By Dodgers closer Kenley Jansen’s lofty standards, this has been a difficult season. In his latest appearance Wednesday, the 31-year-old allowed a ninth-inning solo home run en route to a blown save against the Blue Jays. The juggernaut Dodgers still went on to another victory, but Jansen’s seemingly one of their few players who hasn’t enjoyed a stellar season.
Jansen has already surrendered the second-most homers of his career (eight) and racked up his second-highest total of blown saves (six, in 32 chances) through 48 2/3 innings in 2019. And while most relievers would be satisfied with Jansen’s 3.70 ERA/3.58 FIP, those numbers rank among career worsts for a hurler who has logged a stingy 2.32 ERA/2.24 FIP since debuting in 2011.
Jansen’s dip in performance (which dates back to last year) is among the reasons the Dodgers’ bullpen has been shaky at times this season. But there’s no imminent end-of-game change coming for Los Angeles, manager Dave Roberts explained to Bill Plunkett of the Orange County Register, saying he’s “not tempted” to remove Jansen as closer. The two did, however, have a “long” meeting after Wednesday’s game, reports Plunkett, who writes that Jansen also met with Dodgers president Andrew Friedman. Jansen indicated Roberts and Friedman gave him votes of confidence, but Roberts acknowledged that if things don’t turn around in the coming weeks, “then there should be a conversation and then I will have to make a decision.”
For now, Roberts is betting on improvement from the three-time All-Star, as is Jansen himself. “I’m going to be there” in the ninth, said Jansen, who insisted he’s not worried about his status. Despite his issues this year, Jansen has still posted some of the top numbers of anyone in LA’s bullpen. When it comes to regular Dodgers relievers, only Pedro Baez and Julio Urias have bettered Jansen at preventing runs (though Joe Kelly has overcome a rough start to dominate in recent weeks), and no one on the team rivals Jansen’s wealth of game-ending experience.
Back in 2017, Jansen enjoyed one of the single greatest seasons any reliever has ever delivered. He fired 68 1/3 innings of 1.32 ERA/1.31 FIP ball, recording 14.36 K/9 against 0.92 BB/9 with 41 saves on 42 tries. That near-unbeatable version of Jansen also registered a career-best 18.2 swinging-strike rate, relying on his signature cutter 85.4 percent of the time (per Statcast) to stymie the opposition. That pitch is no longer as formidable, though, and Jansen has turned to it less as a result. He has gone to it at a 76.7 percent rate this year, filling in the other 23.3 percent with a four-seamer and a slider that he has relied on to almost matching extents.
Jansen’s velocity on his cutter, four-seamer and slider has fallen in comparison to his dream ’17 season, but that’s not to say hitters have teed off on any of them. In fact, according to Statcast, Jansen has produced above-average results with each offering. Unsurprisingly, the .287 weighted on-base average hitters have managed against him trumps his .263 expected wOBA – the latter of which ranks in the majors’ 93rd percentile. Jansen’s also near the summit of the league in strikeout percentage (91st percentile; he has fanned 11.04 per nine while walking only 2.03), fastball spin (96th percentile), hard-hit rate allowed (97th percentile) and average exit velocity against (99th percentile; 84.5 mph).
By Statcast’s metrics, not to mention Jansen’s 17th-ranked swinging-strike percentage (16.1), he’s still either an elite reliever or close to it. Although he’s not the Jansen who steamrolled hitters two years ago, “He doesn’t need to be the ’17 Kenley,” according to Roberts. “He needs to be the best of what he is today and going forward.”
At least Joe Kelly has been on fire. 1.76 ERA/2.10 xFIP, 12.91 K/9 since the start of July.
Jansen needs to be better.
Joe Kelly is not a better option – crazy! He’s good in his role but not their closer with a healthy Jansen to go to
I never said he should..
postseason kelly has a career 2.49 era which tells a different story. has been kinda lights out in the playoffs the last 6 years when his team makes the playoffs. worth a look if you ask me.
He did not say that.
Lofty standards is right! He’s a great closer, just having less of a year than in recent years. Cut the guy a break!
2 bad seasons in a row and he blew game 2 of the 2017 WS. He’s no longer great but let’s hope he’s passable in October.
Roberts for pulling Hill or Ross Stripling blew game 2 of that world series. Jansen came in the 8th inning which put him at a disadvantage for the 9th but no one talks about that.
It is sort of reassuring that Roberts is at least prepared to have the conversation if Jansen can’t find a groove over the few weeks. The result of that conversation is the not very reassuring part. It could be the equally nerve-racking Baez or Kelly pitching the 9th, or throwing May into the fire.
I’m happy Roberts is prepared to have the conversation too. If anything, it might give Jansen some perspective that his job isn’t guaranteed. At least they have a big enough lead in the division, that they can experiment if need be.
In a more detailed article in LA Times, Roberts essentially admits that he’s had a hard time convincing Jansen to be as open to changing his approach as he should be, even using Kershaw as an object lesson for how that can be done. Jansen seems determined to continue riding the horse that brought him. It feels like the postseason depends on Roberts being able to convince him to alter his approach. It’s painful to think about a postseason scenario where that doesn’t happen, as if the Dodgers have any other good options.
How bout giving Urias a shot at the closer role when he gets back from suspension, and if Kenley hasn’t righted the ship by then?
Urias hasn’t yet pitched on consecutive days yet, still to this day. It’s also been reported that they are trying to work him up ti a starters workload, just in case rich hill doesnt builds up to a starter workload in time for the playoffs.
No chance Urias will be ready for a starting role this season or postseason. He isn’t eligible to return until Sept. 2. They are aiming to have him ready for starting next year. Best case scenario for this year is he’s got enough time in September to be in shape for the long relief role he’s filled all season.
I want Urias only for 1 inning, when He pitch more usually He give up runs
I love lamp
He should have more than 3 all-star appearances
Perhaps a scenario where a rookie comes up and throws smoke out of the bullpen and get’s hot (Dustin May?).
Clicked on Urias link to check his stats for this year. See he registered a negative FIP in his small sample size of last year’s stats. Didn’t know that was possible. Must be formidable to hit against a guy who even takes away runs you’ve already scored.
Funny, but it makes sense looking at the formula for FIP. He didn’t allow a HR or BB.
The woeful Pirates made Vasquez available to the Dodgers – maybe LA should have overpaid? Do we know what was the LA offer?
If the Dodgers offered May and Ruiz (and some much lesser 3rd piece), and the Pirates didn’t take it, I think that was foolish by the Pirates.
No way the Dodgers would have offered that much.
Why? The Indians gave up Clint Frazier and Justus Sheffield (plus others) for multiple years of Andrew Miller. The Dodgers would have gotten 4+ years of team control of an elite closer in his prime.
Does LA want to win a World Series, or do they want to win organization of the year? AF isn’t in Tampa anymore. If they lose because of a bad bullpen, the LA media will have a field day roasting Friedman. The Dodgers have a great team, but a flawed bullpen. Maybe they can fix it with internal options.
Maybe not.
Flags Fly Forever…
I wasn’t talking about what they SHOULD have done. I was talking about what they WOULD (or would not) have done. Friedman doesn’t do deals like that. He likes to keep his top prospects.
If Friedman didn’t keep the top prospects for the past 3 seasons, we wouldn’t be where we are right now.
We don’t know what the Dodgers offered for Vasquez only that the Pirates didn’t bite. Ruiz could have been in play but I suspect May wasn’t, and he doesn’t seem like the best target for the Pirates anyway since he is competition ready now and the Pirates aren’t. Not much point in trading for a player whose team control clock will start ticking years before the team is a position to use him to good advantage. Seems like the Pirates should have been targeting prospects a bit further away from the majors. The Dodgers have a good selection in addition to Ruiz. All we know is it didn’t happen.
I think that May and Lux were untouchable and I’m ok with that
True but look what happened to Manny Machado and Yu Darvish.
The Dodger pen will prevent them from winning the WS as it has the past few years. This is squarely on Friedman who has done little to address this ongoing problem. If you are all in then fix it!
Jansen’s arm is turning into toast. He’s lost 6 mph off his fastball. The Dodgers overused him the last 2 years in the postseason and now he’s on the decline. He’ll never be the same again.
Not that much. His velocity is down 2-3 MPH., typical of a pitcher beyond age 30. Aging pitchers have to be open to altering their approach. So far, Jansen hasn’t been, and that’s the problem, not some “overuse” phantom.
That’s a fresh batch of Best Fan material in case anyone wonders what all the stink is.
There aren’t many dominant closers in the game today. Kenley is getting older, and his body can not deliver like it used to. Same thing happened with Clayton last year. He gave up a lot more homers than he ever had, and folks were very concerned about the drop in velocity.
Kenley is a professional who signed a big contract with the one team who made his career. The man has integrity. He is not indifferent to losing. He has a long successful resume, and he will figure this out.
Saves is one of those stats that don’t make any sense outside of fantasy leagues. Baseball would benefit if there was a shift in the paradigm.
Saves are one of the most important stats when it comes to pitching and the teams that win it all have someone that comes in and gets those “saves” and finishes the game off…it’s pretty simple if you don’t get those “saves” you don’t win close ball games
The purpose is to win the ballgame. The statistic is Saves. There is a difference between what qualifies for a stat and what is necessary to win ballgames.
The stat is what gets these guys paid, but the true value of the player goes beyond that simple understanding.
I believe in Kenley but if he does turn it around before October I’d give Dustin May the ball in the 9th and tell him to throw 105
Jansen needs to go watch some Trevor Hoffman videos and learn the change-up…something he should have done 5 years ago!
He did fine today. The yankees hit a bunch of dribblers and then sanchize struck out with the bases loaded.