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Julian Merryweather

Mets Sign Julian Merryweather To Minor League Deal

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The Mets signed right-hander Julian Merryweather to a minor league deal this evening, as relayed by MLB.com’s Anthony DiComo.

Merryweather, 33, was a fifth-round pick by Cleveland back in 2014. Traded to Toronto as part of the Josh Donaldson deal, he made his big league debut with the Blue Jays during the shortened 2020 season. The right-hander showed some promise with a 4.15 ERA and 2.27 FIP across 13 innings in that rookie season, but he never quite lived up to it in future seasons after he was derailed by elbow and oblique issues among other injuries over the years. He put together a 5.64 ERA and 4.36 FIP in 47 appearances with the Blue Jays overall before being designated for assignment in January of 2023.

The right-hander was promptly plucked off waivers by the Cubs, and enjoyed the best season of his career that year. In 72 innings of work as a high leverage arm for Chicago, Merryweather posted a 3.38 ERA with a 3.52 FIP and struck out a fantastic 32.3% of his opponents. Those huge strikeout numbers were enough to overcome a career-high 11.9% walk rate, and Merryweather entered the 2024 season firmly in the Cubs’ late inning mix alongside closer Adbert Alzolay and offseason addition Hector Neris. Unfortunately, Merryweather was part of a bullpen implosion early in the season that proved fatal to Chicago’s chances last season. He spent most of the season sidelined by a knee injury that ultimately required surgery, and even when he was healthy enough to pitch he struggled to a 6.60 ERA with a strikeout rate that had plummeted to just 18.9%.

It was easy enough to blame Merryweather’s struggles in 2024 on his injuries, which may have thrown him off mechanically and contributed to his fastball velocity losing two ticks relative to the prior season. To whatever extent that may have been the case, however, a healthy offseason clearly wasn’t all it took to fix Merryweather’s issues. His velocity remained down this year, and 2025 proved to be more of the same as he pitched to a subpar 5.79 ERA while striking out a career-low 17.0% of his opponents and walking a career-high 12.5%. The right-hander’s 21 outings for Chicago this year were clearly too much for the club to stomach, as he was designated for assignment as the team turned to more reliable late-inning options like Brad Keller, Drew Pomeranz, and Daniel Palencia who had emerged in recent weeks.

Merryweather eventually went unclaimed on waivers, and the Cubs had the option to outright him to the minors as a non-roster depth option for the remainder of the year as he was a few days shy of the ability to reject the assignment while retaining his full salary. Chicago chose to grant the righty his release, however, and he returned to free agency late last month. Now, he’s on to New York to join a Mets club that is tied with Chicago for the best record in the National League. The Mets will try to recapture what made Merryweather so effective with the Cubs in 2023 while he gets to work at Triple-A Syracuse as a potential depth piece alongside arms like Justin Garza and Colin Poche.

Cubs Release Julian Merryweather

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The Cubs released reliever Julian Merryweather, according to the MLB.com transaction log. He’d been designated for assignment last week when they selected Brooks Kriske (who is himself now in DFA limbo).

Merryweather, 33, lost his roster spot after a rough start to the season. The righty gave up 13 runs (12 earned) through his first 18 2/3 innings. He fanned 15 while issuing 11 walks and surrendering a couple home runs. Merryweather had struggled last season as well, allowing a 6.60 ERA across 15 innings. He lost a good portion of the year to a rib fracture in his back and also battled late-season knee tendinitis.

Since the start of the 2024 season, Merryweather has allowed 6.15 earned runs per nine in 36 appearances. That’s well off the pace he showed two years ago, when he posted a 3.38 ERA across a career-high 72 innings. Merryweather collected 17 holds and a pair of saves as one of Chicago’s best relievers that year. His stuff hasn’t been as crisp over the past couple seasons. He has lost two ticks of velocity on both his four-seam fastball and slider since his 2023 peak.

That’s probably in part due to injury. Last year’s rib issue was the latest in a long line of health questions. Merryweather underwent Tommy John surgery as a minor leaguer in 2018. He debuted for the Blue Jays in 2020 but missed a good chunk of the following season due to a significant oblique strain. A 2022 abdominal strain again led to a notable absence, leading Toronto to waive him at the end of that year.

Merryweather is playing on a $1.25MM arbitration salary. Assuming he clears release waivers, the Cubs will remain on the hook for that money. He’ll be free to pursue other opportunities and would only cost his new team the prorated portion of the $760K league minimum for any time he spends on the big league roster.

Cubs Designate Julian Merryweather For Assignment

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The Cubs announced they’ve designated reliever Julian Merryweather for assignment. He’ll be replaced on the active and 40-man rosters by Brooks Kriske, whose contract was selected from Triple-A.

Merryweather, 33, loses his roster spot thanks to a rough start to the season. The hard-throwing righty has given up 13 runs (12 earned) through his first 18 2/3 innings. He has fanned 15 while issuing 11 walks and surrendering a couple home runs. He’d fallen down the bullpen hierarchy and was working in mostly low-leverage spots. The Cubs called upon him down by two runs in the fifth inning against Cincinnati yesterday. He retired only two of six batters faced and gave up a pair of runs while struggling through 32 pitches.

The Cubs erased the four-run deficit and went on to a fairly comfortable 13-6 win, but Merryweather likely would not have been available for a couple days. His performance didn’t make all that compelling a case to retain his middle relief spot anyhow. Merryweather has allowed 6.15 earned runs per nine in 36 appearances since the start of the 2024 season — a marked dip from a ’23 campaign in which he posted a 3.38 ERA across a career-high 72 innings.

Chicago has five days to explore trade possibilities before they’ll need to place him on waivers. Merryweather is playing this season on a $1.225MM arbitration contract. Any team that claims him would assume the remainder of that salary. If he clears waivers, he’d quite likely accept a minor league assignment to Triple-A Iowa. Merryweather has the requisite three years of service to decline an outright assignment, but he’s a handful of days shy of the five-year service cutoff. That’s the point at which he could elect free agency while still collecting the rest of his salary.

The 31-year-old Kriske could make an MLB appearance for the first time since 2023. He signed an offseason minor league deal that’ll pay him a prorated $900K for his time in the majors. Kriske had spent time on the 40-man rosters of the Reds and Orioles last year but did not make it into a big league game. He’d combined for a 3.39 ERA across 58 1/3 Triple-A innings, though, making him a solid depth addition on a minor league deal.

Kriske is out to a similar start this year in Iowa. The righty sports a 3.38 ERA with a massive 36% strikeout rate through 18 1/3 frames. He has walked over 10% of opponents, but he’s missing plenty of bats behind a three-pitch mix (fastball, splitter, slider). Kriske has a long history of big strikeout and walk tallies in his minor league career. He was hit hard in scattered MLB stints between 2020-23 for the Yankees, Orioles and Royals. He carries an 11.22 earned run average over 20 career big league outings.

The Cubs’ Bullpen Outlook

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The Cubs entered spring training this year with their bullpen largely set. Offseason trade acquisitions of Ryan Pressly and Ryan Brasier added a pair of veteran righties — including a closer, Pressly — to the late-inning mix. Chicago signed lefty Caleb Thielbar to a one-year, $2.75MM deal. That trio joined Porter Hodge, Tyson Miller and Keegan Thompson as virtual locks. All three holdovers pitched very well in 2024, and the latter two are out of minor league options.

There are plenty of candidates for the remaining spots, the bulk of whom are on the 40-man roster already. Righty Julian Merryweather is coming off a poor showing in an injury-marred season that included an April rib fracture and season-ending knee surgery in September. He yielded 11 runs in 15 innings (6.60 ERA), but Merryweather was excellent in 2023, logging a 3.38 ERA and 32.3% strikeout rate in 72 innings for the Cubs. He’s also out of minor league options, which surely gives him a leg up on others. (Four scoreless spring innings with a 5-to-1 K/BB ratio so far isn’t hurting his cause, either.)

Others on the 40-man roster include righties Nate Pearson, Eli Morgan, Jack Neely, Daniel Palencia, Ethan Roberts and Gavin Hollowell. All have at least one minor league option remaining. However, the Cubs have at least one non-roster invitee who’s making a push for a spot: veteran righty Brad Keller.

Maddie Lee of the Chicago Sun-Times wrote yesterday that Keller’s average fastball is up more than three miles per hour this spring, sitting 96.3 mph and topping out at 98 mph. Pitching coach Tommy Hottovy and manager Craig Counsell both spoke highly of Keller’s stuff this spring, with the skipper noting to Lee that Keller has been “more than we expected” so far in camp. Keller’s four runs in seven innings of work don’t stand out, but teams are far more focused on raw stuff, velocity and command when looking at such a small sample. Keller has allowed only seven hits and a walk while punching out six hitters and inducing grounders at a 48% clip so far.

Patrick Mooney of The Athletic reports that Keller’s velocity jump and smoother mechanics have not only made him a legitimate consideration to break camp but made it “likely” that the team will add Keller to the roster. The veteran righty has a looming opt-out opportunity in his deal, so the Cubs will either have to select his contract to the big league roster or risk him landing with another team. His minor league pact comes with a $1.5MM base salary, per Mooney, making Keller an affordable addition to the relief corps if the team sees fit.

Adding Keller to the mix, however, comes with complications. Right now, the Cubs have six relievers who cannot be optioned to the minors in the running for bullpen spots: Pressly, Brasier, Thielbar, Miller, Thompson and Merryweather. Hodge has a full slate of minor league options remaining, but coming off a 1.88 ERA and 31.7% strikeout rate in 43 rookie innings, he’s not going anywhere. He’s locked into a seventh spot in the ’pen.

Effectively, unless the Cubs are willing to move on from Merryweather, they only have one bullpen spot available. Plugging Keller into that spot would render their bullpen largely static, barring injury. Keller has more than five years of MLB service (6.062, to be more specific). He can’t be optioned without his consent.

That level of bullpen inflexibility is tough for any team to manage. Early off-days in the season would help, but if the Cubs needed to call up a fresh arm at any point, they’d be left choosing between optioning Hodge or designating someone for assignment. It’s not an ideal setup.  (The Mets faced a similar situation with their bench when weighing whether to re-sign Jose Iglesias, which is largely why he ended up with the Padres.)

The situation would only grow murkier when righty Javier Assad is healed up from an oblique injury. Assad has been ruled out for Opening Day and is presumably IL-bound to begin the year. If he returns in April, however, he’d likely push righty Colin Rea from the fifth starter’s spot to a long relief role. Rea, like many of his teammates on the staff, can’t be optioned. The Cubs could technically option Assad, but he pitched 147 innings of 3.73 ERA ball out of the rotation last year; his strikeout, walk an home run rates all point to some regression, but Assad has still pitched well enough to this point in his career (3.40 ERA in 294 innings) that he can be considered a lock when healthy.

It’s always possible that further injuries sort the situation out organically. Injuries, particularly on the pitching side of things, are an inevitability for any team over the course of a six-week spring training and 162-game season. But with the bulk of the pitching staff healthy right now and minimal flexibility due to their lack of optionable arms, the Cubs seem like they’ll be forced into some decisions on those out-of-options arms sooner than later.

Players Avoiding Arbitration: 11/22/24

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The deadline for teams to tender contracts to arbitration-eligible players is tonight at 7pm CT. Throughout the day, we’ll surely see a handful of arb-eligible players agree to terms with their clubs to avoid a hearing.

These so-called “pre-tender deals” usually, although not always, involve players who were borderline non-tender candidates. Rather than run the risk of being cut loose, they can look to sign in the lead-up to the deadline. Those salaries often come in a little below projections, since these players tend to have less leverage because of the uncertainty about whether they’ll be offered a contract at all.

Under the 2022-26 collective bargaining agreement, players who sign to avoid an arbitration hearing are guaranteed full termination pay. That’s a change from prior CBAs, when teams could release an arb-eligible player before the season began and would only owe a prorated portion of the contract. This was done to incentivize teams and players to get deals done without going to a hearing.

All salary projections in this post come via MLBTR contributor Matt Swartz. This post will be updated throughout the day/evening as deals are announced and/or reported.

  • The Mets announced that they have agreed to a one-year contract with right-hander Sean Reid-Foley, though salary figures have not yet been reported. He was projected for a $900K salary next year after posting a 1.66 ERA but in just 21 2/3 innings due to injury.
  • The Rangers announced they avoided arbitration with right-hander Josh Sborz, who was projected for a $1.3MM salary next year. He’ll come in just shy of that at $1.1MM, per Jeff Wilson of Rangers Today (X link). He underwent a shoulder debridement procedure recently, per Evan Grant of the Dallas Morning News (X link) and will likely miss the first two or three months of 2025.
  • The Tigers and infielder Andy Ibanez have agreed to a salary of $1.4MM next year, per Francys Romero (X link). That’s a shade below his $1.5MM projection. Ibanez hit .241/.295/.357 in 99 games for the Tigers in 2024.
  • The Guardians avoided arbitration with right-hander Ben Lively, per Paul Hoynes of cleveland.com (X link). He’ll make $2.25MM next year, below his $3.2MM projection. Lively had a 3.81 ERA in 151 innings for the Guards this year.
  • The Cubs and right-hander Julian Merryweather have avoided arbitration by agreeing to a salary of $1.225MM, per Jesse Rogers of ESPN (X link). That’s just shy of his $1.3MM projection. Merryweather had a 6.60 ERA in 2024 but was injured most of the time and only made 15 appearances. He had a solid 3.38 ERA the year prior in 72 innings. The Cubs also agreed to terms with catcher Matt Thaiss and righty Keegan Thompson, per Meghan Montemurro of the Chicago Tribune (X link), though salary figures have not yet been reported.
  • The Blue Jays got a deal done with right-hander Erik Swanson, per Shi Davidi of Sportsnet on X. The righty was projected for $3.2MM next year but will make a smidge less than that, with Keegan Matheson of MLB.com (X link) relaying that Swanson will make $3MM. He had a 5.03 ERA in 2024 but was at 2.97 the year prior and also finished this year strong, with a 2.55 ERA in the second half.
  • The Yankees reached agreement with center fielder Trent Grisham on a $5MM salary, reports Jorge Castillo of ESPN (on X). The deal contains another $250K in incentives. The two-time Gold Glove winner had been projected at $5.7MM. Grisham had an underwhelming .190/.290/.385 showing during his first season in the Bronx. The Yankees will nevertheless keep him around for his final year of arbitration, presumably in a fourth outfield capacity. The Yankees also announced that they have a deal with righty JT Brubaker, though figures haven’t been reported. He was projected for a salary of $2.275MM, the same figure he made in 2023 and 2024, two seasons he missed while recovering from Tommy John surgery.
  • The Rockies reached deals with outfielder Sam Hilliard and lefty reliever Lucas Gilbreath, Feinsand reports (on X). Hilliard gets $1MM, while Gilbreath signed for $785K. Both figures come in shy of the respective $1.7MM and $900K projections. Hilliard popped 10 home runs over 58 games as a depth outfielder. Gilbreath only made three appearances after missing the entire ’23 season to Tommy John surgery. He posted a 4.19 ERA across 43 innings two years ago.

Earlier Agreements

  • The Dodgers and right-hander Tony Gonsolin have agreed to a $5.4MM salary for 2025, per Robert Murray of FanSided (X link), an exact match for his projection. He had signed a two-year, $6.65MM deal to cover the 2023 and 2024 seasons. He made 20 starts for the Dodgers in the first year of that pact but he missed all of 2024 recovering from Tommy John surgery.
  • The Guardians and Sam Hentges have agreed to a $1.337MM deal, according to Robert Murray of FanSided. That’s right in line with his projected $1.4MM salary. The left-hander has been an effective reliever for Cleveland over the past three seasons (2.93 ERA, 2.82 SIERA, 138 IP), but he missed the latter half of 2024 with a shoulder injury. After undergoing surgery in September, he will miss the entire 2025 season.
  • The Orioles and infielder Emmanuel Rivera agreed to a $1MM deal, reports Mark Feinsand of MLB.com. He’d been projected at $1.4MM. He hit .238/.312/.343 this year.
  • Right-hander Brock Stewart and the Twins agreed to a one-year deal worth $870K, MLBTR has learned. He’d been projected at $800K. Stewart, who missed much of the season due to injury, can earn another $30K via incentives. He’s been lights-out for the Twins when healthy over the past two seasons (2.28 ERA, 33.5 K%, 10.8 BB%). Minnesota and righty Michael Tonkin also agreed to a $1MM deal, tweets Jon Heyman of the New York Post. He’d been projected at $1.5MM. The Twins later announced that they had reached deals with Stewart, Tonkin and righty Justin Topa. Hewas projected for $1.3MM next year but will come in just shy of that in terms of guarantee. Per Bobby Nightengale of the Star Tribune (Bluesky link), it’s a $1.225MM guarantee in the form of a $1MM salary and then a $225K buyout on a $2MM club option for 2026.
  • The Padres and Tyler Wade agreed to a one-year deal worth $900K, Heyman tweets. There’s a club option for an additional season. Wade, who hit .217/.285/.239 in 2024, was projected for that same $900K figure.
  • Infielder Santiago Espinal and the Reds settled on a one-year deal at $2.4MM, Heyman tweets. That’s well shy of his $4MM projection and actually represents a slight pay cut after Espinal hit .246/.295/.356 for Cincinnati.
  • The Rangers and righty Dane Dunning agreed to a one-year deal worth $2.66MM, Heyman reports. It’s a 19% cut after Dunning struggled to a 5.31 ERA in 95 innings this past season. He was projected at $4.4MM.
  • The Giants and right-hander Austin Warren agreed to terms on a one-year deal, reports Justice de los Santos of the San Jose Mercury News. He missed most of the season recovering from Tommy John surgery but returned late with 10 2/3 innings of two-run ball out of the bullpen.
  • The Brewers announced that they’ve signed catcher/outfielder Eric Haase to a one-year deal for the upcoming season. ESPN’s Jesse Rogers reports that the deal guarantees Haase $1.35MM with the chance to earn more via incentives. He’d been projected for a $1.8MM salary. Haase will fill the backup catcher role in Milwaukee next season. He’s controllable through the 2027 season.
  • The Dodgers and right-hander Dustin May settled at $2.135MM, per Fabian Ardaya of The Athletic (X link). That’s the exact same salary he had in 2024. May will be looking to bounce back after spending all of this year on the injured list.
  • The Phillies and right-hander José Ruiz settled at $1.225MM, per Robert Murray of FanSided (X link). That’s slightly above his $1.2MM projection. The righty can also unlock a $20K bonus for pitching in 30 games and $25K for pitching in 40. He made 52 appearances for the Phils in 2024 with a 3.71 ERA. Philadelphia also announced agreement with backup catcher Garrett Stubbs on a one-year deal. The Phils did not reveal the salary figure. Stubbs hit .207 in 54 games this year.
  • The Tigers and infielder/outfielder Zach McKinstry agreed to a $1.65MM salary for 2025, per Robert Murray of FanSided (hat tip to Evan Petzold of the Detroit Free Press on X). That’s slightly ahead of his $1.3MM projection. He hit .215/.277/.337 this year while stealing 16 bases and playing each position except or first base and catcher,

Julian Merryweather To Undergo Knee Surgery

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Cubs right-hander Julian Merryweather will be undergoing knee surgery tomorrow, says manager Craig Counsell. As relayed by Meghan Montemurro of the Chicago Tribune on X, it will be a right patellar tendon debridement. The skipper says Merryweather is expected to be ready by Spring Training. The pitcher himself says the rehab process will take three months, per Bruce Levine of WSCR-AM on X.

Merryweather seemed to develop into a key bullpen arm for the Cubs last year, as he tossed 72 innings with a 3.38 earned run average. His 11.9% walk rate was on the high side but he punched out 32.3% of batters faced. He moved into a leverage role for the club, securing two saves and 17 holds.

He wasn’t able to carry that over into 2024. He missed over three months due to a rib stress fracture and landed on the IL a second time last month due to right knee tendinitis, with the latter issue now requiring season-ending surgery. Around those ailments, he tossed 15 innings with a 6.60 ERA. There was probably some bad luck in there, as his .375 batting average on balls in play and 63.3% strand rate this year were both on the unfortunate side, but his strikeout rate also plummeted to 18.9%.

The righty has always been a tantalizing arm thanks to his high 90s velocity, but health has often been an obstacle. The Blue Jays acquired him from Cleveland as the return for Josh Donaldson in 2018, though Merryweather was recovering from undergoing Tommy John surgery earlier that year. He made his big league debut in 2020 but has since gone on the injured list for right elbow tendinitis, a left oblique strain and a left abdominal strain. The 2023 season is the only one in which he’s been able to throw at least 27 innings.

Merryweather reached arbitration for the first time last winter. He and the Cubs agreed to a salary of $1.175MM for 2024. He’ll be due a raise for next year but it won’t be huge, on account of his limited workload this year. He could also be retained via arbitration for 2026, before he’s slated to reach free agency. He’ll turn 33 years old next month.

Latest On Cubs’ Deadline Plans

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The Cubs swung perhaps the most shocking trade of the summer so far today when they acquired third baseman Isaac Paredes from the Rays in exchange for young slugger Christopher Morel, relief prospect Hunter Bigge, and pitching prospect Ty Johnson. Paredes, as one of the best hitters available this summer, was rumored to be of interest to a number of win-now clubs such as the Dodgers, Yankees, and Mariners, but instead ended up in Chicago with a club that’s just 51-56 last year and recently saw its president of baseball operations admit the club was prioritizing the future with its approach to this year’s deadline.

The addition of Paredes, who is controllable through the end of the 2027 season, doesn’t necessarily go against that stated ethos. The same can be said for the club’s acquisition of Blue Jays reliever Nate Pearson, who is controlled through the end of the 2026 campaign. It appears the Cubs may be interested in adding pieces that aren’t set to remain with the club long-term, however, as Jon Heyman of the New York Post suggested this afternoon that the Cubs are among the teams showing interest in Giants lefty Blake Snell. The reigning NL Cy Young award winner got off to a rough start this year but has begun to right the ship in recent weeks, leading The Athletic’s Ken Rosenthal to suggest yesterday that teams view Snell as likely to opt out of the remainder of his contract at season’s end.

That reported interest in Snell is somewhat surprising, particularly given the fact that the Cubs have seemingly been fielding interest on veteran right-hander Jameson Taillon in recent weeks. The starting rotation has been an undeniable strength for the Cubs this year, as their 3.72 rotation ERA ranks 6th in the majors thanks primarily to elite performances from Taillon, Justin Steele, and Shota Imanaga. While adding a pitcher of Snell’s caliber would surely bolster the club’s rotation and could even allow the club to deal Taillon without suffering a short-term dip in production, the fact that clubs seemingly view Snell as more likely than not to head back to free agency this fall seems to directly contradict the club’s stated plan to focus on the future this summer.

Regardless of what the Cubs’ plans are regarding Taillon or a possible pursuit of Snell, Sahadev Sharma of The Athletic reported prior to today’s trade for Paredes that the Cubs are “listening” to offers regarding almost anyone on the roster but are focusing on trying to trade from their bullpen mix. Per Sharma, four relief arms in particularly are most frequently brought up by contenders interested in dealing with the Cubs over the coming days: right-handers Hector Neris, Julian Merryweather, and Mark Leiter Jr. as well as southpaw Drew Smyly. Of the quartet, Sharma suggests that veterans Smyly and Neris are the most likely to move, as each could become a free agent at season’s end.

Neris, who has posted an uneven season with a 3.68 ERA and 4.54 FIP this year, has a $9MM team option in his contract that will convert into a $9MM player option in the event that he reaches either 60 appearances or 45 games finished this year. With 39 appearances and 27 games finished so far this year, both benchmarks are within the realm of possibility, and Sharma suggests that this aspect of his contract “complicates” the possibility of a trade. Smyly, who sports a 2.79 ERA and 4.52 FIP in 38 2/3 innings of work this year, has a much less complicated contractual situation; his contract comes with a $10MM mutual option that is certain to be declined by one side or the other in favor of a $2.5MM buyout.

While Neris and Smyly seem unlikely to command massive returns, The Athletic’s Patrick Mooney, Will Sammon, and Katie Woo recently discussed the hefty price tags that have come with controllable relievers this season. Mooney, Sammon, Woo, and Sharma all believe that the Cubs intend to deal Leiter and Merryweather only if they can leverage that sellers’ market for cost-controlled relief arms, with Sharma noting that the asking price is “high” for Leiter in particular. The 33-year-old’s 4.37 ERA this year is unspectacular, but his massive 34.5% strikeout rate, a sparkling 2.18 FIP, and the fact that he can be controlled through the end of the 2026 season all could make him a very appealing addition for contenders in search of relief help. As for Merryweather, the 32-year-old has been injured much of this year but is now healthy, sports a 3.33 ERA and 3.44 FIP since joining the Cubs prior to the 2023 campaign, and comes with the same two additional season of club control that Leiter does.

Another consideration for the Cubs, whether they’re adding or subtracting from the current roster, figures to be the luxury tax. Chicago currently sports a luxury tax payroll of just under $234MM according to RosterResource, a figure that puts them a little more than $3MM under the first threshold of the luxury tax. The addition of a player with a hefty salary like Snell would surely put them well beyond that threshold, while dealing a player like Taillon or even a less expensive relief arm like Neris or Smyly would likely offer the Cubs additional breathing room below the tax threshold. Given the fact that Cubs chairman Tom Ricketts suggested back in February that the “natural” place for the club’s payroll to land was right up against the tax threshold, it would be something of a shock for ownership to greenlight spending beyond the luxury tax in a year where the club evidently is not expecting to make the postseason.

Luke Little Suffers “Likely” Season-Ending Lat Strain

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July 22: The Cubs today transferred Little to the 60-day injured list, per Meghan Montemurro of the Chicago Tribune on X. His roster spot goes to righty Julian Merryweather who has been reinstated from his own stint on the 60-day IL. Righty Hunter Bigge was optioned to make room for Merryweather on the active roster.

July 20: Cubs left-hander Luke Little was placed on the injured list with a left shoulder strain prior to the All-Star break last week, and today manager Craig Counsell told reporters (including Patrick Mooney of The Athletic) that the injury is “likely” to end the youngster’s season.

It’s a brutal development for the 23-year-old rookie, who has generally looked excellent since making his debut with the club back in September of last year. Chicago’s fourth-round pick from the 2020 draft, Little has posted a 2.76 ERA (158 ERA+) with a 3.61 FIP in 32 2/3 innings of work at the big league level to this point in his young career and has flashed the sort of high-end talent that could make him a potential high leverage arm for the Cubs in the future.

The hard throwing lefty averages more than 96mph on his fastball and has struck out a strong 28.8% of batters faced in the majors so far, but has to this point been held back by control issues. Little has walked an excessive 15.8% of opponents to this point in his career, including 16.5% this season. While his ability to avoid giving up homers (he’s allowed just one in his career to this point) has allowed him to post strong results in spite of that lack of control, his 4.29 xFIP and 4.19 SIERA both suggest that his current production isn’t entirely sustainable unless he can curtail his wildness.

Even with those potential red flags in his profile, the loss of Little is still a devastating blow for the Cubs. Chicago’s bullpen has been shaky all season due to injuries to their primary high-leverage duo of Adbert Alzolay and Julian Merryweather, which forced the likes of Hector Neris and Mark Leiter Jr. into more prominent roles. While strong performances from internal youngsters like Little and Porter Hodge as well as savvy external pickups like Tyson Miller and Jorge Lopez have helped to steady the Chicago relief corps’s production in recent weeks, only the Rockies and White Sox have blown more saves than the Cubs’ 18.

The news regarding Little figures to further tax a bullpen that also lost right-hander Hayden Wesneski to the 15-day injured list today, although Counsell told reporters (including Mooney) that the club believes that Wesneski’s forearm issue is not serious and that he’ll be back on the mound in Chicago fairly quickly. The righty has pitched crucial innings for the Cubs while swinging between the bullpen and the rotation this year and sports a 3.96 ERA (albeit with a lackluster 4.72 FIP) across 61 2/3 innings of work this season.

The continued stacking of bullpen injuries makes the relief corps an obvious place for improvement ahead of the trade deadline on July 30, but the Cubs haven’t made their plans for this deadline clear and entered today with a 47-53 record that places them dead last in the NL Central and 4.5 games out of an NL Wild Card spot. Should the Cubs opt to stand pat or even sell short-term assets such as Neris and veteran lefty Drew Smyly, the club will be left to hope that the likes of Merryweather and Alzolay can return healthy later this year and provide a boost while youngsters such as Hodge and Hunter Bigge step up to handle meaningful innings.

Cubs’ Yency Almonte To Undergo Season-Ending Shoulder Surgery

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7:18 pm: Almonte has chosen to undergo shoulder surgery, reports Robert Murray of FanSided. The Cubs reliever is expected miss the rest of the 2024 season.

12:28 pm:Yency Almonte hasn’t pitched since May 7 due to a right shoulder strain, and continued discomfort in his shoulder has led to a possible crossroads in how the Cubs right-hander plans to deal with the injury.  Manager Craig Counsell told reporters (including Meghan Montemurro of the Chicago Tribune) that Almonte recently received a less-than-positive second opinion on his ailing shoulder, and is “thinking about what to do here” in possibly pursuing surgery.  For now, Almonte has been shut down from throwing while he recovers and decides on his next step.

The exact nature of the surgery isn’t yet known, but it would almost certainly seem that Almonte would miss the rest of the 2024 season, and could potentially be facing an absence of up to a year, based on timelines of more serious shoulder-related procedures undergone by other pitchers in the past.  Whatever the case, it’s a tough outcome for Almonte, who was posting some solid numbers before going on the IL.

Acquired from the Dodgers alongside Michael Busch last January, Almonte had a 3.45 ERA over 15 2/3 innings and 17 appearances for the Cubs.  His 11.9% walk rate was on the high side and Almonte was benefiting from a .222 BABIP, but a 29.9% strikeout rate and just one homer allowed in those 15 2/3 frames.  After relying heavily on a sweeper in 2022-23, Almonte was using his sinker and sweeper in more or less equal measure this season, which also helped set up his 94mph fastball.

Analytics aside, Almonte’s 2024 success could’ve also perhaps been inevitable because it is an even year.  The right-hander has yo-yo’d between good and bad years throughout his seven MLB seasons, with the trend of quality numbers in the even years and struggles in the odd years.  Case in point, Almonte’s Dodgers tenure included an 1.02 ERA in 35 1/3 innings in 2022, followed up by a 5.06 ERA over 48 innings with Los Angeles in 2023 before a knee sprain ended his season in mid-August.

Unfortunately, the injury bug now seems to have thrown a wrench into Almonte’s usual career pattern.  He was already moved off the Cubs’ 40-man roster when he was shifted to the 60-day IL last week.  The Cubs have another year of arbitration control over Almonte for the 2025 season, and while a non-tender is certainly possible depending on his health status, Chicago might still issue him a contract since Almonte would receive only a minimal raise on his $1.9MM salary for 2024.

Almonte is one of five relievers on the Cubs’ injured list, and relief pitching was already an issue for Chicago even before such a big chunk of the bullpen was sidelined.  On the positive side, Counsell and pitching coach Tommy Hottovy recently told MLB.com and other media that Julian Merryweather is nearing a minor league rehab assignment, and Mark Leiter Jr. threw a 30-pitch bullpen session Wednesday and might be able to return next week without going on a rehab stint.

Cubs’ Adbert Alzolay Shut Down For At Least Two More Weeks

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Cubs righty Adbert Alzolay has been on the injured list since May 13 due to a flexor strain, and it seems a return in the near future isn’t likely. Manager Craig Counsell told the team’s beat yesterday that Alzolay, who recently received a second opinion on the injury, will be shut down entirely for at least two more weeks (X link via Meaghan Montemurro of the Chicago Tribune). A lengthier shutdown is possible, but he’ll be reevaluated in 14 days to gauge any progress. For the time being, surgery is not a consideration.

The 29-year-old Alzolay was easily the Cubs’ top reliever in 2023, pacing the team with 22 saves and leading their qualified relievers with a 2.67 earned run average. The former top prospect punched out 26.5% of his opponents against a sharp 5.1% walk rate. Alzolay got out to a much rockier start in 2024, logging a 4.67 ERA in 17 1/3 innings as his strikeout and walk rates swung dramatically in the wrong direction (17.3% and 8%, respectively).

Given those struggles and what increasingly looks like a lengthy stay on the injured list, it’s fair to presume Alzolay wasn’t pitching at full strength prior to his IL placement. His sinker lost a full mile per hour from last year (95.3 mph to 94.3 mph), and his four-seamer is down just over a half mile as well, checking in at 94.7 mph in ’24 after sitting 95.3 mph in ’23, per Statcast.

It’s tough for any team to lose its top reliever, of course, but it’s particularly troublesome for a Cubs bullpen that has ranked in the bottom half of MLB in most categories. Chicago relievers are 20th in baseball with a 4.15 ERA, and fielding-independent metrics grade them similarly (17th in FIP at 3.92, 15th in SIERA at 3.63). The bullpen does collectively have the eighth-best strikeout rate of any relief corps in MLB (24.4%) … but also the eighth-highest walk rate (10.3%).

Further complicating matters is the fact that righty Julian Merryweather, one of the team’s top setup men and top strikeout arms last season, is already on the 60-day injured list due to a stress fracture in his ribcage. Counsell indicated this week that Merryweather has been cleared to resume throwing but also noted that his IL stint will exceed the 60-day minimum (X link via Ryan Herrera of CHGO Sports). That’ll push him into mid-June in a best-case scenario. However, with Merryweather only just starting a throwing program and needing to build toward facing live hitters before an eventual minor league rehab assignment, it’s feasible his IL stint could stretch to late June or even into July.

With Alzolay and Merryweather shelved, Hector Neris and Mark Leiter Jr. are the only two members of the Cubs’ bullpen with any late-inning experience of note in the majors. Neris signed a one-year, $9MM deal over the winter and currently sports a 2.50 ERA but also a career-worst 17% walk rate. Leiter has been excellent, continuing to make good on the jackpot the Cubs hit in minor league free agency a few years back. Beyond that pairing, things get far murkier.

The only other member of the Cubs’ bullpen with even two years of MLB service is Kyle Hendricks, who was just dropped to a relief role after struggling immensely in the rotation. Righties Hayden Wesneski and Jose Cuas are the next-most “senior” members of the unit. Each entered the season with just over a year of service time, and both have been optioned at least once this season. The Cubs are hopeful that recently reacquired Tyson Miller can fill a late-inning role, and they’re giving looks to homegrown rookies like Porter Hodge and Luke Little as well. But the bullpen as a whole is quite light on established arms, exacerbating the impact of losing two of last year’s top relievers.

The Cubs still find themselves just 1.5 games back of the Brewers from the division lead. They’re 3.5 games up on a surging Cardinals club, with Pittsburgh only a half-game behind St. Louis. The Reds sit eight games back of the division lead — a notable but also hardly insurmountable deficit with so much of the season yet to play out. Given Chicago’s active offseason — bringing in Shota Imanaga, re-signing Cody Bellinger, signing Neris, trading for Michael Busch — the front office will likely be looking to add to the roster so long as the team remains within striking distance in what’s currently a wide-open division. Every postseason hopeful tends to be on the lookout for relief pitching come deadline season, but the Cubs’ need is shaping up to be more acute than most contenders.

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