3:04pm: Ryu will indeed accept the qualifying offer, Fancred Sports’ Jon Heyman tweets.
12:01pm: Left-hander Hyun-Jin Ryu is “most likely” going to accept the one-year, $17.9MM qualifying offer issued to him by the Dodgers, MLB.com’s Mark Feinsand (Twitter link) hears from a source, though nothing has been finalized as of yet. The seven free agents who have qualifying offers pending have until 4pm CT today to accept or decline the one-year contracts.
Of those seven names, Ryu was the only one who seemed like a realistic candidate to accept the QO, given his significant injury history. Separate surgeries on Ryu’s shoulder and elbow cost him all of the 2015 season and limited him to just a single game in 2016, and a torn groin sidelined Ryu for almost three months of the 2018 campaign. The southpaw also had DL stints for more minor hip and foot issues in 2017.
These health concerns surely would’ve impacted Ryu’s stock on the free agent market, plus rejecting the qualifying offer would’ve meant that Ryu’s next team would’ve had to surrender draft picks and potentially international signing pool funds in order to sign him. The QO, Ryu’s health history, and his age (he turns 32 in March) all factored into a relatively modest placement for the left-hander on MLBTR’s Top 50 Free Agents list — Ryu was ranked 20th, with a projected three-year, $33MM contract (from the Dodgers).
If he does end up accepting the qualifying offer, Ryu would lock in a big payday for 2019 that is worth more than half of that $33MM projection. The $17.9MM salary, in fact, would represent just under half of Ryu’s entire Major League earnings to this point, as he originally signed a six-year, $36MM contract with Los Angeles for over the 2013-18 seasons. He’ll get another opportunity to prove that he can remain healthy over a full season, while doing so in a familiar environment of Dodger Stadium and playing for a contending team. Ryu is also ineligible to ever receive another qualifying offer in any future trips into the free agent market, and thus wouldn’t have any further draft pick/international money compensation attached to his services.
From the Dodgers’ perspective, committing $17.9MM to an oft-injured starter is something of a risk, considering that the team already has several rotation options in Clayton Kershaw, Walker Buehler, Rich Hill, Ross Stripling, Kenta Maeda, and Alex Wood (not to mention youngsters like Brock Stewart or Caleb Ferguson). Starting pitching depth has been a centerpiece of the Dodgers’ success, however, as the team has dealt with injuries to virtually all of its starters over the last few years. Even in the unlikely event that all of these arms stay healthy, the Dodgers could still deploy the excess pitchers in the bullpen — Wood, Stripling, and Maeda all spent time as relievers down the stretch last season.
Furthermore, Ryu pitched so well in 2018 that the Dodgers felt a one-year, $17.9MM investment was worth seeing if the lefty could stay healthy and duplicate his performance. Ryu posted a 1.97 ERA, 5.93 K/BB rate, and 9.7 K/9 over 82 1/3 innings last season, with a 90.2 mph average fastball that was in line with his pre-surgery velocity. There also wasn’t much batted-ball luck baked into Ryu’s numbers, as his wOBA and xwOBA were a perfect match (.268).
Ryu would become the sixth free agent to ever accept a qualifying offer, of the 80 who have been issued the one-year deals since the QO system was introduced for the 2012-13 offseason. Ryu’s situation bears a lot of similarities to that of Brett Anderson, whose own lengthy injury history also factored into his decision to accept a qualifying offer from the Dodgers following the 2015 season rather than test free agency.
Why wouldn’t he take the offer? Much more than any team would give him on the FA market. He has had injury issues. The surprise is why the dodgers gave him a QO knowing his injury issues.
Pitching is priceless, look at offers they give to guys fresh off Tj, decent base loaded with incentives. If healthy this is good deal for both.
I dont think you realize how valuable good SPs are. It will be more per year than another offer, but there would be teams out there that would pay him more than 17.9 over a contract easy
He would still be an FA at the end of the year.
If he stays healthy (big IF there), then he will get much more next year.
AND LA can not offer a qualifying offer again……
Actually, the Dodgers can’t. It only happens once if accepted.
Doesn’t matter if it’s accepted or not
Once am offered is rendered no one else can
I can’t think of a starter coming off TJS received a multi year deal more than $18 million a season. Now if he pitches next year at the same high level with over 150 innings pitched he will receive a big pay day much bigger than anything he would get this year.
It’s not about getting $18M per year. If he could find 3/$33M, that’s arguably better than 1/$18M. Larger guarantee in case he blows out early again next year. It doesn’t seem like that $30-35M is out there though.
Ryu has never had Tommy John surgery.
I’m wrong. He had it in ‘04 while still in Korea.
Name one because not one team would give a pitcher who can’t stay healthy or even pitch 100 innings in a season $17.9 mil per year and give up a draft pick as well.
Do you know how to read? My whole point was he would not get that PER YEAR
Easy my cubs signed Darvish 🙂
No team would’ve given Ryu $17.9M/year but teams would’ve lined up to give him a multi year contract for a total greater than $17.9M.
He’ll still get that same deal next year. In the meantime, he gets to attempt to put together a full season in a ballpark that took two runs off Greinke’s career ERA. Still need to see the Dodgers trade for Kluber, Carrasco or Teheran.
Because for a team with enormously deep pockets $17m for the possibility of another 1.97era campaign is a no brainer
You can look at 1.97 ERA in a vacuum. Or a Starting Pitcher who’s averaged 53 innings per season over last 4 years.
Im not disagreeing with Dodgers gamble, but lets face it, Ryu is getting the better end of the deal. He gets to reestablish his market over the next year, while still receiving a great payout.
It’s basically mutually beneficial. Ryu gets to basically reset his market while the Dodgers get another year of Ryu. Which basically allows the likes of Urias, Santana, and Ferguson to get stretched out and not have to be instantly inserted.
Not surprising to me.
Brett Anderson 2.0
but better
Good for both sides, I think. A one year deal isn’t going to hurt the Dodgers much – Ryu really only needs to be a 2 ish WAR guy to break even on the dollars (depending on which estimator you use).
He looked really good coming back this year – ace like, in fact.
Just be a bad contract.
Fortunately, there are varying degrees of “bad”.
There’s no such thing as a bad one year contract.
how bout a 20 mil one year deal to someone who is out for the year from the first game.
Thats like 20 mil in the trash
It’s a calculated gamble. Fact of the matter is there is no long term commitment or excessive weight anchoring a roster. It’s a terrible hypothetical in terms of an injury, but honestly it doesn’t change much in the grand scheme of things. 20 M is a drop in the bucket for owners. So begrudging a player who essentially threw well enough or played well enough to obtain a QO seems a little overboard. Especially when you’re probably receiving extreme excess value from a couple of players who are making league minimum. And if you don’t or aren’t, it probably means you’re team is old and aging or just not very good, means you probably have more issues than 20 M in the trash.
it is a very expensive insurance policy that the Dodgers have plenty of starting pitching and the Dodgers can afford it and that is why they offered the qualifying offer to begin with…..there IS a reason they have made the playoffs 6 years in a row, depth.
Translation: highest payroll in mlb.
Nope! Mommas wrong again.
Try again?
Old time baseball quote there are no bad 1 year contracts
Makes sense, but I think he could have gotten a multi-year deal from a team like the Athletics, Brewers, or Braves.
I think a team like Atl would have stayed away due to the qualifying offer! They have to hit on pretty much every draft pick due to their international sanctions. So giving a pick up for a player could hurt a lot in the future.
I know prospects are just that, but Atl has to be able to refill the ranks over the next several years.
Completely forgot about the QO rule when I wrote this, not going to lie. Still think he’d get offered at least 2/24 at most 3/30 if he hit the open market.
Chatwood got 3/38.
No way Ryu would get 3/30 lol
If he pitches poorly next season (or even if he doesn’t pitch at all) he will still get an offer of at least 2/13 next year matching your 3/30 projection. If he enjoys LA at all this benefits him unless he thinks he can get 4/45 or more in FA.
Ryu is way better than Chatwood.
Rut can’t stay healthy and has a QO attached to him.
Atlanta should trade Teheran to the Dodgers for Puig who will be out of a job as soon as Bryce Harper finalizes his deal
Lol
A multi yr of 2/18. It’s not like other teams were salivating for Ryu and his 100 innings a yr he pitches.
Just like not many teams were salivating for Chatwood but that didn’t stop the Cubs.
isn’t 3 years called a multi-year deal
Dodgers love pitchers with injury history….
This would be good for both player and team. Ryu returned from his shoulder injury, strong. He’ll be removed from that injury by a year and all factors point to his complete recovery. $18m is dirt cheap if he can notch 15 wins and sub 3.5 era as I expect him to do.
Ryu averages a little over a 100 innings a year. 1 yr at 18 mill. Is far from a bargain for that fatty gimp.
How is the 3/38 bargain that Chatwood signed working out for your cubbies?
Minus the injury years he a 140-150 innings guy who should win 10-12. Crazy as that seems it’s pretty close to 18 mil nowadays.
Ryu was really good His first 2 years and could be way better His first year if Belisario didnt allow alot of his inherited runners score if in 2019 He can get 150 innings and 3.5 era could be worth it. I think a lot of Dodgers fans think He was underpaid in His 6 year contract
Likely to accept? Fire your agent, if he advises you to decline.
I’m sure he would at least get offered 2/24 if he hit the open market though. Maybe he had seconds thoughts about accepting because he wouldn’t like the stress of constantly pitching in a contract year.
Still a 1/18 deal is much better than a 2/24 if you are healthy.
But you have to wonder: even with a productive season next year how much would he really get as a FA next year? Sale, Bumgarner, Verlander, Alex Wood, all FA SPs next year. Even guys like Arenado and Goldschmidt will be causing teams to spend money elsewhere with the FA class. The pressure is on for him to perform in 2019 otherwise he may not get too much as a FA.
How is 18 better than 24? Though I believe his minimum would’ve been 2/30. People always look at AAV only. If he got a 2/24-30, that’s 24-30 guaranteed over only 18 guaranteed. However it’s spread out, it’s still more money he’s gonna get.
Agreed Arc89…Ryu will hit the market next year (age 33) hopefully after a good season and rake in a 3 or 4 year deal. He’s taking $18m of someone else’s money and betting on himself. I’ll hedge on Ryu, as the Dodgers are also.
No way he gets 3 or 4 years next year unless he pitches in the 2-2.5 era margin, which is doubtful.
He won’t have a QO next year. A lot of those pitchers will.
Only more money if he falls off a cliff and no one signs him next year. Do you honestly think there is any way aside from another TJS that he gets less than 2/12 next year?
He would easily get 3 years with a 3.00 ERA.
Rich Hill got 3/48 starting his age 37 season! Ryu will be 4 years younger and have similar results. It isn’t about what you think, it’s about what the market is willing to pay
If he has a season with a ERA under 4.00 and over 150 innings he will get a good contract. Not a real long deal but about a 4 to 5 year deal.
There’s literally no way anybody pays him for 4 years, let alone 5. You’re insane. Teams know that pifchers going into their 30s (which ryu is already in, and will turn 33 soon), will decline. I’d say 150 innings of around 3 era ball gives him 3/55 at MOST next year. Anything worse than that just cuts his paycheck.
Ryu is better than Wood right now, I would rather pay Ryu 18 million than wood 9 Million.
1/18 is much better than 2/24. Unless he has zero confidence in himself or thinks he’s damaged goods.
Update: He accepted. No-brainer! Lucky plays for $$ LA
He’ll for sure take the QO. It made zero sense that it was offered to that tubby.
If you follow the Dodgers you know that his looks are deceiving. He’s quite a good athlete and a good hitter.
That “tubby” is a better athlete, makes more money and is obviously a better person than you are.
Well said!
Except for the fact that they’ll be able to slot him into the 3-4 hole when he’d probably be a 2 on most teams…
Ryu is likely the only player to accept the QO. Pollock probably will think hard about accepting the QO, but probably opts for the long term security of a FA k for his age 31+ seasons…particularly w/ his lengthy injury history. 5pm EST deadline.
If Ryu can pitch at the level he did this past season he’s worth it. But that’s a big “IF”
With all this talk about his “health history,” it is worth noting that Ryu has never (to my knowledge) been down with the same injury twice. Chronic issues are the big red flags. A bunch of random stuff does not point to any obvious chronic medical issues. More like a history of bad luck.
That’s a very good point.
I agree to an extent, but he missed much of two years with surgeries on his throwing arm. I don’t think that means he’s got ‘chronic’ problems, per se, but that’s still gotta be at least moderately concerning to potential suitors. The groin tear I’d be less worried about, though.
Moderately seems about right, but any controlling medical concerns are going to be based on a history of chronic issues, not acute injuries that aren’t repeated, let alone “he’s always hurt.” No doctor worth their salt would make such a vague diagnosis, so maybe we should not either.
For sure. I’m neither advocating that nor am I a doctor. My only point is it’s certainly not a good thing that he’s had to repair his labrum and elbow in recent years.
I also think it’s kind of overblown anyways. The Dodgers (and most other teams) don’t prioritize mediocre volume over stellar rate production anyways. Unlike our fat-shaming troll friend from above, I think the Dodgers would happily sign up for 110 innings with a sub- 3.00 at $18M.
Ryu is capable of pitching 180 or more innings, he just hasn’t had many opportunities. But for sure these days $18M is not much more than journeyman money for a starter and Ryu has always pitched way better than average when he wasn’t recovering from some injury or another.
He sure doesn’t appear to have a body type for baseball (official weight, 250), but that’s just the thing about the game, many don’t, especially pitchers. If you are old enough you will remember when David Letterman called Terry Forster a “fat tub of goo.” Though it was meant as a joke Letterman apologized and later had Forster on his show.
Agreed. Pitchers who have suffered shoulder injuries or back injuries and continue to have issues with those same areas are the ones teams need to be leery of.
as far as potential pitching strenghth you have omitted Julio Urias.
And Dennis Santana. Brock Stewart is probably done with the Dodgers as he has no more options left.
This puts the Dodgers $10M short of the luxury threshold. So, if it’s true that they wanna stay under that, this concludes their offseason, and we should hear from them next when Spring Training starts.
Until they start churning. This roster won’t remain static and they can easy shed and improve. So quit the opposite you’ll see a ton of activity from now and ST.
Ryu also adds some value with the Bat. 0.5 WAR there if healthy.
Yup, I am surprised Ryu hasn’t hit a homer yet in his career. His swings don’t look like much but he makes remarkably hard contact.
Will the Dodgers take Wei Yin Chen and $5 million for him?
That’s a solid no. Ryu is still a good productive pitcher.
They would have had to spend way more than 18 to get legitimate starting pitching. You can never have too many starters and it’s possible they move Wood or Stripling for a 2b or C?
Ryu would have been crazy not to take this offer. 18 million, playoff team and if he hits 150+ innings he will get paid next season.
Not really related but
Acuna for Soto and Scherzer. LOL jk wouldnt do it as a brave fan
What you guys think though
Nats would laugh and hang up.
Scherzer is not under contract much longer and Acuna is better than Soto, its not that crazy
nvm i didnt know how long his contract was
Acuna has a higher ceiling but I think Soto is a better bet to be good more often and for a longer time.
This was a good move for both. He was the Dodgers best pitcher for a while this year and looked like he was getting stronger as the season went on. LA has the largest Korean American population too so its comfy/beneficial for both sides.
If he has a nice 2019, he gets more mlb years from some team. If he has a subpar year, he can go back to Korea and make even more. Plus, he’s a huge celebrity there and can do more TV and endorsements.
Dodger fans love him because he’s fun to watch, especially at the plate, or when fooling around with Puig.
I like this for both sides. If Ryu pitches well without injury, he’ll hit the market with no qualifying offer. And this gives the Dodgers a solid four of Buehler, Kershaw, Ryu and Hill, with Maeda, Wood, Stripling, Ferguson Urias or Stewart for the 5th spot, plus plenty of depth in case any of the other four get hurt.
I wonder if they’ll move one of the younger guys in a deal for a catcher or relievers.
Stewart is not a mlb sp option. Santana definitely is, but not Stewart. That’s been made pretty clear with his inability to show any consistency of an even get me over 3rd option. Plus he’s out of options. He’ll probably be out righted. I also think they churn Wood. So they basically are 9 deep. If Ferguson can get that 3rd offering to develop they might be sitting on some pretty great depth.
Pretty astute on your part Blue_Painted. I’m a high school varsity pitching coach and have said all along that Brock Stewart would be a top flight mlb pitcher if he could develop a consistent third pitch. He essentially tries to get by without an out pitch.
His health….grave concern. Quite a raise from $6 million per season to $17, almost $18 million.
Let’s face it. His agent has talked to GMs and has a pretty good idea what he would get on open market this year. And their conclusion is wait another year. If he performs at 3.00 era, he’s getting at least 3 years $45 M.
in surprised they gave him a QO in the first place. i think they shouldve just tried to sign a longer cheaper-by-the-year deal so they have less of a cap hit and Ryu would have a better sense of security maybe 3yrs/30 mil