As reflected in MLBTR’s handy list of key offseason dates, November 20th is the deadline for teams to protect otherwise-eligible prospects from this year’s Rule 5 draft. Teams must add such players to their 40-man rosters by 8pm ET tomorrow or risk losing them to competitors when selections are made on December 12th.
Eligibility is determined by reference to the age and timing of entry to the professional ranks. A player that signed at 18 years of age or younger and has five seasons of pro ball is Rule 5 eligible if he is not added to the 40-man roster in advance of the deadline. Players that signed at 19 or older and have four seasons of professional experience are also eligible to be selected if they’re not added to the 40-man roster tomorrow. (In other words, college draftees out of the 2016 class, high school draftees out of the 2015 class and most international amateurs signed in the 2015-16 international period are eligible this year if not protected.)
Teams that make selections in the draft will gain conditional control over the chosen players. To be kept permanently, a player must stay on the MLB roster for an entire season, with at least ninety days spent on the active roster. It’s plausible to imagine that the addition of a 26th active roster spot this year will facilitate the utilization of the Rule 5 process.
Full coverage of the Rule 5 landscape will necessarily await tomorrow’s decisions. The need to make tough calls will prompt some action around the game, though it remains to be seen whether that’ll be the usual run of moves on the margins or if a blockbuster or two could be swung. Baseball America’s J.J. Cooper is as usual champing at the bit, so he has released a prediction of some interesting players that are relatively likely to be left unprotected.
As you might imagine, it’s easier to account for protection of prospects for teams with extra 40-man roster space. But it’s not as simple as having an opening. You also must be able to maintain a player in that spot throughout the winter and into the season. Adding a player that wouldn’t have been selected (or wouldn’t have lasted on an active roster) therefore carries its own risk: if you end up needing the roster space, you might have to expose such a player to outright waivers in the middle of the season. It’s worth noting, too, that some teams have already added players that they wish to protect.
There are tons of factors that go into these decisions, but roster space does still matter. Here are the number of open 40-man spots for each MLB team, as things stand this morning (per MLB.com’s roster pages):
10: Nationals
8: Cubs, Twins
7: Braves, Brewers, Tigers, White Sox
6: Astros, Red Sox
5: Mariners, Diamondbacks, Marlins, Orioles, Phillies, Reds
4: Rangers, Rockies, Yankees
3: Dodgers, Mets, Rays
2: Angels, Cardinals, Indians
1: Pirates
0: Athletics, Blue Jays, Padres, Giants, Royals
Elements of this post are adapted in part from a prior post by MLBTR’s Steve Adams.
Wow didn’t realize the Nats have that many open spots
Two obvious ones are their big free agent tickets. Sox have so many spots too because Moreland, Porcello and Pearce are free agents.
Holt too.
Yeesh. I knew free agency was going to hit the Nats like a train this offseason but 10 open spots?
Would be cool to see a run down of some of the players to look out for during the rule 5 draft after the deadline tomorrow.
Fangraphs will likely have a run down like that soon
Tigers should outright Troy Stokes Jr. (a minor league free agent signing) and Sergio Alcantara off the 40-man to create 2 more spots. Prospects are starting to come around, and it’s better to hang on to their potential rather than keep aging minor-leaguers who look like they’ll never make it.
WTH? Why is Sergio Alcantara on a 40-man roster? What a waste of a spot.
Matt Hall, Alcantara, Stokes and even Demeritte could be cut loose. No one would bother signing them. They should draft at least 2 guys from the rule 5. An outfielder and a pitcher.
I hope Toronto finds a spot for Hatch, Snead, and Baker but i’d bet Hatch is the only one who gets one.
drop Maile, do they need a 3rd catcher? Will someone actually claim Maile? drop Urena, Save Espinal, save Hatch. Drop whichever of the 6 bad OF the Jays want least (Davis, Mckinney, Alford, Fisher, Teoscar, ect.) There are a few options but I guess we find out tomorrow which direction Shatkins wants to go..
Non tender Shoemaker, drop Valera, drop Merryweather, try and deal Maile to any team needing a backup catcher.
Haha, you can keep Hatch. One of the Cubs many C- prospects. Major league team is no longer good either. I say they trade Rizzo, Bryant, and Lester to Yankees for Miguel Andujar and prospects and get demoted to AAA. They should call up AAA team like Memphis or New Orleans to majors and demote Cubs to AAA. Chicago will do just fine with one major league team. Also, Eloy says hi.
You’re trying too hard.
@ Yeetus that would be the most lopsided baseball trade in history. Don’t quit your day job!
Not even the most lopsided Cubs-Yankees trades of the past 5 years. Gleyber plus a few bums for half a year of Chapman. Gleyber is a future HOF
LOL, future hall of famer.… that’s funny.
Cubs Got a Ring out of that trade lol
Cubs would have still won the WS without that trade. In fact, Chapman came THIS close to blowing the WS for them but Ben Zobrist bailed him out.
Ridiculous claim. They DON’T win the WS with Rondon closing.
Sure they do. The only World Series game they won in which Chapman helped at all was game 5. And then he almost blew game 7 before Ben Zobrist bailed him out.
No way in hell the Cubs even make the World Series without Chapman. Cubs bullpen was not in a good shape, hence the overuse on Chapman
How do you figure boy? The Cubs STOMPED on the Giants and Dodgers in the playoffs that year.
I like !!!
“this is where the fun begins”
If by fun, you mean stupid, then yes.
I really expect to see more players selected this year with the 26 man roster. This should make it easier for teams to keep the players, and I even think a couple of teams could try to keep a couple of players. Not sure if any team has ever kept two players all season, though I think I remember teams selecting multiple players a few times.
I can see the Padres being active over the next 24 hours. Strong farm and no open spots.
Already protected everyone important for this year. Next year is going to be interesting for them however.
That’s what I get for not paying close attention. That pitching pipeline is incredible.
I love their Spring Training setup and generally catch them each year. I’m no scout, obviously, but I’ve seen several guys who really impressed me.
Are Estruey Ruiz and Buddy Reed on the 40 man? MLB.com says they need to be protected, and Padres.com says they aren’t on the 40 man.
If they need to be and the teams wants to protect them, it will be tomorrow that that happens. Pay attention.
I was more pointing out that not everyone important is protected, as the comment I replied to stated. These are two top 30 prospect in one of the best farms in the majors.
I wouldn’t worry too much about either one. Ruiz is 20, put up poor numbers at High-A, and doesn’t have a position. Reed has one good half in four years. If exposed, I doubt either would be taken. And even if taken, the chances of either of them sticking is remote.
Hey Spack good to see your name miss the ol Padre fan board hope all the guys are well and you too.
Probably 3 guys to be protected still. Dauris Valdez, Jorge Ona, and Esteury Ruiz. I doubt Buddy Reed, Michael Gettys or Eguy Rosario are added to 40 man, but they are among the guys the Padres have that are Rule 5 eligible.
Yeah, Ona and Valdez, maybe. Ruiz very, very doubtful.
The full list is available on Fangraphs under depth charts. fangraphs.com/roster-resource/depth-charts/padres
I like Jason Vosler… he could be a backup 3B/1B with some lefty power.
More Future Hall of Famers will be left unprotected, waived or released in the next few weeks than Rob Refsnyder and Blake Swihart can count.
Who cares? Have there been more than a handful of Rule 5 draftees that became impact players? I understand baseball fans are hungry for offseason activity, but the Rule 5 draft is nothing but an overrated, fruitless letdown.
I think rule 5 is going to be used more. Some teams are way deeper than those that are tanking. The extra roster spot makes it fairly easy to stash a player especially on a bad team.
Still has 40 man implications that can be felt throughout the year and beyond for guys who are protected and guys who lose their spots. Being able to pick up a guy like Jeff McNeil is almost franchise altering as well if you get that opportunity.
Who cares?
How exactly is baseball itself any more important than the rule 5 draft?
Neither matters more than a comic book if you want to get technical.
What date does the 26th man come in for teams?
I believe it’s when they break camp. right now they have the 40 man.
Thanks, yeah that makes sense
Question… if a player is taken in the draft and months later returned… does he go back through the waiver wire or does he go directly to the old team?
If he just goes back… I wonder if teams would work with each other to help protect players… I mean the Yankees leave Florial un protected. Tigers select him. Months later, Tigers release him back to Yankees. Yankees make a minor trade favoring the Tigers.
I know teams would never do that… wink wink… like they would never steal signs and bang on trash cans….
they go through the waiver wire but a team that claims them has to keep them on the roster so it is unlikely they would get claimed.
Furthermore, Rule Fivers can be traded but must stay on the new team all year. Just FYI
If the Indians need to further trim their 40-man roster, Hentges, Maton, and Velasquez seem like the most likely candidates to go.
McKenzie, Moss, and Daniel Johnson are all probably locks to be added. Ka’ai Tom has a good case too. I like Luis Oviedo and Oscar Gonzalez, but they both seem way too raw to justify giving a 40-man spot to at this point.
Other than that, you’re looking at Juan Hillman (the pick they made right after McKenzie and might be starting to figure things out after a few years of struggling), and then fringe but intriguing pieces like Skylar Arias. I’m sure there’s a guy or two that I’m forgetting, but otherwise it seems pretty straightforward.
Disagree on those three being trimmed,they have options left.
Tribe needs to protect McKenzie,Moss,Johnson,Tom and maybe Oscar Gonzalez.
.Fermin and Oviedo are a bit young to be taken so they’re probably exposed.
Gavin Collins is another iffy maybe.
With 2 spots open the guys most likely trimmed in order are Arroyo,Wood(both out of options),Hoyt,Maton ,maybe JC Mejia coming off a really disappointing season.
Them having options doesn’t matter here; Wood pitched pretty well for them and seems like he’ll be in their opening day bullpen, Arroyo is still young with prospect pedigree and will probably be given a chance to win the second base job, and Hoyt was terrific down the stretch. I like having flexibility, but that’s why you build depth.
Meanwhile, Hentges had a terrible year; he was healthy unlike Mejia but was way too hittable and struggled big time with control in AA. Tall lefties don’t grow on trees, so maybe he bounces back or becomes a bullpen guy but it’s tough to underestimate how much he struggled last year. Maton is just a guy, and Velasquez really isn’t anything special either. I think he’s probably a utility man at best.
Fermin and Oviedo are both too raw to be protected now, and I like Oscar Gonzalez but he can’t draw a walk to save his life and he struggled immensely in AA. I like his future, but I don’t see a team carrying him on their roster next year.
Collins is a very iffy maybe, but only if they get rid of Plawecki or (more likely) Haase; he’s been solid, but I’m not really sure what he’ll amount to.
You can’t have depth without flexibility.What good does it do the Indians to keep Arroyo and Wood,both of whom they got for nearly nothing,when if they don’t make the big club they are gone or if they do make the big club and need to be sent down they are also gone?
Tribe will take the chance they get through waivers now when every team has a bit of a numbers crunch and re-sign them as minor league free agents,since they both have good opportunities to make the team here ,if not, no big loss either way.
Why would you not also include how many spots are needed by each team? oh would it mean spending some time on your article? Jeff, Jeff that is really lacklustre lazy reporting!
They listed every team. But it will be different by tomorrow’s deadline
How could Jeff possibly know how many spots each team needs? He isn’t the GM of any of the teams and while some players are locks to be protected there are always fringe players that could go either way. Plus every organization could feel differently about a lower ranked prospect and want to protect them over someone else.
Exactly. A rundown on every team’s possible rule v moves would be exhausting to both write and read.
MLBTR consistently puts out great, timely content….for free. It shouldn’t be hard to appreciate that.
I’m making my prediction: the best Rule 5 draft player will be Vince Fernandez. Dude can flat out rake.
The Tigers have 8 players that they should protect. Let everyone else go. They’ll be back if selected.
The Rule 5 Draft: Baseball’s version of a garage sale with a generous return policy.
More teams should take a shot on these players. They get to bring them to ST and get five weeks or thereabouts to see first hand if the guy is worth keeping around.
The Phillies have had some luck with Rule 5 picks over the years. Dave Hollins, Shane Victorino and Odubel Herrera come to mind.
Yeah, it’s a crapshoot. But the cost is ridiculously low, so why not take the chance? Who knows? You just might find a diamond in the rough.
The reason is you have to then keep the player you choose on the 25 man roster for the season or you have to give him back anyway.
Spring training does not mean anything. Most teams cannot afford to carry a young player who is not ready on the 25 man or now 26 man roster