DECEMBER 21, 4:35PM: Teheran’s deal with the Angels is now official, reports Jeff Fletcher of the Orange County Register.
DECEMBER 19: The Angels and right-hander Julio Teheran have agreed to a one-year contract, ESPN.com’s Jeff Passan reports (Twitter link). Teheran will earn $9MM in the deal, The Athletic’s Ken Rosenthal (via Twitter) reports. Teheran is represented by the Wasserman agency.
After spending his first nine seasons in Atlanta, Teheran will now head west to join what the Angels hope will be a greatly improved pitching staff. Los Angeles has been linked to numerous top free agent starters, though their pitching acquisitions have thus far been more modest, between signing Teheran and trading four minor league pitchers to the Orioles for Dylan Bundy. While putting Teheran and Bundy behind Shohei Ohtani still represents an upgrade for the Halos, one suspects the Angels will still look to add a topline arm rather than count on Ohtani to be an ace in his first season back from Tommy John surgery.
Given the amount of pitching injuries the Angels have faced in recent years, Teheran’s durability is a big plus. The righty has averaged 191 innings per season from 2013-19, with only two minimal injured list stints (for a thumb contusion and a lat strain) in that span. While Teheran has two All-Star appearances to his name and looked for a time like he could become the ace of the Braves’ staff, his last three seasons have been more modest.
From 2017-19, Teheran has 3.3 total fWAR, a 4.09 ERA, 7.9 K/9, and 1.99 K/BB rate over 538 2/3 frames. While he posted a 3.81 ERA in 2019, ERA predictors like FIP (4.66), xFIP (5.26), and SIERA (5.11) painted a much more dire picture of Teheran’s 2019 performance. He also posted a career-high 39.1% hard-hit ball rate, and he finished in the bottom tenth percentile of all qualified pitchers in fastball velocity, with only a 89.7mph average on his heater. (In more positive Statcast news, Teheran had above-average fastball spin and finished in the 84th percentile in terms of curveball spin.)
Given these less-than-impressive advanced metrics, it wasn’t entirely surprising that the Braves chose to buy out the final year of Teheran’s contract for $1MM rather than pay him a $12MM salary for 2020. (Teheran was playing on a six-year, $32.4MM extension signed prior to the 2014 season.) The one-year guarantee from L.A. was also less than the two-year, $18MM MLBTR projected for him at the outset of the offseason. The Teheran signing looks somewhat akin to the short-term signings of Matt Harvey and Trevor Cahill that Angels GM Billy Eppler orchestrated last winter, though obviously Eppler will be hoping for much more than the near-minimal return Harvey and Cahill brought to the 2019 Angels.
With Teheran now in the fold, the Angels have a projected luxury tax payroll of just over $185.5MM, as per Roster Resource’s Jason Martinez. There’s still plenty of daylight between the Angels (who have never paid a tax penalty) and the $208MM luxury tax threshold, so Los Angeles has room to still make more additions to the pitching staff or the roster as a whole.
Photo courtesy of USA Today Sports Images
Ok not cole but a vet who knows the art of pitching
Or a tomato can with a 5.26 xFIP. Depends what kind of crack you smoke I guess
Yeah he didn’t have a great year but he’s had a couple of really good years in the past it’s not that bad of a signing
It’s a terrible signing just stop.
It’s not Gerrit Cole, but it’s 180-190 innings of 3.6.-3.90 ERA starter for $9 million on a one year deal. Last season his 119 ERA+ says Teheran was 19% better than league average or a #2-#3 starter. You don’t have much baseball knowledge if you think it’s a terrible signing.
Lots and lots of walks.
But not exactly a lot of hits.
Why terrible? It’s just a 1/9 contract. If it doesn’t work out, it’s no big deal. Worth a shot
There is literally zero chance he has an ERA under 4. Zero. He was incredibly lucky last year and moving to the AL will hurt more.
well when you throw 89-90 mph you need to pitch around certain guys. but based on his numbers he seems to be good standing runners and pitching out of trouble.
Perfect signing if your looking to patch together a rotation, low cost little damage , diamond in rough prob not.
i was hoping the brewers were going to take a chance on him. Good luck!
And dingers
That’s a really ignorant comment. He has a career ERA of 3.67 and has posted an ERA below 4.00 5 out of his full 7 seasons in the MLB – how could you possibly say he has a 0% chance of doing it again? I understand his secondary numbers indicated his ERA outperformed his actual pitching last season but still — his career ERA is 3.67 so there’s no way that he has a 0% chance of posting an ERA below 4.00 next season.
Maybe because he has a career 3.03 home ERA and a career 4.81 away ERA, and is leaving a pitchers division and pitchers park for a strong offensive division and a neutral park
^^^Statcast lover Exhibit A. It’s neat that Statcast hates Teheran and inexplicably loves scrubs like Grichuk, Piscotty, Marcell Ozuna, Smoak, etc. (I can’t think of pitchers advanced metrics beat off to off of the top of my head but same concept) but has hated Teheran for years. At some point, Teheran’s repeated ability to out-perform advanced metrics is a repeatable skill and not sheer luck.
A 30 HR bat like Ozuna is a scrub? Smoak had a good year recently too. You don’t understand modern statistics so whining about those who do. It’s not 1888 anymore grandpa.
Good luck repeated does not become a skill. Its like when you’re blowing a soap bubble. It can continue to get bigger longer than you think, but it’s still going to pop. Especially in the AL West.
@ beisbolista
Look at fangraphs page on Teheran again and look at his entire career stats for ERA, FIP and xFIP and tell me which years say he isnt as good as his ERA implies. You will see that ALL of them say that. This shouldn’t be if sabremetrics is completely accurate. Teheran is one of those oddities that sabremetrics can’t figure out.
Ozuna. 107 OPS+ and 2.2 WAR. His bat was 7% better than league average and his overall play as measured by WAR was 8.4% under league average.
Teheran 119 ERA+ and a 2.7 WAR. He was 19% better than league average in ERA+ and 12.5% better in WAR.
So who is the scrub? Time for you to learn about modern statistics.
He was criticizing someone who uses modern stats while having no understanding how they work, that a guy having a bad xyz stat does not necessarily mean that he cannot and has not and will not limit runs effectively.
Analogy to the scenario in question: a guy buys a new car every year. The guy, who happens to be a millionaire, buys a Honda/Toyota every year for ten years. Modern car-buying stats experts proclaim the next car be buys will almost certainly be a luxury car because stats show that millionaires buy luxury cars 64% of the time and this guy is bound to come back to the norm. Guess what, these amateur stat experts are goofballs who have no idea how to use their stats.
Smoak was awful last year and Ozuna wasn’t great. His defense was garbage.
Speaking of not knowing how to use stats…
FIP is a mathematical equation. Anyone trying to discredit it’s validity for some outliers is an idiot also.
FIP is not perfect and will not hold in every case. This is why human beings have brains and other metrics to look at. You don’t simply buy a stock because it has one favorable ratio. FIP doesn’t take into account the quality of contact that is put into play. For pitchers who have a lot of soft-medium baseballs put into play; it’s not uncommon for FIP to underestimate their performance.
Teheran’s xWOBA sits around .320 on most years. Which is comparable to other back end starters. Teheran is okay. There’s a reason he Only got a year and 9 million dollars. There’s no upside for further progression and if the hard contact he gives up increases a little bit; he’ll be much worse. And that FIP number won’t look so out of whack.
Anyone who uses FIP and xFIP for a pitcher with seven years in the big leagues and who has always been under his FIP and xFIP is the idiot.
We have almost 15 hundred innings.
Teheran has a lifetime ERA of a lifetime ERA of 3.67. A FIP of 4.23 and an xFIP of 4.37. No one with a clue would evaluate him looking at his FIP and xFIP.
Well Mac daddy if you read my statement—I referred to people trying to discredit FIP as a valid statistic altogether, using an outlier like a Teheran.
Every stat has some value, but it doesn’t appear as if FIP and xFIP have much surface value when evaluating Teheran.
And some pitchers just do a better job of keeping the ball in the park when a batter hits the ball in the air. I’ve never been a fan of xFIP as a surface stat. It takes too much digging to find out if it adds value, and by the time I dig, I have better information.
Other than the obvious, such as Teheran always out performs those numbers, I haven’t done any digging.
Bottom line, a quick look at Teheran shows those numbers are meaningless when it comes to evaluating Teheran.
Yes, Teheran has consistently outperformed his advanced metrics year in and year out, in terms of actual runs allowed.
Advanced metrics just do not like Teheran’s approach. He does not strike out alot of guys, he pitches to contact, and he is not afraid to pitch over the heart of the zone, which will typically le as d to long flyouts or hard hit outs in general.
That is just the way Teheran pitches, he relies on his spin rates to generate good movement on his pitches, sequencing, and he relies heavily on pitching to the positioning of his defense. Advanced metrics are NEVER going to paint Teheran is a favorable light because of this, BUT it does not mean Teheran is a bad pitcher.
If you want a reliable guy that will consistently go out every fifth day and give your team a chance to win, then Teheran is a pitcher you want in your rotation. It will never be pretty, but he gets the job done when it counts. About once out of every seven or eight starts his FB will come out flat, or he won’t be able to locate it, which will lead to a dud of a start; HOWEVER, in every other start he will give you 6 innings of 3-4H, 2-3R, 2-3BB, and 3-5K…
For a contender, he is your perfect #4-#5 starter. Not someone you want starting a playoff game, but he is someone that will help get your team to the playoffs by winning games..
Well said. Braves fans who’ve seen him for the better part of 8 years know more about this guy than the generic stat line. The only consistent thing about Julio is that he’s surprising. Been through long stretches (including last year) where teams struggled to plate a run off the guy, but he never looked “dominant”. Then he’d inevitably have a couple starts without decent stuff or location & get hammered. Overall though, he shows up & puts your team in a position to win.
For all the folks who are citing his ugly peripheral metrics despite decent results – you dont “get lucky” consistently for almost a decade…
@SalaryCapMyth The years when his ERA did not outperform his peripherals were the years when he did not perform in a division and home ballpark that do not strongly favor pitchers. Oh wait he’s been in a favorable division and ballpark his whole career so far. The sabermetrics don’t lie– he’s not in for a good time in the AL West
Well said — all of the people out here ripping him based on his “advanced metrics” stats and acting like they know more than everyone else because we’re only using ERA and other “outdated” statistics need to realize that sometimes there are players who outperform their ‘advanced metrics’ and its not just a fluke. There are plenty of P who consistently have low OPBA and people say “oh that will regress back to the mean and then that pitcher will be useless next year” but some guys just actually do induce a lower OPBA and focusing just on those ‘advanced metrics’ is actually misleading and wrong. Yet because they’re the “new” and “most advanced” thing people are referencing them as if they’re unfallable and MUST be right.
Look at his career home/away splits. 3.03 ERA at home and 4.81 on the road. Pitchers division and pitchers park are the clear explanation for why he has “consistently outperformed advanced metrics.” Sabermetrics cannot be taken in isolation. Context helps to explain them. And everything points to trouble in the AL West for Teheran now that he is losing his crutches.
Thanks @Salarycapmyth for the post!
At 50, I am still rooted in old school stats, but have warmed up and understood, mostly, sabermetrics. So when I see a player like Teheran “outperform his peripherals” I smile (smirk..?)
Your failure to understand and apply sabermetrics doesn’t undermine their accuracy when correctly applied.
Teheran is not an ace by any means but he’s a much better option than the Angels have had recently…
Teheran is 180-190 IP of a 10-20% better than league average starter. What we have missed the most is starters that can go stay healthy and eat innings. Teheran does that. He will be our #3 starter right now.
Ohtani, Heaney, Teheran, Canning, Bundy as of today. With Ohtani coming off TJ surgery and Heaney hurt so often, having 2 guys that we can count on taking the ball every 5th day is fantastic.
And his health!
Biggest thing is that he is not injury prone. He has 30+ starts 7 years in a row. I know he is not an ace, but he is better than any one on the current staff other than Ohtani. I wished we signed him 2 years rather than 1. If he can put up a decent ERA, this offense should be able to score him some runs. I could see him winning 15 games.
As a braves fan- Teheran is a good guy to have at the back of your rotation. He’ll be mostly ok and will have some clunkers but he still has the ability to dominate on some nights with command and sinking action.
It’s a good signing.
Hahahaha I agree. Good luck with Teheran- the guy was horrible in ATL. He baaaaarely did decent in the middle of last year, but quite honestly, I hated him in ATL. He always gave him millions of HR’s.
Every time you post its a a contender for the stupidest comment of the thread. Not one Angels starter had an ERA, ERA +, or WAR better than Teheran. None. We got better today.
19% better than league average last season. 10% better than league average as a Brave. 15% better than league average in HR/9 How is that terrible?
Why so negative? This is a very plausible comment. Why couldn’t you have left this without the last sentence?
Braveninersnation, just stop. He was not “horrible”, he was solidly mediocre. The numbers don’t lie.
Great signing for the Angels; I was all for it given the Lux Tax circumstances.
Durable and dependable.
How can you knock it considering the present staff and what’s left on the market?
Add Dallas K. and your much improved; everything is relative and it buys you a year until some more money goes off the books.
Teheran 3.67 ERA, 4.23 FIP, 4.37 xFIP who averages 191 IP per season.
In the NL. He has to rely on control considering his velo has diminished. He’ll be traded or outright released when he starts getting blasted in the AL. He won’t see anywhere near 170+ip
Koamalu is going to be ridiculously amped up for anything the Angels do. They could go sign a doorknob and he’d tell you it was the whole door.
The NL East teams Teheran played most of his games against last season hit better than the teams in the AL West he will play most of his games against.
@johnny Can you point out anything that is incorrect? Nope. If I am right about everything I said about Teheran then what about it is “ridiculously amped up”?
What your comment says is that you really have no clue about baseball, but you like to make snarky comments anyway. It means you are a troll.
Beisbolita, it’s easy to cherry pick one stat. His FIPMwas much better and he has a 4.23 FIP for his career, which he consistently outperforms.
Why would anyone in their right mind use xFIP… or even FIP?
He’s never had an ERA above his FIP or xFIP. No one with a clue would use it to evaluate him.
Like any sabermetric, you apply it in context. You would expect Teheran to outperform his xFIP playing in a pitchers park and in a pitchers division. His career splits support that assessment– 3.03 ERA at home, 4.81 ERA away. He is unlikely to continue to outperform his xFIP now that he is moving to a neutral park in a hitters division.
Sounds like you need to get a clue yourself and stop throwing rocks at the smart people who are willing to take time out to educate you.
He knows the art of pitching having watched others perform.
The “art of pitching” – Jim Price
He won’t be missed as a Brave. Stunk it up in his last appearance in the postseason too.
You have to love a pitcher who didnt even make the Braves post season staring rotation the past 2 seasons?! Great pick up Billy INEPT-PLER…
How did the Braves do in the playoffs?
Koam, better than the Angels
Answer the question. They sat at home after one series.
Okay, yeah, they flipped both first rounds, but this argument insinuates that’s because Teheran wasn’t in the rotation and that’s certainly not it.
The Braves have way more SP options. The Angels have way less and cannot be evaluated and compared like this.
Bring back Bartolo Colon Angels. He wants to pitch in the majors again. This is not a joke.
Quality signing. I’ve been wanting this inning eater for the last 2 years. Keep ’em coming
If you like a guy that walks everyone. Saw him start a game. Walks the first 2. Got a lucky gold glove double play. Walks the next 2. Gives up a grand slam. He’s a good pitcher when he’s on. But I would see him as a 3rd starter at best. And that’s being generous
guesses? 1/11?
If it’s more than that then atlanta screwed up by not retaining and trading him
Uh no.
No. Even if it were 1/11 then Atlanta would not have screwed up. It is one thing for a team to sign him for that, but they are not giving up anything in trade. Atlanta would have had to take the risk that someone would have still wanted him enough at that price point to give up something of value. Just not worth the risk.
That being said, he probably is worth what the Angels are paying him in todays inflated ERA game, but Atlanta has other options and depth. They can likely get the same output and possibly much better for FAR less money.
Lol
If that’s the big arm to get Trout to the promised land, then another year of disappointment is coming.
But they got Bundy, too!!1!!1
What makes it seem like the only arm they get? It’s a solid pickup.
They have a full rotation now, they’re not getting Ryu.
You don’t think there is any room for upgrades in that rotation?…
you want to pay Ryu to sit injured on the bench, like all of his previous season except for his contract year ?
Not necessarily. They do need 6 starters bc of Ohtani. And perhaps a Canning will be AAA depth, although he deserves a rotation shot.
The hell. Their 4-5 guys could be dropped for someone like Ryu and DK.
The Angels seem serious about contending next season. Lots of activity.
They’ve put lip stick on a pig in my opinion
🙂
Collectively angels play in a tougher division than yankees do.
Yankees rotation
Cole (2 years of tor pitching) 2.5 era
Paxton (cant stay healthy) 3.8 era
German (busted for peds) 4.20 era
Haap 4.2 era
Tanaka 4.45 era
Playing against toronto, red sox, baltimore all lottery teams.
Angels rotation
Ohtani 3.3 era
Tehran 3.8 era
Canning 4.4 era
Bundy 4.7 era
Heaney (cant stay healthy) 4.9 era
Plays against oakland, rangers, astros all playoff caliber teams.
So how is it fair to say one team is much better when stats are fairly similar despite angels playing in the tougher division? Angels arent done adding yet either….
But sure keep feeding the false narrative.
Also, a full year of Ohtani starting counts as a rotation boost. He was lights out for about 20 minutes and then had Tommy John Surgery and didn’t pitch last year. One does not simply forget how to sit mid-90s with a hammer and send people back to the dugout.
I’m having a hard time understanding your grouping of Boston with Baltimore & Toronto. Are you saying that the Red Sox won’t contend this year?
German wasn’t busted for PEDs. Care to continue about “false narratives”?
Callaway was the best upgrade to the pitching staff and makes the Angels pitchers better. All those teams in the West rake lefties. This was a better signing than the top pitchers remaining in free agency because they are all lefties. I like this signing. Low risk, high reward.
If you think boston is competing based on last year you are sadly mistaken. They are constantly trying to trade away their rotation and best player in mookie. They are a bottom feeder saddled with high priced contracts with little wiggle room. The only bad team in angels division is mariners.
@Imindless – Beyond not understanding your point, I also want to point out that the rotation you have for the Yankees is incorrect. Where is Severino?
Speaking of using a “false narrative.”
(Coming from somebody who uses ERA as his data point)
Just going on last years starters seeing as severino was injured the whole year and may not come back the same sure. Again most of you yankee homers like to talk down to angels players when there rotations are identical. Again angels arent done adding yet and have a better lineup that yankees do.
If youd like we can do ops+ which depicts a similar picture. Again yankees play 3 of the worst teams in majors and easily won 103 games but that doesnt mean they are “close” they are still miles behind astros. Also teams like dodgers, nats look better too
Check Fangraphs!
@imindless I agree with you partially. I see Cole as the only starter the Yankees can depend on. Most people don’t realize that Paxton was 5-6 entering the last couple months of the season. He won his last 10 decisions facing teams that were in heavy tank mode, like the Boston, Baltimore, and Toronto multiple times.. Even so, he started 29 games and only had 150 inning pitch. This is what a rookie stat line would look like. Severino is coming off injury, so he will be limited. Tanaka is a league average pitcher.
I don’t put the Rangers as a playoff caliber team but they did have a couple of 7+ WAR pitchers in Lynn and Moore. I don’t believe the Yankees rotation is as good as some believe they are, but I believe they are a top 10 rotation. Their bullpen is really good though. The Angels rotation is near the bottom even with Teheran, perhaps better than some now, like Milwuakee. . Their ERA may be similar comparison,, but you need to factor in that the Angels play in a pitchers ballpark. Also, their division has a couple of other pitcher ballparks, Oakland and Seattle. The Rangers and Astros are the only hitter’s ballparks. The East is mostly hitter’s ballparks, thus inflated ERAs and inflated offensive stats.
If you think the Red Sox are a “lottery team” (stick to the Lakers or Clippers bro) then that is a mistake. They may not be the top team in that division, but they’re still a top level team even if they have to trade Mookie.
As a Yankee fan I agree. I sure as heck don’t count the Sox out. They are still a better team than the Angels, that’s for sure. Quite possibly they’ll be a better team than the Rays.
Ops + which is park adjusted suppose the same argument i just made. The angels and yankees rotation are nearly identical minus cole. Again most of this website commenters have a heavy east coast bias. Again not based on facts.
This guy accuses others of using a “false narrative.”
Yet he says German was busted for PED’s, we wasnt.
He has in parenthesis Paxton cant stay healthy.
Yet next to Ohtani he just gives his ERA, because apparently ohtani has been healthy as a horse.
Then he doesn’t even include Severino in the Yankees rotation because he only pitched at the end of the year.
So if you don’t include severino, why is Ohtani included you nitwit? Didnt he not throw one inning?
They guy who came back in september and pitched well in the playoffs doesn’t count but a guy who never pitched does? Lol
Then you dont even factor in pitching in Yankee stadium.
Yeah, we are the ones with the false narrative.
Again dim whits like yourself key in on small information that still doesnt change the overall narrative. The Angels arent as bad as many claim and arent done adding and the yankees are done.
I mean having cole doesnt change the fact that astros still have verlander, greinke and co. Astros field a better offense and defense than yankees and a bullpen that is pretty close in terms of production. Again the yankees fans can spin it any way they like they field one of the highest payroll yearly and have 1 chip in nearly 20 years. You can hate the angels but they are trying to better there ball club and you cant blame them for that.
Let’s pump the brakes on Rangers as a playoff team for a minute. Ya know, let’s let them get there first.
So I point out how flawed your argument was comparing the angels rotation to the Yankees and your response is the Astros still have verlander and Greinke and a better offense?
This guy doesn’t move the goal posts, he just flat out changes the game, lol.
Here is your latest moronic statement:
“Again most of you yankee homers like to talk down to angels players when there rotations are identical.”
Find ONE person who agrees with that braindead statement, just ONE.
But were the homers
Imindless – German wasn’t “busted for peds”. Try getting your facts straight. If you want to say that Paxton “can’t stay healthy” you should also note that Ohtani hasn’t been healthy for a full season yet.
But sure keep feeding the false narrative.
He wont admit hes wrong, he’ll just say you’re a homer and make up more nonsense.
Hes easily the dumbest poster here, lol.
Boogaloo – you are correct.
Lottery teams? When did MLB get a lottery? Just because they missed the playoffs last year means nothing in 2020. Every team still starts with the exact same 0-0 record. Yes, some teams have more talent, but injuries happen too. No one can predict the future with numbers, no matter how complex the equation. As soon as they are able to, there is no point in even playing the games anymore.
Ok. Still need that top of the rotation piece. At this point either Ryu or Keuchel look nice.
Keuchel is not top of rotation material… more a 4/5
You’re right, he’s not, But this allows them to go after someone like Ryu.
The Angels needed innings. Had they done this a week ago, it would have allowed them to go after Kluber.
This piece was necessary.
A week ago, trade rumors reported that the Angels asked about Kluber and Cleveland wanted Marsh and another prospect. LA didn’t want to give up Marsh and Kluber went elsewhere. If the Angels gave up Marsh, Kluber is now on the Angels, but that didn’t happen.
I don’t understand why they needed to sign Teheran in order to trade for Kluber.
I think they wanted more than Marsh.
Yeah…I don’t think trading for Kluber and signing Teheran have anything to do with each other (unless they would’ve not signed Teheran had they acquired Kluber).
Because Kluber can’t be counted on for 150 innings and the Angels need more than one pitcher who is expected to pitch more than 150 innings. Teheran gives them two.
Ok, but they could have traded for Kluber last week and still signed Teheran this week.
I agree. But Kluber or Ryu or Price is not feasible without Teheran. And since i’m not in the front office, I didn’t know they were going to sign Teheran, I’ve just been advocating signing Teheran since Cole went off the board.
If Eppler gave up Marsh for a 34 year old starter who missed nearly all of 2019 he would have lost his job.
Sadly, he’d be our top of the rotation piece. Good for about 3 WAR.
I think his game plays well with our defense, though. Rendon, Simba, and Fletcher will turn all those ground balls into outs.
He’s better here than he would be most places.
either is Ryu at 34 and always breaking down. JJ has no idea what hes talking about…he a halo homer.
@AtlSoxFan….true but he would be THEIR #1
Keuchel could be a 2/3 with a full healthy season
Keuchel is a LH Teheran. If we are going after a LHP as the TOR then its got to be Ryu even with his injury history.
Ryu is going to want way too much and with his injury history, he’s not worth it.
Ryu’s market is interesting. On the one hand he’s a Boras guy, but on the other there’s a vibrant Korean community in OC, just down the street from the Big A, and direct flights back home. He may very well prefer to stay in this area.
That’s just speculation on my part, but Arte has money and Ryu has a fanbase here. Those two could line up.
The injury history is scary. I think we’re going more of a six man rotation to fit Ohtani’s schedule in, so that might help.
Ryu is a good fit for the Angels IMO. Bring him in and hope he stays healthy and acquire a piece like Tehran for more durability.
I believe Keuchel is better than most people realize. He had a tough off season and was not signed until after the season began. He did not have the benefit of a spring training. His last 9 starts he had an ERA of 2.55. I would love to have him inducing ground balls for Rendon and Simmons. He would be a great pickup for the Angels.
Solid pickup for the Angels. Not a world beater, but a guy who gets outs and consistently outperforms his peripherals to get the job done. Credit to Eppler on this one.
This guy is going to be decimated in the AL West, let’s just face facts. He was a bad pitcher in the NL Easy
Again based more on your homerism that actual fact. Cole is gonna get launched in the al east and im gonna enjoy hearing yankee fans moan they have him for 9/10 years. Mediocre outside of astros years.
Cole will be fine in the AL East.
not called mindless for nothing.
Gonna be another jacoby ellsbury type deal. Just look at recent trades and signing yankees have made, stanton and sony gray have been great.
the NL East was probably tied with the AL East or West in being the second strongest division last year. what are you saying?
Well, I know the Mariners won’t crush him because I watch their lineup perform every night. I expect a low 4s ERA from him. I’ll say 4.16 in 2019.
Rangers, Astros, and Athletics should mash off Teheran. I suspect he carries a high 4s, if not in the 5s.
The NL East hit better than the AL West last season. If anything, Teheran will get better with Rendon, Simmons, and Fletcher in the infield.
Teheran was 19% better than league average last season. He has been 10% better than league average as a Brave. Better than average is the opposite of bad.
I suggest that you consider looking up how ERA+ is calculated.
I wonder how a team goes from I want to cole to him
They didn’t get Cole because they focused on Rendon
No they focused on Cole then when they didn’t get Cole they pivoted to Rendon. If it weren’t for Cole they would have gotten Rendon sooner.
We didn’t get Cole because we would not go 9 years. We need innings eaters more than anything now that the 2 Ace’s are off the market. What we do not need is LHP. We have Heaney, Suarez, Peters, and Sandoval that are all southpaws.
As a Halos fan, I like this Would like to add Keuchel or Ryu as well, but hopefully some movement will get some of our fanbase to shut up and be patient for 45 minutes.
Seems like a guy who might not be good enough to be successful in the AL…
The al sucks
The NL East teams he faced hit better than the AL West teams he will face in 2020.
Diggin through that trash can again
He was a 2.4 win pitcher last year. How’s that the trash can?
Because there are pitchers available like Ryu who doubled that WAR number and the Angels seem uninterested.
LA Times reported 2 hours before your post that the Angels are talking with both Ryu and Keuchel.
Yeh fr , they had all the time in the world to sign a decent pitcher and their rotation is literally just decent , this team is uninterested in winning , they have trout and Ohtani to sell tickets and they’re just fine with that .Theyll probably pick up another pitcher like Jeremy Hellickson , sign Gordon Beckham to play second and go on with their year
OK great, what are they waiting for? They made a great move to shed Cozart salary and they have some other big contracts coming off the books the next 3 years. Makes no sense to pay Trout & Rendon all that money and stop there.
What did Ryu do the year before in his 82 IP?
I am more optimistic about this signing than the Cahill or Harvey……that was true dumpster diving.
I hate the word dumpster diving, I much prefer flyer.
Cahill had a 4.55 ERA after coming back from an injury in 2018, But prior to his 2018 injury, he had a 2.77 ERA. He pitched for the A’s and overall had a 110 ERA+. For the Angels, the signing didn’t work out, for the A’s it did.
Harvey was a complete flyer.
Teams sign flyers to one year contracts. The A’s did when the signed Cahill and the Angels did when they signed Cahill.
I have no issue with one year contracts for pitchers.
Oh great Angels fans here we go..2019 all over again smh let the one year bandaids start
Julio is miles better than Cahill or Harvey. those two shouldnt have even been starting.
Good for Julio. I hope it works out well for him. Hopefully he doesn’t pitch in Atlanta in July
Keuchel and another innings eater like Nova or a guy with upside like Wood.
that increasing walk rate…the AL will eat him alive
Why? The NL East hit better last season than than the AL West.
Glad to see JT find a landing spot. Also glad that landing spot wasn’t with the Braves.
Keuchel to the Padres and Ryu to the Angels
Reverse that. Could see it happening either way.
Still having trouble at 2B ,?? I heard Pete Kozma is available
@1738hotlinebling is Pete Kozma, confirmed.
Where do I send my application ? does anybody know anyone from the Angels front office ?
no, but ive heard of David Fletcher and Tommy La Stella.
We’ll see how long Maddon and La Stella get along
Maddon hasn’t stopped raving about “Tommy-La” since taking the helm. Am I missing something?
good sign by the Angels, only one year so won’t cost too much, wonderful up side
Good signing. Adds depth to the rotation and does not preclude adding more rotation pieces via FA or trade.
Anything more than league minis too much
Minimum I meant
Free PSA: you didnt need to correct it. no one reads your comments anyway.
Only you
clepto out trolling again. All he does. A big person does things like volunteering time and donating money. A small person goes online and trolls. I won’t get into what type of childhood produces an online bully but I will say that it takes a lot of therapy to turn a bully into a, well, not an actual decent human being, but a tolerable one. He should get started for the sake of everyone he meets. and himself. btw, he’ll probably be along to prove my point.
Pot calling the kettle black.
I’ve been calling this for a long time.
This allows them to gamble. My hope is Ryu. My fear is Price.
The Angels could not add a pitcher who may not pitch 120 innings unless they added stability. This does that.
according to cot’s angels have $26 mil left before hitting the threshold.
You sure? The Threshold is not about payroll it’s about AAV.
it says amount under tax threshold.
docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/1FsmsUpbOz2RsyxdPSM…
It looks like they do it right. Thanks.
Correct. It is based on AAV. Take Andelton Simmons for example. You can see he makes $15M this season in the gold columnin the center,, but his contract was 7yrs / $58M. If you look in the grey column on the right, it only counts $8.3M toward the competitive balance tax even though he is being paid $15M. this year.
This Braves supporter hates to see Julio go. I was hoping Atlanta would find middle ground and retain him. He’s always healthy and an innings-eater, good sign for the Angels.
Nice inning eater! Angels really need one with their current rotation barely ever seeing 150 innings
Eat enough innings until their bullpen blows it
We’ll see what this bullpen can do now that they won’t have to go to work in the 4th inning every night.
Teheran has had his struggles, but I likd the signing. Good vet with a solid arm. Has some upside. That being said he had some of the best pitching coaches in Atlanta. Curious to see how he does in Anaheim.
yep. as a Phillies fan ya gotta know that this guy has talent beyond what he gets credit for. this guy shuts us down every time he comes here, and keeps his ERA well lower then guys like Gibson do. good get.
Depending on the $$$, this could be a good pickup. One red flag is Teheran’s career numbers in interleague play. Overall numbers suggest a fine back end starter. Angels need a top flight arm (Clevinger?)
Clevinger is the type of trade that would really help the Angel’s staff. But, they better be prepared to include Adell in those talks. If they do trade for Clevinger and sign Ryu, then I think the Angel’s could make some noise out west
I think this is all about innings.
Now the Angels can go after Price or Ryu. They can start with a six man rotation and adjust as the season goes. When you have Ohtani and Heaney and to a lesser extent Canning, who all have high upsides when they pitch, an innings eater is necessary.
It’s a good move.
Out of curiosity….what type of deal would you hope for if the Angels deal for Price? I’d think Upton would be part of it. Then if I’m the Angels I sign Castellanos.
The Angels don’t have to give up anyone for Price. It will be a 3 year deal for around 40 million. The Red Sox would eat the rest.
The Angels would not give up a top 10 prospect for Price. The Red Sox are upside down on the contract. They will need to include a top tier prospect to unload that contact or be willing to eat most of that contract. The Angels are not looking for injury prone guys like Price. I can tell that they are sick of the injuries with their signing of Bundy and Teheran. For this reason, I believe they will stay clear of Ryu as well and sign Keuchel.
Since adding a starter will mean a six man rotation, I think they’ll go for a higher upside guy. But I don’t know.
macstruts
No way is Price going for $13.3MM/yr while the Sox eat nearly $20MM/yr. Sox eat $14-15MM/yr. tops and they’ll get a lottery ticket or two.
his ERA will be around 4.50
Fine. It’s better than having the Angels pitch their 10th starter, which they have done many many many times over the last four years.
Last season we had 19 pitchers make starts, 14 of which made 5 + starts. .
It’s never a good sign when the Braves give up on a pitcher.
What the hell were the Giants smoking to give Kevin Gausman $9 million guaranteed?
I’m guessing that they looked at things like FIP, ground ball rate, strikeout rate and K-BB rate. He was superior to Teheran in all of these areas, and that’s independent of what they might have liked from simply scouting him.
Giants fans are going to have to reboot. It’s not easy when we’ve become accustomed to the way that Sabean made decisions. Ultimately Zaidi is going to have to deliver results in order to get folks to rethink player value during the offseason, but I’m intrigued and hopeful.
Teheran vs Gausman is why advanced metrics fail when actually put to the test. Gausman tends to always be a “better” pitcher, but Teheran always provides more results and value to his team.
Definitely a place for both ‘traditional’ methods and advanced analytics. My personal opinion is that you can crunch numbers all day, but it’s still a game played by humans. By all accounts, Teheran is a team leader and a great guy in the clubhouse. He’s not an ace, or the top-of-the-rotation arm some thought he could’ve been at the start of the decade, but a super-solid regular season arm that is proven to stay healthy, eat innings, and not lose games for you. For a year at $9 million, its a good move on the field and in the clubhouse.
I’d take Gausman over Teheran everyday.
So you want to complete throw out his injury last year. And his performance last year.
OK. You’re entitled. For the Angels, I’d rather have Teheran.
Get ready to see a lot of balls fly out of the park over Trouts head. Julio is good at giving up the home run ball
He was better than league average in HR/9. Interested in hearing you try to defend your statement that he is “good at giving up the home run ball” when the stats say just the opposite.
It’s a start. Another innings eater.
Now get RYU
If I wasn’t familiar with Teheran, judging by these comments, I’d assume he was a minor league journeyman with little to no mlb success. What is with the abject hate for this dude? Certainly didn’t live up to the hype and early promise he initially showed, but, my lord, he’s been entirely serviceable. He certainly outperforms his peripherals, which is concerning, and a move to the AL could undoubtedly be detrimental to his bottom line, but the guy is a legit innings eater at the very least, and offers some amount of potential upside. He may very well bomb for all I know, but he’s had an eminently above average career to this point.
Lol completely agree, bunch of clowns
it’s not about him. trolls come out of mamas’ basements whenever thereis an angels article.
everyone here thinks analytics directly equate with wins. they cling to stats that say that Alex Colome and this guy are useless, while guys
who can thow hard but never get anyone out are just unlucky.
Teheran is a guy every Braves fan has been trying to deal for years in their fake proposals. Because they know he’s not very good. He’s a pitcher that walks a tight rope and can blow up at any point, whose peripherals are always bad yet, somehow has a decent ERA. I will say he’s more likely to log innings than Harvey and Cahill. Ineffective innings, but innings.
Last season Teheran had a 119 ERA+, 19% better than league average.
Last season he had a 2.7 WAR, 12.5% better than league average.
He had a 3.81 ERA vs 4.33 league average for starters.
He allowed 4.17 RA/9 vs 5.05 RA/9 league average for starters.
He allowed a .229 BAA vs .249 BAA league average for starters.
He had 174.2 IP, 36.2% better than league average for starters.
So he was more effective and pitched more than the average starter in the NL. Effective innings. Lots of innings.
Everything that matters is better than average, but you don’t like his peripherals? Are you serious?
Nice move, *cough* the angels still haven’t topped Kluber.
It’s true, but a cheap 1 year deal over dealing a top prospect is a smarter move for our franchise currently.
They have to have guys ready to compete after Trout retires.
Oh yeah, it is a smart move, but they still don’t have a true ace, personally i’d “like” to see them go get Darvish.
@Rangers29 ….but they have a 3rd baseman.
Now you listen here you little #$%$
lol, its all fun and games until the Rangers go to the WC and the Angels are still in 4th.
If the money is right, I think he is worth taking a chance with on a one year deal.
Time to celebrate officially. Terrible pitcher
No he isnt. He’s a middle of the rotation arm that stays healthy. That has value in todays game where pitchers regularly visit the injured list.
I will say he’s more likely to log innings than Cahill and Harvey. Ineffective innings, but innings. This guys FIP has regression written all over him. Not too mention moving to the AL.
Last season Teheran had a 119 ERA+, 19% better than league average.
Last season he had a 2.7 WAR, 12.5% better than league average.
He had a 3.81 ERA vs 4.33 league average for starters.
He allowed 4.17 RA/9 vs 5.05 RA/9 league average for starters.
He allowed a .229 BAA vs .249 BAA league average for starters.
He had 174.2 IP, 36.2% better than league average for starters.
So he was more effective and pitched more than the average starter in the NL. Effective innings. Lots of innings.
Everything that matters is better than average and he has outperformed his peripherals every season, but you don’t like his FIP? What are you smoking?
Not sure if there’s been an article written on it, but I’m curious how pitchers fair from going to the AL from the NL. Does not having to hit allow the pitcher to focus more on pitching? What about facing a DH instead of a P? Obviously the pitcher is going to see batters that they’ve never seen before and vice versa. I tried searching for such an article, to no avail. Anyone read such an article?
Lol so much homerism in here its unbearable. If he signs with yankees he is a legit ace but he goes to angels and its a bad sign lol
Now that’s a homer’s comment.
Not according to yankees fans like yourself. Angels have as many chips as yankees do in the last 20 years lol
No the Yanks have two. Angels just one.
You actually think this moron can do basic math?
This century the Angels have as many, but the Yankees won in 2000 so they have more in last 20 years.
Nah, pretty sure whichever team signed this guy would’ve taken heat, and it’s such a typical Angels pitching signing it’s almost funny.
I like it, but they better not stop here. The Angels need a #1 or the Rendon signing is more pointless than it already is
The Angels fortunes will be tied to HEALTH. Their three top pitchers in my view are Ohtani, Heaney and Canning, ALL 3 of them spent time on the DL. IF those guys can start 30 games this team could be very solid. Terhran and Bundy are pretty awesome back-end rotation guys. So to me it’s all about the health of those top 3. Ohtani has proven he can be ace level and while Heaney did struggled with the baseballs with wings 2019 season at times he was dynamic. Again, it’s all on health. I think they have some depth in case a guy or two get hurt. Suarez and Sandoval, I don’t project them as aces or anything, but both have gotten their taste. The Halos rotation should be in much better shape this year. Of course, injuries can’t be predicted.
I think they need a catcher and Maddon needs to play “small ball” a bit more, but I wouldn’t bury this team quite yet.
there is absolutely no way Ohtani makes 30 starts after TJ
Ohtani won’t make 30 starts. More likely 20-24 and about 120-130 IP. That is why we need guys like Teheran and Bundy that eat innings.
Definently a step in the right direction for the Angels in filling out the rotation. They should be all-in on Keuchel and a reclamation project like T. walker, A. Cashner or S. Miller. They could use some back end bullpen help too. G. Holland, T. Clippard, C. Allen, A. Reed all make sense to some degree
Yeah, if their goal was to sign a pitcher as bad as Harvey and Cahill were last yr. I will say he’s more likely to log innings. Ineffective innings, but innings.
Since you keep saying the same crap over and over i will cut and paste my last response to you.
Last season Teheran had a 119 ERA+, 19% better than league average.
Last season he had a 2.7 WAR, 12.5% better than league average.
He had a 3.81 ERA vs 4.33 league average for starters.
He allowed 4.17 RA/9 vs 5.05 RA/9 league average for starters.
He allowed a .229 BAA vs .249 BAA league average for starters.
He had 174.2 IP, 36.2% better than league average for starters.
So he was more effective and pitched more than the average starter in the NL. Effective innings. Lots of innings.
Everything that matters is better than average and he has outperformed his peripherals every season, but you don’t like his FIP? What are you smoking?
Good for Julio. I’m rooting for him
Good luck Teheran. As a Braves fan, he was tough to watch sometimes but brilliant other times. Really hate to see him go bc of the consistency he provided. Hope he finds it consistently in CA.
Was hoping Mets would sign him
..Porcello and Wacha arent bad tho…
Good sign by rhe Angels
As a Met fan I would have taken him over Porchello and Wacka Mole!
Loyal, longtime Braves fan here. Teheran is teh-herrible.
Yeah agreed, he’s truly awful. I can’t imagine a move to the AL does him any favors either.
Quintana did so much better in the NL. Oh wait. Nevermind.
Why do you feel it’s necessary to write a dozen negative posts on a thread about the Angels?
Teheran was 19% better than league average last season. He has been 10% better than league average as a Brave. Better than average is the opposite of terrible.
Last season Teheran had a 119 ERA+, 19% better than league average.
Last season he had a 2.7 WAR, 12.5% better than league average.
He had a 3.81 ERA vs 4.33 league average for starters.
He allowed 4.17 RA/9 vs 5.05 RA/9 league average for starters.
He allowed a .229 BAA vs .249 BAA league average for starters.
He had 174.2 IP, 36.2% better than league average for starters.
So he was the opposite of terrible. He was better than average.
You are obviously feeling butt hurt that he left the Braves.
So, what, Big Sexy wasn’t available?
I like this move for the Angels. Obviously they missed out on Cole and Stras, so they’re going Quantity over Quality. After seeing Harvey get lit for 6 ERA last season, I’d take 4.50 ERA all day long. Especially with that lineup.
better get used to watching a lot of walks and baserunners
That’s the rub on him for sure. Hopefully Callaway can help his control a bit. I like Teheran because of his past durability. The 2019 Angel’s rotation was a dumpster fire of injured players.
His ERA has been luck based and his FIP (the true measure of a pitcher) is always awful. Plus he’s moving to the AL. No way he pitches to under a 5 ERA. He’s terrible. But will give the Angels innings I guess..
He’s also going to a park where it is tougher to hit home runs.
@bush1 FIP is only part of the measure of a pitcher. If you think that any one stat tells the story you are sadly mistaken. Luck is over a game or two. Anything beyond that is based on skill.
Everything including FIP shows that Teheran is an above average starter. Career stats of 3.67 ERA, 4.23 FIP 110 ERA+ 2.8 WAR
The teams he faced in the NL East hit better last season than the teams he will face in the AL West..
Care to try to anything else stupid?
Koamalu, you saved me a longer post, my friend. Spot on.
This is a pretty good signing for the Angels –> relative to what they have been trotting out there recently.
This must be the big splash that Eppler had eluded to. fire Billy INEPT-PLER immediately…!!!!!
So what was rendon?
Artes crush. Another $200+mil mistake made by our dumb owner. Eppler is a joke too. They all kinda complement each other
Dumpster diving again….
A starting staff full of 2 #3’s and the rest 4’s and 5’s at best
Right, because every team in baseball adds a star to the back end of their rotation.
The Astros, Rangers and A’s sure did.. Oh wait, they didn’t.
I think you people are nuts.
They love their 1 year bandaid over bullet hole contracts…. I guess some will never learn. The scoreboard and standings don’t lie.
Do you know anything about this pitcher? He is a good number 3 starter.
I think the Angels signed him as a number five. Their next pitcher will be rated higher. Let’s say it’s Ryu. Just for fun.
Ryu, Ohtani, Heaney, Canning, Teheran, Bundy.
most korean media are predicting ryu sign with the angels.
I hope they are right.
Preller’s pitching options are getting worse and worse.
hello Klentak you asleep?
Julio Teheran is an underrated pitcher. I would know because I’m a Braves fan. He was billed as an ace but when that never really came out, the back lash made it so a lot of Braves fans couldn’t appreciate what Teheran really is; a middle rotation piece that soaks up innings and stays healthy. That does have value. Its hard to find pitchers that will pitch over 170 IP and start 30 or more games every year.
The other reason Teheran is underrated is because of sabre metrics. Every year..and I mean EVERY year, Teheran’s peripherals look bad and trust in advanced stats is widely excepted by fans.
I think now is the time to tell everyone that I also embrace metrics as the primary way for fans to evaluate players, but…sometimes there is a player that sabre metrics just can’t figure out. Teheran is one of them and I can prove it.
2019
ERA: 3.81
FIP: 4.66
XFIP: 5.26
2018
ERA: 3.94
FIP: 4.83
XFIP: 4.72
2017
ERA: 4.49
FIP: 4.95
XFIP: 4.96
2016
ERA: 3.21
FIP: 3.69
XFIP: 4.13
Does anyone notice a trend? Every year Teheran’s peripherals say that he was not as good as his ERA says. EVERY YEAR! Check out his career stats for yourself if you don’t believe me:
fangraphs.com/players/julio-teheran/6797/stats?pos…
What do you suppose the chances are that in 7 full seasons Teheran would be lucky in all of them? Doesn’t seem very likely, right? If you embrace sabre metrics then you can’t simply ignore this.
Teheran is not an ace and not even a no.2 pitcher. But Teheran is a decent middle rotation arm that is better than his peripherals say.
I expected the Braves to wait until later in the offseason and offer him roughly $9 million to fill that last spot. Would still love to have him (at the right price) His market must have been thin otherwise I don’t think he’s the type of player who takes a deal this early,
Good signing, now they need a top end guy like Ryu or Keuchel. and a couple of relief pitchers to contend.
We need a veteran catcher who can make this pitching staff better. We should go get Maldonado back. We don’t need his offense but his skills with the staff were great
No question about it. They need to add Castro. With Trout batting second and Rendon batting 3rd, a pitcher hitting in the ninth spot (Maldonado) is not an option.
Matt Boyd trade next?
I don’t know much about Teheran, but after looking at his stats, he is very consistent and looks like a solid middle rotation addition. Another quiet signing by Eppler to improve this team. We still need a top end starter, a bullpen piece or two, and a catcher.
PS: I’d like to see Upton wrapped up in a trade for someone…anyone.
upton has a full no trade . besides, he had a down season because of an injury. as soon as the season ended he went through a surgery to get better. now if you could trade him, why trade him when he has the lowest value?
Yeah Vizion, Upton would have to agree to a trade. I don’t know why there is such hype over him though. Just looking at his career BA, it’s .266 which is generally mediocre. OBP is .347. I find his defense to be nothing more than lazy. We could do better with Goodwin in LF and Adell in RF. But I realize he’s not going anywhere.
OPS+ for Upton the last two years prior to last year. 129+. The Astros are thrilled with Brantly, his OPS+ last year, 126.
Because he’s been in the news a lot lately, Dave Parker lifetime OPS+ 121.
Other than being overpaid, I honestly don’t know what people are thinking.
Upton would not hit 3rd in Houston’s lineup if they were traded for one another. The OPS+ is another flawed stat. Upton probably hits behind Correa in the 7-hole if they flipped teams. Brantley probably hits before or after Trout if on the Angels.
As someone who uses OPS often when making statistical arguments, would you mind saying what you think is flawed about OPS+?
Yes, OPS+ is flawed. And Brantly wouldn’t hit 3rd for the Angels this year. Upton will be hitting 5th.
A guy with a 503 slugging pct batting 5th is fine with me. Upton is not a weak spot.
Assuming the Angels add Jason Castro, Pujols batting 6th is the only weak spot in this lineup. By weak spot I mean weak relative to expected production for that spot.
Ontario. It doesn’t value OBP enough.
It’s not as good a wRC+. Which Upton ranks 23rd in baseball for the 2017 and 2018 season.
They’re completely different stats, though. OPS+ is just park-adjusted OPS, No runs created factored in at all.
It’s a flawed stat. But for a down and dirty stat, it’s fine. If someone is batting 5th. I want him to slug.
All lineup spots are not created equal. I’m really really happy with Upton batting behind Trout, Rendon and Ohtani.
I guess I don’t follow you, unless by “flawed stat” you mean “unsuitable to use as a single stat illustrating a hitter’s offensive value.” Which, yeah, no kidding.
It’s WereAllJustGuestsHere’s definition of flawed I was curious about.
I guess by flawed is that it can be misleading.
His OBP is 20 points above the league OBP. His slugging is 60 points above league average.
If slugging is 40 points higher than OBP, and since OBP is more important, for Upton, it’s slightly misleading.
Upton’s wRC+ was 137 and 123 in 2017 and 2018 or an average of 130. A little better than his OPS+.
He was #1 among LF in the AL in both wRC+ and OPS+ those two seasons.
wRC+ and OPS+ are virtually identical for most players.
There we have the bone of contention. A walk is nowhere near as valuable as a double or a triple or a HR but it counts the same in OBP. Extra base hits start at 4 times more likely to create a run than a walk depending on the game situation. Slugging % should carry more weight than OBP. Instead they are weighted equally.
A pretty big generalization, and doesn’t change the fact that the two stats differ a significant amount in what they attempt to quantify, with wRC+ the much more complex of the two.
They are calculated differently and almost always come to exactly the same conclusion about the players offensive ability. .
In this case they both say that Upton was the best LF in the AL on offense in 2017-2018.
“They are calculated differently and almost always come to exactly the same conclusion about the players offensive ability.”
No they don’t, because while the park/league adjustment gives both stats the same format, only one of them is designed to come to a conclusion about a player’s overall offensive contribution.
OPS+ = Park/League adjusted version of OPS. That’s it.
wRC+ = Park/League adjusted version of wRC, which was specifically created to measure a player’s overall offensive performance,
Another cross your fingers starting pitcher for the Angels.
They never learn.
If they sign Ryu that would be the cherry on top.
Go sign the one guy who only stayed healthy in his walk year, lol.
I guess their idea is to collect as many 5th starters as possible.
How can a guy with a career 3.67 ERA be considered a cross your fingers starting pitcher? He is a solid number 3 pitcher.
He’s also never injured. Will eat innings. He will need run support though.
And yet a team with an average rotation wouldn’t even pick up his option.
Any thoughts on why they couldn’t even find a taker in the trade market for this “solid number 3 starter”?
Angel fans are so blind.
He’s the 5th starter in this rotation. People who don’t follow the Angels are so blind.
What statistic of his don’t you like?
From 2017-19, Teheran has 3.3 total fWAR, a 4.09 ERA, 7.9 K/9, and 1.99 K/BB rate over 538 2/3 frames. While he posted a 3.81 ERA in 2019, ERA predictors like FIP (4.66), xFIP (5.26), and SIERA (5.11) painted a much more dire picture of Teheran’s 2019 performance. He also posted a career-high 39.1% hard-hit ball rate, and he finished in the bottom tenth percentile of all qualified pitchers in fastball velocity, with only a 89.7mph average on his heater.
Need any more stats?
Hes a 5th starter on a good team, congrats.
He’s out performed his peripherals EVERY YEAR. And some point, buy a vowel and realize they don’t work for every player.
He’s the Angels 5th starter and he’s better than a typical 5th starter. The Braves would rather pay 1 million for Newcomb than 11 million for Tehran. That doesn’t mean he couldn’t make the braves staff.
All the Angels have are 5th starters, outside of the guy who maybe pitches once a week.
Last season Teheran had a 119 ERA+, 19% better than league average.
Last season he had a 2.7 WAR, 12.5% better than league average.
He had a 3.81 ERA vs 4.33 league average for starters.
He allowed 4.17 RA/9 vs 5.05 RA/9 league average for starters.
He allowed a .229 BAA vs .249 BAA league average for starters.
He had 174.2 IP, 36.2% better than league average for starters.
So he was more effective and pitched more innings than the average starter, in other words a #3 starter, in the NL.
Every single year he outperformed the so called ERA predictors like FIP, xFIP, and SIERRA. That shows clearly that those “predictors” were wrong about him.
In everything that matters, in other words the ACTUAL stats, he was better than average.
Need any more stats?
Boog, it’s often said don’t criticize unless you offer a solution. The Angel’s were never going to outbid the Yanks on Cole (nobody could) and we all knew Stras was going back to DC, so what pitchers do you recommend the Angel’s signing to team up with Ohtani, Heaney, Canning, Bundy, and Barria? Let’s assume Teheran wasnt signed, so you have about $32M AAV (under lux tax) to spend on I’m assuming 2 pitchers. Let’s hear it…
After Teheran we are at $185 million with the CBT at $208 million next year. We still have $33 million AAV to spend.
Koa, $208 minus $185 is $23M, then I’m adding back in the Teheran $9M (for arguments sake) for a total of $32M AAV for Boog or anyone else to spend. I’m interested for someone to tell me how you get a couple top free agent pitchers for $32M AAV. My argument is that you have to sign someone like Teheran and go for a Kuechel-esque quality pitcher around $18M – $20M AAV (or up to $23M, but I doubt the Halos want to get that close to the lux tax threshold)..
Sorry, I took the $33 million from MLB Network earlier in the day. Should have done my own math. LOL.
Kuechel and Ryu will not get $33 million guaranteed between them.
My solution would of been to focus on pitching the last few years.
Angel fans do this every single year.
Never should of signed puljos, upton, cozart, ect. But angel fans said they were all great moves when everyone knew the team needed pitching.
Asking me what my “solution” is like a 600 pound guy saying what’s your solution for getting me in shape? Lol
Same one i had when you were 250,300,400 and 500 pounds.
The angels just never learn.
I’ll certainly concede their lack of free agent pitching acquisitions. I point to 2016 where it was clear Jered Weaver was no longer their ace, they positioned Garrett Richards for that role and had a young supporting core of Heaney, Skaggs, Shoemaker, Tropeano, and JC Ramirez. Unfortunately, all ended up having TJ surgery or heavy injuries (Shoe). The org has never recovered pitching-wise. Certainly Skagg’s death was quite a blow. Now, as they say, they are what they are…my point is that going forward, they have to take flyers on durable guys like Teheran because we all know Boras wants to use one LHP to drive up the price for the other (they way he did Stras and Cole). The Angels clearly can’t afford both (not on Boras’ watch), so perhaps a Keuchel signing combined with Teheran and Bundy is the best course of action. Perfect moves? Nope. But necessary? Probably…
@boogaloo You are the one that seems to not be able to learn since you keep posting the same garbage. I will post the relevant stats again.
Last season Teheran had a 119 ERA+, 19% better than league average.
Last season he had a 2.7 WAR, 12.5% better than league average.
He had a 3.81 ERA vs 4.33 league average for starters.
He allowed 4.17 RA/9 vs 5.05 RA/9 league average for starters.
He allowed a .229 BAA vs .249 BAA league average for starters.
He had 174.2 IP, 36.2% better than league average for starters.
So he was more effective and pitched more innings than the average starter, in other words a #3 starter, in the NL.
Every single year he outperformed the so called ERA predictors like FIP, xFIP, and SIERRA. That shows clearly that those “predictors” were wrong about him.
In everything that matters, in other words the ACTUAL stats, he was better than average.
Are you going to continue to be a troll or are you going to actually try to discuss baseball intelligently for a change?
Nice pick-up for the Angels. They need as many pitching pieces as they can get a hold of.
Lol. This signing is soooo Angels. He sucks and will get crushed in the AL.
another 100+ years for cubs just for your trolling!
Since you keep posting the same garbage, I will post the relevant stats again.
Last season Teheran had a 119 ERA+, 19% better than league average.
Last season he had a 2.7 WAR, 12.5% better than league average.
He had a 3.81 ERA vs 4.33 league average for starters.
He allowed 4.17 RA/9 vs 5.05 RA/9 league average for starters.
He allowed a .229 BAA vs .249 BAA league average for starters.
He had 174.2 IP, 36.2% better than league average for starters.
So he was more effective and pitched more innings than the average starter, in other words a #3 starter, in the NL.
Every single year he outperformed the so called ERA predictors like FIP, xFIP, and SIERRA. That shows clearly that those “predictors” were wrong about him.
In everything that matters, in other words the ACTUAL stats, he was better than average.
Do you understand what better than average means?
It a bad signing but it doesn’t do much to move the needle. Angels needed Cole + Teheran to even be taken seriously.
At least it’s a pitcher
Deja Vu….This is the exact same script they had last year with Cahill/Harvey.
If he can cut down his BBs it could be a good signing.
If the Angels sign Ryu or Keuchel, will the haters still hate? Probably.
They’re not going to sign anyone else. Word is, they’re happy with their current rotation. Smh this is why the Angels are a joke of an organization.
And you heard this word…from…where now?
Mr Ward is the joke.
He heard it from the voices in his head.
I think they will sign someone else. Either Ryu or Kuechell.
And that joke Organization had the 12th best record of the decade. I guess 16 teams are bigger jokes.
That joke of an organization has the 6th best record of the 21th century.
I guess 24 teams are bigger jokes.
No there aren’t. One playoff appearance with trout.
They sign these guys no one else wants on “low risk” deals and dumb angel fans tell everyone how it’s going to work out this time.
You can replace tehrans name this year with Cahill and Harvey last year and angel fans were saying the same thing.
Every year its some 4th/5th starter that’s going to be great.
Why can’t you clowns just be right ONCE before you open your mouths?
What makes you think he is a 4th or 5th starter? He is a solid #3 that doesn’t get injured and eats up innings. He has a career ERA of 3.67.
We don’t need a 4 or 5 to be great. We just need them to keep the ERA below 4.5 and not require Tommy John surgery after 2 starts.
They sign these guys that no one else wants? First of all, that’s flat out wrong. It’s so wrong it’s a lie.
However, like almost all teams, they do take flyers at back of the rotation. The A’s do it, the Astros do it, the Rangers do it.
Do you follow baseball?
Boston just signed a back of the rotation starter for six million. I don’t think you follow baseball. Every team does it.
And for a 5th starter. I’ll take Teheran. Why did the Braves not sign him? I guess they’d rather pay Newcomb a million than Teheran 11 million. But I bet if they were the same price. The Braves would prefer Teheran.
That is Boston circa 2020, trying to duck the Luxury line. Pretty much no other year does Boston sign Martin Perez.
@Boogaloo I am not the type to feed the trolls, but here is a fish, troll.
Cahill and Harvey were pitchers with injury past. Teheran is not the greatest pitcher in the world, but he is dependable. He has 7 years of 30 plus starts.
This is something that the Angels have not had in recent years. Bundy is also dependable, though I realize he is not exactly going to set the world on fire. He will be a better option than throwing a minor leaguer that is not ready or throwing bullpen games like the Angels have done in the past couple of seasons. There are no guarantees with pitchers that they will be injury free, but we can use history to predict.
This team was 54-49 last year before they were overwhelmed with injuries. They did not start the season with Ohtani or Upton. Upton had the worst year of his career. They had the starters in baseball. The bullpen was overworked and overused. We add three pitchers that did not pitch for the Angels last year, Ohtani, Teheran, and Bundy. They may not exactly strike fear in anyone’s heart, but they have to give us more than Cahill, Harvey, and Barria did last year. We also add Joe Maddon as a manager and Callaway that worked with the Indians pitching staff a few years ago with great success. I have plenty to be excited about as an Angels fan. No team has exactly had a successful past decade except for the Giants, and they are not exactly killing it right now.
Yeah most teams do take flyers at the back end of the rotation.
The Angels take flyers on every starter, big difference.
Who are there 1 and 2 starters again? Lol
Since you keep posting the same garbage. I will post the relevant stats again.
Last season Teheran had a 119 ERA+, 19% better than league average.
Last season he had a 2.7 WAR, 12.5% better than league average.
He had a 3.81 ERA vs 4.33 league average for starters.
He allowed 4.17 RA/9 vs 5.05 RA/9 league average for starters.
He allowed a .229 BAA vs .249 BAA league average for starters.
He had 174.2 IP, 36.2% better than league average for starters.
So he was more effective and pitched more innings than the average starter, in other words a #3 starter, in the NL.
Every single year he outperformed the so called ERA predictors like FIP, xFIP, and SIERRA. That shows clearly that those “predictors” were wrong about him.
In everything that matters, in other words the ACTUAL stats, he was better than average.
Are you going to continue to be a troll or are you going to actually try to discuss baseball intelligently for a change?
I don’t think we can blame the fans for hoping for the best from their teams,…. at some point we all do.
Of course they’ll hate. That’s what people do when they have nothing constructive to do.
True. It cracks me up. Typical troll reply: “I disagree! Do you even watch baseball?”
Because there are a lot of people on this site that don’t watch baseball.
Good signing Angels! Can’t stand the Angel’s, but their moves this off-season have been alright so far. Ryu would be the cherry on top! Doesn’t have to relocate. Same fan base. Should really make that happen. Would make for an interesting division for sure! They’re in an unenviable position of playing in a division where nearly every team is competitive. They’re due. Especially with the best player in baseball.
Great pick-up for the Angels. Exactly the type of low-risk, high-reward signing they needed for a #3/4 kind of guy. Not the “ace” people are hoping for, but still better than any pitcher we trotted out last season. Grab Keuchel or Ryu, and the rotation looks pretty good. Not spectacular, but solid. Our offense on the other hand… THAT could be spectacular.
Guaranteed innings.
The bar is so low for Angels pitchers… just give us 170+IP, 20+ QS, sub 4.00-4.50ERA. 27-33 starts.
I think the bar for every 5th starter is pretty low.
Can Tehran play 3rd base?
No. Bur Rendon sure can.
The AL’s gonna light him up…
The NL East teams he faced last season hit better than the AL West teams he will face. So what makes you think he is going to get lit up?
im officially done thinking the angels are gonna sign david price, they arent, ok, moving on..
David Price is not a free agent so they cannot sign him
i know but they can get him in a trade because the red sox are shining neon lights at teams that hes available and as much as a dislike him, hes better than julio Teheran, i think the angels plans are really just have medicore pitching and just bash themselves into a division race, hell it worked for the Yankees last year they missed the world series by 1 game with an awful pitching staff by hitting home run after home run, they only lost because their pitching blew it at the end.
Lol, the Angels dont have one starter as good as Tanaka or Paxton. Hell, German could be their ace.
Of course that doesn’t even factor in the Yankees great bullpen, which you just ignored while comparing the teams.
There is a reason the Angels won 70 games, stop living in denial.
@boogaloo Teheran (3.81 ERA, 119 ERA+,2.7 WAR, 174.2 IP) was as good or better than Paxton (3.82 ERA, 116 ERA+, 2.2 WAR, 150.2 IP) last season and pitched against tougher teams than the Orioles, Blue Jays, and Red Sox. Teheran was considerably better than Tanaka (4.45 ERA, 100 ERA+, 1.7 WAR)
Is it hard to be so consistently wrong about everything you say?
BUT, the WAR, FIP & xFIP of Teheran is worse than both Tanaka and Paxton, and it doesn’t change the fact that he is right as it pertains to last year’s rotations. Nonetheless, I think Amanda is painting with quite a broad brush to compare both rotations and the assertion that the Angels could “mash” their way to the ALCS and a possibly the WS.
Yankees are much better overall, and certainly were last year. You spoke of injuries and Yankees had the most injuries in the league with 32, I believe. Boogaloo brought up relevant counterpoints to Amanda’s over-generalizations of both teams.
Regardless, Koamalu, you countered with stats, and I like that. Many just resort to insults and you challenged from a position of knowledge and information – good job.
Showtime Ohtani might be the starter that could be better than one of the Yankees starters If Ohtani returns to form he’s definitely better than a couple of the Yankee starters
Ohtani hasn’t shown anything other than “potential” so far in his whole 51 innings of MLB work…..and his Japanese workload was far below MLB standards as far as games started with his high being 24 games started (I believe in 2014)…..22 started was his next high water mark and it goes down dramatically from there.
He may seem to be a decent hitter, but if you’re hoping for a “return to form” then your going to be pretty disappointed when you try and match him up against even 3rd starters on all the top teams. Tanaka is the Yankees 3rd starter and there’s no match there at all….He may match up better though against the Yankees 4th and 5th guys!
The “showtime” Ohtani train just ain’t that impressive!
Good deal for the Angels. Low risk innings eater for 1 year.
Julio is streaky. He will have stretches where he is brilliant, followed by rough stretches. Take the good with the bad. When he is on he paints the corners as good as anyone, and that is very fun to watch with the movement he has on his pitches.
Pitching as the Braves’ #1 never really did him justice. Taking the mound as a #4 should enhance his overall numbers.
For those who clearly didn’t watch many Angel games in 2019…the Angels were 54-50 on July 26th, then they played a 16-inning game against the lowly Orioles and lost. The recent (07/01) death of Tyler Skaggs and the 07/12 no-hitter in his honor, all of it came to a crashing hault and they were exhausted. You could see it. The team stumbled to a 16-36 record in the final 2 months. This is not meant as an excuse, this is an explanation of why 2019 ended as 72-90 and barring any unforeseen 2020 tragedy (fingers crossed), there is hope for 2020.
God I’d be way more disappointed in a team that got tired two months early than one that just played poorly.
Go Orioles.
That may be the single dumbest comment I have seen on this thread and that is saying a lot when we read your other comments.
The Angels best pitcher died, 3 other starting pitchers and 2 starting position players went on the DL for extended stretches after that, and the team played poorly the last 2 months.
“That may be the single dumbest comment I have seen on this thread and that is saying a lot when we read your other comments.”
Then maybe you’ve misread them as well, because you seem to have misread this one.
“The Angels best pitcher died, 3 other starting pitchers and 2 starting position players went on the DL for extended stretches after that, and the team played poorly the last 2 months.”
Yes. Exactly. The team had setbacks both tragic (Skaggs’ death) and more commonplace (a bevy of unfortunate injuries). These setbacks coupled with poor performance explains their record. We literally agree.
My issue was with the idea that the team was “exhausted.” I disagree with that as an explanation. The OP seemed to frame it as a comforting one but I think chalking the team’s performance up to exhaustion gives the Angels less credit.
This is a team that really wants to turn it around. They are taking good steps to doing that. Let’s see how it plays out in 2020. Good luck to them.
Fantastic pickup for angels. They got the best bat on the market and now the opportunity to revive a solid still young pitcher. Great bounce back candidate and if it works out they can QO next year or trade for assets. Or it doesnt work and its only $9 million one year.
R U kidding, this guy is at the very least ‘serviceable’! 2-time all-star and his worst year by far was 2017’s 4.49 ERA(which qualifies as a quality start in today’s game 6IP 3ER 4.50 ERA) Had one other subpar season and that was the one sandwiched between his 2 all-star seasons and on the heels of his career-high 221 IP age 23 season! Not to mention getting out of hot, humid Atlanta into the ocean air of Anaheim…this is a perfect 1-year flyer guy! Doesn’t mean it’ll work out, but no big whoop with just a 1-year deal!
Meh. He’ll be okay as a #3 or #4 starter as long as he gives the Halos 30+ starts, 180+ IP with an ERA 4.50+/- and keep them in games. But the team needs a lot more to be in contention – someone like Keuchel/Ryu and trade for another arm.
Right now the rotation would be consisting of Ohtani, Heaney, Teheran, Bundy, Canning. Besides Ohtani, everyone else would be a #4 or #5 starter on any other club.
He won’t be dominant, like he was in 2014, but he’ll do alright and if I’m right about that his numbers would be ace-like compared to the crap they got from their starting pitchers this year.
Especially Jaime Barria, Jose Suarez, Dillon Peters, Matt Harvey and Trevor Cahill, of course.
Good signing can’t hurt the angels rotation
Flashes of Matt Harvey
If only they were at all similar pitchers!
The angels appear to be like just an ‘ace’ away from being legitimate contenders next season. They have a pretty solid/deep rotation now with the addition of Teheran – and I guess you could make the case that if Ohtani comes back strong he could become the ‘ace’ they need. But they’re looking pretty good. I’m impressed with the off-season they’re having. Who knows maybe they’ll do the Red Sox a big favor and trade for Price to be their ‘ace’ haha – would be a good move for the Red Sox, not sure it’d really be the ‘ace’ the Angels need but he would be a decent addition to their rotation if they did make the move.
Well, if you’re basing your counting on Ohtani being the Angels “ace”, you might be mightily disappointed….as he has a whole 51 innings of MLB work, and never started more than 24 games in a season (unaware of any post season stats) in Japan, with his next lowest starts at 22. and falling from there.
Generally, a teams Ace should be the front guy of a rotation taking the ball once every 5 days…..Ohtani so far is a curiosity in that he is the only 2 way player in the majors which attracts a lot of attention….but doubt that any of that attention is going to be commented on how he is the “horse” of that rotation or its Ace!
Until the Angels can out perform both the A’s and the Astros, who do have top tier rotations and well put together overall teams….the Angels will just be potential contenders but most probably pretenders!
I can tell you’re not an angels fan. So… why are you here? To troll, I assume. Get a life.
Go Cubs Go
Last year Teheran gave up 3 runs or less 25 times out of 33 starts-they are quality starts. Furthermore, he gave up 1 run or 0 17 times, and some here want to criticize his ability and talk about sabermetrics as the final word on him? In the starts where he didn’t perform well he gave up 5, 6, and 7 runs. So you tell me, do you want a guy that gives up 3 or less 25/33 and 0/1 runs 17/33. He pitched very well for Atlanta, and those that say otherwise are contradicted by the aforementioned outings. I am not asserting he’ll do the same for Angels but he’s certainly not the worst pitcher you can have in your rotation. He’ll be a very good 4-5 and he’s a workhorse.
While I agree that Teheran could be a solid #4 or 5 starter -my anger with this team is that they didn’t need another 4 0r 5th starter but front end pitching .
Balking at paying Cole 35 million for 6 plus years I would agree with but how the hell does this team lose out on Keuchel and Ryu ??? I would have taken both for a salary that together combined match Coles but we would have gotten two quality pitchers .
We sucked in 2017 and answered in the off-season signing two clowns , Harvey and Cahill . IT was NOT a answer and only the blind would have thought those two would help push the Angels into the post season .. I will say this now – signing Teheran and Bundy is more of the same .
How can they willing to spend so much cash on Rendon – claim they want to get Trout into the playoffs and respond with Bundy and Teheran signings? ??
They aren’t a cheap organization -but they clearly haven’t seen that pitching is required in abundance to make a team successful .
If the Angels passed on Rendon and signed Keuchel and Ryu instead I would say the team is much better overall going into 2020 . Same money spent but spent on starters . I would have set my mind on passing on the expensiveCole – but must sign two of the following : Baum , Wheeler , Ryu or Keuchel .. THATS a starting rotation you could think wild-card at least .
Solid points, Voice. My Mets did something similar. They had a slot in the rotation open and it was the biggest hole on the roster, the one that offered the single greatest possibility of adding a significant number of wins. And with pitchers like Hamels and Keuchel going for an 18m AAV (for which the Mets could surely have signed Wheeler at the ASB, had they judgment to trust), they instead signed Porcello and Wacha for a range including incentives from 13m to 20m.
It defies reason. The Mets also needed relief depth the way the Angels need starting depth (in addition to actually good starters), and in an offseason where Joely Rodriguez and Junior Guerra are going for a 2.5m AAV, they added… no one. In fact it was only by adding so much chaff this offseason that the Betances signing could finally made sense. The hole they dug was so deep that they finally needed to take a shot in the dark in hopes someone like Betances would have a career year.