The Twins will issue a qualifying offer to righty Jake Odorizzi, Jim Duquette of MLB Network Radio on Sirius XM reports (Twitter link). This year’s qualifying offer value is $17.8MM.
While not unexpected, this move sets the stage for an interesting decision for Odorizzi. He’ll have ten days to weigh his options, during which time he can negotiate with the Twins. Odorizzi and his reps at Excel can also chat with other organizations that have interest, helping them to gauge the marketplace, though any deal with another organization would need to await final resolution of the QO.
The Minnesota organization would obviously be glad to see Odorizzi return for a one-year commitment, even at that hefty price point. After all, they could lose not only Odorizzi but also Michael Pineda, Kyle Gibson and Martin Perez to free agency, leaving them with a huge offseason undertaking on the starting staff. If he hits the open market instead of accepting, the Twins will stand to recoup draft compensation if Odorizzi signs elsewhere. They’d receive a choice after the second round — unless Odorizzi secures more than $50MM in guaranteed money, in which case it’d be after the first round. Meanwhile, signing teams will modify their offers (or withhold them altogether) to account for the loss of their own draft capital.
Odorizzi, who’ll turn 30 next March, quietly built himself a strong case as a qualifying offer recipient. The right-hander has long been a durable and generally useful rotation cog, but some mechanical adjustments led to increased velocity in 2019, and his focus on working at the top of the zone helped to up his strikeout levels. When all was said and done, Odorizzi had compiled 159 innings of 3.51 ERA ball with an even better 3.36 FIP. The righty averaged a career-best 10.1 K/9 against 3.0 BB/9, and his 0.9 HR/9 mark was particularly impressive for a fly-ball pitcher, considering the 2019 juiced ball.
The top of this year’s pitching market features bona fide aces Gerrit Cole and Stephen Strasburg, while Zack Wheeler and Madison Bumgarner are both in the next tier of arms. There’s an argument for Odorizzi to at least approach that second tier, but at the very least, he’s among the more appealing arms in the market’s third tier.
Take it then work out a deal say 2/25
I don’t think Odorizzi will accept the 2/25, since it’s only hair under $8mm more than the QO.
3yrs for 45mil
Why would he settle on 12.5 when he can get 17.8 and then go for bigger money?
if I’m reading it correctly, he saying that Odorizzi should take the 17.8 million for this year, and then the two years 25 million after that.
which also is a smart decision by the way if he does do this, because he probably wouldn’t get that if hewere to decline the offer based on the draft pick compensation rules.
why is everyone assuming only a 2 or 3 year deal? the guy will only be 30 in april of next year and if u look at the past 4 or 5 seasons it’s pretty easy to tell that 2018 and NOT 2019 is the outlier. 4 years $55-60M will likely be his market if he declines the QO
2019 is not the outlier? Are we looking at the same data? 2018 is pretty much who has been his entire career. I’m looking more at FIP than ERA, but same guy.
i used ERA+ but u can use whatever metric you’d like. if u wanna use FIP than 2017 and 2018 look like outliers and 2019 is just slightly better than the previous years
i used ERA+ but u can use whatever metric you’d like. if u wanna use FIP than 2017 and 2018 look like outliers and 2019 is just slightly better
KeySox think about it. If he did what you say he is given the second year for $8m. Why would he do that. He would better off taking it and going on the market next year
he’s got to take it
Take it, definitely not getting that on the open market.
I think he would make more on the market.
He’ll make a lot more on the open market. Not as much on average, but they’ll be plenty of teams that will give him $36M/3.
The next Mike Pelfrey type contract. The Cubs will sign him and put a nail in the coffin on contention.
He’ll make more on the open market. Quite a bit of contending and fringe playoff teams will be making moves
This is this years Keuchel. I think he should take the offer. His year was an outlier and he pitched in the AL Central.
If he’s good, he can always capitalize next year.
Either way, tough call for him.
He’s easily worth a three-year $45m offer. I’d even be ok with a four-year $60m deal. But given the recent trend of free agency and the names ahead of him on the market I’d be shocked if he got more than three years $40m. If I had to guess I’d say he gets a two year deal for $30m
Dumb move for the Twins. He’s almost sure to accept since he wouldn’t get anywhere near $18M per year as a FA. Based on his career average of just over 5 innings per start, would you really give someone $100,000 per inning??
Had to do it given the rotation situation and I also like it. If he accepts, great. I’d also be fine with a 3/45 or 4/60 re-sign with him..preferably the former. He was better than I expected him to be after the trade.
Twins priorities have changed since they cut Martin Perez loose.
Priority 1 is still resigning Jake Odorizzi, whether for the 1 year Qualifying Offer, of a three year deal.
The number 2 Priority now becomes signing EITHER Gerrit Cole or Hyun-Jin Ryu to anchor the Rotation.
The Number 3 Priority is to sign Madison Baumgartner to fill the 2 or 3 spot in the rotation.
The Number 4 Priority is to sign Zach Wheeler to fill the 4th Rotation spot in the Twins rotation.
The Number 5 Priority is to sign Brett Anderson or Wade Smiley to fill the 5th spot in the rotation in case number 1. 2. 3 and or 4 Priorities fall apart.
The Twins already have Jose Berrios to fill the 3rd or 4th spot in the rotation.
If all else fail, try to pick up Michael Pineda, after he serves his 39 game suspension, to fill in in case the Twins Front Office FAILS to sign a rotation, or someone gets hurt. The Bullpen is always another option for Michael Pineda, if he is signed cheap enough.
It seems very far fetched that the Twins land even half of these pitchers, but I like your way oft thinking! We can dream, can’t we?
This is going to be a tough decision for odorizzi! Cash in on a very nice 2018-19 season on a med-long term deal or take the high $ QO. He may not get more money for next season testing the market but he should get more years. I’d take the QO – pitch my tail off and do this again next year! Almost $18 mill is a good/great 1-year contract for Odorizzi. I think the open market would come in around 3/45 at most.
QO? not worth the money. 2019 1st 3 months were a fluke. 2nd 3 months same old average arm. Less innings in the last 3 months yet hits, walks, ERA, WHIP were all up.
5 and 4 in the second half and ERA was almost double and WHIP was up .3,
Now that the Twins have made the Qualifying Offer to Jake Odorizzi, and decided not to exercise the Martin Perez, and looking at who received Qualifying Offers from other teams, the Twins might take a new look at the Free Agent starting pitchers available.
Hopefully, Jake will either accept the qualifying offer or sign a three year contract with the Twins.
Filling out the rotation, the Twins should look at, in order of priority: Hyun-Jin Ryu, 33, LHP, ’19 ERA 2.32, Career ERA 2.98, ’19 Salary $17.9 M; Brett Anderson, 32, LHP, ’19 ERA 3.89, Career ERA 4.05, ’19 salary $1.5 M; and Wade Miley, 33, LHP; ’19 ERA 3.98, Career ERA 4.27 ERA, and ’19 Salary $4.5 .
Yes, it would be nice if the Twins took a shot at one of the other starters receiving Qualifying offers, Gerritt Cole; Stephen Strasburg; Madison Baumgartner; and Zach Wheeler; but there is NOTHING in the history of the Twins Front Office that would indicate the Twins would commit enough money or length of contract to land any of the other Qualifying Offer pitchers.
In the event that the Twins do land Ryu, with his injury history, it would be smart of try to bring back Michael Pineda, 30, RHP, ’19 ERA 4.01, Career ERA 4.04, ’19 Salary $8 million on a minor league contract with an opt out 30 days after the end of his suspension, as an insurance policy in case of injury or lack of performance.