The Phillies payroll is roughly where it was last year – at least as long as they entertain rostering Brandon Kintzler and Tony Watson on opening day. A lot remains to be seen, but it’s certainly a possibility that the pair of veteran relievers makes the team. In that case, they would both make $3MM, pushing their luxury tax payroll close to $208MM, writes the Athletic’s Matt Gelb. Wanting to leave a touch of breathing room under the tax for an in-season acquisition, the Phillies are likely done adding Major League players. Whether the Phillies should trifle over surpassing the luxury tax by a million or two is certainly worth the question, but it’s not a level of spending they’ve breached in the past.
If they are using that line as a soft cap, there won’t be much flexibility even for a mid-season acquisition. Clearing close to $6MM by not putting Kintzler and Watson on the roster might be appealing for that cause, but considering the disaster that was their 2020 bullpen, they may prefer having those veteran hands at the ready. Kintzler was the Marlins closer last year with a 2.24 ERA over 24 1/3 innings. Watson logged a 2.50 ERA across 18 innings for the Giants. Both have been steady Eddies for the past decade out of the bullpen.
Watson, for his part, fits a particular need for the Phillies. Southpaw Ranger Suárez is behind in his preparation by a couple of weeks because of visa issues, notes Gelb. Suárez would be one of the lefties competing for a spot in the bullpen. If Suárez isn’t ready for opening day, Watson would be in competition with JoJo Romero for deputy southpaw behind nominal sheriff José Alvarado. The 24-year-old Romero had a 7.59 ERA in 12 appearances last year. There are plenty of reason to be bullish on Romero, however. He had a 3.66 FIP and minuscule 4.3 percent walk rate, suggesting better times may be ahead for the crowd-pleasing southpaw. Still, Watson is by far the most experienced arm with a 2.80 ERA/3.61 FIP in 591 career innings.
Damon Jones, Kyle Dohy, Cristopher Sánchez, and Bailey Falter are the other left-handers on the Phillies 40-man. None of the four have experience at the Major League level, however.
Not surprised, but I was hoping for another starter, Odorizzi in particular. I’m pretty happy with the offseason, and if things go right the Phillies can really compete. I think people are underestimating them a bit, but they do need another starter.
Saw there was a rumor Philly was checking in on Odorizzi. Philly is definitely being underestimated and I think they will be a factor in the division.
The Phillies are short a starter. I just don’t get how they are not all over Odorizzi? They still have holes in the bullpen. Why not Shane Greene?
you clearly havent heard of a little thing called the lux tax.
@metsie They’re technically not short a starter. They have Nola, Wheeler, Eflin, Moore, Anderson, Howard and Velazquez. So they have depth. It’s just not low-risk depth. I would much rather roll with Odorizzi than have to rely on Howard or Velazquez for example.
Don’t get me wrong I get they have bodies. However, Odorizzi would slot in right behind Wheeler. Just makes too much sense. As for the luxury tax, I don’t think that JO or Shane Greene would put them over. Anyway the “penalty” for going over for the 1st time is minor.
Oh, and in case you haven’t heard a new collective bargaining agreement is probably going to reset the fabled tax if not totally obliterate the current system.
Oh I like Eflin over Odorizzi. Think Eflin is really underrated, but you’re still right. Odorizzi as a 4th starter makes this team much deeper. I think they should splurge to compete, but perhaps they’re waiting until the trade deadline.
Odorizzi was reportedly looking for 3 yrs and $15m. No on both terms for me. I like Odorizzi but not at $15m, even for 1 yr. He misplayed his market a bit I think.
How are they short a starter? Moore and Anderson are the starters. Take a seat
Id trust Moore this year about as much as I trust Jansen closing games. Odorizzi would slot in nice at 3 or 4.
Moore threw more inning than any mlb pitcher last yr
So the Phils are at 208? & looking like they’re done?
Huh.
I figured they’d still be sniffing around Green & D-Rob at the very least. & there was that Odorizzi rumor last week. I think this is sketchy fiscal shenanigans. But, I don’t own the Phillies.
So there’s that.
Didn’t the Nationals spend an entire season less than a million dollars under the threshold a few years ago?
Nationals and Phils are in a different situation; Nats were spending to win the World Series while Philly is spending carefully to reach the postseason, something they haven’t done the last couple years despite their attempts. If Philly was WS close I bet Dombrowski would convince ownership to stack the chips and bite the tax bullet.
Yeah, that’s a fair synopsis.
But I wasn’t really comparing the two situations. Just wanted to know if I remembered correctly. I thought it was 3 or 4 years ago. I’m just mostly curious about it in terms of precedent.
& – of course – applying that to the Yanks current state.
I hear you. As a Jays fan I have a front row seat to the Yankees and the rest of the AL East. The Yanks are understandably tiptoeing that luxury line. I still think the only way the Blue Jays can hang with the Yankees is if they are the best hitting team in baseball in 2021.
As for the Nats I think you are right. Around 2018’ish they were hovering very close to that line.
Blue Jay’s are going to score some runs, man.
Bet.
I have the East sending three teams to the playoffs: the Yanks, Ray’s, & Toronto. Jay’s are built very similar to the Yanks. An ace, lots of starting depth, an elite offense, & a deep pen.
Should be a pretty fun summer.
Yeah. Ya know, I thought they went into & finished the season less than a million dollars under the “cap”.
I think phili might be doing a little posturing. They were pretty shrewd with Realmuto and Didi dealings. We all know Phili will throw a ton of money around- maybe they are trying to get the next target down to their asking price ??
If not though, this has still been one of Phili’s best offseasons imo. Tough to get players to come to Phili and they did not over pay for anyone this year. Good for them.
While I agree with the main point of your post comments like this “Tough to get players to come to Phili” just casually thrown around really baffle me. Why is it tough to get players to come to Philadelphia? Can you please provide an example, because I certainly can’t. In recent history: Cliff Lee. Bryce Harper. J.T. Realmuto.
The idea that players only want to go to specific destinations has consistently been proven false. Players obviously have different preferences. Money, locale, family, ability to compete…there are a lot of factors in players decisions, but my point is, history has shown us that players do not have some sort of anti-Philadelphia feeling. Plenty of free agents have chosen Philadelphia. Plenty of other players have chosen Minnesota, Texas, LA, NY, Tampa…I can go on and on.
Von I still believe if you win and have money, players will follow. I think Philly can draw big time players and they’ve proved that in recent years.
What fiscal shenanigans? There are several websites that pretty clearly MLB contracts of luxury tax obligations (Spotrac and Cot’s Baseball Contracts being two prominent).
One thing to remember – the base benefits due a player are also included in the luxury tax number, This adds about $15 million to each team’s payroll for luxury tax considerations.
The Phillies really owe it to their fans to sign Jake Odorizzi. I guess a 3rd place finish for Philly. Are they better then the Nationals this year?
Soooo Odorizzi or bust, is that it? If he were THAT much of a difference-maker, he’d have been signed already. He’d give some quality innings out of that 4th spot, don’t get me wrong, and I’d love to have him here, but a 3/45-ish deal is not the best option right now if the Phils are very clearly trying to stay below the tax. .
Agreed. The same thing was being said about Jake Arrietta 3 years ago, and by signing him to a 3 year deal it handcuffed the Phillies from making bullpen additions last year. Signing Odorizzi may help in the short term, but it just isn’t worth the 3 year commitment for what he brings to the table.
I was hoping for an Odorizzi addition too. Phillies could use another solid starter. Maybe a rookie surprises us. *fingers crossed*
They could open up some room by dealing Segura.
@A’saninUK Definitely, but Segura is needed if they want to compete. Kingery hasn’t proven that he’s an every day starter and Segura is solid. Segura and Cutch are both likely to be dealt if the Phils have a bad year.
As much as I like Segura, I wouldnt be sure. I think you can mostly replace Segura’s production via trade if need be at a fraction of the cost. maybe a trade for Luis Arraez?
@Darkside a trade for Arraez maybe but I would hope you know Segura would not be included. The Twins are pretty much filled so who would they get? Also i’m pretty sure the Twins may hold on to him because he has a great bat and can be super utility
i do. I cant imagine MIN would want Segura. They would have to be separate trades.
However, Segura has a no-trade close, and is overpaid. You don’t get salary relief by trading away overpriced players unless you entice a team by attaching a prospect.
Thankfully, they’re almost done ridding themselves of MacPhail/Klentak mistakes.
I was all for trading Segura 4 months ago and ride or die with Kingery at 2B. But I like that Segura can bump over to SS if Didi catches the injury bug or if they wanna give Gregorius a day off against a tough lefty. Kingery is probably best suited to bounce around and i think he’ll play a good amount of CF against LHP.
Von, that you for that..I haven’t understood the get rid of Segura talk…while he hasn’t been the same guy he had been, his play is still quite productive..
Question is, is there a market for Segura at the moment? A lot of teams are tapped out on increasing payroll at the moment.
Reds maybe? I have no clue what they’ve been doing but maybe they still want to be ‘competitive’
Yankees, if Torres can’t figure out SS?
Segura isn’t really much of a defensive upgrade in that case
Torres has 2021 to show if he’s the long term SS. If not, the Yankees will sign one of the big name SS.
Oakland apparently has found money now they gave Rosenthal $11M and currently have a Tony Kemp/Chad Pinder platoon at second base – both those guys are bench players, Segura at 2B represents a big upgrade.
To expensive. Philadelphia would have to pay most of it I assume
JoJo Romero the can crusher!
Hopefully this means the Angels are the last team standing with interest in Odorizzi and maybe his asking price will become more realistic.
How do the Angels have room for Odorizzi? The Angels were very busy this off season locking in low floor players. Cobb has taken his spot.
Give it a week, they haven’t done the annual “starters to the IL” assignments yet. There will be room.
The first starter in the rotation is Barria.
The Angels have about 4 Odorizzi’s in their current rotation.
As a Nats fan im going to be a little harder on the Phils offseason. I thought DD did a good job getting cheap arms that could help, the only problem was that they are old (still can do well) or they were young but not a lot of success. Alvarado could be a steal. I still think they will be 4th but DD turned their off season around
Philly’s chances will depend a lot on the nats. The nationals have a lot of ??? (Kieboom, Bell, Strasburg, etc.). If the Nationals are good I can see a situation where 3 or 4 teams finish in the 82-86 win range and get beaten out for a second wild card by a (weaker) team from a weaker division.
I agree on that.
i mean, maybe, but that requires a lot of equity between the outcomes of the games within the division. maybe you get a 2020 NL Central, but i don’t think it will be that close in the end. Id have to imagine at least two teams in the east get to the high 80s.
4th place team in the east, maybe 3rd if lucky
@ItStillMillerPark I don’t disagree, but I also look at the NL East and every team has question marks.
At one point the Phils had +938 odds to win the division. I took that bet, not because I think the Phils are better than the Braves and Mets (they’re not), but because they’re not as far away as some people think. If their offense hits like they did last year, and they get some production out of the backend of that rotation (the top 3 is solid) I think they’ll compete. Their bullpen is much improved.
While the NL East is in my opinion the best division baseball, it’s also lacking a clear powerhouse like the Dodgers. In 2020 the Phillies had a decent head to head record against everyone except the Marlins. (tied the Braves, winning record against Mets, winning record against Nats, losing record against Marlins). The Phillies can beat these teams is my point. And yes, the Braves, Nats and Mets have all improved, but so have the Phillies.
Stoopid Munie?
The Phillies need to blow up the cap. There is a time to tank, and a time to reset, and a time blow up the payroll. This is that time. I think Odorizzi is a bit overrated, but if you are in for $208M, I see no reason to not go in for $220M.
they’ll go over next year if they dont end up doing so later this year.
RIP I wanted Cole Hamels still
i mean it was obvious they arent going over the cap, but Hamels could fit under with some maneuvering.
Cole Hamels is a bad use of the small wiggle room left before the luxury tax kicks in. How many starts is he good for? 10? 12? 7?
When did they start spending? lol
I mean the Mets never spent any money. McCan was their biggest signing lmao. Lindor doesn’t count. No place to be talking.
Phillies resigned Realmuto which it seems like you’re counting, mets resigned stroman, signed mccann, may, and walker, phillies are the same as last year just without arrieta
that doesn’t include bringing back Didi, bringing in Bradley, or any of the NRI guys who will be making the team.
The bullpen will be much better. Your obviously not paying attention to the additions that they have made other than the big names.
@Metsin7 Phillies have a completely different 4, 5 starter, completely new bullpen including a new closer. Very different team than last year, but not as different as the Mets.
Not counting resignings buddy
Considering the climate of this offseason re-signs most certainly count.
your tean’s projected payroll went up by a whole $2 million. stop.
lol?
Another team Boras thought could get to bid on Bradley isn’t going to. Who now? Hope Houston won’t decide to make a 5m take it or leave it and let him choose between playing, or sit on the sidelines until maybe July?
The Angels and Phillies are spending $190 M to come in 4th place
@Fred I mean sure. First I don’t know how you can look at the Nationals and Marlins and be like “they’re definitely better than the Phillies.” You can’t. Secondly, when you can’t develop enough talent, you’re forced to spend. That’s the bottom line. The Phillies weren’t able to develop enough talent internally. The majority of the 2012-2018 rebuild was a massive failure. So they spent and built a squad that could compete in the division, but has fallen short of expectations. I think they have a great lineup, weak defense, a nice top 3 in the rotation, and a new improved bullpen. I’m looking forward to the season, and I’m happy they spent to improve. They very well may finish fourth, but at least they tried to improve.
Von,
You patiently and politely respond to a lot of sh!tposts. You’re a true gentleman.
I wish Fred worked for Vegas. I’d make a fortune.
In Vegas, the over and under for the Angels is 83.5 wins.
Seattle is 72.5 and the Ranges are 66.5.
The Phillies are 80.5
The Marlins are 70.5
Does it need any more of a debate than that? No one with a brain would pick either team for 4th place.
Ten minutes later…. Phillies to sign Jake Odorizzi.
@bucketnrew35 Lol. That would be so typical of the Phillies. And there’s nothing in this article saying the Phillies ever made an official statement that they’re done spending.
Honestly it’s the way this offseason has been going. It’s been really interesting how in the dark the media actually has been regarding the Phillies’ finances.
I thought this exactly. Some person just had the opinion that the Phillies are likely done spending, so they wrote thre article. Nowhere anywhere was there a reference to someone with the Phillies saying they were done.. Seems more like an educated guess opinion by a writer. They might be done, but there is no proof here.
still waiting…
I’m loving all this 4th place talk for the Phillies. Dodgers, Padres, Braves, then Phillies. Seems about right.
I was hoping they’d spend for Jackie Bradley Jr. A defensive presence in CF they havent had recently. Pillar would have been a good pickup but he signed with the Mets. So I guess at this point they platoon with Hasely/Quinn/Kingery? Odubel?
Seems like it. If none impress this year then they will surely be on the lookout with Cutch and Odubel coming off the books after this year.
What about segura for gruick ?
That may have been a possibility before the Jays signed Semien.
Seems like a good match next year just plug him in lf plus saves the Phillies a little this year
Jake O would fit nicely into that Philly staff. Don’t sell this team short. The bullpen is really solid now. Plus they have a good amount of offensive weapons. It’s just a matter of everyone clicking at the same time.
I agree Bill, I’m not a fan, but why not the Phills? If you take the top 5 projected teams to make the playoffs, every year at least 1 of them drops out of the spot. I’d have the Phills as one of a few teams outside the top 5, that’s good enough to snag a playoff spot.
I think 3rd is a very optimistic outlook in the NL East. And outside shot at a WC. If the Mets stay healthy, they’ll compete with the Nats to take 2nd or 3rd. Braves will win the division. And Phil’s probably end up at 4th.
the Nats need a lot to go right to be on the level of the Mets
Read all these comments looking for nominal sheriff insight.
Middleton certainly looks like a total tool to me. All this talk about “stupid” spending a year or so ago and now they’re concerned about paying a minor tax penalty for going over the first level of the salary cap? This is Philadelphia, right? First the Cubs turn to a “small market” spending mentality, and now Philly is acting like they absolutely cannot pay a few million in luxury tax fines. WTF happened to all the big talk, John?
@KCJ I think he gets a pass. Hiring DD and spending big this offseason to keep JT and Didi goes a long way. The Phillies are not the top dog in the NL East and the remaining pieces in FA may improve them, but won’t necessarily make them better than the rest of the division. If the team plays well, I have faith that Middleton will splurge at the deadline to keep them competitive. Keep in mind, the Phillies spent the 2nd most this offseason to keep the band together.
I see Odubel is slotted into right field today batting 5th..a strong part of me is pulling for him for redemption…he has done all MLB and the Phillies have asked of him…right field seems a bit odd, but as long as he is in there I’m sure he is happy for the opportunity…
What about a creative Trade? I would unload Odubel Herrera, and is 10.35 mil. contract, add Roman Quinn, or Moniak, to the Rockies for John Gray. The Rockies could use some outfield help, with speed, to roam cavernous Coors Field, and playing 81 games at Coors should help vault their offensive production, as well. Gray would give you a #3-4 starter, who can get you deep into games, throughs hard, with high strikeout rate. Give him contract at 6-8 mil., which would keep Phil’s under the CAP.
Romero needs more conditioning at AAA. Spencer Howard, as well. Starting Rotation for now:
Nola, Wheeler, Eflin, Moore, Anderson/ Nova
Bullpen:
Bradley, Alvarado, Kintzler, Watson, Neris, Velasquez, Coonrod, Brogdon, Hale.
Keep 13 of 15 listed. Nova, Hale, Coonrod, and Brogdon competing for 2 spots.
Dave Dombrowski Built Wild Card Teams that Made the World Series
(Hang onto your hats Phillies fans!)
1) 1997 Marlins (Won) Expansion Team only in the league 5 years won WS in record time (Defeated Indians) Team built by Dombrowski drafts, trades FA signings.
2) 2003 Marlins (Won) Defeated the Yankees in 6 games Dombrowski ordered by former owner Wayne Huzienga, who wanted to sell the team, (Blockbuster Video/Waste Management) to “tear down” 1997 Championship team.
(trades made and draft choices by Dombrowski became the core of the 2nd Marlins Championship won after Dombrowski left for Detroit).
3) 2006 Detroit Tigers (Lost WS to Cardinals in 5 games)
Upstart Tigers had lost a record 119 games just a few years before.
Wild Card Tigers beat heavily favored Yankees and Athletics to win the AL Pennant in 2006.
It proves that even if the Phillies make the playoffs as a Wild Card, then they have a real shot at the World Series if they get hot at the right time!
Dave Dombrowski Built Wild Card Teams that Made the World Series
(Hang onto your hats Phillies fans!)
1) 1997 Marlins (Won) Expansion Team only in the league 5 years won WS in record time (Defeated Indians) Team built by Dombrowski drafts, trades FA signings.
2) 2003 Marlins (Won) Defeated the Yankees in 6 games Dombrowski ordered by former owner Wayne Huzienga, who wanted to sell the team, (Blockbuster Video/Waste Management) to “tear down” 1997 Championship team.
(trades made and draft choices by Dombrowski became the core of the 2nd Marlins Championship won after Dombrowski left for Detroit).
3) 2006 Detroit Tigers (Lost WS to Cardinals in 5 games)
Upstart Tigers has lost a record 119 games just a few years before.
Tigers beat heavily favored Yankees and Athletics to win AL Pennant.
It proves that even if the Phillies make the playoffs as a Wild Card, then they have a real shot at the World Series if they get hot at the right time!