SATURDAY: Longoria will undergo surgery Tuesday, and he’s likely to miss six to eight weeks, Alex Pavlovic of NBC Sports Bay Area was among those to report (Twitter link).
THURSDAY: Giants third baseman Evan Longoria has been diagnosed with a fracture to the fifth metacarpal of his left hand, Kerry Crowley of the Bay Area News Group was among those to report on Twitter. He’ll surely be headed to the DL, though that move has not yet formally taken place.
Longoria suffered the injury when he was struck by an errant pitch. It’s to his non-throwing hand, though surely will impact his ability to swing a bat. An anticipated timeline for his return isn’t yet known.
The 32-year-old has not exactly been at his best since arriving in San Francisco via trade over the winter. He has hit ten home runs in 268 plate appearances but is slashing just .247/.276/.435 while carrying a 3.7% walk rate that’s far below his career levels. Defensive metrics have not loved the glovework of Longoria, who has also already been charged with 11 errors.
That said, there are some more promising signs. Statcast numbers indicate that Longoria’s .277 batting average on balls in play reflects some poor fortune. He’s carrying only a .298 wOBA despite a more promising .340 xwOBA. And Longoria has long been a quality defender. Perhaps there was still some reason to hope, then, that he’d be capable of turning in average or better work at the plate and in the field the rest of the way.
Before he’ll have a chance to turn his season around — and help the Giants keep pace in a mercifully mediocre NL West — Longoria will need to get back to health. In the meantime, Pablo Sandoval and Alen Hanson will likely step in at the hot corner.
Absolutely fine with this, Hanson is doing better anyway.
Also, Slater can play 3rd….
I was just thinking why is Hanson not the everyday left fielder over Williamson, then this happened.
You mean platoon status Hanson who can’t hit LHP at all? He also never hit for power in the minors and is now averaging a HR roughly every 13 AB’s. He’s mainly used as a starter against a RHP or a pinch hitter…..He’ll come down to earth. Longo’s career splits against LHP and RHP are fairly minimal.
Until career-average Longoria finds a way to show up, his career-average splits seem rather meaningless
He has struggled against LHPs, .214 BA this season, but that’s from an extremely small sample, only 17 PAs. His career numbers against LHPs are better, still not great, .236 BA, but also a small sample size, only 61 PAs.
6 weeks I assume
Never been happier to see an injury on my own team. Needed to be benched, he only homers or drives in runs in games that are blowouts. Awful defense, bad trade by Evans, but Arroyo isn’t much better and was always overhyped.
Yeah this might give him enough if a break that he can acknowledge how his swing and approach has worsened and correct it. Maybe wishful thinking though.
He has a History unlike you
This is a site for fans, get over it.
Arroyo may not be much better now but he isnt going to cost this Giants over $60M over the next 4 years.
Bochy’s lineups haven’t been working out recently. Panik is hitting lead off, but is hitting in the 240s. This is a lineup Bochy should try: 1. Posey- Isn’t hitting for power but hits lots of singles/doubles and draws lots of walks. Would always be a safe bet to get on base. 2. Sandoval/Hanson- Both hitters make consistent contact, and rarely draw walks.
3. Crawford- Solid power, best at driving in runs. 4. McCutchen- Most power on team, can always clear the basss. 5. Williamson(Righties)Pence(Lefties) Williamson clearly sees righties better this season, Pence is showing signs of pop and has a much better approach. 6. Hundley- Consistent, Solid bat. 7. Gorkys- Good combo of power and contact, very streaky. 8. Panik- Defensive specialist, but strikes out rarely and can occasionally provide power.
Agreed. A couple things I would change: Belt is coming back in about two days, sliding in 4th and pushing Cutch to 5th.
Also, Sandoval is actually walking more now! Still a 2 spot hitter.
I believe Jackson is ahead of Pence, for good reason. I love Pence, but he still isn’t playing very well.
Pablo had previously averaged a walk roughly once every 14 PA’s…..he’s now at 12.5……..he sure is walking more! His K rate is also up…..only slightly, but you also seem to be pretty stoked about the “improved” walk rate.
Nah not that stoked about Sandoval… just happy he’s hitting more than .230
Referencing batting avg… lol
STFU
Wow. The Red Sox would have won b2b WS titles if only he’d hit .230 for them…
Putting the slowest guy on the team in the lead-off position isn’t the best idea.
Agreed. They need to trade for Hamilton and put him leadoff. Speed is the 100% most important thing for a leadoff hitter, and nothing even gets close to coming close. #sarcasm
So it’s all or nothing huh?
No one said, or even implied, that “Speed is the 100% most important thing for a leadoff hitter,…” Not sure where you got that, but there is a big difference between putting a guy at lead-off simply for the speed element, and ignoring the bases clogging effect of a slow runner in that position. Having speed is not the sole factor, but lack of speed should be taken into account.
And, in case you forgot, a single by Posey will score a runner, even one with average speed, from 2nd base, with a single. The concept of Posey at lead-off is flawed.
Panik’s BABIP is 0.248 which is awful. I’m not sure if he’s just super unlucky (because he squares up a lot of balls, they just go right at someone) or if the other teams just happen to know where to stand.
If he’s been unlucky then one should expect he will eventually go on a tear and those balls will drop for hits.
There is no way Posey hit’s leadoff, he’s too slow. Now… to be fair I think the point you’re making is that someone needs to be on base for others to drive in, but Bochy often will hit a mediocre hitter in leadoff just because they can run… case in point he hit Gorky’s there last year even though he was hitting below .200. Blanco’s worst stats were when he hit leadoff but Bochy still hit him there.
Anyway my point is that there’s no way Bochy hit’s Posey at leadoff.
he has hit a lot of atom balls right at guys lately in the shift so I can see how panik’s BABIP could look ugly – he does seem more like a classic #2 hitter though than a leadoff guy
Wow, it’s almost like you aren’t even aware that Longo is on the team…..Posey also doesn’t draw a lot of walks…he just doesn’t strike out much. I also like your logic of the #2 hitter…..the point of a #2 is to get on base for the #3 hitter…..but you suggest putting low OBP% guys there. Posey has excelled in the 2-4 hole…so sure, move him to leadoff where he has all of 2 AB’s
This isn’t the best way to gain friends. If someone isn’t making an obvious point, sarcasm is completely unnecessary.
.373 OBP but doesn’t draw a lot of walks. Right.
Posey has a 9.7% BB rate this year – above league average.
The lineup makes no sense , 4 OFs and Belt is back this week
He has pence and Williamson platooning
Belt was originally supposed to be activated today, but now the reports indicate he’ll be out of commission for another 2 weeks.
Hahahaha put the absolute SLOWEST guy on the team in the leadoff spot?? Uh ok
Umm, you want your best hitter batting second. Sandoval and hanson aren’t that. And in this hypothetical lineup there are two catchers, which might be fun to watch but is probably against the rules.
Panda Time!
Sounds like the same people who hated Pablo with a passion now would rather have him over our highly coveted acquisition of Longoria. Hanson hasn’t played in an everyday position so you have no idea how he’ll do. Can’t believe a true Giant fan would be glad our third baseman got hurt. This blog is a joke.
You obviously don’t watch the Giants. It’s fine. Just don’t speak on them if you don’t know what you’re talking about. Go cry somewhere else, little boy.
Ouch…
I watch every Giant’s game, and there’s no reason to be snarky because you disagree. Taking issue with a fan being happy about an injury to a quality player like Longoria is a valid criticism. Having the entire roster healthy, providing depth, is to every team’s advantage. Maybe you should learn more about baseball.
Says the most childish troll on this site
I bet you’re fun at parties.
people are just frustrated – personally I would like to see pence out of the lineup as much as I want him to succeed – I feel like at this point he is the only liability on the team. Longo is going to be around for a while so we really ought to root for him rather than be happy the guy gets hurt
As a Pirates fan, I vividly remember back in 2012-2013 when Hanson was coming from the Dominican league to the States alongside Marte and Polanco and putting up serious numbers. Over the years consistency and mental error issues caused his star to fade and combined with being put on the 40 man roster early to protect him from the rule 5 draft, management had to make a decision on him before he was ready and he wasn’t able to establish himself in Pittsburgh. I still think he has more than enough natural talent to be an All Star at the MLB level as a switch hitter with speed, solid defense and some pop in his bat.
yeah I have really enjoyed watching him, I hate to see anyone get hurt but the upside certainly is getting hanson some time and regular at bats
He hasn’t done much other than look like a ball player. We have more than enough depth. Sucks we have no pitching, or else we would be one of the best teams in the bigs.
yeah how did we go from the most pitching dominant team to the weakest so quickly…..
Injuries and lack of depth to replace them. Look at the Dodgers last year and they had more injuries than most on SP’s and yet had a really good season. Simply because they had like 10 legit starters.
I’m pleasantly surprised at the position players depth that SF has, honestly can tell you that I never expected this.
well I think some of it has to do with guys just falling off a cliff too, I mean lincecum and cain should be on the downside of their career but not absolutely unserviceable, even as a pen piece and out of the game completely. that happening required too many resources trying to replace them and then a few bad decisions and here we are. it is just kind of crazy how fast it happened.
It’s sad how quickly both Longo and Mccutchen have declined both offensively and defensively. The Rays and Bucs appear to have timed it just right.
The Giants should stop doing trades with the Rays. TB killed them in the Longo and Matt Moore trades
Cutch is a notorious slow starter, April and May career numbers are way worse than his summer months. He’s already starting to heat up so enjoy.
Cutch is starting to get it going. I think he’s about to put up some good numbers. Hope that I’m right!
Yeah he’s had like 3 consecutive 2-hit nights
Don’t quote me on that lol
Both were traded for financial reasons because both trading teams are small market, small payroll teams. Any decline, and the jury is still out, is purely coincidental.
Did people not read the entire post? It’s easy to see that Longoria has under-performed, but as was pointed out in the article, the numbers suggest a return to excellence is entirely possible. Or is the problem here one that neophyte fans make; jumping to a conclusion, like the Giants are better off without Longoria, based on a small sample?
A return to form is of course possible, but there are also things other than luck which could be the reason for the split between expected and actual
In the case of Longoria he’s staying the same to even getting a bit worse, not fluctuating or getting better – with a .247/.276/.435/.711 with a 277 BAbip on the season, .242/.276/.363/.638 with 278 BAbip the last month and .273/.292/.273/.564 with a 286 BAbip the last week. In other words, it looks like something else might be going on.
This shines even more when considering the last calander year; .256/.292/.428/.720 with a 279 babip or last years .261/.313/.424/.737 with a 282 babip – in other words, about the same numbers he’s still putting up now.
And when a guy so consistently produces similar numbers, those new consistently produced numbers are the new norm which should be expected moving forward, regardless of what might be expected of the average player (afterall, bad luck doesn’t stay consistently at a very specific level for multiple years in a row – that’s skill level showing itself)
You’re taking the macro view which I don’t think is the best for assessing Longoria in his current situation. If much was the same for him then sure. But on a new team, in a new ballpark, and switching leagues, the statcast numbers suggesting he’s hitting better than his numbers indicate is what I see as the basis for optimism. I know some think 32 is ancient, but he wouldn’t be the first guy to bounce back and be productive into his mid-30’s.
He wouldn’t be the first guy to fall completely off the cliff post 30 either – that’s fairly common, in fact
The real issue tho is that EVERY red flag from last year is still present and many have even gotten worse:
wFB/c -0.29 (career 1.14)
wCB/c -2.83 (career -0.48)
Swing% 49% (career 45%)
O-swing 34% (career 28%)
Contact 82% (career 78%)
O-contact 71% (career 64%)
z-contact 89% (career 85%)
F-strike 68% (career 58%)
…and you may notice that pitchers have noticed his issues, with his FA% (39% against career 34%) and CB% (14% against career 10%) both way up
(while he’s hit for just a .396 SLG off 268 babip on the fourseam and .177 SLG on 150 babip off the curve)
And while yes, he is hitting the ball a bit harder (leading to the higher xwOBA) he is also pounding it into the ground for the second straight season (GB% 43%, career 38%) and pulling nearly half the pitches he puts in play (47%, 22nd highest in game this season)
Ultimately it doesn’t really matter how hard it’s hit when you know what pitches he can’t do anything with, know it’s going to be on the ground and know it will be hit to the 3rd baseman/short stop. That represents where he is today, and it is destruction regardless what his hard hit grounders makes his xwOBA say
Longoria already had a dramatic downward shift in his game in 2014 at the age of 28. At 31 he seems to have had yet another downgrade, and this one has the flags of being a true killer.
Oh, and as far as team/league change – yeah, he moved to a more pitchers division in a pitchers park. Not exactly something which should increase his numbers
“Ultimately it doesn’t really matter how hard it’s hit…”
Not true. According to the latest research, balls hit 100 mph or faster result in hits 75% of the time. That’s including GBs.
In 2014 he played through what was reported as forearm stiffness. No numbers are going to tell you how much of a factor that was as opposed to a decline of skills. It’s hard to believe that going from an ISO of .230 in 2013 to .51 in 2018 was just natural decline. He was hampered by a sore wrist early this year.
And it’s not like he’s falling off a cliff. As he ages he’s going from superstar to an above average player. He was one of only 92 players in history to have 6 straight seasons with an ISO over .200. By WAR Fangraphs had him as the best player in baseball from 2008 to 2013. He was graded as being 35% better than the average MLB player. Since his numbers have declined he’s still graded out at 10% better than average.
Even a diminished Longoria is better than most alternatives, and if there is even the faintest hope for a rebound, the Giants have to stick with him when he returns.
* an ISO of .151 in 2014…
They are better off with having Arroyo produce the same offense as Longo for 6 more years making the mlb minimum/arbitration. As opposed to a declining Longo 66 million over the next 4 years
Posey clogs up the base path
This trade keeps getting uglier and uglier. Just wait till Arroyo gets it going. (It can happen). Too bad Longo is hurt but selfishly I’m glad some other guys will get more plying time. I am not sold on Hansons arm at 3B. But he has earned steady AB’s. Pablo is solid… batting .270’s I believe, plus that clutch gene. Giants will be okay at 3rd. At least until Longoria returns. Sorry Longo.
MLB trades take years to fully assess whether they were good or bad. Arroyo becoming a quality piece is not guaranteed. Other higher rated prospects have failed to even approach their ceiling because they couldn’t adjust. And Arroyo has struggled at times.
Above I show you the massive red flags in Longorias game which indicate this second downward turn in his skills is quite likely much worse than the one from a few years ago.
Couple that alarming issue with the 60.5 million the Giants took on, agreeing to pay to Longoria the next three seasons and well, does it really matter how good any of the players they gave up end up being?
Unless he turns it around and produces something closer to his 2013/age27 rates, the 20m/per over 3 seasons for a guy who is looking like he possibly fell off the cliff last season is already a massive loss that the prospects only add insult to
Defense will be the real test,anybody who saw him before would say:Please no dives to the left,let Craw get it and please come off the base and block like good defenders do when a throw is off target ala Playoffs against Nationals with Madbum,speed never slumps,go Hansen,offense will be fine either way.
Giants bought a ton of older players past there prime hoping they would regain there superstar status. Sorry with age comes decline. A franchise that was setup to be so successful had tanked so bad in recent years.
He’s had an interesting career. I feel like if he were dominican, people would say he is actually 3-5 years older. he seemed to decline going into his prime years