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Rays Continuing To Explore Market For Offensive Help

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Rays president of baseball operations Erik Neander told reporters during his season-closing press conference back in October that the club wanted to add a big bat this winter — particularly of the left-handed-hitting variety — after Tampa Bay’s offense managed to score only one run over 24 innings in that marathon two-game Wild Card Series ouster versus the Guardians.

Rays hitters combined for a .686 OPS during the 2022 regular season, which ranked 25th among all 30 major league clubs. And against right-handed pitching, their combined team batting line was just .234/.305/.373 across a sample size of 4,580 total plate appearances.

Nothing overly exciting has come together for the Rays up to this point, and Neander acknowledged in a recent chat with Marc Topkin of the Tampa Bay Times that it’s probably too late to make a meaningful offensive addition from what’s left on the open market.

“As the winter went on, and as we spoke publicly, I think the focus was more on an established player, ideally left-handed, being the right type of player for our group,” Neander told Topkin. “We feel really good about the assortment of breakthrough and bounce-back players we have on our roster currently. It was really more about adding an established, consistent offensive player, and there aren’t that many of them out there that are available.”

There was chatter about a number of possible pursuits to help the cause — the Rays were linked at various points to free agents like Josh Bell and Andrew McCutchen. They were also said to be in the hunt for Sean Murphy before the Athletics dealt him to the Braves as part of a three-team swap that also involved the Brewers. Topkin writes that Tampa Bay also made runs at Michael Brantley and Brandon Belt before those players signed elsewhere.

The hope is that a trade for run-scoring help might come together sometime this spring, or better yet before the Rays even roll into camp in Orlando, Florida. Neander also plans to keep his ear open for in-season moves in 2023, should those “breakthrough and bounce-back players” — think Wander Franco, Josh Lowe, and Jonathan Aranda — fail to come through over the course of the first half.

It’s all quite daunting in an AL East that features the Blue Jays (3rd in combined OPS last year at .760) and the Yankees (4th in combined OPS at .751), but Topkin suggests the Rays could have room to add to a roughly $70MM payroll as the baseball calendar moves toward the summer months.

Maybe there could be a circle-back with the A’s, who always seem to be open for business and would likely listen on Seth Brown even after he cranked 25 home runs in 150 games last year. Or perhaps there might be a match with Twins on Max Kepler given Minnesota’s recent addition of Michael A. Taylor from the Royals. One thing the Rays do have is prospects, both low-level and the more MLB-ready types, and Tampa Bay’s front office has certainly never lacked for creativity in finding ways to pull off under-the-radar improvements.

Astros Notes: Catching, Brantley, Gurriel

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The defending champion Astros could be set to go with internal options alongside veteran Martin Maldonado behind the plate. As a report from Brian McTaggart of MLB.com suggests, the Astros had looked into the possibility of bringing in an external backstop to replace the retired Jason Castro and departed Christian Vazquez, but now may just let one of their young catchers backup Maldonado.

With the popular Maldonado the team’s top backstop, prospects Korey Lee and Yainer Diaz could battle it out in the spring for the big league backup job. Lee was the team’s first round pick back in 2019 and made it onto Baseball America’s Top 100 list before last season. He got some time in the big leagues last year, going 4-for-25 in 12 games. Lee mashed 25 homers on the way to a .238/.307/.483 line at Triple-A, where he spent the bulk of the 2022 season.

Diaz, 24, is known for his big bat and slashed .306/.356/.542 with 25 home runs between Double-A and Triple-A last season, his first with the Astros after coming over in the Myles Straw deal with Cleveland. Diaz, too, got a callup to the big leagues last season, picking up a double and a walk in nine plate appearances. While both Lee and Diaz have upside, McTaggart speculates that Diaz’ bat could give him the edge over Lee initially, as the team could play him at DH and first-base as well.

Here’s some other bits and pieces from the Astros:

  • Chandler Rome of the Houston Chronicle relays that the expectation is that Michael Brantley will be ready for Opening Day. The Astros re-signed Brantley to a one-year, $12MM deal just before Christmas. The 35-year-old was a productive hitter for the Astros last year, slashing .288/.370/.416 before going on the injured list in late June with a shoulder injury that eventually required surgery. Brantley is no stranger to injury problems, but has been a highly effective hitter when fit, as evidenced by his .306/.365/.462 line since 2017. The Astros will hope he can return fully fit in 2023 and provide more valuable offense as they look to defend their title.
  • Astros great and front office member Jeff Bagwell offered some insight into whether or not the team has any interest in bringing back Yuli Gurriel. The 38-year-old is a free agent after playing seven seasons with the Astros. He had some strong seasons in Houston, but his production dipped last year and he wound up hitting just .242/.288/.360 with eight home runs over 584 plate appearances. The Marlins are the only reported team to have made contact with Gurriel, but it seems the Astros aren’t closing the door on bringing him back. “There’s nobody that loves Yuli more than us, myself, Jim (Crane), Dusty (Baker), everybody. It’s just trying to find the right fit for the club. He’s a huge part of our success here. We’ll continue to monitor that situation,” Bagwell said (via McTaggart).

Astros Re-Sign Michael Brantley

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December 21: The Astros have officially announced the deal. Chandler Rome of the Houston Chronicle provides a breakdown of the incentives. Brantley will get $500K for reaching 400 and 425 plate appearances, then an extra $750K at 450, 475, 500 and 525 appearances.

December 18: The Astros have agreed to a one-year, $12MM deal with outfielder Michael Brantley, pending a physical.  The Athletic’s Ken Rosenthal reported the contract value, with The New York Post’s Jon Heyman (Twitter links) adding that the deal also contains $4MM in additional incentive bonuses.  FanSided’s Robert Murray (Twitter link) initially reported that the two sides were in talks about a new deal.  Brantley is represented by Excel Sports Management.

Brantley is entering his age-36 season, and 2023 will be his fifth year in a Houston uniform.  He previously signed a pair of two-year, $32MM pacts with the team in his two past trips to free agency, and by coincidence, it was four years ago today that Brantley first agreed to join the Astros.

In terms of pure numbers, Brantley’s tenure in Houston has been very successful, with a 128 wRC+ and a .306/.368/.464 slash line and 40 homers over 1609 plate appearances.  Unfortunately for Brantley, his role in the Astros’ 2022 championship season ended on June 26, due to a shoulder injury that eventually required surgery.  Brantley played in only 64 games.

This isn’t the first time Brantley has dealt with a shoulder surgery, as he previously went under the knife to fix a small labrum tear in 2015 and subsequently played in only 11 games for Cleveland in the 2016 season.  Beyond the shoulder problems, Brantley has also faced ankle and back problems throughout his career, but his first three seasons with the Astros were reasonably healthy.  Quad, knee, and hamstring issues sent Brantley to the injured list three times in 2020-21, but all three IL stints combined for roughly a month of missed time.

The presence of Yordan Alvarez has probably kept the Astros from using Brantley as a DH as often as they would probably like, though on paper, manager Dusty Baker can alternate the two players between left field and DH in order to hopefully keep everyone fresh.  With Brantley back in the mix, Jake Meyers and Chas McCormick will now be splitting time in center field.

The Astros were known to be looking for outfield help, preferably a left-handed bat (like Brantley) to balance out a lineup of mostly right-handed hitters.  Michael Conforto and the switch-hitting Jurickson Profar were other free agents reportedly on Houston’s radar, and the Astros also had some talks with the Diamondbacks about their surplus of lefty-hitting outfielders, particularly Daulton Varsho.  Among players who have already signed with other teams, Andrew Benintendi and Cody Bellinger also received some consideration from the World Series champions.

Among all these options, the Astros opted for a familiar face in Brantley, counting on a comeback year.  The signing suggests that Houston (who knows Brantley’s medical profile better than anyone) is feeling good about the outfielder’s chances of both recovering well from shoulder rehab, and returning to his prior form at the plate.  The $4MM in performance incentives gives Brantley an additional chance to cash in should he indeed stay healthy and keep up his usual levels of productivity.

While the injuries are naturally the biggest question mark hanging over Brantley, there is also the matter of what can be expected of any hitter as he gets deeper into his 30’s.  Brantley’s homer totals and slugging percentage have both dropped rather sharply over the last two seasons, though he seemed to be adjusting by having a more keen eye at the plate.  Albeit in the small sample size of 277 PA, Brantley’s 11.2% walk rate in 2022 was the highest of his 14-year Major League career.  Brantley has also remained one of baseball’s toughest hitters to strike out, and his 45.1% hard-hit ball total last season was also his highest since Statcast began tracking the category in 2015.

Between Brantley and Jose Abreu, the Astros have bolstered their lineup with a pair of “professional hitter” types who brings plenty of experience to the table.  Between Brantley’s $12MM deal and Abreu’s three-year, $58.5MM contract, Houston’s estimated payroll now sits at approximately $194MM, with a luxury tax figure of just over $209MM.  That still leaves the Astros well under the $233MM luxury tax threshold, and some of that space could be used on a catcher, since Houston has explored the market for backstops.  Some less-expensive options like Tucker Barnhart remain in free agency, or the Astros could look into trades with catcher-heavy teams like the Blue Jays.

Photo courtesy of USA Today Sports Images

Blue Jays Notes: Senga, Bassitt, Taillon, Reyes, Brantley, Gallo

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The Blue Jays are exploring several roster upgrades, with Sportsnet’s Ben Nicholson-Smith reporting that the club has interest in such players as Kodai Senga, Jameson Taillon, Alex Reyes, and Michael Brantley.  “There doesn’t appear to be traction…at the moment” between the Jays and Chris Bassitt, though the right-hander is another free agent hurler at least under consideration for the team.

Starting pitching is Toronto’s clearest need, and as one agent told Sportsnet’s Shi Davidi, the Blue Jays are “all over the pitching market” right now.  To this end, it is fair to speculate that the Jays have at least checked in on basically every available arm, which has been the team’s strategy for the previous three offseasons.  Davidi adds that the Jays also “have some degree of interest” in Carlos Rodon, Nathan Eovaldi, and their own incumbent free agent in Ross Stripling.  Past reports have indicated that the Jays have extended an offer to Andrew Heaney, and they were interested in Kyle Gibson (before Gibson rejected Toronto’s one-year, $10MM offer to sign an identical deal with the Orioles), and even Justin Verlander, before Verlander joined the Mets.

Alek Manoah and Kevin Gausman have solidified the front end of the Blue Jays’ rotation, but there is a lot of uncertainty afterwards, given how Jose Berrios and especially Yusei Kikuchi struggled in 2022.  There isn’t necessarily a guarantee that Kikuchi will even get a clear shot at a starting role, since he could at best be competing with Mitch White for the fifth starter’s job, or perhaps even be relegated to the bullpen if the Jays end up acquiring two new starters this winter.

As noted by both Nicholson-Smith and Davidi, the fact that the Jays were considering getting into Verlander’s market (even on a short-term deal) is another sign of how aggressive the team is willing to be, and perhaps a sign of how far they’ll stretch the payroll.  Bigger spending may be somewhat inevitable given the rising costs involved in the pitching market this offseason, though it might be a reach to see the Blue Jays spend what it will take to sign Rodon or perhaps even Senga, considering how the Japanese ace is drawing a lot of attention from multiple teams.  Speculatively, the Jays’ relative lack of interest in Bassitt could have to do with Bassitt’s desire for at least four guaranteed years, which may be a tall order for a pitcher heading into his age-34 season.

Reyes represents another kind of pitching addition, as the former top prospect is an intriguing bounce-back candidate who would fit on a lot of teams.  That said, Reyes also carries plenty of risk given his long injury history, including a shoulder surgery that kept him from pitching whatsoever in 2022.  It will be interesting to see how Reyes’ market materializes, as the Blue Jays and other teams will naturally be weighing the injury concerns, but the sheer amount of interest could still lead to a decent payday for the right-hander.

Beyond the pitching market, the Jays are also looking for left-handed hitting outfielders.  A gap in the outfield emerged after Toronto dealt Teoscar Hernandez to the Mariners, and a lefty swinger could help add balance to a largely right-handed Blue Jays lineup.  Brantley is one possibility, and while he is a player the Jays reportedly came very close to signing in the 2020-21 offseason, health questions also surround Brantley’s market.  Shoulder problems that eventually required surgery limited Brantley to only 64 games last season, and he has missed a lot of time earlier in his career with other injury woes.

Such names as Brandon Nimmo and Cody Bellinger have also been linked to the Jays’ outfield search this winter, and agent Scott Boras told Nicholson-Smith and Hazel Mae (Twitter link) that Toronto indeed had interest in both of his clients.  Boras also said the Blue Jays had interest in another client in Joey Gallo, another left-handed hitter.

Gallo is coming off a thoroughly rough 2022 season, hitting only .160/.280/.357 with 19 homers over 410 plate appearances with the Yankees and Dodgers.  Gallo’s “three true outcomes” style will always limit his offensive productivity to some extent, yet he is only entering his age-29 season, and Gallo’s strikeouts haven’t stopped him from posting some big offensive numbers in the past.  As recently as 2021, Gallo posted a 4.2 fWAR season, and his ability to play a decent center field would also be of interest to a Jays team that would ideally like to give George Springer more time in a corner outfield spot.

With Gallo, Bellinger, and probably Brantley all in line to receive one-year bounce-back types of contracts, the Jays could be planning to address the outfield with just a shorter-term addition, and then focus on a longer-term addition for the rotation.  The Blue Jays appear to be open to all possibilities, however, and their pursuit of free agents is also obviously impacted by what they might do on the trade market, especially with their catching depth being in high demand.

Mariners, Astros Among Teams With Interest In Michael Conforto

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Michael Conforto has drawn the attention of a number of teams in the outfield market, and a pair of AL West contenders are apparently in the mix. Jon Morosi of MLB.com tweets the Mariners are showing interest in the former All-Star, while Brian McTaggart of MLB.com writes the Astros also have Conforto on their radar. Both New York teams and the Cubs have previously been tied to the Boras Corporation client.

There’s little surprise with either development. Ryan Divish of the Seattle Times wrote last week that Seattle was open to adding another outfielder, and they’ve since been tied to Andrew Benintendi and Brandon Nimmo. A Washington native, Conforto has ties to the Pacific Northwest that could be an ancillary bonus for Seattle. Meanwhile, Ken Rosenthal of the Athletic reported last week the Astros were looking to bring in a lefty-swinging outfielder, making Conforto a sensible target. Houston was linked to him this past summer, but no deal materialized at the time.

Conforto’s a buy-low target for outfield-needy clubs. He posted an excellent .265/.369/.495 line in just shy of 2000 plate appearances for the Mets from 2017-20. After a .232/.344/.384 showing during his platform campaign in 2021, Conforto lingered on the open market upon turning down a qualifying offer from New York. He reportedly suffered a right shoulder injury during the lockout, and he underwent surgery in April. Conforto was able to begin swinging a few months later, but the rehab process prevented him from throwing during the season. While there was some chatter he could sign with a team late in the 2022 season to serve as a designated hitter or bench bat, that didn’t come to pass.

On the heels of that lost season, Scott Boras has suggested Conforto is looking for a two-year guarantee that allows him to opt out after the first season. If that doesn’t prove attainable, it stands to reason he could pivot to a straight one-year deal to get back to free agency at the end of next year. There’s no longer any draft compensation attached to Conforto, so teams figure to be more willing to take a shot on him returning to form than they were this past spring after the shoulder injury.

It seems the 29-year-old (30 next March) continues to progress well from the surgery. Conforto has long since been cleared to begin hitting, and Morosi tweeted this afternoon he’s also begun a throwing program. There doesn’t figure to be much issue building his arm back into game shape by the time Spring Training rolls around, positioning him back in the corner outfield mix for clubs.

The Mariners have two outfield spots accounted for in Julio Rodríguez and Teoscar Hernández, but they’re open to upgrades over the contingent of Jesse Winker, Taylor Trammell, Jarred Kelenic and Sam Haggerty in left field and at designated hitter. The Astros have Kyle Tucker locked into right field, while Chas McCormick has the inside track on the center field job. Yordan Alvarez is slated to split time between left field and designated hitter, but Houston’s scoring the market for another lefty bat to serve the role Michael Brantley filled the past few seasons.

Brantley is coming off shoulder surgery of his own — his procedure coming in August. McTaggart suggests the club isn’t closing the door on retaining Brantley for a fifth season, but there’s a bit more uncertainty on the five-time All-Star’s status since he underwent his surgery more recently than Conforto has.

Astros Eyeing Left-Handed Hitting Corner Outfielders

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The Astros have already crossed one item off their to-do list this winter, re-signing setup man Rafael Montero to a three-year pact. They reportedly had strong interest in first baseman Anthony Rizzo before he re-signed with the Yankees, and while they still have a hole at first base, they’re also in the market for a left-handed-hitting corner outfielder, per Ken Rosenthal of The Athletic.

Outfield help is a natural target for the Astros, who saw Michael Brantley go down with a season-ending shoulder injury this summer (which ultimately required surgery). He’s now a free agent, leaving the Astros’ projected outfield mix consisting of right fielder Kyle Tucker, center field options Chas McCormick and Jake Meyers, and designated hitter/occasional left fielder Yordan Alvarez.

The 25-year-old Alvarez did log a career-high 467 innings in left field this season, and if the team were to commit to playing him more regularly there, the search could expand to include lefty-swinging corner outfielders and designated hitters. That said, Alvarez has had multiple knee surgeries in the past, despite his youth, so it’s sensible enough if the team prefers to limit his time on the field to help keep his bat in the lineup.

Brantley himself would ostensibly be an option, of course. He said late in the season that he expects to be ready for Spring Training, and if that’s the case, there aren’t many better bets in the “professional hitter” category than the five-time All-Star. Over the past five seasons, Brantley has batted a combined .307/.367/.465 with 57 home runs, 134 doubles and eight triples in 2240 plate appearances. He’s fanned in just 10.6% of those trips to the plate and walked at an eight percent clip as well.

Generally speaking, it’s not a great free-agent market for outfielders this winter. Aaron Judge, of course, is the top free agent, while center fielder Brandon Nimmo ranks a distant second. Beyond that pair, there are plenty of options to peruse, but the majority come with some degree of red flag.

If Houston prefers to pursue a younger option, any of Andrew Benintendi, Cody Bellinger or Joey Gallo could make sense — although the latter two are particularly dependent on Houston’s appetite for taking on a rebound candidate. Both Gallo and Bellinger have seen their once prodigious offensive profiles tank in recent seasons. Bellinger is likely available on a one-year deal as he looks to rebuild some stock. Benintendi, meanwhile, saw his season end on Sept. 2 due to a broken hamate bone. Masataka Yoshida, star outfielder for Japan’s Orix Buffaloes, will reportedly be posted for MLB clubs, but whether his outstanding production in NPB will carry over to MLB is a total unknown at this point.

Alternatives include longtime D-backs outfielder David Peralta, now-former Padres left fielder Jurickson Profar and well-traveled Corey Dickerson. Peralta is 35 and coming off a tepid finish to the 2022 season with the Rays. Profar’s age, bat-to-ball skills and former prospect status could all be appealing, but a .237/.331/.364 slash over the past two seasons isn’t especially eye-catching. Dickerson has had similar production but in a part-time role and is three years older.

The trade market, of course, presents myriad opportunities. The division-rival Mariners were known to be exploring trades involving Jesse Winker earlier this month. Minnesota’s Max Kepler is an oft-speculated trade candidate this winter, and switch-hitters Ian Happ (Cubs) and Anthony Santander (Orioles) were both discussed by their respective clubs in the weeks leading up  to this past summer’s trade deadline.

Whatever path the ’Stros take, some degree of outfield addition feels like a foregone conclusion. The 26-year-old Meyers hit just .227/.269/.313 in his return from last offseason’s shoulder surgery. McCormick, 27, posted solid overall numbers, but the overwhelming majority of his production came against left-handed pitchers; he hit .340/.409/.563 against southpaws but only .207/.301/.344 against fellow righties. Tucker, Meyers, McCormick, Alvarez and utilityman Mauricio Dubon are the only outfielders on the 40-man roster at present. Tucker and Alvarez are the only left-handed hitters who are locked into lineup spots.

Crane: Justin Verlander Seeking Deal Similar To Max Scherzer’s

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Justin Verlander is a free agent without much precedent. A favorite to claim his third career Cy Young award this evening, he’s back on the open market after bypassing a $25MM player option with the Astros.

Verlander’s a fascinating case for teams. He turns 40 years old in February, which’ll certainly cap the length of his next deal. Yet he’s still among the top handful of pitchers in the sport, which sets him up for one of the largest per-year salaries in MLB history. Astros owner Jim Crane — who has taken a very hands-on role in the Houston front office and played a key role in bringing Verlander back last winter — told Brian McTaggart of MLB.com that Verlander has looked to last winter’s biggest free agent pitching contract as precedent. His former teammate Max Scherzer inked a three-year, $130MM guarantee with the Mets — a deal that also allowed him to opt out after the 2023 season.

“I know him well, so we’ve been pretty candid,” Crane told McTaggart. “He’s looking at the comp, which I think there’s only one or two. … J.V.’s probably got a few years left, and he wants to make the most of it. I think he’s going to test the market on that.”

The Scherzer deal indeed seems the closest comparison to Verlander, although their situations aren’t perfectly analogous. While both are all-time great pitchers still pitching near the top of their games deeper into their careers, a three-year bet on Scherzer was probably easier for a team to stomach than that same term for Verlander. Scherzer signed in advance of his age-37 season, while the latter will be three years older at the start of his next contract. Verlander’s two years removed from a Tommy John procedure that cost him almost all of the 2020-21 campaigns, but he’s bounced back to pitch at pre-surgery levels this year. Scherzer had avoided any injury of that magnitude in the past decade, topping 170 innings in every full season since 2008 before this year.

While that seems to tip things in Scherzer’s favor, their pure performance track records are mostly without complaint. Verlander had a 1.75 ERA across 175 innings this past season; Scherzer posted a 2.46 mark in 2021. The latter missed more bats, striking out 34.1% of opponents against Verlander’s 27.8% mark. Fanning just under 28% of opponents is still excellent for a starting pitcher, though, and Verlander maintained top-tier control while sitting in the mid-90s with his fastball.

To no one’s surprise, Crane suggested the Astros hope to bring Verlander back. However, there appears to be a notable gap between the two sides on contract terms right now. While Crane didn’t specify the lengths the Astros are willing to go to retain the nine-time All-Star, Chandler Rome of the Houston Chronicle reports Crane has thus far been reluctant to go past a two-year guarantee in the $60MM – $70MM range. That’s certainly not to say the Houston owner couldn’t later raise the offer, but Rome characterizes that as a rough line the team has set at present and suggests the Astros are very unlikely to offer a third guaranteed year.

Whether another team would be willing to go three years is one of the most interesting storylines of the offseason, and MLBTR forecasts Verlander for a three-year, $120MM guarantee. In any event, it doesn’t seem as if the Astros and Verlander are going to come to any agreement within the first few days of the offseason. The right-hander has spoken a number of times about his respect for Crane and affinity for the organization generally, but the owner’s comments don’t suggest the future Hall of Famer is looking to take a notable discount to stick around for a fifth full season with the defending World Series champs.

One could argue the Astros are better off letting Verlander walk and reallocating their spending capacity. They’re sure to face competition from a number of big-market, win-now teams. Clubs like the Yankees, Dodgers, Mets and Phillies figure to check in; Andy Martino of SNY wrote yesterday the Mets have discussed internally the possibility of a Verlander pursuit, presumably as an alternative if Jacob deGrom departs in free agency.

Houston is one of the sport’s biggest spenders themselves, and they don’t figure to be facing acute budgetary limitations coming off a championship. Yet Rome points out the Astros under Crane have tended to shy away from long-term free agent commitments. They also have questions at first base, at one of left field or designated hitter (depending on the team’s plans for Yordan Alvarez) and, to a lesser extent, in the bullpen.

Roster Resource projects their 2023 commitments just under $164MM with a luxury tax number around $179MM. Topping this year’s approximate $174MM Opening Day payroll feels like a given, and they’re around $54MM away from the $233MM base luxury tax threshold. Houston could certainly make a Verlander deal work, but an annual salary approaching or topping the $43.333MM Scherzer secured would push them fairly close to CBT territory without addressing anywhere else on the roster. Even if Verlander departs, a rotation of Framber Valdez, Cristian Javier, Lance McCullers Jr., Luis Garcia, José Urquidy and top prospect Hunter Brown (plus any external additions) would be among the best in the sport.

As far those other needs go, Crane tells McTaggart he’s interested in bringing back Yuli Gurriel at first base. He was less committal on Michael Brantley, whom Crane said could need to wait until March until there’s clarity on his recovery from this summer’s right shoulder surgery. Crane also pointed to a desire to add a left-handed bullpen arm, an obvious question after the team bought out Will Smith at the start of the offseason. He didn’t speak on free agent catcher/DH Willson Contreras, to whom the club has previously been linked, but Rome reports that Houston indeed has “strong interest” in the former Cubs backstop.

Michael Brantley Intends To Play In 2023

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Astros outfielder Michael Brantley underwent season-ending shoulder surgery in August but told reporters, including Chandler Rome of the Houston Chronicle, that he intends to play next year and should be ready for Spring Training.

Brantley, who will turn 36 in May, has played in 14 MLB seasons at this point and has designs on a 15th. His career has been defined by stretches where he’s one of the best hitters in the game but intermixed with extended injury absences. In 2016 and 2017, he only played 101 total games but bounced back with a nice 2018 season, hitting .309/.364/.468 in 143 games with Cleveland.

He parlayed that fine season into a two-year, $32MM contract with the Astros. He hit .311/.372/.503 over 148 games in 2019 while avoiding any trips to the injured list. He had a single 10-day minimum stint on the IL in the pandemic-shortened 2020 season, getting into 46 out of 60 games and hitting .300/.364/.476.

The Astros were evidently pleased with how that contract played out as they gave him the same deal again, $32MM over another two seasons. Brantley made a couple trips to the IL in 2021 but without missing significant time, getting into 121 games and hitting well yet again, producing a line of .311/.362/.437. He was on the verge of another solid season here this year, hitting .288/.370/.416 before the shoulder injury cut his campaign short after just 64 contests.

That second Astros contract is now winding down, with Brantley heading back to the open market. It’s possible that, once he recovers from the surgery, he will have to hold some kind of a showcase for teams to demonstrate his health. We saw this storyline play out a year ago with another Astro, when Justin Verlander was coming back from Tommy John surgery. He missed all of 2021 but then was able to hold a showcase and impress enough teams to garner significant interest. In the end, he agreed to return to the Astros and has had an excellent season here in 2022.

Since the Astros have already shown a willingness to bet on one of their guys bouncing back from a serious surgery, it’s certainly possible they could do so again. For Brantley’s part, he spoke to the media today and had nothing but good things to say about the organization, as relayed by Mark Berman of Fox 26. It seems a reunion is certainly in the cards, though it will likely be at least somewhat contingent on Brantley’s continued progress.

With Brantley out of action, the Astros picked up Trey Mancini at the deadline to improve their outfield picture. He is likely heading into free agency himself, however, given that he has a mutual option for 2022, with those arrangements rarely exercised by both sides. If Brantley were to return to Houston, the club could potentially go with the same alignment they had earlier in the year, with Kyle Tucker in right, Chas McCormick in center and Brantley sharing left field and designated hitter duties with Yordan Alvarez.

Financially, there would be nothing preventing the Astros from bringing Brantley back. In the estimation of Jason Martinez of Roster Resource, the club has a 2022 payroll of around $179MM but only about $109MM committed for 2023. That doesn’t include raises for arbitration-eligible players, but there should still be some budget to work with even once those are factored in.

Astros Reinstate Lance McCullers Jr. From 60-Day Injured List

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Right-hander Lance McCullers Jr. has been activated from the 60-day injured list to start the Astros’ game against the Athletics today.  In corresponding moves, outfielder Michael Brantley (who just underwent season-ending shoulder surgery) was moved to the 60-day IL, while right-hander Seth Martinez was optioned to Triple-A.

McCullers will be taking the hill for the first time since October 12, when he tossed four innings in Game 4 of the ALDS — a 10-2 win that clinched Houston’s series win over the White Sox.   A flexor tendon forearm strain then sidelined McCullers for the remainder of the Astros’ postseason run and for much of this 2022 season, as a setback during the rehab process delayed the right-hander from making his debut until today.

A healthy McCullers represents a nice late-season boost to a rotation that is already arguably baseball’s best.  McCullers’ impending return allowed Houston the luxury of moving Jake Odorizzi at the trade deadline, as the Astros can slot McCullers right into a six-man rotation that also includes Justin Verlander, Framber Valdez, Jose Urquidy, Luis Garcia, and Cristian Javier.  That pitching depth also extends to the bullpen, as on most teams, Martinez’s 2.48 ERA in 32 2/3 innings would merit a larger role, not a demotion to the minors.

Even amidst all these other quality arms, McCullers can certainly factor into the Astros’ starting plans for this year’s postseason, as the Astros again look to make a deep October run.  McCullers has a 3.35 ERA over his last 217 1/3 innings in the regular season, since returning from the Tommy John surgery that erased his entire 2019 campaign.  In 2021, McCullers factored into Cy Young Award voting for the first time, finishing seventh on the ballot.

Michael Brantley Undergoes Season-Ending Shoulder Surgery

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The Astros announced Friday that outfielder Michael Brantley, who has been out since June due to a shoulder issue, underwent an arthroscopic procedure to repair a torn labrum in his right shoulder. The surgery will end his season.

Since Brantley was placed on the injured list, the Astros have been vague regarding the nature of Brantley’s injury. General manager James Click said in July that there were no updates on Brantley other than that the team was waiting for inflammation in his shoulder to subside. Acting manager Joe Espada (filling in while Dusty Baker was out due to Covid-19) said earlier this week that Brantley was seeking a second opinion.

Today’s announcement is the first indication of structural damage within the shoulder. This is the second time in Brantley’s career that he’s required surgery on this shoulder; he also suffered a small tear in his labrum late in the 2015 campaign and eventually underwent surgery that November.

Brantley, 35, is the second season of a two-year, $32MM contract with the Astros. It’s the second consecutive two-year, $32MM deal he’s signed with Houston, where he’s now played since the 2019 campaign. He’s appeared in 64 games and taken 277 plate appearances this season, batting .288/.370/.418 with five homers, 14 doubles and a triple. In all, Brantley has batted a combined .306/.368/.464 in just over 1600 regular-season plate appearances as an Astro, plus an additional 211 plate appearances of .314/.376/.408 production in the postseason.

If that’s the end of Brantley’s run with the Houston franchise, he’ll go down as an immensely successful veteran signing. There’s no option on Brantley’s contract, so he’s set to become a free agent in a couple months’ time. The Astros did not provide a timetable for when he might return to playing. The Astros’ announcement added that Click will speak to reporters in a couple hours, so further updates could be provided at that time.

The ’Stros have been dealing with Brantley’s absence for some time already, most regularly turning to Chas McCormick, Yordan Alvarez and Aledmys Diaz in his absence. Houston acquired Trey Mancini from the Orioles prior to the Aug. 2 trade deadline, but Baker has voiced a reluctance to play him in the outfield, given Mancini’s limited outfield work in recent seasons. (More broadly, he’s opted to sit Mancini nearly as often as start him since the trade, much to the chagrin of Astros fans.)

Subtracting Brantley from the outfield mix entirely puts a damper on the potential postseason roster, as players like McCormick and Diaz — generally viewed as depth/bench options — will now be pressed into more full-time duty. Add in the ongoing struggles of center fielder Jake Meyers, who’s batting just .218/.260/.328 this season (and .147/.205/.221 over his past 23 games), and the outfield is at least a potential area of concern for the remainder of the year. It also stands out as a natural area of focus for Click and his staff in the coming offseason, whether they pursue a Brantley reunion or look for alternatives on the free-agent and/or trade markets.

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