MLBTR Chat Transcript By Steve Adams | July 7, 2021 at 2:05pm CDT Click here to read a transcript of today’s chat with MLBTR’s Steve Adams.
Top of my head, Cabrera, Strasburg, Stanton and Vazquez have worse contracts than Hosmer. Possibly Ozuna and Bauer as well if there’s any truth to the allegations.
Cabrera: franchise icon, and close to 2 major milestones. He has 2 years left and is owed $3mm more than Hosmer. I think Detroit is more ok with Cabrera than SD is with Hosmer.
Strasburg: you might have a point, also he might provide some value. At the least he can be an incredibly expensive reliever.
Stanton: more valuable than Hosmer.
Vazquez: Who are you talking about?
Cabrera: From a pure value perspective, he is easily worth less than Hosmer. Owed more money and because he has less time left on the contract the real value of the money he is owed is even greater than Hosmer’s. Although you do have a point about him being a franchise icon who is close to 2 major milestones.
Stanton: No he is not. The Yankees would take Hosmer for Stanton in a heartbeat if it was offered. There is more to value than just what a guy is doing right now.
Vazquez: I’m talking about former Pirates reliever Felipe.
Nobody cares about Felipe Vazquez, and he is the kind of player you really have to mention the full name. SD would gladly trade Hosmer for FV straight up.
I don’t know what to think about Giancarlo Stanton.
I think SD would trade Hosmer for Miguel Cabrera straight up. SD can just bench Cabrera, have him DH for interleague games and start him at 1b for a quarter of the games. Let him sell some jerseys some tickets, and collect his 500th homer and 3000th hit.
Hosmer has a bottom 5, perhaps bottom 3 contract in MLB.
No, one is trading anything for Felipe Vazquez at this point.
Among players whose values aren’t down because of off-field issues, Stanton has the least trade value.
On Cabrera, the Padres are not trading Hosmer just to add another sunk cost who is owed even more money and would also increase their luxury tax hit by $13m.
Unless you count guys whose values are down because of off-field issues, you are correct about Hosmer having a bottom 5 contract in baseball. But Stanton and Cabrera are worse.
Ducky Buckin Fent
Absolutely no way that the “Yankees would take Hosmer for Stanton”.
Eric Hosmer AAV: $18MM
Giancarlo Stanton AAV: $22.7MM*
For a difference of a “whopping” $4.7MM
When healthy, we’ve seen Stanton carry the Yanks. Hosmer…well, doesn’t/can’t. Yanks have Voit a pre-arb player at 1B, as well. I’m sure there are players Cash would gladly trade Stanton for. But Eric Hosmer is definitely not one of them.
* after Miami’s contribution
@Ducky Buckin Fent Eric Hosmer’s AAV is $14.75m after this year. Stanton is also signed 2 years longer, the “when healthy” is a huge asterisk in his case and it’s only going to get worse as he ages. Yankees would be doing cartwheels if the Padres would take Stanton for Hosmer.
Ducky Buckin Fent
Yanks don’t look at it like that.
AAV in re the CBT is the important thing to the Yanks. Examples: extra years for DJ & Hicks, option years tacked on to deals (i.e Wilson, O”Day, Gardy, etc) as obvious ways to lower AAV.
The actual salaries don’t matter to the Yanks. The CBT hit does.
& let’s just be real for a moment. Stanton is on a legitimate Hall of Fame pace. Hosmer is nowhere close to that level. Again, Cash would move him. But not for that guy. & that’s without even considering the greater roster implications (i e. Voit).
@Ducky Buckin Fent…
Not sure Stanton makes the Hall. Hosmer might not be close to him production-wise but he is much cheaper and his contract expires two years sooner. And remember that Stanton’s production is extremely likely to decline over the remaining term of his contract.
Like I said earlier, notwithstanding guys whose trade values are down because of off-field issues like Felipe Vazquez, Stanton has the least trade value in the game.
Vazquez is on the restricted list. The Pirates are not obligated to pay him. So I don’t think he fits in this conversation.
Hosmer? 90 OPS+? Stanton has a 138 OPS+ and his luxury tax hit is only $22M to the Yankees. They’d have exactly a zero percent interest in the husk of Hosmer.
@lord99 Again. Hosmer’s luxury tax hit is $4m less per year, his contract expires 2 years sooner and Stanton’s OPS isn’t going to stay that high. Nor are the injuries going to become less of a problem for him.
It’s not the husk of Hosmer they would be interested in, it’s dumping Stanton.
Ducky Buckin Fent
Doesn’t work like that, @pitcherwins.
The AAV is calculated over the life of the contract. This is a way to ensure teams don’t manipulate payroll.
Say you sign a guy to a two year deal. In year one, you are well below the first CBT threshold. So you give him $20MM. You do this knowing you have a lot of arb eligible players the next year, so Player X gets $2MM that year. See the problem? This would lower your payroll level artificially.
So in actuality, Player X’s CBT hit is $11MM/year. You can sort of figure it out by the actual words: average annual value.
You keep trying to say his AAV is $14MM for the next few years. This is a false & wholly incorrect notion. Form year one to year eight, Hosmers AAV is $18MM.
Trust me. If there is one fan base that thoroughly understands CBT taxes it’s the Yankees.
@Ducky Buckin Fent I know and knew exactly how the CBT works in MLB.
Stanton is still the most immovable contract in baseball. And the Yankees are still desperate to dump him.
Ducky Buckin Fent
I can certainly admire tenacity.
But: a couple of us have patiently shown how Stanton for Hosmer is entirely unrealistic.
I believe we are now down to the point when it is pretty obvious that you just have one for Giancarlo Stanton. Which…well not much I can do to disabuse you of that notion.
Have a great night, bro.
To pirates fans, missing out on trading a guy is a bad contract.
@Ducky Buckin Fent it’s unrealistic because Stanton has a full NTC and is already where he always wanted to be.
And I am not sure what you are insinuating about me and Stanton but I assure you that what I am saying has nothing to do with anything but his expected production relative to the amount of $ he is owed. Ditto Hosmer.
I imagine Felipe Vazquez contract is voided/suspended (in limbo?).
Maybe if his prison team becomes a minor league affiliate?
@Steve do you buy the narrative that the Padres had to sign Hosmer first to be able to sign Machado and Tatis later on?
Sounds like wild speculation to me. Tatis was traded in SD from the White Sox.
And then signed a 14-year extension last February. Some people say he doesn’t sign if the Padres don’t sign Eric Hosmer first.
I think making deals with an agent, especially when they need it, pays off in future negotiations.
Nope. Different agents.
Am I missing something with Robbie Ray? He’s on pace to put up about the same production he did in 2019. His ERA is better, but his FIP is about the same and I wouldn’t be surprised if he doesn’t continue to strand 90% of runners.
And as for the Semien contract, didn’t people generally think that was a pretty good sign for them at the the time or am I mis-remembering?
Contracts worse than Eric Hosmer: after 2021: 4 years, $59mm
1). Chris Sale, 3 years $85mm (injured, hasn’t played since 2019)
2). Jason Heyward: 2 years $44mm after this year
3). Miguel Cabrera: 2 years $64mm, but he is a franchise icon and is closing in on 3000 hits and 500 homers.
It can be argued that none of these teams would trade one of these players for Hosmer.
Eric Hosmer has the worst contract in MLB.
Chris Davis – Baltimore is easily the worst contract in baseball.
Never mind the painful years Chris Davis put up in Baltimore, that is in the past. Which contract would you rather have NOW?
I think that if Baltimore offers Chris Davis for Eric Hosmer straight up, the Padres take that deal. SD saves an enormous amount of money ,and they can easily find someone to replace Hosmer’s “production.” They can even slide Myers to 1b and find someone else to play OF. Maybe even have Kim play 2b and Cronenworth play 1b.
Also, I was wrong, Hosmer is owed $61mm after this season, not $59mm.
@truthlemonade Hosmer will make $20m in 2022 and then $13m/yr in 2023-25.
@hockeyjohn bro, he only has one year left after this one. Yes, he’s a sunk cost. But there are other sunk costs around the league with more money payable to them in the future.
I think Sale will be ok. Heyward at least plays defense and runs well so he isn’t completely useless. Cabrera is brutal but as you point out he is a franchise icon, a future HoFer and he also probably exceeded his contract in it’s earlier years o I think Detroit is probably ok with him.
Trader joe- must we ask for the same trade package on every chat?
And every chat they comment that the Indians are not likely to trade Jose Ramirez, yet every chat has at least one trade proposal made for him.
Well the Indians now trail the Sox by 8 games.
Rebuild time for the Tribe!!!
Cleveland has been playing without their entire starting rotation. They will be back and have a strong farm system. No need to rebuild..
At least we didn’t get another Whit Merrifield trade proposal in this chat.
If the Cubs move Kimbrel, I like the Dodgers as a trade partner.
Dodgers are already going past the tax, and can afford him.
They’re likely one of the teams that would pick up next year’s option too.
They have the $ and the prospects.
Friedman usually doesn’t add expensive bullpen pieces though.
Keeping my fingers crossed
That bullpen could devastate with Kenely in a good form (walks aside) and Treinen to accompany them in the pen
Who do the Dodgers have of value that would net them Kimbrel. I’d imagine it would take at least 3 players. 1 being in the Dodgers top 30 but upper range 20-30. Still has a high ceiling and the players would have to be all pitchers.
LA has more hitting in the system but the draft is soon.
Maybe Mitch White, Gerardo Carrillo, and Andre Jackson.
I could see the dodgers wanting to switch a hitter for Jackson.
Because this is clearly the we kinda talk about whatever on the comments: Shotime is a monster. Just fouled two pitches of himself including his surgery knee and then 114 into right. W O W
Who is shotime?
Another poor outing by Steve. Please fire this idiot already
Worst comment here.
If Joc Pederson is traded. the cubs need to call up Brennan Davis.