The first anniversary of the Mets’ hiring of Brodie Van Wagenen is fast approaching. There have been some ups and downs, as might be expected. He’s currently looking for a new skipper and plotting a course for the coming offseason. One thing that is clear: the Mets are trying to win now. Van Wagenen’s task is to end a three-year postseason drought. But he’s going to have a tough time adding to his existing slate of talent unless he’s handed a larger purse to work with this winter. It’s not exactly a new situation in Queens, but it’s one worth examining anew with the market soon set to open.
The win-now mission was already evident, but its immediacy was highlighted and enhanced by the organization’s mid-summer transactions and non-transactions. On July 12th, the Mets sat 11 games under .500. By the time they had agreed to acquire Marcus Stroman on July 28th, they had closed that to five games under. And on the day after the deadline, the Queens denizens were three shy of even and in the middle of a wondrous hot streak that totally flipped the script on the season.
Trouble was, the Mets’ fate was always been tied inextricably to stumbles from the teams ahead of them. And they needed more than they could get. The Mets matched or bested a laundry list of mid-level National League teams. That was something of an accomplishment. But the outcome — no realistic hope entering the final week of the season — was exceedingly likely at the time of the deadline. With so many teams clustered ahead of the Mets late this summer, it was all but inevitable that a few would emerge. As it turned out, two of those ballclubs played about as well as the Mets have over the final two months of the campaign. With their preexisting advantages, the Nats and Brewers cruised ahead of their rivals in New York. This is why those playoff odds charts seemed so gloomy in late July.
So what was the point of that win-now-oriented deadline approach? Well, it certainly put more butts in the seats down the stretch. It helped breathe life into what had been a moribund season. It enabled the Mets to return to the ranks of the winning (86-76) and perhaps launched some forward momentum.
More importantly, though, this past summer’s decisionmaking was the start of the construction of the 2020 roster. Adding Stroman, while dumping Jason Vargas, was mostly salary-neutral for 2019. But it put a big number on the books for 2020 and cost the Mets one near-majors hurler (along with a further-off prospect). Hanging onto Zack Wheeler, who seems exceedingly likely to receive and decline a qualifying offer, meant foregoing a chance to recoup upper-level prospect depth in preference for a half season of Wheeler’s pitching and likely draft compensation.
Taking on Robinson Cano’s contract and sacrificing some intriguing prospects to get Edwin Diaz had already set the Mets down this trail. The 2019 trade deadline was Van Wagenen and co. pressing bravely on for glory rather than seeking a path back to relative safety.
So … let’s take stock of where the Mets stand with the offseason upon us. Juan Lagares and Todd Frazier are off the books, but that doesn’t mean there’s money to spend on replacements or other upgrades. Here are some of the major expenses that are either locked in or all but assured to be picked up:
Guaranteed Salary
- Yoenis Cespedes: $29MM
- Robinson Cano: $20.25MM (net of Mariners’ portion of obligation)
- Jacob deGrom: $23MM salary ($12MM deferred); $10MM signing bonus payment 1/2/20
- Jed Lowrie: $9MM salary; $1MM bonus payment in 11/15/19 & $500K bonus payment 1/15/20 (contract also includes $2.5MM bonus payment 1/15/21)
- Wilson Ramos: $9.25MM
- Jeurys Familia: $11MM ($1MM deferred)
- Justin Wilson: $5MM
- Total: $105MM payable during 2019-20 offseason/2020 season
Projected Arbitration Salaries
- Marcus Stroman – $11.8MM
- Noah Syndergaard – $9.9MM
- Steven Matz – $5.3MM
- Michael Conforto – $9.2MM
- Edwin Diaz – $7.0MM
- Seth Lugo – $1.9MM
- Brandon Nimmo – $1.7MM
- Robert Gsellman – $1.2MM
- Total: $48MM (assuming non-tender of Joe Panik, $5.1MM projection)
Other Obligations
- David Wright: $12MM (75% reportedly covered by insurance contract; unknown settlement presumptively reached)
- Juan Lagares: $500K buyout
There are many ways to tally all of this, and we don’t know exactly how the Mets are thinking about it internally, but that’s a big slate of preexisting commitments. In the past, the club has reportedly treated Wright’s ongoing payouts as part of its payroll, even though he’s finished playing. Whether that’s the case — and what exactly the insurance work-out looks like — isn’t known. It’s also not totally clear how the club views the deGrom and Familia deferrals or Lowrie’s final bonus payout.
If we tabulate only cash owed this winter and in the 2020 season, and presume the team will be paying $3MM of the Wright contract, that still puts the cash payroll at a minimum of $161.5MM (presuming league-minimum salaries for ten roster spots not otherwise accounted for by the players listed above). Perhaps the team has it a bit lower or a bit higher for its internal purposes, but that seems like a good number to start with based upon what we do know.
Trouble is, the Mets have never yet started a season with a payroll that reached $160MM. They were close to $150MM in 2009 and over that amount in each of the past three seasons. But it seems the Mets are right about at capacity, barring a northward movement in spending allocation for the MLB roster.
So, unless the Wilpon ownership group is preparing to commit more cash to the cause, the front office is going to have to get very creative. The Mets roster does have quite a bit of talent, but it’s also the same essential unit that fell short this year and could certainly stand to be supplemented in several areas. There’s no true center fielder. We all know how the bullpen looked in 2019. The rotation is missing one piece and still also needs depth. Mis-fitting first baseman Dominic Smith might bring back a useful and affordable player, though it isn’t as if he alone will nab a quality pre-arb starter. And the farm system has already been mined for the aforementioned trades, making it tough to commit further prospect capital.
Big-contract swaps? Trading away quality, younger players? A deeper dig into the farm? There are conceivable possibilities, though none jump off the page as being obviously beneficial. There’ll be high stakes and tough choices to make for the Mets front office this winter — unless, perhaps, ownership has a winter payroll bonus planned for Van Wagenen and company to play with.
Smith and GImenez for Boyd..
Not happening. Avila went through this at the deadline, he wants premium prospects for Boyd. Not that he is worth it mind you, but that is what he wants, and it is not likely he has changed his position on that just yet. At least you suggest a top 100 prospect in Giminez (#92 on MLB Pipeline), that is a start. Our best SS prospect is Parades and he just completed low A ball this year. Gimenez was in AA this year. But Smith adds little to what the Tigers already have, but at least he has 2 more seasons before being arbitration eligible and 5 years of total control left. Would probably take at least one more good prospect, someone just in or just out of the top 100.
Avila is crazy then. Boyd had a good April and May and that’s it. Otherwise his stats look a lot like previous production. Right now Boyd looks like an undesirable back end rotation piece.
The Tigers have a tumbleweed collection of 1B prospects. Smith would start in Detroit Day 1 2020. Paredes isn’t staying at SS as has been said and known forever in the Tigers system. Too big. 2b or 3b, depending if Candelario shakes off a terrible season. All these other cats are backups…Dixon, Niko, RRodriguez , Jacoby Jones, Reyes etc. Like to see them use Boyd for this or to go after Margot/Baez combo plate in SD
Paredes will likely land at 3B. He does hit the ball hard, and often. Better numbers at his age and stage of his career than several good MLB players.
Not that this has anything at all to do with the article. I’ve just noticed this forum often has trouble staying on focus, so why not.
Hell no!!! Boyd is garbage. His second half was atrocious. He would get slaughtered in NY.
You forgot NY is in the NL. He would put up much better numbers.
Important to point out too that the Mets are reluctant and unlikely to go over the initial luxury tax penalty threshold, which seems to matter just as much to them as the actual payroll output for any given year. So don’t look for any backloading of deals for when all the 2020 obligations are clear.
The Mets have never gotten near the luxury tax threshold. It will be $208 million next season and this article is talking about they have never been over the $150 million range.
That’s inaccurate. The competitive balance tax does not measure current payroll, simply put it measures contracts based on their AAV. So Jake counted about 21.78 mil against it this year while only being paid 9.5 million. Mets CBT per spotrac stands right now at about 193mil after the 2019 season, obv Frazier and likely Lagares come off the books but add in all the arb raises due. They are much closer than you state, and they indeed pay the tax in 1999, albeit under the old system.
I hope they look at the Tampa Bay Ray’s organization. 96 wins, 40 man roster total salary of $52 million.
Pretty sure all teams look at that and wonder how they can budget better
So what are you saying? I am curious as to how many championships that 52 Mil payroll has got them or even how many WS appearances?
Over the last 15+ years, the same amount as the Mets
Ouch!
bravo, sir!
That Cano portion is straight ugly.
Aging former superstar contracts. Cano, Pujols, Cabrera, Votto (maybe), etc. Mets were hoping to strike a balance with Cano with Edwin Diaz as a cheap elite closer which hasn’t been the case.
It is obviously far from ideal, but it isn’t completely hopeless.
Cano was worth 3 WAR in half a season just a year ago. Most of 2019 was lost to injury, but when he got a bit of health going, he didn’t look like toast.
I’ll give him one more season before moving him into the albatross category.
The simple answer is don’t expect any big money moves this off-season. They will chase some lower priced bullpen options, which they should. They also might move Smith or Davis to address other issues, which they shouldn’t. However, it’s not as bleak financially after 2020. Cespedes, Wright, Lowrie, Stroman are all coming off. Doesn’t mean the Mets go wild spending after 2020 but when has that ever happened?
That was a really great breakdown, thank you for that well written article. I think the difference between the Alderson Mets and Brodie’s Mets, is that Brodie will definitely do something. He will be creative. I can’t say it will work or be successful, but at least unlike boring Sandy … Brodie will make things interesting. Presuming we will keep our core (Degrom, Stroman, Noah, Alonso, McNeil, conforto) in place, I don’t think shaking up the pieces around them would be bad at all. But also not necessary. What if we get something from Cespedes? Or we can move him for another huge contract at a position of need. We also know relievers are like FG kickers. They’re great one year then trash the next then good again then bad again lol. We don’t know that Familia and Diaz won’t regain their form. Rosario night also keep developing. I’d like to see them sign some bounce back RP for 1-2 mil a piece. Maybe 2-3 of those types of guys. Maybe like a Brian Shaw or treinan. Someone of that ilk. It would take some of the heart out of the team to trade Dom. I’d rather keep him and move cespedes for a bad SP contract but someone who we can plug in at 4 or 5 and will eat innings. Someone like a Porcello or Cueto type but in their final year (if those two aren’t, too lazy to look it up right now).
But I think there’s reason to be optimistic. And it mostly comes from our solid core and a GM we know won’t settle for being stagnant.
P.S. Kenny Lofton should be in the Hall. Best lead off hitter in his generation. Great OBP, great CF Glove, Stole tons of bases, had decent pop and scored a ton of runs. Also, his teams were always in the playoffs.
BVW helped put the Mets in this hole with his moves last offseason. Cano, Familia, Lowrie, Diaz, Familia and Stroman.
The Mets will have to lower payroll about $30 million this offseason to get back to the $150-160 million range. Even if the Wilpon’s approve an increase to closer to $180 million, the Mets still have cut payroll, not add
Cano, Cespedes, and Lowrie are untradeable contracts. That is $65 million for aging and possibly absent players. deGrom is another $25.5 million. Familia, Wilson, and Ramos are another $25 million.
That is $115 million for 7 players, 3 of which that are aging and spent most or all of last season on the injured list. We don’t know how much of Wright’s $12 million they are on the hook for. Lets say insurance paid the max of 75%. That’s $3 million.
Then they have $48-50 million in arbitration cases for 8 guys, none of which they can afford to non-tender.
Then the Mets need to replace 5 FA off the season ending 25 man roster.
If all those players are replaced with guys that are not arb eligible yet plus the players already on the team that are not arb eligible yet, that is another $6-7 million for 10 guys.
The Mets are over $170 million and they have made no additions to the roster.
Where is the savings going to come from? How are they going to add players that can take them over the top? That was the whole point of article. .
Brodie was so creative, he got you Cano’s contract for your draft pick from last year.
Cueto or Porcello for Cespedes? Why would the Giants or Red Sox do those moves? And it seems to be a notion that forgets that the Red Sox were very disappointed when they had Cespedes the first time. The only way the Red Sox take on Cespedes is with Pavano. My Marlins have a better chance of getting Cespedes from you guys for Wei-Yin Chen, then you all have a chance at Cespedes for those guys.
The RS won’t since Porcello no longer has a contract with them.
I stopped reading your post at “get something for Cespedes”
You said “flipped the script” twice. At least.
Zero times is probably enough, Hemingway.
Hemingway was known for eschewing such frivolity and I’m not going for any literary prizes here. But thank you, I will edit that.
Little did Jeff Todd know the comment section was a bunch of writing critics with nothing better to do than pick at his phrasing.
Oh I knew that. It’s all good. I actually like having literary critics!
In literature, there is a style method called an echo that involves using a repeat for emphasis, so the literary critic needs to educate himself in literary devices before he critiques others.
A “literary device” called an echo?
MarlinsFanBase?
“You’re fantastic.”
-Ignatius Reilly
ECHO!
zing!
MLBTR is actually unusually well-written, including Jeff Todd’s normally sparkling contributions. As an editor (English is not my native language), I was just giving him a bit of a jocular ribbing for using the term twice in one article. You don’t bother doing that when the writing is sub-par. I don’t think he needs anybody defending him. He’s normally on point, and eschews surplusage with the best of us. Saludos, Jeff!
Surplusage?
Cool!
that’s what she said
There are a lot of trolls on this board. If someone writing “flipped the script” twice bothers you, you have issues.
Don’t worry! We see you! You count!
Okay but I think our “literary critic” struggles with simple math. I mean he said flip the script twice..at least? So does he have a hard time counting past 2 or did his ADD kick in and he couldn’t read the entire article?
Should’ve added the Bobby bonilla to other obligations
As well as Bret Saberhagen. He’s still getting $250,000 per year until 2029.
I was wondering why those were left off. Isn’t Bernard Gilkey getting something too?
and it all starts with a manager with winning experience.
An EXCELLENT article by you Jeff. As a die hard Mets fan THIS is the core of the Mets problems. People always say that the Wilpons don’t want to spend the money – I don’t think that is the case, I think it is that they cannot AFFORD to spend the money. And when they do pay money it’s always like a puzzle for them (for example they probably simply view the salary that Lowrie is making THIS upcoming year as the equivalent to what Frazier was getting paid last year, so essentially it is one replacing the other). In other words, the Mets might have IMPROVED their financial situation since the Madoff scandal, but they never really recovered. In order for them to compete they generally HAVE to have cheap, controllable assets.
As a result, the only way the Mets can improve the team if they aren’t going to spend the money is via trades. To me Diaz, Syndergaard, Dominic Smith are the players they would be most willing to trade that can bring them anything competent. I do wonder if they decided to tie Familia’s contract with Syndergaard if they might get a team to bite… but unlikely.
Seems to this outsider the real issue is whether or not Wilpon is willing to spend. Ended 2018 with $160M. In 2018 made $30M according to Forbes as well, and that was with drawing 200K less fans than in 2019. If payroll comes close to the 2018 number, they should make close to that $30M if not more. So how much of that is he willing to risk to bring a winner to Queens?
Jeff, with Cespedes, Ramos, and Lowrie coming off the books NEXT season will that give them significant wiggle room even with the arbitration numbers going up for Thor, Conforto, Lugo and Matz? That would mean going into 2021 they would only have guaranteed money committed to DeGrom, Cespedes and one year left of Familia, correct?
They also have money owed to Cano, so basically 3 guys, not counting arb guys.
Would an Angels/ Mets trade work that looked like Andrew Heaney and Brian Goodwin for Noah Syndergaard?
The Angels get a starting pitcher, which they so desperately need and the Mets receive a $5 million per year less pitcher and a centerfielder under team control and very affordable.
So 2 years of Andrew Heaney and a .320 OBP OF for Syndergaard. Yeah seems legit.
Please give your crack pipe a well deserved rest.
I would have guessed
alcohol!
Heaney and Goodwin? LOL!
Did you upvote your own post? This is a terrible trade for the Mets. I’m a little skeptical of Syndagaard but you arent getting him with a no.5 pitcher and a league average outfielder
Cespedes. Smh….
Get creative. Cespdes for Jeff Samardzija, a trade of brutal contracts. Get Sterling Marte from Pittsburgh. Find an American League home for Wilson Ramos. There are things that can be done
Samardzija has value since he actually plays. Cespedes has none. That one won;t work. No team is going to take Cano without the Mets eating more than half that contract. The Mets can not afford to give up the MLB ready players the Pirates will want for Marte if they are going to keep payroll down. They are between a rock and a hard place if the Wilpons do not open the purse strings. If they insist on a payroll around $160 million the Mets will be in a world of hurt.
Exactly. If the Mets approached the Marlins about a Cespedes for Chen trade, the Marlins would seriously have to think about rejecting that deal.
I’m curious to know the trade suggestion to get Marte from the Pirates. After all, the Pirates are in the business of trying to make themselves better – not making the Mets better.
You’re right. Making other teams better by sending them MVPs for pennies on the dollar isn’t the Pirates job. That’s what the Marlins are for.
Lol i watched game 5 of alds
Cole vs glanslow with meadows leading off
Lol, that’s cute. I saw Stanton and Yelich shining their MVP trophies in the playoffs. Meanwhile, Meadows/Glasnow were prospect over pays that every team is guilty of (Paddack for Rodney sound familiar?) and while they didn’t get enough for Cole, he wasn’t traded at peak value either. Stanton was traded as reigning MVP, Yelich was about to be (possibly twice in a row had he not gotten hurt).
I would offer Nimmo, Dom Smith, Robert Gsellman and Andres Gimenez
For Marte and a bullpen prospect
They’d still have to find a place that Cespedes is willing to trade his NTC, along with a place that wants his AAV. I can’t really think of any tbh.
What about the Bonilla obligation. That’s not done yet, is it?
Great article. I’ve been saying this same thing for the past 5 months. It’s put up or shut up time for the Wilpons. They need to go all in or destroy it and rebuild like the Rays or A’s.
The Wilpons like teetering in the middle of the pack, never being bad enough to load up on the top picks, and never good enough to win it all. It allows them to pocket money, when they are average enough to make homers think that they have a real chance to compete, thus buying the tickets for the Kool-Aid that is served up every year.
If there was a fable written about the Wilpons and their fans, it would be about the owners that promise a champagne party every year, but actually serve urine colored Kool-Aid to fool everyone.
I think you meant Kool-Aid-colored urine lol
With payroll already near it’s ceiling, and still paying Mickey Calloway’s contract, will the Mets actually pay top dollar for a manager?
Mickey is owed what $850k? That is nothing
The Mets should pack up and move to Vegas instead of playing second fiddle to the Yankees year after year.
Smart FOs will exploit this inneffcient organization. Look for Giants, LAD, Houston. MN, and/or TB to take advantage of BVW this winter.
BVW probably wears a helmet to play checkers.
Brodie has no business running a major league baseball team, IMO.
Meaning: you’re 1000% right. Other orgs will continue to take advantage of this guy and I hope they do!
There’s a lot to be said about that strategy. The best teams to deal with are the teams most desperate to win. As a RS fan, I’d like to deal with SD, NYM, and Cincy.
As much as BVW gets hammered for trading Kelenic, at least he got back someone who should’ve been good. Cincy trade two pretty decent prospects for Kemp & Puig. At best, that’s 4 WAR for $22-23M, for one year, for two decent+ prospects, for a team that couldn’t make the playoffs.
If im BVW…here is how is navigate the off-season..
1. Qualify Wheeler…accepts…1 more year..rejects..1st rd. Supplemental pick
2. If he rejects..offer 4yr/$70mil
Take it or leave it
3.Upgrade backup catcher (Suzuki..Rivera..Castillo)
4.Bullpen (most important) Diaz can bounce back…Familia…not too sure..Lugo is a stud and Wilson was solid. Maybe trade for Giles…but this bullpen needs a makeover
5. Blockbuster trade…
A) Mookie Betts for Syndergaard,Nimmo,Szapucki and Vientos
Trevor Story for Rosario,Matz,Gimenez and Peterson
Obv these are parameters for a deal…i am in no way saying these are ones that would be accepted..but they are considerable
Hopefully BVW has a few tricks up his sleeve..he has shown a willingness to be bold. If Cano can provide. 270 20 75 is be thrilled..Diaz will bounce back..stuff is too nasty not to.
If wheeler comes back…that rotation is best in league 1-5
deGrom..Syndergaard..Stroman..Wheeler..Matz
Def legit
Dematteo
If you make either or both trades you suggest, you would have moved two of the five starters that you are calling the best in the league. ( understand they are only parameters )
You will be adding to a payroll that is near the limit now ( Met limit )
You will have almost totally decimated their minor league talent pool.
If If If If Cespedes is able to come back to anything near his offensive numbers, the everyday lineup would be in great shape leaving the bull pen as the only spot to upgrade. The Rays use their analytics to find undervalued arms making next to nothing.
I think Brodie is going all in on analytics. This would explain why so many young guys are being interviewed.The analytic department is able to spot players who have good arms but have not been appreciated with their present team. JD Davis is an example of that last year as a position player.
Always a mistake to hirer an agent to be your GM. Hasn’t worked out yet. I have more experience putting (fantasy) teams together than an agent who tries to get the most amount of money for their client.
Agree he played the agent instead of GM at the deadline Thor should have been traded.
Trade trade trade then rebuild your own team. Stroman, Degrom and Thor will bring in a haul. Cano still has a market as does Cepedes.
Cano and Cespedes still have a market? No one is taking on those contracts with their injury histories.
Very thin market. Chris Davis, Pujols and Miggy.
Good article. Any chance the Mets could get JBJ (and possibly a bullpen piece, if they have one) for Matz, Smith and Nimmo? All three are talented but two don’t fit Mets lineup and Matz is inconsistent. I can’t see the Mets dealing for Betts because he’ll want a Harper level contract and Nimmo would have to be replaced with Conforto in that deal.