Jake Arrieta signed a one-year, $6MM deal with the Cubs last month, returning to the site of his Cy Young Award-winning prime years. Arrieta’s initial great run in Chicago could have been cut short, however, had the Marlins been willing to include J.T. Realmuto as part of a trade package with the Cubs in 2014, The Athletic’s Ken Rosenthal writes. The Marlins weren’t in contention in 2014 but were looking ahead to build for 2015, eyeing Arrieta as a big rotation piece. It was known at the time that the Cubs were floating Arrieta on the trade market, perhaps looking to sell high after Arrieta had turned his career around after previously being dealt from the Orioles to the Cubs.
Interestingly, Realmuto was not regarded as a blue-chip minor leaguer at the time, as he didn’t appear on top-100 prospect lists from either MLB.com or Baseball America until after the 2014 season. After middling numbers in his first four pro seasons, Realmuto emerged in 2014 while playing for Miami’s Double-A affiliate and even bypassed Triple-A that year to make an 11-game MLB cameo on the Marlins’ active roster. Still, the Marlins obviously believed in Realmuto’s potential, and the trade negotiations fizzled out.
As we ponder the alternate reality where the Arrieta-for-Realmuto trade went down, here’s more from the National League…
- Pirates starter Steven Brault left Friday’s outing after only two innings due to tightness in his left arm, and is day to day with the injury. The team’s statement specified that Brault’s issue was with his latissimus muscle, rather than any forearm or elbow tightness. Still, any sort of injury concern isn’t welcome news for Brault or the Pirates, as Brault is projected for one of the top spots in Pittsburgh’s rotation. The southpaw had a 3.38 ERA/5.07 SIERA over 42 2/3 innings for the Bucs last season, allowing only two home runs and doing a good job of limiting hard contact, though Brault was aided by a .243 BABIP and his 21.3K% was below average.
- With Dellin Betances struggling in Spring Training, could the Mets decide to part ways with the reliever entirely? SNY’s Andy Martino thinks it may be a possibility, if the Mets see Betances as something of “a sunk cost” who won’t help their efforts to contend. One would imagine the Mets would try to shop Betances in trades before considering a release, though it isn’t as if Betances’ trade value is high following a rough first season in Queens. The righty posted a 7.71 ERA over 11 2/3 innings in 2020, recorded more walks (12) than strikeouts (11) and spent a month on the IL due to a lat injury. Unsurprisingly, Betances exercised his $6MM player option to remain with the Mets rather than test free agency in the wake of his down year. A four-time All-Star in his heyday with the Yankees, Betances missed almost all of the 2019 season due to shoulder problems and then a partial Achilles tear.
Betances’ stuff seems too good to just cut. A couple rough seasons due to injury–maybe it takes a while to get back to what he was?
Then again, relievers kinda come and go for the most part. Dude had a heckuva run.
I agree. Unless they have to DFA a useful reliever to keep Betances, might as well give him 3-4 weeks and see what you have. I can’t imagine anyone wants to trade for him and they’ll save practically nothing if they cut him and he’s picked up elsewhere.
Also, it’s not like the Mets have a ton of great bullpen arms.
I haven’t see Betances this spring but if his velo is good, I wouldn’t worry too much. His mechanics get off sometimes and it takes a bit to correct.
Saw him top out at 91 mph. Is that good?
It is not. Time to worry.
WAJGH: I don’t know if you were being sarcastic (hard to tell) or don’t know him, but with the Yankees he was hitting 98 regularly and touching 100 more than occasionally……
91! Oh boy….. What do you do when you have an eel on the line?
Dellin always started slow.
He wasn’t usually hitting triple digits until May, if you recall, @Joe.
That being said, he used to hit 91(!) with that knuckle curve(!). Mercy. Betances at his zenith was one of the flat out most overpowering pitchers I’ve ever seen throw.
Hope he’s not cooked.
Yanks rode him really hard for years, though. So I could see him perhaps never getting back to where he was. Which would suck.
Love Dellin.
He’s the original Baby Bomber.
Clipper I watched him a few days ago, 89-90 and hit 91 a couple times. Not being sarcastic.
Wasn’t popping the glove the way he did in pinstripes or whenever I’d walk by the visitors bullpen in Toronto.
@Ducky.. yeah Joe Girardi loved him some Dellin Betances. He was awesome in pinstripes.
Wanna bet if the Mets release him, the Phillies take a shot.
You’ll need to find someone else to take that bet, @Joe.
Or…I’ll need some pretty big odds.
Say…9 to 2.
Screams LAD To me. Former all star who needs to re find it but could be a huge piece if he’s right
Ooooohhh…don’t you dare!
The problem is his velo has been around 90 this spring. He doesn’t have the kind of control to pull off that dip in speed. Bartolo Colon, who’s older than I am, would be a better asset than Betances is right now, because Bartolo has maintained his control as he’s gotten older, though his velocity has fallen into the mid 80’s.
Bartolo is a treasure, so yeah.
Big sexy should go into the Hall just cause he’s Big Sexy. My man is indeed a treasure.
@Joe. His velocity hovers around 92/93 on his fastball right. He’s become more reliant on his breaking pitches, which are still very good. I think if he were to ‘work backwards’ and transition from a power pitcher to a thinking pitcher, he could still be quite effective, but not as an 8th or 9th inning guy.
Agreed….one of the best 5-year runs I’ve ever seen from a reliever. Too bad his career has gotten off track so bad due to injuries. Dude was flat out dominant
Can’t field?
Can’t hold runners?
None of that matters when you K the side. Man, do you remember his Immaculate Inning? Good gravy could he sling it.
Seems like there are a lot of relievers that have had a career path like this. If you told me warming up quickly to throw 100 50 times a year isn’t good for your arm/shoulder, I’d believe you.
I’m guessing you haven’t watched Betances pitch in about 3 years. He’s struggling to top 90 consistently with his fastball, and his slider is straight garbage. Unless he’s suddenly able to regain most of his lost velo, I’m not sure he’s a major league pitcher anymore. He’s mostly being floated by his name and salary at this point, but the Mets have multiple NRIs in camp with better stuff than Betances at this stage in his career. And that includes guys like Tommy Hunter, Arodys Vizcaino, and Mike Montgomery. Not exactly exciting names in 2021, and all of them more electric than Betances if you watch them pitch.
Yeah Dellin hasn’t been the same since ’18.
But just want to mention he throws a knuckle curve not a slider.
I wouldn’t ever put electric and Tommy Hunter in the same sentence. He was average at best with the Phillies and came in with high promise. I would dread him coming in every time he was up in the pen.
Looks like they won’t cut him and that sucks because Big Chances is done. and the Mets may lose and did the likes of Hunter and may lose Montgomery, Barnes Vizcaino.
Like Jeffries who pitched great for the Brewers and Cubs go to Philly the graveyard for pitching cannot find a job ?
Betances is crud. Just dump him now and move on with life.
You seem like a very pleasant individual
That trade would have hurt both teams
Idk about that, it’s hard to imagine a team being worse by having JT Realmuto.
When you are giving up a pitcher who is about to go on the run Arrieta went on and that run coincides with your World Series push and you had to go to 7 games to win that WS it’s pretty easy.
Indeed. Not having Arrieta in 2016 makes the WS less likely. They also had Ross and Contreras at catcher in the playoffs. For 2016, Realmuto wouldn’t have much of addition.
Willie is better
What? You don’t need to imagine it, if the player he was traded for is better than him, then the team would be worse.
Arieta was instrumental in the WS push, Ross hit that game 7 HR, if I recall correctly, and as I recall Contreras had that grand slam game one against LA in the NLCS and had a a double scoring Zobrist in the final inning of game 7 of the WS.
If Realmuto were on the team, those guys wouldn’t have had those same opportunities/impacts.
That was Miggy Montero with the big hits.
Once a shoulder goes, it is a tough thing to get back. I like watching Betances pitch but I wonder how much he was overused in the Yankee days? Now he is paying the price.
He was definitely overused, but that’s what happens when you’re short on starting pitcher.
It’s not necessarily that we was overused. Remember he was a starter in the minors who failed. He was then turned into the first (i believe) of the trend of multi-inning shutdown relievers
Him and Miller the Yankees are bad about overwork of the bullpen
Betances was overused by Joe Girardi.
overuse is an easy argument to make and hard to disprove
Would love to see a list of the top 50 players who never appeared on a top 100 prospect list, and the % of players on the top 100 lists who make the bigs and their quality of play vs the ones who didn’t.
I like that idea too.
I looked on Baseball Reference at the top 11 in WAR for 2020. Then I looked at their minor league pages for the prospect rankings. Bieber, DJLM, and Senzatela did not have any rankings.
The lists they have on there are from MLB.com, Baseball America, and Baseball Prospectus. Not sure if those three guys made any other list.
Agreed. Baseball seems like a crap shoot.
What’s up, @London.
Excellent idea.
Sounds like you’ve a research project.
There’s a lot more to the United kingdom than just London.
Yeah, for sure, @Emerson.
I’ve actually been there. So good point. No argument from me.
I just happen to know my dude @A’sfaninUK actually lives in London. I take liberties shortening screen names. (i.e. “Emerson”)
Cool breeze?
MLB.com did a nice feature recently on re-ranking one of their previous lists (2010? 2011?) that kinda mentioned unranked guys.
Bote of the Cubs lead the team in RBIs last season this year if we don’t trade the strikeout king Bryant he can’t find a position Nico has won 2B
He’s TOAST
TOAST
Betances regularly suffered diminished velocity and command in spring with the yanks, but always rebounded eventually. His last outing of the year in 2020 saw him sit 95-97 with his fastball, which has to give you hope that it’s still in there somewhere. We’ll see. I’ll always root for the guy.
yeah his last outing is the key. He threw 95-97 because he knew he would not have to throw until next spring and wanted to increase his value; I said it at the time. Only he knows how much pain his was in after doing that and maybe that price was paid this spring. Time to dump him and move on
As a Cardinals fan I’d like to see them offer Carp and 5 mill for Betances. If Betances gets it figured out he could battle Hicks for closer role. Hicks might get a few extra days off coming off surgery. If you are the Mets and you are ready to cut bait on Betances, would you rather pay Carp 7mill to spell 1st and 3rd like people were considering Franco for? (Carp 18mil-5mill from cards is 13mill. Subtract 6 mill for Betances = Carp at 7mill for Mets)
Cards are ready to move from Carpenter and could use his spot for Gorman later in the year if he looks ok at AAA.
The Mets have enough iffy defenders without adding Carpenter to the mix
Also if they cut /trade betances that creates another spot in the bullpen and right now they have JD, Jeff, Jonathan, and Luis can play 3rd and a log jam at 1st with Dom and Pete at first. Where would Carpenter go?
Also for 7 mil you could probably get another solid reliever potentially 2 in FA which maybe something needed to fill especially with Carrasco injury moving someone out of the bullpen and into the rotation potentially.
Being back the DH no one wants Pitchers hitting not even them to dangerous & just give another player a chance to play.( hit ).
I’d rather the Mets just release Betances than trade him for that hot garbage Matt Carpenter.
Besides, if they release him and the Phillies pick him up, the Mets can get their $6 million in value out of him.
If the Cubs make that trade they probably do not win the 2016 World Series. Arrieta was huge for the Cubs winning both of his starts and holding Cleveland to 3 runs over 11 innings. Whatever Arrieta is now, he was a horse over the 2015-16 seasons
Arrieta was unhittable in 2015,just like Bumgarner the year before.
If the Cubs did not have him who knows who wins the wild card game.
He was about the same in 2016 and no team is winning a WS without a stud as their ace.
Not to mention the contributions of Contreras and Ross offensively in game 7 and more.
Time to put him on the 60 day IL and let him rest & rehab down in Florida. He’s too expensive to just cut but he’s too bad right now to trade and/or take up a spot on the 26 man roster. I’m sure they can find a legitimate ailment to place him on the IL. He might have a bad case of suckitis right now.
Yup. And he needs to be in quarantine since suckitis is contagious
This has Bloom/ Red Sox written all over it, SMH
Arrieta said no three years ago so the Cubs signed Darvish. Now Yu is gone and Jake is back
Mets bullpen should be deep enough to give Betances the opportunity to be the slow starter he has always been. I saw 94 the other day, but his mechanics are just awful. Falling off the mound to the first base side and front shoulder open.
Agree. The Mets actually do have some bullpen depth, despite what many on this thread claim