The Royals have officially struck a deal with free agent first baseman Lucas Duda, as Robert Murray of Fan Rag first reported (via Twitter). The deal promises the Beverly Hill Sports Council client $3.5MM, per Fan Rag’s Jon Heyman (Twitter links).
Rather achievable incentives can also boost that salary. Per MLB.com’s Jeffrey Flanagan, Duda will receive $100K upon reaching 300 plate appearances and can take down another $100K with every twenty-five trips to the dish thereafter, topping out at 600 plate appearances and a total potential $1.3MM in additional earnings.
It seems, then, that the veteran Duda will function as the replacement for the departing Eric Hosmer. The 32-year-old Duda is significantly older, and wasn’t as productive as Hosmer in 2017, but has actually been a better offensive performer over the two players’ respective careers.
Depending upon how one slices the numbers, it’s possible to paint a more pessimistic or optimistic picture of Duda’s track record and near-future outlook. He struggled through an injury-filled 2016 season and fell off down the stretch last year after a mid-season trade. On the other hand, he hit quite well at the outset of the 2017 campaign and slashed a robust .249/.350/.483 over the 2014 and 2015 seasons.
Despite a less-than-exciting finish to the season after a mid-2017 deal from the Mets to the Rays, Duda still ended with a well-above-average .217/.322/.496 overall output with thirty home runs. That came in spite of posting only a .238 batting average on balls in play.
Of course, Duda also reverted to struggling badly against left-handed pitching after having improved in that area in 2015. For his career, Duda carries an 84 wRC+ when hitting without the platoon advantage. Clearly, then, it’d be preferable for K.C. to give him a rest against southpaws.
Despite the caveats, it’s a bargain rate for a player who has been quite productive at the plate while receiving approximately average grades for his glovework at first. Duda may not be an adequate replacement for Hosmer in the leadership or baserunning departments, but it wouldn’t be surprising at all to see him out-hit the man he’ll replace.
they sign duda but not LoMo?
I think that’s more or less the long & short of it.
It was probably just a matter of Duda offering his services for less money and fewer years.
Uhh probably because Morrison would rather play for a team that’s trying to compete. It takes two sides to make a deal
@MLB2018PH Lomo is from KC and stated from the onset of free agency he wanted to play here
wanting to and agreeing to a contract are different things.
Exactly. Some players will even take less money to play for contenders.
was he going to do it for the amount in this deal?
The Royals have a kid in O’Hearn that just may be ready to take over the job at 1B in KC. Duda may be an insurance policy and won’t cost as much to cut if the kid is ready to go. O’Hearn has 400 ABs at AAA so he can start the year in Omaha and if he’s hot and Duda is not, make the move in May or June when Duda strains a ligament in his sinus.
i like o’hearn
Fun to watch, and a truly nice guy (had the pleasure of meeting him last season with Omaha)
O’Hearn will likely be athe least a fan fav regardless of how well his numbers eventually look in the majors
Duda’s better than Morrison, career-wise. Unless you take last year as gospel, he’s the better player (also better defensively).
I’ve never watched Duda regularly play defense. I have watched LoMo play 1B for the M’s for a season and his range in foul territory and his ability to track down pop ups impressed me.
Here’s a great article on a particular HR hit by a red-hot Duda on a ball thrown at his hands: fangraphs.com/blogs/lucas-dudas-turn-with-the-anom…
I still can’t believe it happened.
When looking at LoMo, people are really doing their expectations a disservice in ignoring the 1st and 2nd half splits.
The first half none of the pitches had caught on to the fact he had changed his approach at the plate – and he thrived, putting up an OPS over 950. In the second half some pitchers started adjusting tho, and his numbers began to tank.
Now everyone knows and he will be pitched dramatically different in 2018. That doesn’t mean he will be back to how consistently bad he hit from 2012-2016, but he might be pretty close to it
That was my question, why not sign a local KC boy like Morrison to play first. Is Duda that much better?
Kinda makes you shake your head don’t it?
no
He’s bad
30 Homers in 491 ABs with decent OPB is bad?
217. BA it’s terrible af idc what you say
“217. BA it’s terrible af idc what you say”
So hes only able to get on base and around the bases at a very good rate, but doesn’t do it by hitting a ton of singles so hes terrible?
So ignorant
And average defense too. Duda is massively underrated.
He’s not bad or anything but you consider the skill against the context of the spot in the lineup that he occupies.
His skills and production arent hard to find in first basemen / dh’s. If he could also play league-average defense at 2nd and 3rd he’d be worth another million or two no problem.
As I was surprised to find out while getting the numbers for my post below:
Last 5 seasons:
.250/.366/.447, 354 wOBA, 123 wRC+
.236/.340/.469, 348 wOBA, 124 wRC+
The second is Duda, the first one is Carlos Santana
Now granted there is a sizeable PA difference, with Santana at 3323 and Duda at 2197* – but that’s still 2000+ PA of near identical to Santana production Duda has put up
(Should be noted that Santana had the 9th most PA in the game over those 5 seasons too, so the difference looks worse than it even is. Duda had the 134th most PA in the game over the 5 year period, out of only 162 to top 2000)
I would also mention that even with the PA difference, Santana had 123 hr and Duda had 109. Nice comparison.
Batting average lol
If healthy he can rake, but that’s a big if. Good signing considering the price. He hits the ball as hard as anyone.
Hosmer hadn’t even been able to match Dudas numbers career wise? Good luck SD. Duda duda
What a sad state of affairs in KC.
Let’s hope he never has to throw home.
Hahahaha, isn’t great. Another Hosmer to Duda connection
Ouch
The total slash line for all of MLB last season was .255/.324/.426. Total 1B splits were .265/.346/.487. So how is .217/.322/.496 “well-above-average”?
A guess? He means OPS for all of MLB, not just 1B.
He’s played his whole career in hitter-unfriendly home parks. Which, as it turns out, makes a big difference! (You really should check into the concept of “park effects” when you get a chance.) Duda’s career wRC+ is 121, which puts him in the company of people like Pete Rose, Mark Grace, and Ryan Howard (the good version). It’s about the same as $60m man Carlos Santana, and far better than Eric Hosmer and Logan Morrison, This is a steal.
I’m not arguing that it was a bad deal. I’m not arguing wRC+, OPS+, WAR, park factors, park adjusted metrics, etc. The direct quote from the author is “Duda still ended with a well-above-average .217/.322/.496 overall output.” There are arguments you can make for or against Duda, but calling that slash line well-above-average is a stretch at best.
Yes, it IS well above average! That’s the whole point. That line came with the NYM and Tampa. It comes out to a 113 wRC+, which is indeed 13% above average.
I guess we have different definitions of well-above-average then. As a 1B that wRC+ would only put him at #20 among qualified 1B. 11 1B were over 130 last season. At an offensively inflated position 113 is not super significant. And again, the writer’s argument was NOT that he put up a well-above-average wRC+ (which I would still argue is above, but not well above), it was purely on his slash line which was not well above average.
then he should have said that and not left it at kust the slash line
Citi Field has not been “hitter-unfriendly” the past several years.
“slash line for all of MLB last season was .255/.324/.426. … So how is .217/.322/.496 “well-above-average”?”
Kind of answered your own question there
Afterall, a .818 OPS is “well-above” .750, is it not?
.068?? Eh, Not sure I’d really classify that as well above…
Come on. That’s the difference between Carlos Santana and Hanley/Yadi last year
Last 5 seasons:
.272/.374/.501/.875 – Rizzo
.290/.374/.501/.875 – Arenado
.291/.383/.490/.873 – McCutchen
.308/.364/.508/.871 – Blackmin
.307/.366/.499/.865 – Beltre
.236/.340/.469/.809 – Duda
So you would not consider Rizzo, Arenado, McCutchen, Blackmon or Beltre to be “well above” Duda since they only had an OPS of +.065 or less?
Wow the irony of replacing Hosmer with Duda, the very person who made the errant throw in game 5
The irony of not using irony the correct way.
Maybe MORONIC !
What is ironic about that?
That’ll be a steal. he’ll put up 30hr and .840 OPS. Too bad the mets were too cheap to cut AGon (minimum) for Duda.
I’m with you. Mets should have brought him back. Smith is not ready and Gonzalez is a question mark health wise. Good for Royals though
Smith may never be ready. They should have moved him 1+ yrs ago. If you look at Duda’s first 4-5 years compared to Chris Davis they are nearly identical. The O’s paid 100m+ for him, while KC paid $3.5m for Duda. A steal of notable proportion. Duda is also an under-rated defender. Being at 1B w. the hacks and statues the Mets have used for the past 4+ years shouldn’t be ignored. I’ve watched all but a handful of Met games in that span and he regularly is bailing out his infielders.
1. Royals owed Duda a favor helping them win world series.
2. Fend off the MLBPA that they spending a little money.
3. Insurance for Ohearn who will likely become 1st baseman later this year or next.
1. no
2. no
3. regained your sanity
I would rather bring Moustakas back.
Duda is a nice one year pick up to hold first base for a full year or half year for a prospect not exciting but a good move well maybe an ok move lol
$3.5m for Duda is a solid move, but personally, I would have waited a few weeks until Jesus Aguilar, Jefry Marte, Renato Nunez and/or Ji-Man Choi became available on waivers.
Camptown Royals fans sing dis song, Duda! Duda!
Beat me to it haha
Duda plays 130 games and is ice cold for 90-100 of them and totally on fire for 30-40. Streakiest player ever and almost ends up with a back injury at the worst time. Usually when he’s hot.
Always
This exact injury really sapped Ken Griffey Jr.
Stupid phone!
He is a very good bat.
GREAT signing for the price!
Avoid playing him against tough lefties.
ironically we signed Duda, he threw the ball home when Hosmer scored the winning run in world series
Met fan here. Duds is a good guy and incredibly streaky. If healthy he’ll put up good numbers by the end of the season. Not the batting average but the slugging will be good and he draws some walks to help out the onbase. Not a lot of range in the field but good hands. Base running is another story. You think it’s the stow motion repiay but it’s really not.
Royals begin their long journey round and round down the toilet bowl.
‘Duda still ended with a well-above-average .217/.322/.496’….wth