The Blue Jays will certainly be issuing qualifying offers to Marcus Semien and Robbie Ray in the coming weeks, but there is potential for a third name on the list: Steven Matz. “Internally, the Blue Jays have debated whether to extend Matz a qualifying offer,” reports Ben Nicholson-Smith of Sportsnet.
The idea of extending an $18.4MM qualifying offer to Matz might come as a surprise to many baseball fans who weren’t paying close attention to the Blue Jays this year, and especially to Mets fans who watched him the year before. But the two campaigns could scarcely have been more different for the southpaw. In the shortened 2020 season, Matz missed a few weeks due to injury and ultimately threw 30 2/3 innings for the Mets with an awful ERA of 9.68. But after an offseason trade to the Blue Jays, Matz logged 150 2/3 innings for Toronto with an ERA of 3.82, accruing 2.8 fWAR in 2021, a personal best for him.
It now appears that 2020 is the outlier for Matz, as his 2021 numbers look very similar to those he talled in 2016, 2018 and 2019. In 2017, injuries limited him to 66 2/3 mediocre innings, but in four of the last six years, Matz has thrown between 132 and 161 frames with an ERA between 3.40 and 4.21, strikeout rate between 22% and 24% and walk rate between 5.7% and 9%. When healthy, he’s been a remarkably consistent mid-rotation arm. Considering his age (31 in May) and strong platform year, it’s possible this could be his best chance to land a big payday in free agency.
However, it seems like the chances Matz would accept a qualifying offer are high, considering that this would more than triple his annual pay. The lefty played 2021 on a salary of $5.25MM in his third and final arbitration season. A raise of that magnitude might be difficult to turn down, especially considering that he’d be attaching himself to draft pick forfeiture, thus putting a dent in his earning power. If he accepted, he would also return to the free agent market one year later, after the cloud of mystery around the next Collective Bargaining Agreement will have lifted. The current CBA expires December 1st, which creates a great deal of uncertainty as to how the offseason will play out. It would be entirely reasonable for a player to prefer to have their signature on a contract going into that vast unknown, as opposed to being untethered. The Blue Jays would likely have to give heavy consideration to how it would affect their offseason if the offer was both extended and accepted.
It was recently reported that the club expects payroll to go up next season, though it’s unclear exactly what kind of increase is possible. Jason Martinez of Roster Resource currently estimates next year’s payroll at just under $115MM, which is about $20MM shy of 2021’s opening day number, per Cot’s Baseball Contracts. Adding $18.4MM for Matz would immediately make up the majority of that difference, meaning that the front office would be left with whatever payroll increase they have been granted by ownership, while still looking to re-sign or replace Ray and Semien, as well as upgrading a bullpen that was the team’s achilles heel at times in 2021. That would seem to suggest that the chances of the team deciding to eventually extend the offer to Matz are low, but the fact that they are even debating it perhaps suggests that the payroll increase could be significant.
The club’s 2022 rotation looks a bit frontloaded, now that Matz and Ray are set to depart. Jose Berrios, Hyun-Jin Ryu and Alek Manoah make for a strong front three, with Ross Stripling, Nate Pearson, Thomas Hatch and Anthony Kay on hand as potential options for the backend. There’s certainly room for the Blue Jays to add to that group before spring training rolls around, and they won’t be lacking for options. This year’s class of free agent starters includes such varied names as Max Scherzer, Kevin Gausman, Carlos Rodon, Justin Verlander, Clayton Kershaw, Eduardo Rodriguez and many more.
Perhaps they shouldn’t QO a player that would 100% accept it without hesitation. How about trying to sign him for 3 years at a reasonable AAV?
Anyone else can too then and starters are hard to find.
I mean… People were saying the exact same thing about Kevin Gausman less than a year ago. It seemed to work out well for the Giants. At that time Gausman had already been flat out released by the Braves and Reds. Sometimes pitchers find their groove with a new organization. I’m not big on risky big long term contracts but I do think teams should offer the QO more. If it backfires it only hurts one year. The Astros and Rays both screwed up by not offering a QO to Charlie Morton. The A’s screwed up by not offering one to Semien. I wasn’t expecting Matz to get one but if they do offer it I think he should accept and it could work out for both sides like Gausman did. Everyone knew Gausman would accept and the Giants were glad he did.
Braves traded Gausman, didn’t release him.
The Braves didn’t trade Gausman. They let the Reds claim him off waivers.
Can’t they reach a deal before he’s eligible to take other offers? Not sure how it works.
Matz is 30 and he can still easily get at least a 3-year deal with a draft pick attached. The Jays can gamble with him accepting the Q.O. and hope he has a great ’22 first-half and trade him for prospects at the deadline.
Why would a team like the Jays trade a player who has a great first half? Boy you Yankee fans are sure out of touch with reality.
Nothing stopping them from negotiating such a deal after he accepts it. If he can make 30 starts behind ryu and berrios then the QO risk would be worth it even if no long term deal is done. If letting ray walk and focusing on berrios is the plan then qo’ing Matz is the right move.
It’s better to have a bad one year deal then a bad 3 year deal.
Says Captain Obvious.
It’s an overpay and he’d definitely accept it, but it honestly might not be the worst thing. Ray is probably gone and Pearson can’t be relied upon to slot into the rotation right now, so they might as well spend the money before the payroll gets too high. I’d probably save that though and aim higher in free agency if it were my choice.
Not the worst thing to pay Matz 19m next year *if* he does as good as he did in 2021. Lots of rumors going around about guys who didn’t do as good as him getting the QO, like Eduardo Rodriquez being one.
ERods FIP is amazin
Unfortunately for him, it’s unlikely that fielders will be eliminated in the next CBA.
52 man active rosters with designated fielders and hitters
We may see robot fielders before we see robot umpires the way things are going. Every team gets the same infield fielding robots that are placed in the same spot as the solution to The Great Shift debate that almost brought down baseball in 2028. Outfield robots would not arise until 2042.
Of course in 2037 we would see the advent of robot pitchers if not cyborg pitchers who possess mechanical arms. Impassioned speeches of a surgeon surrounded by guys forced into retirement sway the commissioner to allow the cybernetic solution to enter the game. The first high tech addition to the game since all players were allowed to wear ‘smart glasses’ in 2031.
Yet umpiring would not see any fundamental change at any point this century.
Matz? Turned down the Mets POBO position
That would be an unwise overpay to pay Matz 19m+. Stupid actually.
Matz is a weak three in the rotation. He can blow a team away or he can be out of the game in the 2nd or 3rd inning. The last time he pitched as well as he did this year was 5 years ago so that doesn’t bode well for next year. He is not consistent year to year.
You never know what you are going to get with him. Definitely not a $19m player. One year at $9M? sure.
If you have the money it’s better to overpay for a weak #3 than to have a hole in your rotation.
Matz might not even be a #3 at all though
He’s a number 47 according to the scout eyes in this thread.
Doesnt make any sense. They can offer him 2 years, 20 million and he would accept
Why would he accept that? That feels like a significantly below market value offer
Really? He’s been wildly inconsistent in his career. You sure he has that much value?
So we not understand how free agency works ?
It’s a tough decision indeed. Jays would have their rotation intact if he’d accept the qualifying offer. To me, this isn’t about draft pick compensation, as it is retaining Matz for one more year, and keeping him away for other suitors.
While also not having to give out a multi-year deal for another free agent pitcher. And other potential SP options on 1 year deals may not be as effective as what Matz can give you.
It’s about budget managing, payroll flexibility for this offseason, and comparing Matz to other potential 1 year free agent pitchers. It’s a tough decision indeed.. because if you let him walk, he’s due for a multi year contract, maybe not for 18 million a year, but a 3 year 45 million dollar dear, (15 per year) is definitely not out the question for Matz. And the Jays may not want to do that, considering they’ll have other guys to sign in years to come.
And if the payroll flexibility is as good for the Jays, as some make it out to be, then bringing him back to solidify your rotation for next year on a 1 year 18 million dollar deal makes plenty of sense, while leaving obvious room to address other areas.
Once again, you solidify your rotation with Berrios, Manoah, Matz, Ryu and have a bunch of depth like Stripling, Hatch, Kay, Pearson to compete for the five. Worst case scenario, he declines and the Jays do get draft pick compensation.
Without knowing what the market is going to be as it could change significantly with the cba I think I would gamble on the QO. He might still turn it down which is the best case scenario as it means the jays would have picks galore in the upcoming draft and more importantly a lot more pool money then a team with the 20 something draft choice. They would probably be able to get 2-3 first round talents allowing them to trade surplus from the farm knowing it will be restocked right away.
If Matz is worth 3 years at $15M per… then he’s definitely worth one year at $18.4M.
Is he worth either of those amounts though? At 2.8fWar yes… but is that what you’ll get?
It’s a tough call… but I’d probably QO him. But would definitely explore the option of a 3 year deal first.
Career year last year but the Jays have to know if they issue Matz the QO he is almost certain to accept it. Still, the Jays could do worse than Ryu/Berrios/Matz/Manoah/Pearson in the rotation
They’re officially in win now mode, no way they can go in to next year with that rotation
If you are hoping for Scherzer you are going to have to be extra specially good this year for Santa to pull of that miracle
Nah max isn’t coming here, they will probably need to do it through trade.
What starter are available this winter?
Max Scherzer, Justin Verlander, Zack Grienke, Eduardo Rodriguez, Clayton Kershaw,Robbie Ray, Noah Syndergaard, Johnny Cueto, Kevin Gausman, Anthony DeSclafani, Alex Woods, John Gray, Michael Pineda, Alex Cobb, Dylan Bundy, Rich Hill, Jose Quintana, Matt Harvey, Garret Richards, Martin Perez, Corey Kluber, J.A. Happ, Andrew Heaney, Jon Lester, Michael Wacha, Chris Archer, Jeff Samardzija, Rick Porcello, Trevor Cahill, Mike Fiers, and probably others i failed to mention
Iverbure, if you mean available through trade, I could see at least one of the arbitration eligible starters on Oakland being moved: Manaea ($10m), Bassit ($9m), Montas ($5m). Miami seems like they want controllable bats and have pitching to trade from. Or you find a guy like Matz last year that at his floor is a back end of the rotation option that you think you might be able to get more out of.
My guess is Matz gets 3 years 45-50 mil from someone, he’s a serviceable back end of the rotation arm with some upside.
No team is going to give up a pick for him so, really the jays just need to ask, can they get another Matz on a cheap one year deal and can they improve their team with the remaining 6-8 mil. If the answer is no to either of those they need to offer him a QO and just live with the overpay for a year and stabilize the back end of the rotation. If Matz is you’re fifth starter you’re doing okay (Here’s hoping it’s not Ryu)
Matz did what he was supposed to do – pitch his best just before free agency. His history of injuries and inconsistency are red flags for anyone, and offering him a QO would certainly be an overpay, unless they think they can get another decent year out of him so he can pitch with no strings attached. He’s a fourth starter at best and probably best suited for fifth in most rotations.
Matz would accept. Toronto would be able to probably get him extended for 2 yrs/$20M.
Not sure about the math of that. If offered QO for $18.4, he’s not going to accept a second season at $1.6,
If it was tacked on so 3/38.6 he might. He might get around that as an FA, but not if they offer the QO.
But if he’s NOT offered the QO….
Interesting that a starter who has never thrown more than 160 innings and who’s peak WAR is under three would score that kind of an offer. It’s not the worst move by Toronto, but it is a fairly high allocation of resources if he accepts…and there’s every reason for him to do it.
I think one of the primary motivating factors for the FO is the possibility of having Stripling in the rotation. We’ll overpay Matz just to prevent using Ross as anything other than a spot starter/long man.
It’s a bit like the ERod situation. I think it is automatic that we QO ERod, but $18.4M is a bit high. It would be better to work something out after we QO him, but before he hits the market.
A QO makes sense if Pearson or any replacement in the rotation isn’t close. It is only a 1 year impact, good or bad. If Pearson is ready you have nothing to lose. Matz isn’t worth a long term deal, especially for anything north of 15+ million a year. He hasn’t settled into any real consistency.
Pearson isn’t close. Electric stuff, wildly inconsistent
Internal replacements aren’t great, and even if they are close to a breakthrough, you’d rather they seize the job like Manoah did than rely on them and find none are quite ready to be more than optionable depth starters. I’m pretty sure it would be a bad idea to pencil Pearson in for 150 innings next year. I could see Pearson used the way Chicago used Kopech last year. You’re not a prospect anymore. Get outs at the major league level and build up for more of a role and workload the following year.
3 yrs 42m, with the 3rd yr vesting at 300 innings within the first two yrs combined.
The Jays bullpen was much better after acquiring Cimber and Richards, while Romano has solidified the closer role. I don’t think it’s in as bad a shape as it was last offseason.
Still need 2 more high leverage arms in the pen
again, strong pitching market. i dont see how this wouldn’t encumber him on the market.
I could see either way. On the one hand, the Jays have often done some early off season business (Ray last year, Chase Anderson the year before). This would just give them an easy path to filling one of the spots so they can focus on other pursuits. I don’t love paying free agents to fill back end of the rotation spots because you may as well let some of your depth options fill those roles on the cheap and spend your money at the front end, but I don’t have a ton of confidence in the optionable depth arms this year and would like to see them push Stripling to a swingman role on paper.
On the other hand, I think they have confidence in the processes that found them Ray, Semien, and Matz and are more likely to repeat the process than double down on those actual players. Keeping in mind that those processes left them empty handed with Yates and Phelps and disappointed in Chatwood, maybe a little certainty to start what will be an uncertain off season might be more palatable than trying to find value. I think it depends somewhat on how eager they are to get some extensions inked before next season starts too.
Braves traded Gausman, didn’t release him. Much less “flat out” released him.
So the Blue Jays are interested in Matz? I see we’ve started early this year.
Starting pitching can be hard to find, and while Matz had a nice season, his overall numbers suggest he had some luck. I wouldn’t give him $18 M, but that just my opinion.
Matz is a 2-3 yr at 10m type of player. I don’t know who is going to give up a draft pick to sign him though.
You also have to factor in how much 18m is in Canada. Subject to all the various tax laws and matz being an American citizen he would take home about 45% of any money made in Canada.
$18M in Canada is about $25M CAD, and their tax rate is no different than living in any state with a higher tax rate. Google McCutchen’s pay stub to see how much is taken out from MLB players checks.
That’s simply not true.
Players don’t pay tax on their full salaries based on their home city. 81 games will be played in the US, you pay according to the state you play in.
The remaining 81 homes will be subject to Canadian tax only, which means it’s a blend that will be surely lower than 45%, thanks to 19 games in tampa
I can’t see Matz turning down a guaranteed fortune to stay with a great team, avoid the draft pick compensation tag that would scare away some teams, and have security in a year where there are likely to be contentious CBA negotiations. And Toronto gets a #4 starter at a bit of an overpay but not much risk given it’s just one year. And if Matz turns it down the Jays are in a great draft position next year.
As a long time Mets fan I hated to see Matz go and posted on MLBTR at the time that he would do well; he was screwed up by dick pic Callaway and if the Jays turn him down I would like to see the Mets get him back; what a difference he could have made for them if they had kept him instead of the substitute pitching garbage they ran out there! I wish the best for Matz; stay and take the money if the Jays give it to you!
I kinda see him having an Al Leither type career. All the tools and talent. Can’t stay healthy the first years then got healthy and became a legitimate ace. If he’s healthy again next year I could see him building off this year.
I like the idea of a 2 yr 30M with the 2nd yr being option driven. The option would be as such
year 1: 18M
2nd yr Team Option: 12M with 2M buyout
2nd yr Player Option: 8 with pushing to 10 if 160 innings pitched
He still gets the qualifying offer dollar wise and a little extra to sign early and both the team and player has some flexibility for next year with the salary being much lower when some of those other players become costly.. Might be a slight aav overpay but if you offer it at the offset i think he signs quickly and you can look into the rest of the market… reasonably i think he gets 12-13 mil a year i mean walker got what 2/20 as a 4th/5th and i think matz is a bit better plus he is a lefty.
I think him still being offered the QO to help him in a few years is a great incentive, good call
If Matz was a guy who could throw 200 innings, he’d be worth the QO for his slightly above average numbers. But as a guy whose ceiling seems to be around 150 innings when healthy, I’ll pass. If he won’t sign for less, replace him with someone who won’t overwork the weak bullpen.
My gut says no. He and Ryu would make and expensive 3-4 of the rotation. Put the money to the BP. Or use it towards a Berrios contact.
Also use load management with Ryu. He was sacked at the end of the season.