Red Sox right fielder Mookie Betts’ name has been bandied about in offseason trade speculation, particularly with the club trying to get under the $208MM luxury-tax threshold in 2020. But the Red Sox still have a very good roster, and Betts is an irreplaceable member of it, so there doesn’t seem to be any hurry on their part to move him.
The Red Sox, led by new chief baseball officer Chaim Bloom, aren’t “actively shopping” the former AL MVP, according to Rob Bradford of WEEI.com. Trading Betts is not part of Boston’s ideal plan for cutting payroll, though the team may at least consider offers, Bradford suggests.
As of now, the Red Sox are projected for a luxury-tax outlay of $237MM-plus for 2020, per Jason Martinez of Roster Resource. Getting rid of Betts’ projected $27.7MM arbitration salary would put them in striking distance of $208MM, and he’d likely bring back a nice return at the same time. With that said, trading Betts – the Red Sox’s best player and one of the game’s elite performers – could cripple their chances of pushing for a playoff return next season. The 27-year-old Betts was a 10-WAR player as recently as 2018, his MVP campaign, and though his numbers dropped a season ago, he was still worth upward of 6 WAR.
Going forward, Betts is in line to become a free agent in less than a year’s time, but the Red Sox figure to put on a full-court press to extend him before truly considering a trade. Betts has indicated on multiple occasions he’s gearing up to test free agency, but as we saw when the Angels extended Mike Trout before last season, an enticing enough offer can keep a superstar from trying his luck on the market.
In Betts’ case, an extension should mean a guarantee approaching or exceeding $400MM (Trout got 10 years and $360MM in new money). But if the Red Sox aren’t willing to go to those lengths, or if Betts is dead set on shopping himself around the league next winter, he could dominate trade rumors leading up to the July deadline. In the meantime, left-hander David Price and center fielder Jackie Bradley Jr. seem like more attainable trade candidates on a team that’s hoping to reduce its payroll while remaining competitive.
Who would he come close to trout? He’s a stud but he’s not close to trout.
The Market has changed. Cole is making as much as Trout now.
Trout’s bWAR 2018-19: 18.5.
Betts’ bWAR 2018-19: 17.7.
Still think they aren’t close?
Trout has “Trout-like” seasons every year, Betts has had 1, maybe 2.
People type 1 stat and are like see dude I’m the rightest, trout is the best player ever, betts is not, the inflation of prices will put mookie in mikes territory though, as they should
Even if Betts isn’t close to Trout, he’s closer than everyone else is today. (I expect Soto and Acuna to close the gap soon.)
I remember when people used to debate that Harper was at least comparable if not better than Trout. Career WAR Harper 31.5 Trout 72.5. Although Betts is a great player, he won’t have Trout’s consistency.
And last year wasn’t one of them.
Mickey Mantle, inarguably one of the greatest players ever to play baseball, was 72.1 at the same age as Trout, who is .04 higher. Betts, regardless of year-by-year WAR is half that. Trout is currently projected for a 168 career WAR – uh, that’s the highest WAR, EVER! Bonds is second with 162 Ruth-162, Mays-156…..
Trout cannot be named in the same conversation as Betts as it pertains to player performance value, except on a very limited basis.
We are possibly witnessing [one] of the greatest players of all time. Not the greatest player (I don’t think WAR is the final determination). Betts is a great player, not even close to Trout category.
Trout’s average season since he became a full-time player in 2012: 9 WAR
Betts’ average season since he became a full-time player in 2015: 7 WAR
Betts is a very good player compared to everyone else in MLB, but they aren’t close. Trout resides on his own planet.
Both solid points, close in bWAR but Betts doesn’t have the sample size Trout does. Need to re-evaluate after Betts gets a couple more years under his belt.
Let’s see how Betts plays AFTER he gets that big money contract. Then we’ll see.
he is one of a generational players in the red sox stadium. in other ballparks he is just a good player. that must be the reason why sox are not being offered what they want.
Can’t say one of a generational player. Those are one in a generation , not multiple.
Viz,
Get your head and eyes examined they guys one of the best players in the game along with Trout!
Viz, He’s still very very good on the road. Sure he hits better at Fenway so you can discount him a little, but not a lot. .
Betts is Hall of Fame great. Trout is an all time great.
Last five years… Fangraphs.
Trout 44.2
Betts 35.4
Next Best 27.8
There is nothing wrong with being Hall of Fame great.
Slow down with Betts HOF…. Trout has the longevity
I would say there are very few players with a 35.4 WAR in the first five years of their career who are not in the Hall of Fame.
Betts isn’t on pace for being in the Hall of Fame, he’s well beyond on pace for the Hall of Fame.
Betts numbers, so far, are Hall of Fame great.
The second paragraph makes zero sense. But I 100% agree that Betts has been and is on the HOF track.
Bets is about a decade away from HOF.
It’s time to get new meds MAc.
The second paragraphs is he isn’t “just” on pace for the Hall of Fame, he’s well beyond pace for the Hall of Fame.
Fits65. People like you are a dime a dozen. Just insults, no real retort.
Betts’ has a five year WAR 35.4, Based on your handle, I checked 65-69
Seven players had a WAR above 30 those five years. All are in the Hall of Fame. Every one. The 8th, Brooks Robinson had a WAR of 28.5. He’s in the Hall of Fame as well. .
Those were Betts first five year. No one expects those to be his best five years. He is WELL BEYOND Hall of Fame pace. .
I’m not the one on meds.
Throw a “just” between “isn’t” and “on” in the second paragraph and it makes sense what Mac’s trying to say.
Brooks Robinson didn’t get to the HOF just for half a dozen seaons where he could hit, then play regular where he couldn’t hit his weight. He’s the best defensive 3b I ever saw play and probably many other old timers as well who have seen GG+ caliber players at 3b. He made plays most would dream of. For some reason he was known as the human vacuum cleaner.
Not sure of your point. Like Robinson, Betts has a tremendous amount of value added because of his defense, Over the last five years, Betts is by far the best defensive RF in baseball.
But regardless, value is value.
I saw Robinson play, as much as anyone but with TV the way it was in the 60s and with so few cameras, how much did any of us see Robinson? I’m not sure he was any better defensively than Beltre or Chapmen or Arenado. Since I didn’t live in Baltimore and lived when teams were only had TV 25 games a year, I see more of Chapmen and Arenado in a month then I did Robinson in his entire career.
Macburns: your perspective is valid and your WAR comparison for two seasons is a legitimate measurement….. for two seasons. Nevertheless, the reality is that every baseball expert, player, and manager all concur Trout is the greatest player of our generation.
Also, most accurately describe Trout as otherworldly when compared with any other baseball talent. WAR is a complete number to evaluate total baseball performance, but when speaking to a talent like Trout, it is in every category that he continually exceeds that makes him great, in addition to his intangibles.
Mookie does not deserve the same salary as Trout because of the market; we are talking about two years, not ten or twenty. However, I acknowledge the reality that he may very well match Trout’s contract, monetarily.
Just because trout signed a team friendly deal doesn’t have any bearing on mookies market.
Trout signed his deal for nearly the same as machado/harper. Think about that.
Trout is FAR FAR superior than either machado or harper, but, he signed for not much more than either.
Great as Trout is, he left money on the table in his deal. I expect mookie to match or exceed it. (I also don’t think the sox should pay it)
Betts deserves whatever the market will bear.
Well, your position is simply viewing the value from a different perspective. You’re talking about willingness to pay, I’m talking about comparative performance value, Which, is exactly why I said I wouldn’t be surprised if he got that amount.
And, he signed for 70 & 100 million more than Machado or Harper, which is pretty substantial for an extension v. FA. I do, however, understand your point. Betts’ performance doesn’t change mine
He will only get what some team offers and as just mentioned above expectations on the next CBA could impact things. Trout left crumbs on the table when compared to Boegarts. Not comparing the players but something has to give as a team shouldn’t be penalized for developing a talented team. As I’ve said before, give a benefit for re-signing your own players, at least those that you drafted.
Machado, $30 million AAV. Trout $36 million AAV. Its not close.
Machado: 4.5 war/season avg. 30m per season.
Trout: 8.3 war/season avg. 36m per season.
If you believe in war as a measure of talent/production, trout is paid almost half as much as machado.
A lot of good points on this thread, as mad as you all might be at each other. Betts is not on Trout’s level, I don’t believe anyone in the game today is, but that doesn’t mean someone won’t pay it to get Betts. Cole is not the best pitcher of this era, not by a long shot… but he’s awesome, really awesome, right now. And there’s the rub. If your team has the money, your team will pay for the talent, and hopefully it’s worth the ride.
Mookie will not match or exceed anything close to Trout. His 2020 season is going to see decline in his games.
@AltSoxFan: I understand your point, it’s just the market never has worked in that kind of direct relationship, ever. We simply disagree on the premise which establishes the salary, and then how the salary is applied to the player.
This was a great thread, imo. Many great points and opposing arguments presented well.
Although John, Koamalu, Dewey, and me were correct (of course), everyone did a great job to start the new year.
Time will tell for Betts’ performance, but Trout is an undeniable first ballot HOF player.
Wrong
Absolutely. His WAR value has already exceeded his extension. He could never play another game, and when all was said and done, there’s still 130M in surplus value for the Angels.
As a Sox fan, they are not close except Trout has spent more time on the DL/IL the last three years. I’m not a WAR fan which is not as objective as it’s supposed to be. That said, expectations for each are not the same. My only questions are who would you pick first if you are starting a team and planning on winning in three to four years and what do you expect to build the team around in addition to one of them? Putting so much payroll is getting risky for all teams. I’m wondering if the next CBA will have modifications with respect to players on the IL or at least who qualify for insurance compensation.
fWAR is very objective. bWAR is based on subjective observations to decide what part of a play a player gets credit for. That may work for pitchers where you have to go strictly on the numbers, but it has no place in grading position players.
My view is the old computer saying GIGO. Garbage in, garbage out. As I understand it, WAR, fWAR and others are just different computer assimilations of what is supposed to happen. Do they take into account weather or give more value to something happening after an emotional event? What about weighting things based on so called big at bats? With defense, is there more weight given to Bettitendi’s great catch against Houston because it won a key playoff game? Also is there more value having JBJ between bettitendi and Betts so each benefit or does having him in center hurt the others because he catches some balls that they could have caught? To me the eye test is the best and so many stats were created for salary arguments between agents and GMs.
I think they’re very close, but Trout gets a slight edge.
The Edge is a lot more than that.
4 years from now Mookie Betts will be a small guy that’s lost his physical skills of speed, quickness, and strength. He’s Andrew McCutchen in four years.
Mike Trout will continue to mash he’s a large man and power numbers and probably average will translate till 35 years of age. Not Mookie.
I’m a Red Sox fan and I hope we trade mookie at some point this winter. I’d rather have four guys to replenish the farm then a lame duck season where the Sox are not going to compete for a World Series probably.
Too many things have to line up perfectly as they did in 2018. Those starting pitchers are too comfortable and make way too much money to lay it all on the line.
Position players won’t capture lightning in a bottle as a group again. Trade mookie get a great minor league starting pitcher Prospect plus whatever else b-type guys or a serviceable outfield starter. Wait till the deadline and we won’t get as much, but in Bloom I trust.
Talent-wise Trout is above everyone else but you could argue that he could’ve received more in a free agent market. All it takes is two teams to bid for Betts whereas Trout signed an extension.
sportsfan101,
If you think so. Doesn’t matter either way whose got a WS ring!!
Robert Horry seven rings. Greatest NBA player of the last 30 years !!
Only this connor dude would say betts may get that much more than trout. Laughable. This writer is light weight. The worst at mlbtr
Because he would be on the open market. You go to free agency, you make more money. Trout would have made more if he had gone to free agency.
I agree with both of you guys: I don’t believe Betts will get what Trout made and Trout on the open market would’ve probably receive $500MM……. from the YANKEES!!!!
One can only dream the Angels get desperate enough to trade him to the Yankees…. never happen –
REDS
REDS
REDS
RED STOCKINGS
All Betts are off.
Nothing for Sale
Because it’s not worth the Price.
You guys come off like Workman BS’ing on a Bradley truck.
I’m eagery awaiting what will Bloom come next spring.
I love it. Lol
Fantastic!
La’Chaim
Of course not because they know they won’t get fair market value for him. Keep him, trade Price or Eovaldi while trying to compete and dump salary at the same time.
The Red Sox get nothing for him when he leaves.
Nothing.
No compensation.
They won a WS with him. I would say that’s not too bad…
The only way it makes sense to say that is if they win it in 2020. The past is irrelevant when it comes to making a decision of this magnitude (trading/letting him walk).
Nope. And they also will have two last place finishes with him.
Just saying.
Not true. They get a draft pick and the ability to spend $400m on a bunch of very good players.
They could get much better than a fourth round pick if they trade Betts now. Just like how the Nats would have been able to get a better prospect than Tyler Dyson if they had traded Harper when they had the chance.
Yeah, I think there should be a higher level of compensation when real stars leave via free agency.
I’m not saying the signing teams should have to forfeit more by signing them, just the team that loses said player should receive more.
When you lose a top 20 player in the game via free agency, you should at least get a pick at the end of the 1st round…AT THE VERY LEAST!!
What they can’t replace is the 7-10 WAR they get from him playing for them. I still think its all posturing and he is traded this offseason.
I think teams should get a waiver that allows them to go over the CBT by a certain amount without paying penalties for resigning their own FA. Maybe 2 players per team can be veteran exceptions to the CBT. That way the Red Sox could resign Betts without impact on the CBT tax.
Koamalu, almost like the NBA.., Bird rights.
Koamalu – this is a GREAT idea! I wonder if anyone has posited this at the management level (one would think they have).
This would presumably be very favorable to both the fans and the teams. Moreover, it would engender a nostalgic approach of keeping players for the duration of their careers.
One of the best compromises to the CBT I’ve seen in MLB. Great job.
Baseball is the best sport, imo, but that doesn’t mean it can’t learn from others.
Koamalu
Betts has only gotten 7+ WAR twice since ’14.
The ONLY chance the Sox have to even make a W/C spot is to stand pat and stay over the cap. Even that is likely not enough. They will get NOTHING other than salary relief out of trading Price and JBJ. If they trade Price they will be lucky to be .500.. Sox are in a HUGE HUGE HUGE mess with no real way out.
Good time to sell hard and tank for a pick. Then turn around quick.
Not so much tank for a pic. But rather get under the tax, avoid repeater penalties and spend again before ’21 season. It’s the repeater stuff the Red Sox are trying to avoid this time around. Plus the team is getting older each season.. and theyre not going to compete standing Pat this year.
That’s the legacy of Dombrowksi wherever he goes. He’ll sign a bunch of big names, trade the farm for more, win division titles and pennants, admittedly win World Series championships, but then leave the team with no prospect pipeline and dealing with large contracts. This happened with the Florida Marlins, the Detroit Tigers, and now the Boston Red Sox
I think you are right but at the end of the day John Henry had to SIGN OFF on all DD’s deals and we did win a WS. Maybe that was the plan but now Henry should come clean and tell Red Sox fans that we are re-building and should prepare for a few “down” years.
Yes they need to go hard for the best draft pick this year. They can probably sign Betts after he sees that his mega dream deal isn’t out there for him.
The Sox don’t have to do a John Middleton and disappear for seven years.
Yep, you know if DD is your GM you’ll have a great chance to win a World Series for a few years, but sell your soul to do it.
Speaks to a larger point about fan expectations. He wins championships, which is supposedly the end goal for years of ‘rebuilding’ that makes fans excuse losing seasons.
When do you go for broke vs. holding onto prospects or not signing that free agent? It’s bleak for Boston now, but no one was complaining as he assembled *arguably* the best Red Sox team ever.
While other GM’s hold onto their precious top prospects, DD builds winners and champions. Every stop he’s been at, he’s gone to the World Series and has two rings to show for it. He’s a winner, not a sustainable winner, but a winner nonetheless and isn’t that the goal instead of being a GM who “can build a good system”?
Sox fans will NEVER settle for a 7 year disappearance. I’m pissed after just one year given the direction John Henry wants to take. The one hope I have with the Bloom hiring is that he realizes the importance of developing some homegrown PITCHING !!!!
John Middleton sure does live in your head
Did he win in Detroit?
And how many seasons were his teams lousy towards the end of his tenure and afterwards?
Pinstriped, your bias is showing big time. DD in Florida was mandated to strip the team down and no one trades from strength when everyone knows the situation. In Detroit he was under opposite orders: to try to win at all costs including neglecting the future and in Boston, ownership saw three last place finishes surrounded by a fortunate if not lucky win in 13. Such forced Sherington to make big money free agent decisions he wouldn’t otherwise had made and in doing so, DD inherited a good nucleus that he added to but no international pool money to spend. Ownership approved his spending but even then only Sale and Eovaldi are long term questionable, That money is offset in my view by waiting out JDM and inking Boegarts. Where he loses big time is his relief market evaluation. Overall I’d take him anytime.
PinstripedPride… , or we could be the Yankees and finish first every season with no down years but have zero World Series in the last little while.
I’ll take what the Red Sox have done any day of the week: win it all, retool, win it all, retool. Rinse and repeat. All hail Dave Dombrowski. He brought in a championship. Now it’s a challenge to get back and rebuild the team. Building businesses is about being challenged. Love it.
Gary, I’m 70 so I would see it a little differently. Yankee are still the franchise everyone is trying to compare themselves to. The playoffs are a crap shoot, the best rarely win. In today’s baseball their are no byes, so anything can happen.
@Dewey: I don’t believe it’s bias on the part of @Pinstripepride, I think he’s speaking objectively about the MO of DD, not that he usurped ownership and surreptitiously operated on his own nefarious plan.
In fact, you both seem to agree, just on the different aspects of DD getting hired and the motive begins said hiring.
@Gary: You bring up the most contentious point of all- do teams want to be the Dodgers and go to the postseason every year, or Boston and give the fans a ring? It boils down to what the management and fans expectations are. Very rarely now are teams like the Yankees and Giants and win multiple World Series in a five-year period.
You’re right Mick7. The Giants are the only dynasty of this century, having won 3 in 5 years. The Yankees of the 90s were the next dynasty before that, winning 4 in 5 years.
Slider32: 70? You don’t post a day over 32! You saw Mick, Williams, and Mays play; you can truly give testimony as to the “eye test” of those players v. Trout, Harper, Betts, etc… I would like to read your opinion, if you’re willing to post it.
I don’t think you understand what fare market value is. One year rentals simply don’t draw huge returns.
Also, why do you mention trading Price or Evioldi like it’s a revelation? They have been trying to move Price but that’s pretty hard to so with that contract.
Cincinnati
Betts is great but comparing him and Trout is unfair to Betts. Plus Betta plays in a hitter friendly park and division
Trout has better WAR numbers because of his park (WAR is park adjusted).
Trout has better WAR numbers because Trout is better than Betts. He plays the more valuable position on defense and he creates more on offense.
move Betts to CF & trade Bradley Jr. to clear payroll space. rotate Benintendi & Martinez LF/RF depending on stadium & sign Cameron Maybin for OF. obviously Andrew backing up Mookie in center
Hard to find a taker for JBJ. His defensive metrics were way down last year, right on schedule for his age, and he’s a horrid hitter. Someone will likely take him but Sox might have to pay down his salary to get anything back.
Even if the Red sox eat part of his deal, they take it all off of their CBT tax payroll.
Nope. Whatever they eat remains on their CBT.
Betts won’t sniff what Harper got, maybe not even Manny.
Betts is too small and he’s on the grass. Not happening.
Someone is gonna pay Mookie but it better not be the Sox.
Mookie isn’t seeing $300 million. Maybe a Rendon contract.
Betcha an American dollar Betts signs for over $300MM.
It’s a bet.
Betts gets $300m easy. $325-350m is my guess.
Do9dger will pay Betts next year.
Their track record says otherwise.
Yes, because they have not handed a $100+ million free agent contract since giving signing Zack Greinke to a 6 year/$147 million contract before the 2013 season.
What does “on the grass” mean? And you’re wrong.
Price looks to be a good piece for the Angels, Phillies, or Cards, while Bradley is a fit for the Angels, Phillies, Reds, or Indians.
The Phillies are out of money on John Middleton’s orders.
Middleton is the dictator. If he says no more money then there’s no more money.
As now constructed they finish 3rd in the East at best, they need another pitcher.
I think once they trade Price and likely JBJ that they will be 4th in the AL East. They need more than ONE pitcher and they have no money for even one even though Edwin Jackson is available.
John Middleton is OK with that. Middleton is counting on his N.L. Least partners to let him take his turn as the N.L. Least “winner”.
The Mets and Nationals will slowly step back each year while the Braves continue to play the part of the “small market poor team” while the national MLB media let the Braves get away with it the same as they let Toronto play that role too.
NL Least?? Seriously?? You mean the division that had 2 of the 4 best teams in the NL last year, and the ultimate WS winner??
The NL Beast, I mean, NL East is arguably the best division in baseball right now..Maybe the AL West with the Astros, A’s, and the upcoming Rangers and Angels could take the argument, but even if one disagrees, they certainly are not one of the worst divisions..That is just ignorant and completely laughable..
He is a troll. Ignore him.
Yes but all the Sox can hope for in return is the salary relief. They are NOT getting any serviceable talent in return.
That is ultimately the goal. With those two guys. Mookie brings back Talent, price and Jackie Bradley bring salary relief. They’ll get traded in the spring. Bloom was just seeing if he could possibly get talent but it looks like he’s out of luck.
How the bloody ‘ell is JBJ a fit for the Angels? Because they don’t have a center fielder? Yeesh. Reds have too many OF as it is. Indians can’t pay that much. Phillies maybe but they have other needs. The teams you should be looking at are the Mets, Cubs, and Dbacks.
Bradley isn’t a fit for any NL team as a starter if they want to be a contender. Reds need and want offense – no way they want JBJ.
Angels are not even discussing a trade involving Price. Right now Billy is only interested in guys that are rock solid innings eaters. If they didn’t throw 30 starts last year, they aren’t part of the plan. .
And WTH do we need with JBJ? Did you forget who our CF is? JBJ is not displacing Upton in LF and he is no better than Goodwin in RF. That is not a fit.
If he really wants that much money, trade him and move on. He’s not worth $400, he’s not better than Trout.
Sox don’t have the STONES to trade Mookie. He OBVIOUSLY does NOT want to stay in Boston for some reason and he WON’T say why. Sox drafted and developed him and have paid him well. He is WAY overpaid in arbitration but I guess that spat the two had a couple years back has done the damage.
I see Price and JBJ being DUMPED for payroll and then the mighty Brock Holt being re-signed to placate Red Sox fans.
Prob so, I don’t know why JBJ is so well-loved in Boston. I def see Price moved, JBJ prob as well, and Mookie won’t be resigned.
If he’s still there at the trade deadline, move him.
Boston loves gritty players who grind and don’t give up.
JBJ was mishandled when first called up in the early years. He kept battling. He’s always been a streaky player, but needs constant AB to hit those streaks. You’ll get a couple months of mendoza, but then a couple months of better-than-trout ripping the cover off on one of his streaks.
It’s the effort and the grind, and the putting his body on the line on all those outfield gems. He could not push sonhard, shorten his range, and improve his metrics. He doesnt, he leaves it all on the turf.
That quality endears him to many boston fans.
I’d take that swap. Price/jbj for holt? Done deal.
So are they just waiting for the Dodgers to take all there really bad contracts again?
Yes !!!
Astros
Springer for Betts & prospect
No !!! Springer AND prospect for Betts. Betts is a better player than Springer.
A little. Maybe. Springer was a 6 win player last year. Both on walk years, but at least Springer hasn’t declared categorically that he won’t sign an extension.
Springer is cheaper, is from New England, parents still live there and his wife is from NY. Seems like a good idea for BoSox to consider. Trade for a player that might be easier to resign?
@thickiedon You can re-frame that and say that they absolutely shouldn’t trade for Springer because he’s from New England so he’ll be easy for them to sign even if they don’t trade for him first.
But Springer is cheaper this year. Isn’t that really what they’re after?
Thick – where a player is from has little or no bearing on where they sign. Otherwise Trout would be a Phillie, Harper would be closer to Vegas, Cole would be an Angel, Strasburg would be a Padre, etc. That notion has been proven irrelevant over and over again with few exceptions.
It’s not irrelevant. It is a factor. Springer was a tough draft pick to sign. Boston will cut salary this year intending on spending for ‘21. Betts will sign massive deal elsewhere or he would’ve already resigned. Springer, probably going to be injured at some point this year, could be offered big deal by Bloom in season.
Next year is a weak FA class
thick – Was that response for me? I don’t see the correlation.
As eph289 pointed out, those players who people on here say will sign with their hometown team almost never end up doing that. But if Springer actually did want to play close to home, that would not be a reason for the Red Sox to trade for him. It would be a reason against it. Bloom doesn’t have to trade for him to be able to offer him a “big deal.”
Astros are tapped out on money. That right there kills your idea.
Thickiedon.., the Red Sox do not trade mookie for what would be a wash. Might as well keep him. They trade Mookie for four prospects or three prospects, whatever. Springer can be signed next winter as a free agent.
Cowards.
“Report: Red Sox Aren’t “Actively Shopping” Mookie Betts”
–
Shocker!
When do we find that the Indians aren’t “actively shopping” Lindor or Clevinger; and the Rockies aren’t “actively shopping” Arenado.
Makes for clicks during the off-season – although the ridiculous trade proposals are pretty insulting to anyone with MLB knowledge.
Knock those teams FO’s out with an outlandish offer and sure they’ll move those guys – as any team will move star players if a GM like Preller, Klentak, or Williams shows up offering too much because their impatient owner is pushing them as what they promised isn’t happening.
Red Sox logic give us a top prospect, take on all of JBJs contract so we can get below the luxury tax limit.
If their idea of a top prospect is a half-eaten hot dog then everyone’s happy!
I think 2 lottery tickets or a single 20-30 org rated prospect gets JBJ with all his salary.
Does he mean a prospect for mookie, plus take Jackie Bradley jr and all his money? Two separate trades?
Certainly no baseball fan, Red Sox fan or otherwise, thinks the Red Sox can get anything for Jackie Bradley jr. It’s getting rid of his salary… that’s the goal.
Mookie had a great yr in 2018 because JD was b in the lineup, he needs it. If he’s dead on leaving they need to trade him, but if not they will need to open the checkbook, similar to what the Evil Empire would hafta do for their star player, like the Judge. Good luck Bloom, you got a difficult task. Goodbye Price n his horrible attitude. JBJ I’ll be sad to lose but ty hats baseball.
There’s probably a lack of serious suitors. Small market teams aren’t going to blow up their entire farm system for a 1 year rental and big market teams aren’t going to blow up their entire farm system when they can just wait another year to sign him.
But I’m sure someone will bite if the Red Sox lower their demands.
Betts isn’t expensive to get. A bottom third Top 100 prospect.
The Red Sox empty farm needs that and they get nothing in compensation because they’re a big market team. The qualifying offer thing is only for the teams that get free draft picks like the Cardinals and Rockies.
4th round if over cbt, 2nd round comp is under cbt.
It’s not much, but, it’s something.
I believe the payroll “goal not mandate” stems from getting the better comp b picks for mookie/jdm after 2020, and, getting the full share of Oaklands Rev sharing refund
Their goal is to get under the luxury tax threshold but if they keep and extend him at a much higher salary than $27 million then they won’t reach that goal. Doesn’t seem likely to keep him and get under at the same time
The Red Sox aren’t winning anything this year so sell hard and get a good pick. They can sign Betts next winter after he sees that he’s not getting crazy money on the open market.
Betts will get money just not the windfall he thinks he’ll get. He does nothing without JD hitting in the lineup. To this day I have no idea why stupid Price thinks he could verbally attack Eck n fans would be good with that. Eck isn’t wearing a RS cap in the HOF, but he’s a RS too, n a good one.
Betts and Lindor are big moves for their teams, but the longer they wait to move them the less they get for them. Both teams are caught between a rock and a hard place. They might not win with them and can’t win without them. Both are going to test free agency, and their is no way to get full value for them. If they don;t trade them this winter they will only get the return like Machado got the O’s.
1. Betts has one year before FA. Lindor 2.
2. Their current teams will get more from them as a rental in an in-season trade. Teams that believe they can get to the WS in 2020 with them on board would offer more at that time, then this off-season. Currently we don’t know which key players on contenders will be injured or having bad seasons in 2020, and/or which unexpected teams become legitimate contenders.
Taking on the current salary of a Betts or Lindor knowing that they’re only rentals as well as packaging up some major cheap, controllable players is not something teams do without understanding what the situation is……not what they project it may be.
Wow, a rational, complete thought, and an insightful and intelligent one at that..Congrats, that is a feat that is not easily attained on this site!! lol
How do the Red Sox consider themselves to be contenders next years with the injured list pioneers of a starting rotation and the Swiss cheese bullpen with no defined reliable closer. Their pitching is a complete joke. They’ll be lucky to finish above any team in the AL East other than the Orioles.
Fangraphs has them 4th best in the MLB right now, so crazier things have happened.
Fangraphs off-season projections are historically awful.
They get some right at times, but usually I outperform them…..and I don’t pour over statistics and videos, calling up people in the business to discuss situations, working along with others for 8-12 hours a day, 6-7 days a week.
And I’m hardly the only person following MLB that outperforms them .
What matter is not what I or anyone other then Chiam and his staff think….and he’s not the sort of guy that Henry brings in to go all out in 2020…if Henry wanted that he’d entice DD back.
Nobody gets it right all the time, that’s why they play the game. I like looking at the team WAR, and looking at the last 2 or 3 years of every player to make my projection. We know what they say about opinions.
Perez is slotted at #5.
Sox would get a lower era rolling out the pitching machine to the mound than that garbage.
NO WAY they’re 4th in mlb in anything as currently constructed
Jesus man, what did he ever do to you..Perez isn’t THAT bad..lol He will be better than Porcello was last year, so that is something right!? lol
Well, he actually has point, because Perez is 53-56 in his career with a 4.72 ERA and he has had only one season with a sub-4.00 ERA and that was in 2013, he had a 3.62 ERA that year as well as a 10-6 record, but did it in just 20 starts and 124.1 innings pitched.
On a side note no Chat between 11:30 and 12:30 tonight???
Donaldson is signing tonight and Betts is getting traded to Cincinnati as the ball drops in Times Square.
I’d say ‘whew’ but I wasn’t watching the latter anyway.
Maybe the Red Sox are hoping Betts will accept the QO so he can build his value?
Surely you can’t be serious?
Well, heck yeah. I mean, why not?
And don’t call me Shirley.
looks like I picked the wrong week to stop sniffing glue.
He’s counting on having a bad 2020 to rebuild value in 2021? Aren’t we the prognosticator?!?
Hey, when you get a chance, look at what flew above your head!
Palm, meet forehead. Forehead, meet palm.
Rebuild his value? What are you talking about?
Betts is no Trout. The end
Thanks Einstein.
Trade him. Period. Him leaving in FA will have the same effect on the fanbase as them trading him.
Are you sure about that? Question mark?
Yes! Exclamation point! Exclamation point! Exclamation point! Exclamation point! Exclamation point! Exclamation point! Exclamation point! One!
Ship him. If he doesn’t want to do an extension, then we him go.
Nimmo Smith and the farm system! lol
Red Sox will ask for a King’s Ransom. And no one will bite. He’s staying put.
agreed. And then he will leave as a FA and the Sox will get a 4th rd pick.
That’s what they’ve done during the winter meetings I’m sure. As we hit Spring training then they’ll settle for two or three guys.. hopefully one of them a top prospect. Shoot for the Sun and you may reach the Moon.
It’s going to be interesting to see how Bloom navigates the cap and the Betts situation. He is going to have a tough time moving him for top prospects even though he is worth it.
In theory yes, but In reality it’s a select market. It’s significantly thinned, because Betts is “expensive,” but also due to risk adverse GMs. You basically have to be a WS contender to trade for him at this point. Your leverage is that he’s a FA next season. From a GMs perspective it doesn’t make much sense to trade for him now, unless you’re trading at a steep discount. You can basically trade for him for 50 cents on the dollar come trade deadline, and easily beat a potential 4th round pick.
The only leverage Bloom can play is being creative and finding a way to move Price/and or Eovaldi with a CBT trick. Bloom is in a tough spot in general, because if all goes well they can compete. They have the talent if all goes perfectly to slide into that second wild card. That would entail bounce backs and health from Sale and Price along with Rodriguez’s continued development. But that requires all to go well. DD did a ton of great things, but the cupboard is pretty bare in terms of plug in guys. The nail in his coffin really was Eovaldi, even if he was a playoff hero. He probably would have been given some latitude with Sale, and been able to work around the tax. That would have required him finding some other teams less valued pieces, that could perform a job for the Soxs. If getting under the threshold is all that is important that’s a tough sell for Soxs fans. The saving grace though may be Blooms familiarity with having to be creative
Nate is not the expensive issue, Price is the expensive issue. Nate ended up with elbow issues cuz he overused himself to win the WS. No ones fault, just a fact.
Oakland is the perfect landing spot, with Piscotty being moved either in the deal or a different one. I’m pretty sure Montas+someone for Betts gets done.
The Luxury Tax Penalty needs to be estimated if the team remains roughly “as is”.
The team needs to determine if they intend to offer Betts a large LT contract or if they think JBJ is worth keeping at $11M. Both are FA’s after 2020.
Removing Betts and JBJ gets them to about $200M either now or during or after 2020.
There is an obvious balance between getting something for them or just cutting JBJ loose and issuing a QO to Betts.
If they are out of it at the trade deadline then it’s a no brainer to move Betts then.
The rest of the team is generally “in place”.
Pedroia goes away after 2021.
Once they get this worked out then they can move forward.
It would seem logical that they will be unable to keep Betts as they are already at or over the Luxury Tax Limit although this is a shelf imposed decision.
But if they couldn’t win in 2019 with Betts and they are out of it at the 2020 trade deadline then why would keeping Betts be worth it if they can’t win with him now?
That’s a serious chunk of change to risk on just one player and it cripples the team’s flexibility going forward.
Plus it also seems like some other teams, well under the Luxury Tax Threshold, are currently willing to take on that risk as they have been issuing the large LT contracts.
And watching Tampa and Oakland have a better record at a fraction of Boston’s payroll in 2019 should make any reasonable logical owner and Head of Baseball Operations realize spending big money can be an anchor dragging a team to mediocrity.
Yes it’s frustrating to watch low payroll teams succeed, but that’s why we hired a Tampa guy !!
I like what you said here but the down time will only be one season at most. There’s no way we are looking to 2022. It’s a reset year this year if at all possible, then go for it again in 21. But great post.
Organizing all those sentences into a few paragraphs would help.
Anyone that puts Mookie Betts in the same sentence with Mike Trout just needs to go to another site and give up baseball talk in general! In the same vein, people calling Trout the best ever needs to give that up as well! I’m sure Mantle, Mays, Aaron, And yes Bonds would definitely argue with you about that! His first 9 years Trout has put up some impressive numbers but to touch any of these I just named, give the man another 9 years of those numbers to be in the same league. Given how fickle the players are today, I really don’t see it happening! Every few years someone hypes up the next can’t miss for the best ever just to fade from memory. It’s just a ploy to sell merch and put asses in the seats. Pretty sad Harold Baines can make it in but none of the players in the past 25 years will be allowed.
“Mike Trout has three more MVPs than Mookie Betts.” There, I did it, but I think I’ll stay on the app and keep talking baseball. Maybe you should quit both though. You were making a decent point about Trout needing more time to be the best ever, but you ran off the tracks, plummeted into a ravine and died a firey death in the latter sentences. IRT all 5 tools, those four names you mention and Trout have comparable starts. Injuries derailed Mantle from being a SB threat and while Aaron was more of a complete player than history remembers, he didn’t start swiping bags until he was at about where Trout is currently in his career. Only Mays and Bonds are true comps (and Bonds was at lesser power pace at age 29. We know all why that was). He does need to stay healthy and add longevity to truly be considered the best, but to suggest that Trout’s all hype (if anything, he’s underappreciated) and that he’s just going to fade away from memory if he doesn’t stay on his current path is just plain ignorant.
freak – Baseball experts disagree with you.
“Every few years someone hypes up the next can’t miss for the best ever just to fade from memory.”
I don’t remember any other player in my lifetime (5-plus decades) who has been touted as the “best ever” besides Trout. If you do, name him to refresh my memory.
For by grace are we saved ??
I don’t see a team that needs him badly enough to trade top prospects for him, rather than waiting a year to spend money on him as a FA.
It seems more logical that Betts would have more value at the trade deadline, assuming Boston is out of the race.
A team that’s in it picks him up for 2 months of payroll (About $9M) and they give up a player for him then for a chance to go all the way.
That’s a win for Betts as no QO would prevail.
A win for Boston with a trade for presumably a quality young player.
And hopefully a win for the contending team that picks him up.
And you have to believe Betts will use any playoff games to showcase his talents.
That could all go in a paragraph.
Well then if a team that’s in the race doesn’t trade for Betts at the trade deadline then Boston gets a draft pick when Betts rejects the QO at season end.
Either way Boston is in the catbird’s seat and they unload a player that they don’t intend to risk that level of money on.
Price to the Angels or Dodgers would probably make sense.
Bloom doesn’t have a gun aimed at his head to come in under the “cap”. Henry/Warner definitely would like to see it happen, but not at the cost of dropping out of contention. I can easily see a landscape where the Sox let it ride for a year, and then just let attrition work its magic.
Happy New Year, all.
That’s not the plan because then they’ll be in the same spot next winter and not have a couple new prospects via trade, and also get under that repeater tax. Your scenario doesn’t look like the plan to me.
The Red Sox will take on more shot this year and hope the pitching stays healthy like it did in 2018. I don’t see that happening but I didn’t expect 2018. Assuming they are out of the race Betts gets dealt if they get a package that they like better than the compensation pick.
To start the turn around is if they fall apart like last year, they need Price to pitch lights out so they can deal his contract and maybe get something with him.
Right now it will be 2023 before they can clear some of these bad contracts. Pedroia is still on the books for $25 million the next two years and then he has the deferred payout.
Wrong.
The retool Starts Now. Payroll reduction Starts Now. There is absolutely zero chance the Red Sox run it back for 20/20. Zero chance.
Just because nothing happened in December doesn’t mean spring training won’t offer opportunities to get things done.
What makes Betts, Price, etc…. more desirable during spring training over now? Teams are filling holes, which means the demand is dropping each day.
As you say, the asking price goes down as time moves on. They’ll move the guys they want to but not get what they asked for in November + December.
I just don’t think a “run it back, same squad” in 2020 makes sense.
WRONG.
There is certainly not a zero chance.
There is a chance no one gives Boston the deal that they want for Betts.
In which case they wait for the trade deadline, assuming they’re out of it. If they’re in it then they keep Betts and QO him at season end.
If they still have Betts at the 2020 trade deadline, and somehow are “out of it”, then there is no point in keeping him as at that point Betts has gotten them no playoff slot in either 2019 nor 2020 so what’s the logic of keeping him when they already have one of the largest payrolls in all of baseball with Luxury Tax Penalties to boot and teams like Tampa and Oakland getting a playoff slot for 25% of the cost.
You’d have to be an idiot, if you’re an owner, to not see you’re not competitive and are wasting your money.
And if you don’t get what you want for Betts at the trade deadline you offer Betts a QO at season end and get a draft pick.
We’re basically in the same page, I’m just a putting a little more umph into it.
I say just trade him now and get the prospect that will assuredly be superior to the extra fourth rounder they will get if they don’t trade Betts and he walks.
Betts for Springer in a NY Minute. Springer, that’s an exciting possibility.
Price to Southern CA–Padres, Dodgers.
I’m a JBJ fan–give him a 3 yr deal for $18 M guaranteed + load it up with incentives. He is bound to put a solid couple of years together.
Note to Betts — 400 mil ? I dont think so — 10 yrs ? nope –Boston is in a pickle for sure — Betts better sign an extension with the Sox cuz I dont think he will get more than 5 yrs 100 mil out on the market
Betts is easily getting 200 plus
All depends on how he does in 2020.
This actually might be the worst post I have ever read. Mookie Betts has finished top 10 in MVP voting the last 4 years in a row, has won an MVP, come in 2nd (to Mike Trout), won 4 GG, 3 SS, racked up 42 WAR over essentially 5 seasons, and has a ring. Further, he’ll play the entirety of 2020 as a 27 year old, meaning he hits the open market at 28… He’s getting – at minimum – Rendon money. He’s a better player than Machado and Harper, $300M won’t even be difficult for him.
Bc they would rather dump bad contracts and bad players not MVPs. JBJ, Price, Eovaldi. They would be lucky to get rid of all 3 and just pay Betts.
They need to trade him. He is not sticking around. They did all they could to try and extend him. Get something for him while his value is high. Neither side is at fault for their positions. It’s business.
I keep reading “they could always trade Jackie and Price instead of Mookie”. They just can’t afford to trade off Jackie and a few months later lose Mookie, it’s too much to try to replace. People act like it’s a video game and that everyone can be replaced at will, doesn’t usually work that way. They need to make a decision and stick with it. Decide whether it’s Price that’s going or Mookie or Jackie, not both and definitely not all three.
If they could and I think they’re going to try, yes all three. Absolutely. Salary relief (JBJ, Price) plus prospects back (Mookie.).
That’s the thing, they CAN’T trade all 3 and they won’t. It isn’t a video game where you can just plug someone in, they don’t have replacements.
If they drop all three they can hire cheap replacements. Also, they can always get a cheap replacement in the package for Betts.
What replacements? Most free agents have signed already. You are way off the mark on this one and it will never happen.
Benny in center, sam travis in left, jdm and another butcher in right is fine for 2020.
Then 2021 it all begins again, provided they dumped price and mookie and Jackie Bradley $$$. Tax reset, so they will spend again.
They want to remain competitive, trading away 3 players like that isn’t remaining competitive.
@Willy
Red Sox are on record saying they are looking to shed salary to get under the competitive balance tax. This runs contrary to them “intending to be competitive.” They can move all 3 players. Sure, most of the notable free agents have signed but both Pillar and Maybin are available to replace them. This excludes other internal options who you say they don’t have (Sam Travis says hello). None of these are “video game scenarios.” In my opinion, you are off the mark here.
It is a video game scenario. Teams don’t EVER make that many moves. And Sam Travis is garbage and the Sox know it. If you’re going to be this ridiculous then stop responding. Good God.
He’s no Willie Mays.
I love Mookie but Trout is the best player in the game by far.
If Yellich has a great 2020 he’s up there as well.
Anyone who watches the game knows that Trout is the best player by far of his era, and maybe of all time. I saw Willy Mays play and Trout is a better all around player. I think todays players have better physical ability than in the past. Willy Mays was facing starters throwing in the high 80;s low 90s with 2 pitches. Today the best pitchers have a least 3 pitches and throw in the high 90s, and the relief pitching is better too! Trout and A-Rod are the 2 best players I have seen. Sandy Koufax on the other side was the best pitcher I have ever seen. He dominated top players, and most teams were happy to get a run off him. Check what he did to the Yankees in the World Series.
Yea why would they actively shop him? It’s not like they truly have a terrible team. Not a lot of pieces different from that great team a couple years ago. Should they be open to discussion? Sure… but actively trying to rid of him… na. I don’t buy the money issues for them. If it was a different market then I would understand more
Same size market as Atlanta.
How come the Braves don’t get free draft picks?
Bradford is a cheese ball talk show guy in Boston. Would hardly consider him to have reliable inside information.
They should trade Betts + Price +$36 mil to Padres
Pads would send Myers + Joey Lucchesi (pencil him right into #3 SP) + Morejon + Ornelas (OF A+ #11) and Cantillo (A+ SP)
Sox get some nice specs and a #3 .. Take Myers + $62 but dump -$136 mil .. Pads need a Vet stud SP and gamble on Price getting 20 starts a season and hopefully being healthy in postseason.. Betts (one year) perfect influx of star power and production to take Pads into postseason (its been a decade)..Sox can then go and get him back in FA if they want..But at least they get something this way..
price is no stud!
The Padres and everyone else are very aware of the Red Sox need to get under the luxury tax threshold. Because of that, they don’t have to offer the Sox that much in a trade for Mookie and Price.
The Red Sox would jump all over your proposal, but I don’t think it happens.
Gotta love some of these comments…”All DD does is win championships”…ya, and all Chris Carter does is score touchdowns…..
Some reality here. (1) The tax is computed on year-long payroll expenditure, not some opening day number.
(2) The season is organic, not static. The days of setting up 25 (26) players to use all year has gone the way of the Hula Hoop.
(3) The Sox are going to make HUGE money, no matter what they do.
(4) The pitching is in a gigantic state of flux. A healthy Price/Sale/Eovoldi and the landscape changes dramatically. Going to happen? Probably not. Two of the three? Somewhat more likely. One or none? Not likely, but certainly possible.
(5) The core lineup (you can even back Betts out of the equation) is still among the best in MLB.
They’ll look around. They’ll ask. But they’re not trading Mookie Betts for Jesus Sucre. They’ll see how things start to play out in April, maybe even May, and go from there. If you haven’t noticed, they’ve ADDED payroll so far. Or at least replaced the dollar value of their Free Agents.
Bloom’s a smart guy; he knows the systems and procedures you use to run the Rays have absolutely nothing to do with running the Red Sox. “Hey, fans, we won 96 games with a low payroll” ain’t gonna work for the Fenway Faithfull. If he pulls that, he’ll be gone in November. And he knows it.
Bloom will try and make the Sox more like the Dodgers model moving forward. They have a team that can win the division every year and has a strong minor league system. The only problem is they have the Yanks and Rays in their division, it will be hard to win every year. The Red Sox have the fouth best team in baseball on paper right now, so Bloom is just feeling teams out to see what he can get for Betts, Price and Bradley. They are his only moves right now. He may not do anything until the deadline or even next year. They can still win with what they have if everything falls into place. It’s a tough call!
How has he ADDED payroll?? He let Porcello go and signed his replacement at a savings of 15 million. He is also replacing Holt with a guy at 2B and saving there too. The rest are SCRUBS he brought in on M/L deals. How is he ADDING payroll??
I don’t understand all the Trout talk. Contracts go up over time.
I think a better comparison would be Anthony Rendon. He just signed a $35 mill a year deal (just under Trout’s average of $35.8m), is Betts comparable to Rendon?
Why were the Red Sox so foolish to make public their goal this year to get under the luxury tax threshold ? That statement killed any leverage they may have had in any trade talks. I really can’t believe they were that stupid to blab out that information.
Agreed Steve Dolan. Maybe the answer lies with the new GM looking to take the “Rays Way” to Boston; Ivy League grad, analytical genius, zero World Series titles or dynasties to show for. Seeing unnecessary revelations and spin in Toronto and we’ve watched with other GMs. That has landed in Boston and you are seeing it from the front row. These guys should be smarter than to lose their leverage in offseason negotiations.
Definitely disagree Steve Dolan.
You don’t see the difference in the way they presented it? He said “we’d like to, in other words all our guys are available. But we don’t have to.” Huge difference.
Plus the media and fans want the new guy to address the plan going forward. Common media relations. He has to say something can’t keep everything close to the vest…. have to answer questions.
Definitely didn’t handcuff himself he doesn’t have to do anything that won’t help the team out.
Great point Steve
Great point Steve. Thought the same thing when they said it.
Tipping your hand is foolish.
Maybe they thought they could smoke Mookie out of the woodwork to sign a LT deal for less money?
Maybe John Henry was just frustrated having the highest payroll in all of baseball and nothing to show for it?
You’re guess is as good as mine.
They cannot clear his contract and get a nice return. They either clear his contract and take back middling prospects or eat some money and get good prospects. No team is going to pay Mookie 30M for one year and give up 20-25M worth of prospects to do it. Nobody is worth that much.
Mookie is definitely worth something to a contender at the trade deadline.
The only questions are if Boston will be “in it” and he gets a QO after 2020 or if they trade him before that for chump change before of after the deadline or if they work something out with Mookie (Unlikely)
You can file this one in the obvious drawer. You don’t discount a star/former mvp. Teams come to you not the other way around.