The Orioles announced today that right-hander Félix Bautista has undergone surgery to repair a torn rotator cuff and torn labrum in his right shoulder. He is expected to miss the next 12 months. Jake Rill of MLB.com was among those to relay the news.
The news is obviously brutal for the O’s and Bautista. He just missed the entire 2024 season while recovering from Tommy John surgery. He got back on the mound this year and showed some flashes of his old self. However, he’s now going to miss the remainder of the 2025 season and a huge chunk of 2026 as well. Given the estimated timeline, any kind of setback could lead to him missing another entire season.
Prior to the injury setbacks, he had established himself as one of the most dominant relievers in the game. Over the 2022 and 2023 campaigns, he gave the O’s 126 2/3 innings with a tiny 1.85 earned run average. His 10% walk rate was a bit on the high side and his 39.9% ground ball rate wasn’t special but he punched out a massive 40.4% of batters faced.
As mentioned, he showed some hints of that form in 2025, though also with some rust. He logged 34 2/3 innings this year with a 2.60 ERA. His 35.2% strikeout rate was technically a drop-off but still a great figure. Meanwhile, his grounder rate jumped to 50.7%. On the worrying side, his walk rate spiked to 16.2%.
Perhaps he would have continued refining things as he got more innings and shook off the rust, but that won’t happen now. He landed on the 15-day IL in July due to shoulder discomfort. It was announced by the team in August that his injury was “significant” and that he wouldn’t be coming back this year. Today’s news provides more clarity on how dire the situation is. It’s possible that Bautista eventually throws less than 40 innings for the 2024-26 stretch. If he returns late next year, he could push a bit beyond that number, but likely not by much.
Bautista is controllable through 2027. He is making just $1MM this year. He will be due a raise in arbitration for 2026 and 2027 but the missed time cuts into his ability to substantially increase his salary. Given his ceiling, the O’s will surely tender him a contract with the hope of him contributing late in 2026 and/or for the entire 2027 campaign.
For the O’s, it’s the latest kick to the nuts in a season that has seen them pummeled by injuries. They came into the year knowing that Kyle Bradish and Tyler Wells would be rehabbing from last year’s surgeries, but then they have also seen guys like Grayson Rodriguez, Zach Eflin, Andrew Kittredge, Albert Suárez and others miss significant time. On the position player side, Tyler O’Neill, Adley Rutschman, Colton Cowser, Ryan Mountcastle and others missed chunks of time.
Those injuries helped push the O’s down in the standings. Though they came into the year with clear postseason aspirations, they wound up deadline sellers. Cedric Mullins, Kittredge, Gregory Soto, Seranthony Domínguez, Bryan Baker, Charlie Morton, Ramón Urías, Ramón Laureano and Ryan O’Hearn were all flipped prior to the deadline.
The club is now playing out the string on the 2025 season, so the Bautista injury is fairly moot for the short term. But his extended timeline obviously hurts for 2026. As mentioned, the O’s already flipped four relievers last month, putting a big dent in the bullpen. Bautista is an even bigger loss.
Though they sold at the deadline, it’s assumed that the club intends to rebound and compete again in 2026, as they have a young and exciting core to build around. Presumably, the Orioles already planned on making a few bullpen moves in the coming offseason. This news should only enhance the need.
For Bautista personally, it’s another delay in him unlocking a notable paycheck. The late bloomer didn’t crack the big leagues until he was in his age-27 season. Despite his excellent results, he’s now 30 and hasn’t made more than $1MM in a season, which is barely above the league minimum. The two lengthy surgery absences will dampen his earning power in arbitration. He’s not slated to reach free agency until after his age-32 campaign. It’s possible he’s healthy by that point but the injury track record will be still be noted by clubs.
Photo courtesy of Jonathan Dyer, Imagn Images
Jeez this guy won’t be back until 2027 considering how it takes a while to ramp up. That sucks Orioles fans…
yup, Maybe plays some winter ball to be more built up for 27.
@acoss1331
That’s if he can even come back from that, hope he does not going to wish that ill will on anyone, but rotator cuff and shoulder surgery are the worst injury a pitcher can get.
He’s the Tyler O’Neil of closers, sad to see.
I still can’t believe the O’s bullpen held on for the win last night, quite amazing.
At least Bautista is easy to cut. At this point they keep him around solely since he will miss all of next year on a rookie contract and will be lucky to get 2m in his first time in arb with missing most of his platform years. So there is like 0 risk in just keeping him around (he is also a late bloomer, so he is unlikely to ever get a long term contract)
the issue is that this makes the oneil signing look even worse. th Os do not need hitting; at most they need a CF who will hit at the bottom of their order next season, but they need almost an entire rotation and about half of a bullpen. They cleared or will have about 60m for next season but that is not a whole lot when the 2 SP they need will be 3/4th of that for just 4th SP level guys
They do not need an entire rotation. They will have Rogers, Bradish and Kremer returning to rotation spots next season. Greyson is a possibility but definitely should not be counted on at this point. They have other pitchers that could compete for backend spots in the rotation – Povich, Young, Suarez, Young etc.
they absolutely need to bring in a top of the rotation arm and would be smart to bring in another top to mid rotation arm as well. Any two of: Cease, Woodruff, King, Suarez, Sugano, Eflin, Marquez would work, with other names falling into the list from a trade acquisition perspective. Adding 2 arms is not outside of their means but they can potentially get by with adding a major arm and possibly another addition at the deadline in season.
This team is nowhere near as bad as some make it seem. Their lineup is essentially set and could use another acquisition if they wanted to try to add some more OBP or power but I think they will be fine with the bats and defense they already have on the roster.
Those two starters should be the priority and then the guys competing for the last spot in the rotation in spring, with the ones who fall short being slotted into the pen. I think Wells would be a great option at closer until Felix gets back but I’m sure they will want to stretch him out as a starter initially. I see him being successful in the high leverage type roles though, and he’s had experience there in the past.
They are in a great position considering the horrendous start to this year. They will absolutely be contenders next season and with the right pitching additions, they could be favorites.
Which sucks twice as bad for the Orioles since they are paying the Tyler O’Neill of Tyler O’Neill’s for two more seasons…
Rsox – Yep, O’Neill is by far the highest paid Oriole this year and next year at $16.5M ….. one of Scott’s greatest fleecings.
I still laugh thinking about those who insisted the Sox should have extended him. Even if he was healthy, where would he have played with the Sox already having two DH’s and four OF’ers?
Tyler O’Neill basically replaced Austin Hays as the talented, yet near- platoon level, right-handed Oriole outfielder who gets hurt repeatedly — except that O’Neill is way more expensive.
Well, that simply isn’t true. From 2021-2023 Hayes put up 3.4, 2.9, and 2.5 WAR with his OPS+ being over 100 in each of those full seasons.
He’s currently hitting .262/.319/.458 with 12 doubles, 5 triples, 10 HR 48RBI, a WAR of 1.0, and an OPS+ of 106. Now compare that line to the O’s outfield this year.
Mullins: .1 WAR .229/305/.433 105OPS and he’s done worse for his new team.
The only O’s outfielder he didn’t hit better than would be Ramon Laureano, and he was traded. Beavers and Jerimiah Jackson have too small of a sample size to be included.
What did I say that wasn’t true? Anyway, Austin Hays was terrible last season, putting up a -0.1 bWAR in 2024. This season he has a 0,6 bWAR — no idea where you’re getting the 1.0 WAR from. His OPS+ against RHP this season is 80, which sounds about right for him. He’s always mashed lefties, which makes him an old school platoon outfielder. The fact that he’s hit better than most O’s outfielders isn’t that relevant when you consider how bad the Orioles have been this season — especially in the OF. Hays would have made them a bit better, but only because O’Neill has been hurt most of the year and Cowser has regressed badly. You mentioned Laureano — which is precisely the reason the O’s have not exactly missed a healthy Hays (not that he ever gets through a season without being on the IL) this year.
It is called baseball reference at of the time of that post.
The fact that the O’s outfield has been terrible, and he’s at least been decent when given enough atbats for a sample size IS the point.
Ok, I agree with you. But it doesn’t change my original point that that O’Neill basically replaced Hays as a near-platoon level outfielder who is way more expensive and hurt more often than Hays. It’s obvious from their splits the past couple of years. I still have no idea why you argued that point.
Because you’re wrong.
Holy f
Another missed season??!
When he enters 2027, his last yr before free agency, he will only have 3 seasons in the majors
This will be his first trip through ARB this offseason, so he is going to likely sign a pillow deal or accept he is gettig nothing in arb and then has 2 arb years (with 1 have no platform year since he is out this year)..
Realistically, the Os force him through arb with an offer of like 850k this year so he stays cost controlled (since if you start that low, by the end you are lucky to be hitting 3m)
He entered 2025 with 3 years of service time so he has 2 seasons of control left, one of which will be spent almost entire,y on rehabbing from his latest surgery.
He went through arbitration this year for the first time prior to the beginning of this season and he made $1MM, so realistically he’s gonna get around 1MM-2MM (Maybe more as he did pitch about half a season) if he goes through arbitration this year as your salary never goes down if you go through arbitration.
Unless of course he does agree to one of those 2 year pillow contracts.
@Kaz – He’s going to get more than 1 or 2 million this winter. And he didn’t go through arb this past season, he signed a 2 year deal 2 years ago that covered his first arb qualifying year.
He easily makes $3m in arb next year with all those saves and $5-7m in 2027.
How is he going to get such a significant arb raise in 2027 when he is barely going to pitch in 2026 (if at all)?
The most likely scenario is another low cost 2 year deal for 2026 and 2027 like the one he signed after his TJ surgery in 2023.
ARB has nothing to do with what he’s going to do, it’s based on past performance and service time. An additional year of service time will warrant a raise on whatever his 2026 salary ends up being.
A torn rotator cuff and a torn labrum, especially when they require simultaneous repair, represent a far more severe and complex rehabilitation process than Tommy John surgery. The success rate for pitchers to fully recover from rotator cuff/labrum repairs is historically lower than TJ and the average time to return to peak performance is longer. Pitching a baseball is an incredibly violent motion that relies on the shoulder’s intricate network of muscles and ligaments, so the primary concern is not just the time to return, but the ability to regain the high-end velocity and spin characteristics that defined his elite performance.
His past performance was predicated on a truly unique combination of velocity and movement. In his dominant 2023 season, his fastball averaged 99.1 mph with a high-end velocity that touched 103 mph. His splitter was a devastating secondary offering, generating a 54.1% whiff rate and a .086 batting average against. These are elite, game-changing metrics.
His brief return in 2025 following his TJ surgery showed some encouraging, although inconsistent, signs. His average fastball velocity was down slightly, hovering around 97.5 mph, and the spin efficiency on his four-seamer and gyro spin on his splitter were not quite at their 2023 levels. This is a common pattern for pitchers returning from a major arm procedure; the initial “feel” and velocity often take time to return. The fact that this shoulder injury occurred after a full year of rehabilitation from a different major arm surgery raises a red flag. It suggests that his arm’s overall durability is now a critical question mark. The biomechanical stress of a high-velocity delivery on an already compromised arm could have been a contributing factor to this new injury.
From a long-term perspective, Bautista’s future is now uncertain. At age 30, the time it will take him to rehab from this shoulder surgery and potentially regain his velocity puts him on a difficult path. The average age of a successful return for a pitcher from a rotator cuff repair is in the late 20s or early 30s. Missing the remainder of 2025 and a significant portion of 2026 means he’ll likely be 31 or 32 when he gets back on a major league mound, and that’s assuming a best-case scenario with no setbacks.
This is a devastating blow for the big guy, and I pray he makes a full recovery.
What is the point of this AI comment
he has a fair point that this is an injury with a low recovery rate and the mountain may never be the same again.
There are a few points there too- like he is already 30 with 161 big league innings to his name. He already had major surgery in the past year. So he is red flag galore, and potentially into non tendering territory if he does not take a 2-3 year pillow contract (maybe 3m to buy out the next 3 years since he is hitting arbitration injured coming off of missing almost a full year due to another injury, and will have nothing to push for a raise after the first year of arbitration due to this injury- 3m feels like a fair estimate of what he would get in his 3 arb years)
He will easily make $3m in arbitration just for 2026 to rehab. The arb system rewards saves. He’ll make $5-7m in 2026 in the final arb year. Could offer 2/$8m for cost stability but there is no world where you are getting an all-star closer (even often injured) for 3/$3m in his arb2, arb3 and 1 year FA.
Maybe guys that big aren’t meant to throw that hard. I dunno.
Randy Johnson, Andrew Miller, Adam Wainwright, Chris Sale, etc.
Those guys weighed 180-225. Chris Sale is built like a skeleton, lol. Felix Bautista is 6’8″, 285. That’s a lot of mass to be whipping around out there on the mound. Just saying.
He’s like a defensive end or possibly an athletic defensive tackle pitching baseball. His size is unusual, for sure.
Jonathan Broxton, CC Sabathia, Jon Rauch, Carlos Zambrano, Kenley Jansen.
These are all guys who were 6’4″ and above and weighed well over 250 lb, whose careers were pretty lengthy (at least 10 years for each). Not saying there are a ton of examples, but they exist.
The reality is that humans weren’t built to throw a baseball that hard/fast that many times. We just do it because hey, entertainment!
Jeury Familia was a big dude.
Jose Alvarado too.
Chris Sale is a starter. Felix is a closer. There’s less wear and tear when working about 1/4 – 1/3 the amount of innings than a starter.
He said “that big,” not “that tall.” Very clear distinction there.
I mean.. I don’t know what to say about Baltimore’s pitching.. just always terrible
There starter ERA has been tops in all of baseball the last month!
They’re over there with their blackberries.
In addition, the O’s won more games, combined, than any team in baseball in 2023 and 2024. Clearly, they didn’t accomplish that feat with terrible pitching. Maybe, just maybe, you should consider changing your name!
Baseball_dude loves being miserable and has never laid eyes on a half full glass of water, only half empty ones.
Yeah, because they went out and got an ace. Then he left for Arizona, and they replaced him with retreads and never weres. They banked on other injured arms to step forward and looks shocked when they….get injured again. Gee…who would see that coming?
The Orioles have always been stingy on pitching.
The Orioles have been stingy.
I hate to say it, this is essentially a career-ending injury.
He’ll come back in 2027 but throw 5+ ERA ball for a few years, (and that is assuming that there is a major league season in 2027.) Then bounce around the league on minor league deals for a few years after, before he is fully retired.
Best of luck to his next endeavor.
Wasn’t expecting to see “kick to the nuts” used in a sports article today.
I died and my soul left my body on that one. As an Os fan I really didn’t expect to laugh at all while reading this piece.
That raised my eyebrows,
Definitely caught me off guard, I was cracking up
Yeah, that one made me stop reading and head for the comments.
Balls > Nuts
This is a baseball site.
I demand a correction!
I swear, I am at a crossroads with how pitchers pitch today. They throw their arms off but it cannot be undone. We can never go back. They cannot make a law saying “you cannot throw that hard with that much spin.” Impossible.
How did the others do it? Was it Randy’s height? Was it just Pedro being Pedro? I dunno….
You mean they can’t go back and teach sound fundamentals like proper mechanics and pitch location rather than just “rock and fire”?
Rob Manfred is that you?
Nolan Ryan. Some people are just built different. Nolan threw every bit as hard as these guys, and he did it pitching 300+ innings a year for numerous years.
Pedro Martinez didn’t throw that hard.
Injured on the job?
Out for an extended time?
Call Morgan and Morgan..
For the Pitchers!
This message brought
To you by MLBPA..!
With all these injuries and trading away quite a few veterans, the Orioles have 2nd best record in AL since May 24 after the Blue Jays. For nearly 2 months, they had one of the worst record in ML. Since then, they have been playing better than 90 win pace. They will be quite formidable in 2026.
They might even finish in 4th place in 2026 💪
Mike Ellias “Executive of the Year” strikes again. Should of sold Bautista at the deadline. Once again he has failed. Outside of Cashman, Ellias has the longest leash in sports. Cashman makes the playoffs atleast. Ellias should be canned as soon at game 162 is over
He couldn’t sell off Felix at the deadline. Felix was already injured at that point.
He last pitched a week and a half before the deadline.
I’m pretty sure nobody was going to trade anything of value for a guy on the IL with a serious shoulder injury.
As an O’s fan, I can’t help but wonder if the 34 pitches he threw in that game,all stressful, didn’t cause the injuries. The O’s won the game, but at what cost? Would he have eventually torn the labrum and rotator cuff had he been removed at 25 pitches?
Likely yes. A labrum tear doesn’t just pop up unless you do massive stress like pick up a car or something extreme. It’s repeated stress and or bad form from lifting or similar activity with the arm stretching the arm out of normal position in the socket.
“Kick to the nuts”
So professional.
In fairness to the writer, it’s an apt description.
PG > PC
Shoulder is more complicated. A shame. Sixto Sanchez is basically out of baseball at 27 years old from shoulder issues.
And Woodruff is back pitching like a cy young contender…
Absolutely devastating news.
Add “closer” to the already lengthy offseason shopping list.
At least their not delaying surgery like did for nearly 2 years with Rodriguez.
Hahaha and O’s fans thought they deserved to get Andrew Painter for this dude who can never stay healthy and isn’t as good as Duran who we got without giving up any of our top 3 prospects. Delusional fan base.
Tommy John surgery has become routine and nearly 80% of players that have the procedure return to pitch in the majors again. More than 50% are as effective or more effective than before the surgery and recovery.
A labrum tear in a pitcher’s shoulder is far more serious. Only a handful have ever returned to be as effective as before the injury. Less than 30% return at all.
So is Bautista’s career over? I hope not. I really enjoyed watching him pitch. It is certainly more probable than seeing him return in 2027 pitching at the same level as he has in the past.
Prior to the 1990’s the injury Bautista suffered was a career ender. Lets hope it isn’t in his case.
It’s definitely not looking good.
2025 has been a truly cursed year for the Orioles. Ugh.
So many knowledgeable doctors to choose from…
What did you choose King Tuck?
This is really sad to see. A guy just figuring it all out, right place, right time, and was shining bright, then boom. All taken away. I just hope he can live the rest of his life without pain. As a pitcher, I think he’s pretty much done now. He’ll never be the same as he was.
Probably the end of the line for Bautista, or at least the end of his effectiveness. I feel bad for him and for O’s fans…
Who closes for Baltimore going forward for next season?
Tyler O’Neill
Too bad Tyler O’Neill is a broken down bodybuilder.
A pitcher.
Why cant we have nice things
If I were the O’s I’d think about non-tendering him. He’ll enter 2026 with 4+ years of service (at low millions) and pick up an entire season of service on the DL….so at best he enters 2026 making millions more with just one final season of control. Is one year at age 32 (of who knows what production) worth the money given up? Part of the 2027 season might be missed due to a lockout and he just missed a whole year due to TJS – all should come into play with the tender discussion. Maybe, see if he has any trade value come November 1st?
Assuming he misses all of ’26 rehabbing, he’s going come relatively cheap in ’27. No one knows if there will be a work stoppage and no team should make decisions based on that speculation. Yes, it is worth a gamble even for the O’s on his talent even though the odds aren’t great that he returns to form.
I’m still on the fence, that’s him taking up a 40 man spot from Nov to Apr. two winters in a row, when there’s no guarantee he’s productive in 2027.
Tbey put him on the 60-day IL ASAP so he doesn’t take up a spot.
that can’t happen till ST starts in late FEB
They can place him on today. Any player placed on the 60-day IL after Aug. 1st are ineligible to play for the rest of the season and post-season.
Of course they can do it now, but he has to be returned to the regular roster 5 days after the World Series ends. In which case he is wasting a valuable spot for 3 months.
“The latest kick in the nuts” is a pretty accurate description. At first I was unsure of the professionalism of using such a sentence but it does sum up the beginning of the season for the fans, players and management, and with injury upon injury upon injury upon injury, etc., it definitely tracks!
Brutal