Max Scherzer will hit free agency for the second time in his career this winter. His last trip to the open market resulted in a seven-year, $210MM deal with the Nationals that turned out to be one of the best free agent investments in recent memory. Scherzer posted a sub-3.00 ERA in five of his six full seasons in Washington, and he’s performing right at peak level in his platform campaign.
The three-time Cy Young award winner has worked 179 1/3 innings across 30 starts, working to a 2.46 ERA/2.89 SIERA. Among the 123 pitchers with 100+ innings, Scherzer ranks 3rd in ERA, 2nd in SIERA, 3rd in strikeout percentage (34.1%), 2nd in strikeout/walk rate differential (28.9 percentage points) and 3rd in swinging strike rate (15.9%).
Scherzer got off to a typically strong start to the year with the Nats, and he’s only taken things to another level after being moved to the Dodgers alongside Trea Turner in a deadline blockbuster. Since landing in Southern California, he’s worked 68 1/3 frames of 1.98 ERA ball, punching out 33.6% of opposing hitters while walking a minuscule 3.0%. Dodgers manager Dave Roberts has already declared Scherzer would get the ball in next week’s single-elimination Wild Card game if the Dodgers can’t track down the Giants in the NL West (via Fabian Ardaya of the Athletic).
That continued dominance should position Scherzer to land the highest average annual value of any player on the market this offseason, with a chance he could threaten Gerrit Cole’s record $36MM AAV for free agent contracts. Scherzer’s age will keep him from coming anywhere close to Cole’s nine-year term, but he’s still in line for a strong commitment over multiple seasons. Scherzer, who turned 37 years old in July, is looking to land a deal that’ll take him into his 40’s, reports Jon Heyman of the MLB Network (Twitter link).
It’d register as a surprise if any club were willing to offer Scherzer an unprecedented deal in the realm of Cole’s record AAV over four seasons. But a three-year pact with a very strong annual salary indeed seems to be attainable. Scherzer’s former teammate, Justin Verlander, signed a two-year, $66MM extension with the Astros in March 2019 that took effect at the start of last season, his age-37 campaign. Verlander, who posted similar numbers in 2018 as Scherzer has this season, didn’t land a third year. But the Astros’ ace signed his deal a full season in advance of free agency without the benefit of an open market bidding. Scherzer, on the other hand, will have multiple suitors as the best-performing impending free agent pitcher.
And while Verlander’s extension has turned out poorly for the Astros — he’s thrown just six innings over the course of the deal because of an ill-timed Tommy John surgery — he still looks like a plausible qualifying offer candidate. Were the Houston front office to make him a QO (which is expected to land in the $19-20MM range), that’d bring Verlander’s potential earnings up to around $85-86MM over the three-season stretch from 2020-22. It’s not a perfectly analogous situation, of course, but it serves to highlight teams’ general willingness to pay a premium for an ace of that caliber, even as those players enter their late-30’s.
One potential wild card in the Scherzer free agent auction will be geography. At this summer’s trade deadline, he reportedly leveraged his no-trade rights to land with a West Coast contender, with the bidding ultimately coming down to the Padres and Dodgers. It’s possible he’ll prioritize staying out west in free agency, although there’s not yet been any indication that’s the case.
He’ll certainly have no shortage of interest, whether from teams in California or anywhere else. The game’s lowest spenders can safely be ruled out, since they’ll never sign a player who’ll command Scherzer’s level of annual salary. Virtually every pitching-needy contender with ample payroll capacity figures to at least be in contact with his representatives at the Boras Corporation. Where the future Hall of Famer winds up will be among the most fascinating storylines of the offseason.
The one Boras client who didn’t rob the team he signed with. Expect a ridiculous AAV ask with Scherzer this time around. But Max is a beast and will help any team he goes to.
I wonder why Boras keeps “robbing” teams as if teams are oblivious to the value which signing such players bring to their team. Feel free to swap Boras’ name with any MLB player agent.
No you can not swap Boras name with any other agent. People that make agruements like yours must be truly dead inside. Behind 9 out of 10 players seeking 200m dollar contracts you will find Boras trying to get teams to bid against themselves, creating fake interest where there isn’t any and playing the press for fools. Boras is a leech on the baseball world and only the fans suffer for his ridiculous contract negotiations. I know people like you say if the players don’t get it the owners do. Well, to counter that argument teams don’t raise ticket and concession prices if they haven’t signed a Boras client in the offseason. There is a reason some teams won’t even discuss players with Boras unless he happens to represent the player they are targeting. He is everything wrong with MLB FA and a perfect example of why they need a hard cap. Before saying something else stupid in his defense look up the contracts he has negotiated in the last 5-10 years and point to 10-15% of them that have actual been close to of value for the team.
nobody will take hard cap. but high($240 mil) upper threshold and $80-90 million lower threshold look to be realistic. and with much more severe penalties.
The only issue I posit then is why teams continue to negotiate at all with him. If, as you cite, essentially no contract is worth it from a Boras client, just stop taking them altogether. Sure, inquire, negotiate a little and put on the dog-and-pony show. But, Sign other players first and just state you cannot wait around for his clients all winter, which anyone understands.
Here’s the problem though: once players see that owners effectually shut down Boras and his clients, they will strike. Why? Because he is good for players and the union as a whole financially. Think this way, the more money flooded to the Boras players, the more money everyone will ultimately make at some point in future FA (theoretically). This is why MLBPA will fight against any cap.
As an aside, I cannot stand Boras and I don’t condone his methods as ethical, moral or well-intended; but they are permissible.
@thecoffinnail Casey Close, Joel Wolfe, Dan Lozano, Levinson brothers… Have you looked at their superstar client lists? Teams raise ticket and concession prices because they can. Why sell 35k seats when they can sell 32k or 31k seats a game for the same revenue and spend less in operating cost? It has very little correlation with players on the current roster or payroll size.
Good post & point(s), @Clip.
But. If I were an MLB player, you bet your butt I’d want Boras as my agent. He generally gets his guys paid. Very well, too. & I find it hard to dislike virtually anyone who excels at what they do. (Aside from mass murderers, etc.)
Thank you for that last note ducky
Boras is great for the players and great for the game of baseball. I’m always amazed by so-called fans who side with owners and corporations over the talented players we watch play. It’s like rooting against the working man. No one is forcing teams to sign Boras clients. The teams that do are making a nice profit by doing so, regardless of the length of the contract. Yet we have people who are fans of owners instead of players. It makes no sense. The money is there to be had, so why shouldn’t the players get it? Many fans, I guess, are just jealous of what other people make.
Been posting here over a year now.
So: I have learned to include caveats & disclaimers.
Otherwise…well, you know…
That is cute a Yankee fan complaining Boras gets teams to bid against other teams. How many players has your team over paid for to get a player? The luxury tax is like a tip for you guys. Keep complaining and let’s see how high the Yanks bid.
I hope he knows Seattle is on the WC and we don’t have a state income tax. He needs to come here and help this young team win our 1st WS.
Your comment basically stated that GMs are as dumb as rocks and that Boras can manipulate them at will.
If true that sounds like a problem the owners should try to fix.
Considering a franchise is worth billions of dollars my guess is that the economics of the game suit the owners just fine.
Showed up as a response.
Anyway:
Pretty off topic, but I love seeing the excitement in the Mariners fan base. Kind of refreshing. A number of what I consider to be pretty good Yankee fans seem almost embarrassed to be excited about this Wild Card race.
I am not!
I will actually catch some of the Mariners tonight (college football tonight too). But this is exactly what Manfred wants, man.
Funny, how these owners dont lose money, its a 10 billion dollar industry, where 95% of teams are in public financed stadiums with sweetheart deals with the city.
Fact is we are closer to the richest players financially then the players are to the owners.
I noticed West coast teams was mentioned with the exception of LAA. Accidental omission?
Oakland and the Giants weren’t mentioned as teams either (except for the Giants being the team the Dodgers need to chase down to avoid the Wild Card game)… so I don’t know where you’re getting that LAA was the only West Coast team omitted.
I guess I was aiming at the point that LAA is the only non contender & they need a world of help in pitching.
If I was a premium pitcher with a lot of innings on my arm the LAA would be my last choice to sign with. Either they have no idea about conditioning or they are seriously jinxed. I would go with jinxed since the problems seemed to have started when they let work horse John Lackey walk, then threw all that money at CJ Wilson. That was the beginning. Since then either promising rookies like Heaney turned out to be #5 starters at best, high cost veterans like Wilson have been about average or just hurt all the time. Luckily they smartened up and went after Ohtani because they knew when his arm fell off he could still hit.
wilson was injured while racing and during his dl time he raced again. he boasted buying a mazda dealer with the money he made from the angels. an objectionable character!
Curly: Max stated publicly, and the article reiterated, that he only wanted a contending team. My guess is that he doesn’t want a team he thinks he can help to contend, rather one already in contention that he will help win it all in his twilight years.
@coffinnail haha but you’re not soo your opinion is irrelevant and baseless.
I can’t imagine he’ll sign somewhere without a shot at competing.
Max is the safest bet in baseball. Pay him whatever it takes and you will not regret it
@giant4life @37 i wouldn’t call max a sure bet tbh i would be wary giving him anything to pricey or long term. btw this isn’t a knock on max but for the most part betting and paying a merc that much at that age is a very risky move.
With that many innings on his arm he is far from the safest bet in baseball. The human arm was not meant to go threw that torque. Eventually “sure things” like Scherzer fall apart too. Verlander is a prime example, Cliff Lee, John Smoltz are as well. He doesn’t have the benefits of alt medicine like Clemens to stay healthy. Only pitcher of the last 20-25 years I can remember staying healthy well into his 40s was Greg Maddux. He never threw over 91 though. Which does help with the arm health. Even Randy Johnson had a few half seasons when he started getting close to and into his 40s. For a power pitcher he was the picture of health.
Nolan Ryan
Jamie Moyer says hello.
Giant: I’m sure the same was said of Verlander before, well…ya know. The end of his arm will be the end of his arm; nobody can predict when that will be for a pitcher.
TheCoffinNail: Nolan Ryan?
Pay him whatever he wants… good way to never win anything regardless of how talented the player is.
YANKEES
I don’t think he wants to go there.
Yankees avoided him like the plague the first go around. If it hadn’t been for Boras “relationship” with the Nationals he would have had to settle for a one year because of his ask. The rest of baseball but especially the Red Sox/Yankees shat the bed on him. Too many questions about durability he proved wrong. I doubt he gives them the benefit of the doubt and I bet it will take a blow everybody else out of the water type contract for either team to sign him. My guess he stays a Dodger. They have proven time and time again they will go all out to sign players that have proven themselves to be contributors with them. Rich Hill and Chase Utley being recent examples. Doubt anyone else offered close to what they got. No he will retire in Dodger blue.
It’s a LOCK, Cincinnati Reds!
I would love to see Steve Cohen pony up and the Mets sign him to a four year deal
They have to pay Cano next year.
I believe the Mets we’re one of the teams he had on his list of not to be traded too.
Are the Dodgers on the hook for any money to Bauer next year? If not I’m sure they’ll just give that to Max.
Depends on how long MLB suspends Him for. If they give him a full year, then ko.
Bauer is getting paid this year and presumably the next depending on how his situation takes shape. Either way, that money shouldn’t be a factor as he won’t ever wear a Dodgers uniform again. Dodgers need to do as they do.
If they have to pay Bauer $35m or whatever next year I have a hard time seeing them pay another $35m to Scherzer.
So you expect them to cut him and eat the remaining money owed?
I expect them not to pay Scherzer unless they can void Baurer’s deal or he’s suspended all year.
They can’t void Bauer’s deal.
I would assume not, or else they would have already. Kershaw needs a new contract too. How much money are they going to spend on three pitchers?
They can’t even release them if they wanted to. They have to pay the entire contract as a buyout. He has some weird language in the contract that will let him sign a deal with any team he wants as a free agent if he is released. Not the usual league minimum and dodgers pick up the rest.
Don’t forget about T. Turner and Seager as wel (if they decide to re-up Turner after next season and re-sign Seager).
No way they spend money on Seager when they already have Turner and Lux. Nor is there any way Seager, who has expressed an interest in playing just shortstop, stays.
Dodgers are going to do Dodgers things.
Probably facing a lengthy suspension and they would not have to pay him while he is suspended but once his suspension expires they will still have to pay the remainder of his salary. Anyone who thinks Bauer is opting out is delusional.
MLB will suspend Bauer without pay for 2022. Bet on it. The players union and commissioner will both agree to it. The Dodgers have done too much to advance the salaries of players and nobody wants them on the hook for Bauer’s $45M.
@bucsfan0004 They would still have to pay him for 2023.
Look at the types of deals Friedman has been willing to hand out. A short term high AAV is right in his wheelhouse. Max is going back to the Dodgers.
Payroll will be back in order, too. Friedman is a master at managing such things. Bauer was a stunner, though. It’s not something you’d expect from Friedman and I’m wondering where it really came from.
Championship Title F you money?
Most teams spend big in some way post title. It’s just a matter how they spend
angels for $120/3 plus a mutual option. let’s go angels!
Kershaw just left the game with what looks like his elbow issue again. Scherzer will be a Dodger next year.
Max may not pitch for Dodgers again this year though…
Why would Scherzer not pitch for the Dodgers again this year? At the very least, he will be the SP in the wildcard game.
Look at Seattle. They have the money and need a solid vet in the rotation.
The next Scott Boras free agent this front office signs will be the first.
West Coast team huh. Let’s see.
Angels no pitching ever meddlesome owner GM no experience.
A’s Bahahaha their entire payroll would be what his salary is.
Giants doubt they would spend that kind of dough at this time in building.
Mariners, nope probably doesn’t want to learn 75 players names thru out the year with Dipoto.
Padres even funnier than the A’s. Preller is the 2nd worse GM in baseball. Doesn’t have a clue in what direction he wants to go and only overpays for old Royals scrub castoffs. Hosmer and Myers. He will be a Dodger.
Yep. If Scherzer wants to win, he’s in the best spot he can be. Look at Betts. Had it not been the Dodgers, he would have tried free agency.
Or a Giant. It really depends IF the Giants want him, they have more room to spend then the Dodgers.
I think Max want to go home somehow. He grew up in the St. Louis metro area and was rooting for the birds on the bat, so he might want to demand for a trip to St. Louis. By the way, St. Louis is also a contender every year.
The Cardinals are a good ballclub and organization, but the Dodgers have been averaging 100-plus wins for five years with no end in sight. Scherzer is no dummy. He has been a Dodger for a couple of months and knows how the franchise operates. Prying him away will be a tall order if the Dodgers want to keep him.
When he was young and debuted there was a lot of concern about his arm motion and fears that he would burn out quick. Talk about beating expectations! He is truly amazing on a talent/makeup level as well as a physiological level as Verlander was.
I think he is best suited as a dodger. I listened to Jeff Passan on Seattle’s flagship station sayin that the Mariners should go hard for him. They have a lot of money to spend. I can not even come close to seeing that happen but was surprised with Passans enthusiasm.
“The games lowest spenders can be safely ruled out.” Come on, Mr. Franco. It should read, “due to the lack of equitable revenue sharing, many teams aren’t willing to invest that much money for one player. An injury or poor performance would be crippling.”
Something is physically wrong with Max right now IMO. Not the same pitcher the last few outings.