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Offseason Outlook: Texas Rangers

By Jeff Todd | October 30, 2019 at 2:25pm CDT

The Rangers didn’t need a new ballpark, but they got one. They will have to improve in several parts of the roster if they’re to win in the first season at the just-built facility.

Guaranteed Contracts

  • Elvis Andrus: $43MM through 2022 (can opt out of remainder of contract this offseason)
  • Rougned Odor: $36MM through 2022 (includes buyout of 2023 club option)
  • Shin-Soo Choo: $21MM through 2020
  • Lance Lynn: $19MM through 2021 (includes $1MM signing bonus payment)
  • Jose Leclerc: $13.75MM through 2022 (includes buyouts of 2023-24 club options)
  • Mike Minor: $9.5MM through 2020
  • Jesse Chavez: $4MM through 2020
  • Jeff Mathis: $3MM through 2020

Arbitration-Eligible Players (service time in parentheses; projections via MLBTR contributor Matt Swartz)

  • Danny Santana – $3.9MM
  • Delino DeShields – $2.4MM
  • Nomar Mazara – $5.7MM
  • Rafael Montero – $900K
  • Joey Gallo – $4.0MM
  • Jesse Biddle – $600K
  • Non-tender candidates: Deshields, Biddle

Options

  • Nate Jones: $3.75MM club option ($1.25MM buyout)
  • Shawn Kelley: $2.5MM club option ($250K buyout)

Free Agents

  • David Carpenter, Logan Forsythe, Hunter Pence, Edinson Volquez

[Texas Rangers depth chart | Texas Rangers payroll outlook]

The Rangers have sat in an uncomfortable middle ground for the past three seasons, with a pair of 78-84 campaigns wrapped around a 67-95 dud. Payroll has moved south, but still topped $160MM by the end of the 2018 season and sat at $118MM on Opening Day in 2019.

Unsurprisingly, the roster construction efforts have mirrored the broader situation. The Rangers have spent some money and hit on a few free agents. Mike Minor and Lance Lynn succeeded beyond the wildest expectations on three-year deals while last year’s crop of low-cost talent delivered significant contributions from Hunter Pence, Danny Santana, and Logan Forsythe. But the club has also whiffed on others. Jeff Mathis, Asdrubal Cabrera, Shawn Kelley, Shelby Miller, and Zach McAllister absorbed a decent amount of payroll without delivering much in return. While Joey Gallo has emerged as a star-level performer, the results haven’t been as promising for Rougned Odor and Nomar Mazara.

It’s frankly difficult to see this club vaulting into serious contention in 2020 without some enormous strides from existing players and major additions from outside. The organization seems to have preferred a few years of fairly expensive mediocrity and foregone top draft picks as the price for avoiding a full-throated rebuild. There’s some honor in that. But it’s also time to get things moving forward.

There’s an argument to be made that president of baseball operations Jon Daniels ought to press ownership for a big payroll to launch the Rangers forward. The publicly funded stadium bonanza surely supports that concept. But it may not be wise to put the pedal all the way to the floor just yet, even accepting the premise that the organization can and should unleash the full potential of its pocketbook over the next several seasons. The Rangers have a whole host of needs and are separated by a yawning gap from the cross-state, division-rival Astros. Over-committing to too many veterans now, when the Rangers’ would-be core remains ill-defined, carries long-term roster-management risks. This winter demands careful navigation.

Gallo is a walking gap-filler on defense; he could slot in at any outfield spot or in the corner infield, though he hasn’t played third in some time and didn’t grade as well there. That flexibility will be important. The Rangers could move him around a la Cody Bellinger or let Gallo settle into whatever spot most needs it.

Otherwise, questions predominate. You could argue for a whole new outfield outside of Gallo. Shin-Soo probably should be limited all but exclusively to DH duties, where he’s a good-enough but hardly elite bat. Mazara hasn’t broken out of his league-average-ish hitting malaise; the Rangers will have to decide whether they can get him going or are better served letting another team have the shot. Delino DeShields Jr. runs like the wind but just hasn’t hit in the majors; he looks to be a reserve piece at most. And though Willie Calhoun has shown some promise with the bat, he’s anything but settled defensively.

Perhaps the Rangers would be best served shifting Calhoun in to first base rather than lining up Gallo on the dirt. The club may not be ready to give up entirely on Ronald Guzman, but it’d be awfully hard to hand over the first bagging duties to him after a .219/.308/.414 season. Across the way at the hot corner, the team still hasn’t settled on a permanent replacement for Adrian Beltre. Super-sub Danny Santana can help cover there, or just about anywhere else on the diamond, though it’s dubious whether he’ll repeat his high-BABIP, high-strikeout, power-surging 2019 success story. What of Nick Solak? The bat is intriguing, but there are questions surrounding the glove.

Let’s pause here to consider the scale of the challenge — and the volume of possible solutions. The Rangers could justifiably add something like three or four high-quality players to the corner infield/outfield mix, particularly if they find a deal they like for Mazara. Doing quite that much seems like a stretch, but the Rangers have picked up quite a few lower-cost veterans in recent years and surely will do so again. Given their positive experience with Beltre, perhaps a late-career fling with Josh Donaldson would make sense. Texas native Anthony Rendon is a bit of a dream scenario, but it’s quite possible to imagine at least some level of pursuit. There are loads of lower-cost vets that can slot in at either corner infield slot, with Mike Moustakas and Todd Frazier among the more prominent names. It isn’t hard to imagine a first bagger such as Justin Smoak, Yonder Alonso, or old friend Mitch Moreland finding his way to Texas. Likewise, the corner outfield market is full of possibilities that probably won’t break the bank. Even Marcell Ozuna may struggle to get a monster deal given the relative lack of urgent demand around the game. Nicholas Castellanos, Avisail Garcia, and Corey Dickerson are all reasonably youthful options.

That’s not all the Rangers must consider, however, even on the position-player side of the coin. We touched briefly upon the center field situation. That could be solved by planting Gallo out there every day, but it wouldn’t be surprising to see the Rangers prefer to ease the burden by also lining him up at first base. DeShields has historically been better against left-handed pitching, so perhaps he could handle center when southpaw starters oppose the Rangers. If Gallo is deployed elsewhere entirely, a center field platoon might include a veteran such as Jon Jay, Jarrod Dyson, or (another) old friend Leonys Martin. Should the club go looking for everyday options, it’ll need to get creative. Pirates star Starling Marte would obviously fit quite nicely, but that’ll take quite a bit of creativity for Daniels, especially with so many other teams likely to have interest in Marte given the meager open-market alternatives. More realistic, perhaps, is Japanese star Shogo Akiyama. He seems to have fixed his gaze on the majors; Daniels has always kept a close watch over the top Asian leagues. Perhaps they’ll make eye contact.

Oh, and it’s not as if the other up-the-middle spots are locked and loaded. Elvis Andrus is not going to opt out and it’d be tough to move enough of Odor’s contract to make it worth dealing him now, so the double-play combo is intact. But that underwhelming unit needs to step up big-time and the club can’t presume that’ll occur. At the same time, it’s hard to see how it can give up on the duo given their contracts. Santana and Solak factor here, though the former hasn’t been trusted much at short and the latter hasn’t played there at all. Having them to work in makes it less likely that the Rangers will spend on a sturdy veteran that can handle some time at second, though a move for a Forsythe type can’t be ruled out — particularly with a laundry list of useful names floating around free agency.

The catching situation is at least as big of an issue, albeit one that may not be susceptible of much near-term change. Mathis had an unfathomably bad season with the bat (.158/.209/.224) and understudy Jose Trevino hardly shined (.258/.272/.383 with just three walks in 126 plate appearances). It’s nice that Isiah Kiner-Falefa can play behind the dish or elsewhere on the diamond, but he also lacks promise with the bat. You can swallow some poor offensive output from defensively exceptional backstops, but it’s rough to have a black hole in the lineup.

What the Rangers can hope is that Mathis and Trevino will squeeze value out of a largely uninspiring pitching staff. Lynn and Minor were stunningly valuable in 2019 — they accounted for 11 of the club’s net 14.2 pitching fWAR — but it seems fair to presume at least a bit of regression for each. A group of youthful southpaws — Kolby Allard, Brock Burke, Joe Palumbo, and (if healthy) Taylor Hearn — will battle for opportunities despite poor results in their earliest MLB showings. There are a few other depth arms and rising prospects, but several of the team’s better-regarded farmhands are still a ways off. It’d be disappointing to see Ariel Jurado and Adrian Sampson occupy more than 120 frames apiece once again (unless the club can find a way to put one or both into another gear, at least). Pending supplementation, it’s tough to see this rotation mix as contention-worthy.

There’s some room for improvement in the bullpen. Jose Leclerc still has an electric arm. The Rangers will continue trying to help him find consistency and an appropriate role after dabbling with him as a closer and opener in 2019. It’ll be interesting to see fireballer Emmanuel Clase in his sophomore effort. Rafael Montero was a way-post-hype revelation and should occupy a prominent role. Jesse Chavez will try to bounce back and provide stability. Some of the aforementioned starter candidates could end up in the pen, while the Rangers may hope to get a worthwhile contribution from Ian Gibaut, Jeffrey Springs, or others.

So, what’s the path to improving the pitching? After hitting on two against-the-grain pitching contracts — going to the third year to land Minor and Lynn — the club could seek another opportunity of that ilk. Michael Pineda might represent an under-the-radar candidate for a relatively longer, lower-AAV outlay. The Rangers could also look at the highest reaches of the market. Gerrit Cole and Stephen Strasburg may or may not be legitimate targets, but the Texas org could certainly afford to spend in the next tiers (Zack Wheeler, Madison Bumgarner, Hyun-Jin Ryu, Jake Odorizzi, Dallas Keuchel). And this year’s market has quite a few steady veteran types that ought to be available on cheaper, one-year deals. It wouldn’t be surprising to see the Rangers end up with Ivan Nova or Brett Anderson. The team could also roll the dice on Michael Wacha or Alex Wood.

Free agency also obviously offers some relief solutions. A big move for a closer feels unlikely, but there’s a typical smattering of useful veterans kicking around. If the Rangers prefer a hurler with some closing experience, they could look to someone on the order of Steve Cishek. Perhaps a reunion with the under-the-radar excellent Chris Martin — an Arlington native who the Rangers brought back from Japan — would make sense for all sides.

Needless to say, options abound. It’ll also be interesting to see whether the Rangers can gain any traction in trade talks involving pitching. This club isn’t exactly overburdened with top prospects knocking down the door to the majors and won’t be anxious to move its best farm pieces. But the Rangers do have an interesting asset to market in the form of Mazara’s contract rights. He could be of interest to a variety of teams that would like a crack at his upside; packaged with other young talent, Mazara might help deliver a useful arm back to Texas. It’s even possible that Minor or Lynn could still pop up in trade talks if there’s an avenue for the Rangers to improve their mid-term outlook by kicking the contention can down the road a bit further, though the fact that a deal hasn’t yet occurred is a good indication that the Texas org values those contracts quite a bit.

One way or another, we’re likely to see quite a few fresh names on the backs of Rangers jerseys in 2020. Daniels and co. will need to be clever to make strides in the standings while also setting the team up for a much-anticipated return to glory.

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2019-20 Offseason Outlook MLBTR Originals Texas Rangers

Orioles Claim Pat Valaika, Announce Four Outrights
Main
AL Notes: Vogelbach, Rangers, Red Sox, A’s
View Comments (43)
Post a Comment

43 Comments

  1. macstruts

    6 years ago

    Moving into a new ballpark, this is going to be an interesting off-season.

    I have no idea what they will do.

    1
    Reply
  2. baseballanalytics

    6 years ago

    Could trade Lynn to someone like the Padres and get some interesting pieces back.

    Reply
    • lowtalker1

      6 years ago

      Lol no

      4
      Reply
      • baseballanalytics

        6 years ago

        You don’t think Lynn has trade value right now? Or you don’t want him to be traded? Because he could definitely return some interesting prospect(s).

        Reply
  3. eeddiiee909

    6 years ago

    crazy didnt think they had a 160 million payroll last year

    Reply
    • Modified_6

      6 years ago

      I think that was the end of 2018. 2019 was 118 million on opening day, and it seems like we trade higher salaries than we brought in during the season.

      Reply
  4. Fire Jon Daniels

    6 years ago

    You have to imagine at some point there would have to be some level of accountability for JD. He has coasted on 2 pennants from 8 and 9 years ago respectively for much longer than any other professional sports executive I can remember.

    1
    Reply
    • mizdfw

      6 years ago

      Do you remember winning the division in 2015 and having the best record in the AL in 2016? Yes, they failed in the playoffs, but don’t act like they’ve been bums since 2011. It’s put up or shut up time for JD in the next year or two, but he’s far from coasting.

      3
      Reply
    • Tha Dilla

      6 years ago

      Tom Grieve was GM for 10 seasons and didnt win jack. JD should get 20 years based on those pennants.

      1
      Reply
      • jorge78

        6 years ago

        Much as I liked Grieve as a player, he wasn’t much as
        a GM…..

        Reply
        • RockHard

          6 years ago

          He wasn’t much as
          a Broadcaster either…

          Reply
    • Tha Dilla

      6 years ago

      JD made some good moves last season trading for Koby Allard and Brock Burke two good promising young pitchers.

      2
      Reply
    • Ricky Adams

      6 years ago

      Cant blame jd for all of the rangers woes. Yes, hes made some bad trades, but there were 2 thin free agent classes recently, and when ownership rolls back payroll 25% from 160is million to 120ish million in a 4 yr period, u cant blame jd for those 2 things. Yea, the prince and lucroy trades were terrible but the minor, lynn, santana, pence acquisitions were brilliant

      1
      Reply
    • bleedingrangerblue

      6 years ago

      Why do you continually hate on JD so much. He laid the groundwork for what was a run of 2 back to back World Series appearances and a string of the most successful teams we have had in franchise history. Yes he has made some bad moves, just like every single GM in the game to date has. Take a look at Rangers finishes since the Teixeira trade(which was JD’s move)
      2008 – 2nd place in the AL West
      2009 – 2nd
      2010 – 1st (World Series berth)
      2011 – 1st (World Series berth)
      2012 – 2nd (Wildcard berth)
      2013 – 2nd
      2014 – 5th
      2015 – 1st
      2016 – 1st (best record in AL)

      Yes the past 3 seasons have been bad finishes, but also under the premise of an un-admitted rebuild with limited budget restraints coming from ownership group. Name me a better long term GM in the past 10 with that good of track record outside of the big time money spenders.

      Reply
  5. heartbrokentexassportsfan

    6 years ago

    28 years I’ve been a Rangers fan…don’t know why. I feel this team is one giant question mark. Gave up so much for those world series runs and they were awesome. I’ll forever hate Nelson Cruz for not catching that ball.

    3
    Reply
    • thatdude07

      6 years ago

      you;d think in that situation, they would have put in a defensive replacement that late in the game. Not sure what their bench was at that point but Cruz should not have been out there late in a close game.

      2
      Reply
      • thatdude07

        6 years ago

        you’d**

        Reply
      • ajnrules

        6 years ago

        Really the only outfield option at that point was Esteban German. The saddest thing was that the Rangers burned Endy Chavez on a pinch-hitting appearance in the top of the ninth, then opted not to do a double switch to get Chavez onto the field alongside Feliz. He wasn’t the defensive powerhouse that he was back in the mid-2000s, but surely he would have been better than Cruz. This seems like a case of Washington not realizing the flexibility he had at his disposal, or he wanted too much for Cruz to be on the field during the final out a la Buckner/Stapleton.

        1
        Reply
        • jessethomas599

          6 years ago

          Craig Gentry was also on the bench in Game 6. He would have caught that ball 100% of the time. With his speed, he would have been underneath that ball and it would have been a slightly more than routine fly ball to the warning track…

          1
          Reply
        • Mb_25

          6 years ago

          Craig Gentry started the game. He was unavailable.

          Reply
      • jorge78

        6 years ago

        Because Washington knows how to lose WS games. Like bringing in the same RP in
        consecutive games against
        the SF and the pitcher gives up a HR (again!) against the same batter…..

        1
        Reply
      • bzincked

        6 years ago

        We had a defensive replacement but Wash wanted to leave Cruz in till the end for reward in helping get them there, Cruz was great but that decision hurt.

        Reply
    • jorge78

      6 years ago

      Fan for 46 years. I remember some lean times…..

      Reply
    • neoncactus

      6 years ago

      The Rangers lost that game when Washington replaced Feliz with Darren Oliver.

      2
      Reply
  6. jorge78

    6 years ago

    With Global Warming!!??
    Darn tootin’ they needed
    a new ballpark!

    2
    Reply
  7. TopGun22

    6 years ago

    Gallo needs to be in RF, and Calhoun in LF. That leaves Mazara as the odd man out. We should be able to fill most positions adequately with internal options, with the possible exception of 3B if Solak can’t handle it, in which case someone like Donaldson on a 2-3 year deal becomes an option. Santana likely gets first shot at CF. They should raise payroll quite a bit going into the new stadium, and the vast majority of that money needs to go to a #1 or #2 type SP to slot in with Minor/Lynn and 2 of the young guys.

    Reply
    • jorge78

      6 years ago

      Gallo is a good CF…..

      1
      Reply
      • TopGun22

        6 years ago

        Gallo is certainly a passable CF. But, I don’t believe the Rangers want him to play CF full time because of the toll it takes on his body.

        1
        Reply
  8. Hiro

    6 years ago

    Where is the service time?

    Reply
  9. Socrates Curveball

    6 years ago

    Rangers undoubtedly feel pressure to create buzz given the opening of their new Park. But they should be patient. Let the talent in the system develop and then venture into FA waters as the window on the Astros begins to tighten in 2021-.

    1
    Reply
    • jorge78

      6 years ago

      I believe Socrates threw a
      hemlock ball…..

      2
      Reply
    • Ejemp2006

      6 years ago

      Um, the Astros window might close sooner than expected.
      The Rangers could mash their way into relevance next year behind 60 plus dingers from Gallo. They could take the West with some good Ranger luck combined with bad Astro luck.

      Reply
      • khog143

        6 years ago

        It starts closing this year. Losing Gerrit Cole, which is pretty much inevitable, is the first step. After next season their entire outfield except Kyle Tucker is free. Then after 2021 is Correa, Verlander and Greinke. While they might be able to resign Correa, and certainly have some prospects available to possibly fill some of those gaps, it’s hard to imagine it’ll be the same dominant team

        Reply
    • Ricky Adams

      6 years ago

      Rangers dont have a good track record of developing their pitching. Werent danks, diamond, volquez, justin thompson, and mccarthy all supposed to be top of rotation pitchers? They all wound up falling off or doing it for other teams. It says alot that their biggest success stories have been derek holland and cj wilson

      Reply
  10. tsc32

    6 years ago

    Trade Maz. Start Calhoun and Gallo. Start Solak as well. Don’t care if we don’t get much. Odor has got to go. He’s a complete waste of space.

    1
    Reply
  11. jorge78

    6 years ago

    Breaking News: Josh Harrison has been arrested in the Dallas area!
    No, not for drugs!
    He allegedly physically abused his
    step daughter.
    It isn’t even his child and he is
    divorced from the mother.
    Why hasn’t he walked away
    to party alone?
    More details to come.
    Not from me…..

    Reply
    • John Kappel

      6 years ago

      It could also be Josh Hamilton getting arrested.

      1
      Reply
  12. PieroBr

    6 years ago

    Dear Jeff Todd, Asdrubal Cabrera, platoon bat, 91 RBI in 2019. Reliable clutch bat both during the regular season and in the playoffs …. for the Nationals???

    Uhm have you considered the possibility that it might be the “culture” associated with the Texas Rangers and not the player?

    So, you have to wonder what Cabrera will say about the Rangers when other free agent players call and ask him about his experiences.

    Texas Rangers the organization: FAIL. Not the players.

    2
    Reply
    • User 1104686089

      6 years ago

      Wow! What a silly comment. Sometimes guys just need a change of senery or situation to be successful. All things considered this was a pretty successful year for the Rangers. Multiple vets worked out nicely, no reason to think the organization has a culture problem at all.

      Reply
  13. Ricky Adams

    6 years ago

    Rangers dont have a good track record of developing their pitching. Werent danks, diamond, volquez, justin thompson, and mccarthy all supposed to be top of rotation pitchers? They all wound up falling off or doing it for other teams. It says alot that their biggest success stories have been derek holland and cj wilson

    Reply
  14. Soapbox

    5 years ago

    40+ year Ranger fan. Baseball is much like horse racing, you just never know about players. Jon Daniels seems to have lost it the past three winters having produced no improvement to the team. Why? Is it the owners or GM. The talent given is the talent coaches have to work with. One thing that is a fact, JD has traded away better talent than he kept in many cases. I am not convinced this is a rebuild, more like hanging on.

    Reply
    • khog143

      5 years ago

      What are you on about? The Mike Minor and Lance Lynn signings are literally two of the best pitching deals in all of baseball right now, outside of players still on rookie contracts or in arbitration. Both got Cy Young votes last year, and both are making only $10m per season. Also, the Kluber trade is extremely low risk due to the pieces we gave up, and could end up being a home run. Obviously, the jury is still out on that. And this is without mentioning the Danny Santana signing last offseason, which was an incredible signing for no money at all.

      Addressing the trades, he made several great in season trades last year. Would you rather have Nick Solak, who came up and hit around .290 with some pop in a little over 100 ABs, or Pete Fairbanks, a reliever with a 7ish ERA? Would you rather have Profar, who hit around .210 with around 10-15 errors in the field, or Brock Burke, a pitching prospect? Would you rather have Chris Martin, a reliever, albeit a very good one, or Kolby Allard, a 22 year old left handed former first round pick that looked like he had something late in the season.

      I would argue every trade, at least notable trade (not including things like trading a PTBNL or cash for Jake Petricka) Daniels has made in the last year has been at least good, if not great.

      Reply
  15. Soapbox

    5 years ago

    The Angeles picked up one of the best managers in baseball and some talent. They should be an improved team. I think the White Socks have had the best overall winter. Be interesting to see what their coaches can do with their talent level. Seattle and Texas will be fighting for the bottom of the West. Astro’s will be in a battle with either Oakland or LA for 1st.

    Reply

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