The Blue Jays fell just short of achieving their goal of making the playoffs this season, but a 91-71 season has Toronto trending upward. That’s cold comfort for a fan base well-removed from its glory days, however. Following back-to-back World Series victories in 1992-93, Canada’s premier baseball club has made the playoffs just three times in the last 28 seasons – once during the shortened 2020 campaign that expanded the playoff field.
Still, the Jays appear on the cusp of sustained success that Canadians haven’t seen from their ball club since Joe Carter’s historic blast ended the 1993 season. Ownership seems to think so, too, as team president Mark Shapiro said today that, despite the COVID-related revenue losses, the payroll will continue to rise, per Ben Nicholson-Smith of sportsnet.ca (via Twitter). With deadline acquisition Jose Berrios just a year from free agency, and young stars like Vladimir Guerrero Jr. and Bo Bichette without long-term deals, the Jays will need to pony up significant dough to keep this core together and competitive long-term.
Cot’s Contracts put Toronto’s 2021 payroll bill to be around $154MM, tweets Nicholson-Smith, and it doesn’t sound as if the Jays are quite ready to consider exceeding the luxury tax. But there’s a fair amount of territory between the $210MM tax line (pending the new CBA) and the $154MM they spent in 2021. As of right now, they have an estimated $114MM projected for their 2022 roster, though that number included estimates for arbitration players and only includes contracts for those players under team control.
It’s no secret that Charlie Montoyo’s club has a couple of significant players heading towards free agency, namely second baseman Marcus Semien and starters Robbie Ray and Steven Matz. For what it’s worth, Shapiro didn’t shy away from saying they plan to try to bring those three back, per Nicholson-Smith (via Twitter). But he also made a point of saying that improving the club is the priority, not bringing back the same 91-team from 2021.
So is bringing all three back a reasonable expectation? Shapiro should have clarity from ownership on their spending limits in a month or so, per MLB.com’s Keegan Matheson (via Twitter). Shapiro certainly seemed to prepare the fan base to say goodbye to at least one of those three, if not more.
Semien is probably the most popular, as well as the safest bet considering his track record, but he also plays a position where the Jays have some depth – both in the near-and-long-term. Cavan Biggio could slide over to the keystone from the hot corner, as could 26-year-old Santiago Espinal after posting a surprising 115 wRC+ in 246 plate appearances. That could make Semien expendable.
Not to mention, Semien is likely looking for a long-term deal after making good on his season-long showcase, and the Jays have fast-rising 19-year-old infielder Orelvis Martinez making his way to the Majors. Martinez certainly isn’t ready to replicate Semien’s 6.6 fWAR season, but he might offer enough promise to push the Jays to devote their resources elsewhere.
Ray and Matz are coming off monster years considering where they’d been as recently as 2020, but the Jays need more starting pitching. Even with Berrios in the fold and Alek Manoah having established himself in the rotation, they still need an arm or two to fill out the rotation. Maybe they feel comfortable enough with the strides made by either Ray or Matz to invest in them long-term, but they might want to see the price tag first, too.
Toronto isn’t limiting their spending just to the payroll, however, as they’ve also allocated some organizational resources to upgrading the fan experience at the ballpark. There will be a new scoreboard at the Rogers Centre next season, per Laura Armstrong of the Toronto Star. That doesn’t mean a future move is outside the realm of possibility, though it certainly would seem that the Jays will have at least a near-term future in their usual confines. While that leaves a fair amount of wiggle room for the future, even a full season back in the Rogers Centre would be more stability than they’ve had in years.
Think they’ll resign Semien?
I figure he will want enough that it’d be as if he signed a $100M to $160M contract last off season.
So that’d be like 5 years/$120-130M on top of the 1 year/$18M deal.
I dont think they will, he wants a long term deal and the Jay’s have to be careful how many of those we give out, if we resign ray, and semien back on multi year deals (which they deserve) we then have to consider how do we resign Guerrero and bichette in 2 years
Wow, how generous of Rogers to increase the Jays’ middle of the pack payroll when the team is young, won 91 games last year, and they’re getting fans back for 2022. So generous! Now watch them lose Semien and Ray while re-signing Matz and bringing in Jose Iglesias to replace Semien and increasing payroll by like a whole million dollars
How do you know this?
Look at what they did post-‘16 when they replaced Edwin with Kendrys Morales and declining Bautista with completely washed up Bautista just because he would sign a one year deal. Now, the front office had all the motivation to tank then and that’s not the case now, but they’ve shown to be incompetent and cheap in the past so I don’t know why that’s not a possible outcome going forward
Wut? Another guy who has no idea what he’s talking about.
In 2015 jays were the oldest team
Now they are one of the youngest, it’s completely different
Who cares about average age? In ‘15 they had the best run differential in baseball. In ‘16 they were 5th. They reached the ALCS in both of those seasons. Blowing up an elite team just because they’re old or whatever is Marlins-level nonsense. Squeeze all you can out of them, then sell when it’s clear that the ship has sailed. By your logic, the Nationals should’ve blown it all up rather than try to win in ‘19 since they were old and had just lost Harper
Dude you high or lost? If you know the Marlins you wouldn’t be saying the Jays are cheap!
Wow that hurt my head reading.
If you can’t see the difference between an aging over the hill team that is now past its prime vs a young team on the upswing, I really can’t help you. No one can help you
Ok, from what your saying is that they should of paid top dollar for Edwin (5years), Price (what Boston paid), but also extend Bautista because in 2016, he wasn’t declining at all.
All of them have declined, and they would been stuck with a high payroll producing mediocre results.
Or they could’ve won the World Series in ‘16 had they brought Price back. Yes, sometimes you have to gamble and sacrifice the future payroll flexibility order to win. This was the criticism of Dombrowski in Boston, which is crazy BECAUSE HE WON. And the Jays were in a comparable position until Shatkins flushed all of AA’s progress down the toilet. There’s no guarantee that they’ll win anything in the Vlad Era and the AL East is far stronger now than it was then.
Because David Price had such sterling postseason results that you just know he’d have made all the difference in the ALCS and World Series.
Steelers . You sound like an embittered Pittsburgh fan. A case of fan envy?
No, the Steelers make me happy because they never rebuild, unlike loser teams such as the Jays who invent reasons to do so. This particular rebuild was kickstarted because there was front office turnover, not because the big league team stunk
You make 0 sense. Look at the teams that made the playoffs in 15-16 ( Royals/Rangers/Orioles ) How do the Jays compare today to those 3?
But you do you, a hater gotta hate.
Why are those teams relevant to this discussion? Also the Royals won a World Series, got to game 7 in another and maximized their window to contend as best they could, which is more than what can be said about the Jays. Frankly that should excuse the fact that the Royals are bad now
Steelers rebuild starts as soon as big Ben retires
No. Never rebuild. I’d rather have Ben play until he’s 45. All of these super amazing can’t miss QB prospects from this year’s draft class are garbage so far, I’ll pass
They are relevant because of the fact that compared to teams they faced in the 15-16 playoffs the Jays rebuilt and are once again competitive something those other 3 teams aren’t as yet.
You don’t watch the Jays do you? The Jays best chance was in 15 – other then a couple really bad pitch calls in the 9th the Jays likely would have won game 6 and Game 7 who knows. Either team out of the AL would have beaten the Mets that year
16- Pitching was not the issue against Cleveland it was lack of timely hitting. The Jays bats went cold. Price would not have helped.
Seriously no clue what you are saying with respect to the Jays.
I wish I could be as blissfully ignorant as Steelers. Try and make myself sound smart by saying things like who cares about payroll, spend to win. Keep Price and Edwin after 17’ even though that woulda been an absolute disaster. Going for it in those years definitely affects years afterwards. Smart teams in today’s baseball rebuild dumb teams listen to buffoon fans that don’t know anything and try and go for it every year and never win.
The Dodgers don’t rebuild, the Yankees don’t rebuild, the Cardinals don’t rebuild, the Red Sox don’t really rebuild. These are elite, winning organizations. Rebuilding is far from mandatory. And there are teams like the White Sox who rebuilt a rebuild and still can’t win a playoff series. And that’s not even the worst outcome for rebuilding franchises, teams like the Pirates and Orioles are kind of just terrible with no end in sight to their rough patches.
So why would you rebuild a great team like that? You said yourself that they were World Series contenders. Again, the rebuild scammed the fans in ways that we’ve seen with the Marlins and other loser franchises. If you want to rebuild a bad, old team with a bloated payroll and a weak farm, sure, be my guest. But they weren’t bad until Shatkins made them bad, and that’s a real shame.
I’m getting really sick of reading that Biggio is a replacement for Semien. Yeah, and a Yaris is a replacement for a Lambo.
Biggio doesn’t have a starting job on the team any more so I don’t think anyone is actually saying that.
At this point you probably slide espinal there and look for a 3 baseman.
Get over the fact biggio doesn’t have what you think a good average is. There isn’t a single gm that cares about players batting averages.
His obp was .322 this year, with a sub .400 slg and no defensive value, he is going to have to figure out a way to increase his value at the plate some way in order to become an every day player.
Love to see the Jays try and swing a trade with the Diamondbacks for Marte. Groshans+Biggio + a guy like Machado.
From an offensive standpoint the hope is that a healthy Springer replaces Semiens production.
The Jays probably need to make a big trade for an arm and a reliever and not live or die in the free agent market.
Ray and semien were amazing this year, but they both are going to get paiddddd, probably overpaid in both AAV and years. I don’t think it’s the end of the world if they both walk. Realistically with a half way decent bullpen to start the year the jays probably finish neck and neck with the rays.
It’s time to turn some assets in to controllable talent around Vlad, Bo and Manoah. Use Kirk, Biggio, and Teo and see what you can get in terms of a young arm and maybe a 3b. Finding someone to take Grichuk would be nice too. Plus with semien and Ray walking you have some pick capital and might feel more comfortable dealing players
A full season in Toronto will help too.
Dustys 2022 target list
Matt Chapman
Sandy Alcantara
Craig Kimbrel
Jon Gray
This team was so frightening this year. They needed serious bullpen help. Yes, Yates got hurt, but they needed more bullpen help in March (almost every team needs more bullpen help almost all the time).
That’s easily the team’s biggest weakness, and yet, the mid 2010s Rockies showed us that dumping most of your payroll room into that weakness doesn’t necessarily make it any better.
The Yankees made that mistake a few years back. My recollection is that they spent maybe $55M on their BP.. It was a good BP, but not great, and other teams put together similar BPs for half the cost. You need a good 1/2, and a reliable 3/4, and then your return on your investment drops off quickly.
Make your rotation solid enough that you don’t need the bullpen much, and so you can having some starting pitching prospects fill out the pen. That’s the best way.
The Jays are most likely going to lose both Semien ( Giants?)and Ray ( Angels?), so the number one priority should be to break the bank for Corey Seager. He is a middle of the order hitting middle infielder who also has an everyday left handed bat. Seager is only 27 years old and his bat could easily cover a six or seven year deal. This could replace the production from Semien and balance out the line up.
I agree… I think they’re both gone. I don’t think Ray’s success will be sustainable for the yeas to come though, so it’s okay that he leaves for money, can’t blame him. But I do think Matz should be signed for a few years, he has had similar career success and will come cheaper. Seager is a pipe dream, but the thought of playing with the lineup in TOR may be too difficult to pass up for him. ‘fingers crossed’
The priority should be the starting rotation (not necessarily Ray, but somebody). They don’t need help winning 10-5 games by more runs, they need help winning 2-1 games.
Semien is gone. And he should be. He’s an amazing player but they have some people coming up who can replace him so that they can allocate resources for young pitching.
This team is going to get expensive in a hurray so managing that will be tricky. I’d sign starling Marte so they can trade Gurriel or Theo for young pitching (Miami? Cleveland?) so they can save the prospects for when Bo and Vladdy get expensive.
Sign Starling and trade for Ketel .
I don’t think the Jays should break the bank, the future looks expensive. To me, they need to get creative, and make some trades.. Bring in guys under control, with more affordable contracts. Be smart, yet stay competitive. Period. There’s different ways, then to just spend on free agency. They have a farm, and guys like Biggio to deal, make something happen, and save some money for the future.
Reading the comments and wow
A lot of talk about a Ramirez trade and the fact that he is exactly what the jays need is the reason I don’t think it will happen, widely reported interest rarely happens
I would trade for the d-backs Marte, sign Kyle Seager to a 2 year term and let Martinez and Groshans grow into 2nd and 3rd
Spend the money on a Berrios extension first and Qa Matz, 6y and 125m at Ray tomorrow (4×25, 5th 15 player option, 6th 10 player option), and then put every penny in salary and pro scouting into the bullpen.
Love Semian, love him, but even my 11 year old knows the jays need to get more left handed.
I don’t like Ray at that term but agree with everything you said. Add in a few bullpen pieces and away we go
Jays might’ve won the AL East if they were playing at home. Canadian government failed them,
Yanks would have lost 100 plus games on Toronto’s payroll. By the AS break with Tampa’s.
Can’t wait for the #ShatAnon apologists to compensate for the fact that Alex Anthopolous is heading to the World Series with the Braves behind NLCS MVP Eddie Rosario, who he got from Cleveland at the July TDL for Pablo Sandoval, and a lights out bullpen he built from the ground up!
BTW, in 27 seasons as a GM, Pat Gillick’s teams reached the postseason 11 times, resulting in three World Series rings, before he was enshrined in the HoF. Mark Shapiro’s teams would have to reach the playoffs every single season over the next seven years – and win three WS Championships – just to equal that.