The Mariners are known to be on the lookout for infield upgrades, and Ken Rosenthal of The Athletic reports (via Twitter) that Seattle is currently in active pursuit of infielders who are controlled beyond the 2021 season — including Pittsburgh’s Adam Frazier. The Pirates are obvious sellers, and the widespread expectation is that Frazier will likely be traded between now and next Friday’s 4pm ET deadline.
Frazier, 29, is in the midst of the finest season of his solid career. His 413 plate appearances are the fourth-most in Major League Baseball, and he’s turned in a robust .327/.390/.453 batting line with four home runs, 27 doubles, four triples and five stolen bases. Frazier’s 10.9 percent strikeout rate is the fifth-lowest among 137 qualified big league hitters. He’s also tied for the game’s fifth-best contact rate (88.4 percent) and has the game’s seventh-lowest swinging-strike rate (5.4 percent).
It’s true that Frazier has benefited to an extent from some good fortune on balls in play; this year’s .363 BABIP is a career-high. However, even with some regression in that department, Frazier would likely still be enjoying a career year by virtue of that career-low strikeout rate. Statcast pegs his “expected” batting average at .297, after all, and he’s still walking at a respectable eight percent clip while swinging and missing less than ever before. He may not sustain this level of output, but he’s made his rough 2020 season look particularly fluky.
Frazier’s value goes beyond his contributions at the plate, too. His defense at second base has drawn plus ratings in Defensive Runs Saved and Outs Above Average for his career, and he’s also an above-average left fielder by virtually any measure.
The Mariners surely see Frazier as a potential upgrade at second base, where they’ve received a collective .198/.267/.345 output so far in 2021. That’s a disastrous output no matter how you frame it, but it’s actually been far worse as of late; that combined effort includes 69 very strong plate appearances from Ty France, who’s slashed .293/.391/.483 while playing second base. France, however, has been playing more first base lately. Non-France Mariners second basemen in 2021 are hitting just .178/.239/.317 on the season.
As such, it’s no surprise to see Frazier among the Mariners’ targets. He’s playing the year on a $4.3MM salary and is controlled through 2022 via arbitration. That’s a key distinction for the Mariners, who are seven games back in the AL West and four and a half games back of a Wild Card spot. They’re aiming to stock up for a bit of a long-shot postseason run in 2021, but adding players who can help next year when their young core is more established (and likely after some offseason spending) is sensible.
It stands to reason that if Seattle is looking into Frazier, then general manager Jerry Dipoto has also gauged the asking price on Royals All-Star Whit Merrifield, who has again seen his name surface on the summer rumor mill. Dipoto is never afraid to make deals and will likely be checking in on a number of controllable, longer-shot trade candidates as the deadline approaches.
I think we have seen this one before.
Seattle will need to outbid the White Sox unless the Sox settle for Escobar.
I think they will settle for Escobar as he is a free agent at the end of the season.
So is everyone else
DRC+ (which is Baseball Prospectus’ version of wRC+/OPS+ but with more predctive factors) puts him at 116. Even if Frazier regresses and becomes a 115-120 wRC+ hitter, he’s still going to be a good player. I think he will eventually regress, but not an insane amount.
I just wonder how much another team values him. The underlying numbers aren’t pretty and he doesn’t have a ton of control remaining (only controlled through 2022). But I do feel that there’s still plenty of stuff to like about Frazier’s bat. He’s a very line drive oriented hitter which helps make up for his lack of hard hit rates (soft hit line drives still fall for a hit over 67% of the time and have a 291 wRC+). Pirates should still be able to get a decent return on him.
Just gotta find one team that thinks his BA is pretty…
I’m sure any team will be just fine with a guy with a .390 OBP, .368 wOBA, and 132 wRC+.
But is this sustainable? Advanced statistics says it is not sustainable.
Regression doesn’t always mean regressing to a bad player. Like I said, DRC+ has Frazier as a 15-20% better than league average hitter. He’s usually been an average hitter in an entire season. Let’s say his BABIP regresses to .320. If we’re lookingat just the difference between his BABIP to acutal BA, you’re still looking at an above average hitter.
Only if you accept the assumptions that underlie advanced statistics. BABIP assumes randomness of balls hit which is accurate only in very large samples., but not valid for individuals or small samples. Some hitters will be above average, even significantly above average, in BABIP because of either luck or because of their hitting style/skill. If those hitters are above average in BABIP, it may be because they learned to hit the ball where the fielder aint. I suspect Frazier may be able to sustain his high BABIP because he is willing to hit for singles by hitting where they ain’t. I was at a D-backs game against the Pirates earlier this week and that is exactly what he did. He slapped the ball where the D-backs weren’t.. No power, just slaps.
reasonably sustainable. He’s done it all the way through pro-ball. his problem is he loses his timeing and slumps hard.. Pirates would send him down for a week or two gets it back and starts hitting again.
He has always hit well in pro-ball. No reason to expect much different outside of those slumps.
It wouldn’t be unexpected if the BABiP drops some but should still expect it to be fairly high.
he also does better when he is playing everyday and at the same position. when he was super utility and not everyday seemed to be when he would ‘lose’ the timing.
News flash
We all know Trader Jerry in Seattle will definitely be doing some kind of trade lol.
I would not make this trade.
I would rather move Crawford to second base and sign Story or Correa in the offseason. Maybe you can get Correa to move to 3B but he is likely a 200m+ player so that price is steep….
JP is a great defender but hits like a second baseman. I don’t want 2 light hitting players as my 2B and SS. Not worth the prospects likely to be lost.
That doesn’t help with 2021. And Crawford’s value is being an elite defensive SS.
This move would essentially ensure that we don’t go after a top tier shortstop in free agency and instead commit to Crawford/Frazier for 2022…..
That would be a mistake imo. I personally don’t think the mariners are a playoff team in 2021, so my focus is fully on maximizing 2022.
Frazier and Crawford ain’t it for me.
Fair enough. I am not agreeing or disagreeing. What management is thinking is that adding some players via trade is a great pr move and will generate millions of dollars. There is going to be lots of bidders for these ss and they are going to be expensive and maybe declining. Lots of risk in giving guys hundreds of millions.
FWIW, Crawford has been an offensive beast this year.
No he hasnt
That would be terrible – Crawford is a better defensive SS than Story and isn’t costing $200M + to sign. If the want Story at 2B that’s one thing, but I believe Frazier will cost less to acquire and keep than Story and allow more flexibility payroll wise for other additions.
We have a clean payroll. We have lots of money to spend. Frazier/crawford aint taking you to the promise land. Story is a better defender this year, as is Correa. They are historically much more offensive. I want superstars, not good players.
Completely agree, we need some punch up the middle and Crawford and Frazier are a no go. Let’s get real, the Ms are not making the playoffs in 2021 so don’t trade any young players at this deadline and go big in FA in the offseason for a stud SS and a starting arm.
We don’t need punch up the middle, and moving an elite gold glover to a secondary position would make absolutely no sense. If you get Frazier this year, you have some solid contact up the middle and you use 1st base or 3rd base to upgrade for some pop in the offseason since Seager will more than likely be gone. You don’t need every hitter to be a homerun hitter, you need guys to consistently get on base as well which is what Frazier does. If the price isn’t too steep this would be a good move.
True. True. I think more than anything SEA needs guys who can get on base. They have enough power potential, especially with a lot of the youngsters.
Jerr Bear has said there is no way they will ask JP to move from short. Makes sense too.
Crawford is better than Story this year and the best defender of all three. Not to mention at a fraction of the price. I’d rather have Frazier thru next season and add elsewhere, like third base or first base.
BuddyBoy knows what’s up!
I can’t read that comment anymore without saying something:
JP Crawford is THE BEST defensive SS in baseball. It’s decidedly so.
JP won’t move to 2nd. It would be a downgrade. How about we just find a 2B that can hit?
Story and Correa are both very good defenders and have been better than Crawford this year. If you are able to sign one of them in the offseason, they are being signed to play SS. You ain’t signing them if your pitch is to immediately move them to 2B or 3B.
Crawford would move to 2B and could be an all star there.
Then you have Marte develop while Shenton becomes the 3B late next year.
This is the long range view for me
Not a bad thought… but Shenton was in Single-A last week. I doubt he will see any big league action next year, more like 2023 I think.
I heard DiPoto on MLB Sirius/XM 89 today and he made it a strong and distinctive point that he wanted nothing to do with rentals, that any deadline deal would include someone with control through 2022. Based on what I read here and heard on XM, Frazier is a Mariner. No doubt in my mind.
I could see Seattle also going after jesus Aguilar from Mia.
Frazier almost 30 why is Seattle thinking about getting Frazier. Seattle still a few years away.
Frazier is a consistent contact gritty ballplayer with a little pop,a table setter as well,this guy will still be good for a few years so it would be a good move. I personally would love to see him in the infield in Queens.
@Oldschool Mets probably getting Bryant or Josh Donaldson. I’m really disappointed in Lindor this season. I thought he would be a difference maker. Desperately wanted Lindor on Yankees. Hopefully he’ll be better now that he’s a Met long term.
I can see some similarities in the Mariners current team building model with what the Cleveland INDIANS (err I mean GUARDIANS) had in the mid’90s.
Mlbnyyfan – He’s not an NFL running back.
Because he is consistent and is a solid defender at a low cost. And this allows them to address 1B and 3rd base (assuming Seager is gone) in the off season.
He’s gone
I wish it would be reasonable at this time to go to Adam and extend him 2 years beyond 2022… but… just doesn’t make baseball sense.
Really. I’m not overly excited about what the M’s can (reasonably) offer.
M’s have some A+++++ prospects but once you get a bit farther down the line it drops off drastically at positions we’d want in a time frame we are looking for.
Pretty much looking at Pitchers. Then and Campbell as a head line and Fletcher as a sweetener. A bit of adam’s salary and/or some MiLB depth type(s)
But… if i had a shot as SS Marte i’d go for it… would require more moving parts to make that happen IF the Ms are even willing to talk about that notion.
Imo Kelenic, Lewis, Julio, Marte are all untouchable
Unavailable pitchers are probably Kirby, Brash, Hancock
Available “Headliners” probably:
Taylor Trammell – OF
Zach Deloach – OF
Brandon Williamson – LHP
Austin Shenton – 3B/1B
Then maybe another lower level prospect
Yeah Marte is pretty much the only one I mentioned that is overboard and is very unlikely. Middle infield in our system is pretty packed too… but if Ben is going talent over quantity (which he generally does) Marte would be where he’d be looking even if he has to throw more at it. I don’t know what else the M’s might need but pirates have a couple fair rentals in B. Gamel and T. Anderson that might be able to help out…?
Williamson looks pretty decent I wouldn’t be upset if that happened… but I’d rather have Then or Campbell.
Trammell is a possibility but given his horrible MLB time and ‘falling’ down the prospect ratings the past couple years… i’d need more incentive.
I wouldn’t be opposed to Deloach but wouldn’t consider him a headline. Same with Shenton. Pirates already have people at those positions of similar quality.. if they where going for go for someone at those positions it would have to be pretty high quality ratings.
Given Frazier isn’t a rental a gold glove candidate defender and having a crazy good season… the pirates can afford to wait on it and still get a good trade in the offseason if Frazier doesn’t fall off the map. If they can get reasonably high quality now even if it requires a bit of extra behind it I can see Ben going after it hard.. if not I can see him sitting on it too.
We had Gamel fun to watch but not the bat we need. I don’t see the value for Seattle.
That’s fair enough. Reminds me of the Haniger situation with the M’s… No reason to force a trade unless there is a solid deal. Can just trade him in the offseason if that’s the desire.
alexp – it should take 2 of your “headliners” and a lower level guy to get Frazier.
Don’t want any of those bums
I would hate to see Deloach go. Kid is absolutely raking in Everett and looks really good.
He’s in AA now and I agree. I think he’s a ML starter and possibly a better player in the end than Lewis.
I’d be reticent to move DeLoach or Williamson either. There’s still plenty of talent without moving the elite level guys. No way they’re moving Hancock, JRod, or Marte for Frazier. I don’t even consider Kelenic or Raleigh as options either.
Maybe the Pirates would consider Sheffield or Dunn as longer term pieces for their rotation they can use now. There’s also guys like Long, Moore, Walton that could be a piece of the Pirates see something. Also guys like Trammell, Torrens, Then, Campbell, Carlson, Stoudt, and Elliott could have interest.
only three you mentioned that have any ‘real’ value in a trade for frazier are Trammell, Then and Campbell.
if Torrens could catch i’d put him on the table as well. but it isn’t a strong suit.
And Trammell i’d consider a ‘toss’ in.. Lack of production and falling down the prospect rankings in recent years makes you wonder.
Most of the rest are injured or have been seriously in the ‘recent’ past the remaining are pretty far down the line… or just havn’t produced well at any pro level.
Kirby is going to have to be moved in any big deal. Hancock isn’t going anywhere
Emerson Hancock for Frazier gets it done
or to the White Sox for Vaughn
Not a chance!
As much as I would like that as a Pirate fan, there’s no way a team gives that up for Frazier. He’ll probably reel in a 45-45+ as a headliner followed by 1 or 2 40-40+ guys. Maybe an Adam Macko (45), Zach DeLoach (40+), and possibly Austin Shenton (35+). If the Pirates get back Macko and DeLoach, Shenton may be a bit of a stretch unless they include like Chris Stratton, and/or Tyler Anderson. (btw, this is FanGraphs’ FV rankings and valuations).
I would agree if Frazier was a rental. given that he has another year i’d expect a little more even if it does require more moving parts…. obviously not the more elites though.
yeah thats not happening…. I wouldn’t argue if it happened though 😉
Please Pitt, don’t trade Frazier to a boring Seattle team. He’ll get swallowed up and go nowhere, also avoid Yankees.
Seattle certainly isn’t a boring team. You could say they’re not all that good, a pitiful franchise, or forgotten, but boy they are absolutely exciting to watch with the youth movement and farm system projections. Plus Jerry Dipoto always keeps things interesting.
They were interesting when they had Buhner & Griffey Jr. Ever since then it’s like watching paint dry. I respect your opinion if you’re a Seattle fan, but for many of the rest of us, boring.
idk about boring since Griffey and Bone left. Ichiro’s rookie season he won the MVP and the team won 116 games. He’ll most of Ichiro’s years in Seattle were must see games. 242 hits was amazing. Do you even like baseball?
Vaughn going nowhere.
No way on either option. Get real man.
There is no known universe where Andrew Vaughn is part of a trade for Adam Frazier.
Noelvi Marte isn’t going anywhere. After climbing into Seattle’s Top three in Prospect Rankings, there just is no scenario where I see Seattle trading a future star in Marte. He should be in an M’s uni for a long long time. He projects as Seager’s replacement at 3B going forward.
The M’s could also choose to go the route of acquiring a 1B like Mancini which could move France back over to 2B. He might be a cheaper option than Frazier. Mancini also gives Seattle some flexibility as he could play some outfield as well, giving Luis Torrens a chance to get another RH bat in the lineup at 1B for days when a lefty is on the mound.
fangraphs.com/prospects/the-board/2021-in-season-p…
I wish the Mariners wouldn’t tip their hands like this….so many times in their history they have said they are interested in a player only to have a team with a better record, a bigger market or deeper pockets to swoop in. The players they have landed they have paid a huge price for.
If it happens it happens, no sweat. But some big changes are coming this offseason regardless. The M’s are about to get an infusion anyways with Sadler, Dunn, Sheffield, Fraley, and Lewis all close to returning. Hold fast!
Don’t sleep on those boyz!
The Mariners are a notoriously tight lipped team. Our 2B are hitting like high schoolers and the Pirates suck and have a pretty good, controllable 2B. It doesn’t take Miss Cleo to make this connection.
Go get him!
The Mariners aren’t ready to contend even if their record shows that they’re a few games above .500. Adam Frazier would be a better fit on a World Series contender. Mariners should sell this deadline and then sign a few short-term guys to prepare for a Wild Card run or a possible division title run for next year.
I feel the same about the Reds, yes they’re above .500 atm but let’s face it they’re not equipped for a deep postseason run.
Do you see the Reds retooling after this year? I’m still quite confused on wether they will go for another playoff run next year or decide to trade guys like Gray, Castillo, and Suarez and see if they can get back MLB ready type players.
Connor Phillips and Jonatan Clase for Frazier!! I’m in!! A young Pitcher and young OF.
Or try and get Jack Farley and A.Munoz. Or Evan White if the Pirates want MLB ready players.
If you want Evan White done deal!
Glad you are no a GM giving up White would be by far the worst trade we have ever made and that includes Varitek and Jones.
Out of curiosity what do you see in Evan White that makes you think trading him away would be a bad move? We prematurely gave him a big contract. He has shown that he cannot hit major league pitching and plays a position that you expect more production out of. Sure he’s a gold glover… but I would give up some defense for a hitter that can hit for some pop and anything over a .200 average.
The Pirates don’t want MLB-ready players.
We need an MLB CF. And Farley was a top 10 prospect in their system just last season.
I would take Farley, or A.Munoz, or Evan White, or A.Misiewicz.
All 4 young, former top prospects, have years of control left, and still have more potential.
I would be more than happy with a return of J.Farley(26 years old), A.Misiewicz(26) and Connor Phillips. #9 prospect in system, young 20 year old prospect, lottery ticket, drafted last year(64 overall) out of Texas HS.
Enough with the former top prospects, Neal. The Pirates have no business targeting anyone at or even near the majors. None of their best prospects are past AA.
You’re also selling Frazier a little low, he has a seemingly robust market and BC should be able to capitalize. Someone like Kirby should not be totally unattainable.
I’d be okay with that as a Mariners fan too.
You are not getting Kirby why not dream big ask for Gilbert. Lol
Ok, sure thing. Kirby for Frazier would be laughed at. U do know the Pirates have major decisions coming up as far as who to protect from the Rule 5 and put on the 40 man.
Or u want to be Dave Littlefield and have the 1st 5 picks of the Rule 5 draft all being Pirates.
Of course u knew that though.
You can’t just keep acquiring low/mid level prospects. It will bite u big time in the Rule 5 draft. Like Littlefield and the Pirates in 2002. 1st 5 Rule 5 picks were Pirate prospects. Laughing stock of the league.
But again, u knew that.
And u know, Reynolds is a LF, playing CF cause we have no MLB CF right now. Pirates need a MLB CF.!!
And Fraley is 26 years old, 1st year in MLB, has 7HRs and 7SBs and plays a good CF. Was the Mariners #8 ranked prospect last season. Ya, he graduated from a prospects list this season. He just turned 26 last month.
Again, u probably knew that though?? You know who A.Munoz is..?? Nope, probably not. How about A.Misiewicz?? Nope probably not.
So why not just comment on things u know about!!
Reynolds is more than fine for CF right now. Long term probably not, but focusing on getting a CF for right now would be a waste. He’s better there than Cutch was.
And are you really gonna use rule 5 as a reason to not get the most talented players possible? That’s laughable dude, even before you consider that the majority of the current 40 man has no business being there on a winning team 2 years from now. Any front office worth 2 licks can handle a rule 5 crunch.
And yeah, I’m frothing at the mouth at the thought of getting 2 guys already deemed relievers, one of which is coming off his 2nd TJ surgery. Thank god BC has guys like you to get advice from.
back end RP that Miss bats. U know, valuable pieces in MLB right now..lol.
Ya, u can’t just keep adding mid level and low end prospects. B/C of the Rule 5 draft.
And yes, I’m not the only one. It’s a concern every MLB GM has. Hate to tell u.
pirates.pittsburghbaseball.com/2021/06/22/the-upco…
Copy and paste:
The Pirates have assembled a remarkably deep farm system, with far fewer roster spots than normal occupied by players who aren’t actual, or at least potential, prospects. One reality of all that depth, of course, is the possibility of a Rule 5 crunch. The Pirates are going to have one on a biblical scale this fall.
Ya, I think B.Cherrington is taking note of it too.
jtkuch – Thank you! Good players come at a high cost. Frazier is having an awesome year and is in demand so the cost should be high.
Pirates don’t need a MLB center fielder (this year) unless they’re projected to be all-stars next season. We really don’t want anyone over 25 with out 5-6 years of control. If they pan out they’re young enough to extend or trade as contracts coming up.
With quality prospects all around the field now, another defense first catching prospect or pitching is what we want… OR TOP END Prospects, but with what we are likely trading away we wont’ get that.
Rule 5 isn’t a consern if we are getting players that do not need to be protected from rule 5. Some of those players on their list dont’ ‘need’ to be protected. If they’re lost yeah.. it isn’t really a good thing.. but if they’re not protected that means they’re someone else that is who the team consideres better.
the TL;DR, decisions need made but there is no bad route.
If we also get a MLB center fielder like you suggest… there is another 40man spot taken when we already have a Centerfielder prospect on the 40man.
Because he is consistent and is a solid defender at a low cost. And this allows them to address 1B and 3rd base (assuming Seager is gone) in the off season.
What kind of package does it take to get Frazier? Upper level pitching?
I would be happy with Williamson and Connor Phillips. Pirates have a bunch of players that need to be protected and on the 40 man roster next season. They are probably looking to get younger prospects, than prospects that will need to be protected from rule 5 draft and be added to the 40 man.
Although I would like J.Farley and 1 of those Pitchers. Pirates need an MLB CF-er. Reynolds is a LF playing CF. Although he’s playing well in CF, he’s really a LF. And Fraley is just 26 and was a top 10 prospect in the Mariners system just last season.
Pirates get J.Farley and B.Williamson or J.Farley and Connor Phillips and I’d be happy!!
It’s Fraley
Bob Farley is going to be a singer after his BB career is over.
Some of you guys have been smoking too much Parmesan cheese. No way they trade a GG 1st bm under contract for 5 more years. Marte is going nowhere and the same for many of their other top prospects.
Seattle might be a buyer because they might be in the playoffs. They aren’t going to give young talent up for a guy that might help. They spent a good amount of time and capital building this young group of guys.
If they can get Frazier for a good price they will but I can’t see giving them giving up much that will help down the road. Trammel might be the best player they could get. Torrens if they want a catcher who can’t or won’t block.
No way Kelenic, Gilbert, Trammel, J.Rodriguez, N.Marte, Hancock or Kirby are even considered as a return for Frazier.
Like i said, I’d be happy with Farley(who is 26 years old, and was a top 10 prospect in the Mariners system just last season), and B.Williamson or Connor Phillips.
Maybe J.Farley, A.Munoz and 1 of those young SP, lottery ticket, prospects. Although Munoz’s career might be over after his 2nd TJ surgery and not playing in over 2 seasons.
But Pirates need a MLB, CF-er. Reynolds has been playing CF well but he’s really a LF. Farley and one of those pitching prospects would be a good return in my opinion.
Who the hell is “Farley”?
Sorry, Fraley. same thing.
If it was the same thing, then it’d be the same thing…
But torrens crushes the ball. Leave him at 1b
Leave him at 1st or maybe be a key part in a trade. You aren’t giving up future talent and losing a guy who looks to be a DH unless someone can teach him to block. I would def say keep him if he is OK to be DH and play 1st every couple weeks. Most young players don’t want to be just a DH. Our future at C just hit. A 442’ HR for his first career HR. That was after throwing a perfect seed to 2nd for a caught stealing. Congrats to Cal.
I’m really interested to see what Torrens can do at 1B the rest of the year. The kid can swing the bat. That being said, he has no business being behind the plate
Curious if Seattle could instead possibly acquire (and extend) Kiner-Falefa for their current and future INF and UTIL needs.
It’d be a haul. I live in Texas and have a pulse on Kiner-Falefa. Rangers fans get so pissed the moment I mention his or Nick Solak’s name. He isn’t going anywhere for less than a haul.
Its like saying I wonder what it would take to get Gilbert from Seattle. It’d be a lot.
Totally understandable. I really like him as a player.
I wonder if they are waiting till the 27th to trade Adam. Give him one last curtain call at home.