Perhaps the most significant trade that took place on the day of the August postseason eligibility trade deadline was the one that sent Josh Donaldson to the Indians. The former AL MVP has endured an injury-plagued season owing to his shoulder and calf, but made it back to the field on a rehab assignment just in time to be put through trade waivers and ultimately sent to Cleveland in exchange for salary relief and a player to be named later.
At the beginning of the 2018 season, it would have seemed unfathomable that the Jays would get so little value as a result of Donaldson’s departure. Few expected them to seriously contend amidst a division that features the Red Sox and Yankees, but if they had been competitive enough to keep Donaldson through season’s end, most would have bet heavily on an outcome in which he’d receive and reject a qualifying offer. That would have netted the Jays a first-round pick had he signed for $50MM or more elsewhere, a scenario that the majority of baseball enthusiasts also would have put money on. And certainly if you’d have told a pundit back in March that Toronto would fall out of competition by late July, they’d have been wondering which team gave up a top prospect in order to acquire him ahead of the non-waiver trade deadline.
The actual outcome was an awful bout of bad fortune for both Donaldson and the Jays, of course. He only stayed on the field enough to accrue 159 plate appearances, and his performance was inconsistent with his track record. Most readers of MLBTR will by now recognize .234/.333/.423 as Donaldson’s batting line so far in 2018, a far cry from the numbers he’d previously put up over the course of his tenure in Canada.
In no small part due to those factors, the receipt of a qualifying offer that once seemed a foregone conclusion for the 33-year-old became a decision clouded with doubt across the industry. The club certainly faced serious risk had they kept the slugger. A full return to form would have made it worth issuing him a one-year contract approaching $20MM, but a poor or even average performance would have forced the Blue Jays with a difficult choice: let their star third baseman walk for nothing or make him an exorbitant offer and thereby risk both a payroll albatross and 2019 roster crunch involving Vladimir Guerrero Jr.
Evidently, the Jays decided that the Tribe’s offer to pay $1.3MM of his remaining salary and fork over a young player presented a better alternative to taking such a risk. Reportedly, they’ll receive right-hander Julian Merryweather, who ranked as the club’s 15th-best prospect headed into the season prior to undergoing Tommy John surgery. One could certainly argue that Merryweather holds more upside and less risk than a late-first-round pick in next year’s draft, but his recent injury would make that a tough sell.
For that reason, some fans and reporters have chided the Jays for “giving Donaldson away”. That’s not literally the case, as anyone who wanted the three-time All-Star could have simply claimed him on waivers; all 29 rival teams opted to pass on that front). Still, one could look at the scenario as Toronto paying the Indians over $2MM to take Donaldson off their hands (though they’d have to assume that Merryweather has no value).
On the other hand, it’s perhaps a positive thing that the Jays were able to get Donaldson back on the field in time to reap any value at all from him. Though he’s absolutely raked during his rehab assignment in Cleveland, Toronto could have very easily watched Donaldson re-injure himself and thus been criticized by some fans for keeping him through September.
What do you think? How do you rate this trade from the Blue Jays’ perspective? (Poll link for app users)
[polldaddy poll=10102672]
He was of no additional good to Toronto. If he plays at all in Cleveland, it’s a pretty solid trade.
“He was of no additional good to Toronto”
He was good for Toronto. Dude had a MVP season and talent was there; just couldnt stay heathy. When he was about to come back, they dumped him. No reason not to give him QO? Very Mets-esque move.
I believe he had a good chance, as any to rebound. If he comes back even 50% the player he was— they probably would have gotten more than they got.
Only if he would resign with Toronto after the season.
Either he accepts the QO and “resigns” with Toronto or he leaves and they get a draftpick
With his injuries and replacement breathing down his neck he wasn’t getting a QO, which is why whatever they got was better than nothing.
I think it would be a pretty boneheaded move not to offer him a QO. As they say there is no bad one year deal. I would gamble on him healing and having more value next year and potentially getting a much better prospect for him. That’s a smart strategy for rebuilding clubs, get players on one year deals and trade them if they play well. If they don’t play well or get injured, then they are off the books after 1 year. I highly doubt the Jays are in the playoffs next year, and having Donaldson on the roster would allow them to keep Vlad down until they get that extra year of control or super 2. They can still keep him down of course, but having a player like JD at the position, it allows them a more defensible position in doing so.
I don’t know who “they” are but they are definitely wrong.
$18M is no small amount of money. It’s well over 10% of the entire club’s payroll. This for a guy who will be lucky to record 200 PA’s this year. A guy who was banged up the year before. A guy who is blocking their top prospect.
Josh Donaldson was a stud. Father Time has caught up to him though. This winter will prove out that the market no longer values him that way. Unless he does a complete 180, I’m guessing that he lands well below the QO rate as a FA.
https://www.mlb.com/news/best-and-worst-of-offseasons-one-year-deals/c-289432022 read the opening line.
For a team that is not likely to contend, using money on a player that you can potentially flip for prospects is a smart move.
yes while that usually makes sense, not when he is blocking arguably the top prospect in baseball.
But the gamble is, as the MLB article shows, will Donaldson have a bounce back year and they could have flipped him or would he have a yeah like this year and they would not get any thing more,than they,got and cost themselves a ton of money in the process. Toronto must have put their money on the latter. They must not have wanted to have to pay him the QO should he have accepted it.
They are probably going to be keeping Vlad down until at least May and potentially June for Super 2. If JD plays well in April and May, you flip him for a prospect(s) and bring up your top prospect. The QO isn’t a 3 year deal
And that’s fine, just a bad move imo and I’m glad i’m not a jays fan
Don’t think you can give it anything higher than a D. While they maybe got the best they could for him now, they could’ve got a kings ransom if they traded him during the off-season
I believe Donaldson would have been lost to Toronto after the season. Toronto would have had to trade him last off season.
Only way the Jays could have traded him in the postseason would have been after the 17 season. He’s a free agent after this year and ineligible to be traded after this year.
Postseason trades… can you imagine?
I believe he is a fa after the year
Oh hey he is a free agent after this year I do believe. Also not sure if it’s just going over my head or everyone else’s but think this fella meant this past off season not 2018-19
No king’s ransom for an unrestricted free agent. Toronto got something for him, which is about all they could do.
No not really. They could have offered him a QO offer and if he turns it down, get what is very likely a better player than they settled for, or if he accepts the QO and he is even a shadow of the player he was then you trade him for even more
It’s definitely not very likely their comp pick would be better, too many variables, too many busts, too many “sure things” that end up never making it. He probably wouldn’t have accepted the QO, because he’s Josh Donaldson, not a fringe QO player. He gets a better one year deal on the open market because he can’t be offered a QO again, IF he was ever thinking of a one year deal. Now that he’s been traded, the playoffs will be his showcase of rebuilding value, and if he plays well, he’ll be looking for 4 or 5 years
I’m not sure what your point is exactly. Of course prospects more often bust than boom and it is a crapshoot. Are you saying that you would rather have the 27 year old recovering from TJS than a draft pick? I wouldn’t.
I do not think that anyone would argue with the fact that Josh Donaldson will get a more lucrative free agent contract without the QO denial being attached to the deal. I think he’ll have to play extremely well to get a 5 year deal at this point
They were afraid he might accept the QO…
I read somewhere recently, that unlike a couple of years back, this potential Donaldson Comp Pick would have been in like the 70+ overall range. That is not a compelling pick.
Just last year, Merryweather was rated in Cleveland’s top 13 Prospects. Merryweather’s Minor League ERA isn’t of paramount importance; he still struck out over 9 K’s/9 innings. Minor League starters are focused on working on their least effective pitches anyways.
IF JD were to have accepted the $18 Million QO, the Blue Jays figured that Merryweather was a better option than “hoping” that JD can have a good enough 2019 to get a better haul before the 2019 trade deadline.
With JD’s recent and chronic injury history, the 2019 haul would have not been supremely better than what Merryweather. could have to offer.
I am inclined to believe that the Jays made the correct, albeit safest and least-fan-friendly choice.
Based on new QO, he’d have to sign for more than 50 million to net the Jays a pick at the end of the first round. I don’t think that’s happening. So now the pick is after comp round B, which is after the 2nd round, 75-80 picks deep or so. Throw TJ out of the equation, it’s a “When” not “If” scenario. Do I like the 97mph guy with the plus change and great control? Yeah, I’ll take him in this case every time.
Why would anyone pay more in the off-season then a team now trying to win it all this year?
Agreed sports fan. Yes his injury is a huge question mark. But not a single team was willing to risk what I think was a four million dollar investment for the rest of the season which shows you their lack of confidence that he’ll have some monster run at seasons end. Assuming that he doesn’t some of you are living in the past to say he’d get a QO and crazy to think he wouldn’t pounce on it. Not totally impossible but nobody’s paying 18 million for a player his age under these circumstances. He has to prove he’s the old Donaldson by seasons end or he’s getting a fraction of 18 million as a prove it deal. To say a guy that looked like a shell of his old self another year or two older who’s developed some injury issues is going to turn down the QO and net the Jays more than what the Indians gave up is crazy and suggesting it’s a win win that if he accepts you get him for 18 million is equally as mad. He has a lot to prove in a short time if he even makes it back. With all that said I just don’t see it. Anything is possible but the Jays took the guaranteed partial salary dump and a lottery type prospect and they did just fine
I think it’s a bit early to call winners and losers.
It’s not calling for winners or losers. it’s grading purely for the Jays
Is there anything more ridiculous than grading this trade? He hasn’t played a single game for them.
I know what you mean. We can’t accurately grade this trade until at minimum Donaldson is back in the majors and gives us the chance to see if a qualifying offer should of been issued or not. Even then who knows when or if Merryweather will make the majors. Honestly I’m sick of having an article a day about him.
Yeah I know, I hate how they make articles that I’m not interested in reading since we are penalized for not reading it. Oh wait, I just realized that we’re not and if there’s an article we don’t care about then we could keep scrolling and move on to content that we do care about! This is a gamechanger!
It’s as though MLBTR thinks it’s providing a website without a subscription fee or something… /s/
If he likes Toronto he could sign a one year deal for less than the QO cost. Then it would be a net win for the Jays. I’d take a college clser, plus the bonus money, over a 26 year old men minor league coming off TJ surgery.
F. Should’ve given him a QO. He’ll accept it, and u hope for a rebound and better return 2019. You’re not a small-market.
Personally, I don’t think he would have taken the QO. I think he could get a better 2 year deal this offseason, and go back to playing on grass full time. I know they went to a dirt “infield” but it’s not enough, and I think it hindered Donaldson, at least a little bit
Then they would get a comp pick at the end of the first round which likely would have been better than what they got from Cleveland. If he accepts, then deal him at next year’s deadline.
Not “likely”. Look at how many first rounders never make it. It was a toss up either way they went.. Maybe Merryweather gets turned into a decent reliever, and moves up, Toronto gets him in the bigs sometime in 2019. Much faster than a draft pick
He wasn’t getting it offered and he’d accept in a heartbeat. For the Jays there are no playoffs and even less time to prove he’s worthy. Not a chance
I think if it was a fringe QO guy, you might be right. But you offer Donaldson the QO, because 1 year, for about 19 million or so on a MVP caliber player is an easy choice for a team like Toronto. But I don’t think he would have accepted it, and definitely not “in a heartbeat”
Laser – would have taken my chances with a late-1st rounder over a 27 year old broken down arm.
Would have also been fine with a decline of a QO. And fine with an acceptance. Not this trade.
The Jays traded away a player and received a guy who hasn’t returned from TJ surgery. Merryweather has a 20% chance of never playing at the highest level and even if he does the median number of innings expected is 130. Ms even if you get those innings he doesn’t project to be anything more than a back end starter. This is a terrible trade for the Jays, I give it an F
As a retired teacher, this is like giving a student a final grade on a science project that is due in two weeks. It makes no sense. Perhaps if you asked the question AFTER the season is completed, or AFTER the Indians are eliminated from the playoffs, or AFTER the Indians win the World Series, or even AFTER the clubs announce the PTBNL, only then would this poll make any sense at all.
As a retired teacher, this is like giving a student a final grade on a science project that is due in two weeks. It makes no sense.
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Hate to break it to you, but the education system isn’t exactly getting the job done.
I would suggest to you that final grades are pointless, and some constructive evaluation would’ve been far more valuable in the middle of the project, than a final grade was at the end of it.
I think you missed the point. D-.
I think you have nothing constructive to say. And, since I’m not one of your high school age students, condescension isn’t going to work.
And then you drop a grade, thus destroying your first point. Well done Teach, you fail while you cash in on tenure. Good luck on that rough 9 month job while you complain about working too hard….
Stansfield was being too nice to you.
Good teachers provide formative assessment (“constructive evaluation,” e.g. feedback on a draft) as well as summative assessment (final grade, exam results, e.g.).
This little bit of Pedagogy 101 doesn’t really have much effect on our ability to understand Lifetimebaseballfan’s analogy, though, as he compares the poll grade to the final grade on the science project.
There’s really no space for an equivalent to formative assessment in the analogy, unless you think that MLB front offices are going to read the poll results with bated breath and adjust their strategies accordingly.
Good teachers provide formative assessment (“constructive evaluation,” e.g. feedback on a draft) as well as summative assessment (final grade, exam results, e.g.).
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No, that’s not what good teachers do. That’s what mindless drill instructors do.
Good teachers empathize, connect, and lead by example. I wouldn’t expect anyone who never had a good teacher to understand what any of this means, though. Have you ever had a teacher empathise, connect, and teach you?
I was responding to your comment about assessment. Good teachers assess effectively, and do lots of other things as well, including the relationship-building you mention.
In fact, the two practices support each other – we can assess students better when we know them well, and our relationships improve as we help students build on their strengths, improve on their areas for growth, and reach new levels of skill.
Seeing as I have 17 years in the classroom, I might know a little bit about the topic, but you seem to be more interested in setting up straw men to knock down.
I wish you and the other teacher luck when you walk out of the classroom to picket for more money. Although you don’t need luck since you inevitably receive what you don’t earn like a spoiled child.
Maybe this isnt the spot to grind that axe, eh ?
I’m with the teacher in this one.
Way to add substance to the conversation.
What it really shows is how little competition there is in baseball, compared to sports across the world.
Baseball showers the team that finishes last with consolation prizes. In European football (and most European sports), the last three teams in most leagues lose their place in the competition.
That means that the interests of fans, players, management and ownership are always 100% aligned: everyone’s sole purpose is to win. All teams want to spend the most money possible each year, and field the best players available for every game.
Teams that are competing for a title don’t face off against rebuilding teams. They only face off against teams trying to win. The rebuilding happens in lower leagues, where lower level teams face up against each other, and the winners are each year rewarded with a place back in the big leagues…this also means that there are two avenues players have, to reach the limelight:
1. to stand out as an individual (which results in a sale to a club in the big leagues)
2. to be promoted as a team….which, of course, makes that minor league fan experience far superior to anything the baseball minor leagues have to offer.
Since you gave up nothing, how is this anything but an A?
Indians’ perspective!
Why exactly would Toronto want him back next year? He’s constantly injured, was showing signs of decline, and the Jays aren’t going anywhere next year regardless. Does a declining Donaldson magically make the Jays contenders? Of course not. Why suffer through even more of an infield roster crunch for an expensive player you don’t need?
This question is being asked a year too soon. Merryweather needs to pitch for the Blue Jays in some capacity before we can judge the trade.
His career is over. Guys who “breakout” as late as he did, are usually very quick to decline. And usually end up with careers looking like a few fluke years. Ala, Donaldson
5 consecutive seasons of all-star, elite caliber stats aren’t “a few fluke years”.
Elite caliber stats for 5 seasons? LOL, A 29 98 .255 season is not “elite” these days. Nor is 33 78 .270……….. Let’s also not forget how terrible his defense has become. In all those seasons he had a war over 8 Once………. So in reality, he was good. Pretty good. But only ONCE was he elite
STLOUIS COULD HAVE HAD HIM AND GIVEN UP MORE.THANK GOD IT DIDNT HAPPEN.
This has to be viewed as a failure of the highest order. The vast majority of the danbase and the media knew that the odds of things working out this season were low, and it wasn’t worth the risk to keep Donaldson into the season.
If Merryweather was 22, you might view this as a B or C, given the circumstances. But he’s 27, and the kind of reclamation project that you might pick up through waivers, Rule 5, Minor League FA, or even for some low level prospects. I’m certainly not convinced that he’s worth more than a pick in the 70-80 range (QO compensation).
This was terrible asset management, full stop. And on the flip side, the Indians got an absolute steal.
A steal? He hasn’t played a game yet, and may never do so. Grade this after the WS.
By the time he takes the field for CLE we’ll be more than 1/3 of the way through September. Tribe really has nothing to lose and everything to gain here. I’m just trying to understand how a calf strain can keep anyone on the shelf for 80+% of the year, but if any team knows about that it’s CLE (see Lonnie Chisenhall injury history).
Draft pick compensation would be after the competitive balance 2nd round due to Toronto’s market size. That’s would be around pick 80.
Total F grade. Everyone failed. Front office, injuries, timing of the trade etc.
Still, QO was the best option. Yes $18-mil is a lot of money if accepted. Estrada off the books, decline Solarte’s option, deal Smoak and Travis, possibly an OF and there’s more than $18-mil saved.
An investment of $18-mil to a former MVP, one of the best players in franchise history, sell more Donaldson merchandise, be a leader to younger players and another opportunity to trade him at the 2019 deadline all pointed toward keeping him.
Trim, QO was defenitely the best business decision not made. And lets not forget this situation is a great illustration of the bad assessment and scouting of the Jays front office when it was suggested by many to trade Doanldson last year in a lost year.
There is smoke coming off of the Jays leadership team at the moment. Let’s see how much burns if any by year end.
Cubs get a f for giving up on Donaldson,
Oakland gets and F too, two of the four players traded for Donaldson are out of baseball and one of the pitchers has never had a sub 3 era while Donaldson had an MVP season with 3 as appearances.
I think a team like the Brewers makes a one year deal with him next year. If he’s healthy and raking, great! Leave Shaw at 2nd until Dubon or Hiura are ready. That’s a good risk…
How can you grade it when he hasn’t even played for them yet?
Reading some of the articles and comments here is like reading a Kafka or Camus novel.
This trade actually may have helped him…yes he loss value however now being on a contender I would not be surprised he takes a 1 yr deal so he can try to regain form.
I think that in the position they were in, they got the best the could, but I still think they completely mishandled this by not trading him last year’s deadline or last winter
Ken Rosenthal is reporting that both the Yankees and Red Sox voiced their displeasure to MLB about the Donaldson trade. Based on the circumstances, seems they should be upset. I wasn’t aware of this, trade should not have been allowed to happen.
If they had a problem with it they should have claimed him and blocked the Jays from trading him.
How would they have blocked him, The waiver claim process presented Cleveland for a shot at him before the Yankees or Red Sox…..they both have a better record
Unless I’m mistaken, Donaldson made it through the entire Waiver Wire unclaimed by anyone, so he was allowed to be traded to any team.
Perhaps NYY and Boston didn’t anticipate that anyone would actually offer enough to the Blue Jays for them to actually make a deal; so they risked it by not making a claim. And now they are upset that they misjudged the situation and they might possibly have to face him in the Postseason.
Has he even played for Cleveland yet. What’s the point of this question