The Tigers’ rotation received some brutal news, as manager A.J. Hinch announced to reporters that right-hander Spencer Turnbull will require Tommy John surgery (Twitter link via Evan Woodbery of MLive.com). The surgery will end Turnbull’s 2021 season and keep him out for the majority of the 2022 season as well.
It’s awful news for the player and a major blow to the Tigers as they begin to look toward turning the corner from their rebuild. The 28-year-old Turnbull established himself as an MLB-caliber hurler back in 2019 and has steadily improved since — culminating in this year’s no-hitter against the Mariners. Prior to landing on the injured list, he’d pitched to a 2.88 ERA with a below-average 21.9 percent strikeout rate, an excellent 6.0 percent walk rate and a huge 57.2 percent ground-ball rate. Dating back to 2019, Turnbull owns a 4.13 ERA in 255 innings.
The Tigers control Turnbull through the 2024 season, so there’s plenty of time for him to return to health and still make an impact with the club — if not in 2022 then certainly in 2023. In the meantime, he’ll head into his first trip through arbitration this winter with a strong but brief platform showing. He won’t have much of a chance in 2022 to build up innings and make a case for a substantial raise, making the injury a particularly poorly timed one from a financial perspective.
It’s also possible that were Turnbull healthy and continuing to thrive, as he had earlier this season, the Tigers would’ve been overwhelmed by a trade offer from a pitching-starved contender. Starting pitching is at a premium every year, but the supply is particularly thin in 2021 — and demand could be more robust than in a typical season. With three-plus years of club control remaining, the price would’ve been sky-high, but today’s injuries effectively removes the possibility altogether.
Terrible news for the Tigers. I hope he has a successful surgery and comes back better than before.
When there’s no more no hitters in less than 5 years by one guy and everyone wonders why just remember turnball and John Means. Means back has been bothering him ever since his no hitter he’s said in interviews.
I remember my first beer. Have a blast, kiddo.
What a tough break for Spencer AND the Tigers
this Tommy John guy must be well off
I hope he gets royalties.
Nearing the end of July, with most TJ surgery patients needing more than a year before returning. Makes 2022 unlikely for Spencer as well. Man does this stink.
Thoughts and prayers for a speedy recovery.
Turnbull seemed to turning into a decent back of the rotation starter after a mostly terrible rookie year. Unfortunate news for him
Back of the rotation? Detroit has higher hopes than that! He was basically the #1 in their rotation this year. Currently he was solid mid rotation with potential to still improve. He’ll be back!
Being number 1 by default and being a number 1 starter are two different things. Detroit’s hope is that Mize is the future number 1 there. Turnbull was turning things around but on most staffs he would be a middle/back end starter
Not saying Turnbull is an ace, but in no way would I consider him “back end” except on an elite team with 3-4 good/great starters.
Hoping for a speedy recovery. As a Mets fan, I can imagine what DET fans feel. We lost Matt Allan to TJS.
What do they do when a pitcher like Turnbull has an injury but is arbitration eligible. Do the Tigers have to pay him full value knowing he won’t pitch next year?
Depends on what they mutually agree on, or what the arbiter decides.
I don’t think the Tigers will try to “cheap” him; maybe 1.5M for 2021 with some performance incentives in the event he comes back early?
Wow
R.I.P.
He was so young
He ain’t DEAD for Chrissakes!!!!
In The Book of Dombrowski, Chapter 33, verse 34: “And the DD sayeth to the multitudes: ‘Those who live by the prospect will die by the prospect’.
(King Morosi Version)
dang…
2022 starting staff should be from among this group: Mize Skubal Manning Peralta Faedo Lange Wentz (Ty Madden?). I think Boyd will be traded any day now, and chances are Avila will sign his usual veteran burnout. Torkelson & Greene should be given every opportunity to make the team in the spring.
Hard to trade anyone when they are injured. Don’t see Boyd getting moved this deadline, and this injury to Turnbull may make an extension more desirable.
Peralta is pitching off a minor league deal. He’ll be a free agent after the season. If he keeps this up he’s going to look for 2-3 years. Even a one year won’t be cheap. I wouldn’t assume the Tigers will be able to sign him.
Me? (If anybody is asking) I would make him a 2 year offer the day after the season ends. Maybe with a 3rd year club option. Would $10 million for 2 years be enough? If he continues to mow them down as he has. He looks for real.
I think that is a reasonable gamble for the Tigers and one that Peralta should consider given that he was riding a bus a month ago. $10 mill. is financial security for his family.
Tigers gonna need to sign at least 2 starters for ’22. They need to sign a quality SS this off season too. This is the year to get one.
Avila/Illitch gonna spend? Tigers could be looking at adding $50-70 million in payroll for next year.
I would be surprised if they did.
making the injury a particularly poorly timed one from a financial perspective.
Like anyone plans to get hurt
Tough break for Tigers, but even worse for Turnbull. He basically loses 22, and will probably struggle in 23 until he finds the new him. I really feel for the guy, he’ll be 30 before he’s back right
The last 2-3 innings of a no-hitter are all high-torque pitches delivered while fatigued. Unprecedented stuff for today’s arms.
SKIP A START AFTERWARD!
Been railing about this for awhile, even on this guy’s post-gem piece here. How do these clubs not see it. So obvious, John Means, sorry. Tried to warn you..
Joe Musgrove has not been at all the same for another inevitable example. This isn’t 1963 and they aren’t Spahn and Marichal. The training, pitch types and arm conditioning are each completely different factors.
Exceptions may exist. Why risk seeing if you’re one of them? Nolan Ryan once pitched 275 blazers and hi-torque curves. Freak of nature. The rest of us mortals must abide by the inevitable snapping of the twines if were not going to be smarter than we’ve been.
Obviously no one will ever know what Turnbull’s tendon status was beforehand, and all MLB arms have UCL wear by some point. But the demarcation line for the last few seasons of no-hit games seems so clear. SKIP A START! SAVE A UCL!
Skip a start – or as an earlier post suggests don’t go for the one-off, no-hit complete game glory. Not remotely worth it. Go 7 then hand it off to the pen. If one goes 9, skip a start, That special fatigue needs special healing time.
Neanderthal and macho thinking leads to this. They’ve come a long way in load managing. Why this example escapes them seems so needless.
Well crap.
You are 100% right! Its painfully obvious that he pushed himself too far for the no hitter, but few managers would have taken him out of that game. I suspect the damage was already done, but the least the team could do was let him skip a start. He pitched the game of his life against Seattle and now must suffer the consequences….seems wholly unfair .
Catastrophic all around, what a bummer…
Turnbull is going to have a hard time making any real money playing the game… he won’t be back until 30, and he’ll still be under team control until 2025 when he’d be 31, and that’s assuming he can make it back from this and still be effective. That is brutal.
The Tigers are playing for a meaningless second place this season, but losing him for next season really stinks.
Items mentioned here were points raised in critique of Al’s strategy this off-season. 1) not going after more tradable pitchers. Here we are, not much to trade and stressing for arms,.and stressing young arms that should have only now been brought up to replace the guys we should have traded.
2) Not having team options on those one year contracts. They increase trade value and…….give the team options. If you give a guy a chance to show in the show, then you deserve a percentage or a reward of some sorts…..
Strong arm tactics work very well, Al.
Uh, Teheran and Urena were durable arms. “More tradable pitchers?” The Tigers weren’t in a position to compete with win-now teams for the services of better pitchers unless they just outbid them. Then you’d be complaining they overpaid! I do agree with you on team options however.
Damn.