FEBRUARY 26: Teheran indicated he doesn’t see much cause for concern; in fact, he’s hoping to be ready to get back on the mound by Sunday or Monday, Fletcher tweets.
FEBRUARY 25: Angels right-hander Julio Teheran won’t make his scheduled start Wednesday because of left hamstring tightness, Jeff Fletcher of the Orange County Register was among those to report. Fortunately for the Angels and Teheran, an MRI came back negative.
Teheran appears to be OK, but this is still a situation worth monitoring for an Angels club that has dealt with an abundance of adversity in its rotation over the past couple years. Injuries have been a major problem of late for the club, evidenced in part by the fact that no Angel even threw 100 innings last season. Conversely, a lack of durability hasn’t been a problem for Teheran, whom the Angels signed to a one-year, $9MM contract in free agency.
The 29-year-old Teheran was a member of the Braves from 2011-19, a span in which he amassed 170-plus innings in seven seasons. Teheran didn’t turn into the front-line type of starter the Braves thought they had toward the beginning of his career, but he has nonetheless managed decent overall numbers. Most recently, he piled up 174 2/3 frames of 3.81 ERA/4.66 FIP ball with 8.35 K/9 and 4.28 BB/9 last year. The FIP doesn’t look appealing, but that particular statistic has never been bullish on Teheran, who has consistently found a way to outdo it in the ERA department. Teheran’s the owner of a lifetime 3.67 ERA – a number the Angels would surely sign up for in 2020. He’ll first have to get over this injury, though.
and he’ll be on the IL by June. LAA badly needs a new health crew.
He hasn’t thrown less than 170 innings since he broke in and he’s gong to be on the DL by June?
It’s tightness!!!… Big whoop.
may just be tightness, but with this team that can evolve into a serious issue real quick.
Hamstrings can turn into a nagging thing for any player regardless of history. And using past performance isn’t necessarily a way of predicting future durability either.
Just give him some opioids
Oh what a surprise. An Astros fan being obnoxious and misinformed.
Take the L bro, stop always trolling the boards. Your team cant hack it.
This comment needs to be taken down. You sir are a low life pos. That man is dead and he’s very far from alone in suffering that fate from opioid pain killers or heroin. Skaggs may ultimately be responsible for his own choices but the statistics are staggering. One in four prescribed become addicted to them. That’s crazy. Maybe you should talk with family members of those that died from an overdose and hear their story before you post something so insanely ignorant
I think Darkside is a Phillies fan? Let me know if I’m wrong, Darkside.
In any event, I’m a Braves fan and I can tell you after years of watching Teheran, you can’t count on two things:
1. He is not injury prone. In fact he is one of the most consistently healthy pitchers in baseball.
2. Don’t panic when you see his peripherals..he outperforms them just about every year.
His hamstring issue isnt even worth a footnote. Teheran will be fine.
*you CAN count on..
Pretty sure that Astros fan comment was for the horribly tasteless, off base remark not Dark Side who is a decent human being.
Ya, I just looked again and realized you’re right, Halos.
Yeah he’s one of those rare guys that always outperforms his peripherals… pretty handedly I might add. I think he’s really someone who seems to get trashed a lot, or at least not respected all that much by writers and fans when in reality he’s actually been one of the most consistent and good SPs over the past several seasons. I mean even the Braves wound up ‘giving up on him’ despite the fact that he’s essentially a lock to have a sub 4.00 ERA and start 30 games a year. Most guys who post 3.50-3.70 ERAs year in year out are being talked about like their stars. Yet for some reason Teheran seems to get talked about like he’s a below average innings eater. Idk maybe I’m missing something but if you ask me – assuming this injury is just a minor setback – I think the Angels really got a potential bargain gem here. No, I don’t think he’s going to all of a sudden improve and become some lights out ace. But 15+ wins and a sub 3.50 ERA are definitely within reason. And at 1 year $9M… that sounds like a bargain to me.
You’re absolutely right, Jeff. I found myself defending him a lot amongst my fellow Braves fans. It would drive me crazy because to many of us didn’t acknowledge that we had a valuable starter in Teheran. A pitcher who gives you 30+ starts and over 170 IP while typically posting an ERA bellow 4 is worth something.
The people that wanted him gone would point to his peripherals every year and every year said next season his luck would level off but every year he would still outperform his metrics.
I’m hoping that trend of out performing his peripherals continues.
Full agreement with salarycap on Teheran. Other things about him:
He’s streaky. Very streaky. He will pitch almost like an ace for a month, and then spend the next month throwing batting practice. You can never predict it, and that probably plays a big role in why AA initially left him off two consecutive playoff rosters.
His velo has been declining for unknown reasons. He came up throwing mid 90s, and now you’ll find him hovering anywhere near the upper 80s to the very low 90s on any given night.
Decent movement, but have no idea what happened to his command. It was never top notch but it also used to be better than recent memory.
He used to be known for having a killer changeup, but for whatever reason that pitch suddenly regressed a lot and is used nowhere near as much now because it tends to get teed off on at times.
Teherans innings will routinely scare you, but somehow he manages to get out of them. This is the biggest thing. He gives up a lotta homers and isn’t afraid to walk people (he admits this his self), so his blow ups tend to happen in one or two innings. He tends to get a lot of runners on base though and then manages to escape… I don’t know how he does it really, and it’s probably a huge reason why his peripherals have never liked him, but it’s how he is and like I said, it will give you anxiety. Tends to nibble a ton would good hitters.
Teheran is ballsy and not afraid to take up for his teammates. He is a little bulldog up there.
He seemingly never gets injured.
His swing looks awful, but he’s actually not bad with the bat for a pitcher… Although I know he’s in the AL now so it’s not really an issue, he won’t be a complete black hole in the lineup in interleague games.
Teheran is very polarizing. He’s underappreciated for sure, but he is not All Star quality by any means and most people either love him or hate him. He’s a solid #5 starter, and when he’s hot he can help carry a rotation for a few weeks…you just never know if he’s gonna get hot or not because there’s no in between.
He is certainly an enigma but a great teammate. He won’t be an ace or anything by any means, but most of y’all will probably like having him. I was sad to see him go, but we probably do have better or comparable options for much closer to league minimum.
Nice write up. Have a few bones of contention though.
Teheran has a reptutation for allowing a lot of home runs. He doesnt. His HR9 for the last two years is 1.3 which was very league average in 2018 and in 2019 it actually goes down to 1.1 which is better than average, especially for how 2019 went for most pitchers.
Also, when you look at his production, he is a solid no.3 pitcher. Teheran has plenty of flaws but at the end of the day, what does his production equal to? Consistently posting ERA’s under 4 while soaking up over 170 innings is bettet than a no.5 spot.
I don’t know that the Braves have enough better options to have let him go. I find that when Braves fans feel this way its because they are only thinking of his ability to prevent runs which sure looks really similar to Keuchel in 2019 and Hamels who we brought on for 2020. But its more difficult replace the innings he soaks up. Starters typically have the durability of a snow flake in the Atacama Desert. Soroka in 2018, Folty in 2019 and Hamels now. Hamels is even going to miss his forst 3 or 4 starts. You know who isn’t going to have that problem? Teheran.
His walks are high and I’m hoping that will be something he can bring down.
no, the fact that Ive seen Teheran to know he *should* be healthy the whole year is what will make it so redicious when he isnt. pitchers go too LAA and immediately fall appart. i dont even know if Teheran will survive.
Trade Julio to the Yankees for Andujar or Frazier. They need pitching now.
Do some research, then come back and delete this ignorant comment. I’ve watched him since the Minors and the guy eats innings like cereal. No DL stints…
Upon reading this Teheran walked the bases loaded
Uh oh this is surely going to lead to TJ surgery
The one thing Julio has ever been above average at over his career has been staying healthy. So thats not a great sign.
I wish him the best though and I’m rooting for him. I think if hes highly motivated hes got more in the tank. Hes a super laid back dude. Changing teams, leagues, and entering free agency again after this year might light a fire in him to improve.
Other than in 2017, Teheran has had a better than league average ERA and IP in every full season in the majors from 2013 – 2019.. In 2017 he was exactly average.
Last season he had a 3.81 ERA when the league average for starters was a 4.33 ERA. His ERA ranked 15th in the NL and 25th in MLB..
Every season he gets the results of a #2 starter. (A #3 starter out of 5 is league average.) .
But then you are the guru, so who am I to post facts that disagree with your overwhelmingly superior knowledge?
Whenever you grow up and learn what a fip is, come back and apologize for making me read that pathetc post. If he was good he wouldn’t sign 9$ one year deals as a 20 something.
My god your post cringy.
This is what happens when people who only play fantasy baseball and have never watched a guy pitch try to act like googling ERA is just as good as actually knowing what you are talking about.
oooof
I bet he was above league average at sacrifice bunt % or something and you”re gonna come back with that instead of understanding this post though, arent ya?
lol, chill guru boy. fip is imperfect too. The fact that fip exists is testament to the evolution of better statistics, so the idea that you have infallible info is wrong and the confidence paired with it is laughable.
His ERA+ which is an even better stat considering it normalizes his value against all other people at his postion has been >100 (except one season at 97). So it can defintionally be argued that he has been anywhere from above average to pretty good (he was 20% better than average last year).
So, in conclusion, you’re a casual fan who doesnt seem to appreciate the nuance of advanced statistics and the importance of normalization and weighted stats when dealing with a large sample size.
You also might want to apologize, you’re also unpleasant.
Lol you two, why are y’all taking it so personal??
Written meme “are you not entertained?”
Hey bkbk, how about you look at Teherans ERA and FIP for ths last 5 seasons and see if you notice a trend. See how in every one of those years his ERA beats his FIP? Sabremetrics are a tool intended to help us understand player production but it shouldn’t replace your brain.
I love and use a players peripherals to guess at production also but when a player consistently beats there peripherals for that long at some point you have to decide that the normal rule book isn’t doing its job with this player.
SalaryCapMyth
Many people don’t know how to look peripherals. FIP and XFIP, don’t measure quality of contact. When a pitcher throws five pitches at any time at any count, the quality of contact is not going to be the same.
They are great at spotting anomalies within a pitchers career, but they do not work for all pitchers.
For example, there are some fly ball pitches that keep the ball in the park.. Those things never worked for knuckle ball pitchers.
If they start squaring up Teheran more frequently, his FIP and XFIP will not change but his ERA will.
Another comment trafficking in generalities without citing anything specific. Why comment at all if you’re not going to have a clear point as far as what you’re refuting?
Bkbkbk… who are you commenting to?
Ultimately FIP and xFIP measure run prevention just as ERA does, right? If what you think is right, that if they square up on him more his ERA will go up, then why hasnt that happened? He hasnt outproduced his peripherals just last year but every year except his rookie season.
@ bkbk. Not sure if you are talking to me but my argument with you was very specific. Look at his last 5 years and compare his ERA to his FIP and even other peripherals. You will see that his actual run prevention is better every time. If a stat we should be able to use to indicate coming regression fails every time, we need to consider the possibility that we are wrong about that stat in regards to a specific player. You don’t have to take my word for it. Just look for yourself.
Salary Cap,
FIP and XFIP is based on normalized contact. A ground ball is a ground ball, a fly ball is a fly ball. A lazy fly ball is one that is indistinguishable from one that is ripped.
The more a pitcher deviates from hard and soft contact, the less valuable his FIP and XFIP.
Most pitches, do not deviate that far from the norm. Teheran does. If Teheran degree of contact moves towards the norm, his ERA should go up.
Halo. I think we both understand FIP and xFIP are deeply influenced by hard contact. A smoked ground ball tends to find holes while another doesnt.
But you speak of Teheran’s degree of contact increasing and so will his ERA. I am pretty sure when you say degree you mean hard hit rate. This is similar to BABIP in that if you are only hitting dribblers on the ground than your .200 BABIP is easily explainable. So now that we both know we both understand what the stats we are debating about, what I think is important to know in this is that those peripherals lead people to believe he will regress..but he never does.
There isnt reason to believe his hard hit rate is going to increase based on his peripherals. He seems to have a legitemate skill at managing hard contact which.
Myth. I think we understand each other. 🙂
Fangraphs did a great article on him. He is one of the few pitches that will throw any pitch at any time. When he gets behind, you can’t guess. It’s why he doesn’t get hit hard.
Bottom line, a batter can’t sit on a pitch.
Yep….Angels sign a highly reliable guy…..and he misses his first ST start.
Have they not cleaned house in their training staff in awhile? It seems like they are due to me but I dont follow the AL closely.
Often times when a team mysteriously cant keep their guys healthy for a period of a few years it ends up being a training staff that was in over its head (especially in the NBA). Only after claiming bad luck over, and over stops being accepted as an excuse though.
I was at a benefit dinner last November and the same head trainer who was there for Chuck Finley is still there.
One thing is for sure, pitchers are having TJ surgeries and landing on the DL more than ever. I remember when your 4th and 5th starters were good for 30+ starts and 200 innings with a couple of complete games, now starting pitchers are throwing 160-180 IP, and that’s considered durable? I think the problem has been “babying” pitchers with 90-100 pitch counts and some even removed after 5 innings.
Not necessarily wrong and it is what Nolan Ryan has posited on occasion. But I think it may be a combination of that in conjunction with overzealous parents that think their kid is “the one” and having them throw sliders at 10 years old too. I think you’ll notice a direct correlation with younger breaking ball pitchers and TJS.
Nolan threw, what, 700 innings of 100 mph heat for 22 years straight, or some such ridiculousness? Man was a straight up beast on the mound.
There is no correlation between breaking balls and TJ surgery. There is a direct correlation to velocity and TJ surgery. Too many kids throwing too much and too hard. We never had travel ball when I was a kid. These kids today play all year round.
You are on a not knowing what you are talking about roll tonight, arent ya?
LoL
I respectfully disagree. Incorrect torque in elbows, particularly those that are still in the growth process, can indeed create elbow/tendon/ligament issues. People have been throwing hard, a lot forever. If velocity & use were the issues, how could so many pitchers over the decades throw 15 innings of baseball without needing TJS?
It is so much more prevalent now because so many kids are competing like it’s the majors at 12. It’s not travel baseball. It’s the purpose behind travel baseball.
DUDE, STOP!
Your comment is just some unqualified opinion that name drops league initials. A string of injuries can be a host of things and is “most often” chance. Also, comparing an NBA staff to an MLB staff is like saying like a chef and a baker are the same thing.
You’re comments are bad and you should feel bad.
this isnt just a bunch of random events. pitchers arrive in LA and immediately get hurt, and most of their incumbents are now injury prone. you cant tell me Heaney, Skaggs, (RIP) Pena, Tropeano, Meyer, (whose career might have been completely killed by that staff) and more all became injury magnets by chance. eventually correlation does equal causation.
Darkside, who are you thinking of?
CJ Wilson comes to mind. But other than that, I can’t think of a pitcher coming to Anaheim after three healthy seasons and then getting hurt.
Well, first of all….no….correlation doesn’t equal causation.
But, it sure seems like the Angels are doing something wrong. Does anyone know of any stats that track injuries by team? I’d like to know for sure if the Angels really are more injury prone than other teams and, if so, how exactly that breaks down.
Sealbeach Comber
Name the last young pitcher the A’s have developed?
How about the Rangers?
Now the Mariners?
And finally, the Astros.
Look how many young pitchers these teams have brought up that suffered major injuries.
I guess the Angels biggest difference is they haven’t had a pitcher pitch a full season since Rickey Nolasco.
Yeah, I’d like to see some stats (beyond just IR time) that could help see if there really is something fundamentally different with the Angels.
What? Meyer, Heaney and Skaggs all had serious injury histories (Should, elbow and TJ) before arriving with the team. If you come at it from an Occums Razor perspective its probably that pitchers with arm injuries are likely to have more down the line.
bkbkbkbk
You mean young pitchers suffering serious injuries? You mean the Angels are the only team?
The A’s have three of them on their staff this year. I can’t remember the last young pitcher the A’s developed, yet no one seems to have an issue with four young pitchers, three coming off serious injuries and one coming off a PED suspension.
Developing young pitchers is tough.
Who are the last young pitchers the A’s, Rangers, Astros or Mariners developed?
How many freaking times do these have to happen to the Angels before they sign more pitchers?! It is so frustrating time after time when there is a glaring need for more/better pitchers and they just try to patch it up and end up signing hitters.
Ugh!!
By my count, they’ve acquired 12 pitchers this off season. That’s a big number in my opinion.
Not just the numbers!!
Lol wrong! We had Trevor Cahill our true ace go over 100 innings
True. Although, Cahill was so awful that he was removed from the rotation.
It’s just tightness. On the good side it could be fixed by stretching and taking a few day break, on the bad side it could be torn and take 3 months to heal and recuperate. Hopefully it will be the former, because I’m starting to feel sorry for the Angels pitching. But at this point I just want Mickey Callaway to get the most out of his pitchers, especially Andrew Heaney.
You forgot that although it’s tightness, sometimes it’s those more minor but nagging injuries that persist throughout the season to hamper performance and durability.
I might be mistaken, but was a nagging injury what lead Johnny Cueto to getting Tommy John last year? Good point @Mick1956.
I thought nagging injuries led to Tammy Jane surgery. Take my wife…please.
Considering the MRI was normal, it’s obviously not torn…
Lol, yeah I phrased that wrong. I meant to say “it could tear” not “it is torn”. Meaning if he aggravates it any worse.
Yeah…”phrased that wrong..”. That’s the ticket!
How do you change the iPhone app to dark mode? I did the update.
“Hello, Yankees, the Angels are on line one…”
“What… AGAIN?!?!?”
Angels don’t need any starters that are healthy from the Yankees other than Cole,
Now the Angels are really screwed.
If the Angels don’t want injured Vets all the time, they need to build with the farm system.
What farm system, no pitchers in angel AAA system.
I guess they should go back to drinking beer and smoking cigars after every game because all this exercise nonsense is killing rotations and lineups! Dang, it’s a downright shame that all these guys are so banged up they can’t play ball.
Bring in the kegs and the smokes, training commences upon arrival …
PREDICTION: “Angels sign David Ayres to MiLB contract as insurance against Teheran injury”
Isn’t that Tom Cruises character in Vanilla Sky?
We really are snake bit when it comes to pitcher health. Hopefully this is just short term and he will be ready opening day.
angel needs 8 ML pitchers just look at Dodgers. Two pitchers that would be Angel #1 and 2 will start the season at AAA.
Hope it was another clubs med staff determining the MRI was clean. Ours have a tendency to say that regardless the severity
Sign with the Angels—> get injured—> Tommy John surgery on the horizon (kind of joking).
Chase, who are these pitchers you are talking about?
A lot of people here talking up Teheran, and he’s earned it with his performance. It’s good to have optimism.
I’ll kindly point toward Teheran’s record in Interleague games and how he’s been thrashed by American League teams in his career. Pitching in the friendly NL East where hitting has been frowned upon in some seasons is much different than the AL with a DH. Add his peripherals (you care about that more than I), and you have a recipe for potential disaster.
Well, he’s pitched well against the Rangers and A’s. He’s never faced the Astros, and I’m not worried about his six innings against the Ms.
ERA in Texas zero.
ERA in Oakland 2.84
ERA in Safeco 9
There are lies, damn lies and statistics. I’d put this one under statistics.
You do know Teheran and the Angels will have to face teams in the East and Central, right? The 8 teams Teheran has the worst career ERA (in road games) all happen to be from the American League.
There are lies and there is straight up neglect. I’ll put you comment in the latter department.
Of course. But how seriously do I take his 11.25 ERA in Camden? Do I take it as seriously as his zero ERA in Tropicana Field?
I actually don’t think it’s all that much of a factor. Sure the DH makes a difference, but if he can have an ERA under 4.5 and pitch the innings everyone thinks he’s going to pitch, he’s going to win a lot of games.
For a back of the rotation starter, I’ll take that in a heartbeat.
By the way, just to add, I would expect his worst parks to be the parks where he only has a a few innings. And if you are smart, and I know you are, you understand why. Small sample size.
His two best parks are AL parks.
If you break down his catchers, his best ERA.. and his worst ERA comes with catchers he’s thrown very few innings to.
Your original argument was a much smaller sample size than mine.
Did he face Baltimore before 2018? Did he face Tampa before 2018? Those numbers would make sense given the strength of those teams back then. Which Texas team did he face?
His home numbers in Atlanta at SunTrust weren’t great. Much better at Turner Field as it was a pitcher-friendly park. Coincidence? Maybe. Bottom line, expect him to take a step back being in the AL. If he doesn’t, great. But I wouldn’t bet on him getting away with as much as he has in the NL.
I expect his ERA to be more in line with the leagues. He’s not going to have a 3.67 ERA.
He has a lifetime ERA+ of 110. I wouldn’t expect it to be worse than 105 or greater than 115. Which would mean a higher ERA. I don’t expect him to fall apart simply by going to the American League. In a fantasy league, he’s more valuable pitching in the NL, but all pitchers are.
Since he is going in a higher runs scored environment. I would expect him to get more run support. And I would expect him to allow more runs.
.
“Over 162 games, even tough guys get strains…sore arms…muscle pulls” – Lou Brown
Sorry Charlie I gotta call you back I got a guy on the other line about some whitewalls.
Man, what a bunch of paranoid people on this board. The guy has a slight hamstring pull and hopes to take the mound by Sunday. His health is fine; he just either didn’t stretch out enough or got a little dehydrated in the warm weather. Relax everyone, he’ll be perfectly fine. This is one of the most common injuries in all of baseball. Minor ones take 2-3 days to subside.
We Angels fans have earned the right to Paranoid outbursts following ANY Angel pitcher injury, no matter how slight.
I think fans of teams that experience a multitude of injuries assume the worst when an article is written about it, because teams do tend to minimize it, ie, forearm tightness (needs TJS), and because injuries seem to inevitably lead to unintended consequences, like during rehab he injures something else, or damages his hamstring more – take relatively healthy Josh Donaldson’s “calf strain” as an illustration. Bad examples maybe but you get the point. Look at the Yankees – seems a day doesn’t go by without someone going down.