The National League Central looks as if it will be the most wide-open division in Major League Baseball when the regular season opens in a few weeks. Minus the Pirates, who figure to contend for the worst record in the league this year, it appears anyone could take the Central. The Cubs, Cardinals, Reds and Brewers were all playoff teams in 2020, and only five games separated the division winner (Chicago) from the fourth-place finisher (Milwaukee). This past offseason would have been an opportune time for any of the Central’s teams to establish itself as the clear front-runner, but it doesn’t appear anyone separated itself from the pack.
The Cardinals made the biggest move in the division over the winter when they acquired third baseman Nolan Arenado from the Rockies. But other than that and re-signing right-hander Adam Wainwright and catcher Yadier Molina, they were pretty quiet.
The Cubs worsened their rotation when they traded away 2020 NL Cy Young-contending starter Yu Darvish to the Padres in a deal that netted them fellow righty Zach Davies. They also reunited with righty Jake Arrieta, who once won a Cy Young in their uniform but has since devolved into a back-end starter, and swapped out one flawed corner outfielder (Kyle Schwarber) for another (Joc Pederson).
The Reds said goodbye to last year’s Cy Young winner, Trevor Bauer, who signed with the Dodgers. They also cut ties with two accomplished relievers – Raisel Iglesias and Archie Bradley – though their bullpen did gain Sean Doolittle, Noe Ramirez and Cam Bedrosian. On the position player side, it doesn’t appear they adequately addressed shortstop, where they ranked 27th in the majors with 0.1 fWAR last year. Barring last-minute changes, they’re going to rely on some mix of Kyle Farmer, Jose Garcia and Dee-Strange Gordon, which isn’t particularly reassuring.
The Brewers, meanwhile, have reeled in two high-profile free agents in recent weeks, having signed former Cards second baseman Kolten Wong and ex-Red Sox outfielder Jackie Bradley Jr. At the very least, they should give the Brewers a pair of average regulars, largely because of the outstanding defense they typically provide. The Brewers are also getting back Lorenzo Cain, who sat out most of last season, and he’ll join Bradley and former MVP Christian Yelich in what should be a strong outfield.
Aside from Pittsburgh, FanGraphs’ preseason odds give every team in the division a realistic chance at coming out on top. The Cardinals, Brewers, Cubs and Reds are all projected to win between 78 and 81 games. Which of those four do you think is the favorite?
(Poll link for app users)
Duh, the answer is ovbisous. It’s gonna be the Pittsburgh Pirates.
Led by MVP winner Brian Goodwin and Cy Young winner Tyler Anderson, the Pirates shattered all records imaginable in 2021, going 162-0 in the regular season and 11-0 in the postseason. Truly an incredible run, the greatest in sports history.
(wakes up)
“Oh come on-“
Cub big boys all playing for the big money this year. Cubs should win in a cake walk. No disrespect to the Cardinals Pirates Reds or Brewers.
Also Cub supporting cast will be a force Happ Contreras Pederson Heyward all get on base and Cubs should have a lot of fun this year. And I think their pitching staff is pretty good.
@ PeteWard8,
In the long run guys playing for their stats and contract doesn’t win. Guys doing what they can to help the team win each day does.
Reality has to be dejecting – and obvious – to Cub players. Theo is out. There is only money to retain a part of the team past 2021. They’ve lost their top pitcher and others this offseason as the franchise is going through an obvious restructuring. I’d suggest that the Cubs stand a far better chance of trading away veterans having good seasons approaching the deadline then winning the division.
Most teams hold money and prospects in reserve for the stretch run. It’s hard to envision the Cubs compromising their future by throwing away money and prospects to pick up veterans in an attempt to make one last run in 2021 for what at best will be a 1st or 2nd round loss in the playoffs.
Samuel- Cubs best team in division and their best players are motivated. I’m talking about winning the NL Central and nothing else. Nobody cares about Theo.
I’m not even a Cub fan.
1. The players care about Theo because it caused what happened to the Cubs roster this offseason and what will happen during the coming season. Players don’t see the guy that ran the franchise for years suddenly leave, and not be affected by it. Anymore then employees at any job that see the head person leave after 10 years. They know things are going to change.
2. The Cubs will be sellers at the deadline. I think most players know it…..most agents….most local sports people…..and most of their fans…..although I doubt most will acknowledge it publicly. At least one of their so-called star players will have a major injury and / or have a lousy season, That will be the excuse to sell. They have 2-3 guys that if they stay healthy and are having a decent season will be attractive to contenders.
Simply put – the Cubs roster is screwed up between free agency coming for some, not enough good young talent to refuel for 2022, and bad contracts still on the books. They are in a bad situation and if they don’t act during the season it’s going to get far worse – i.e. thinking they can retool on the fly will lengthen their downturn. Not unlike the situation Theo left in Boston.
All true
Theyve got no pitching. Dont worry if you’re a cubs fan, losts of $ ready for next season.
Right, tear apart the 4 player core that are still in their early prime (28, 29 and 32) and that has lead the team to the playoffs 5 out of the last 6 years knowing that they are the best at their positions in more than 2 generations of Cubs players.
With the current payroll more than 30 mil below the luxury tax level and Kimbrel’s 16 mil a year coming off the books at year end and Davies’ as well, there is more than enough room in the budget to extend all 4 of the core.
Finally, with young players like Happ and Hoerner already at the ML club and additional young pitching and position players like Marquez, Abbott and Davis coming up in the next year or two, the future is nowhere as bleak as the picture you paint.
Your comments sound like the views of someone who dislikes the Cubs plain and simple.
No way Cubs are breaking this up when they are in first place. They will extend/re-sign who they can or use the qualifying offer.
This will not be a cake walk for any team. I think it goes down to the last week. Now , I’m a Reds fan and I’ve always been a glass half full guy… I think the day to day lineups of the top 4 are close enough to come down to pitching. If I had to pick how the finish would be I’d go Cards, Cubs/ Reds a game a part , Brewers, Pirates. However , any order of the top 4 would not surprise me.
If any player is left off from extension by season begining they will be traded by Aug 1 if losing. Given a QO if they are competing.
Jed has been transparent with this and has said that he wants to negotiate extensions in S/T with his core. If they can not find a solution and it remains unresolved then it becomes a business decision not a fan based myth solution.
I’d also add that I would take Sonny Gray and Luis Castillo over anyone in the NLC top 2 … but then it gets murky.
Guys playing for their stats and contract DOES win. Better stats produce more wins obviously.
Stop being a fan boy and realize that baseball is a business. The Cubs have not one decent prospect in their system that is ready to make a major in impact in the next two years for them to keep the all of these aging guys around after this season. Theo traded away the Cubs best minor assets in the last few years.
Hey I’m not out. Just chilling backstage
Brennan Davis says hello…
And within two years, the Cubs will have a top-5 system. Book it
What are the “bad contracts” other than Heyward? His is “bad” but not limiting in the overall scheme of things. He and Hendricks are gone after 3 years, and Hendricks may well “earn his pay.” Heyward probably won’t but he’s not a dead weight in 2021.
The expiring contracts after this year don’t add up very much – total loaded payroll is less than $150M.
Other than folding AT HOME in the WC playoff, the Cubs had a good 2020. If the “good” players perform, they can beat out the rest who have done little to improve themselves.
Cubs won’t win for another 100 years.
BVT – Marquez, Davis and Amaya are all on the top 100 ML prospect list and project to be with the ML club in the next year to 2 years. Theo didn’t trade Happ, Hoerner or Alzolay who were all top prospects and are now at the ML club level. Sure Theo traded away a couple of talented prospects who are now at the ML level but he landed Chapman, Arrieta, and Strop in trades that directly led to a WS championship. And as far as “aging guys” 3 of their 4 core players are 28, 29 and 29 this season. What do you want, a team of all under 25 guys who have no experience at winning at the ML level? Your comments are from the tiring group think where only under age 25 up and coming stars matter.
Who cares chisox_fan they won one in my lifetime . Been a while for White sux and drought will continue .
The Cubs won the division last year but not by a ton. You can’t subtract a guy like Darvish after his end of 2019 and season of 2020 and expect it not to hurt. Maybe they get more from Bryant or someone else but it’s no cakewalk. I admit to being a missed Cards fan but if Arenado can help protect Goldy and Cardinals could actually score some runs they have just as good of a shot their pitching is stronger in the rotation as well as bullpen. The Reds have little chance. Losing Bauer is a crushing blow. Brewers will be good defensively but still not much pitching. They’d need a monster year from Yelich. I liked Wong but to paint him as a big acquisition is over the top. The Cards declined his option for a reason and he ended up getting in two years what his option was worth in one. He never developed much of a bat. But none of the central teams will make much if any noise in the playoffs. The Dodgers just keep getting better, Padres went all in, Braves are still really good with a young core only improving, and the Mets did all they could to make the NL East a dog fight. Don’t see any wild cards from the central this year being back to regular playoff format.
The pirates weren’t even given the dignity of being included in the poll lmaoooo
They were the given. The others are who may sneak in past them
Me opening this article “I wonder how many votes the Pirates will get” … “never mind then”
The Pirates are not on my poll? What is up with that? I thought it was Spring Training and everyone is equal…yet, the Pirates are not even ‘Chopped Liver’? May the Curse of The Three Rivers be on those who shun my 11 year old self’s team…The Maz and Clemente are watching…they know the outcome will be a Rings in Pittsburgh…
Ahahahahahaha! Oh, you’re serious?
No, it was fairly obvious that he was being facetious. Maybe it is more obvious to those who recognize some usernames on here and. their manner posting
Pirates, the 2021 Mighty Ducks of the division.
I’m going Brewers. Just a hunch. Nobody has a dynamic rotation but if Hader is typical Hader, the Brewers lose fewer games late than anybody else.
I know the smart money is on St. Louis, but the Brewers are a live dog.
That’s great .. if they can get to Hader…
True. There’s the problem. The offense will need to be in far more nights than not.
miffed MLB.com gave the Reds better WS odds then the Phillies…
I think that is mostly due to division difficulty. Phillies are a better team, but Cincy is in a much weaker division. Winning the division versus a one game wild card game….
Even getting to that one game playoff will be tough coming out of the East.
Reds were the paper champs last year too!
Go Cards!
Two much pressure no way
2nd best team in Missouri. 2nd best team in central
Royals? Lead by Matheny? That’s hilarious.
Imagine if the Pirates somehow win the division and we weren’t given the option to choose them here
Lol
Milwaukee by 2 1/2 games
Using the immortal words of Lou Brown I say the Buccos: “The press seems to think that we’d save everyone the time and trouble if we just went out and shot ourselves. Me, I’m for wasting sportswriters’ time. So I figured we ought to hang around for a while and see if we can give ’em all a nice big shitburger to eat!”
In the immortal words of Henry Hill (Liotta) to Tommy DeVito (Pesci),
“You’re a funny guy!”
Using the immortal words of Jack Nicholson , “ You cant handle the truth”
Using the immortal words of Dean Wormer: “Fat, drunk and stupid is no way to go through life, son.”
You trying to say Jesus Christ can’t hit a curveball?
I went Cards. I think that the Reds will give them the most competition
The cheap butt Cubs will win one more time before giving it up for A & AA players no pitchers in that group
Yo mama got a cheap butt
Cubs ain’t cheap. Just being strategeric
Sounds like your parents were the same with your education…
Very “strategeric”…
Lets Go Bucs!
Polanco MVP
Keller Cy Young
Hayes ROY
Hayes is the likeliest of those 3….the other two are slightly more likely to win the power ball (exaggeration for effect).
Voted for the Cardinals. Hated myself after.
I fill you lol
Please dont fill him
I LOL’d so hard I almost pissed my pants.=)) It’s 2 am and I just got home from a very late and long shift and I haven’t laughed that hard since I woke up.
Lmfao same here, that was funny af lol
One of the girls I use to work was an original Spanish speaker. There was nothing wrong with her English, other than she was still translating in her mind.
Anyway, I don’t know if she meant to say “I cannot stand that man’ or “I cannot stomach that man”, but she yells out to the group of us “I cannot swallow that man”.
She was one of us, and really cool, but we busted chops for years after that.
And that’s why I picked brewers
Cubs Brewers toss up. I know the Cards got the best player avail. Still don’t see them in first.
Cardinals 89 wins
Brewers 86
Cubs 80
Reds 71
Pirates 43 (Top 3 draft pick. Tigers and Orioles finish worst in the league)
So you think the Pirates will lose 119 games?
63 wins is more realistic for the Pirates. Would not be shocked to see them win over 30 games just against division rivals.
The Pirates lose 119 games and only get top 3 draft pick? Wow.
Reds going 71-91? You funny
Brewers 87 wins
Cubs 85 wins
Cards 84 wins
Reds 83 wins
Pirates 56 wins
I agree
Don’t underestimate the reds
No team is running away with it
I see the Cardinals as the only competent team in the NL Central. Teams like the Cubs, Brewers, and Reds are in for a rude awakening this year when they have to play teams in other divisions than the two Centrals
Four teams can win the NL East, and other then the NL West the other divisions are pretty wide open.
With the exception of the Dodgers and Padres, all MLB teams have major holes and questionable depth to plug them.
The Padres have plenty of holes. Their lineup is rather ordinary after Tatis and Machado. Whoever you consider being their third-best player would be way down the list in Los Angeles or Atlanta. Depth matters. The best two teams in the National League are the Dodgers and Braves.
Agreed in that I don’t think the Padres depth matches the Dodgers.
As for the Braves, I called them as division winners for 3 years. But this year I’m beginning to sour on them some. They’re gong to miss Mankakis for his steady play and his influence to minimize the hot dogging that many of their players put ahead of winning. I love Pahe in CF on D, but Ozuna is a poor armed butcher in LF, 3B is unsettled, and while d’Arnaud is a nice offensive C his defense is spotty and his game calling and work with a pitching staff are not good. Love their bullpen (have believed Jacob Webb will be a dominant closer at some point), but other than Charlie Morton who knows from one week to the next what you get with those starters…..and what happened to all their young, can’t miss starting pitchers from 2-3 years ago?
I don’t think the Braves fall off a cliff, but they do have holes. Maybe they get plugged. But going into the season, I’d take the Padres over them. Thought I’d never say this, with with Girardi as manager and DD filling the roster, I’d say the Phillies have less holes and more upside then the Braves.
I expect Albies to explode in ’21. Acuna, Freeman, and Albies as a big three can come close to stacking up to Betts, Bellinger, and Seager. The difference is that the Dodgers have a deeper lineup. They also have Smith, who I expect to be as good as any catcher in the game in ’21. That CF/C edge the Dodgers have is unmatched by anyone, which is quite an edge. Two positions that are short on star power these days. The White Sox might be next in line at those spots. Who else?
The key for the Braves is Soroka being healthy, which is expected to happen. Terrific pitcher, the ace on staff that also has Fried. A solid team; the class of their division, I would say fairly easily. As a Dodger fan, I fear them the most because of the two pitchers and them having more star power than the Padres, who need that third guy to emerge.
Btw, I live in the Philly area. The Phils are better than some people seem to think. The concerns are CF and rotation depth. Moore was an interesting signing; finally, a lefty starter. Wheeler and Nola can make them dangerous in a short October series. I still like Atlanta better.
The CF thing is overrated…..
The Phils play half their games in a bandbox, and a good portion on the road as well as the NL has built more small parks. There’s not a lot of ground to cover. Haseley and Kingery can share the position as stop gaps until McCutchen’s contract is up at which point they’ll move to LF and DD can find a full-time CF. Those 2 are not gold glovers, but they’re not stiffs either….and Haseley can develop into a solid OF for years to come.
This is laughable, Samuel. Phillies having more “upside” and “less holes” than the Braves is just not true.
They have a lot of issues with their pitching, especially starting pitching. Their offense MIGHT able to hold water, but I could argue the Marlins may sneak up on Philadelphia. I’m not willing to predict the NL East yet, but Philadelphia and Miami are definitely ending up in the lower half of the division. Neither team will compete with Atlanta, New York, or Washington this season.
Hot-dogging, as you refer to it, has no effect on winning or losing baseball games.
@ Hammerin’ Hank,
Really?
Did you see the guy that jogged down to 1B in a playoff game carrying with his bat in his hand because he thought he hit a HR. Ball hit the fence and bounced back. Guy got a single for what should have been a double or triple. Didn’t score. Team lost by one run. Manager blew his fuse,
A PLAYOFF GAME!
And I saw Braves players do similar things during in-season games.
Did you ever play or coach baseball? Watch many games?
P.S. I saw Hank play. He never jacked it. Especially in the WS.
@ Nam0806;
Everyone has an opinion. And that’s great.
It’s a long season. Front offices constantly make moves. What looks obvious in Spring Training looks dumb by mid-summer.
The Phillies made 3 great moves the past 2 years……
1) They brought in Girardi to manage.
2) They dumped MacPhail and his wide-eyed statistical protégé.
3) They brought in Dave Dombrowski to run the organization and oversee the ML roster.
With the way pitchers change year-to-year the Phillies starting staff looks no worse to me then the Mets (sorry, but Stroman is inconsistent and Cookie is past his prime…..although if healthy he will be decent) or the Braves. Only the Nationals are better, and their top 3 is the best in MLB going into 2021. The big edge the NL East contenders had on the Phillies at the end of 2020 was beating up on their horrific bullpen. Dombrowski has restructured that on paper pulling in some solid veterans, and I’m sure he’ll be making moves during the season to continue to improve it. Fixing the bullpen makes their starters better. The #4 and 5 starters in MLB today only need to get through 4-5 innings before the bullpen takes over. And when you talk of pitching, look at the Catchers. They call the game and handle the staff. Realmuto is the best all-around Catcher in MLB today, and arguably Knapp is the best back-up Catcher. Pitchers have gone out of their way to compliment both of them.
In short – the Phillies now have proven baseball people running that organization. Throughout the past 5 years MacPhail and Klentak had a disconnect with what it takes to build a winning ML team. Their extended rebuild was a media hit but a underperforming mess in reality. They wasted too many draft choices and developed too few players for what was put into that rebuild. Now the payroll is maxed out and the heavy lifting is in progress. Girardi, Dombrowski (and Fuld) are up to it.
Brewers
Cardinals
Cubs
Reds
Pirates
Big ol’ Brewers fan here. They are getting absolutely slept on this year though they have a solid squad nonetheless. Their pitching isn’t as stereotypically bad as it normally is with Burnes and Woodruff leading the underrated charge. They also have the best 1-2 bullpen punch in baseball with Williams and Hader. Not to mention a lineup that – while it isn’t a powerhouse – has all of the components of a functional lineup. Speed with Cain and JBJ, power with Hiura, Narvaez, and Vogelbach, and one of the all around best hitters in baseball with Yelich. This is going to be a team that just clicks. 2020 was a hurdle for them, but you’re gonna see a 2021 team that has both coherent play and coherent management leading the charge.
People also sleep on the Brewers because they judge them using traditional thinking. “These players are the starting pitchers. This player is starter at this position.” The Brewers don’t do that. They mix-and-match and double switch and players play multiple positions in a game on a regular basis.
The Brewers will also get back to running. From 2016-2019, the Brewers finished in the top three in the NL in SB. In 2020, dead last, 29th in MLB. With the return of Cain, and adding Wong and Bradley, that’s changing back.
People are also looking at the offense from last year and thinking that it will be the same this year. There was just far too much out-of-the-blue regression. Here’s the career season BA for one of their main players: .267, .277, ..275, .278, .176. I have a hard time believing that him hitting .176 over 40 games is his norm, rather than the .276 he hit over his previous 353 games. For another, Yelich dropped over 300 points in his OPS. Even gaining back half that puts him in the top 15 in baseball.
It’s a three team race (sorry Reds, you’re back in fourth, where you belong) with the Cubs needing a good start to avoid a teardown (at least partial) at the trade deadline.
Count me as impressed Rangers29–
Most non-Brewers fans haven’t a clue of this teams potential, especially with their ridiculously underrated pitching. Last “season”—2nd in NL fWAR, 4th in FIP, 2nd in K/9, and not only is everyone of substance back, and this is the KEY—all but 2 (Suter-32,Lindblom-33) are smack dab into the middle of their prime.
The 2 best PRIME AGED starters in Woodruff and Burnes, who both will challenge for the CY over the next 3-5 years head the rotation, with one of the hardest to hit pitchers in the game-Freddy Peralta-just now entering his prime(24) and poised to join the aforementioned as dominant SP’s in this teams rotation. Houser, now past his little 10 start hiccup, the one with the best sinker by statcast run value at 3/4 starter, Lindblom, he of the 3.80 FIP and 10.3 K/9, and Brett Anderson, the veteran 4.20 ERA for some innings. Then they have 5-6 more competent or better starter arms also rostered (Lauer, Suter) or stabled at AAA (Small, Ashby, Bettinger).
Then onto the best bullpen in baseball—tandem arms will be utilized to varying degrees throughout the year, with Suter and his fastest in baseball history pace, frustrating and annoying hitters in 2-3 inning outings, Lauer paired up with a RHS, Drew Rasmussen who’s getting stretched to pitch multiple innings with his 99mph FB and 4 pitch mix, paired with a LH. Angel Perdomo, a LH, 12-14 K/9 arm and his improving command should also finally find his way into the pen, Ashby and Small both LH, after a month or 2 or 3, should be 2nd tandems and paired with RHSP’s, then we get to the unhittables—Justin Topa, Justin who?, rabid Cardinals fans should know who he is, since he was unleashed on that team with his 100mph exploding sinker that statcast measured as moving more horizontally than any sinker at that speed in baseball. Who also happens to have a SL that also has more horizontal break than any SL in the game.
Then there’s Devin Williams, he of the 98mph FB/unhittable air-bender CH, that K’d nearly 50% of hitters he faced last year. And finally we get to Hader, the best bullpen arm in baseball over the last 3 years.
If this staff had an offense that was substantially above average, which they don’t seem to have, they would run away with this division. But that perceived lack of offense could get bolstered at the trade deadline, which would then not only propell them to the central crown, but make them a team no one wants to play in the postseason.
Most Brewers fans are. Big. And old. Have you seen the Heffers at Cheese Curd center
Theo—Enjoy your re-build. Couldn’t happen to a better fan base.
Cardinals most overrated team in mlb.
They need Goldschmidt to be elite. Just a hunch that doesn’t happen. I also think they’ll miss Wong more than many fans realize. The outfield is muddled; age in some key spots. I’m bullish on Baez and Bryant rebounding for the Cubs, which to me will decide the race.
Cards or Brewers: whomever’s starting pitching develops and holds. I think the Brewers can be sneakily good *IF* Woodruff & Burnes develop into 150-180 inning starters this year. Cause the back end of their pen is going to be deadly. The Cards have Flaherty and a bunch of depth guys.
And don’t forget, both teams are going to have the Cubs and Pirates to FEAST on.
I’ve heard from Cards’ fans that Dakota Hudson is supposedly the next best thing, but I’m not sure if that’s still feasible. I’d like some input from Cards’ fans on that topic.
Dakota Hudson is out this year with TJ, also at best he’s a solid #3 to moderate #2. Maybe you thinking of Jack Flaherty?
No, I was thinking of Dakota Hudson lol. I’ve just heard Cardinals’ fans rave about him, so I was curious. Totally forgot the fact that he had TJ though. Hope he recovers well.
I read that the Cardinals are projected to have the 3rd hardest schedule this year.If they make the post season they will have to earn it!
Bad year for the Pirates to be so bad in the worst division
Cards 88
Brewers 83
Cubs 82
Reds 78
Pirates 62
True that is unlucky. Were really good when every other team was great, now incredibly bad when every team is ok.
I’m not seeing how Chicago “worsened” their rotation in the San Diego trade. Davies is a solid pitcher who at age 28 is entering his prime. The older Darvish had an outstanding short season but it’s unreasonable to expect him to replicate those numbers. It’s certainly conceivable that Davies has the better 2021 as he is coming off an excellent season himself.
The Cubs, meanwhile, have the division’s best starting lineup if Baez and Bryant rebound. That’s likely since both are under 30 and have histories of performing at an elite level. My guess is the Cubs win the Central by 3-4 games.
The Cubs lineup is probably the most overrated in baseball… and if not, it’s definitely the easiest out. They won’t hit enough to compete.
How is it overrated? They have a former MVP and a former MVP runner-up who are still young and coming off terrible short seasons. They also have Rizzo, who finished #4 in the MVP voting twice and is capable of better production. I would bet on all three to have a strong ’21, especially considering their contract status. They are proven high-end players as is Contreras. That gives them a leg up on the other lineups in their division.
Come on. I’m a Cubs fan. Davies is a good pitcher. Darvish was great to end 2019 and carried into 2020. But it’s baseball and Darvish struggled adjusting to Chicago. It is quite possible that Davies isn’t much of a downgrade but nobody would take Davies or Darvish as a pitcher..
Darvish is certainly more talented than Davies but looking at the 3 seasons Darvish was a Cub, he was paid $50 mil for a 15-14 record. That’s a way underperformed.
Yeah let’s judge a pitcher by his win/loss record like it’s 1920 or something.
W/L does indicate something particularly on a team that has been to the playoffs in 5 of the last 6 seasons. Looking a little deeper, Yu was 1-3 with a 4.95 era in 2018, 6-8 and a 3.98 era in 2019 before he finally had a top of the rotation type of performance in 2020 which is what he was signed and paid to do. Those 3 seasons costing a total of $50 mil is a pretty bad return on investment. At least signing him as a FA didn’t cost any prospects. I hope he performs better for the Padres.
It’s more likely you’ll see Davies with an ERA closer to what it was in Milwaukee (3.80 plus) than the 2.73 it was in San Diego.
Davies is a nice pitcher, but he’s a mid-rotation guy that will give you a few more good outings than bad.
Davies is nothing special, just an ordinary innings-eater.
The Reds…they still have strong pitching, even after losing Bauer.
Who is after Castillo and Gray – Mahle, Miley and Antone? That isn’t terribly imposing. Backend of the bullpen other than Garrett is question mark. Can you count on Doolittle? Votto has badly regressed, who is the SS – I can see this team being pretty bad.
Mahle as a 3 is better than most teams have. Sims is the best arm in the pen and Antone is a hidden gem. Lorenzen is really good too. Offense was historically unlucky last season so even without upgrades Suarez, Moose, and Castellanos should regress to the mean and hit much better. They’re a very flawed team and decided that they are going to avoid playing with a shortstop but they’re right there with the other 3 teams
Antone is gonna be really good in the 3rd spot. Miley if healthy is a reasonable 4 or 5. I think for the fifth you have several options including the possibility if hunter greene or nick ladolo. There is also the possibility they could look to deal or sign for another pitcher depending on how they do to start. They obviously just didnt wanna deal the house or hurt the team in the long run by giving a ton of money to bauer. . Farmer looks improved at short. Garcia may improve and be able to hit this year in the majors. India looks good and they could look at moving guys around. I think the reds will be very competitive in this division.
I looked for The Who Care button, I couldn’t find it. If their GMs and owners didn’t care, why should I? Did any team in that division try to get better?
Technically the Brewers didn’t lose anybody of importance and added some guys who may combine for the same WAR as Arenado, and the Cards didn’t lose anybody super important either. Not the biggest upgrades but they’re there.
Losing Wong is important for the Cards, especially to a division rival. They’re also counting on more older players than other teams. For the Cubs, they just need a few guys to return to normal form. That might have happened in 2020 for Baez and Bryant had the season not been so short. If they rebound, it’s like adding two new players over the schleps who played SS and 3B last season. Rizzo and Contreras can bump it up a notch as well. It would not be shocking if that happened.
Have you seen Tommy Edman play 2nd base? He’s no slouch on defense.
Which older players are they “counting on” besides Molina and Wainwright?
I can easily name a dozen other teams in baseball who have more older players that they’re counting on.
Cubs only need half their starting lineup to return to all star form….hmmm ok, that’s definitely got a high likelihood of happening.
To me the Cubs lack the pitching depth and high end #1 type arms. Cards have a slew of pitchers but if Jack is inconsistent it will be hard to ask Waino to throw 175 quality innings. Joc is huge upgrade over Schwaber for defensive and base running. I think Cards depth pull it out in a long season.
It might be the hardest division to predict. There are quite a few players being counted on to rebound from poor seasons, along with teams trying to squeeze one more big season out of older players. Unsettled lineups, too. And we have no idea how the short 2020 season will affect pitcher durability as these guys look to ramp back up to their normal workload. I haven’t looked at early schedules, but a team getting off to a quick start over the first month can be a huge factor in that division.
Pretty likely one of these teams wins 90 games. They are playing each other for 72 of the games. Going to go with the Cubs, Cardinals then Brewers. Thinking Baez and Bryant bounce back and the team scores runs and adds help at the trade deadline. Reds seem like a potential mess. Pirates will be lousy but 65 win baseball bad..
If the Pirates and Reds are both a mess, it’s conceivable that a wildcard comes from the Central if the East teams beat up on each other enough. Having 38 games against those two teams is a chance to ring up a bunch of wins. You can almost see the Reds dangling the likes of Gray, Castillo, Garrett, Moustakas, and Suarez at the deadline. They’ll be like an expansion team. There’s talk of Kyle Farmer seeing significant time at SS.
The Cubs are already in a rebuild ….. They just haven’t bothered to tell the fan base that yet.
Im going with all the arms in STL but Craig Councell makes it tough tough tough !
Probably the best manager in the MLB currently, a nice blend of old and new School ideologies . Would really like to go there but there’s just too little depth/help on farm/willingness to spend to cover inj/slumps over the long haul. They’d have to run pretty clean and thats hard to do over 162
Little depth? I have to disagree. JBJ or Garcia is easily one of the best 4th OF in the game. Plus Tyrone Taylor is not a half bad 5th option. IF is a little tougher, but Urius is a nice backup IF option, and a former top prospect. Biggest hole is 3B, but if that proves to be true, I trust Stearns to fill that prior to August 1st. Brewers have plenty of pitching depth, especially in the bullpen and 4-5 young arms that will likely start in AAA but easily could be ready by mid season Can you explain your comment?
The Brewers have versatility in the infield, so “depth” isn’t a big deal. Shaw, Urias, Robertson (I think he makes the team over Taylor as a 5th OF) all can play at least replacement level 3B (at least that’s the plan). Heck even Arcia is getting time there this spring. And they can all play other positions.
Mix and match. Combine that with all the shifting the Brewers do and Counsell’s style of lots of double switches and position changes during the game
The fact that any of 4 teams can win this division shows just how much the NL Central has separated itself from the rest as the weakest division in baseball. None else close.
Cards by 10 games because the season hasn’t started.
Might easily be the worse division in baseball….
I’ll vote cardinals but could see the brewers handling it. The reds are the most disappointing team here. They had a decent team last year, but they only took major steps back this offseason. Never like to see that, especially from a team that’s been more bad than good over the last couple decades
Worst division in baseball… yet the majority of the NL divisional playoff teams came from the Central last year. Go figure.
I still say Cubs but I would not be surprised if it’s the Cardinals. They know how to sneak in there and steal the division.
I think it’s really sad and a slap in the face that the Pirates aren’t on this. No, I don’t think they have any chance but there’s five teams in the division and four listed. Why leave them out? That’s terrible.
Considering the surreal nature of this decade, so far, it should be Pittsburgh.
Not enough attention to what might happen on July 31. Which organizations, in an ultra-competitive division, are willing to splurge at the deadline? Doesn’t look like the Cubs will. Hard to see the Reds doing so. So take your pick, Cards or Brewers. The Cards are better, but the Brewers are sneaky.
The Cards have a deep enough group of starters and relievers to slog through the season and their offense has enough upside to win a bunch of game by a run or 2.
The Card will win 90 games and take the NL Central.
I couldn’t even name one player on the pirates…
Kebryan Hayes 3b Charlie Hayes son. looks like an all star
A year with limited pitch counts is going to play right into Craig Counsels hands. The Brewers have about a dozen MLB ready relievers, and the guys with options can be swapped easily throughout the year with short direct flights between Milwaukee and Nashville. With rebounds from a few regulars and vastly improved defense, the Crew will bullpen their way to 90+ wins.
Brewers have the best 1-2 starters in Woodruff and Burnes and the best two relievers in the division in Hader and Williams. If Yelich and Huira return close to their 2019 form, they have plenty of offensive firepower to win this division handily.
I’d disagree that the Brewers have both the best top 1-2 rotation and 1-2 bullpen options. I’d say they have strong contenders for them, but Williams needs to prove he wasn’t a flash in the pan last year (relievers are extremely volatile) and Woodruff/Burnes could be the top 1-2 punch but they have a total of 21 starts between them at the major league level. They’ve had strong debuts, but again it’s way to little to deem them the best 1-2 punch. Gray and Castillo IMO are the top 1-2 punch. As a Cardinals fan I’d love to say Flaherty and Wainwright are up there, but Jack has to prove he is more the pitcher to end 2019 than how last season went. Waino needs to prove he has another turn back the clock year left in him. If Reyes is healthy and is a starter I could see him being the Cardinals #2 by year end. The Cubs would be 4th in a 1-2 starter spot. The bullpen with it being volatile I’d say Hader is hands down the top option. If Hicks is healthy he would be the #2 arm in the central. Garrett and Kimbrel both are strong bullpen arms as well. As for #2 arms in a pen Williams has a chance to put the Brewers at the top no doubt, but so does Martinez/Miller for the Cardinals, Doolittle for the Reds, and Strope for the Cubs.
IMO the Division is close at the top with a dogfight for 1st, a dogfight for 3rd, and then the Pirates. Cards/Brewers fight it out at the top, the Cubs/Reds fight for 3rd.
Jmudd- where are you getting 21 combined career starts between Burnes and Woodruff? They had 22 between them last year alone (and Burnes wasn’t a regular starter to begin the season).
The big question to me is, can Burnes come anywhere close to what he did last season? Not so much that they lack experience.
That was my bad. Failed to see it was sorted for spring. I did think it was odd because I thought Woodruff had more. I knew Burnes didn’t have much starting experience so just took it at face value. Even still 13 career starts with a career 4.48 ERA isn’t top 1-2 punch stuff. He had a great short season, but lets see it over 162.
Burnes has the best “stuff” of any pitcher in baseball. 1 plus plus plus pitch (96mph cutter) another plus plus pitch (95mph SL) 3 plus pitches (FB-sinker-CB) and a CH that he worked on all offseason, that according to Narvaez who said after C his first bullpen with Burnes this ST, “it’s definitely better.”
Woodruff has almost 50 career starts, Burnes has 13…..quite a bit more than 21
I have it as:
Mil
StL
Cubs
With about 1 game difference between all of them. The Darvish trade knocks 2-3 wins off the Cubs. StL adding Arenado is largely offset by losing Wong & Miller. Mil, unless I am missing someone, added Wong, JBJ, while losing no one. I’d say it largely hinges on which Hader we see.. He was great for 1/3, awful for 1/3, and great again for 1/3.
Bad logic. Not only does it assume all teams were equal to begin with, but adding Arenado will have a much bigger impact than losing Wong and Brad Miller (who would have no position).
I didn’t assume that they were all equal to start with.
The Cubs won by 3 games, but swapped out Darvish for Davies and lost 2-3 wins.
The Reds finished 2nd, but lost Bauer, and two RPs.
The Cards finished 3rd. They lost Wong with a 1.3 bWAR, and let’s say they can replace Miller with Edman. They gained Arenado who had a 1.6 bWAR. That might result in an improvement, but I’m guessing not a major improvement.
Milwaukee added both Wong & JBJ. The gained more than StL did, but also finished two games back of them.
I would say, on paper, it makes them about equal, with the edge to StL. But I also think that adding Wong, and pushing Hiura to 1st, and adding JBJ to the OF, along with Cain, assuming he returns, will make this a top-tier outfield, instead of the #21 ranked OF they had last year.
Meh. Spotted Cow Stadium aka Cheese Curd Center aka Farmers Only Field will be filled to the brim with revelers who turn Petunia Pig Park into Wrigleyville North. Go Cubs Go, Go Cubs Go, hey Kenosha what do you know, the Cubs are gonna win today!
I picked the Cardinals because I’ve learned never to bet against the Cardinals until they’re mathematically eliminated. So many times they don’t look like the most talented team on paper but they always seem to find a way to surprise.
Surprise surprise Surprise. Gomer Pyle USMC
Thank goodness for the Rats. As a Reds fan we are unlikely to supplant them as the bottom feeder in the division. Nobody knows how our guys will do, predictions are useless. This team was put together in 2019 and is minus Bauer, R-Iggy and Bradley. The later two were good, not great. No telling how a normal length season would have gone with Bauer in 2020. Their replacements are good, not great. If Lorenzen comes through as a SP, which I believe he will as he has matured, the #3 and #4 roles in the rotation will be filled by him and Mahle. Not bad. Can Senzel stay healthy for a season? Can an acceptable SS emerge? No way to know. Anywhere from 4th to 1st in the division is possible.
Brewers pitching > Cards pitching
In the rotation, yes, assuming Corbin Burnes is for real.
Bullpen too. Better arms all around. And that’s even assuming Waino can go 34 starts.
Brewers pitching, Cardinals pitching, stumble and bumble.
Stumble > Bumble? Or Stumble < Bumble? So much suspense. 78 or 79 wins? Bated breath
Probably the Cardinals. They’re the only team that really made an effort this off-season. But I’m pulling for the Brewers to take the division and with it the inevitable first round elimination.
The Cardinals are going to win the National League Central Division. The Cubs are hoping that Kris Bryant bounces back so his trade value gets better by July. Chances are the Cubs and Braves are already in talks for Bryant but the return all depends on him, his health and performance. The Braves are a player or two away from beating the Dodgers in the a seven game series while a guy like Bryant can definitely bounce back in his upcoming free agent year batting in that line up around Acuna, Albies. Freeman and Ozuna.
The “Cardinals” way = third place
This is cute, Go Dodgers ^_^
cringe
Cubs Win! Cubs Win! Holy cow . x88.
Cue the world’s greatest pep victory fight song. Co Gubs Go, Gi Cubs Go!
The rest of the small market NL central teams can go pound sand, back to quilting in their quaint little Midwestern villages where no one stops except to gas up and buy little cat figurines. B1G market Cubs will blow them out of the water. Just you wait. Rickett$$$
Smoke enough crack before you got online today? Geesh
Fun fact: St. Louis is carrying a higher payroll than the Cubs this season.
Payroll is great, and I support clubs spending. It’s also about what you spend it on, though. Milwaukee will spend almost 60m less than the Cubs this year; and while I do feel the Cubs are better, the gap isn’t as significant as the payroll disparity.
The Cubs have had a tremendous run but they’re nearing that retool point. I don’t think they’ll spend to the point they can keep the current core together and add pitching.
I answered this question for everybody like a month ago. The Milwaukee Brewers will win the NL Central.
1. Milwaukee Brewers
2. St. Louis Cardinals
3. Cincinnati Reds
4. Chicago Cubs
5. Pittsburgh Pirates
Very Barry = Very Wrong.
I voted brewers because I thought it would be a different pick, very surprised no love for the reds.
This is how jt should be. The cards are prolly winning and brewers and Cubs right behind although I personally think Cubs are slightly better. Reds Def rnt winning. They lost so many ppl. Did nothing to get return. It’s more or less a 3 way race
1-Cardinals 93-69
2-Brewers 85-77
3-Cubs 83-79
4-Reds 79-83
5-Pirates 55-107 (worst record in the league)
There’s no way the Cards win 93 games. No team in the division will win 90.
Cards and the brewers could both win 90. remember they get to play the Pirates alot.
Pittsburgh will indeed finish at the top…of their second consecutive MLB Draft board.
Anything else and the season is a failure.
Cubs will win . Is there any question ??
No ma’am. Nothing to see here. Cubs in the World Series against the Yankees.
This Cub Fan says Mil, Chi, StL, Cin, Pit
I believe the Cubs will win and then tear it down no matter how far they make it in the playoffs…
st louis, not because they really won, the other teams defaulted
People keep sleeping on the Cubs. I think they’ll repeat. I also think this will be a winnable division by only 85-87 wins. Those big four are just gonna dogfight each other to death.
Best thing about this poll is that the pirates aren’t even an option
Chicago 82-80
St Louis 81-81
Milwaukee 81-81
Cincinnati 81-81
Pittsburgh 40-99*
Dodgers & Mets win W & E
Padres run away winners in best WC
Washington & Philadelphia tied for 2nd WC
Play 18 innings for play-in, Nats lose, of course
*Pirates quit after being eliminated in August
does it matter? the central sucks so hard (again) the winner will be quickly shut down in the first postseason round.
PECOTA says Milwaukee, probably shouldn’t doubt that.
I haven’t read all the comments so this may have been said before, but the Brewers pitching staff looks pretty tough. And they will be even better with Wong and JBJ up the middle. Also, I believe Counsell is a very underrated manager. He seems to have the players respect, never gets rattled and expertly handles the pitchers.
Others teams may look more talented on paper, but somehow the Brewers are always competing for a playoff spot.
It’s hard to pick the Brewers, but I wouldn’t write them off.
The Reds are the underdogs only because of Bauer? that makes no sense. I can see them surprising a few. Bottom line they have to hit this year.