When live Major League Baseball resumes, what kinds of experiments might we see? What will the offseason look like? How will the coronavirus affect the 2021 season? Today, I make my MLB Trade Rumors video debut in a discussion about these topics with Jeff Todd.
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This is the Marlins, Orioles, Tigers, Pirates year!
Shortened season anything can happen.
They can’t lose 100, so they have that going for them.
Challenge accepted.
Nooo! More than likely those teams will lose 10 games in the first two weeks and be almost mathematically eliminated. Remember because it’s a short season you usually see good teams run off early 12 and 2 Mark in their first 2 weeks and that means in a long season it is somewhat meaningless but in a short season it may be a title
The Diamondbacks win it all. Only team with a home field advantage…
In a sandbox.
How would sports be more important over people’s health?
Seems to be a lot of selfish people in the Phoenix market.
Same ones hoarding the TP
Same ones that watch and believe, Fox News.
The Gullible ones.
What’s your take on the virus then? It doesn’t exist? It’s just a flu? While I’m well aware the media blows fear stories out of proportion … you have the acknowledge the fact that this is a really serious issue
MSNBC is no better.
Fox is nothing except a vehicle for the ultra rich and greedy, to “hire” their “media mercenaries” to deliver deceitful lies – to fool gullible, less informed, lazy people, to vote their “political mercenaries “, into office.
Prove it, bone. Make us believers.
That’s gonna be the ALCS and NLCS. Both go 7 games both have walk off wins to win the pennant
Hey Tim – I line with this comment, which teams do you think benefit most from a shorter season? I assume a lot of double headers and day/night splits.
I think a Cactus/Grapefruit thing actually adds to baseball interest for a year. New rivalries/competition.
Salaries would be tricky and require negotiation. You couldn’t play an 81-game schedule without gate revenue and pay guys a full half of their salary for example. Team payroll would have to be a percentage of TV revenue.
It all seems doable to me if lots of concessions are made (if not sold).
If you’re referring to the 2020 season, salaries have already been worked out:
mlbtraderumors.com/2020/04/mlb-player-contracts-in…
so if they play any of the season they still only get the agreed to percentage? I thought that was just during the pandemic lockout … If they play say 81 games wouldnt they be entitled to 50% of their salary? Currently theyre being paid what? 4%?
That’s correct…if they play 81 games this year, they get 50% of their salaries.
I don’t think they’ll get full pro-rated salaries. Almost 40% of an owners take is from the gate, parking and concessions.
I don’t think so, Tim. That agreement didn’t consider games without gate revenue. You can’t simply prorate a $20 million salary and pay $10 million for 81 games in front of empty bleachers.
Basically, ticket sales are a third of revenue. Parking and concessions are another 10 percent. Therefore, teams would be operating with only 57% of revenue. A player with that $20 million contract would have to be willing to take just $11.5 million as a base salary for 162 games. That would be less than $6 million for 81 games.
If players didn’t agree to a massive pay cut, baseball team owners would lose a couple billion for the 2020 season.
There’s no cut. I believe players get paid by the number of games played (excluding injuries and days off).
Am I correct on this?
Not sure but think I read somewhere on this site that there are provisions in the CBA for shortened seasons with regards to payroll. I am sure MLB and MLBPA have been discussing this just like the other leagues have.
LOL Thought I remembered right. I got interrupted while typing this and Tim backed me up. Tip of the cap to ya TIm!
I don’t think any new rivalries are going to be formed from a shortened, radically changed season, if anything interest is going to decrease because the actual rivalries will be ignored in that scenario. That’s the most exciting regular season baseball games for a very large percentage of fans.
i imagine it will be the same as the other leagues are suggesting. they wolnt let this year affect next year. and if its a vaccine we need than it will good well before then.
I think it’s overly optimistic to think the ’21 season can be completely normal. It’s entirely plausible that we might not be mostly vaccinated against COVID-19 until fall 2021.
On a different note, Taiwan started their baseball season today with actual game(s) and robot fans.
It’s April of 2020
that might be the projected date by which it would be ready, but people will need to get it and it wolnt be at once most likely. i think though we can still get everyone vaccinated earlier though. 12-18 months is likely the standard response by a doctor on how long a vaccine must be developed for, but if things break right you might be able to get under that, and the immediate demand could see things pushed along a little quicker. most of the delays are probably just beurocratic tape anyway, so if they are willing to cut some of that tape we could see things develop much quicker on that front, such as how the H1N1 vaccine did.
Didn’t know Tim was a wild Pokémon.
You released a lot of talent today. But the referee? C’mon. He has been there forever
commenter used grammar check!
it wasn’t very effective…
Very informative post, Tim.
82 game season. Grapefruit/Cactus League replaces AL/NL for one season. 3 division winners in each league with one wild card team, no wild card game. No All Star game. Optional DH for games in “NL” parks. “World Series” played on neutral site (Omaha?) To mitigate cross country travel
Grapefruit League Divisions:
Atlantic
Blue Jays
Mets
Phillies
Red Sox
Yankees
East
Nationals
Orioles
Pirates
Tigers
Twins
South
Astros
Braves
Cardinals
Marlins
Rays
Cactus League
California
Angels
Athletics
Dodgers
Giants
Padres
Midwest
Brewers
Cubs
Indians
Reds
White Sox
West
Diamondbacks
Mariners
Rangers
Rockies
Royals
It could work
Phillies and Pirates should be in same division. Rangers,Rockies,Royals Midwest division.
Tim: it is being reported tonight that Jeff Wilpon told Governor Cuomo that in order for the 2020 season to take place, the players are going to have to agree to reduced salaries to offset the lack of ticket sales. I can’t see the MLBPA ever agreeing to something like that.. I would like to hear your thoughts on this matter.
Thoughts: Wilpons are hacks and no one else takes them seriously. If i was Cuomo id block his number.
Of course the MLBPA would agree – they’d have to. The owners will only agree to playing in empty parks if they don’t lose money by doing so.
The agreement between the PA and league so far has salaries prorated for games played. Owners going back on that part of the agreement and demanding players take additional pay cuts will not fly.
Safe to say Wilpon expressed the sentiment of every owner.
They aren’t the only owners stating this. The PA will have to cave or expect no more than the 170 million already agreed upon ( and no games ).Which is about 200K per player on average.
An interesting wrinkle that is on the back burner- what do you do the with the minor leaguers ? Stash them on the back fields to play intra- squad games instead of their regular schedule ? For enhanced social distancing you could limit the number of players at the complex at once and lockdown the ones who won’t be playing that day at the hotel.
Now some Spring Training stadiums have two tenants. To take care of any scheduling conflicts I wonder if they might consider using some former Spring Training ballparks that are still standing. Kino Stadium (Tucson) is a long way from Phoenix, but it could host some games. Perhaps ASU, Grand Canyon, and U of A would consider timeshares ? Some community college fields could even be used. If they’re playing in front of no one the options are many.
You mean 2022
I think the players will be millionaires and the owners billionaires no matter the conclusion of this drama. For the fans sake I hope they get back on the field, reduced pay or otherwise. There are plenty of regular Joe’s itching to get back to work that would do similar (I hear those filing for unemployment are being as asked to apply at walmart and amazon ). I imagine the same is true for baseballers. I imagine that there are quite a bit of players who love the game and want to play no matter the circumstances.
Unless they have to be quarantined from their families.
I bet they will introduce premium viewing where the viewer can pay more to watch a better product. That could possibly increase TV revenue. MLB Network should offer all teams no black outs.
Maybe we are looking at this situation the wrong way. Why not an Arizona League that features minor league prospects for each club only? Why not 40-man rosters that can be comprised of developmental players from the entire organizations?
Advantages::
No union for team owners to deal with.
Manageable salaries … in fact, team members could enjoy a substantial raise in pay.
TV rights could be negotiated for this “special” season
Future major leaguers could continue to develop
Instead of a season that features only major leaguers … a minor league season only.
To be honest, the Marlin Junior Varsity team would probably be better than the major league team..
Unfortunately there will be no season that resembles any kind of normalcy. Players already agreed to 170 million for not playing so why would any of them risk their health for more money? The h1n1 flu death rate per million infected was 200 while the CV has a death rate of 45,000 per million infected. Even mlb players realize no amount of money is worth the risk.
Handing out team-themed face masks at the gates instead of bobbleheads and other promotional items could be part of the new normal.
Pitchers and catchers report to spring training on feb.17.
I love 16 inning games. Why do we want to eliminate the outliers of baseball? That’s what makes the sport unique.