12:37pm: MLB.com’s Jordan Bastian tweets that Cleveland won’t issue any qualifying offers. That means Brantley, Andrew Miller and Cody Allen will all reach free agency without the burden of draft compensation attached to them. The latter two were never really viewed as candidates for a QO, though each will be among the most intriguing relievers available this winter — even on the heels of a down season.
12:05pm: The Indians aren’t expected to issue a $17.9MM qualifying offer to left fielder Michael Brantley prior to this afternoon’s deadline, tweets Buster Olney of ESPN.com.
Brantley, 31, was a borderline case for a QO and may have received one were he on a team without such tight payroll constraints. The three-time All-Star bounced back from shoulder and ankle injuries in 2018 to post an excellent .309/.364/.468 batting line with 17 homers and a dozen steals in 631 plate appearances, marking his healthiest season since the 2014 campaign. He was amog the toughest players in the league to strike out, as he went down on strikes in just 9.5 percent of his plate appearances this past season.
Brantley’s ability with the bat has never been in question, but his durability has become a concern in recent seasons. “Dr. Smooth” averaged 148 games and 623 PAs per season from 2012-15 but suffered a shoulder injury that required surgery late in that 2015 campaign. He was limited to 11 games as a result the following season and was held to 91 games in 2017, due largely to a series of ankle issues.
Nonetheless, Brantley is a career .295/.351/.430 hitter and a .311/.371/.475 hitter dating back to a 2014 breakout that saw him finish third in American League MVP voting. The Indians, though, already project to carry what would be a club-record $145MM payroll for the 2019 season (including arbitration-eligible and pre-arb players) and likely didn’t feel comfortable risking nearly $18MM more on a player with Brantley’s injury history accepting that sizable one-year offer. Had he accepted, Brantley would’ve been ineligible to be traded without his consent until June 15 of next year.
The decision means that, barring a last-minute change of heart, Cleveland could lose Brantley to free agency without any form of draft-pick compensation. That’s not an ideal scenario for the Indians, though it’s a trickle-down effect of the recent success they’ve had atop the AL Central, as the franchise-record payroll is largely the product of investing heavily in Edwin Encarnacion and ponying up on contract extensions to retain aces Corey Kluber and Carlos Carrasco.
I know he’s been injury-prone but wouldn’t it be a win for the Indians if Brantley accepts or decline the QO? I feel it would be worth the accept.
Sure if you completely forgot teams have budgets.
This is one thing I don’t really like about the current system. The Indians simply can’t afford to take the gamble. They absolutely would want Brantley to decline and they can’t take the chance.
It’s true, and I by no means want to defend a system I find as flawed as the QO, but part of the reason they can’t do so now is because the very nature of the QO allowed them to be players for Edwin Encarnacion in the first place. Without a QO attached to him, Encarnacion probably would’ve been outside the Indians’ comfort zone/price range, and he’d have drawn interest from a wider base of teams to outbid Cleveland.
The QO has its flaws, as will virtually any scenario which somewhat arbitrarily ties free agency to the draft, but the system has previously helped them in a similar capacity to the one you describe.
There’s definitely flaws in both systems and I don’t have a solution.
With the benefit of hindsight I can make an argument that the current system hurt the Indians in both cases. The market for 1st base DH types only had plummeted. Saving that 20 mil a year by not having Edwin these last two years would have made a huge difference. While Edwin is a consistent 35 100 type guy let’s not act like that power is irreplaceable in this age where everyone seems to hit 25 HRs.
will be interesting to see what he gets on the open market
Brantley could be a great pick up for somebody this offseason….great player when healthy
No team is going to pay him over $10m a year
The Indians themselves just did that in 2018, and I’d wager that there are plenty of teams that’ll be happy to pay him in excess of $10MM on a multi-year deal. (Probably closer to 15MM annually than to 10)
But that isn’t enough money to make rejecting the QO worth it. I’d wager that those same teams would be happy to pay him 15 mil in 2020 as well, He’s really young.
which means he’d be best served accepting the QO unless he thinks that (a) his performance is due for a stark decline or (b) a team will pay him more than 19 mil per year today.
I see it as the right move to not QO Brantley.
Brantley is 31. That’s not “really young” in athlete terms.
Oh I dont know why I thought he was 27. But still. his market will be fine at 32.
In what world does taking 18 mil for this year only make more sense than accepting 45/48 mil over 3 years? Your guaranteed 30 more mil, if players and agents thought like that there would be far more players 1, accepting the QO which 95% decline and 2, more players would take shorter deals with higher aav but instead they prefer longer more guaranteed money.
A contract of, say, 3/45 trumps the QO because it’s security. For a player that has had injury problems, that security is like gold.
I agree about the security but it’s that injury history that I believe prevents him from getting anything more than a 2 yr offer.
I’m betting several will offer him much more than 10mil and probably for multiple seasons if there’s no pick attached to him.
He made $11 mil last year. I could easily see a 2/$30 year deal.
Besides Jay Bruce got 39 mil last year and while he didn’t have the injury concerns Brantley has, Brantley is a better overall player.
We know this ownership isn’t going to increase payroll much or at all but I still think it is a mistake to not raise the payroll for 19 and make a run for the world series. Alonso Kipnis and Edwin clear another 39 million in payroll after accounting for their buyouts on options for 20 and even with salary raises in the contracts and arbitration it will lower the payroll by 20-25 million. Bobby Bradley should be ready by then to take 1st and you can use the money and maybe some trades to fill the bullpen and outfield holes long term and extend the window of contention. They leave and next year your payroll is back where it was this year and you have a championship. Why not open the checkbook for a year to fill the holes and try to finally win?
Maybe if Cleveland’s attendance was higher, then they could raise the payroll. They didn’t even crack 2 million last season with a team loaded with exciting players on a multi-year contending team.
Indiansfan44 can you cite the example of increasing the payroll guarantees a championship. Frankly ownership should slash payroll until the fans pack the stadium every night. What are they saving their money for, not like the browns have won in any of their lifetimes. LeBron was gone in July and the Indians were a championship caliber team.
So you would be ok with ownership increasing payroll 20 mil this season if it meant deceasing it 40 mil next? Probably not right???
Maybe they shouldn’t have ripped about 8000 seats out of the park. Every summer weekend game was sold out or close to it.
It doesn’t guaranteed anything but subtracting from a team that couldn’t get past the ALDS 2 years in a row and not doing something to add to it and improve it is as close to a guarantee as you can get that they will get worse. I also pointed out the fact that they could increase it this year and with so much leaving in over priced players they would be back to around the same payroll as 18. Of course I don’t want to see the payroll drop but I know it will when the window of contention ends. Why not make the team an actual winner instead of settling for making the playoffs and getting swept. Maybe people would want to go to the games then.
I’m hoping the Yanks are looking at him. He’s an exact fit for the kind of hitter the Yanks need right now. A left-handed hitting LF who displays good contact hitting skils and can have a above average batting and OBP line with some power. My short-list of targets for LF would be in this order:
Harper-Markakis-Brantley.
Harper is a long-shot because I don’t want them to hand out anything above 8/$240 but I would me more than happy with one of the other two players.
I can’t imagine why on earth you would rank Markakis over Brantley. Curious about that. Markakis is way older and is a singles-hitting outfielder with no defensive or baserunning value.
Plus it would be a huge mistake to pay someone (i.e. Markakis) off of a career year that seems unlikely to ever be repeated
It wasn’t even a career year; it was a career 8 weeks; Markakis was not good at all in the second half.
Remember when the Astros gave Colby Rasmus a QO and he accepted it. That was pretty awesome.
His slash numbers are terrific. What’s missing is this…..
While he’s slowing some on D and has a weak arm (must stay in LF if he remains in the OF), he’s a solid fundamental player in all aspects of the game. He’s not a streaky hitter, his slumps are minimal. Most importantly, while his personality and play is low key, he’s conducts himself as a total professional at all times. He’s a joy to manage, a great teammate, and a mentor to young players.
I still think he would be better if moved to 1B. LH throwers have an edge there, and can turn games. He’d have less risk of injury playing there. A team like the Cardinals would be perfect for him.
One of the classiest players in MLB.
Seems like the right move. Brantley is a 50/50 bet at best to remain healthy for a whole year.
I’d much rather see them spend just a few less $$$ per year and get a similar, but much more reliable OF in McCutchen, or even a much cheaper option in Adam Jones.
Reality is though, the Tribe really needs to take a hard look at whether it makes sense to deal one of their Big 3 starters to get back a haul of prospects, plus at least one ML-ready OF. That is the only way the window stays open past 2019.
I’ll even throw out a random deal that both sides would like for various reasons:
To CUBS: Kluber and Kipnis
To INDIANS: Heyward, Carl Edwards Jr., Addison Russell, Adbert Azolay
Cubs also retain $8mm per year of Heyward’s contract.
Not sure how any of those players help the Indians, at least not in the present. Azolay is nice, but already significant injuries for a pitcher that isn’t proven is scary.
Right. Contending teams don’t trade their best pitcher.
So let me get this straight…for an ace and one of the best pitchers in baseball, the Indians would get rid of the final year of Kipnis’s contract (which would be more than negated by the albatross that Heyward is signed to), a decent reliever, a mediocre shortstop facing a lengthy suspension whose biggest value is playing the same position as their best player, and a wildly risky prospect.
I don’t have the words to suggest how bad of a trade that would be.
So the Indians upgrade their bullpen, take on an awful contract, get a mediocre SS with off field problems, and a prospect for their ace and a bearable contract?
Fine, fine, I stand corrected, but I think rating Kluber as the “Indians Best Pitcher” is way off and giving him credit for past years that are now behind him.
I’d contend that Carrasco is the true ace now of that staff and going forward, with Bauer not much different.
Heyward (with the Cubs paying down $8m year), plugs the giant gaping hole Cleveland has in RF for several years at a fair price, gives them a prospect that could have #1 stuff (or not, as all prospects are risky), rids them of Kipnis, but replaces him at 2B with Russell, who they can just non-tender if they choose, (so even swap there) and helps shore up the bullpen.
Seems reasonable to me, if you ignore the marquis name value of Kluber at first glance.
I agree with you about Carrasco and Bauer, but that still doesn’t change the fact that the Indians arent getting much back in the deal you proposed. Instead of Heyward and Kipnis in the deal maybe throw in Albert Almora or Ian Happ. Otherwise I don’t see it happening. And it’s already unrealistic because teams just don’t trade their “ace”
This is hilarious. Heyward’s contract is underwater; Edwards Jr., at his best, is a middle-reliever, Russell is a toxic, untradeable asset who would appear to be an awful human being, and Azolay isn’t even the Cubs’ best prospect. That’s a terrible trade for Cleveland.
I see him as a fit for the Giants.
The Mets should absolutely pounce on Cody Allen after a down season. He could be had for around $10-$12 million per season. Mets desperately need a Closer.
Why a below .500 team would ever need a closer and a expensive one at that is beyond me. If you don’t have someone in your system that throws hard and can saves games you don’t need to spend on free agents as it shows your scouting is horrendous.
It shows you know NOTHING about baseball. Yea, the Mets had a record below .500 for the year but finished the season going 38-30. They did that with no Cespedes, No Catcher, no Closer, worst bullpen in the NL and with players underperforming such as Jay Bruce. So yeah, if the Mets were to add a proven Closer, like Cody Allen, add a decent Catcher like Wilson Ramos, along with a steady 3rd baseman as well as another bullpen arm or two, the Mets will be a force in 2019. Stop being a hater and definitely stop trolling a message board with REAL baseball fans. Learn your statistics before coming at an intelligent fan of the game.
A very good chance Allen goes to the Mets to be fixed by Callahan.
But no way in the world would the Mets lay out $10mm for him.
It’s the right move for the Indians. $17.9M is a lot for a guy with a high injury risk, and I have a hard time seeing him getting more than that on the open market. I could be wrong about that though.
The teams with OF needs, and without payroll concerns, all seem like teams where Brantley would be worth a gamble.
…and who exactly is going to replace him?
Nobody can replace Dr. Smooth, but Greg Allen would be a logical choice if Leonys Martin is healthy enough to play CF.
Would you pay $18 million for the following?
.309 – 89 runs, 17 HR, 76 rbi , 3.5 WAR with a history of injuries and average defense?
Probably not. I love Brantley, but its not worth taking a chance on spending that money
They’re both very similar.
Markakis walks a bit more. (10% vs 8%)
Is much more durable (480 games in last 3 years vs 244 from Brantley)
Because he’s 35 I think he would take a shorter term contract whereas Brantley is probably looking at his list chance for a multi-year deal.
Plus Markakis has a history of raking at Yankee Stadium: 326/.382/.519 in 259 PA vs Brantley’s .243/.325/.357 in 80 PA.
Markakis just seems like a good fit if he can handle LF.
They both rate about the same in terms of power and contact skills. Markakis is much, much more durable than Brantley.
At this point his value is equal to Brett Gardener. No way does a team give him 17.9M for two years much less one. I expect him to get 8-10 on a one year deal or 15-16 on a two year deal.
Brantley,incentive laid end Contract because of injury history,would be a great deal!