After reporting this morning that the Marlins had agreed to a deal with right-hander Trevor Rosenthal, Bob Nightengale of USA Today reversed his initial report upon being informed by agent Scott Boras that no deal was in place. (Twitter links.) Indeed, to the contrary, Boras says that Rosenthal does not plan to sign a contract at all for the coming season.
It seems that Rosenthal, who is recovering from Tommy John surgery, had been weighing an offer from Miami that would have allowed him to complete his rehab and potentially return later in the 2018 season. Per the initial report, Rosenthal would have earned at the league-minimum rate in both the minors and majors for any active time in the current season.
Importantly, it was unclear whether the prospective contract was a minor-league deal or a split major-league deal. In the latter situation, presumably, Rosenthal would have earned MLB service time while on the disabled list. Whatever the case, Brian Stull of St. Louis Baseball Weekly reported (Twitter link) that the Cardinals made a “similar offer,” so there were evidently multiple teams in pursuit.
Instead, Rosenthal expects to complete his rehab and showcase for the teams in the 2018-19 offseason. It seems, then, that he’ll follow the course taken previously by Greg Holland, another Boras client. Holland underwent Tommy John surgery late in the 2015 season, much as Rosenthal did a year ago. He ended up waiting until early in 2017 to sign a deal that allowed him to earn good money for the coming season and then return to the open market thereafter.
There were, of course, alternatives. Many recovering TJ patients have found guaranteed money on the open market. Drew Smyly and Michael Pineda recently took down $10MM guarantees on two-year deals, despite the expectation that both will miss most or all of the 2018 campaign. Nathan Eovaldi was promised $4MM in the prior offseason. Relievers have similarly inked two-year arrangements in prior years, with Luke Hochevar and Eric O’Flaherty representing examples (though in both cases, their rehab timelines led to expectations of significant availability in the first season of the contract).
When the now-discarded report came through this morning, though, it seemed that there were two other possibilities. Because Rosenthal currently has just over five years of MLB service, he’d remain eligible for arbitration in 2019 even if he returned late in the season. Had he joined the Miami organization on a minors pact, then, the club would effectively have picked up an option. Rosenthal had projected to earn $7.9MM in his final season of eligibility, which isn’t exactly cheap but would also be quite an appealing price tag if he can regain his former form.
Of course, Boras no doubt anticipates there could be quite a bit more earning power for a pitcher who is still just 27 years of age. Thus, it seemed possible that Rosenthal could have inked a split MLB contract. In that case, he’d have gone onto the major-league DL, where he could have accrued enough service time to qualify for free agency at the end of the campaign while also having a shot at showcasing at the MLB level late in 2018. Only the possibility of a qualifying offer — unlikely, perhaps, to be issued by a budget-conscious Marlins organization — would have clouded Rosenthal’s future open-market status. Whether or not such an arrangement would have passed muster with league and union officials, perhaps, is an open (and thus-far hypothetical) question.
In any event, that’s all academic at this point. It now seems Rosenthal will work back to full strength before he goes after his next contract. Given his age and track record, it’s conceivable that he could end up even seeking a longer-term deal than the one Holland initially signed with the Rockies.
There certainly seems to be reason to hope that Rosenthal can again be a premium relief asset. Long a quality late-inning arm, he struggled quite a bit in 2016 but bounced back last season. In his 47 2/3 innings in 2017, Rosenthal pitched to a 3.40 ERA with a career-high 14.3 K/9 against 3.8 BB/9. He worked at 98.8 with his average heater and generated a 15.9% swinging-strike rate — both also personal bests, the latter by quite a significant margin over his career average.
$88,900 in the minors, and $545K if he makes it back to majors.
Not bad.
He had Tommy John back in August, so he’s expected to miss most — if not all 2018 —
I believe Relievers can sometimes return in a shorter timeframe than starters, but I wouldn’t count Rosenthal making a significant contribution in 2018.
There’s no report of a 2019 club option, so strange, to say the least.
This is the only analysis that made this make sense:
“In overseeing his rehab, however, Miami will have a better feel for Rosenthal’s overall health and 2019 outlook than other teams would, which could give them an edge in potentially re-signing the right-hander when he becomes a free agent again this winter.”
cbssports.com/fantasy/baseball/news/marlins-trevor…
That analysis doesn’t make much sense to me, honestly. The only way they end up signing him out of free agency is if he doesn’t really make it back but they still think he can and decide to chase some upside. If Rosenthal shows anything late in 2018 he’ll end up signing for more elsewhere.
Assuming this is a MLB split deal (which is what I expect), I think Miami’s interest here is to possibly get a quality reliever late in the year while doing a solid for Scott Boras by giving him a route to burn off Rosenthal’s remaining 5+ service time while also leaving him free to pitch in the majors this season when he’s ready. Maybe there’s some small chance that TR follows the Duke model and even becomes a trade piece this summer, though that seems unlikely.
$88,900 is MiLB minimum….”For all Players (a) signing a second Major League contract (not covering the same season as any such Player’s initial Major League contract) or a subsequent Major League contract, or (b) who have at least one day of Major League service, ” $90,400 next year
Must be nice to be able to pass on that kind of money
Smart move. He has under 6 years of ML time. Can purchase his contact before he becomes a FA at end of year and control him in 2019. Would be up for arbitration
Yes, if it’s a minor-league deal. I suspect it’s a split deal that’ll put him on the 40-man and allow him to earn service time, though that’s still not certain. That’s why I addressed both possibilities in the current version of the post.
Surprised more teams weren’t after him, considering the rehab contracts given out this winter. Good pitcher, good upside.
“In his 47 2/3 innings in 2018” wrong year, he pitched in 2017 not 2018.
Fixed.
Rosey has always wanted to start. His final arb salary as a SP could look even more managable to the Marlins in 2019.
Is your “hard to square” comment meant to be interpreted as “doesn’t make sense” that Pineda and Smyley got $10M and Rosenthal only got pennies? That’s probably because you’re comparing starters with a closer, and those contracts never look similar.
The point is that teams were willing to stake guaranteed money on pitchers who were going to spend much of the upcoming season rehabbing from TJ surgery. I wouldn’t necessarily expect Rosenthal to reach quite the level of money as a starter, but the general health situations aren’t different (except that a reliever would be expected to return somewhat sooner).
EDIT to add: There are examples of relievers being treated that way, too, including Luke Hochevar and Eric O’Flaherty. The ones I cited are just more recent.
Of course, it now seems to be only academic.
Nightengale has to be the worst reporter out there (other than Bowden, of course). It seems like he’s always wrong.
Actually I’d also throw Jerry Crasnick in there
Nightengale is the worst…hands down.
Didn’t take too long for Boras to kill that rumor.
Probably for the best. The Marlins don’t have much use for a closer.
Rosie was a starter in minors before he was brought up as closer for cards. He always expressed desire to go back to rotation but cards never had a spot. Interesting to see when he comes back if he try’s out as a starter or closer
Dear Mr. Nightengale: Wow you got your butt spanked on this.
FAKE NEWS
Rosenthal could wait until August and sign to a team if he’s healthy by then. Could be a nice payday if someone is desperate enough. It’d be better than giving up prospects.
Why fear the QO? You rehab, get ur time, & possibly showcase (following TJ & some poor performance pre-injury, if memory serves). Then say the Marlins QO you (which is unlikely): take it! $17.5M (or whatever it is then) is more than most RPs are getting for 2 years recently, unless you’re a top closer – which Rosenthal currently is NOT. Then kill your first fully healthy (and age 28) season closing for the Fish – and if you’re not closing, this is all academic anyway- and hit the open market before ur age 29 season, because nobody can ever QO you again. Seems like a plan.
Come on Cardinals!!! This is right up Mozeliak’s alley. Dumpster diving!!! Only this time, he knows what he’d be getting for the future!!! Can you imagine having Bowman, Lyons, Hicks, Holland, Rosenthal