Brewers fans think the Brewers seem to have a good shot at contending. Cubs fans KNOW that they have no shot in contending. They’re projected to win what 77? What if the zombie apocalypse comes in April and they win only 5 games? Where are your projections now?
The offense should hold up its end. Give them a good pitcher and a solid bullpen piece and they are legitimate contenders.
I agree. Landing a legit SP and proven bullpen pieces are essential. I don’t think anyone really wants to imagine Gallardo or Chacin taking the ball in a pivotal late season or playoff game. They’re depth pieces. I’m confident that once is all said and done in this offseason MIL will have one of Arrieta, Darvish, Cobb, or Lynn as well as one of Duffy, Salazar, or Odorizzi. You can never have too much pitching.
Those trades make sense, don’t think they’ll both sign Darvish and trade for Duffy. I think they trade for say, Duffy and Merrifield, maybe get another reliever, and call it a day and run “bullpen days” like they did last year where the game is just a gauntlet of Gallorado, Jeffress, Hader, Logan, Guerra, Knebel in any order. They did that last year to moderate success and could certainly work till Nelson comes back in early June.
They will finish second again but I do think they can get the Wild card. The cubs are still the favorite. Several cubs had a down year and they still go to the NLCS.
Yelich is good, real good, but we are acting like he’s the missing piece to all the problems. Him and Cain are great upgrades, but still need pitching.
They remind me of a older 2015-2026 Marlins, great offense bad pitching.
How good are the Brewers? Depends on how drunk I am.
Brew Crew will remain better than now-standpatting Cardinals, sadly. I think 77 wins is an underprojection, even given the holes in the lineup.
socraticgadfly.blogspot.com/2018/01/cardinals-cric…
Can’t believe all the Brewer online support here. Haven’t seen many fans since the 08′ season. Shocked you’re all hyped about a few offensive moves with no answer to the glaring pitching problems. All signs point towards regression, numbers don’t lie. Unless you solidify the starting rotation, and stop imagining Jimmy Nelson coming back and not missing a beat, you’re not going to see much movement in terms of more wins in that win column.
Now not to say this team can’t make some noise, they just are very likely not going to run away with the very competitive NL Central. I would be shocked if they came as close as they did last year. But it is possible they can keep it close.
Cubs fan here. Here’s my take… and as always, assuming no major injuries on either side and players hit their respective target performances:
(1) If the Brewers and Cubs both stand pat right now (neither get Darvish or Arrietta or Cobb or Lynn) it will be a battle for the NL Central. The loser will be one of the Wild Card teams.
(2) If both get a pitcher, same.
(3) If the Brewers get a starter and the Cubs don’t, Brewers take the Central.
(4) If the Cubs get a starter and the Brewers don’t, Cubs take the Central.
It’s going to come down to pitching. And I think the pitcher that’s going to matter (for either) is Arrieta, not Darvish. And if not Arrieta, then Lynn. Those are the two that I think offer the most upside and the most pitchability for the cost.
Odd to have the Cardinals omitted from this assessment
Wild Card contenders.. a lot would have to go there way for them to pass the Cubies.. especially since Chicago is most likely to end up with Darvish
The only concern is rotation. Getting an ace would solidify the team. Darvish or Arrenta would be perfect.
Arrieta is far from an Ace, 2015 isn’t going to magically re-appear. Signing Arrieta will bring in a solid number 3 with a ceiling of number 2, at an astronomical cost.
Do the moves guarantee a playoff spot? No. But the same can be said for ANY teams moves.
Are the Brewers a contender? Of course, There were only 7 teams that were above .500 in the NL last season, and none of the ones that didn’t have improved themselves enough to be considered contenders. Miami and Pittsburgh are worse, San Diego has done nothing. Cincinnati and Philadelphia are still several seasons away. The Mets and Giants need to have no injuries to contend. Atlanta could surprise, but it still seems they’re a year away.
The National League will be just like last year. Washington runs away with the East. Los Angeles, Arizona and Colorado will contend in the West and Chicago, St Louis and Milwaukee will contend in the Central. And two of those seven teams won’t make the playoffs. But again, those will likely be the only teams to finish above .500.