Dodgers right-hander Kenley Jansen passed on the opportunity to opt out of the final two years and $38MM on his five-year, $80MM contract, as was first reported a few days back by MLB Network’s Jon Heyman (via Twitter).
It’s not a surprising decision in the least. Now 32 years old, Jansen has seen his velocity and his results decline in each of the past two seasons, and he assuredly would have been in line to receive less than $38MM on the open market.
Jansen’s strikeout and walk rates remain excellent (11.4 K/9, 2.3 BB/9), but he’s become more hittable and more homer-prone over the past 15 months in particular. Jansen carried a 2.28 ERA and a 57-to-13 K/BB ratio through 51 1/3 innings into the month of August in 2018. From that point forth, however, he surrendered 11 earned runs on the strength of seven homers in his final 20 1/3 innings. He was sharp through the NLDS and NLCS last season before being tagged with a pair of blown saves in the team’s World Series loss to Boston.
The 2019 season was Jansen’s worst as a Major Leaguer. In 63 regular-season innings, he was tagged for a 3.71 ERA with nine homers surrendered. Dating back to last August, Jansen’s overall regular-season numbers are wholly unremarkable; he’s tallied 83 1/3 innings with an even 4.00 ERA. And despite his robust strikeout totals in that time, he’s yielded an average of 1.73 homers per nine innings pitched.
Perhaps a correction of this year’s explosive ball will prove beneficial, but it’s also worth noting that Jansen’s homer troubles were greater in 2018 than in 2019. At this point, with his once-94.3 mph cutter checking in at an average of 92.1 mph, it’s equally possible that Jansen simply won’t return to the dominant force he once was. His K/BB rates still give him a chance to be a quality late-inning arm, but he’ll need to curtail the home runs to some extent — even if he can’t return to his 2016-17 form, when he yielded just nine home runs over a span of 137 innings. He’ll earn $19MM in each of the next two seasons, but in spite of that salary, the Dodgers may be forced to push him into a lower-leverage role and alter the manner in which they handle their highest-leverage situations moving forward.
Too bad. Health, arrogance, and wear have made him mortal.
arrogance?
Yeah he is so arrogant pitching while needing heart surgery or doing whatever he is asked out of the pen. I bet you wish he had a shot in game 5 before things got out of hand.
What arrogance, David?
We went to a dodger game a few years back when the gates opened. Got Ethier and kershaw and ellis to sign. Kenley was walking and we asked if he could sign a ball and he said no. We told him we flew from Baltimore and really wanted to see him play and get a ball signed and he told us that wasnt his problem. And even though im old enough to understand he was right, it left an impression.
This is a classic example of an overpaid aging player weighing down a teams payroll and reducing the odds for a team to compete. The current luxury tax payroll ceiling is reducing competition. It would be better to either have no ceiling or have an equal cap for everyone. Losing draft picks is a very bad choice for a team to lose under the current structure. But it is what it is.
Yeah I don’t think the dodgers are the best example to use to make that point
8 blown saves last yr?
Let’s get back to the “arrogance” suggestion. What arrogance, David?
Shaking off his catchers, not taking corrective feedback. Failure to take responsibility when he blows a save.
The only thing getting in the way is the owners refusing to pay luxury tax when they can easily afford it. Not Jansen’s contract.
Finally catching up with this story five days after the fact? Sigh. Anyhow, in addition to giving up more homers, Jansen is also walking more while striking out fewer. Mixing in more sliders seems to help but the fact of the matter is, he no longer has the overwhelming cutter he used to be able to throw for a strike in any count. The issue here isn’t how much they are committed to paying him. The Dodgers are loaded with cash, they only have to choose to spend it. The issue is how they will address closing for the next two years knowing that Jansen is not the pitcher he used to be and probably won’t be ever again.
His strikeouts and walks are still excellent! Guys are just hitting him now and the long are killing him!
The SO/BB ratio is still good but a third to half of what it was in his prime. He’s being hit now because he’s hittable now. The cutter isn’t as hard as it was and it doesn’t cut as much as it used to do. At one time he could throw over 90% cutters and get away with it because it didn’t matter if the hitter knew it was coming, he still couldn’t hit it. Not anymore.
The Dodgers structured the contract poorly. They should have front loaded it. There’s no incentive for him to opt out and they probably can’t move it without sweeteners.
Everybody involved with structuring contracts understand the concept of present value. They are are structured the way they are for reasons both parties fully comprehend before they are signed. For Jansen to have any incentive to opt out the value on the last two years would have to be maybe half of the AAV, which we have to know, was never going to happen. They probably aren’t going to trade him, either.
Agreed. Many times deferred contacts are due to previous deferments that are still on the books. A lot of moving pieces when it comes to finance that we the people are not necessarily privy to. Kinda like our own financial situations, I suppose.
True and while Jansen’s contract is backloaded it isn’t as much as we’ve seen in other cases.
Of course not
I think his confidence is down and also his spin rate. His #1 pitch, the cutter, is hardly moving as much as it used too. That’s why he’s getting shelled. If Jansen can work on these two things LA has the best closet again.
I gave up on Jansen long ago, never bought into the hype. Year in, year out giving up homeruns and blowing saves, having to watch the team bail him out. I was crossing my fingers Chapman would opt out and the Dodgers could snag him up, but looks like another year of an unreliable closer. Chapman has his flaws but not anywhere near Jansen. I hope Jansen gets booed every game for not opting out of his contract and giving the team a chance to rebuild the bullpen. Selfish!!!
Hype?
Selfish?
Wow – go back and look at what this guy has done for the club.
As the saying goes: What have you done for me lately? The guy has been garbage and it’s time to cut him loose. You can reminisce all you like for what he has done for the team, but frankly speaking, memories won’t help win the team a ring; that’s the goal every year. Need to live in the now/future if you want that ring and cut out all weak ends.
Kenley to middle relief and Dustin May to closing role. Urias and gonsolin to be promoted to starting roles. Maeda and stripling to key bullpen roles.
Dodgers need to move along to their next closer. Not sure he’s currently on their roster. Jansen is history, never to be trusted in a big spot again…