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Market Notes: Youth, Holland, Werth, Rays, D-backs

By Kyle Downing | March 24, 2018 at 5:28pm CDT

The fans are more excited about youth than ever before, writes Grant Brisbee of SB Nation. That’s good news for the owners, as they’re getting rich off the youth movement flooding this era of baseball. Young players are cheap, and Brisbee points out why that matters in an example featuring the Astros’ World Series lineup. Their first five hitters were George Springer, Carlos Correa, Jose Altuve, Alex Bregman and Yuli Gurriel; the latter made about $5MM more in 2017 than the first four combined. Having elite young talent under control on relatively cheap salaries allows teams the financial flexibility to fill a few holes en route to a championship-caliber roster. As Brisbee notes, player salaries are determined more by circumstance than by talent nowadays, describing this fact as “the secret of baseball, the only part of Moneyball that really matters.” After seeing proof of concept from the Cubs and Astros in recent years, fans are actually getting excited about rebuilds and trades for prospects, which means ownership has less of a reason to spend money on players that Brisbee describes as “just a guy” types. This quote from his piece describes it best: “Prospects aren’t just future major leaguers; they’re memorable seasons and postseason runs that haven’t happened yet.”

A few more market-related items…

  • Jim Bowden of The Athletic confirms in a tweet that the Braves, Diamondbacks and Cardinals have all checked in on free agent reliever Greg Holland. However, none of them feel as though they can be competitive financially based on the right-hander’s current asking price. Bowden suggests that Holland should take the best offer on the table. With less than a week left until opening day, it’s hard to argue that point.
  • Jayson Werth is still looking to continue his career, as he tells Ken Rosenthal of The Athletic. The 38-year-old is currently working out and waiting for someone to give him an opportunity. He’s coming off a season in which he hit just .226/.322/.393 and missed nearly three months due to a toe injury, though he still managed double-digit homers in half a season’s worth of plate appearances. The fact that his walk rate has been above 10% in every season of his career could also make him worth a look.
  • Werth could be a good fit in theory for the Rays. The club is still on the lookout for a right-handed hitter who can play the outfield, according Marc Topkin of the Tampa Bay Times. Jose Bautista and Melky Cabrera represent the top remaining options on the free agent market. Players like Domingo Santana and Hunter Renfroe could potentially be had in a trade, though neither of them would come cheap.
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Arizona Diamondbacks Atlanta Braves St. Louis Cardinals Tampa Bay Rays Greg Holland Jayson Werth

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41 Comments

  1. TradeAcuna

    7 years ago

    “Braves”

    Funny joke that they are trying to improve the team.

    Reply
    • RunDMC

      7 years ago

      Why put Braves in quotations?

      Not sure why it’s a joke, they’ll be better than last year, have had one of the best rotation ERAs of spring training (FWIW) and have a lot of guys on the cusp. Give them 2 weeks and they’ll have a major upgrade in LF. Everyone has the same record right now and other teams have their stars continue to fall leaving opportunities. Not saying they’ll be a contender, but they sure won’t be a “joke”.

      2
      Reply
      • TradeAcuna

        7 years ago

        So you are satisfied with 76 wins instead of 72?

        Just as they found an excuse to sit back and go the cheapest route this year, they will do the same next year.

        Expect something like, “We don’t feel comfortable signing one player to a major contract. Instead we will allocate our spending throughout multiple positions.”

        In other words, don’t expect guys like Machado.

        Also I’m still waiting for people’s beloved Coppy signing/trade/pick to actually make an impact on the future. No Newcomb and Folty have done nothing to prove they are impact pitchers. Honestly I’m only optimistic about Soroka, as I always felt he will be better than Allard ever since they drafted them.

        The Braves are still leaning on Wren’s guy aka Freeman, Albies, and eventually Acuna to give the fans hope for the future. While Coppy’s guys have amounted to nothing so far. Next year we will hear the same old song about how their prospects need more seasoning or some other excuse to not spend big for 2019.

        Reply
        • inkstainedscribe

          7 years ago

          I suppose you’ve been living under a rock since September and didn’t hear about Coppy and Hart and why they’re not with the team any more? If the payroll on opening day 2019 is below $90 million, then yeah, you’ll have a point. Anyone who thought that the Braves would overspend on free agents after the defenestration the system took this past offseason, as was said, doesn’t know baseball.

          2
          Reply
        • TradeAcuna

          7 years ago

          No, no one said to overspend especially due to the weak market this year. However I’m still bitter about them not getting Yelich. Instead they did nothing, still hoping the prospects prosper, and we as fans have another year of bad baseball until the inevitable continuation of the rebuild next year due to one problem or another. Until they prove otherwise, no way do i expect the braves to pull off a major signing with their ownership.

          Reply
        • southi

          7 years ago

          LOL, if you don’t like the Braves direction then feel free NOT to watch, I’ll assure you that you won’t be missed. Personally I’m very excited for the future of the team. Perhaps you actually have been living under a rock.

          1
          Reply
        • Eddy Treadway

          7 years ago

          I wanted Yelich as bad as any Braves fan, but the realization that in the division every talk starts with them demanding Acuna in a trade…and I’m very thankful they didn’t pull the trigger. Nobody in this year’s free agent class would have been worth signing to anything past a one year deal. Anthopolous is way too smart to move prospects before getting eyes on, so a big trade would be out of question until at least the trade deadline. The moves that have been made have been to set up the future, and I very excited to what the future holds

          3
          Reply
        • TradeAcuna

          7 years ago

          The Braves could have gotten Yelich without trading Acuna but they didn’t. I’m not going to judge AA yet because i do agree with his passive approach for this year for the most part, but the guy traded for Dickey.

          Reply
        • casmith12

          7 years ago

          You’re also choosing to forget that he also traded for Donaldson, and hardly gave up anyone of value…

          1
          Reply
        • RunDMC

          7 years ago

          That’s pure speculation because when you consider they landed MIL’s top OF Brinson in the deal, they weren’t going to settle on anything but a team’s top OF prospect, even if he was priced out of their reach.

          1
          Reply
        • petfoodfella

          7 years ago

          WTF would they put Yelich? Just bc some dumbass on a message boards wants a trade, doesn’t mean it’s a smart trade.

          Reply
    • tecjug

      7 years ago

      Anyone who doesn’t think the Braves are improving doesn’t know baseball.

      5
      Reply
      • DS1

        7 years ago

        Amen

        Reply
      • NL_East_Rivalry

        7 years ago

        He should root for the Phillies this year

        Reply
        • TradeAcuna

          7 years ago

          why the Phillies? Because they are not afraid to spend money?

          Reply
        • casmith12

          7 years ago

          I’m sure I can speak for most informed Braves fans that I’d rather the Braves not spend money like the Phillies in a bad free agent class. The payroll is nearly the same as last season for the Braves, and it’s a safe bet they’ll be spending a good chunk of change next season on either a big name FA or a blockbuster trade

          2
          Reply
        • petfoodfella

          7 years ago

          You should be a Rangers or an Angles fan. They throw money away and still suck.

          Reply
  2. sidewinder11

    7 years ago

    DBacks adding Holland would be big. Hirano, Boxberger, Bradley and Holland makes a pretty darn good back end

    Reply
  3. xabial

    7 years ago

    Can someone tell me what Holland’s “asking price” is, less than 1 week, before the regular season?

    Or Take a wild guess what Holland ultimately signs for?

    Greg Holland rejected a $15 million player option, then rejected a one-year $17.4 million QO, and finally rejected 3/52, Rockies gave Wade Davis.

    Holland crumbled in 2nd half (6.38 ERA) and is 32 years old.

    Boras, you on these boards? What were you thinking,

    6
    Reply
    • majorflaw

      7 years ago

      Boras, you on these boards? What were you thinking, . . .”

      He was probably thinking that he had to follow his client’s instructions even if he disagreed. I’m surprised at you, xabial. You know better than to demonize the agent for a player’s decisions by now. Must be an off day.

      Reply
      • xabial

        7 years ago

        That’s because I would have took the QO. I pointed out Holland’s “major flaws” (pun intended 😉 )

        Despite leading NL with 41 Saves, Boras client collapsed during 2nd half (6.38 ERA), and up there in age (32) Playing probably, the most volatile position in MLB (RP)

        Good news for Holland is, Cobb, JDM, and Hosmer notwithstanding, Seems Reliever is the one position, still pays pretty penny this off-season, but Greg Holland is not without his flaws.. Boras should’ve seen that and advised his client to accept 3/52 (If tendered to him by Rockies first, before signing Wade, as widely reported)

        4
        Reply
        • Pablo

          7 years ago

          As a twins fan I would like to point out the most volatile RP and that’s Fernando Rodney. A player going into his age 40 season. I watched him a few times in Tampa and it’s basically like flipping a coin in the ninth inning.

          1
          Reply
      • xabial

        7 years ago

        Boras is good at what he does… hence the hate, but I’m interested to see how the Holland situation plays out.

        Nobody knows who declined the previous offer(s) but
        either way, it doesn’t reflect well on player or agent, if he ultimately signs, for less than offered.

        I’m not demonizing Boras.. I just think he had more to do with Holland rejecting the contract offers than Holland himself. I have no evidence, to back up my claim other than agent advises player.

        3
        Reply
        • majorflaw

          7 years ago

          “Boras is good at what he does… hence the hate.”

          I still don’t get it. Why should baseball fans care that, for example, the Red Sox owner was able to sign JDM for ~$100M less than his agent’s ask? The bite out of the baseball fan’s pocket was taken some time ago, owners and players are just arguing over the size of their respective slices of the pie. Why would you care whether your money were ultimately “kept” by owner rather than player?

          “ . . . it doesn’t reflect well on player or agent, if he ultimately signs, for less than offered.”

          Why—it would just mean that player and/or agent mistimed or misread the market. Players, agents and teams regularly make business decisions which include estimates of what future markets will bear. A couple of bad calls won’t kill you. If anything, if you aren’t overreaching every now and then you probably aren’t asking enough.

          “I have no evidence to back up my claim other than agent advises player.”

          I think my friend the chain smoker has a bad doctor for the very same reason.

          “I pointed out Holland’s major flaw (pun intended)”

          No worries, x. I can still distinguish between “friendlies” and um, others. But a stylistic point. Too, many, commas. They are not used as pauses are when speaking. Think ‘subordinate clause or not’ and when in doubt leave it out.

          1
          Reply
  4. mike156

    7 years ago

    While I don’t think anyone could predict how the free agent market ultimately rolled out, you do wonder what Boras and Holland are waiting for.. I suspect it’s a season-ending injury to a closer currently on a contending team–but most contending teams have multiple closing options, and/or don’t want to get closer to the CBT (or over it) just to bring in a guy who wasn’t that terrific in the last couple of months of the season. I get wanting every dollar–but don’t be shocked if he doesn’t sign until midseason, after the pick goes away, and even then, whatever he can get on a one year contract. One of the off-seasons odder choices., Maybe he thought that with Davis gone, there would be scarcity.

    5
    Reply
  5. Painful itch

    7 years ago

    Make it incentive based. $500k per save,-$500k per blow save. Put on the pressure. If totally blows, they make money for their lost pick. Lol

    Reply
  6. Wainofan

    7 years ago

    Cards should offer 15/1 or 25/2, anyone beats that then let them have him. Give him deadline to accept. Too many young arms coming up to overpay for him

    Reply
    • hollidayfever

      7 years ago

      Actually the Cards shouldn’t offer anything close to either of those contracts. We’ve got plenty of superior options in house.

      Reply
      • natelowda2

        7 years ago

        I would love to see Reyes become the closer for a while. Then let him become a starter. It would be a good way to maintain his innings while seeing how he is in the clutch.

        Reply
  7. Daver520

    7 years ago

    Jim Bowden suggests he take the “best offer on the table” … Jim Bowden is a no talent Jerk !
    Leave Jim Bowden in a room with Ron Oester for 5 minutes to talk about “offers” …

    Reply
    • todda1

      7 years ago

      What?

      2
      Reply
    • stratcrowder

      7 years ago

      Yeah, Bowden only won a World Series in perhaps the smallest market in the NL.

      Reply
  8. jodygerut

    7 years ago

    How is Cabrera still unsigned

    Reply
    • xabial

      7 years ago

      Melk man? His def makes JDM, look like Andruw Jones.

      Melky Cabrera is the epitome of professional hitter. —
      Melky 2017: 620AB hit .285BA. — Career: 6250AB .286 BA.

      Melky 2017 Def: -20 DRS,—10.3 UZR (2 teams)

      JDM 2017 Def: -5 DRS, -7.7 UZR, 2017 (2 teams)

      Good news is JD is 30, and Melky is 33. Also, we all know which player you’d rather have on your team.

      Melky stats: fangraphs.com/statss.aspx?playerid=4022&posit…

      JDM stats: fangraphs.com/statss.aspx?playerid=6184&posit…

      3
      Reply
  9. Sheldon Bowen

    7 years ago

    I think with the Mariner’s injuries to three bullpen guys Phelps mostly. Also with erasimo Ramirez (who isn’t special). A starting five of Paxton, leake, Felix, Marco and Miranda/Whalen I wouldn’t count on that five eating the necessary innings for a playoff contender. Holland would make for a nice setup man to Diaz and it would help this bullpen from getting tired cause with the current pitching staff they won’t go far. My two cents.

    Reply
  10. jorge78

    7 years ago

    Worth is done.

    Reply
    • southi

      7 years ago

      No you worded it wrong. As a bunch of drunk fans in the rightfield stands repeatedly told everyone one night, ” Werth is worthless!”

      Reply
  11. hollidayfever

    7 years ago

    Actually the Cards shouldn’t offer anything close to either of those contracts. We’ve got plenty of superior options in house.

    Reply
  12. jabgdn

    7 years ago

    No interest in Mark Reynolds, last remaining 30 HR free agent?

    Reply
  13. dmarcus15

    7 years ago

    I don’t know if Holland gets signed before June 1st with having to give a draft spot for him.

    Reply
  14. Joseph Skorupa

    7 years ago

    Ever occur to any of you guys that maybe Holland just doesn’t want to pitch in Coor’s Field another season. All three of the options you all think he unwisely turned down would have put him back in Coor’s Field. Could have absolutely nothing to do with Boras, other than Boras respecting Holland’s top priority of pitching somewhere more pitcher friendly in 2018.

    Reply

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