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Latest On Jake Odorizzi

By Steve Adams | March 2, 2021 at 11:42am CDT

While the 2021 season is slated to begin just a month from now, free-agent righty Jake Odorizzi is “thought” to be willing to wait further into Spring Training for the right offer rather than drop his asking price now, tweets MLB Network’s Jon Heyman. Odorizzi has reportedly been seeking a three-year deal that will pay him in the $13-15MM range annually.

As Heyman notes, there’s some precedent for this type of approach working out for the pitcher. Kyle Lohse netted a three-year, $33MM deal with the Brewers late in Spring Training 2013, and Alex Cobb landed a four-year deal worth $57MM with the Orioles late in Spring Training 2018. Jake Arrieta also agreed to a three-year deal midway through Spring Training back in 2018, landing a $75MM guarantee with the Phillies.

Of course, that Lohse deal is now eight years old, and Cobb’s contract was broadly considered to be a surprise. It’s tough to base expectations on that trio of solid deals, as we’ve seen at least as many pitchers have to alter their expectations and take a one-year pact in recent years: Ervin Santana with the Braves, Lance Lynn with the Twins and Dallas Keuchel’s  midseason deal with the Braves are among the examples.

None of that is to say that Odorizzi’s quest for a multi-year deal is unreasonable. His reported asking price falls roughly in line with what we expected him to sign back at the beginning of the offseason, and he’s a more desirable free agent than either Lohse or Cobb was at the time of those late multi-year deals referenced by Heyman. Odorizzi stood out as one of the best free-agent starters on the 2020-21 market — arguably the second-best behind Trevor Bauer (particularly once Marcus Stroman and Kevin Gausman accepted qualifying offers).

It’s been a very tough winter for the non-Bauer tier of free-agent starters, however. Only three have landed multi-year pacts: a two-year, $18MM deal for Mike Minor with the Royals; a three-year, $23MM deal for Taijuan Walker with the Mets (announced as a two-year deal with a player option); and a two-year, $4.75MM deal for KBO returnee Chris Flexen with the Mariners. Bauer, Charlie Morton, Corey Kluber and Drew Smyly are the only four starters to receive annual values exceeding $10MM, and of that group, only Bauer did so on a multi-year deal.

Major League teams have been reluctant to spend for much of the winter. Some clubs that have spent money (Twins, Red Sox, Nationals) have been primarily willing to do so on one-year deals.

Circumstances could certainly change, and that could be what Odorizzi and his representatives are hoping for at this point. An untimely injury on a contending club’s pitching staff could create a need and jumpstart his market, and it’s possible that as teams get better ideas about the number of fans they’ll be able to welcome to the park in 2021, owners could green-light some late expenditures that weren’t previously expected.

Odorizzi was limited to just 13 2/3 innings last season, which has surely hindered his market, although his camp can rightly point to the fact that none of those health issues were arm-related. He missed the first few weeks of the season with an intercostal (ribcage) strain and quickly went back on the IL when he was struck in the chest by a comeback liner upon his return. He later dealt with a blister that forced him back on the shelf.

Odorizzi is by no means an ace, but prior to last year’s slate of rather fluky injuries, he was a durable mid-rotation cog. He averaged better than 30 starts per season from 2014-19 and worked to a combined 3.88 ERA (4.08 FIP, 4.19 SIERA) with above-average strikeout and walk rates (23 percent and 8.2 percent, respectively) through more than 1000 innings. In a vacuum, he’d be an improvement for nearly any starting staff in the game, but the disconnect between his asking price and the market’s offerings apparently continues to linger.

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Uncategorized Jake Odorizzi

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119 Comments

  1. Luc 2

    4 years ago

    5 mil a year is not that much right? Especially for a player with a decent track record. Could be a good 3 in your rotation.

    Reply
    • Oxford Karma

      4 years ago

      He is seeking 13-15 per year. A 5 a year he is a steal

      4
      Reply
      • Very Barry

        4 years ago

        Didn’t this guy have multiple 3 years @ $17 million offers on the table last year that he turned down in favor of the qualifying offer.

        Reply
        • brodie-bruce

          4 years ago

          for once barry me and you agree imo he isn’t worth more than 3/4 year deal with the 4th being a club or vesting option

          Reply
    • NatsPhils

      4 years ago

      Teams don’t want to commit to 3 years.

      Reply
      • DarkSide830

        4 years ago

        i mean i think they’d do 15-3 but no way he settles for that little

        Reply
      • LordD99

        4 years ago

        Why? I understand the pandemic caused financial issues in 2020 that will linger into 2021, but a three year deal allows teams to sign him at a lower cost in 2021 by pushing more dollars into 2022 and 2023. Teams are looking for guaranteed innings and they have a guy who averages 30 starts a season from 2015-2019 with reports he’s healthy right now. He seems like the guy a team should want to sign for three seasons.

        Reply
        • beerncheese

          4 years ago

          I think he would have received offers in the range of 2-20 or 3-27

          Reply
      • Luc 2

        4 years ago

        Need to ask you a quick question. Are you a Nat or Phils fan? Both don’t mix well

        Reply
  2. raydh

    4 years ago

    Without looking up the numbers my gut tells me that the deals for Loshe, Arietta and Cobb didn’t work out all that well for the teams who signed them and the amount the teams paid to the players.

    4
    Reply
    • NLD_14

      4 years ago

      Loshe’s first two years were solid. The last one not so much.

      5
      Reply
    • Mr. E Team

      4 years ago

      Cobb won free in the dollars to talent competition.

      Reply
    • Spanky McFarland

      4 years ago

      Arietta’s contract was a disaster from every aspect. That deal is the poster child for team’s that will point to in situations like this.

      Reply
      • iverbure

        4 years ago

        Bingo. They ought to allow better incentives. Bonuses of the millions based on whichever stats the team and player thinks is important. Innings pitch marks at 150,160,170 IP etc. If era finishes above 4.00 1 million bonus. 3.75 era 2 million bonus below 3.00 era 5 million bonus. I’m spitballing, get creative.

        1
        Reply
        • Spanky McFarland

          4 years ago

          I agree completely. How many of us who work in the real world work off of a base salary or hourly wage and receive incentive bonuses for performance?

          The only downside that I can see for it in MLB would be factoring in the incentives to the AAV for luxury tax purposes. That could end up being a nightmare but could be explored in the next CBA.

          Reply
        • ABStract

          4 years ago

          Could you imagine getting paid bonuses just for showing up to work a certain number of times in a year?
          That’d be sweet

          1
          Reply
        • Ducky Buckin Fent

          4 years ago

          Incentives & performance bonuses are absolutely added to CBT calculations already.

          Think about it. You could sign a player for 1 mil. But then give him some kind of “performance bonus” of 15 mil – or whatever – for playing in one game & thus that player would account for only 1 mil against payroll yet still be paid 16.

          The way it works is that at the end of the season all of those kinds of additional payments are added to the payroll & that determines a team’s CBT status.

          Can’t do any of that kind of stuff.
          It’s similar to team’s paying 5 mil one year & 10 the next. The AAV number in that example is 7.5 both years, despite what we as fans would prefer it to be.

          MLB is like the IRS, man.
          No gettin’past ’em.

          Reply
        • deadspy3 2

          4 years ago

          Or how about the player gets a % of the team profit for the year? After all, the owner isn’t suiting up and getting their knees dirty

          Reply
        • TLB2001

          4 years ago

          Can’t do incentives based on outcome stars, it’s a violation of the CBA. That’s why you see them based on games, innings, plate appearances and awards.

          Reply
        • brodie-bruce

          4 years ago

          i can tell you as a union carpenter my “bonus” for performing is that i get to keep my job for one more day. i’m sure that’s what it’s like for the rest of working class stiffs me included.

          Reply
        • Ducky Buckin Fent

          4 years ago

          May be a good reason to go independent.
          No fees or dues. Better pay. More freedom.

          No more 3 guys to hold up a shovel…

          Reply
        • brodie-bruce

          4 years ago

          i don’t get the same benefits being independent i would make much less having to pay for my retirement and insurance taxes ect… also only pipe fitters and sparkys get away with having 3 guys to do a 1 man task they give a lot of us trade guys a bad name

          Reply
        • Ducky Buckin Fent

          4 years ago

          I’ve been around construction my entire life. I’m a contractor. But I spent plenty of time with a nail gun in my hand.

          Better money independent, man.
          Pay for your own insurance. Get a good money guy & work with him on your retirement. Or not. I know some fellas prefer the security the union provides.

          The biggest reason I couldn’t handle being in the Carpenters Union – however – was the way everyone was counting down days until their pensions. Man. I can’t live my life like that. It was nuts. Guys could give it to you up to the second. All of them.

          To me, that’s just no way to live, man.

          Reply
        • brodie-bruce

          4 years ago

          you make good points ducky and ny/no area is a better market to be independent and them perks you mentioned are great. here in stl there not as great i’ve been barley making it self contracting but i’m also strictly commercial (and commercial gets paid $10 more) and thanks to covid commercial has taken a big hit.

          Reply
        • Ducky Buckin Fent

          4 years ago

          I’m in the Midwest too, bro.
          Minneapolis. I’m a transplant.

          Yeah, Covid hit construction pretty hard up here, too. Lost some good companies. Here in Minneapolis, the riots created some building “issues”, as well.

          Good point about commercial. Almost all of what we do is residential. The commercial market being shot is the reason the Cubs cut so much payroll. They’ve tons of capital tied up in commercial building projects around Wrigley Field.

          Reply
        • brodie-bruce

          4 years ago

          nice bro the twin cities is a nice place (parts of ny too) just a lot of the self work here unless you hit the lotto and have a home owner that want quality over cost only way to make money is work for “free” or cut so many corners to make enough to live much less be comfortable either of which i’m not doing. especially the latter i’d rather work for a loss and give a good product call it pride or whatever but i’m a firm believer of you pay for something and i agreed on it then you get the best i can deliver or i’ll fix it till it’s right. as much as i love this discussion this is the last i’m gonna speak on this issue in fear we might be getting political and this is a place to discuss bb/sports not the stuff we see on cnn

          Reply
        • Ducky Buckin Fent

          4 years ago

          I love it here.
          The Bronx was a great place to grow up but I don’t care for NYC much anymore.

          I do the insurance thing these days; hail, wind, tornadoes, fire, water. So I’ve wised up. I bill State Farm or American Family or whomever, these days.
          Not Mr Johnson who’s check bounced.
          Ya know?

          & I get it. My company fulfills hundreds of contracts every summer. & I now have a good lawyer – unfortunately – to handle the people who try to get out of their responsibility.

          Tough being a builder these days.
          Harder than it’s ever been.
          My partner is 17 years younger than I am. He has two preschool kids. My son is a senior in high school next year.

          If it wasn’t for him, I’d probably be thinking really hard about getting out. He wants to sell in 5 years. I think I can hold out that long yet. Hope we won’t have any more years as difficult as last year.

          That could change my opinion.

          Reply
        • iverbure

          4 years ago

          TLB2001 yeah mlbpa would never allow it. That way guys actually have to earn their money, terrible idea. Hopefully the owners crush them again next year in the cba.

          Reply
        • brodie-bruce

          4 years ago

          you know that’s the usa love it or hate it us working class guys get kicked in the teeth and thrown aside till we’re needed again. your one of the lucky few that your a bench player for the big guys getting insurance jobs and being a legit company i mean that as no insult but as fuel for my other point. your story is also what makes this country great that you and everyone here has the opportunity to be either the next trout or that bench guy on the big club/stage. us guys in construction that are in a union that subs on the side or a small contractor we’re the rays of the construction world fighting for every thing we get and sometimes making hard decisions.

          gdi wasn’t trying to write an essay but here i go again lol

          Reply
        • brodie-bruce

          4 years ago

          @iverbure owners crushing the players is bad for business like or not we live in a capitalist society tbh I’m for everyone deserves to get top dollar no matter your trade whether it’s basket weaving or pro sports. What needs to happen is a fair share of the pie. Not saying players should make as much as owners but without players there is no team. I don’t know very manny fans are going alright we shed x dollars so I can watch us suck for another 20 years but damn I’m glad we saved a buck. MLB owners wanna keep there revenue a secret then gripe when players want a fair wage compared to what the team is making. For the most part these owners crying poor is bs for most owners owing a mlb team isn’t for profit it’s a hobby a lot of them are playing fantasy bb or hire people to win there fantasy league.

          Reply
        • JoeBrady

          4 years ago

          brodie-bruce
          i can tell you as a union carpenter my “bonus” for performing is that i get to keep my job for one more day.
          =============================================================
          For some reason, that reminds me of what I tell people at work. On more than a few occasions, someone will thank me profusely for some project that I worked on.

          Which is nice and all, but the only thing I can think of is ‘dude, this is what you pay me for’. Every other week, I check my bank account. If it went up, that’s all the thanks I require.

          Reply
        • Ducky Buckin Fent

          4 years ago

          Man, I sent ~ 400 thank you notes to my homeowner’s this winter thanking *them* for the work.
          Well…the office girl did, but you know what I mean.

          But yeah. They’re thanks should manifest itself in the bank account.

          Reply
        • brodie-bruce

          4 years ago

          @joe nice take it’s nice being thanked for your work but your right whatever your job is your getting paid to do it and perform or we will find someone that can

          also ducky i too have been thanking the house flippers that have keeping me afloat while i wait for things to settle. hey that’s our industry right ducky a lot of feast or famine.

          1
          Reply
  3. baseballpun

    4 years ago

    Cards need to grab him if Mikolas isn’t healthy. Maybe even if he is.

    6
    Reply
    • bassrun

      4 years ago

      Ditto.

      Reply
    • cards81

      4 years ago

      they have been clamoring that on the radio ever since Mikolas had a setback

      Reply
      • brodie-bruce

        4 years ago

        me too but do we really want odo for more than 3+ years if it’s 3 or under than ok he eats innings and will keep our kids fresh. if it’s more than 3 years rather see what we have in our kids that are scratching at the door.

        Reply
  4. 99 Captain Judge

    4 years ago

    I would offer him a year 1 contract for $11 million with a team option for a 2nd year. That’s all.

    Reply
    • VonPurpleHayes

      4 years ago

      I’m sure he got that offer already.

      2
      Reply
      • 99 Captain Judge

        4 years ago

        @VonPurpleHayes- Well he should just accept it. He probably isn’t going to get better then that. Is he worth more? He’s a #3 or #4 in a rotation at this point.

        Reply
        • LordD99

          4 years ago

          Hit. Force. Accept. Button.

          No harm in waiting. Pitcher injuries will be incoming as Spring Training progresses.

          Reply
        • Yankee Clipper

          4 years ago

          I am surprised the Yankees haven’t been more on him. There must be something they don’t like with this guy.

          Reply
        • brodie-bruce

          4 years ago

          @yankee clipper get outta here you make to much sense on this forum with that comment. ok jokes aside with the sp you guys picked up and there high risk another solid arm won’t hurt as long the years are reasonable. if i’m not mistaken nyy are over the cbt if they are then what’s a few more mil as long as it doesn’t put you in that next bracket. if it dose then we’ll my point just went to poo

          Reply
        • iverbure

          4 years ago

          Because the Yankees want to avoid the luxury tax which regardless of what the fans think is how teams have sustainable success. Staying under the tax. And if you can’t win without going over the 210 Lux tax the gm needs to get canned.

          Reply
        • brodie-bruce

          4 years ago

          i understand staying under the cbt and yes your right a teams longevity depends on drafting and development. my point was on the assumption that nyy was already over the cbt and that’s on me should of researched a little more. if your under the tax line like you said you only blast it if you feel like your team is legit and the guy your getting is putting over the top.

          Reply
  5. LordD99

    4 years ago

    Tanaka went back to Japan. Sugano opted not to come from Japan. Odorizzi remains without a team. All three could have formed the basis of a solid rotation for a $12-15M AAV each. Most teams aren’t trying to win.

    7
    Reply
    • seamaholic 2

      4 years ago

      With Tanaka and Sugano, they weren’t open to signing just anywhere. So their departure for home (or remaining there) doesn’t mean much. Odorizzi is just vastly over-asking. So I’m not sure any of these cases says much about trying to win.

      10
      Reply
      • LordD99

        4 years ago

        Tanaka definitely had a preference for the Yankees or Japan, but the response was also tepid. One team wanted him to be a closer. WTF? Sugano was open to pitching in multiple places but offers were slow, teams engaged late and he ran out of time. Odorizzi’s request as reported is not out of line. I’ll stick with my assessment.

        3
        Reply
    • its_happening

      4 years ago

      Perhaps it is time for expansion.

      Reply
      • Curly Was The Smart Stooge

        4 years ago

        Yes, let’s spread the talent even thinner than it already is. I remember way back when, almost every team had 5 solid starters. It’s like adding water to peanut butter, it spreads too thin & tastes bad.

        3
        Reply
        • SonnySteele

          4 years ago

          I’m with you. Boo, hiss on expansion. I’d like to see a little contraction.

          2
          Reply
        • Captain Dunsel

          4 years ago

          Try adding some sesame oil and mixing with cold noodles. Mmmmm.

          Reply
    • Moneyballer

      4 years ago

      In what world is that a solid rotation? If anything its the start of a very risky sub-standard rotation. Tanaka is a shell of his former self, odorizzi pitched like 10 innings last season and Sugano have never pitched a single inning in MLB. You would give each guy 15 million and count on them to be good? Good luck with that!

      1
      Reply
      • brodie-bruce

        4 years ago

        me personally i wouldn’t pay that for odo but paxton and kluber got 11+ deals (i know there are few others i can’t think of atm) so seeking 15 a year isnt that unrealistic even if it’s a little high

        Reply
  6. dirkg

    4 years ago

    None of the mentioned players (Lohse, Cobb, etc.) were seeking a 3 year deal during a pandemic and prior to a possible labor stoppage. His agent misread the tea leaves on this.

    6
    Reply
    • Monkey’s Uncle

      4 years ago

      Bingo. I came here to comment almost precisely what you said.

      Reply
      • dirkg

        4 years ago

        You are a smart man connfy 🙂

        Reply
  7. yankees500

    4 years ago

    I imagine the longer he waits the less money teams will want to commit to him. The track record of pitchers missing spring training hasn’t been great in the past for the subsequent season.

    1
    Reply
  8. urnuts

    4 years ago

    Angels go and get a deal done. Two years $24 million with a third year option of $15 million or $3 million buy out.

    Still need one decent SP and One bullpen to complete staff.

    7
    Reply
    • SonnySteele

      4 years ago

      No telling who the pitching coach will be there after the Callaway business concludes.

      Reply
      • brodie-bruce

        4 years ago

        at this point callaway is done in the mlb least for a few years and only a few years if he makes a point to do women support charities and speaking them events on how much of a pos he was and i’m taking steps to improve himself. even with that the man should rot and get his man card revoked. like chris porter said in his latest stand up he is hurting the man brand

        Reply
  9. DGHalos714

    4 years ago

    Seeing how the Angels starters have done over the last few years I think we should pick him up. Especially since he seems to have a higher ceiling than most pitchers still available. Please and thank you Perry!

    4
    Reply
    • VonPurpleHayes

      4 years ago

      The Angels rotation seems to be made up of pitchers of similar caliber. I don’t see Odorizzi as being an upgrade.

      1
      Reply
      • urnuts

        4 years ago

        Yes the rotation is average at best but all have resent injury histories vs his lone season.

        In my opinion their pitching depth is weak. Before 2020 his previous years stats tops each SP on the current roster.

        Yes a minor upgrade is still an improvement that could make a difference in the wild card race.

        1
        Reply
        • VonPurpleHayes

          4 years ago

          Odorizzi has an injury history himself though. And I agree that the Angels rotation could use some depth, but Odorizzi doesn’t give them anything they don’t have: a solid 3-4 guy with injury risk. I’m a huge Odorizzi fan and wanted him on the Phillies because they lack a true 4 and 5, but to me I think the Angels rotation is a bit under appreciated. I don’t see Odorizzi as much as an upgrade for them. I’m still thinking the Blue Jays make a push for him, but we’ll see.

          1
          Reply
        • glooney1

          4 years ago

          Agree. If the Angels staff stays healthy they will have a competitive rotation. Their bullpen is the question mark.

          1
          Reply
        • brodie-bruce

          4 years ago

          if i was the halos i’d pick him up yes he might be “better” than what you have but giving recent history last few years odo has to be better than the guy you get out of the stands because everyone is hurt.

          Reply
        • brodie-bruce

          4 years ago

          *might not be* sorry didn’t catch until the edit period ended

          Reply
    • Moneyballer

      4 years ago

      Odorizzi never pitched for the Orioles so the Angels have little to no interest.

      Reply
  10. ElGaupo77

    4 years ago

    Steves comparables are three terrible contracts

    2
    Reply
    • Moneyballer

      4 years ago

      Haha it’s very true. Basically saying, here are 3 huge mistakes…let’s not make another one!

      Reply
  11. NY_Yankee

    4 years ago

    Odorizzi is a nice pitcher, but nothing like he thinks he is worth. Very much like Bradley jr.except he plays center field

    6
    Reply
  12. muskie73

    4 years ago

    Steamer and ZiPS project Jake Odorizzi with 2021 WAR of 2.0 in 149 innings and 1.8 in 119.2 innings.

    Steamer and ZiPS project Taijuan Walker with 2021 WAR of 1.5 in 141 innings and 1.2 in 100 innings.

    Steamer and ZiPS project James Paxton with 2021 WAR of 2.2 in 133 innings and 2.7 in 119.1 innings.

    Walker signed a two-year, $20 millon contract while Paxton signed a one-year contract for $8.5 million with up to $1.5 million in incentives.

    Parties on both side of the Odorizzi negotiations have precedents to cite.

    1
    Reply
    • urnuts

      4 years ago

      And Walker and Paxton have had difficulty completing full seasons. But both have more upside of healthy and the reason teams would only offer one or two years deal.

      Inning eaters with a recent 6 year stretch under 4 era hold a little more value. Somewhere around 33-39 million 3 years seems fair. Or 2 – 25 million.

      Reply
      • Yankee Clipper

        4 years ago

        I wouldn’t call Odorizzi a sure bet to complete the season either –

        Reply
    • Samuel

      4 years ago

      LOL

      Why are projections – which are always wrong – to be regarded as “precedents”?

      Reply
      • muskie73

        4 years ago

        The consummated contracts are precedents … and any player valuation includes someone’s projection, express or implicit.

        Reply
  13. Oddvark

    4 years ago

    Odorizzi should have tried for a multi-year deal last offseason instead of taking the QO from the Twins. I think he had a plan for doing that one-year deal followed by a multi-year deal this offseason, and he’s having a hard time shifting gears.

    That said, I don’t think it’s a bad idea to hold out for at least a couple more weeks. Injuries or poor performance from pitchers during Spring Training could lead to teams being more willing to meet his multi-year demand, and a one-year deal will likely remain available in any event..

    Reply
  14. Omarj

    4 years ago

    I’m picturing him signing in the next week. 1 yr 2 yr for 15/yr with incentives. I think his camp is hoping someone gets hurt.

    Reply
  15. DTDATL

    4 years ago

    2/22 with a 3rd yr option based on hitting certain milestones in IP would seem reasonable in my opinion. He’s not great but he’s definitely a solid number 4 or 5 option on a contender.

    1
    Reply
  16. Cubsforever22

    4 years ago

    Never was a big fan of this Jake. I guess a solid 4-5 but nothing I’m paying 45 over 3 for.

    Reply
  17. RedSoxNation24

    4 years ago

    Take the 1 year deal and get your value back up the longer you wait the more likely you are to have a bad season the sitting out through spring training never seems to work out for the player

    1
    Reply
  18. Chief Two Hands

    4 years ago

    Latest, yes.

    Reply
  19. Chief Two Hands

    4 years ago

    Would like him on my team, though.

    Reply
  20. greatgame 2

    4 years ago

    Cobbs contract is a disaster for the O’s.

    1
    Reply
  21. HalosHeavenJJ

    4 years ago

    Given the need for pitching in Anaheim for the next three years, he’s a perfect fit here. Not an ace but a generally dependable arm capable of slotting in at 2/3 in a good rotation.

    Odorizzi, Bundy, Heaney, Canning, Quintana, Cobb, with Ohtani flexing in for 15 starts a year is capable of keeping this offense in games night after night. And has a little depth for the inevitable injuries.

    Considering Bundy, Heaney, Quintana and Cobb are set to leave at the end of the year, taking one hole off the 22 roster makes sense too.

    3
    Reply
    • kellin

      4 years ago

      You really think they’ll let Bundy walk? The team literally has nobody but Ohtani. If Bundy stays strong this year, I think they’ll work on keeping him. Im also still wondering why they haven’t gone after Odorizzi.

      Reply
      • its_happening

        4 years ago

        If he goes back to being the old Dylan Bundy, yes.

        3
        Reply
  22. Samuel

    4 years ago

    He’s what Jason Vargas was a few years ago – and up-and-down veteran that had had a decent year. Wanted a multi-year contract. Ultimately got it. The team with his contract gets one good season and the rest they (and others that take him in trade) wait for him to sort some things out.

    It’s not just Vargas. There are guys like this every year. A very low percentage of mid-level starting pitchers that get a multi-year contract are consistent throughout. MLB front offices have the stats. It’s a crapshoot. Jake may be one of those that hit. Who knows?

    I’d guess he’s getting one year offers for 10-15% over his multi-year value.

    Reply
  23. Lee cohn

    4 years ago

    Odorizzi is sitting in a decent place. But what is he doing to stay sharp?The Phils need him more than any other team, without question. They need to see what they have in camp, first. Assume they panic and decide to go for this guy it has to be a one year deal and Odorizzi must agree. Hopefully they are talking now to establish some scenarios. The guy has been somewhat fragile and this drives his price down. He makes the Phils better.

    Reply
  24. Rangers29

    4 years ago

    I don’t quote understand why 13-15 mil AAV is an over ask by him. He’s put up MORP numbers (and even a little more) for his career, but him asking 13-15 is too much? Why? Look at Minor, Lynn, Gibson, Quintana, etc. They all got around 10 mil AAV, and all had worse numbers than Odorizzi before signing their respective contracts. Now look to guys like Gausman. He got 19 mil this off-season! Granted it’s over one season, but if he can get anywhere close to 20 mil, then Odorizzi can land somewhere in the 39 over 3 range.

    Reply
    • Lee cohn

      4 years ago

      All a matter of timing and the reality of buyer’s budgets. The market is a factor but there is a sparse amount of teams in need that can afford this guy anywheres close to what he wants.

      Reply
    • Samuel

      4 years ago

      This may be why……

      He was consistent for Tampa Bay working with a quality D and being spotted well from 2014-16. In 2017 at age 27 with his salary going up his production went down. TB pulled the cord and Jake went to Minnesota.

      His 2018 season was similar to 2017. In 2019 he bounced back some, but at age 30 in 2020 with the short season and pandemic he had physical problems and only threw 14 innings.

      This is not the sort of record that a professional front office is going to jump into – with a multi-year contract for a player on the wrong side of 30 asking for more guaranteed money then he ever made.

      As I wrote above I think numerous teams have interest. But they don’t want to be stuck with 3 years for a profile like this. Most teams have youngsters that have a chance to be a #4-5 starter for not only far less money, but given a chance to get into the rotation might work themselves up to be a TOR guy for years….at far less money.

      I’d suggest that Jake is a Yankees type of guy. They always overpay for pitchers (and everyone else) because they can afford to eat the bad contracts. The Red Sox used to as well but now they have Bloom. Epstein did this throughout his career, but Ricketts (as with Henry before him) finally had enough. Point being that even the large market teams are shying away from giving a starting pitcher a multi-year contract in which they might get one quality year, so they eat the rest. Most teams DID lose money in 2020, and internal projections for 2021 revenue are very well far short of what is being made public.

      2
      Reply
      • Spanky McFarland

        4 years ago

        @Samuel – Awesome comment!

        I think Jake might be better if he’s open to a higher AAV for a one year “prove it” deal similar to what Didi did with the Phillies in 2020. It ended up working out for both sides and worked into a longer term deal that made sense.

        For the Phillies, if JO was willing to entertain a one year deal for 16 million, let’s say, then he might have more suitors. If it’s only one year and I’m the Phillies, I’m all over that, pay the luxury tax fine, and be happy about it. If he excels, you have all season to work out an extension or give him the QO.

        Plus, I think his potential suitors would increase as well in that case.

        1
        Reply
        • brodie-bruce

          4 years ago

          @samuel you hit the nail on the head i would love odo on the cards for 2 years 3 max he can be that workhorse that you can “ride into the dirt” and lessen the workload for the kids. anything really after 4 years unless your that starved for pitching or don’t want to start the clock on your kids all he is doing is eating up a roster spot

          Reply
    • Moneyballer

      4 years ago

      Of course you wouldn’t understand that.

      Reply
  25. Lee cohn

    4 years ago

    There is an interesting list of players out of options and not 5 yr players. GMs are going to have some creative opportunities for trades in a few weeks.

    1
    Reply
  26. JustPete

    4 years ago

    Can he eat up some innings?? Yes. Can someone please tell the Angels that he’s still available?

    1
    Reply
    • Lee cohn

      4 years ago

      The 2021 Angel’s salary picture is actually 3 million over the Phillies at the moment. No advantage for them over the Phils except the weather and Mr. Trout to catch all of those fly balls Odorizzi throws.

      Reply
      • brodie-bruce

        4 years ago

        at this point for laa do they really any good depth options yes odo might not be any better than what laa has right now but given recent injury history you should grab him. do the angels really want go down the road where “tomorrow’s” sp is a guy that won the 50/50 raffle or the guy from Anchorage state community college.

        Reply
  27. Lee cohn

    4 years ago

    All a matter of timing and the reality of buyer’s budgets. The market is a factor but there is a sparse amount of teams in need that can afford this guy anywheres close to what he wants.

    Reply
  28. mike156

    4 years ago

    Heyman pointing to Lohse, Arietta and Cobb isn’t necessarily encouraging if one thinks about their results.

    1
    Reply
    • brodie-bruce

      4 years ago

      i feel if lohse stayed in stl than go to mil he would of fared better. mil is a hitters park just like cin, pit, and chc but busch tends to be a pitchers park than a hitters

      Reply
  29. pappyvw

    4 years ago

    He will have to come off the 3 year part. I think someone will sign him for 2 years for $25-30 total.

    Reply
  30. Rsox

    4 years ago

    It’s march and exhibition games are already underway and Odorizzi (and JBJ for that matter) is still sitting at home waiting for the phone to ring. At what point does the player have the grand epiphany, or the agent just simply spells it out for them that no one is going to offer them 3 contracts at this stage of the preseason (offseason is over)

    Reply
  31. Moneyballer

    4 years ago

    He priced himself out of the market. He really needs a reality check in that he pitched only 4 games of 6.59 era baseball last season. No club is going to take that reality and equate it into a 3yr 45million deal. Demands do not meet the production. This is a prove it year for Jake whether he likes it or not. He will lower his price, take a one year deal, or he won’t pitch.

    Reply
    • theodore glass

      4 years ago

      Teams are going to consider his 2019 more then 2020.

      Reply
      • Moneyballer

        4 years ago

        If that were true…he’d already be signed, theo! This is a what have you done for me lately league. Teams consider recent injuries before previous success!

        Reply
        • brodie-bruce

          4 years ago

          I really think he just thinks to highly on himself and too prideful (which is good to an extent) . Thou as were seeing now with odo and jbj pride and narcissism is the reason there still sitting at home

          Reply
    • JoeBrady

      4 years ago

      I agree. His ERA over the past four years has been 4.14, 4.49, 3.51, and the short season 6.59, and only 5.11 IP/GS. I think he is a decent SP, but not at $45M/3.

      Reply
  32. slider32

    4 years ago

    This guy is a perfect addision for the Angels and Phils!

    1
    Reply
    • ChiSox_Fan

      4 years ago

      And White Sox – to beat LAD in the 2021 WS!!!

      Reply
      • brodie-bruce

        4 years ago

        let’s pump the breaks a bit and win your div 1st just like sd, nym, stl, mil haven’t done much last few years.

        Reply
  33. Rush Jez

    4 years ago

    Blue Jays should offer him a one year contract for $10 millions with a team option for a 2nd year.

    1
    Reply
    • theodore glass

      4 years ago

      Blue Jays should give him the three year deal.

      Reply
      • brodie-bruce

        4 years ago

        3 at the most unless you guys are that starved for pitching that you give him ore

        Reply
      • its_happening

        4 years ago

        At this point Odorizzi doesn’t have the leverage. 1 year plus option, all thanks to his waiting game. But we’re not supposed to point out the Jays rotation question marks. Jays fans get very upset.

        Reply
  34. Moneyballer

    4 years ago

    What is the difference between Odorizzi and Kluber? Both are coming off of injuries, both essentially did not pitch last season. Kluber actually has a better past pedigree and settled on a 1 year prove it deal. I think it’s a stretch for any team to just launch a 3 year offer Odorizzi’s way! He may be waiting for a deal that simply will never arrive.

    Reply
    • brodie-bruce

      4 years ago

      tbh not much i think it comes down to that odo is a few years younger and combo the fact he thinks highly of himself.

      Reply

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