We spend most of our time at this particular corner of the internet focused on payrolls and rosters. The tendency of contemporary baseball analysis is to seek value; to appreciate (in the full sense of the word) the role of fortune and the impossibility of predicting which players will come through in big moments.
But who among us doubts that some have icier veins, or hotter-burning competitive fires? Or that some leaders are better than others at spurring their charges to play at their best … or make the right decision in a key moment? We may not be able to make statistically valid assessments of these characteristics in advance, but it doesn’t feel especially bold to suggest that some players and some teams have more than just a lucky bounce of the ball to credit for their high-leverage triumphs.
That brings us to the topic of this morning’s poll: the Nationals, baseball’s perennial postseason underperformers, who just finished off a stirring run through the National League. You know the essentials of this tale already. The Nats’ four previous divisional series were exceptionally competitive, featuring mind-blowing twists and turns. All ended in defeat for the D.C. team, which always seemed to come up just short at the pivotal juncture.
Not so this time. The Nats came roaring back in the regular season after a dismal start. They returned from the brink of elimination in the Wild Card game against the Brewers, scraping together a comeback against one of the game’s most dominant short-appearance pitchers. They not only pushed the powerhouse Dodgers to a fifth game but won it, overcoming an early deficit and outshining L.A.’s stars in crunch time. And the Nationals finally put to rest their earliest postseason demons — those summoned by Yadi and co. back in 2012 — by thoroughly destroying the Cardinals in a four-game NLCS sweep.
It’s a talented roster, to be sure. But the recent-vintage Nats have never lacked in talent, stars and otherwise. What is actually different this time around? It’s nearly an impossible thing to analyze with any amount of scientific precision. But it’s an essential question to ponder for those that care about winning baseball championships.
I’ve compiled a few … theories, I guess we will call them. What say you? (Poll link for app users.)
No Bryce, that’s easy, plus martinez is a good manager, was finally able to do his thing with Harper gone who wouldn’t buy in. It’s always just been about himself.
That’s ridiculous.
If Harper wasn’t buying in and is all about himself, then why were the Nationals the first to offer him the stupid money contract with the $30 AAV??
Merchandise and fanbase
To make the fans think the front office really wanted him.
“AndyMeyer
If Harper wasn’t buying in and is all about himself, then why were the Nationals the first to offer him the stupid money contract with the $30 AAV??”
_
That’s easy……
Because they knew he and Boras would turn it down.
In spite of the countess stories here last off-season about the Nationals jumping back into the bidding even after the young Lerner said the organization was moving on from Harper – Boras noted at the press conference when Entertainment Tonight’s favorite MLB player signed with the Phillies, that in fact the Nationals NEVER ONCE contacted him to make a counter offer after the initial offer was turned down.
And they signed Patrick Corbin
Can you give an example of how Bryce did not “buy in” or you just talking out of your rear end?
bryce had the tiki barber effect. barber retires, giants win super bowl
wordonthestreet;
Did you watch any Nationals games? The guy didn’t run out ground balls. He tried to pull every pitch for an HR when even hitting a ground ball to where the 3B should be playing (as he ignored the shift other teams put on him) would have resulted in clearing the bases of Nationals runners in a close game. He did not listen to the coaches – at one point bringing in his father to throw him BP before games in 2018 (the coaches seemed to do quite well bringing along Soto, Robles, Turner and others both at bat and in the field in 2019). He overthrew cut-off men to show off his arm which resulted on opposition baserunners taking extra bases, and subsequently scoring in close game. He ran into out of the base paths for no reason at all. Dropped dropped routine fly balls by styling it using one hand.
Multiple managers and coaches talked to him about those things for 6 years, and he ignored them all…..complaining to his agent to call the owner and get the manager and coaches off his case.
The guy was a total disaster.
I do give him credit for cleaning up his game some with the Phillies this year. But he has a long., long way to go. The hyperbole of calling him a “superstar” is just that. He’s a nice, All-Star player…..along with 30 other position players (same as Machado). He’s not Trout or Bellinger or Bellinger or Yelich or Altuve. The MVP position player of the Nationals for the last 5 years has been Anthony Rendon.
Dude you rambled this same nonsense a few days ago
“the guy was a total disaster”. Stop it
Was it his fault Drew Storen couldn’t pitch?
Was it his fault in ‘16 when his OBP in the playoffs was .458?
Or in ‘17 when Rendon, Turner, Werth and Zimmerman hit .176, .143, .167 and .150?
And sticking in 2017, was it Harper’s fault Gio Gonzalez and the mighty Max Scherzer coughed up 7 runs in game 5?
“I give him credit for cleaning up his game some with the Phillies this year, But he has a long, long, way to go”
Ok…..
“The MVP position player that last 5 years has been Anthony Rendon”
Based on what?
I’m starting to think that Andy Meyer is code for Bryce Harper. The fact is that Bryce and his crappy attitude left the building and the Nats are in the World Series. I need no more proof than that. Him going to play in the armpit of the United States was the best thing for that organization. Anthony Rendon is a better player it’s just the truth.
Way to knock Philly!
harper leaving
If you pick Harper leaving you’re a lazy narrative following oppurtunist.
Amen!
Why is that? If Harper stays they do not sign Corbin. Obviously you do not understand that
I guess. There’s no way of knowing though. I see a lot of people saying Harper is the reason they never won before though and they wouldn’t win if you put him on this team. Those people are morons.
Morons?
…except that’s exactly what just happened…they did never win before, but now without Harper they have…
So people that witness reality are morons? That sounds logical, but keep name calling, really helps your case
Your logic and reasoning completely goes out the window if Drew Storen does his job for one game….. or is that on Bryce…
we can wait and see how the phillies fare
or if zimmermann in 2014 tells his manager to f88k off, i got this (since the ring matt williams has is from 2001, a team that had not 1, but 2 pitchers that would have cussed the manager out had he tried to pull them out in that spot).
I’m not saying you’re wrong, but please explain why it couldn’t be Harper leaving.
I personally think it is a combination of several things! You add another ace caliber pitcher to give you 3 top notch pitchers and a little luck (literally the bounce of the ball in the wild card game).
You also add in the fact they seem to be having more fun this year thrn in seasons passed. Does that have to do with the fact Harper is no longer there? I certainly think there might be something to that at least.
I agree. My wording was poor in that initial post. Him leaving (probably) led directly to the Corbin addition, I just seen too many people saying he is the reason they lost before and would now and in turn blame him on the Phillies struggles.
By Harper leaving, they were able to DIVERSIFY their funds to other parts of the team, so basically yeah, him leaving played a massive role in that.
upvote that one
Or you just believe he is a clubhouse cancer. It’s pretty clear the chemistry is a lot better than in past years with this team. Coincidence that it happens when Harper leaves?
Then why do all his teammates like him? The only one he ever had beef with was Papelbon and he’s been through how many clubhouses? It’s pretty easy to see who the issue was in that situation.
The guy is a cancer, period. He’s ridden the hype his whole career and only truly produced for one entire season.
Adam Eaton is much more of a headcase than Harper, but he clearly didn’t impact the team.
It’s the pitching.
Adam Eaton is a “headcase”?
LOL
He actually mostly produced top OBP and OPS numbers on the Nationals during his time there. But sure, it’s Harper’s fault
Not if it’s the truth fanboy. Time to donate all your Harper jerseys to the local goodwill bud.
Bats and starting pitching both got hot at the right time. I hope the long layoff before the WS starts doesn’t cool them off.
Charles has my vote. Reminds me of the Giants when they got into the playoffs. In the regular season, they started slow, but there was too much talent on that team, especially with that starting pitching, to just wallow in mediocrity. That one game win against the Brewers lit a fire under them and they are just hot right now.
I just hope the layoff before the World Series doesn’t cool them off.
They had a tremendous offseason. Replacing the production of Bryce Harper with Juan Soto and Victor Robles, who in terms of WaR, were more valuable than Harper for a fraction of the price. The leftover money that was offered to Harper Went to solid FA signings like Howie Kendrick and Patrick Corbin who gave them 4 solid SP options for a potential playoff series.
Corbin, yes, but Howie Kendrick had been signed to a two-year deal in the previous offseason.
I think you have to look at Mon changing the ball for the playoffs when you deaden the ball to go with this pitching that’s like throwing napalm o. Gasoline for these flamethrowers.
Adding a third ace to the staff definitely helped but how can you vote against baby shark?
Can a Nats fan explain why losing a high performing player like Harper is a positive? I’m not suggesting he’s necessarily a HOF quality player, but a 4WAR guy has value. And, I honestly don’t have a bone in this one. Not a Phillies fan, not a Harper fan.
I’m not a Nats fan, but i’ll give it a go. Despite what some stat geeks would have you believe, baseball is not all about WAR.
The whole Harper tenure with the Nats was all about Harper and not the Nats. There was seemingly always some Harper buzz going on and that can grow old and grate on other players. Team chemistry is a valid thing and the Nats always had this looming storm cloud waiting to pour down with Harper on the team.
I think Harper’s absence has allowed many of their players to relax and just play.
They couldn’t relax with Harper getting all the media attention? Seems far easier to do so with that. They happened to go sign Corbin and a bunch of other guys got hot at the right time. Bryce leaving was a happy coincidence. Are they better in the long term without a 300 million dollar Bryce deal? Sure, but his presence would’ve made the team better today without a doubt. You can’t tell me you replace Eaton with Harper and the Nationals are suddenly a crap team. Don’t buy that for a half second.
When the media goes to each of the other players asking about Harper and now he’s gone, yeah they can relax more.
How would it not be distracting to have a spoiled brat getting all the attention, throwing hissy fits, etc.?
If the player in question was Barry Bonds would u think he could kill team chemistry to the point of losing his statistical value? We’ve all witnessed it.
And that’s before we mention how the Phillies underperformed in classic Harper team fashion in his first year there…
The dude’s a clubhouse cancer that’s too self centered to see that he’s the problem
Logical.
So it is Harper’s fault that McCutcheon tore his ACL, Robertson missed the whole year, Odubel Herrerra beat his girlfriend (allegedly), and the Phillies whole pitching staff had their worst individual seasons ever?
Bryce Harper must be the most influential and powerful supervillian ever.
It’s harpers fault the Phillies had 1 decent starter in their rotation? Is it his fault Mccutchen blew out his ACL? I think you’re blaming Harper for playing on an average team. That Phillies team was no better than 3rd in talent in that division. And you could certainly make an argument that the Mets had a more talented roster. This is just anti-Bryce BS to even start talking about the Phillies.
Pitching, pitching, pitching.
Plus, being aggressive at the plate.
Baby Shark
I’m stunned so many fail to see this.
Obviously Baby Shark
Baby Shark. Parra is the MVP.
Simple, the Nats have peaked at the right time and are on a roll. The extra days off will help the starting pitching. They’ll still be underdogs against the ALCS winner though.
That rotation is why! You have 3 starters who can go out and give you 7 every night, and a 4th who is no slouch in his own. Plenty of talent on the offensive side of the ball, as well as relative health compared to years past.
It all comes down to the way you manage a roster in postseason. You only use 4 Starters. The Nats have 3 amazing Starters and a decent veteran as #4. It’s tough to consistently get enough wins against Scherzer, Strasburg, and Corbin to win a series against the Nats. Plus they have a weak Bullpen but in Playoffs you just go to ur best guys over & over. So the lack of Depth isnt as crucial now. Plus sometimes they throw out a Starter to finish the game.
I think the Harper thing contributes a lot due to partially the money, but also the expectations I think went down a little once he left. I also definitely believe (as a dodger’s fan) it’s some luck of the ball bouncing the right way. We had a couple balls that died on the warning track and Joc missed a bases loaded double in game 4 by like inches. Tip your cap and well done nationals.
Bullpen has stabilized a bit when it’s been used due to the starters putting in work. I think you can’t dismiss the key veterans like Gomes, Zimmerman, Kendrick and Eaton coming up in clutch spots with key hits. Team has been clicking. Mix that with a little bit of that old postseason crapshoot and you’ve got a team flying high who could beat anyone.
I don’t know what the WS result will be but lets hope they keep fighting and give us a great series. Either way Nats fans have something to be proud of. At least some of them can take their minds of the Redskins for a couple weeks. lol
Can’t pick just one. Their success is a combo of:
1. Martinez: pulls the right strings especially as compared to Dusty and Williams, and seems much more popular with the players (also important)
2. Reinvesting some of the money earmarked to Harper into a 3rd frontline starting pitcher. A rotation with 3 All-Stars that shuts down teams in October. It’s odd to say this, but Corbin is probably more valuable to the Nats than Harper would have been. Rizzo gets the credit here.
3.. Timely hitting, especially from Juan “Miguel Cabrera” Soto
@richt;
Watched at least 75 Nationals games this year…..
The difference in 2019 has been that for the first time the individual players played strong fundamental baseball. While they had some physical errors, they played clean games in the sense that they threw to the right base on defense; they ran the bases aggressively but not stupidly; no one tried to be the big hero, all had belief that the other guys on the team would come up big; and they all listened to the coaches and manager.
Getting Harper off that team – where he expected special treatment – allowed all that to happen. Said it would last winter and it’s come true.
Baby Shark and Congrats to the Montreal Expos… I mean Washington Nationals…
I think it’s the bullpen, that should be listed. They could not finish games if their starters weren’t going 8 or 9 innings. Without those trades for bullpen arms they were dead in the water.
Doing something the Braves needed to do and need to do once again, spending on a pitcher like corbin. If you don’t have reliable strikeout pitchers in which you know what you’re going to get each and every start in the playoffs, you’re going to be an annual first round exiteer, cough cough.
But I thought Keuchel and Teheran were aces? At least that’s what a majority of Braves fans would have you believe…
Attitude is everything when you’re looked at as a leader on a team. Bryce has a horrible temper and attitude. That bleeds into the other players and the bullpen, hence why you had brawls breaking out in the dugout last year! The team needs to fight on the field against the opponent instead of fighting themselves. The only reason Washington offered a contract to Bryce was to keep from alienating the fan base that bought the early hype behind him. They cut the cancer away and look where they are now! They get a third ace caliber pitcher and let a host of young kids and veteran leaders come in and bond a team environment, then they have a championship caliber TEAM! There are no singularities in team sports. Sure some are better than others but the chemistry and comradeship has to gel to get where they are right now. Plain and simple.
has to be sorcery…and the fact that its the weird year that is 2019
The Nats always had a chance with Scherzer/Stras. Their bullpen and hitting lineup finally stepped up for change.
Nothing to due with Harper. Saw it in the 2005 White Sox. Pitching, pitching, and pitching. That’s what wins playoff games. Timely hitting and defense helps
The ‘05 Sox were the most balanced team I’ve ever seen. Great pitching, clutch hitting, speed, solid defense.
Definitely a combination of them all, but I chose “bounce of the ball.” Also not really a Bryce fan. He at least SEEMS like a “me, me, me” player and is a hot head on the field (and probably off)
Papelbon started the culture change when he got his World Championship pedigree in front of lazy man harper’s sad face. From there it was just a matter of time before they would be able to dance the jig.
The entire rotation is pitching better and longer (Anibal Sanchez too)
1/2 the pen is not being used.
The position players are being managed flawlessly.
Everyone is playing for the Nationals and not team Bryce.
The opposition is making unforced errors.
What changed?
He plays for the Phillies now.
Other!! Sometimes, you just have to get hot at the right time. We saw it with the Giants in ’10 and ’14, Kansas City in ’14, the Mets in ’15, the Red Sox in ’13, and we will see it many times again! The talent sure doesn’t hurt, come to think of it, it’s certainly a combination of things. I don’t think Bryce has anything to do with it, however.
Harper is ridiculously overpaid for what you get on the field. At this point, 2015 is the outlier. It is equally ridiculous to lay the blame solely on him for past playoff failures. For example, he hit three home runs in the Giants series if I remember correctly. We will see, obviously, the jury is still out on how the Phillies fare during his prime.
It’s a multitude of things, but probably Dave Martinez and the Starters turned relievers. I’ve noticed that more and more starting pitchers are being used out of the bullpen than ever before. Dave hasn’t been afraid to use all the big 3 in clutch spots and they came through for the most part. The Nationals had by far the worst bullpen out of all the teams in the playoffs yet here they are. I think that says a lot.
How about……Got hot at the right time…….?
What allowed the Nationals to win was tremendous starting pitching and a slumping Cardinals team. The Nats scored the majority of their runs with two outs with really good clutch hitting from Kendricks and most of the lineup. What a pleasure to watch a staff throw strikes.
People need to stop over-thinking and using their likes and dislikes to sway their responses…. The fact is, it took a combination of a several things to get the Nats get to where they are now, After all, you don’t get to this point in the post-season without having a talented roster.
That said, the largest portion of the credit has to go to the players themselves, who despite not being blessed with the best managerial decisions, or a coaching staff that was oftentimes less than impressive, they managed to turn themselves from being just a bunch of guys showing up, into a team of players standing and walking proud like the championship caliber team they are. Mike Rizzo can’t take credit this time around, because he only did what he “was allowed” to do, not what he wanted to do. Neither can Dave Martinez take or be given credit, he made more mistakes that a manager should be allowed, and this fan, after two years, is still waiting for Martinez to pull that game changing move out from under his cap. I wont even bother with the coaching staff, because the only thing they did consistently was collect a pay check. Heck, the Lerners and their budgetary constraints (extreme desire to remain under the luxury tax threshold) may have had more to do with the Nats being who and where they are today than coaching, management or anyone except for the players themselves.
Give credit where it’s due… And that’s to the players who lifted themselves above stumble-blocks, occasional bad judgements, (including their own) some not so great officiating and fans who thought they knew better, to be where they are now, waiting and ready to play in the World Series, THE WORLD F’ING SERIES!!! Think about it.
@KenzAFan;
Do you write for ‘The Onion’?
I’m not buying the Harper/cancer argument.
Adam Eaton is probably the biggest headcase in the league, yet his presence didn’t impact the team.
Clearly, the pitching staff combined with development of young players was key factor.
Maybe they don’t have the same resources with Harper. But by all indication they were willing to keep him and spend on Corbin. To that was the main factor is a stretch.
C’mon. 4 of the 5 series they had lost were very close game 5s. The NLDS this year very close g5. Its chance.
The bullpen finally came through when it was needed most.
A healthy Adam Eaton. Covers ground in the Outfield. Coincided with the emergence of Robles and Juan Soto replaces Bryce. Stable veteran catching from Gomes and Suzuki. Add the starting horses on the mound and you have a team that can win.
Trading for Yan Gomes to handle pitching staff was a smart move.
Patrick Corbins are more valuable than Bryce Harpers.
It also helps when guys like Daniel Hudson climb off the scrap heap and become Eckersley.
No matter what, Nats stole that trade with Toronto.
Combination baby shark AND Harper leaving
Going to be a very unpopular opinion I think, but how many millions of dollars will Anthony Rendon’s non-ironic goatee cost him? Honestly, it’s not a very powerful look. We all saw Moneyball. It makes him look like Kenny Powers. He should go all in on the beard or shave it all off. Club’s don’t want to pay $200 million for a guy with a goatee. It’ll certainly be gone by next March. Sounds ridiculous, but it’s actually a Thing.