The Rangers have been bumped from the bidding on righty Zack Wheeler, per Evan Grant of the Dallas Morning News. The market is beginning to move quickly for the former Mets hurler.
With the Texas organization out of the hunt, there’s greater clarity in the likely outcomes. Right now, the Phillies, Reds, and White Sox are by all accounts pushing hard to land Wheeler. The status of other interested clubs — the Blue Jays, Angels, and Twins — is still up in the air.
What’s next for the Rangers isn’t known. Grant surveys the remaining options but says it’s not yet clear whether the team has interest in the next level of rotation options. Running down the line on our ranking of the top 50 free agents, lefties Madison Bumgarner and Hyun-Jin Ryu are the top remaining alternatives. Michael Pineda remains an interesting potential target. It’s also possible the Rangers could go for a sturdy veteran such as Cole Hamels or Dallas Keuchel. And there are quite a few alternatives yet further down the market spectrum.
The pretenders who thought they could steal 1/2 upside for #3 money are falling by the wayside. Back to your Mileys and Cashners, Rangers. And your staff ERA of 5+. Enjoy the new stadium.
The guy is pretty injury prone. #1 or #2 money for his is insanely risky. I’m glad they are out on him.
He’s made 64 starts the past two years.
uh, actually 60 – 31 this year, 29 last. they provider hyperlinks to the BBR player pages, all you had to do was one more click and some simple addition
and 5/$125 for a guy with a career ERA+ of 100 is insane
He’s been a top 25 pitcher in baseball over the last two season by just about any metric you want to pick, xFIP, ERA, SIERA, WAR, K%, hard hit %.
As a Mets fan I’ll tell you that you should be glad. No way he lives up to whatever contract someone is foolish enough to give him.
Thank you! Exactly!
Lol. Look at Wheeler’s body of work, including last year, and tell me how he’s a 1/2. Not worth a budget busting contract.
I mean you’re joking right? You can think what you want of Wheeler long term but to say “Look at Wheeler’s body of work, including last year, and tell me how he’s a 1/2” is just ridiculous. Did you actually look at his body of work before you made that comment? Over the last two seasons Wheeler ranks 16th in ERA, 22nd in xFIP, 22nd in SIERA, 23rd in K% and 3rd in hard hit% and if you like WAR (which I think is useless for pitchers) he ranks 9th. that ‘s literally the very definition of a high #2 low #1. Again, did you look at a single stat before you made that comment?
Hes got a glass body that hasnt held up.
It’s sour grapes. Or ignorance. He’s a top prospect who has been excellent the last two years. He’s a number 1 pitcher on most staffs.
Any team would love to have him.
I guess the same thing is true for Strasberg, he’s got a glass body. The entire A’s staff has a glass body, so you don’t have to worry about them.
A former top prospect. Never had a full season healthy, and he’s approaching 30. Not sure if I’m willing to allocate 20 percent of my payroll for that risk. I’d rather have Dallas on a shoter term deal, or Madbum for less money.
If your payroll is capped at 100 million, then you don’t have enough for him. The Rangers are not a small market team and are moving into a new park. Their payroll should be much much higher.
His ERA+ says he’s a league average pitcher.
So one state negates literally every other stat?
Since a pitchers main role is to prevent runs, I would argue that ERA+ is one of, if not the most, important stat
That’s literally what xFIP and SIERA are, stats that indicate what a pitchers ERA would be if all things were equal. Also if you’re going down that route then why not just use ERA? Over the last two years he ranks 16th in ERA right ahead of MadBum and….Strasburg who is 15th.
ERA+ is not the best stat when looking at the future. It’s a good stat when looking at the past.
Pjm are we talking about the same pitcher? You act like Wheeler is worth the amount being talked about. His pricetag is based on potential alone. While he carries just as much potential to get hurt or continue to underperform. Hype.
Rangers had 2 guys finish in the top 10 for the Cy Young. Rangers pitching isn’t nearly as bad as you make it out to be and signing Wheeler will prove to be a mistake for whatever club is unfortunate enough to give him 5 years and 100+million.
Pretenders? After all the cash the Rangers have paid out over the years. Stay on your meds, junior.
Smart move by Rangers.
White Sox will likely offer something like $25M for one year, and then claim they were the high bidder, and were in it, till the end.
Show me on the doll where the White Sox touched you.
lol!
It must be crushing to you that the cubs aren’t doing anything interesting and the Sox have been active as they’re on the rise.
Negative baggage is an unpleasant thing to carry around, dude.
Well they already have Gibson and Minor, in an AL West with the Angels and Mariners, that would be good enough for 3rd place.
I still have no faith in the Angels.
Don’t forget about Lynn who was a beast last year
Congratulations to the Rangers for not making a $100 million mistake.
Take a page from Astros book and bang on a trash can.
I have no idea what this is even supposed to mean but I approve of this comment.
Hey that would improve our batting not pitching…
Saving it for Rendon or Donaldson
Lets hope!
BTW love the username
I am GLAD we didn’t keep up the bidding, if it was at like 4 for 68 then fine, but GOD NO for 5 for 100. And if the team that gets him turns him into gerrit cole than fine, but I will not do that… I think rangers get ryu to fill out the rotation, and after that they go get a 3b and they are a WC.
I mean based on the market so far and projections at the start of the off season you’re probably looking at paying Ryu 3/60-70. I haven’t seen a contract yet except maybe Smith’s that hasn’t smashed expectations. I mean the Rangers gave Gibson 3/30.
Still, if we pay 60-70 for ryu, he has already shown he is a great pitcher, he’s just injury prone and old. But if we “overspend” on him we could trade for a 3b… Maybe reunite with hanser alberto, or get andurjar. Just anything is better.
MLB TR projected Grandal at 4/$68 and Kiley McDaniel of Fangraphs 4/$70. He signed for 4/$73.
MLB TR projected Kyle Gibson at 2/$18m and Kiley McDaniel 3/$45m. Gibson signed for 3/$30m
MLB TR projected d’Arnaud at 2/$14m and Kiley McDaniel 2/$14m. He signed for 2/$16m
I wouldn’t say those deals smashed expectations.
I read RYU want to return to LA and I don’t see Texas getting Rondon or Donaldson for 3 rd base.
Ryu wants to play with Choo. And the Rangers are legitimate players for Rendon and Donaldson. I hope the Rangers sign Donaldson (3/75MM) that way Jung, Wendzel or Apostel aren’t blocked by Rendon when one of them is ready for MLB. Saying all this if Rendon doesn’t cost more than 210MM for 7 years I wouldn’t mind.
This Wheeler thing gives a good ‘tongue-in-cheek’ trade idea. As soon as some team signs Wheeler to that $100 million contract, when the ink runs dry, that team can trade him to the Cubs for Jason Heyward in a deal where both teams trade their bad contracts. That would be a fun press conference to announce Wheeler’s contract and he puts on his new team’s jersey. Then, after the pictures, he sits next to the Cubs to announce the trade and try on the Cubs jersey, and Heyward is present to try on this new team’s jersey.
It would never happen, but it would make the signing of bad contracts based on the hope that a guy lives up to what analytics says he will be instead of what he’s proven to be, a lot more entertaining and less sad.
Wheeler could sign for 7/140 and still have more value than Heyward. He hasn’t been good for years.
you say “instead of what he’s prove” over the last two seasons Wheeler has had a 3.65 ERA, That’s 16th best in baseball, do you know who is 15th and 17th? I’ll spare you the embarrassment, Strasburg is 15th and MadBum is 16th. Your comment is not based in factual evidence.
Let’s look a those last two season separately… let’s see.. Wheeler had a 3.31 era in 2018 whip of 1.124 and an ERA+ of 112 “12 points above average.” He wasn’t in the top ten or even 20 that year for ERA+… AND THAT WAS THE GOOD YEAR. In 2019 he had an era of 3.96 a whip of 1.259 and an ERA+ at 102… that’s two points above league average. Last year Juilo Teheran had an era of 3.81 and a whip of 1.323… but an era+ of 119! And the year before that he had an era of 3.94 and a whip of 1.173… and an ERA+ of 103… still better. AND HE IS 28 STILL WHEELER IS 29… YOU KNOW WHO’S BIDDING IS IN THE 9 FIGURES THOUGH…wheeler… teheran might get a deal to a rebuilding team…. get your facts straight.
Thank you Rangers29 for providing this before I did.
And to add to this, I’ve seen the guy a lot in our division. He’s a Ricky Nolasco/Mike Pelfrey type waiting to happen – all talent, but no consistent performance.
I’ll borrow a concept that Jack McKeon had for Nolasco that applies for Wheeler too. I’m paraphrasing, “If you stayed focused and consistent, you’d be a real Ace instead of someone that people makes excuses for as they say you have potential to be one.”
MLB has had many guys like Wheeler who have all the tools to be top notch, but either health or his own lack of mental fortitude stands in the way. You don’t pay $100 million for a guy that has not shown he’s a $100 million pitcher…even under the effort to try and paint his last 2 years as making him a top pitcher over the last 2 years compared to guys that have a long body of work, which includes coming big in championship years, compared to 2 years of sporadic success that led his team nowhere despite having teammates that are better than him.
Yes, and I do thinke he has potential, but again… you don’t pay for potential, if that was the case adley rutshman would’ve gotten a 50 million dollar signing bonus.
I mean you just literally proved how ERA+ is flawed by the fact that Teheran is rated so highly, that doesn’t help your case. Also, you keep using just one state and ignoring all of the other ones. Wheeler was top 30 in XFIP, SIERA, K% and hard hit% last season. Again, I’m not saying he’s even worth the money that’s fine to say he’s not (I would just go for Stras at that point) but again saying “he hasn’t done anything” is 100% wrong.
Exactly. That’s what the Cubs did with Heyward.
The problem here with these defenders of Wheeler is that Mets fans fell for the Mets Hype Machine selling that pitching staff as “Five Aces” when they only have one. They can’t go back and admit they are wrong…not when they also fell for the “Generation K’ stuff years ago. At some point, when they keep drinking the Kool-Aid, it’s a reflection of them, not the server at the stand that’s selling it.
Wheeler has to thank the heavens every day that he was a Met so he could be overrated to get this pay day he’s about to have.
I know one thing. A guy who just had a season with a 3.96 ERA ain’t worth $100 million, especially if he only had one good season previously, with an ERA that was also north of 3. Leave $100 million to the guys that actually pitch well for more than two years, with the hopes that one of the ERAs in those seasons was south of 3.
Again, I’m all for having a discussion on whether he is worth the numbers being thrown out but there have been people saying he’s a #3 or #4 type pitcher and that he’s never done anything as a pro and that’s just not true.
Um, the experts have been saying he’s a #3 also. He’s a #1 on a team with thin pitching. Most teams (especially the winning ones) have someone better than him. I guess you know more than them too.
He’s not done anything worth $100 million.
Sorry, but 2 years of so-called success (one of which is an ERA of 3.96) entering your age 30 season means you haven’t done much. That’s a fact when you consider what many many many other pitchers have done by the time they were entering their age 30 season.
Yes I agree, with the fact that he’s not worth the money… BTW how can you quote me for saying “he hasn’t done anything” when I didn’t say that.
Siera, XFIP, blah blah blah. I don’t want a pitcher that can be really good if everything is equal. I want a pitcher that is good regardless of the other circumstances. That measures the heart and fortitude which is what separates a #1 or #2 from a #3 or below.
Again, never said he didn’t do anything as a pro, all I said was that he has comparable numbers to Juilo Teheran, and even though Teheran is younger than Wheeler, he won’t get near the money.
You say “experts”, what experts? You mean like teams who have entire departments focused solely on this very thing who are now saying the exact opposite of what you are? Also his xFIP since 2014 (min 600 innings) is 37th best, his ERA is 36th best, his K% is 27, his SIERA is 40th. That includes his worst season as a pro. Which BTW he’s only ever had one season with an ERA over 4. Again, you want to argue he’s not an ace, go for it. You want to say he’s not worth the money, fine. Want to say he has an injury history, can’t argue with you. However, to say he hasn’t done anything or that he’s pitched like a #3 or #4 is just factually incorrect. I’m literally giving you numbers comparing him to every other pitcher and showing you what he’s done and the only experts that matter strongly disagree with you. Also, for the record I came into this off season not wanting the Twins to sign him, I would have rather had MadBum, until I looked at the actual stats and “what he’s done”.
I hate how people completely dismiss ERA amd prefer ERA “indicators”, which are based primarily in K/9, and k/BB ratio. Finesse pitchers are hated by indicators regardless of actual performance.
Show me on the doll where White Sox touched you.
My guess would be the feet. Except for the Red Hot Chili Peppers of course. (Google it if you are too young.)
feet
Hope the Braves are out of in fact this price tag keeps getting ridiculous
I’d be fine with him at up to 5 years and 125 mil. It’s the going rate for good starting pitching and it looks like he’s past his injury issues and his stuff is only improving.
I’m puzzled how anyone who roots for a team in our division, who has seen this guy pitch, thinks he’s worth 5/$125 million.
bravesfan and I may not agree on other things, but we agree that Wheeler is not worth the current price tag. Somebody is going to regret this signing…almost immediately.
MadBum is a better fit for your Braves.
I’d love the White Sox to get Wheeler. I think he fits with the direction they’re going but at the same time I hate ridiculously large contracts. Especially for pitchers.
I’m sure if they do people will claim it’s a complete overpay and if they don’t, they were too cheap and totally whiffed on him.
Posters who call free agent signings overpays offer nothing to this site. By definition you have to overpay somewhat to be the highest bidder. Duh! Stop telling us the sky is blue and water is wet ya dumb’tards.
I mean I think at this point the bidding seems to be getting to the point of you mine as well go after Strasburg but people commenting on here about how teams are just basing this off of potential, and nothing Wheeler has actually done, are just ignorant. He’s been a top 25 pitcher in baseball over the last two season by just about any metric you want to pick, xFIP, ERA, SIERA, WAR, K%, hard hit %. Stop saying things that are blatantly false.
Kleppy we get it, you’re a Wheeler Stan or his agent or his GF
Barry Zito was more accomplished than Wheeler and even he did not live up to his contract. Do you think Wheeler can spin 7 2/3 IP of 6 hit baseball in an elimination NLCS game?
oh wait he’s not good enough with DeGrom and Thor to get his team to the playoffs?
First off evaluating a pitcher based on his teams performance is maybe the dumbest thing ever, so by your own logic Degrom sucks too? Barry Zito signing a contract a decade ago has literally nothing to do with this. I mean I though a lot of the comments on here were uninformed yours are just beyond asinine and completely irrelevant. Also you ignore the fact that I stated I would just try to sign Strasburg at that point but sure keep talking like an idiot.
I always forget how horrible BBR is until I try to use it again.
Yep, such a horrible site since absolutely no one agrees with you. Must be BBR.
There goes Jon Daniels using logic again…
At a certain point Wheeler stops being a potential bargain ace and becomes a #3/4 being paid ace money. Just go after some of the lower tier guys if he’s going to cost too much, or if you’re still in on him at this point reallocate your resources to go after Strasburg.
I don’t disagree on the Strasburg logic but either he’s and ace or he’s a #3/#4, what he’s being paid doesn’t change that.
MadBum is going to Texas – book it
Hey, I know this posting style. You used to be on CBS posting.
So, as a Phils Phan, not sure where they are going to put their cash..I happen to like Wheeler so wouldn’t crash and burn if he was signed there..What I’d prefer, is MadBum and Hamels..with those two, you are not tying up long term…Phils still need a 3rd baseman unless they grow a set and play Alec Bohm…not sure Klentak has the stones to do that..time will tell
Never mind….Hamels to sign with the Bravos…$18m
Hamel at his age signed a 1 year deal with braves for 18 mil…….so in most aof your arguments that is an over pay!
If Derick Johnson and the Reds get ahold of Wheeler and straighten up some consistency issues then he would be worth it to the nth degree
Castillo
Gray
Wheeler
Bauer
Would be a great 4 to run out
In my mind they would still have to sign a veteran outfielder with playoff presence to make a top tier team.
Could be scary nonetheless
Why would he hold to a team thats in full rebuild mode. He’d be miserable playing for the white Sox.
Someone’s gonna make a big mistake on Wheeler
Would’ve liked him but I’m fine with this. Ryu, Bum, or Teheran would be great adds.
Go get Cole and Donaldson. They have 315MM to spend.