As I watched last night’s Braves-Mets game, the already fascinating NL East bullpen dynamics really came into view. Here we have four clubs — those two, plus the Nationals and Phillies — with big expectations and major core talent, all trying to get past season-long relief woes.
Odds are, none of these clubs will truly put the ’pen problems behind them between now and the end of the season. Even if one or more teams get on a relief roll, you just know that fans — and, quite likely, each club’s uniformed and non-uniformed personnel — will have near-constant butterflies as soon as the starter hits the showers.
Honestly, it’s exciting. The Braves still hold a commanding lead, but the Nats are close enough that they can’t assume anything. Plus, they have to hone their late-inning approach for the postseason. The other three clubs will obviously be going all out to eke out every possible win from here to the finish line, knowing full well how tight the Wild Card race (if not also the division) will be down the stretch.
The Nats and Mets have received brutal overall results from their relief units all season long. In terms of ERA, their units rank second and third-worst in baseball, surpassed only by the lowly Orioles in the frequency of earned-runs allowed. While the Nationals’ rightly-maligned unit has probably received the most attention, it is the only one of the four that checks in above replacement level (only barely) by measure of FIP-based fWAR. The Mets, Braves, and Phillies are all in the black by that metric. Of course, the Nats’ relief corps is the runaway league leader in net win-percentage deducted (as opposed to added), so it has well earned its reputation for unreliability.
Recent developments have shifted the picture, but haven’t necessarily improved the outlook. The Phillies’ health issues are worsening, with David Robertson down for the year and Adam Morgan recently hitting the shelf. Closer Hector Neris has at least been back on the upswing of late. The Mets’ steadiest reliever, Seth Lugo, was just roughed up last night; their most talented pen arm, Edwin Diaz, has still not emerged from his season-long doldrums. Both of those clubs forewent opportunities to improve at the deadline and have been picking up veterans discarded by other teams. The Nationals did make some notable but modest deadline acquisitions and have received good work from them so far. But overworked closer Sean Doolittle hasn’t been his reliable self and the unit as a whole remains quite underwhelming. While the Braves surely added the most pen talent at the deadline, their new arms have been anything but conquering heroes. Shane Greene, Mark Melancon, and Chris Martin have combined to allow 19 earned runs in 15 1/3 innings in Atlanta. As a whole, the Atlanta relievers have been particularly awful over the past thirty days.
Any way you cut it, it seems reasonable to expect that we’re in for a thrilling roller-coaster the rest of the way. If you had to take one of these bullpen units for the next six weeks and a potential postseason run thereafter, which would it be? (It bears emphasizing that “best” is a relative term.)
(Poll link for app users.)
Nate. They have the most decent relievers
Nats
The Braves relievers (and fielders who have fumbled routine plays) have the baseball version of the yips. The numbers we normalize and they’ll be fine. Diaz of the Mets will be fine and I agree with Yankee on his Nats take.
Their AAA BP might be better than the majors. Wish Minter will figure it out as a setup man and Tucker Davidson and Thomas Burrows will be ready for a Sept promotion. At this rate, they may need Ian Anderson.
You should take the cue from spellchecker that you’re wrong about the Nats, whose BP owns a 6.03 ERA (29 of 30 teams) and only 0.01 points better than the lowly O’s.
They improved it st the deadline though, and Strickland/Elias/Doolittle can close out a game
Elias is on the DL with no projected return date and Doolittle is gassed.
At almost dead last in MLB, they couldn’t get worse. And their improvement comes from the 24th ranked SEA BP in the form of Strickland who has been on the IL almost the whole season and Elias who currently is on the IL. They can all close out games, but they’re not. That’s the point.
Braves bullpen has some poltergeist roaming around…as soon as a reliever steps foot in the pen their talent-soul gets snatched away…sheesh
I have the most faith in the Mets. NYM and WSH both have at least 3 starters that can get you 6/7 innings a game so therefore you need less innings from relief. I have more faith in the Mets combination of relievers than the Nats to get those 6-9 outs a game. Gsellman, Lugo, Diaz, and Familia are based off their history better
Shane Greene and Chris Martin will right the ship because they have quality stuff. Melancon, Swarzak, Newcomb, Jackson, Blevins, and roster adds from Gwinnett give the Braves upside. They just need to define the roles. Interested to see how Anderson and Wright contribute down the stretch.
They have a logjam of arms in Gwinnett, surely they can find 1-2 semi-competent relievers from the bunch. September roster expansion should be an open audition for these guys.
No option for the marlins? Lol
before the deadline they were easily the best…which is sad
We were told that few if any contenders were willing to surrender anything of value for rentals. And now some of these same teams are bemoaning the performance of their newly-built bullpens?
Seriously though.
A lot of movement of prospects in the 15-30 range for clubs…. but outside of the Greinke, Bauer and Stroman (and maybe Greene) deals we didn’t see any top 10 guys get moved.
Fangraphs’ numbers say first round picks have a nearly 60% bust rate. Chances of some of these guys turning into long term contributors is pretty slim…. but teams hold onto them like gold instead of upgrading for the stretch run.
‘Tis the era of overvalued prospects.
This shouldn’t even be a discussion. Outside of Neris, the Phillies bullpen is a AAA ‘pen at best given all the injuries and DFA/waiver wire pickups.
Biggest patchwork bullpen I believe I have ever seen. Amazing they can get anyone out.
They’re all terrible at this point.
The Phillies and the Braves are the most vulnerable here. The Mets and Nats have the ability to limit the exposure of their bullpens with their starting pitching. However, if Calloway doesn’t trust that starting pitching like he didn’t last night, he’ll put them in a position to have their bullpen let them down again.
The Braves offense does more to cover the bullpen than starters going an extra inning for the Nats and Mets
Braves far more likely to keep adding on in innings 7-9. I’d say they’re the least vulnerable, and their record proves it.
Don’t even think that’s up for discussion
Interesting how the team with the best overall numbers in win percentage so far (Phillies) are dead last in the voting, and the one team that leads the division in both relief ERA and WHIP (yes, it’s the Marlins) isn’t even a poll choice.
The Phillies will struggle more down the stretch due to their injuries. The Marlins are not in the poll because they are not contenders.
The article is about the bullpens in the NLE, and so is the poll.
Without trying to predict future struggles it’s easy to see that the Phillies have the have had the best relief unit of the four mentioned. Maybe that doesn’t continue but the readers here voting it dead last (and by a lot) seem to be missing what’s happened so far.
Bluesky summed it up
Braves have the most talent and depth. They haven’t been performing lately but with how volatile pens are, they have the ability to be much better. With all the talent at AAA/AA the depth might be the best too.
Seth Lugo is the best pitcher amongst all 4 bullpens. Plus most of the Mets negative bullpen marks are really just Familia and Diaz. Everyone else has been near average. Whereas with the other teams the entire bullpen is a constant disaster. So I’d choose the Mets, and then I’d just send Diaz and Familia home immediately.
Lugo had a bad outing last night, but those will happen at times. Diaz’s problems seem to be mental at this point as much as anything. Familia had been better lately, but in low leverage situations. They’ll be better off leaning on their starters like they did during their recent hot stretch.
Actually, Familia’s “low leverage” appearance gave the Mets the opportunity to rally last night. If Alonso (or Ramos) had hit the clutch homer I thought he might, Díaz would’ve had to have come in for the save opportunity since Lugo, Avilán and Familia were already used. I think that’s what Mickey would’ve done. Gsellman had thrown a couple innings the night before, I believe. Gagnon, Wilson and Brach were also used. They need to get Díaz righted.
Seth Lugo, closer or Seth Lugo, setup man?
The Mets negative marks extend beyond Familia and Diaz. Gsellman has been pretty bad this year, and the guys who have been shuttling back and forth from Syracuse don’t belong in the majors: Gagnon, Rhame, Peterson, Oswalt, Bashlor, Zamora, Nogosek, Pounders, Mazza, Sewald, Flexen.
Im going with the Marlins.
Yeah same here and I don’t even remember who’s in the Marlins’ bullpen.
Poll should say, “who will blow less games down the stretch” instead. Pretty sure every teams bullpen in the NL is average to below average at best lol
Braves, by default.
True the Nats have the worst in the division if looking at the full season (2nd worst in MLB behind the O’s), but looking at stats in the 2nd half of the season (since the All Star Break), the Braves have the worst pen in all of MLB.
Only thing to sum up this poll, NL East pens are the worst in MLB. This poll is like saying whose the best dumpster of all dumpsters. The winner is still a dumpster.
The Marlins do have the better pen of the group polled, however they’re not in contention. Braves,Nats and Mets all have a chance to limit their BPs usage by starters going deeper, outside of Nola Phils don’t really have a deep starter right now. At this point they all have their issues, but when the AAA season ends and rosters expand the team with the most talent and depth will have the best shot in Sept. The team right now with depth is probably Atlanta. Between Anderson, Wilson, Touki, Minter, Weigel Parsons, Sobotka, Walker, Webb, Wright and Ynoa we should be able to find one or two of these guys to be effective and bolster the pen.
Marlins are really heading in the right direction imo. I find them to be a very interesting team in another 2 years. Wonder how many of their guys they are going to keep. seemed like they had a great core of stanton yelich ozuna and they ended up selling all of them. Imagine if they did not trade them. Issue is nobody really seems to want to play in MIA.
Do people still want to argue with me in regards to Swanson being the biggest missing piece on this team?
Swanson being out is HUGE for us one the defense side of the spectrum and has been more consistent at the plate up till the injury as well. Watching Johan these last few games bungle the easy plays has been really frustrating. Doesn’t help our BP guys when anything hit to SS is 50/50 at best right now. I wouldn’t mind bringing in Hechaveria (sp) and see if he can’t at least provide defense. We all know he’s not going to hit for sh*t but for a couple of weeks we can live with it in the 8spot until Dans is back.
Winning this poll is like winning the special olympics
“…you just know that fans — and, quite likely, each club’s uniformed and non-uniformed personnel — will have near-constant butterflies as soon as the starter hits the showers.”
That’s the truth! Can hardly watch after the seventh inning anymore. Most of these teams need minimum 4 to 6 run lead to be somewhat secure in last innings.
The “juiced” baseballs?
FYI in the black is a good thing. I think you’re trying to say the Mets, Braves, and Phillies are all in the red
IF Díaz can get back to being a 2.5 ERA guy – which basically means getting the HR/9 back down – the Mets will be fine. Lugo, Wilson, and Familia would combine with Diaz for 2-3 IP/night, which would be enough with the Mets starters generally going 6+. Anything they get from Gsellman and Brach and Avilan would be gravy.
Atlanta is #2. They’ve got lots of good arms, and the new guys will settle down, but none of their arms is as strong as Diaz or Doolittle.
Nationals are a tale of two cities. If their starters go long (which happens more when Max is healthy), they can hide their weak middle relief. If not, fuggedaboudit!
Phillies are a train wreck. And the health issues will grow as overuse of the few reliable arms mounts.
Has to be Braves, though if Diaz and Familia play up it will be close.
Maybe the Braves should have kept Allard and tried him in relief? Which team is so deep in pitching that they can use a starter in the bullpen?
Historically, you know who has the best bullpen? The team with the best starting rotation. Bullpens don’t become overworked and are better equipped entering the post-season. That’s probably been the Braves so far.
There is no right or wrong answer. They all just suck miserably bad.
I don’t understand how anyone could click on the WPA link and select anyone other than the Nationals. almost 9 losses on the BP, the next closest being Baltimore with 5. and the Mets, Braves and Phillies all sit between 0-1. It’s not close…
And by not vote i mean vote for. I had the poll backwards. Whoops.
I’m taking the Nats. They’ll fix their bullpen problem because they’re the only team capable of doing so.