The Twins face a fascinating trade deadline as they try to stay out ahead of the division-rival Indians. Minnesota chief baseball officer Derek Falvey discussed his club’s approach in a recent appearance on Darren Wolfson’s The Scoop podcast (audio link).
Many fans would prefer to have already seen some new additions populating the roster, but Falvey says that’s simply not how the summer trade period typically unfolds. Even with the unitary trade deadline, the “market dynamics” are similar to those in prior seasons, he suggests, with a crescendo presumptively building just in advance of the deadline (one week from today).
While the Twins have at least given internal consideration to forcing the action, they’ve obviously ultimately decided to wait until the market picture gains greater resolution. There’s little question of the buying status of the Minnesota club — they’re in — but rivals with possible acquisition targets are still waiting to make their final calls. And there are obviously quite a few possibilities to sort through.
It seems as if the Twins aren’t fully committed to a particular deadline approach. Per Falvey, the club is unsurprisingly “focused more on the pitching side.” Beyond that, its moves may not unfold “in the most orthodox fashion,” he says.”
Rather than specifically pursuing certain roles — say, a top-flight starter or closer — the Twins are interested in improving “overall pitching depth.” That could open the door to creative approaches. As he put it: “we may think about … if there are ways to add to our starting rotation, our pitching depth, is there a way to add to the bullpen at the same time?”
Fans probably shouldn’t expect any true blockbusters out of the Minnesota front office. Falvey says he’s “actively working that market to try and find ways to improve this club,” but strongly suggests it won’t come in the way of adding new core or high-end rental pieces. This year’s successes, he says, will surely come “from the group that’s in that clubhouse right now.” Deadline moves are likelier to function as “supplements” to the roster core.
It isn’t terribly surprising to hear of this general approach. The Twins have made clear since the offseason that they’d rely primarily on their slate of internally developed talent. Of course, it’s also arguable that the time is ripe for the club to push hard to add impact MLB talent right now. As GM Thad Levine stated over the winter, “We’re very eagerly waiting for this window to be opened, and when it is, we plan on striking.”
There’s plenty more of interest in the podcast for fans of the team, including a few health updates. Among other things, Falvey says that veteran reliever Cody Allen is dealing with a minor neck issue but has been “starting to show some signs” of promise. That obviously won’t dissuade the club from pursuing more reliable arms via trade.
For the love of God, someone make a trade already
The fact that there isn’t a major trade tells me 2 things.
Sellers are asking a premium plus and buyers are hoping the first major seller with a top tier asset cracks to set the market for lower prices.
If sellers were willing to trade based on the trade value calculator we would have seen all of the big names moved out by now.
We’ll see who cracks first. Given the fact that there are way more buyers then sellers i’d say put my money on the buyers.
I think there are going to be a lot of fan bases that are soon to be upset that they traded their precious prospects and “lost” according to the trade value calculator..
it will happen. calm down.
Great idea, let’s just make a trade to make a trade. It would be brilliant to trade right now when teams are less desperate, most are still “in the hunt” and everything is incredibly expensive. If you’re looking to benefit your team in the long run, why would you give up huge assets just because you were impatient? Teams asking prices are gonna go down each day. They know what they are doing.
Pathetic.
From a Twins’ fan’s perspective, this VERY much reads as a PR spin on “don’t expect much” Which we already knew since they didn’t aggressively go after Keuchel. Sad thing is they have the offensive firepower to carry them through some games. They just need a front end starting pitcher and probably 2 solid bullpen arms, and they’d have a legitimate shot at a VERY deep playoff run. But this front office is going to let it slip by and supplement a borderline garbage staff with more garbage and hope something sticks. It’s what they’ve been doing all season, signing a bunch of people cut from other teams to hope one of them magically figures something out and saves the day. Done with this Front Office
At least they draft well, but yeah I really hate the games this FO has been playing. They publicly stated that they would be legit buyers if the window was open, now that it’s actually happened they’re backtracking…
If we don’t win the division, we all know who’s to blame.
I’m with you, Falvey should be run out of town.
Agree
Lol please tell me you’re kidding. This team is one of the best in baseball, thanks to our front office and their offseason moves, not only that but they are locking up our core group. Boneheaded comment
On pace to win 98 games…”done with this front office”
Phantomofdb: I’m right there with you at the moment, but will give the front office a chance, for now, to step up and make the improvements we need. My reasoning is that Falvey, unlike Terry Ryan, did prove that he’s willing to pursue and sign some key hitters in the offseason. NOW IS THE TIME FALVEY!! You’ve FAILED to prove you an bring in any QUALITY pitching talent. Signing Addison Reed was a major bust. Going with the “committee approach” for our bullpen in the offseason has proved to be a colossal failure. This is NOT 2017!! This team..although flawed with inconsistencies in the lineup is 1 SP and 2 quality proven RPs away from taking the AL Central title away from CLE, which at least would guarantee 1 playoff loss would not tend our season. This fan base and this team deserves their GM to step up and do his job.
“They just need a front end starting pitcher and probably 2 solid bullpen arms”
Can you see how that’s kind of a lot? You look at the prospects that teams have been acquiring in these trades and the Twins would need to guy their farm to make it happen. Even just a really good reliever with control can cost two top-100 prospects+.
Excatly how it’s going to pan out i have seen it coming to what’s really sad their going. To waste the great start we had by having cheap ownership and even sadder they will look to cut salary cost for next year I’m just as fed up as you are whole idea of a new stadium was so they could compete and put a better team on the feild now we done our part with target feild it’s same old song and dance c4ap with the ownership I hate to be.so negative but it just gets frustrating year after year of the same bs
Falvey knows what he’s doing. In Falvey I trust.
Falvey is stingy on prospects, Pohlad is stingy on cash. Makes for tough trading.
You must be good buddies with Falvey
Why do some people feel the need to anoint teams or their front offices? My criticism comes from observation.
But that came off as an assumption, which I don’t think is a fair thing to do.
Speculation and assumptions are what you have when you aren’t an insider. We have access to such a small percentage of the information for any transaction. Even a signing, we have no idea what was being offered by who, what scouting reports say, other factors and variables like marketing etc
Just pretend that every sentence in a comment ends with “IMO”
It’s obviously frustrating that we haven’t made a trade yet, but it’s also understandable with how the market is being. It’s better to wait a week or two then make a trade earlier in the month and pay a bigger premium. In Falvey we trust.
Twins have high end pitching and OF prospects and a need for immediate pitching upgrades.
Jays have maybe the top SP and RP target on the market and a need for young P and OFs.
Graterol, Larnach, Balazovic and a lotto ticket for Stroman, Giles, Hudson and Phelps.
One stop shopping. 🙂
3 Top 100 prospects for that? No thanks.
Think the Jays can reasonably expect a top 100 prospect + some lower level prospects for each of Stroman and Giles.
Add Larnach in place of the lower level guys and chuck in Hudson and Phelps to offset.
Losing the pitchers would hurt but with Kepler, Rosario, Buxton and Kiriloff Twins are set in the OF for a while. Stroman and Giles both controllable next year as the Twins take another run at the playoffs.
Likely will never happen.. but I think the value is fair.
What do you think one of the top sp’s should cost? Chapman/Miller returned that much on their own. I’m not sure who those guys are (I haven’t had a look in a while) but it sounds like the Blue Jays are giving up a lot.
Well two top100 for Stro and one top100 for Giles seems about right to me.
This might be the most sensible trade offer i’ve seen from anyone in a long while.
I think you would have to take Balazovic out and replace him with something else ,they probably don’t want to give up their top two pitching prospects.
Probably not. Maybe Duran and Gonsalves instead of Balazovic?
For what it’s worth Fangraphs has Duran as the Twins 5th ranked prospect and 99th on their top 100. Balazovic is the Twins 11th ranked prospect according to Fangraphs. MLB has them flipped.
It’s far more likely its Larnach and Balazovic OR Graterol (I doubt they give up Graterol) + a lower prospect for Giles and Stroman. Phelps and Hudson aren’t worth a top 100 prospect. There’s no way they give up 3 for that group. They’d be better off calling up any other team and acquiring 2 better relievers.
Fangraphs hasn’t updated their prospects list during the season.
@jbigz12
I’m sure if they could call up another team to acquire 2 better relievers at a price that they deem acceptable, they would have by now.
Again, the question here is who is going to crack first. The owners or the buyers.
Larnach and Balazovic for Giles and Stroman might work on the trade calculator, but if the Jays were willing to accept that offer or something similar from another organization, it would have happened by now.
It still might happen before the trade deadline however, it’s a matter of who’s going to blink first.
I’d put my money on the buyers.
Organizations also run the risk that even if the sellers do crack first, that automatically means that their team would get the players at a price that they deem to be worth it.
Let’s take the Jays for example, let’s say that Atkins cracks and sells according to the trade calculator value.
What happens if internally they value let’s say the Yankees trade calculator value of Frazier and Abreu more then Larnach and Balazovic for Stroman and Giles?
The twins lose out and the fan base will be upset that their organization didn’t acquire the best cost controlled starting pitcher and reliever on the market for the next 2 playoffs at a price that they felt was extremely affordable.
I can’t see the Jays taking that deal. Not yet anyway.
A lower top 100 prospect plus a lower level guy is probably realistic for Giles.
Stroman with an extra year of control I think is worth someone like a Graterol + a lower level prospect. Based on past SP trades of similar pitchers with varying levels of control. (Gray, Price)
Hudson and Phelps are definitely not worth a top 100 guy. Figure if you lump their value with the lower level guys in the Stroman and Giles deals… you get one Larnach! Quality over quantity 🙂
Kane is right. If the buyers are all in there could be a bidding war. Everyone remembers the prospects lost in a deadline deal or offseason trade for an established player. Nobody remembers the competing offers that forced the obtaining team to up the ante.
Lower level throw ins don’t up the ante to give up better prospects. They’ll give you more mid range prospects for guys like Hudson and Phelps. They aren’t going to decide hey let’s give up Larnach now that those 2 are in there. Regardless I think Duran is a realistic 3rd piece in a Giles/Stroman/filler trade if the ask does get pushed up on them. I wouldn’t consider him to be far below Balazovic in terms of value. He has a good looking arm.
I’ll say it’s interesting for Giles. I don’t think teams are going to forget about his meltdowns in the past. It may not hurt his value all that much but I think it will be a consideration. He’s blown up in tough spots more than once. I don’t see that package netting you a top 50 and 2 top 100’s. Especially with the Twins possibly not 100% ready to put their foot on the gas from Falvey’s comments.
THe Braves have more pitching prospects to give and probably an easier time giving them considering their postseason locks trying to make the team a WS contender. I think possibly a Touki/Wilson + package could be possible there. They arguably need relievers more than Minnesota.
You pay up to win a World Series. If the Twins aren’t prepared to do that, they aren’t prepared to win a World Series.
One top 50, One top 100 and a young prospect between 25-30th in the system can do it for Stroman and Giles.
We established Atlanta’s plethora of young arms. Knowing AA he’s probalby making a move on the weekend, minor or major.
At first I wasn’t a believer in the Twins. Watched them struggle against the Blue Jays earlier in the season and I thought they were gifted the benefit of bottom-feeding AL Central teams.
The Twins are legit. They are an arm (Stroman) and a bullpen bullet or two from not only being contenders but could overtake the #1 seed in the AL. They can make noise.
Do you take Balazovic + lower level prospect (say Gonsalves for arguments sake) for Stroman? Like the trade calculator says is fair value?
I don’t think I do. Not yet anyway.
Balazovic is still too far away from MLB and therefore risky to be my headliner.
The trade calculators are nothing more than a reference. If there are 2 or more teams vying for Stroman the stakes raise. The calculator is for stat nerds not wanting live in the real world.
To answer your question, no I don’t take that deal. But if offered, the Jays take that to Houston, NYY and Atlanta. If one jumps, you take that offer back to the Twins and see if the Twins will call.
It’s a game of Poker.
Balazovic and Luis Rijo seems like an appropriate starting point. If they added Sands and another player with Giles tied in, that seems fair. Twins keep their Top 3 prospects in the meantime.
A lot could still happen, but I’d rather a stay the course approach than a Dipoto we need a completely different team every few months.
Still some aggression would be nice. How many bust prospects has the team dealt with in the last decade?
I don’t expect the world, but last night’s game would have been over with one extra piece in the bullpen (or competent umpires, but as twins fans we know the Yankees get the calls even if a ball is hit five feet fair in a playoff game)
Complaining about the call, eh? If you watched the whole game, then you would’ve seen that de Jesus was horrible for both teams. It was a borderline pitch that was called a ball. I expected Voit to be rung up based on much worse pitches being called strikes throughout the game, so I was surprised that he wasn’t. We definitely need robot umps ASAP.
Baseball is a human sport, much less reliant on technology than other sports. That is why many of us continue to watch the sport. For some of us, it is the only sport we follow. Baseball is on NO timer (currently) and goes as long as it takes. When you implement artificial umps, you depersonalize the sport. It will kill the game, at least for those people that are not beholden to the dogmas of Progress and Technology. Mistakes are part of life. Mistakes are part of the game. Mistakes are part of umpiring.
No, it will not kill the game. Baseball is an ever-evolving game. The natural progression is having robots calling balls and strikes. Fans want the calls made to be right. No one goes to a game or watches from home because they want to see Hernandez, West, etc. butchering calls. The technology is available; it’s time to utilize it for the good of the game.
I like the idea of using human umps with tracker technology, as is being tested in the minors. The ump has an earpiece that beeps foul or fair, but he has the ability to override if he thinks the beep is incorrect.
Stroman is Gibson! No thanks!
Stroman is Gibson, if Gibson ever had control.
Gibson 3.2 BB/9 over his career. 2.6 BB/9 this year. A lot of things you could knock Gibson on but control, really? That’s not the one I’d go for. Stroman’s career average is 2.5 BB/9 and an identical 2.6 BB/9 This year.
Lol you deserve to lose commenting rights
Bye bye nice season thanks to the bullpen. Falvey showing true colors, all the twins fans say thanks Derek. So disappointing for the fans.
The Indians are gonna win the divison.
Falvey comes from another organization that’s used to penny pinching, I don’t expect them to add any of the top bullpen arms due to the financial commitment it would take to keep them long-term and the prospect’s you’d have to give up to get them. While losing the prospects would hurt more than enough, the thought of trading someone like Royce Lewis or Trevor Larnach would kill the Pohlads after spending millions of dollars to sign them.
This feels like a trade deadline where we’ll get a minor deal or two, then next Wednesday, we won’t be able to keep up with the last minute flurry.
Doesn’t last night prove that we need a closer?
Rogers is fine. I can’t think of a single closer that’s better that would actually be available anyway.
Everyones available. For the right price.
Question is will someone pay the price.
Twins could ask the padres for yates and stammen plus erlin but itd cost gaternol and others.
The Twins desperately need a quality bullpen arm or two. It’s been a weak link for some time now. Guys are taxed for one, and outside of Rogers there’s some big question marks. But even he has been victim to over exposure lately out of necessity. They have a deep farm and need to strike now. Next year could be very different from this year. Window is open, so make it pay off.
Every contending team needs bullpen help. Some twins fans, wait, most twins fans are so obtuse.
It isn’t the front office staff that is to blame for the Twins’ “Garbage In – Garbage Out” strategy for adding talent. It’s the CHEAP – CHEAP – CHEAP ownership which has been the hallmark of the Pohlad family ownership.
Please. They are allowed to make a profit. No one complained that the Wilfs make a profit, 10 times as much, mind you, on the Vikings.
The Pohlad family milked their wealth off the backs of the people of MSP through: Mass Transit, Banking, Bottling and the Twins. Carl’s WIFE was the baseball fan, not Carl. He only bought the team with the goal of adding profits to his financial war chest. Although he also fed his ego by being the person who kept the Twins in Minnesota. While other MLB ownership groups ACTUALLY consist of people who are fans as well as financiers, the only priority of the Pohlad family was and still is a healthy bottom line.
Blake Parker just DFAd
They have to act and act BIG! Oakland a few years back took a shot by getting Jon Lester and this was THE RIGHT MOVE. When small market teams have a shot at winning it all, they have to take it and don’t look back. They won’t have the luxury of buying their way back to contention year after year like the teams with deeper pockets do. I’m not suggesting to be crazy and give away your whole farm for rentals but if an ace can be had at fair market price, they need to be aggressive bidders. They have a real shot.