With this year’s iteration of the MLB Draft, which will begin on Wednesday, comprising just five rounds instead of the usual 40, there’s some thinking that teams will prioritize college players, about whom more is known and who tend to come with more certainty. And while we won’t know for certain until it all plays out next week, here’s the latest on several AL teams’ thinking as the truncated draft approaches.
- The Mariners are said to be once again targeting collegiate pitchers, writes Greg Johns of MLB.com. Jerry Dipoto’s club holds the sixth overall selection, and has six total picks in the draft. They’ve been linked to the likes of Emerson Hancock, and to a lesser degree Max Meyer and Reid Detmers—all college hurlers. But if infielder Nick Gonzales, widely regarded as one of the premier talents in this year’s draft class, falls out of the top five, Dipoto may deviate from that preference and nab the New Mexico State product. If the M’s do indeed opt for a college pitcher in round one, it would represent a continuation of the strategy the Seattle front office has employed in the previous two drafts: in 2018, the Mariners chose Stetson’s Logan Gilbert at no. 14; last year, they grabbed George Kirby of Elon at no. 20.
- Bryan Hoch of MLB.com is hearing that the Yankees could go after a position player with their first pick and pitchers in the later rounds. Due to the Gerrit Cole signing, the Bronx Bombers forfeited their second- and fifth-round selections, meaning that they’ll only make three selections on draft day. Per Hoch, they’ve been connected to shortstops Nick Loftin, Ed Howard, and Carson Tucker as candidates for the 28th-overall draft choice. Loftin is a Baylor product, while Howard and Tucker both come from the high school ranks. In Anthony Volpe and Anthony Seigler, Brian Cashman and company have targeted high school position players in the first round of consecutive drafts.
- The Rays have been one of the better (or perhaps, luckier) teams when it comes to finding Major League talent in the late rounds of the draft, but of course they won’t have much opportunity to continue that trend this year, given that they’ll only have five rounds (six selections) to add talent to their already-loaded farm system. As Marc Topkin of the Tampa Bay Times writes, the consequences of the shortened format might be magnified for the tight-budget Rays, who are especially dependent on the draft—even the later rounds—for rounding out the organization. One example of that is 31st-round selection Kevin Kiermaier, whom MLBTR’s Mark Polishuk covered earlier today. All that said, Topkin believes the Rays likely won’t alter their philosophy of hunting for the players with the best overall chance of impacting the MLB club, with little regard for position or age.
I could see Gonzalez being available to the Mariners because none of the teams ahead really need middle infield prospects.
I’m not too sure about that. These players are so far away, it’s not really that wise to draft based on needs at this time.
I tend to agree. I think the top four go Torkelson, Martin, Lacy, and Veen. That leaves at least two of Gonzales, Hancock, and Meyer available. I think I’d lean towards either pitcher over Gonzales but I like Gonzales too
What if Veen withdraws from the draft?
Why would he do that? He’s a top ten lock and likely top five guy. If he did he’d be walking away from almost $6M to either go to JC for a year to get similar money or wait three years to get similar money. Both assuming he doesn’t get hurt and develops in the college environment.
There’s 0 reason for Veen to drop out. He has so much helium right now, he’s likely a top 5 pick.
Hell yeah, I am pumped for the draft, Blue Jays’ first top 5 pick in over 20 years.
And I want to see if a first baseman will really go number one overall, it’s like a kicker or punter going number one overall in the NFL draft.
Not exactly an apt comparison.
A closer going first overall would be a better equivalent to a kicker.
Plenty of 1B in the Hall of Fame. Not a lot of kickers.
I suspect you will see more then a few players sign for $20,000 and they will be for teams like the Braves, Dodgers and Yankees
Why those three teams? Wouldn’t players be inclined to sign with teams that provide opportunity and development programs as well. I don’t think any teams really have a big advantage as it’s likely going to be a limited number of guys that actually sign for those bonus amounts as any guy with options or upside likely waits a year
I agree most will. But those teams have always been proactive ( especially the Braves) and found guys who will sign if not drafted.
The list is larger than 3, but if you had identical offers from NYY and Balt.. you’re really going to go develop in Baltimore?
A 6th rounder, 1st overall… he’s signing in Baltimore. That’s Why 5 rounds favors the elite development teams and the teams willing to invest in the farm beyond just a bonus pool
Doubt it. 20k?
Guys can go overseas and make more for a couple years then sign anywhere they’d like for millions instead of signing away 5-7 years for 20k.
Plus college players can go back.
Gonzales likely isn’t going top 3 with Torkelson, Martin & Macy almost locks in those spots. The Royals could take him at 4, but they could also take an outfielder or a pitcher. The Blue Jays aren’t drafting Gonzales at 5 if he falls there. The Jays already have a surplus of infielders. They’re going to take a pitcher or an outfielder. It isn’t that much of a stretch to see Gonzales fall to the Mariners at 6 when there is likely only one team in the top 5 considering him
Gonzales could end up in the outfield.
Regardless, teams typically take the best player available with their first pick.
Gonzales is a great player, but as a Blue Jays fan, I’d rather see the team draft something other than an infielder. If Veen is there, he’s a no-brainer pick because outfield is the biggest weakness in the Toronto organization. Otherwise, adding another arm makes more sense to me than another infielder because you can never have enough pitching.
As a fan you should want a team to take the best talent available regardless of position because the best possible talent is hopefully a major league player and by the time he reaches the majors, the big league roster will likely have totally different needs.
Again don’t worry about position, take the best player.
And you can always trade that player for an area of need if necessary.
Gotta take the best available.
You’re right Stevil. Draft the best player. A trade, a position change with a current major league player or a sudden emergence from a current minor league player are always in the cards. Blue Jays have already discussed the possibility of Biggio playing OF. Lots of pitching options could fall in Toronto’s lap. They tend to lean collegiate, but Atkins was convinced by a scout to take Bichette a few years ago.
Yikes that first sentence, is, a pain, to read
The entire draft structure is a fiasco designed to serve the owners in driving down costs. That, it will do, but a lot of baseball talent is going to be lost.
How will it be “lost?” They’ll go to college, not disappear…
Pursue other sports or decide to focus on a non sports career. Talent is easily lost
Really? If a high schooler wasn’t good enough to be picked in the top 5 rounds, chances are he was planning on going to college anyways. There won’t be much legitimate talent lost.
And quite frankly, if that’s the attitude they were going to take into professional baseball and be willing to give up so easily, they likely wouldn’t have made it anyways.
Plenty of athletes are split between football/basketball/baseball and small things can make them lean one way over another. If baseball is shortening the draft this year and next, suddenly there are less jobs so it makes sense to potentially go with a different sport.
Not to mention college seniors who normally would be drafted after the 5th round who now won’t. Who will likely seek other careers, when they could have continued developing in the minors
Now you have to go to college for 3 years, a JC you likely didn’t want to go.. when you may have thought you were signing for 100k. Or even 50k
It’s not hard to see many of those guys fall through the cracks
Saw Siegler play some last year. He’s got some promise. Was hoping to get a look at Volpe this year :(
He hit 221… I don’t consider that a diamond jn the ruff
Mets should look to draft collegiate pitchers. 3/5 of their current rotation can depart after 2020 with Syndergaard returning from TJs and no real call up candidates outside of Peterson, the Mets could restock that pitching depth.
Volpe and Seigler…the next two overrated Yankees prospects
wrong
When Moses climbed Sinai, he brought back a tablet that said “Thou Shalt Not Draft a Second Baseman with a Top 5 Pick”. Because of that , the Mariners will get Gonzo, who projects at 2B, and he’ll be the Gold Standard at his posistion for 10 years. 4-5 Gold Gloves, the same bat to ball as Martin, in-game skills that rival Pedroia.
The other guys? Ya, they’re fine. But the impact player in the draft is Gonzo.
I don’t know about gold gloves but I do think he will hit at the major league. I think the highest upside position player is Veen and the highest ceiling pitcher is Meyer. Both have something that keep me them out of the top three picks in Veen being HS player and Meyer needing s third pitch to be a starter.
Still severely overrating Nick’s defense. There’s a significantly better chance he’s an average defender at 2B than a Gold Glover.
As most of us know draft choices in MLB can’t be traded except competitive balance picks. The NBA used to prohibit trading #1 picks 2 years in a row. They get around that by drafting a player and trading him for another drafted player. For example, Chris Webber and Penny Hardaway. Used to be players drafted could not be traded until one year after the draft. Now they can be traded after the World Series ( assuming it’s played). So here’s my scenario- Detroit throws everyone a curve by taking Lacy or Martin. Orioles really don’t want Torkelson but Kansas City at 4 does. Baltimore takes Torkelson at 2 and KC takes Veen at 4. In the second round, KC takes a player the Orioles want. Since there is no minor league season, no risk of injury. After the season ( assuming there is one). Orioles trade Torkelson to KC for Veen and KC’s 2nd round pick. That way both KC and Baltimore get their man and Baltimore gets an extra player. Just something to ponder
It wouldn’t surprise me in the least if deals like this have already been agreed on. Add in that some teams (like KC with a new owner and the O’s with the MASN mess) will likely be in a cash flow quandry no matter what happens this season.
Expect to see some (I’m not saying a lot) trades involving “Players to be Named” when the transaction embargo is lifted, with some of those PTBNL being guys that are picked Wed/Thur.
Ya, I know it’s against the rules…lots of things are against the rules. And some things are against the rules for some teams and not for others .And I anticipate that despite the embargo, deals, not involving the draft, have already been agreed to; they’re just waiting to announce them. I expect an EXTREEMLY busy transaction wire in that period between “practice” and the start of the “regular” season.
MLBTR, get ready……..
New to the draft I see. Nice to see new fans. Here’s how the draft works. If a team wants to save money, they get a agreement with a player before the draft below slot bonus. How do they do that? They pick a guy who was not expected to go that high. They can also used the money saved to go over slot in other rounds that way it’s like they got 2 or 3 first round talents but got them cheaper.
Rays likely won’t alter their philosophy of hunting for the players with the best overall chance of impacting the MLB club
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I never understood why writers include sentences like this. Are there teams out there that hunt for players with the ‘worst’ overall chance?
High school players. Hs have greater upside but also greater chance to miss entirely. I suspect that’s what that means.
Strategy or no strategy so far it looks like the Mariners have made a couple of pretty solid 1Rd picks the last couple years. Granted both players have only had a season in the minors to showcase their skills — but the M’s have to like what they’ve seen thus far from the two pitchers. I’m sure they’d be happy to draft another P who goes on to put up the kind of numbers those two have thus far in their professional debuts.
If I were the M’s I think I’d go with Meyer over Hancock. both could be solid selections but I think Meyer seems to have the better K potential
If both are available, Seattle would seem more likely to take Hancock. He has 3 plus pitches and his curve is now flashing plus. I think the reliever-risk with Meyer would put Seattle off.
I think you’re right. Hancock has the higher probability of being a starter and could be a true top rotation arm. Meyer may have a higher ceiling but the lack of a third pitch makes him riskier
They should take the BPA. If that is the player with the higher upside and a good probability to reach it, then they should pick that player.
I really dislike this 5 round BS