Red Sox Finalizing Deal With Nathaniel Lowe

The Red Sox and first baseman Nathaniel Lowe are in the final stages of a contract, according to ESPN’s Jeff Passan.  MassLive’s Chris Cotillo reported earlier that Lowe and the Sox were in discussions and were “working on getting it done.”  Lowe is represented by SportsMeter.

The signing comes at little surprise, as reports linking the Sox to Lowe have been swirling since May, soon after Triston Casas was lost to what is likely to be a season-ending knee surgery.  Boston continued to show interest in Lowe prior to the trade deadline but no deal was reached with the Nationals.  After the Nats designated Lowe for assignment and placed him on waivers yesterday, Cotillo reported that the Sox were likely to make a play for the former Gold Glover, so it would appear that Lowe is now officially a free agent after clearing waivers.

Casas’ injury sparked quite a chain reaction in Boston’s season, as Rafael Devers’ subsequent refusal to play first base was one of the factors that led to Devers being traded to the Giants in June.  While the Sox looked around the market at Lowe and other trade options, the fill-in platoon of Abraham Toro and Romy Gonzalez performed respectably well, with Gonzalez in particular crushing left-handed pitching.  Since Lowe is a left-handed hitter, it stands to reason that Gonzalez will still get his share of at-bats when a southpaw is on the mound, and Toro could be the odd man out of the playing time equation.

The question now facing the Sox is what version of Lowe are they getting — the solid veteran who was a fixture as the Rangers’ first baseman from 2021-24, or the much-less productive Lowe who hit only .216/.292/.373 over 490 plate appearances with Washington.  These underwhelming numbers included a decent but uninspiring .235/.312/.421 slash line in 337 PA against right-handed pitching.

Even those splits represent an upgrade over Toro, plus there is more potential upside if the change of scenery returns Lowe to his past Rangers form.  The Red Sox are one of baseball’s better-hitting teams overall, though the club is more productive against left-handed pitching.  Boston’s collective 102 wRC+ against right-handers is tied for 15th among the 30 teams.

There is no financial risk for the Red Sox in adding Lowe since they’ll only be owing him the prorated portion of the MLB minimum salary.  That total will be subtracted from the roughly $2.33MM remaining on Lowe’s $10.3MM salary for the 2025 season, with the Nationals covering the remainder.  Lowe also has one final year of arbitration control remaining, but unless he goes on an absolute tear in Boston over the remainder of the season, the Sox are likely to non-tender him this winter rather than give him a raise on that $10.3MM figure.

It is safe to assume that the Red Sox probably just view Lowe as a stopgap for 2025, with Casas on the horizon for a return in 2026 and perhaps more of Boston’s up-and-coming prospects (i.e. Kristian Campbell, Jhostynxon Garcia) perhaps being viewed as first base candidates down the road.  Signing Lowe addresses one of the few weak links on a roster that shares the top AL wild card slot with the Mariners, and sits five games back of the Blue Jays for first place in the AL East.