Super-talented, MLB-ready 22-year-olds don’t grow on trees. If you do happen upon one, what are the odds they perfectly fit your roster need and contention window? Viewed from that perspective, and accounting for the context of MLB player valuation, the $50MM risk the White Sox took on Luis Robert is a slam dunk.
Of course, all of that guaranteed cash is payable over a six-year term — the precise amount of time the club could’ve enjoyed him in the majors even without promising another dime. And it could’ve been nearly seven full seasons with a bit of service-time trickery. So, the South Siders are only gaining control over one or two seasons of would-be free agency. (Which is it? Depends upon one’s cynicism levels. And the as-yet-unknown question whether Robert will need to spend further time in the minors once he reaches the big leagues.)
Presuming the options are exercised, the deal maxes out at $88MM over eight campaigns. And that’s on top of the $26MM that the team spent just to lure Robert into the organization in the first place! Compare that to Mookie Betts, one of the game’s most productive younger players, who just secured a record-setting $27MM salary for his final trip through arbitration. The Red Sox and Dodgers got 6+ seasons of Betts for a total cost of about $60MM in salary.
Now, there’s inflation to consider. Betts’s earnings wouldn’t have been nearly that robust had he debuted six seasons earlier. If Robert can produce something like Betts, he’ll surely out-earn Mookie. And the White Sox are picking up one or two added seasons of control, which could be quite valuable. We know how much the Dodgers valued the chance to control Betts for just one season, even while paying him a big salary. Again: if Robert has a career path of that kind, then those option years will be an enormous boon to the White Sox.
The thing is, it’s not really reasonable to compare Robert to a guy like Betts. Can he perform to that level? Sure, he’s considered one of the very best prospects in all of baseball for a reason. But that’s hardly the likeliest outcome. Even putting aside the question of talent and production, there are numerous hiccups that can stall a player’s arbitration earning power. Carlos Correa is only earning $7.4MM in his second-to-last arb-eligible campaign — less than half of what contemporary Francisco Lindor will earn ($16.7MM). Rewind two years and these guys looked like a coin flip on value. As it turns out, Correa dealt with ill-timed injuries that significantly dented his ability to earn via arbitration.
Running the numbers, it’s hard to imagine you could really go much higher with an up-front guarantee for a pre-MLB player — at least, perhaps, unless the team was able to pick up yet more future control. The Robert contract, which tops the White Sox’ deal last year with Eloy Jimenez, included a pretty hefty premium to achieve cost certainty and some added control (along with, perhaps, the ability to promote him on Opening Day 2020 without concern for service time). That said, the White Sox have an excellent track record with extensions, having achieved big value in the past with players such as Chris Sale and Adam Eaton.
How do you view the deal? (Poll link for app users.)
If Robert plays to his potential, he’ll be underpaid considering what other young studs earn in arbitration.
Unlikely. Very few guys eclipse 30 million in arbitration.
Luis Robert won’t be underpaid in arbitration unless he’s Mookie Betts. The value is in his option years. Come on ChiSoxCity get your head out of Jim Thome’s behind for a second!
Don’t forget, the contract and control becomes a little shorter and more expensive- should this season be lost. You hate to see that misfortune happen to such a ‘generous’ (lol), owner as Reinsdorf. He’ll probably ask for monetary relief from pres.
Very true.
This season could screw Reinsdorf significantly on the deal. Could take half or the whole year away for Robert. The White Sox don’t get that year back. But they’ve already paid for it.
@jbigz12
You mean the whopping $1.5MM Robert’s on the hook for this season? Somehow I think JR’s going to survive that massive hit.
Very small minded view you have there. If Reinsdorf didn’t extend him already—this year wouldn’t have counted as a major league year for Robert.
This contract gives them 8 potential Robert years. If this takes one away—that’s 7 years.If they manipulated his service time and waited 2 weeks they would’ve had 7 years of control over Robert and not have had to guarantee a penny.
If the season is completely cancelled the deal effectively becomes 7 years for 88 million dollars. (Assuming they exercise the options) there’s no f’ing way he would’ve gotten 88 million dollars through the arbitration process.
Do you see the potential screw job now, buddy? You’d think I was personally attacking the White Sox…..I’m just breaking down the reality.
It’s not the WS FO fault—no one anticipated a pandemic cancelling baseball. But if it does happen—it bones the ChiSox significantly with Robert.
Spoken like a true Cubs fan.
Well let’s break this down. Let’s just apply typical arbitration values with a little increase for time. And let’s assume he’s a super 2 which he no doubt would be. And let’s assume there’s a shortened season this year.
2020 – 600k
2021 – 600k
2022 – 5 mil (maybe 4)
2023 – 10 mil
2024 – 16 mil
2025 – 21 mil
That equals around 52 or 53 mil. 88-53=35.
So they bought out the first two years of his FA for 35 mil (17.5/per) AND it’s an option. Those two option years will be huge. It’s not a total bargain, it’s a fair deal. But if he becomes who they think he is, that 17.5 mil for 2026 ad 2027 will be huge when his peers will be making 30 mil / per easily with inflation.
Joe—this is wrong.
You can’t assume he’s going to be a super two and tell me you’re buying out 2 free agent years. It doesn’t work that way. When you tell me a player is a super two that means the team gets him for essentially 7 years. (Minus 2 weeks of a season)
An 8 year deal means you bought out 1 year and 2 weeks of service time.
Hmmm. I don’t think that’s correct. If you bring a guy up on day one, he is a super 2 and only has 6 years of control. The part you’re right about is the Sox would never do that.
Let me correct this…
2020 – 600k
2021 – 600k
2022 – 2 mil
2023 – 10 mil
2024 – 16 mil
2025 – 21 mil (this is being very generous)
That 50 mil. So they bought out a year of FA for 38 mil? Is that right? I’m not pretending to know everything. I’m just trying to spell it out. Also, based on inflation, my numbers are probably very generous but let’s assume he doesn’t quite live up to expectations.
Yeah, I screwed that up again. That’s only 7 total years Sorry. Someone with a better grasp on contracts and arb values should spell it out like this. That would tell the story.
Let’s say Mookie Betts is an example for Robert. We’ll forget inflation because there’s no telling Robert will be quite that good anyways
Betts received 60 million over 7 (he’ll probably receive less because this season may be shortened but we’ll assume it isn’t for this exercise)
spotrac.com/mlb/los-angeles-dodgers/mookie-betts-1…
His salary breakdown is right there.
Betts actually was not a super two. That’s my fault. He just missed the cutoff.
spotrac.com/mlb/chicago-cubs/kris-bryant-14057/cas…
So take a look at Kris Bryant instead. Bryant will make 45 million dollars total through his 6 years. He has one year of arb left. (The White Sox just guaranteed 50 million to Robert for those 6 years)
Let’s just assume he gets a Mookie Betts level 27 million dollar salary next year. He may or may not but let’s shoot high here.
That would put him at 72 million over 7 years.
If Robert followed that path—the White Sox would’ve bought out an additional year for 16 million bucks.
That’s why if this season is not played—that this deal turns out to be a big stinker for the White Sox.
He would’ve been optioned to AAA and had not accumulated a year of service time.
Obviously with the valuation I just laid out there— if there isn’t a season this year—Robert wouldn’t have made that much through the arbitration process. The White Sox would effectively pay 7 years for 88 million dollars.
Obviously that isn’t on the White Sox FO. Robert’s on field production could be “worth” much more than 88 million over those 7 years but with the way the arbitration system is set up—there’s no way he would’ve gotten it. (Just like Lucas Giolito was “worth” way more than the league minimum this year) There’s no way he would’ve gotten it and you wouldn’t have had to guarantee a dime if he flops….
@jbigz12
Fair points, but this assumes nothing gets changed to the arb process when the current deal expires in ’21. After the Bryant fiasco and the subsequent time manipulations by GM’s (Hahn being one of them), it’s a very good guess the rules will change to the arb process.
For example, what if the arb time gets shrunk to 3 or 4 years before players hit F/A? The Robert deal could really look good for the Sox if he pans out.
Obviously I’m not part of the negotiations, so I don’t know what changes will be made. But changes that are made will probably make the numbers you listed above become moot.
Yeah I mean I don’t see anyway in hell it goes down to something ridiculous like that. The owners might have to give a year back so it’s 5 or 6 instead of 6 or 7 but there’s no way they’re going to give that many years back to the players. Hahn didn’t see a pandemic coming—not many did. The extension was unfortunately bad timing. Not quite as bad as the Mookie Betts deal but it was still pretty bad if there’s no baseball this year.
Unfortunate, but true. This was also Robert’s cheapest year in dollars on the contract. Sp it wouldn’t be as if Reinsdorf got to not pay Robert 20 million dollars if the season is canceled. He’d only save about a million bucks off the total deal.
Just a personal opinion on the CBA if the season is cancelled……
I believe that the next CBA won’t be as drastically different as everyone had thought. I have a strong feeling if there’s no baseball this year—the two sides are going to be trying to get on the field. There might be some sense that it wasn’t so bad the way it was before. I just can’t see player control being the sticking point it may have been previously.
You have to remember the major league players in the MLBPA are largely no longer impacted by service time issues. I would imagine any change to service time would be applied to MLB players that come up in 2021 and after. I doubt after a season where players made half or potentially very little of their salary that they’ll be concerned about bargaining for the rights of rookies. They just sold the 2020 draft class down the river with the shortening of the draft after all….
If club control gets reduced by a year that won’t stop GM’s from manipulating service time. If anything it will make them do it more. Because that one extra year will be closer to the player’s prime and will be a greater percentage of their total club control.
Yeah but that’s a moot point though. It still impacts the contract valuation. Making it possible to have only 6 years instead of 7. Or 5 if you choose to not manipulate. Either way it changes things significantly.
ChiSox You are the guy in a recent post saying that the Sox giving away Marcus Semien was no big deal. Lol.
Spoken like a true White Sox fan
Padres, can you read?
agreed
The Sox are building a culture that shows young players they’re valued members of the team, not just commodities. This is risky for so many reasons, but the biggest I can think of is the negative feelings some of underpaid guys who produce will have when some of the highly paid guys inevitably washout.
Exact opposite. They hold service time over their top player’s heads, to force them into signing away contract years.
They did it with Eloy. They did it with Robert. They are doing it with Madrigal. They completely treat players like commodities, instead of focusing on player development and winning games now.
Though I suppose you could counter by saying if a player knows he’s comfortably locked in to a hefty salary it puts the financial issues to bed and allows him to relax and focus
Or get complacent.
This is just stupid. No onw held a gun to anyone’s head to get them to sign.
@maximumvelocity
Eloy’s still guaranteed $45MM and Robert $50MM (not counting the $26MM they already paid him). Neither can exactly cry poor.
Gamble with any amount of money but you can go all in and sign Chris Davis. Perfect example of a early career signing that failed was Allen Craig. Both signings would cripple a-lot of clubs but the Davis signing would cripple any club.
I’m not so sure the Craig or Chris Davis comps are really fitting. Craig was never a top prospect like Robert was and the Davis contract is twice the money as the Robert deal. Robert is going to strike out a lot though, but his speed and defense should help carry the weight if he falters.
Worst case scenario, Robert’s money won’t cripple the Sox. The thing that nobody ever mentions is that all these extensions give them the ability to plan long term and keeps them from getting hit big in arbitration like Betts or Price. It’s about stability.
The deal was a reflection of how the White Sox would rather pay people who have potential to under market deals rather than pay a player what he is deserved on the open market.
Rick Hahn is the worst of the service time manipulators, and was hanging that over Robert’s head like he had with Eloy.
The strategy may play out in the long run, but it’s also an indictment of how poorly they have located and developed talent over the last several years. Once they identify any player who might be good, they extend them out of fear of losing them years down the road. Eye is always on saving money in future, not winning games now.
Were I Robert and already had big signing bonus money, I would have waited and bet on myself. That said, nobody forced him to sign. And for those who think that service time played a huge factor, he gave up an additional year of control by signing the deal, quite possibly at a steep discount. As for value, yeah, he has plate discipline issues, but those can be corrected and with his speed and defense, he has a relatively high floor.
Since these players have already been singed to massive IFA deals, they might not feel the need to try to make as much money as possible and instead insure against a possible bust. Without the early-career extension, if they busted, they would earn way less money over their career. That’s the trump card in Hahn’s hand that convinced them to sign the contracts, ever if they could have possibly made tens of millions more on the open market in the future.
Is Robert going to be the next Betts? Does he have that kind of talent? No. Not close. So paying him $26 million and then guaranteeing $50 million more all before he steps foot on a major league field is incredibly risky.
This is born out by the fact that top prospects flaming out in the majors is common.. Only 1 in 5 prospects in the top 100 become average or better regulars in the majors. Of #1 overall prospects in the game since 1981, only 33% have played above average baseball in their careers.
Koamalu, I have to disagree. It’s unfair to compare Robert now to Betts now. Compare Robert now to Betts at age 22.
But I completely disagree with your statement about 1 of 5 top 100 prospects becoming average. That simply isn’t true and it’s also totally irrelevant. It’s irrelevant because Robert isn’t a top 100 prospect – he’s a top 5 prospect. Back in the past, prospects didn’t often pan out. Scouting and analytics have made the process much more reliable.
You’re comparing Robert to the wrong class of people
What the f. Uck kind of stats are you throwing around? There’s literally different prospect rankings depending on the source who ranks prospects. They also get updated multiple times throughout a season. Anyone trying to quantify the number of top 100 that bust is typing up non factual garbage.
Prospects bust. But those numbers you just threw out there are complete junk.
33% of #1 become “average or better” Since 1981. I don’t really care much about 1981 personally. Let’s take a little closer look.
Here’s are the last #1 prospects per MLB.com. This is back to 08
Wander Franco x2
Ohtani
Vlad Jr.
Moncada
Buxton x2
Profar
Sano
Trout
Stras
Price
Jay Bruce
Not sure what you consider to be “average” either. You give me hard figures for a bust rate (which I’m not quite sure how you could possibly calculate that for a top 100 list) but then just say “average” performer. So I’m not real sure.
This deal is obviously risky. It could be a homerun if he’s great. You get an extra year for next to nothing. The added years give you additional leverage to tack on another extension if it works out. Luis Robert is different than any “#1 prospect” That’s a very blanket statement—I’d be more concerned about how his tools translate rather than looking at top prospects of all sorts empirically.
Ah, so Captain Ackchyually shows up.
Roberts k to walk is horrible. He is athletic but not yet a pure hitter. I pinned him going back to the minors this season for more work. Once he improves on his k to walk, he will be worth the money.
He’s how old? Young players with his kind of talent adapt rapidly, so it’s pointless to focus on walks, but that’s what fans do. In any event, wait until he has 500 at-bats before judging what he can and can’t do.