Last week’s trades of Anthony Rizzo, Javier Baez, and Kris Bryant were painful for Cubs fans. Rizzo had been a Cub for 9.5 years. Baez was drafted by the Cubs and his tenure lasted a decade. Bryant was with the team for eight years after being drafted. By 3pm Friday, all three were in different uniforms. We can debate separately why it came to this, but today the question is, where do the Cubs go from here?
Let’s take stock of what the Cubs currently have at each position.
Catcher
Willson Contreras, 29, is under team control through 2022. As Contreras put it recently, “This is the only team I’ve played for, and if they want to rebuild around me, I’m happy to talk.” Given GM Jed Hoyer’s frustration in failing to lock up Rizzo, Baez, and Bryant, the Cubs may not necessarily be able to match up with Contreras, in which case an offseason trade would make sense.
22-year-old Miguel Amaya, the heir apparent, currently sports an odd Double-A batting line of .215/.406/.304. FanGraphs’ Eric Longenhagen recently downgraded Amaya to a 45 grade, on account of a relative lack of power. He hasn’t played since June 3rd due to an injury.
There are no franchise catchers in the 2021-22 free agent class, so the Cubs have all of 2022 to figure out if their future starter behind the dish will be Contreras, Amaya, or neither.
First Base
Rizzo was a mainstay at first base for the Cubs since 2012, but he was traded to the Yankees last Thursday. Last March, Ken Rosenthal and Patrick Mooney of The Athletic reported the Cubs offered him a five-year, $70MM extension. Technically, the Cubs could bring Rizzo back in the offseason, but that will probably only happen if he finds the open market terribly disappointing. And even in that case, he may prefer to play for a team with a better shot at reaching the playoffs.
In Rizzo’s absence, Patrick Wisdom has been playing first base for the Cubs. Wisdom, who turns 30 later this month, owns a 142 wRC+ in 186 plate appearances this year. More time will be needed to determine whether Wisdom is a valuable late bloomer, or if he’s a journeyman having a good couple of months. Wisdom is nowhere near free agency and won’t even be arbitration eligible until after 2023, so the Cubs can afford to give him regular playing time in 2022. He’s played more third than first base, so that could be his ultimate spot. The Cubs could also take a look some point at Alfonso Rivas, who has a 130 wRC+ at Triple-A despite modest power.
This winter the Cubs could hit the market for a veteran placeholder in the mold of Brandon Belt or C.J. Cron, if they decide to play Wisdom mostly at third base in 2022.
Second Base
The Cubs were surprisingly able to land Nick Madrigal from the White Sox for Craig Kimbrel in one of their trade deadline deals. Madrigal, 25 in March, is under team control through 2026. He’s out for the season due to a torn hamstring, but figures to be a mainstay in the Cubs’ lineup for years.
Shortstop
In 2019, Baez settled in as the Cubs’ everyday shortstop, a year after he finished second in the MVP voting. He was a fan favorite, but again, the Cubs couldn’t find common ground on a contract extension. Baez was traded to the Mets, where he’ll play shortstop until Francisco Lindor returns from an injury, and then switch to second base to finish out the season alongside his friend.
Last April, Jon Heyman of MLB Network reported that in spring 2020, the Cubs offered Baez a contract in the range of $160-170MM. ESPN’s Buster Olney suggested the $180MM range. That’s not an amount I expect Baez to approach in free agency this winter, especially with significant competition at shortstop. This is a case where the Cubs keeping the door open to a reunion could potentially matter, but like Rizzo he’d still have to experience a disappointing market first. The lack of a collective bargaining agreement could further complicate matters.
Under the Theo Epstein regime, the Cubs were not opposed to making a free agent strike if they liked the player, even if their perceived competitive window was not yet open. The idea worked poorly with Edwin Jackson, and well with Jon Lester. In that sense, it wouldn’t be crazy to see the Cubs make a run at one of the jewels of the 2021-22 free agent class, Corey Seager or Carlos Correa. Both are young enough that if 2022 and ’23 turn out to be rebuilding years for the Cubs, they’d still have a portion of the player’s prime. The players might require a premium to enter into a rebuilding situation.
On the other hand, the Cubs’ $126MM deal for Yu Darvish will be nearly three years in the past when free agency opens, and the Ricketts family has not been flexing financial muscle in the interim. The Cubs have only about $40MM committed to the 2022 payroll, with Jason Heyward, Kyle Hendricks, and David Bote.
Barring an unlikely major free agent signing, the Cubs’ future at shortstop involves Nico Hoerner and Ed Howard. Hoerner figures to play the position in the immediate future. Howard, who the Cubs drafted 16th overall out of high school last summer, might be the long-term answer. Cristian Hernandez may be in that discussion as well, but both teenagers are several years away.
Third Base
Wisdom and Bote should be in the mix for the Cubs at the hot corner next year, with Matt Duffy headed to free agency. Prospect Christopher Morel hasn’t done much with Double-A pitching so far this year, but if he figures it out he’ll enter the third base picture. Even if Wisdom works out as a big league regular, the Cubs will be lacking at whichever infield corner he doesn’t play. The free agent market doesn’t offer any exciting players, aside from Bryant.
Left Field
Ian Happ has drawn the Cubs’ left field assignment of late, though he’s having an abysmal year. Making $4.1MM through arbitration this year, he won’t get much of a raise this winter, so the Cubs can afford another year to see if he can regain his hitting stroke. A stopgap veteran addition would also make sense, with free agency featuring Andrew McCutchen, Tommy Pham, Mark Canha, and even players the Cubs have already tried like Kyle Schwarber and Joc Pederson.
Center Field
The Cubs are well-covered here, as prospect Brennen Davis was recently ranked 30th in the game by Baseball America. Davis is playing well at Double-A this year, with a .267/.383/.515 line. BA has suggested he may eventually move to right field, and at Double-A he’s spent more time in center but a fair bit in right. You can safely pencil Davis in at one of those two spots – probably in late April next year once he’s done “working on his defense” (wink, wink).
Meanwhile in the Majors, with Happ struggling and Jake Marisnick traded, Rafael Ortega is attempting to win the Cubs’ regular center field job. After a recent home run binge, the 30-year-old is up to a 144 wRC+ in 123 plate appearances. Like Wisdom, it’s too early to say whether Ortega will establish himself as an above average big leaguer. But the Cubs are in good position to let Ortega try for the rest of the year, and into 2022 if it goes well.
Right Field
With a 63 wRC+ this year, Jason Heyward’s offense has been reminiscent of his first year with the Cubs, when he surprisingly slumped to a 72 mark. If his struggles persist, the Cubs are going to have better uses of the playing time. Heyward is owed $44MM from 2022-23. He remains the one large contract on the Cubs’ books, but only two years remain.
Greg Deichmann, who joined the Cubs in the Andrew Chafin trade with Oakland, is a name to watch in the team’s right field mix. He posted a .433 OBP for the Triple-A Las Vegas Aviators and should be in the Majors soon. The Cubs have a slew of other outfield prospects in the system, but most of them are further away.
Starting Rotation
Kyle Hendricks continues to be the rock of the Cubs’ rotation. The low-key veteran can be retained through 2024 if the Cubs pick up his club option. While Hendricks could be traded this winter, the 31-year-old soft-tosser could also be part of the next Cubs contender. Hendricks seems like he’ll age gracefully, since he’s not dependent on velocity.
Adbert Alzolay has shown enough to have a rotation spot locked down for next year. He’s got a 4.85 ERA in 19 starts, which isn’t great, but he probably won’t continue to see a quarter of his flyballs leave the yard. Alzolay’s struggles against left-handed hitters have been pronounced, however: 19 home runs in 196 batters faced. Still, the bar is pretty low to be in the Cubs’ 2022 rotation. Alec Mills will still be around next year to fill a swingman role.
Justin Steele and Keegan Thompson are being stretched out for looks in the Cubs’ rotation down the stretch. These are not pitchers the prospect hounds get particularly excited about, but the Cubs have plenty of opportunity for anyone who can capitalize. Prospect gurus do get excited about Brailyn Marquez, who Baseball America ranked as the 99th-best prospect in the game. However, the 22-year-old has yet to pitch this year due to a shoulder strain. Caleb Kilian, acquired in the Bryant deal, has pitched well at Double-A, so we could see him in the Majors relatively soon.
As it stands now, the Cubs simply don’t have the pitching in-house to get through the 2022 season, let alone compete. It’s a rotation ripe for opportunistic free agent signings, a place where guys like Dylan Bundy or James Paxton can look to get their careers back on track before getting flipped for prospects.
Bullpen
The Cubs’ bullpen has been stripped of its three highest-leverage relievers: Kimbrel, Ryan Tepera, and Andrew Chafin. Codi Heuer, acquired in the Kimbrel deal, will take a spot. Beyond him, I assume the Cubs will look to replicate one of their few successes of the previous offseason: the signings of Tepera and Chafin for a total of $3.55MM. The goal will be to sign another batch of veteran relievers, coax good first halves out of them, and trade them for prospects at the deadline.
Conclusion
After all the star players were purged, the Cubs are frankly low on present talent. For 2022, they’ve got massive holes throughout their lineup and pitching staff. Their farm system has Davis plus various interesting players, but it’s not teeming with blue-chip prospects like the Rays, Mariners, Blue Jays, or Tigers. Given their market size, it doesn’t seem like the Cubs should be dropping down to a bottom-10 payroll in the game. But an analysis of the roster and farm system suggests the Cubs cannot spend their way back into contention, at least not in the 2021-22 offseason alone. Last time it was a three-year rebuild, and to contend again with anything less will be a difficult or expensive feat.
They wait. Trade Davies in offseason and you’re set. Then you play the waiting game until prospects come up
Davies is a free agent. Idk how you’re trading a dude who’s a free agent.
spotrac.com/mlb/chicago-cubs/zach-davies-18158/
They should have dealt him at the deadline.
Doubt he gets a QO. If he does he’s taking it as he has not pitched all that well this year. He’ll get offers to be a #4/#5 innings eater veteran sure but not top tier money based on his performance this year.
Oh, then they should have traded him. Let him walk in FA
They would have got very little for him.
I think they need to worry about starting pitching. Do what Z and Harris did in SF and buy low on FA starters. I think they’ll need to get at least 2 and maybe 3 SP’s this winter. Seager will be 28 next year and would make sense for them too
Dodgers wont be out bidding for Seager. That’s part of the reason they acquired Turner. He’s their SS next year and probably beyond. They have plenty of in house 2B/3B options.
Exactly, Dodgers withdrew from that market when they got Turner.
Considering the plethora of SS options next year that market could move really slowly, impacting teams abilities to sign other positions. Freidman once again proved his worth. Stud SS, free to move about the market as he pleases.
Cubs should have traded Kimbrel to Dodgers for Gavin Lux
Yeah. After this season the Dodgers will QO Seager and then show him the door.
Isn’t he basically a Madrigal?
They outbid for Lester heyward Darvish kimbrel
Hopefully to the bottom of the division for years and years to come LOL
You wish. I’m not even a Cubs fan and I can see what they’re doing — collecting blue chip prospects from trades and drafts, and then using their vast financial resources to load up on talent in a year or two — is gonna work. They’ll be back by 2024 latest.
IF the prospect return pans out.
They do have a lot of money coming off the books but their farm system is trash.
All those trades they made definitely propelled that farm up, but we will see how many are duds and how many are impact players.
They’re still valuable resources even if they need more time to develop. They can also flip them for MLB players if the Cubs think they’re ready to run again with a few FA signings similar to the Padres.
Fangraphs already disagreed with you, and that’s before the deadline additions to the cub’s farm. I think you might be projecting, seeing as the brewers have one of the bottom 5 farms in the mlb. Great top 3 starters, but seeing as SPing is the most volatile asset in the game, its not exactly bankable.
Trash? Wait until the newest rankings come out. Prior to they were middle of the pack. Before any of the breakouts too of some of their farm folks.
Cubs probably are looking at a top 10-12 farm.
Brewers fans. Ugh. Wisconsin in general. Ugh.
Fangraphs has them ranked #8, though Brennen Davis is the only blue chip.
There farm system is now 9th according to fangraphs, 7th by BP. They began the year at 18. Nice try though.
Blue chip prospects. Uh, where?
Enjoy Theo’s “dumpster divin” acquisition in Kimbrel.
I fully recall all your comments about him on signing and throughout his first year in the Cubbie blue when he struggled.
Enjoy. You have multiple integral pieces on your team thanks to the GM work of Theo.
The White Sox have multiple integral pieces on the team thanks to the mis-calculations and poor roster development of Theo. There I fixed it for you.
No, you fixed nothing. You’re pathetic and always have been. Folks like you are why the Sox are often disregarded and found to be annoying — their fans. There. I stated the obvious.
Chill, dude. No need to personally attack the guy for disagreeing with you.
FTFY is a tone. He took a tone and I responded in kind. He could’ve approached with one in a more polite disagreeing manner. (This is the Sox fan approach – assy tone and behavior and they deserve it in kind.)
The two Sox fans in this thread are the most annoying of the bunch.
Just another whiny cubs fan… If you did a poll, I’m pretty sure cubs fans are far more disliked than most other fan bases aside from maybe the Yankees…
Dawesome – white sox fans worse than cub fans? Thanks for the best laugh I’ve had all day. Cubs fans are by far the worst.
Sit this one out, Steve.
It doesn’t matter what any White Sox fans say about Cubs fans. It is from being insecure about their own team. They know that however successful they are they will still be the second MLB team in Chicago. The Cubs average about 4500 more fans per home game this year being a mediocre team most of the year and the White Sox being one of the best. Enough said.
Giolito getting pounded again . Worry about your team.
Well usually the more popular and successful teams are more hated league wide. Sox are one of the least distinguished teams in baseball, tied for the least amount of Pennants and least amount of playoff appearances. Cubs had a drought just like the Sox, but at least they won a few pennants in that time.
Ricketts family doesn’t want to spend close to the luxury tax. This is fast becoming the Cubs of the 90s, owned by a frugal financial giant (like the Tribune Co).
Not true. They’ve had a top 3 payroll for years and have a bunch of cap room now. They will spend this offseason, just like they have since signing Lester.
This 100%
Cubs should give up their team to Las Vegas
Why would the Cubs go to Vegas? They aren’t the second most popular team in their own city. That’s the White Sox. The same white Sox who have been out drawn by the Cubs since 1991! Hahaha. In fact, it’s been floated around recently that once Reinsdorf croaks, his son (who’s way more interested in the Bulls) will give away the team and hopefully move them out of Chicago. Hopefully one day!
Thanks Tim, great article, but it really made being a Cub fan right now terribly depressing.
I don’t see it that way. Dude I am a Cardinals fan. What’s the point of having good players if you are a 500 team? Thats where we are stuck. Spending money poorly chasing old glory. I like what the Cubs did take next year off and come 2023 they will be good again. The money is there to spend when it makes sense. But why spend it when the rest of the team isn’t good enough?
Dude, dude. Joel, dude. Dude!
“What’s the point of having good players if you are a 500 team? ”
Bravo! You – someone – finally said it.
Successful teams aren’t being built like it’s a rotisserie league – get guys with nice stats and / or reputations at each position.
Teams are built around the Catcher whether fans recognize it or not (why do you think Rizzo suddenly was talking Trea Turner to the Dodgers – it was because Keibert Ruiz – a 23 year-old Catcher with 4-5 years of control will join Soto as the beginning of the next core as opposed to a 30 y/o SS that will be a FA in a year). Pitching comes next – starting pitching especially takes years to develop. You get a couple of guys in-house as starters and prime bullpen people. Then look to sign and trade for others over a few years. You have to find guys that can defend at SS and CF, as well as guys that can get on base at the top of the order, and others that can be run producers. From there you fill in the team.
This article is how fantasy league players think, and how most posters here think. In no way is this how professional, successful FO’s view their teams construction – in rebuilds, reconstruction, or tweaking as a contender. The objective ultimately is to give a roster of players to a manager that he can use, then to modify that roster as needed multiple time within a season.
P.S. Yes, the Cardinals GM has been grasping at straws for years. Cardinals tradition is now high-tech……and in Houston.
I honestly see them turning around and signing Bryant, Baez and Rizzo in free agency.
If the three of them and Dorothy can bring the Ricketts’ the broom of the Wicked Witch of the West, perhaps.
Ha ha ha ha ha.
Rizzo’s public comments seem to make this scenario unlikely. Ricketts tried to work home-town contract extensions with the three players and none of them took it..
I don’t know why anyone would rush to sign Rizzo. He looks to be in decline and he’ll be seeking a deal as if he’s gonna have multiple prime years ahead of him. One way or another, whoever signs him is gonna end up overpaying for at least as much decline as paying for prime.
Hometown extensions or what they’ll likely get this off-season???
Cubs are broke!
Can’t sign any of them.
Cubs are making more money than the Sox just based on attendance. The Sox are a top tier team this year and the Cubs still average 4500 more fans per home game. If anything is btoke it’s your logic.
*something* *something* YoU’Re A bIaSeD wEbSiTe OwNeR
unless the team wants to spend this offseason, they probably need a full rebuild
I wouldn’t be against selling off Hendricks, Contreras, and other assets if the market is right, but with so much money off their books, and only 2 years left on Heyward’s deal, they could realistically buy several free agents in what appears to be one of the deepest classes ever, and then pounce if the market doesn’t develop for some of the mid tier FAs. The cards, brewers, and reds won’t be running away with the division anytime soon. The pirates are likely still a yr or 2 away. Fielding a solid but flawed team in 2022 and approaching it similar to 2021 is probably the route they go, unless they get massive offers for Contreras or Hendo in the offseason. Then they see how the dice rolls, and if they’re a middling team again, they likely repeat what we just saw a few days ago, albeit with a different set of assets.
The.Cubs are doing the right thing. They weren’t catching the Brewers and they weren’t good enough to beat out the runner up NL west clubs for a wildcard berth.
Good article.
This was just a tough situation. Teams go through this all the time. The Nationals had to let Harper and Rondon walk. The Red Sox had to trade Betts. It’s just the big three all hit free agency at the same time, so it was three times as excruciating.
Honestly, these three guys had been trending down for years. So has the entire team as a whole. Bryant was always going to test free agency. Rizzo has a bad back and is nearing his mid 30’s. He isn’t worth Goldschmidt money (neither is Goldschmidt). If Baez turned down $180 mill, that’s on him. He’s not a $300 million guy. I’m not trying to be on the side of the front office here, but it seems that he just threw his hands up in the air and decided to move on. They got a ton of teenagers they can develop or flip for guys in a year or two if they’re on the verge of contending.
The most frustrating thing as a Cubs fan is how a “potential” dynasty just kind of fizzled out. People want to say the Rickets are super cheap, but they signed Darvish, Lester, Kimbrel, Hayward to monster deals. The core dudes just never really continued to improve.
I agree with you .It will be interesting to see where these guys land in free agency and for how much money. I think all but KB will find a softer market than they expected. Until a new CBA is agreed to…. I see free agency not being kind to any player.
The team did the right thing in trading “the core”. Noe were going to resign at reasonable numbers. And the Cubs just haven’t seemed hungry since the World Series win. Some of that is on the players and some of that is on the manager. I had hoped Ross would be a bit less of a players manager and kicked some of these guys in the butt. Hasn’t happened.
The plan was executed. It was never gonna be a dynasty. They traded tons of GOOD young talent while they were competing. It was a 5 year or so window and then time to blow it up. And thats what they did. It’s easy to see the plan.
I think they banked on their player dev system to churn out more players then it did; ala what the cards have been doing forever (finding gems in the mid to late rounds that become integral parts of the team). That, coupled with regression of a lot of the team, as well as their “stars” wanting superstar deals when there are clear question marks, made this outcome inevitable. I genuinely believe Theo and Jed overestimated most of their own players, while they lost critical supporting personnel to being hired away by other teams, which happens when you enjoy the success they did in their 6 year run. The question is, will the changes that have been implemented on the farm (and in the draft room) the last couple years lead to better results at the big leage level in the next few seasons?
Yes, this. It wasn’t only the big three. You had Russell, Schwarber, Almora, Happ. You could even say Bryant’s career has been pretty disappointing, especially with how strong he came out the gate. Sustained success in baseball is really hard.
Almora and Happ unexpectedly failed. But the team never had the pitching the Caridnals did. That was what was keeping things going in St Louis up until this season. Cubs never had anything close to that so they always knew it wasn’t gonna last. You can buy a couple pitchers but you can’t go buy an entire rotation.
To be fair, the cardinals get supplemental draft picks that make selecting someone that works out an easier possibility. Which is absurd. Look at their payroll.
Dexter Fowler and Ben Zobrist were the straws that stirred the drink in 2015-16. They had great years and were always on base for that core and Theo/Jed never replaced it.
Well Zobrist was basically a unicorn. Hard guy to replace.
His ex figured it out….
Well, sure. But I was really referring to high OBP guys that for whatever reason, they never were able to replace
Nebraska
The Cubs will be in last place again for awhile trading spots with the Pirates back and forth but I get the rebuild. Sounds like players got disrespected by offers they made.
The Cubs will suck for a year or 2. But after that all this young talent will be ready and they will spend again. And the Cardinals will be sitting on their hands clinging to Oldschmidt and Arenado.
The cubs aren’t going into next season with a 50 million dollar payroll. 100 million dollars can solve a lot of problems. They just need to be smart about who they sign and for how long. I’d imagine they also have a lot 1 year flyer deals to trade at next years deadline.
As a fan would you rather the payroll was 50 million in 2022 and 200 million in 2023. Or 100 million in 2022 and 150 in 2023?
I know what I would want.
I want them to make smart signings. Go out next year and sign an impact player long term and then sign upside players to short term contracts that can be flipped at the deadline. They can use their money to purchase prospects at the deadline next year.
Did “smart signings” get you the only championship of your lifetime?
No it didn’t. What got them there was blowing it up and waiting until they had a legit team.
There is more than one way to skin a cat. They are in a much much better position then they were in 2011. A big signing this year, 1-2 next year, a prospect or two hit and this team will look very good.
If your franchise has 1 championship in 100 years I say try what worked to get that 1 championship again. And short of trading Contreras it looks like they are doing just that. I would keep Hendriks because anyone with the stuff that he has that can be as successful he has I gotta believe can help the young guys.
What? Engage in another 100 year plan??? Liam Hendriks plays for the White Sox. Just kidding… Kyle Hendricks has the kind arm/delivery that looks to age well. They will sign role players to fill roster and try to develop their minor league players. Once there are several young players performing I’m sure they will sign some free agents.
You may be waiting a very long time. Last time, they knew guys like Soler, Almora, Baez, Bryant, and Schwarber were coming. This time, other than Brennan Davis, who could be with the Cubs as early as next year, it’s hard to pinpoint a ETA on these very young players. If you wait until they are all major league ready, it might be 3-4 years. The fan base won’t be happy and Ricketts and Hoyer said today, that they are not doing it that way again.
As long as they are smart with free agent signings in the off-season, no reason not to be competitive within the division next year while not getting into bloated long term contracts that jeopardize the future.
My hope, as Ive said many times, is they use the nest of money they are afforded to help expediate this cause –
The easiest trade I see for them is Hendriks for Justin Upton
I like Contraras for Will Meyers as well –
Those are the last 2 bullets, maximize the pull back w 2 huge expiring’s from GM’s who will be up against cap and facing heat from the fans. That won’t be the end of the saga but its the best possible start out the gates you will get
As an Angels fan, I’ll totally take that Upton for Hendricks trade..
They would need a ton of prospect capital to be incentivized to make those deals seeing Contreras and Hendricks have value and wouldn’t be pure salary dumps
Why would the Cubs make either of those trades???
If the cubs decide to punt 2022, and the angels and padres put a lot of prospect capital in those deals, then I could see a scenario where they would do it. If its straight up, then its completely unrealistic.
Thats why I said “we’d” take that trade.. a straight up one for one seems very much in the Angels favor.
Upton’s 2022 year with the angels is gonna cost $28 million…
Ofc they aren’t straight up
I really didn’t think I had to include that
Ultimate troll proposal.
Smh,
You have to write in crayon around here these days; I give up
This is not his first time trying to push that trade.
Sure you do, it’s a great trade for the Padres and a horrible trade for the Cubs.
Davies who the Cubs got as a part of a sickening return when they gave Darvish to San Diego will be a free agent after this year. Taking him with the thought of trading him at the deadline and no one else wanted him, nice job Jed Hoyer. The guaranteed salary on the books for 2022 gives the Cubs over $100 million to spend rebuilding the team, however Cubs ownership won’t spend much of it because they’re too busy trying to buy every building in the neighborhood while crying how poor they are. The same owner who talked about “sustained success” fields a minor league team while laughing as he gives the middle finger to the fans..
Davies is a back end starter not a playoff starter imo. I could see why nobody wanted him.
It seems like he NEVER makes it past the 5th inning. One of his last starts, I turned the game on in the 4th, and he was already around 85 pitches. For all the chatter around him, I say buyer beware.
Better revisit that Darvish trade. Most analysts no longer see it as lopsided. The prospects are raking and Darvish is struggling without the spider tac. Currently sporting a 3.5 ERA.
Cassie has a 1.2 OPS and Perciado .940 and Mena is heating up himself. They got rid of Darvish contract and added some really good prospects with big upside years away.. it was never about Davies
You should do some research on the young players they got for Darvish. They are killing it, and 2 of them are already considered some of the top prospects for Cubs. Meanwhile, Darvish ERA, his last 8 games is over 5.00. Trade is looking better and better.
I would imagine they rebuild like any other team does, but with more money to spend probably/thread.
A good article. Captured the key points. The reality is the Cubs future 2022 and 2023 for sure, looks bleak. I would not be surprised if the Cubs trade Hendricks and or Contreras during the off season. GM Hoyer himself admits he does not know how long it will take for the team to contend. It depends on how quickly the prospects advance, the CBA and free agent signings (Money To Spend).
They have to be dealt Imo –
I think for what its worth Contreras will be the only one worth his next contract out of KB Rizzo Baez and him, especially to the Cubs in general (Not that I think there will be any interest to sign Rizzo KB or Baez back in 4 months) –
A Sal Perez type situation with Contreras wouldn’t be the worst idea in the world as long as he was on board for a couple down years early in the contract. With the DH coming you could probably get him some 1b/DH time as well to keep him touch fresher for duration of contract
If as Hoyer said yesterday, he doesn’t want a long rebuild like 2010, then they absolutely need something to build on. Contreras is a rock to build a staff around and Hendricks, though not a #1 or #2 is as steady and affordable as any pitcher in the game and a great level headed pro to stabilize the kids coming up who may start. Unless he’s blown away by an offer, I think he keeps em.
The Phillies would like to welcome you to perpetual hell. Can’t go full rebuild, can’t compete enough to do anything.
Ha! But the Cubs aren’t up against the luxury tax line anymore like the Phils and have a top 10 farm system now. The rebuild can be looking pretty good by 2023 (a year shorter than the previous one).
They look nothing like the Phillies whatsoever.
Welcome aboard, Cubs fans! See you on the other side, for better or worse…
As my Cubs fan girlfriend said “they’re back to be the Cubs I’ve always known.” She’ll still watch every game though.
If she loves watching baseball, change that girlfriend business to wife.
Pretty much is besides the piece of paper lol. Together 8 years this month.
They started the rebuild while these guys still had value… Blue Jays should’ve done the same thing with the previous core of players we had. But we got absolutely nothing in return. Good for the Cubs.
The Jay’s are a mess. There’s about 5 teams in the league that are in total denial. My team the Cardinals is one and the Jay’s are another. It seems like the Jay’s get impatient and because of that never really get anywhere. Plus that’s a tough division.
So in summary, the Cubs are going to stink next year.
Not like DBacks or Orioles stink, but maybe like Tigers stink?? Totally joking my friend. Detroit is not far off. Hinch has them in good shape IMO. Lots of high end talent coming (and there already). I’m from northern Indiana, so it’s all Cubs, White Sox, and Tigers where I’m at. All 3 are fun to watch…..well maybe just 2 now
Montreal?
They have the $ to make two nice splashes. Maybe Castellanos and either Gausman or Stroman. I’d think Manuel Rodriguez is being groomed for the closer role.
After reading Hoyer’s comments yesterday, I just don’t see them pursuing any of these guys, nor will they be that inclined to come back.. Baez, I would say is 100 percent, not coming back. Sounds like the Cubs had made their final offer, and whether it was 160 or 180, they won’t offer him that now. Hoerner/Madrigal is the up the middle defense moving forward. Rizzo is beloved, but they had years to lock up “the Captain”, and they clearly just don’t see eye to eye on his value. Will always be a favorite player of mine, wherever he lands. I believe Bryant will sign wherever the most money is offered, and that won’t be in Chicago (not on the North Side anyway), That doesn’t make him a bad guy either. For all the anti-Bryant talk the last couple years, I always found him to be a seemingly great part of the team, and I think he liked it there too. I like the idea of extending Willy C, and letting him become the leader of this team, ala Yadi Molina. Kyle retires in Chicago. Jake limps to the end of the season, and says goodbye…again. To end my incredibly long take (sorry about that), these guys will ALWAYS be loved by the Cubs faithful. An unforgettable bunch. They gave us the greatest season of our lives. A very strong run, 2015-2020. A lot of wins, and it was an absolute blast to watch. Time to see if Jed can build us the next great thing to watch…….
Hoerner will play center. They will likely sign Simien to a 3 year deal to bridge the gap to Howard/Hernandez/ Presciado.
While we’re all entitled to an opinion, there has been zero talk about Hoerner being a potential CF, and if you look at his baseball ref page, his CF experience is virtually nonexistent. The thought that “all SS can play CF” is pretty shortsighted. And “likely” to sign Semien? Yeah, I don’t see that at all.
He will get a lot of time in center this year after he is off the IL. He has already played center much better than Happ. There is a bunch of ss available this year and Hoerner has shown he doesn’t have the arm for short full time. After the cubs sign Simien you can post your mea culpa, that will satisfy me.
I seriously doubt he would be everyday CF. Utility player who plays some outfield, maybe.
I disagree that Steele & Thompson are not good prospects. The prospect gurus have not seen their big league adjustments & now Steele is in Iowa starting. His last start was excellent and he reached 98 with his 4-seamer. That same 4-seamer was on Fangraphs as one of the hardest-to-hit in the game! Thompson also has nasty stuff but it’s his bulldog approach that the Cubs love. Both pitchers plus Alzolay will start in ‘22. In addition, there’s tons of young pitching on the way! Unlike 2013-14 when team was loaded with hitting in the minors, this time the system seems to be more balanced with pitching slightly ahead of the hitting in ETA. Jed is doing the rebuild again but this time the floor is much higher.
You’re correct; the national prospect experts haven’t factored in the leap forward in stuff. Steele looks like a different prospect than he did several years ago, although there still is above average injury concern. His curve was his best pitch several years ago, but now with his velocity uptick, and wipeout slider, its moved into 3rd place
I won’t pretend to be an expert on scouting those two.
Eric Longenhagen of FanGraphs on July 7th pegged Steele as a 40 and Thompson as a 35+.
Not sure how often MLB.com updates, but they have Steele on their list as a 40.
Before the season, Baseball America said 40 for Steele, 45 for Thompson.
Pitchers definitely change, even over the course of a few months, and I’m sure we can all think of examples of guys who were not highly rated prospects who became quality big leaguers or more.
Still, I’d imagine that if you asked a bunch of scouts about Steele and Thompson right now, they’d collectively shrug.
This was great a team finally had balls to get rid of the veterans who did not perform up to standards and were not winning with them.They may suffer in the short term 2-3yrs but they
will bounce back and be very good.
Like to see them re-sign one or even all of Rizzo, Baez and Bryant so that people will stop saying it’s impossible.
I’d like them to do it so it plays out and we can all see how terrible of a decision it was. Not that most fans will learn a thing from it, but still.
Contreras doesn’t mind the rebuild then you work with him. Solid catcher that can handle all the different looks the Cubs pitching staff will have next year.
Yeah definitely a Cubs homer here. Pretty much said they will retool and win the 2023 World Series. wink wink
Two things…
One, I really like what the Cubs did in their trades, going for quality instead of quantity. “How many players do we have to trade to you to get that guy? OK, deal.” Similar to what they did, trading two starters in one deal instead of smaller deals for smaller returns, to get Addison Russel.
Two, it’s amazing that Cubs insist on acting like a small market team in the 3rd biggest city in the US. They should be competing every year.
Contrary to popular belief you can’t buy a winning team from year to year. It takes skilled player development and decisions. Teams like the Yankees have been good at it but if a few things go wrong you can’t just buy your way out of mediocrity in free agency. All teams, even big markets, will have lean times if certain things go the wrong way. In fact, attempting to buy a competitive team instead of showing patience is often the cause of teams failing to compete for years, rather than a solution.
Kinda proving my point, though…
“but if a few things go wrong you can’t just buy your way out of mediocrity in free agency. All teams, even big markets, will have lean times if certain things go the wrong way.”
The big market teams have to have “certain things go the wrong way” for them to not compete. The small market teams need a whole lot of things to go right in order to compete.
The ability to fill injuries, the ability to sign a player to strengthen a weak link, the ability to hire more scouts, better scouts, better coaches, etc. There is a reason the same big market teams make playoff appearances more often than not, joined by a small and constantly rotating cast of small market teams making guest appearances in contention.
The Cubs did have a history of getting it wrong and have not made much effort to get it right in the recent past but it’s there for the taking if they wanted it.
Absolutely. A big market budget can’t buy you victory, but it can cover up a lot of mistakes. Small markets have to hit everything right. Agreed.
Except for right now, when haven’t they competed in the last 6 years?
While Wisdom cuts his teeth at first for the Cubs, R to the Izzo is getting the damn hands up in New York.
If this article was issued at the time it was for the reason I suspect, then it’s one of the most stately trolls I have ever witnessed. Tim, I doff my chapeau to ye
Time to tank. I don’t see any way they can get to .500 without a massive buying spree, and by the time the kids are ready to contribute, the FAs you buy in the off-season, will be one step closer to irrelevancy.
In addition, the Cubs probably need to give Hoerner a shot at SS. Madrigal is locked into 2nd for 5 years. If they re-sign Baez, then they are giving up on Hoerner, which makes no sense.
Instead of spending on older FAs, spend it on the BP. It will still lead to some success, probably be cost-effective, not bog them down in the future, ans with any luck, provide a few more trading chips at the deadline.
I think Baez is as good as gone but Nico can play a super utility role pretty easily on this cubs team.
Hoerner will assume center field. He is already far superior to Happ out there.
No reason to tank. You can bring in some veteran free agents on 1-3 year deals to mix in with younger players coming up. Plenty of money to spend. The only longer term contracts I would do, is if Bryant came back, or maybe a Castellanos if he opts out. Re-sign Contreras. Think free agents like Avi Garcia, Andrew McCutchen, Chris Taylor, CJ Cron, a couple of free agent pitchers, mix them in with 2 young outfielders coming up soon Brennan Davis, Deichmann, along with Hoerner, Madrigal, Wisdom. You’re competitive next year, but you don’t get into a lot of risky contracts. Then in 2-3 years, when more of the young talent is coming up, they can put their foot on the gas pedal and compete for a championship.
The Ricketts aren’t going to spend period. Fans will continue to go like cows to slaughter and Ricketts pockets will continue to get fat. They had a 2-4 World Series club and got cheap after 1.
200+million payroll 2019 & 2020. Dumb comment.
Cubs fan here. As painful as it was to see the complete tear down last week after what all of those guys did these past 5-6 years, it was the right thing to do.
We’re now in an era of baseball where ALL teams are being more calculated on when they decide to go past the luxury tax. The Yankees blew by it last year and this year they decided to reset so that they can hard in FA this upcoming offseason if they choose to do so. The Dodgers reset last season and completely blew by it this year when they are obviously in a position to continue to be top of the class in the NL. Guessing next year or in 2023, they will reset again.
Circling back to my Cubs, they were luxury tax offenders in 2019 and 2020, so entering this season there was very little chance that they were going to blow by the luxury tax a third time in a row considering how far they really were from being in a similar tier as the Dodgers. Even if they would have kept Darvish and signed the best pitching FA last season in Bauer (obviously it would have backfired with his ongoing DV case), I still don’t think they would have been in the same class as the Dodgers, so it made sense for them to start the inevitable by getting what they could for Darvish.
When it comes to Rizzo, Bryant, and Baez, I really do think Jed and the front office really did their due diligence in trying to retain them. With Rizzo, they reportedly offered him a $70M/5 year deal last offseason. Perhaps at the time that offer was low, but I thought it seemed fair for someone who seemed to be serious about remaining a Cub for life. Now Spotrac is projecting his market value as $64M/5 years. With Baez, his camp seems to be seeking a $200M+ deal and I think someone ultimately gives him that contract, but I don’t want it to be the Cubs. As exciting as he is to watch, I don’t believe his offensive numbers are deserving of that large of a contract since he strikes out 30%+ and walks less than 5%. With Bryant, I don’t think there were ever serious talks about an extension. This could be to the immediate slight of the organization manipulating his service time, or it very well could have been because of Bryant being a Boras clients and Boras clients rarely sign extensions prior to FA.
If the Cubs were to overpay for all three of those guys and still have Heyward’s contract on the books, then basically Bryant/Rizzo/Baez/Hendricks/Heyward would be making up roughly $105M, or half the amount towards the luxury tax threshold. How does anyone expect them to fill out the rest of the roster and confidently be NL pennant contenders immediately again without blowing by the luxury tax every year forward? I believe if they had more solidified pitching prospects ready to make a larger impact right now, they would have been more willing to budge on extension negotiations, but just don’t have the arms there to afford overpaying position players in hopes of it all coming together in the immediate future. Therefore, Jed and his front office did the most difficult thing possible from an emotional standpoint, but the most correct thing possible from a business standpoint.
It seems to be a consensus industry wide that they got a pretty nice haul overall in the moves they made last week and I think it can be said with confidence that they have a much better start this time around in a rebuild with Davis, Madrigal, Alcantara, Crow-Armstrong, and Preciado, opposed to in 2012 when Jed/Theo took over a farm that really only had one good holdover piece from the previous front office in Baez. Despite what some think, I think this tear down reinforces the competency of Hoyer and his front office, not incompetency. The last thing they wanted was to be in a similar boat as the 2017 Royals where instead of getting back any quality pieces from the remaining parts of their World Series runs, they watched all of them (minus Moustakas) walk out the door during the following FA period and get absolutely nothing in return.
Kdk7 – Excellent review
Heyward is still under contract for the next two seasons. Cubs’ fans may see the Ricketts start to spend once the Cubs are out of that awful deal. Until then a complete rebuild is underway for the next two years with drafting to signing international talent, especially pitchers, then developing these players before bringing them up to the MLB level.
No reason to wait on Heyward’s contract. They will have 120-130 million to spend next year.
I’d like to see them bring Duffy back, but before the ink dries on that contract he’ll probably hit the IL for the first half of ‘22 with some freak injury.
1. Extend Contreras.
2. If Castellanos opts out in Cincinnati, bring him back while everyone else is holding out for shortstops. He enjoyed playing at Wrigley, and now they can afford him. Can he play 1B?
3. Another corner OF. Selfishly I’d like to see a high character guy like McCutchen on a short deal (one plus a vesting second) who can best be used getting 400 PA between LF and DH.
4. As another poster stated, use the SF model for getting veteran starters, since Steele, Thompson, and hopefully Marquez will all still be innings limited next year and probably should just rotate between the 4-5 spots and a creative IL description.
If the Cubs can really just sign whoever they want they should bring back Bryant and sign Carlos Correa this winter
I like the McCutchen idea. Good mentor to young outfielders coming up soon Davis, Deichmann.
I really like this kid Deichmann. Nice compact swing from the left side. Doesn’t swing at bad pitches, makes contact. Gap hitter with occasional power. Should be in the majors soon. Deichmann, Madrigral, Hoerner. I see a future trend here.
I think the Cubs could still try to spend their way into reloading right back into contention. They may still need to get lucky to win 90+ games, but I think building around a core of Contraras,Wisdom, Magdrigal, and Hendricks with the money they’ll have available is doable to at least get into contention with a probable winning record.
When has the plan of spending into contention ever worked?
looks like the Cubs will be ‘lovable losers’ again. I liked them better in that role, anyway.
I’m actually having more fun watching this team of castoffs from other teams doing their best to prove they’re major league players than I was watching Baez strike out on ridiculous pitches.. Or stand at home plate watching a possible home run turn into a single because he wasn’t hustling. Especially Ortega and Wisdom, both deemed not good enough by the Cardinals. Yes, perhaps they’re just having a good, short run, but I see hope there. Also Alcantra, who has the defense, but needs to realize he’s a spray hitter and not a power guy. Hitting a home run in his first MLB at bat might have been the worst thing he could’ve done. I hope the Big 3 have great careers, just don’t think any of them will be back. Rizzo maybe?